tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg October 1, 2021 7:00am-8:00am EDT
♪ >> the fed is clearly in control. the buy yield should go up. >> the demand is there. the indications as we are seeing the re-engagement in the economy start. >> expectations are rising. >> because of higher cpi, you can pass those on to the consumer. >> even though the growth and income may slow, the growth in spending will not slow as much. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: new quarter, same problems. this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv. your equity market -14 off the lows, down one third of 1%. goodbye, q3, tk. tom: we have to line up the ducks for the fourth quarter and
there's a lot of things to worry about. the wall of worry is not so much about inflation but what inflation does to corporate america. jonathan: under two weeks from earnings with jp morgan. corporate america has some explaining to do. tom: it will be in the conference calls. no one will pay attention to revenue, it may be you get a nominal gdp surprise, but i will take the point that they will be in selected sectors, some margin mysteries. jonathan: revenue falls to the bottom line. lisa: how much has been priced in? we've seen pockets of real selloff among a number of big tech players. you wonder if that is more with bed, bath & beyond. jonathan: could you go through the schedule for d.c.? lisa: basically a lot of phone calls, people having discussions. i wonder what the tenor of those discussions is, is it, i will
give you this or that, or, this is potentially catastrophic for our party? jonathan: a lot of guys come off. down one third on the s&p 500, negative one third of 1%. on the nasdaq, down 2/10 of 1%. euro-dollar 1.8254. in crude, -9/10 of 1%, 74.37 on wti. >> we get data on spending from early august and the expectation is of a decline on the heels of last fiscal stimulus. the idea of the runoff of the fiscal cliff. we will be getting the pce core deflator in flat -- index. the expectation is for it to decline just a touch but still on pace to be well above 3.5% to year end.
10:00 a.m., university of michigan's consumer sentiment survey. this is actually at the lowest going back to 2011 and is expected to stay there and a lot of it has to do with the inflation. we will also get the ism manufacturing print, a reflection of that. i'm watching the sentiment around buying a car, cratering to the lowest ever. inventories are sky high and people do not want to buy a car. a year over year decline of 25 percent, this highlights how if you don't have supplied, people cannot buy it, it takes a cramp out of gdp. how much is this accounted for? jonathan: is it profit lost or deferred? for some of these companies. lisa: a lot of people are saying services side will not come back
because you cannot create the experience. goods have been on a tear and the issue is the supply chains. it goes straight to the heart of economic uncertainty. tom: the s&p 500 down -- jonathan: the s&p 500 down almost 5% from last month. tom: you have $80 on brent crude. pull back to 77.85, but you have to frame out on supply and on demand. maybe the global economy will do what -- do better than the gloom of 1.8%. maybe you get to $100 a barrel. is that a bad thing or does it signal a global boom? jonathan: depends on what is driving it. let's get to sarah hunt. how much room for error is there? sarah: i think this is a tough one and people are looking for margins, looking to see what's going on, on the cost side
revenue will be important but it is how it goes through the bottom line that people will start worrying about as you get more information about how the prices are affecting bottom lines. also, what people think going forward. to the point about the auto situation, that may help 2022 in a way we were not expecting when we thought supply chain issues would be easily fixed. to some extent, some of that pullback on the goods side may help 2022. lisa: people say this will pass and supply change disruptions -- supply chain disruptions will be healed. does this have to do with fixing the shortages or is it simply because we expected to ease as people buy less and stimulus wears off? sarah: i think there's an expectation that supply chains that were being crimped because of covid and shortages of labor
will ease. if this doesn't happen, then you will have a bigger problem on the inflation side because this is showing up at the moment. the expectation is that this will start getting better and that will help 2022 on the good side because you will have the ability for the demand to be satisfied. where you cannot buy a car now, you should be able to in six to 12, 18 months, and that may boost 2022 when people were worried that all of the snapback would come in 2021 after we got vaccines. that clearly didn't play out the way people expected. tom: bloomberg intelligence trying to guesstimate iphone sales units and the streets way wrong, iphones selling white cupcakes, up 6% over consensus, whatever. do i look at the walls of worry as a market hole, or sector
specific into a bar bowl strategy of a stock -- barbell strategy of stocks to avoid and stocks to do well? sarah: there are different drivers in each piece of the puzzle. to the extent that reopening stocks did well like the airlines very early on, you have to worry about the service sector and those areas connected to travel and leisure and things people are still constrained from doing. on the other site, where people were expecting the technology would do less well, i'm not sure that's true either. apple is a combination of technology and consumer projects, but some of the larger technology stocks that were hurt originally in the reopening trade, there's room for that group to do well and they have more pricing power than other areas. we look at things like united pacific and dollar general, things on the economy but the softer reopening we got will benefit through next year.
jonathan: there's a difference between companies that have an issue of profit lost and others, profit deferred, and i'm trying to work out a playbook. names will get hit hard by the stories we've been discussing. which names do we buy on the weakness? sarah: we were talking about that internally the other day because i think it is a little early on the auto side, but you will have production come back. i think it's a little early. the seasonality for the semiconductors on the analog side like texas instruments or adi, those are places where we saw weakness. those are good quality companies and we would not be -- we would be looking at those. jonathan: really good conversation, a couple of weeks away from earnings season, joining us from alpine woods capital investors portfolio manager. george cell of -- george
saravelos -- gangbusters eight happening, stagflation instead. i struggle with that word, stagflation, the stag piece of it. 4.1% real gdp growth, is stacking called 4.1 -- stagging 4.1% real gdp growth? tom: it is the defensive move. in defense of lawrence summers, it is not so much the number when you plug in inflation and the lack of growth. it is the change from where we were, the behavioral shock of having 1% or 2% inflation and all of a sudden 3.9% or 4.1% in germany. that's a change, is what stan fischer would say. jonathan: it is the journey, decelerating growth. tom: listen to you. jonathan: trying to make it more simple and understandable.
isn't that what emma rada cotta said question mark -- through inflation dynamics persisting into next year, it may feel like something tricky. stagflation is not necessarily the destination, in the words of mohamed el-erian. tom: i thought you were going to say some philosopher. dr. mohamed el-erian would agree with me. jonathan: he's joining me later. tom: it's like the tots, it's a journey. lisa: let me tell you about this journey. george saravelos basically said the way the backdrop has been as a rotation from reflationary in the first half of the year two definitely stagflationary now. it is the whole idea -- talking to the journey -- of moving into a time where all the inflationary input slowed growth. that dynamic stagflation, not
necessarily in terms of the headline number. jonathan: the journey, this is chapter through -- chapter two. we are down by nine points on the s&p, recovering a little bit, -2/10 of 1%. yields unchanged, 1.4823. a stability act as we kick off q4. tom: in your introduction to drawdown meditation, do you really mention journey three times? jonathan: life's a journey, tom. lisa: what are you drinking? can i have some? tom: here's the demarcation -- kids, yes. no kids, journey. lisa: [laughter] absolutely. jonathan: not about what you are drinking, either. tom is usually loitering around 4:00 smoking something. tom: press echo. -- prosecco.
jonathan: this is bloomberg. ritika: i am ritika gupta. house democrats went home last night without voting on the $550 -- $550 billion infrastructure. nancy pelosi will try again. it is being held up by a fight between moderate and progressive democrats. progressives will not vote until the full $3.5 trillion spending bill passes both houses of congress. president biden signed a stopgap funding to avert shut down, keeping spending levels flat until december 3. it did not resolve the threat of u.s. default linked to the debt limit. treasury secretary janet yellen said if congress does not raise the debt ceiling, the government may not be able to pay its bills. global energy crisis hit a milestone with european natural
gas prices rising. europe is struggling to find enough coal and gas. a new covid antiviral pill by merck reduces the risk of hospitalization or death by 50%, including -- according to an interim analysis. mark will seek -- merck will seek and a mirth -- emergency use authorization. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
decisions, it is necessary to additional -- necessary to issue additional debt, it is destructive to put the president and myself, treasury secretary, in a situation where we might be unable to pay the bills that result from those past decisions. jonathan: secretary yellen from new york city, good morning. your equity markets softer by two points, fall recovery. unchanged on the s&p. the nasdaq up 0.04%. euro-dollar positive at 1.1590. we kick off q4, after a really ugly month of september. tom: for the government of the united states of america, a wrigley -- a really ugly month. annmarie hordern, and
washington, as she and the pandas assist in avoiding the shutdown. we need to go to the panda cam showing some excitement, with an urgent and the background sleeping, and they are walking like i walked to the set -- there we go. lisa: this is real action. tom: slough -- walking really slowly to the set is jin jin i believe. the shutdown of the panda cam, what really happened? annmarie: they stop -- they passed the stopgap funding measure but this is only until early december. tom: december 3. annmarie: this will be a repeat to make sure the government stays open, employees get paid, and the panda cam continues. tom: what do we do december 3? do we just redux this in 45, 50
days? annmarie: they need a budget and knots what they are working on in this resolution, framework to budget. avoiding a shutdown, there can always be stopgap funding measures. the real drama on capitol hill is about whether or not we are going to get that bipartisan infrastructure vote today, like speaker pelosi said she -- said we would. she promised a vote last night, yesterday, and on monday, so it is a precarious situation as they work out whether to get the progressives on board. they are still holding bipartisan infrastructure, that plan hostage until they get some kind of agreement on reconciliation. jonathan: what does that vote decision depend on? we saw it monday and yesterday, what does it depend on? annmarie: progressives have said clearly they will not vote for the hard infrastructure unless there is a vote in the senate on record deletion. that seems to be watered down a
little bit and there seems to be some openness to a framework. what you had yesterday is a number of meetings going on between the progressives and moderates in the house and speaker pelosi, but also the white house getting involved, shifting between the chambers of schumer, pelosi, meeting with kyrsten sinema and joe manchin. there is a lot of negotiations. $2 trillion. senator joe manchin and senator kyrsten sinema, but they are shortening everything here because things are moving fast. the crux of it is $2 trillion and that's the gap. they are far apart. jonathan: senator manchin making the point that they should campaign on that in the midterms, if they want the extra
$2 trillion. annmarie: progressives say they have been campaigning for years and finally have control of the senate, house, and the white house, executive branch, so they want action now. they don't want to wait until the midterms of next year. also, another talking point of the progressives as they want to make sure they can keep their seats next year and the house. every seat is up. they want to go back to their constituents and say, i delivered on childcare and climate and universal pre-k and the like. lisa: just to sort of sum up, yesterday was a historic day only with respect to the infrastructure spending but the testimony by janet yellen and jay powell. janet yellen took a hard stance. she wants to get rid of the debt ceiling and she was talking about the catastrophic consequences for the u.s. dollar and the preeminent see of the economy should the u.s. default. is this a realistic supposition?
annmarie: it is not realistic in the short term. we are facing that x date of october 18, morgan stanley says maybe october 28, but there has been real talk and this is bipartisan. when either party is in control, none of them want to deal with the debt ceiling, so there has been talk of minting the coin, but this is a long discussion. maybe just give the power to the treasury to lift the debt ceiling when they come up to these points when there is a default on the u.s. debt. lisa: there is an increasing pull is asian -- politicize asian of the fed. joe manchin would like to see the federal reserve taper its monthly bond purchases before voting on additional spending. how commonplace is that sort of idea among other members of
senate and congress? annmarie: have not hurt anyone else talk about this -- heard anyone else talk about this and not sure you can legislate that the fed is a political. -- apolitical. potentially what joe manchin meant was he wanted to see the fed move towards tapering before they started spending trillions of dollars, but there's no legislation congress can do to control the fed. tom: nobody cares. i'm watching the tots. john is watching -- i don't know what lisa is watching. lisa: the panda cam. the red sox and the yankees. tom: do the yankees need goalie -- joey gallo? annmarie: yes. tom: this is magic. annmarie: we are first for the wild-card spot and i believe the red sox are tied with -- not
sure who it is. we are in a very good place. jonathan: the blue jays. tom: good morning, seattle. thrilled to have this seattle man erin are -- seattle mariners fans with us. jonathan: you will never hear from her again when they start to do badly, annmarie hordern. producer jamie just sent in email -- retailers like walmart, costco, and dick's sporting goods have not seen the worst of the supply chain and freight inflation. at the same time, sales are decelerating, that from morgan stanley. a warning. tom: they are, but the ebitda margin on dick's sporting goods's half of the big money makers in television -- dick's sporting goods half of the big money makers. bed, bath & beyond, of course they got hammered. jonathan: i don't know of course
♪ jonathan: remind me not to get involved in major league baseball banter. i am told the red sox are tied with the mariners, not the toronto blue jays. they are in the other corner. i appreciate that. from new york city, good morning. the price action, posited by more than 1/10 of 1%. -- positive by more than 1/10 of 1%. the russell up about 1/10. morgan stanley repeated yesterday, corporate america has some explaining to do when it comes to margins. earnings season will be fascinating, q3 as we look ahead to q4. credit suisse and andrew garth with a fantastic note, talking about the only major sector to
outperform when inflation expectations rise and pmi's fall, energy. look at the outperformance, 11 percentage points higher over the last month. tech down 5%, 6%, 15, 16 percentage points energy relative to tech. that's a monster move. tom: i wonder what you do on sell side versus what we see from the strategists looking for higher oil prices. jonathan: we've got to have that discussion. 11% on the month, remarkable. on the treasuries, up 18, 20 basis points for the month of september. basically unchanged this morning at 1.4858 read -- 1.4858. . still to come, from the federal reserve and ecb, an interesting meeting from the ecb will be december but for the federal
reserve, early november. tom: we will see earnings and see where we are. my problem is we paint q4 because we are doing it in a huge arc, tweeting everything the same -- treating everything the same. jonathan: we've been talking about this for how long? it is so well-known. tom: there is a shock. jonathan: plenty of shock on bond yields. tom: do you agree that a four point 1% inflation statistic in germany, that's a shock? jonathan: it gets your attention. does it change policy at the ecb? tom: no. jonathan: that's what matters, the reaction function of the ecb versus the federal reserve and how you push that through the fx market. real yield about 1.49. that's across asset action. good morning to romaine bostick.
romaine: merck shares higher by about 3% as it has been working on a pill to treat covid-19 patients. it says that pill reduces hospitalizations and deaths by about 50%. it is seeking immediate emergency authorization. this would effectively allow people with mild cases of covid-19 to treat themselves at home for presumably less cost than the hospital. micron shares higher on the day there was interesting commentary about the supply chain issue, saying they will persist into next year, however they are doing what they can to work with their customers to get that under control. lords town motors, the big ev maker, still trying to come to market. they bought a big gm plant in 2019 and they are flipping that back on the market, the foxconn. this really isn't necessarily a
cash positive deal, but it gets an investment out of foxconn and unless it diversifies the risk of manufacturing ev's, this is a big deal. foxconn, there is a lot of speculation about apple and its ambitions with regards to a car. a couple of other movers, this is the mna space. zoom and five9 were supposed to combine and immediately met a lot of resistance from regulators because of concerns about ties to china. whether those were justified or not, what killed the deal was a drop in zoom share prices. tom: what is five9? romaine: it is like a call center, but like modern. it was going to be a big company, but shareholders basically rejected it. this is largely because this was an all stock transaction and the stock is down 26%. tom: what about draftkings?
romaine: there are a ton of pending deals, all stock deals, and people are concerned given the drawdown in the market, some deals could be under pressure. draftkings has two deals that are cash and stock combined. drop in a lot of the shares. keep in mind, something like 70% of the members in the russell 1000 were in the red and the most recent quarter. $597 billion worth of deals pending. tom: romaine bostick, "the close." jane foley is known for writing british paragraphs that are longer than american paragraphs, but she writes exceptionally terse, brilliant notes on the ebbs and flows of -- she has to worry about business transactions, investment, and speculation. there senior foreign exchange
strategist. i love your quantification of speculation in the australian dollar. what is the speculation entering q4 in u.s. dollar, in yen, in euro? jane: it is all one way, pushing back into the u.s. dollar. we've got to include emerging markets into your question because what we often see in the dollar, what we always see in recent years is that when risk appetite is low and people do not want to invest, the dollar does well. if we look now on the headwinds to emerging markets, we've got energy price increases, the fed potentially hiking interest rates in 2022, and the slow down in china. these will be pushing money back into the u.s. dollar. tom: can there be a big figure move in indonesia, poland, turkey? jane: all of these are going to
be vulnerable in this environment. energy prices tend to have a bigger impact and the huge quantity that we have seen in gas prices will have an impact. there is different parameters here. we've got to look at which ones are energy export of and those will do well in the same way that you are describing the energy firms, anyone who wants to do well in this environment. the energy exporters will do well and the aussie will have a little relief, as well those em countries. energy prices are a big drag on real incomes. it is something which is really going to make people pour into this sector, not the sort of inflation central banks respond to. lisa: this is the conundrum way here, it is not necessarily something central banks respond to, however the ecb's hand might
be called as a result of inflationary pressures from energy and supply chain disruptions, and the fact that increased ability to buy will only exacerbate this. at what point do you see this pressuring the euro stronger and the dollar weaker, given that the higher inflation print will have an impact on central bank policy? jane: i don't think we are talking about higher rates from the ecb for really sometime. this is a story for the dollar and other central banks. not the ecb. if we look at the headwinds and yesterday's german unemployment data, it improved but not at the rate that people were expecting. germany's exports are tied to china and we know china is slow. part of china's industrial district has shut down because of electricity shortages. germany is facing the headwinds. we have an inelastic demand for
energy and it is hard to shift that in the short term. higher energy prices respond to lower demand and that could pull economies into a weaker position which could be a concern for central banks in the new year. jonathan: what happens to a developed market can -- market currency when a central bank needs to hike due to economic weakness? is sterling a decent example? jane: sterling really is. we've seen hawkish commentary from the central bank not coming through to gains for the currency. this could be because the u.k. has a significant current account deficit that may be increasing the vulnerability because as international investors look in, they want to see the whole suite of fundamentals. what they are seeing now is nasty numbers of fuel price
shortages, drivers shortages, skill shortages, and these concerns are weighing on investment expectations. you see that in the survey from the u.k. institute direct. jonathan: jane, great to catch up. jane foley, it has been too long. senior fx strategist, cable back through one third -- 1.35. positive this morning by about one half of 1%. tom: one of the great charts off the bloomberg is straight waited -- trade-weighted sterling and we forget that through brexit, once, twice, three times we visited major weakness in trade-weighted sterling. we've had a nice advance, not meaningful, but a nice lift in sterling. do we go back down and revisit? jonathan: something really important, what happens with a
developed market currency when it becomes disconnected from interest rates because a central bank has to hike during economic weakness because of price pressure. i've got no idea what next year looks like. that's my view, this range of outcomes. the situation we have to explore in fx. tom: is the u.k. the new em currency? do you believe that? jonathan: that is a question. that does not imply. lisa: all of these things, don't send hate mail. jonathan: my friend from the city of london, i know what happens when he asks that question. it is almost the weekend. euro-dollar 1.16. futures up. tom: mayfair. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news , house speaker nancy pelosi
will try again to get a vote on the infrastructure bill that's been held up by a fight between moderate and progressive democrats over the economic agenda. progressives vowed to stall the bill if the house and senate do not go forth on a spending package worth as much as $3.5 trillion. one out of four companies have imposed a vaccine mandate to u.s. workers, a sharp increase. that's after president biden's directly ordering large employers to require shots or weekly testing. daimler will vote whether to split off the truck division of mercedes. to react specifically to industry trends. inflation in the euro area rose faster than higher.
they rose at an annual rate of 3.4% in september. the core rate which takes out volatile components, increased 1.9%, a rate not seen since 2008. investors are turning their back on high tech stocks. the arc innovation etf, almost $2 billion left through late september and would have attracted billions of dollars after tech trounced market. global news 24 hours a day, on air and quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
inflationary pressures and supply chain issues. you are starting to see that it is not a manageable issue anymore and investors are trying to sort out, is this a broader issue for the equity market, or specific companies starting to stumble? tom: the head of equity strategy at rbc capital markets. good morning, tom keene, lisa abramowicz, and jon ferro. it is a round-trip in the equity market, deeply negative to positive. -19 to positive 19. yields unchanged, up maybe half a basis point. euro-dollar slightly stronger euro, 1.16 -- 1.1597. the stoxx 600 was down by almost 1.6% thereabouts. now negative just 0.6%. the team at bloomberg doing a
lot to get -- publishing happening on the south side, turning negative on european equities in the stoxx 600, cutting from neutral. they are shifting from a goldilocks to an anti-goldilocks scenario, that's been the discussion this morning. if those notes are piling up, this sounds like a capitulation. what do you want to do with that? just what it feels like. tom: they relaunched for the fourth quarter and we will sear -- we will see what happens on that in november. ira jersey with us, bloomberg intelligence chief strategist and football prognosticator. what do you glean from the spread market and which spread
matters? ira: i'm right now looking at the five year versus the 30 year curve, because the five-year will give us hints as to the path and case and timing of when the federal reserve will start hiking, because they will probably hike at some point, but a lot of uncertainty about when and how fast. i think right now, the five-year to 10 year sector has been underperforming along the curve. the 30 year sector still shows a lot of demand for duration and still a global hunt for yield. the u.s., among the more liquid, deeper government bond markets, is still the high yield or. -- yielder. lisa: we are on journey friday where we discussed the big picture, and i want to know the consequence of what could be the worst year for global bonds going back to at least 1999,
according to a bloomberg index. i wonder whether this is the best news possible, because it has been a bond selloff that has been completely unremarkable and not shaking fundamental optimism about the long-term outlook. do you agree? ira: i don't know how optimistic the market is. it is saying disaster will not be maintained. when you think about how this year developed, a big selloff in january and february when yields went from 60 basis points up to 1.75 percent on the 10 year yield. then we retraced about half of that so we are trying to find a new equilibrium based on the paradigm of uneven but ok growth, a federal reserve that's going to and seems to be sticking with their new framework, so they might not hike until a little bit longer than the market is currently pricing, but one that is going to taper. lisa, you've been tweeting about
this on and off for the past couple of months, $1.6 trillion in the fed's reverse repo facility, all of the cash the fed is printing by doing q. week is getting recycled -- qed is getting recycled back to the fed because the economy does not need the money. the equilibrium we are finding is a range we might be able to stay in for the rest of the year. lisa: when we talk about how every dip is viable in equities -- buyable in equities. why is this time different? ira: i don't know that it is different but when you think of the long-term, 40-year downtrend in yields, there are still cycles that occur. some of our research is focused on that so when you think about cycle versus trend, every single dip has been buyable, but some
have taken two years to develop with 10 year yields 2% above the trend. we are not there until we get to about 2.5%, so we still have a significant potential selloff to go to where we potentially get within the interest rate cycle. tom: i know you hang on our every word, but because of jon ferro, we are studying the journey of q4. ira jersey, one of the great jerseys going on right now is maddie cash. this kid has come up and gotten it done. how big of a threat is he to the tots? ira: he has a pretty mean cross and playing with the other target on the other side, those guys are underappreciated stars. they've been playing very consistently so i think that's one of the same things for soccer players, how consistent
can they be rather than how great or spectacular can they be. tom: that would be the tots you are discussing. these guys are like 19 years old. jonathan: they are above in the leak. doing ok. i never thought we would get to this point where you would be bringing up the football. tom: i didn't bring it up. mervyn king just emailed. jonathan: what did he say? tom: you've got to bring up matty cash. he says they are not going to raise rates. jonathan: where? do you want to clear that up? or just make something up? just be very specific and clear about that. tom: i did speak to chair yellen on the shutdown. jonathan: i don't think you even want to pretend you've done that. mike wilson will join us later.
he is looking for a 10% move, base case, and leaning toward something bigger. we get the lien in just a moment -- lean in just a moment. tom: everyone on the street sounds like lisa abramowicz. jonathan: i have seen no after no. sounds like southside capitulation. lisa: joined by journey. you've already seen so much of a drawdown in specific stocks. what is being priced in -- and you keep pointing rightly so to bed, bath & beyond. that would explain the more than 20% move in a company that some say seems like it is in the crosshairs with supply chain issues. jonathan: same with nike, analysts called it. the numbers drop that the stock reacted to it. mike wilson coming up, a man to listen to. equity markets turning around.
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