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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  September 2, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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europe. this is bloomberg markets: european close with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: thursday the second, 30 minutes to the close. inflation continues following a hot number. a former ecb chief economist is going to join us this hour. the european medicines agency says there is no urgent need for widespread covid-19 booster shots but authorities should prepare for them to be administered. no shots, no problem. a ceo says staff who do not want vaccine -- the vaccine can apply to work from home. let's look at where we are with equity markets.
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and the head of payrolls number -- that ahead of the payroll number tomorrow. where we are releasing the action is -- alix: a lot of investment opportunities are garbage. you are looking and investor loss of 3%. equity earnings have got to lift up for that. goleman sachs says the market is too worried about delta outbreaks and still like cyclicals. on the one hand, you get safety. the nasdaq up a book -- about .3%. yields, nowhere. we are looking at a complacent -- are we ready for tomorrow?
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where is the asymmetric risk with the jobs number tomorrow? guy: people are definitely holding their breath waiting for that number. given the range, it has potential to have a serious impact on equities. eurozone data continues to come in as well. the inflation metrics are coming through strongly. we had cpi earlier this week. the ppi number today accelerating more than anticipated. with the details, ritika gupta. ritika: even more from the euro zone. it is that ppi data, soaring through the month of july. up to .3% from the previous month. a lot of it from a year ago is down to the effect, but it does show you how a lot of the recovery and demand is hitting those supply chains. a big part of it is coming from energy, those prices up 29 --
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28.9%. the issue here is the risk. it continues to feed through into retail prices. 3%, the highest in a decade. we know the ecb is went to talk about this. you need to taper sooner rather than later. alix: more with how this is impacting the market, thank you very much. you have ppi rising. you have hawks speaking out aggressively over the last few days before that ecb meeting. what is your take of what is going to happen next thursday and where is the balance of risk in the equity market? >> the point you just mentioned prior to this is fond markets
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seem to be little impressed by all this. as an equity investor, it surprises me. i think there is a bit of risk to the upside there in terms of hawkish and us from central bankers. you see it being pretty much a high level not seen in 20 years. i think if the tone is too hawkish in might unsettle markets a little bit. we are comfortable right now. we see good growth, low interest rates. that bodes well for equities. this is what equity markets thrive on. guy: do european equities upper form because the ecb is going to
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stay dovish for longer than the fed? >> that could happen. i think the fed is further ahead than the ecb. we think somewhere in november there will be mentioning that is implemented the month after. behind that, it will not do anything that soon and i think you still have this tailwind for european equities. alix: where in cyclicals you want to go? maarten: i think we have seen weakness and materials over the last two months. they kind of traded sideways or lower. materials have been affected by the fact that there was worries about chinese growth and the strong measures that china takes whenever there is a covid case. that kind of disrupts many
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things. i think we will see a gradual improvement. we will look at that and price action as well. china is going to come up with some benefits for smaller or medium-sized companies and more infrastructure spending. these things will bode well for european material stocks. after having had a pause for a month, month and a half, underperforming the broader market, when growth basically is confirmed to be strong still in the u.s. and china, it is a good place to be. guy: in that scenario, do i shift away from french stocks and the pushback we are getting from beijing against consumption, large companies, wealth to the dax? is that a shift i want to make in europe right now? maarten: we looked at a barbell
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approach, taking more risk on the cyclical side to make sure you own them because they have done well. they continue to do well. i think luxury stocks still look attractive. i think they can handle some pushback out of china. i do not think they are fundamentally impaired. so completely shifting out of one into the other might be too aggressive because you want to see that pickup of growth in china. you need to be moving with some caution because he want some confirmation. alix: but you need to rerate what kind of premium you are willing to pay for stocks because of exposure to china? maarten: true. that is true.
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even if you put them on a slightly higher premium so the risk is somewhat higher, i think it puts the board and the luxury space. it still looks attractive. -- in the luxury space. it still looks attractive. going completely out of that space would be too aggressive. guy: talking about the mix we have in europe, we are going to get a review announced for the dax tomorrow. we are going to shift and potentially some growth into the dax. we are going to balance that index for a little more. how does that change the attractiveness of europe? that becomes a more complete package, the dax, as a result of what is about to happen. as a pond manager that invests money, how do you perceive -- bond manager that invests money, how do you perceive what authorities are doing? maarten: that is a good thing to do. you want to make sure you are
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not a one trick pony as an index, so you want to have that. if you can bring quality companies to your index, to the equity market, that is good for investors. it makes you more attractive as a region for the outside world as well. u.s. investors, asian investors will look at europe and start to see there is more to it than just de facto cyclicals and financials and materials stocks. i think it is worthwhile that we see this diversification. guy: we will get the details tomorrow and see exactly what it looks like. great coverage coming up on that story. coming up as well, mario draghi says a third booster shot for italians.
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we are going to speak to a chief scientific officer and harvard medical school professor. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. a divided u.s. supreme court has refused to block a texas law banning most abortions after six weeks of pregnancy. justices turned away calls to put the law on hold. the law's opponents say the law will ban abortion for at least 85% of patients in texas. applications for u.s.
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unemployment benefits fell off and in a salute -- initial jobless offers -- jobless claims fell off. the report for august comes out tomorrow. the remnants of hurricane ida ripped through new york and new jersey. traffic was a mess and train service was suspended in manhattan's central park. more than three inches of rain fell in an hour. new york's governor and new york senator chuck schumer are giving a press conference now. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. alix: mario draghi is saying italy is considering a third covid shot and making vaccines compulsory. moderna is seeking authorization for boosters in the u.s. and europe. for more, our senior
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pharmaceutical analyst joins us now. is the conversation for you based on science now or politics question mark -- or politics? >> a bit of both. we have a situation here where i do not think we have come to a full conclusion as to whether we have a vaccine on our hanscom any of them, that are two does vaccines or three does vaccines. we know over time the antibodies that protect you against mildly infectious -- symptomatic infections fall. but, weather that then means countries have to follow the rule and say we are going to focus on that as opposed to severe disease is where politics come in. if that is where countries want to go, we are going to see booster shots for everybody as opposed to just those that absolutely need it. guy: are we in a position where
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europeans can deliver the message later than in the united states? it has been a bit of a hare and a tortoise europe has been the tortoise and has overtaken in terms of vaccines delivered. in theory, the support they are going to provide should last may through the winter. >> in theory you are right. whether you want to time in that precisely is the issue. if you look at the israeli data you are seeing it wayne -- wane within six months. maybe you wait to give a third shot. europe and theory is two to three months behind or ahead with regards to its immunity level. guy: great to catch up.
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greatly appreciated. let's carry on the conversation. joining us now is howard weiner, a harvard medical school professor focused on inuit to -- innovative therapeutics. they are also looking at oncology. we also have therapeutics we should talk to the professor about as well. thank you for your time today. let's jump in where sam left off. do you think we are in a position where we have enough immunity to get us through the winter or are we going to need a third shot to provide that? sonali: ultimately we -- dr. weiner: ultimately we need third shots. in our fight against covid, there are three weapons we have. number one is the vaccine. number two when you get it is these monte -- monoclonal antibodies.
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number three is dampening the immune system that goes out of control. that is where the nasal spray comes in with our positive results in brazil, just published in a new trial. it is clear covid is not going away and we need all three approaches. the nasal spray be given to people who are hospitalized. once you get it, you need to treat it. this is where the treatment comes in, but we need all three. alix: before we get to the treatment part, which is important as it seems we are going to be living with this, and terms of the extra boost, the extra vaccine, when do you think we need it? dr. weiner: probably six or eight months after your vaccination.
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guy: in terms of the full package, let's talk about what is happening with the vaccines and therapeutics. alix and i have talked to a number of health care professionals over the last few weeks and they are talking about the fact that we are under utilizing the therapeutics side of this response. if we do not give the third shot, are therapeutics good enough to get us through? when people do get breakthrough infections, if they do suffer from covid and it puts them into hospital, are we using monoclonal antibodies and other therapeutics enough to allow more people to survive where they would not have previously? dr. weiner: we are probably not using them enough. we talked about it in our hospital. you need therapeutics. you need the monoclonal antibodies.
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the exciting thing about the nasal spray is once you have the covid it can help you recover. one of the interesting things is the immune system. it plays an opponent role in all diseases. one thing that just happened that i'm excited about is to use the same monoclonal antibody that can be used for covid to help with cancer therapy because the immune system can go astray there. i know that to the on -- tiziana just closed a deal. this has -- is applicable to covid, which they are going to try. just now, the stock went up. it can be helpful for cancer. my message is the immune system is central to many of our diseases come out to covid, to
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cancer, and to other diseases. the head of the site -- as the head of the scientific advisory board at tiziana, it seems to be fitting into many places. alix: if you can use drugs and other areas as well, what about long-haul covid? we are starting to see disturbing stats. you can have long-term effects in parts of your body. how are you looking at that? in some ways it reminds me of cancer, where it is unique but persistent. how are you going to look at the treatment of long-haul covid the same way as other diseases like cancer? dr. weiner: the question is what causes any disease and how can you interrupt the process? long-haul covid is no longer infection by the virus but the immune system not working and inflammation.
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we have to treat with anti-inflammatory drugs and modulating immune system. the foralumab that tiziana has could help in long-haul covid. long-haul covid will be a problem and we need to be able to understand the inflammation and treat it. alix: howard, we appreciate it. good luck. we appreciate all the work. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash, a look at some of the biggest stories in the news right now. bloomberg reports the company
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rejected a $9.6 billion offer a month ago. it makes a wide range of hospital equipment, including patient monitors and electrocardiograph's. alibaba has become the latest tech giant to back off china's aim to share the wealth. the country's second largest company pledged $15.5 billion toward president xi's, prosperity vision. the money will be spread between investment and support for small companies. a bank wants to become the wealth management leader in asia. it has been criticized for publicly endorsing a beijing security law in hong kong. >> one of the jobs of an international bank is to comply with complex laws wherever they are. that complex d has increased. we will navigate that as we have so far and continue to do so going forward.
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ritika: you can watch that full interview on the bloomberg terminal starting at 5:00 p.m. new york time. start at 6:00 p.m. new york time, on bloomberg radio and tv amongst other platforms. guy: i think he has a huge challenge and it is interesting that we are basically seeing a focus on the wealth management side. you do wonder, given what is happening in china, what is going to happen without wealth. this real focus on the middle sized businesses, i wonder long-term what that will ultimately mean. there is considerable wealth in china. where is it going to end up? alix: i wonder. we have seen major investment banks try to get to the next tier of wealth, and i wonder if that is what president xi is also going to try to build up, in which case you can argue
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there would be more customers to work with. they might not be billionaires, but there will be a subset or there will be smaller pools to draw from. guy: is global wealth management going to the middle class? is the -- are the chinese pushing a middle-class? i am pretty sure they are. i think the margins will be different, particularly as wealth management at the lower end of the asset scale is becoming automated. alix: it will be volume pure and that is how you're going to make money. guy: i am looking forward to hearing what he has to say, the full interview coming up tomorrow. the european closes next. this is bloomberg. ♪ s bloomberg. ♪
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guy: ramping up the thursday session in europe.
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feels like monday. is that just me? a little bit about performance from the london market. up .3%. energy stocks on the front foot. prude trading higher -- crude trading higher. a huge day for the dax tomorrow. we will go from 30 stocks to 40 stocks. become less cyclical, introduce some growth. this has the real potential to change the session around what the dax is. at the moment cyclicality been the key driver. the stoxx 600 today going nowhere. we are at session highs. back into the mid-70's now. it has that small correction. it did not last long. then we pushed it back up. up around .4%.
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we have seen the energy price pushing back sharply on the back of the opec. energy up around 2%. more in the united states. they are comparable. travel and leisure. the bottom of the market come the real estate down .6%. telecom down .2%. energy at the opec narrative feeds into this. individual names, baron, huge house builder in the u.k.. number this morning were fairly good. the forward-looking indication a little bit softer. we have seen a huge amount of stimulus being generated by government schemes designed to boost demand.
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barrett -- still relatively elevated. there's an expectation we gotta get a special dividend. the stock one of the big losers on the u.k. market. let's take you to warsaw and cd projekt and gaming. cyberpunk 2077. the net income numbers strong today. this is a company that got beaten up by glitches and bugs and one of its main games, cyberpunk. also talking about the updates not being free which is consistent with what others are saying. the stock soaring. it is thursday, we are in the u.k.. bhp one of last dividends we will see. the stock down 4.5%. it is thursday and that is the net result.
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bhp gives you an idea that the energy stocks are strong. alix: money coming into china, iron ore prices. the other news out of the european union which we saw was what happened with pci. very strong numbers. july prices rising 2.3%, beating estimates across the board. estonia, ireland, belgium, all seeing a big rise, even germany seeing a rise of ppi. all that will impact the ecb policy discussion next week when the meeting happens. peter praet, ecb former chief economist joins us now. we've seen a lot of hawks come out. are the hawks in charge at the ecb? peter: i would not say that. you are right. i worried about inflation.
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we knew inflation would be higher. the bottlenecks we are seeing in manufacturing are much stronger than what we saw, and there is some -- it also means the central banks should look through the supply shortage. what worries me is when i look at the headlines in newspapers, countries like germany and france, the question of too much inflation is what you read in the newspapers. i worry it is going to give a lot of arguments for the governing council to say there is risk in terms of inflation. we should not forget the ecb is stuck with inflation and tries to get out of this. you get the supply shock. it is probably good news. i hope there'll be some
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transmission into wages so the ecb can exit early. if you start diving too early you have to get the opposite, something we had in 2011 when we increase the rates twice. inflation was about the same as today. the supply shock came from the oil prices. the tightening happened at a time when the economy was blinking. this time is a different situation. i think the ecb should follow its strategy, it's steady hand. there are supply pressures, but this would act all true is tickly and that should help them in reaching the objectives. guy: i think there $500 billion left in the envelope. should we carry on at the current pace until that has been used up? peter: when it goes to the importance of the quarterly payroll, if you look at the
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communication of the ecb, financial conditions will be easing. normally they should reduce the monthly pace of purchases to something between $60 billion and $80 billion. the problem is a number of governors have had hawkish communications. if they reduce the pace of purchases for good reason, that could be misread by the market as a hawkish move. they would reduce the pace of purchases and leave it to the executive board of the ecb to spend between 60 billion and 80 billion to preserve the easing conditions we have today. alix: i called it a mini taper
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tantrum. some said it was not even a tickle when we saw the btp rise 10 basis points. a question about wages. in the u.s. we have seen wages rise, whether in lower income or now investment banks. is the structure in europe the same? can we see the same kind of wage increases as quickly as we have seen in the u.s.? peter: that is a key question. in the u.s. there is an inflation risk. there is a risk. you have to be ready for that. if inflation proves to be higher than expected than there would be a big reaction. this point you have a big adjustment and asset prices on the bond market.
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for the ecb the question would be trying to shelter, trying to avoid the spillover from the u.s. that is the first point. the second point is the inflation situation in europe is quite different from the united states. when the covid shock came the economy was not performing very well. there was still a lot of slack in the economy. it is a very different situation from the u.s.. it seems to have gone relatively well compared to what was expected, but it is not a reason to change the policy, especially with the ecb strategy, which implies the persistence of monetary policy to reach the 2% objective. if it goes faster because of a supply shock, that would be fine. the pushes to be sure, to ensure the market adjustments -- i do
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not think we are in that situation. the wage bargaining in germany remains moderate. we see around 5% nominal, which is not the end of the negotiation. there's nothing special for the time being. a little wage inflation in europe would not be bad. guy: you talk about adjustments and the risk growing of a significant adjustment. you mentioned what is happening with the u.s. 10 year, 1.3%. a lot of investment bankers are scratching their heads over. what would cause such an adjustment? what would cause such a change in market thinking? at the moment the data are coming through relatively good. the market believes central banks will continue to do what they have been doing. what could change things? peter: it is a conundrum.
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i cannot understand the bond prices, especially the u.s. there may be technical questions, but i do not think that explains the situation. what might also happen, there are a lot of central purchases in emerging markets. also in the private sector. buying u.s. bonds, because the situation and a lot of emerging markets remains challenging. there may be some safe haven consideration on the old market. my guess is at some point there will be a correction because the u.s. economy is running very hot, inflation will persist. the fit will probably have to go a little faster than some people expect. there will be an adjustment on
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the bond market. in europe it is a quite different situation. the situation -- the economy is still below 2019 situation. we have not yet recovered the situation pre-pandemic. it is a very different situation. alix: what we have seen is inflation expectations in europe rise. peter: that is fine. they should not increase too much. what we see now is the case that consumer expectations are picking up, which is ok. the question is to see if there will be transmission.
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we have not seen that yet. that is something we wait for. if this succeeds faster -- if the ecb succeeds faster and raising its objectives, then the only thing would be to manage the adjustment of prices, as it prices in general -- asset prices in general. how do you do the transition? it is going to be bumpy. i think we are not there. guy: you talk about if we get there we have to manage this process quite carefully. the fed is at pains to point out the difference between tapering and hiking. do you think the ecb needs to start making that distinction as well? peter: there is a strong link in
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the guidance between the guidance of rates at the guidance of asset purchases. first you start purchasing and you taper and you stop before you increase the rate. when the ecb came in july by saying the interest rates will be low for a long time and then explained that has to be linked with observed underlying inflation and things like that. a number of conditions there. the governors did not like the fact that the market then said q. week would also be to factor -- qe would also be a factor for interest rates low for long. they wanted td couple and bring this -- they wanted to decouple and bring this mechanical link, little bit like what happens in the united states, what jerry pat -- what jay powell was
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saying in jackson hole. i would be very careful of this. i think the best for the time being and in the context of the german elections today -- the steady hand of the september meeting is what i would advise. then the big discussions will come in december on all of that. alix: our final question with you. i think the market needs to understand, are we at central-bank convergence or divergence? when you look at the fed and the ecb, are they much more convergent because the fed was able to delink taper versus raising rates or not? peter: no. we had in the guidance, which was part of the design, to say when you get out of this
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situation, you have given it on the long-term rates. you let the long-term rates evolve so you reduce and taper, you reduce the duration of the markets and you keep control of the short end of the curve where the midterm, the two to three years, and you try to keep control. once the situation changes the adjustment can be brutal. what can you control? i think central banks control the money market rates, and by the guidance they give, control up to two or three years, and the rest is more complicated to control. i would say tapering first where you let the yield curve steepen and you keep control on the short medium end of the curve. that was the design. now some governors want to raise
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and say qe could be stopped much before you increase the rates and some governors may be interested in adding some optionality. i would not mind that. i would continue with this guidance, and then later on you increase the rates. that is the end of discussion later in the year, not the september meeting. guy: may be the german election casting a long shadow over the upcoming meeting. peter: i think so. guy: always a pleasure to get your views in your analysis. extremely instructive. we greatly appreciate it. peter praet, ecb former chief economist. european stocks wrapped up, we are through the auction. the price of the ftse 100, 7174. london outperforming just a touch. we just has of news -- we just
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had some news, delivery hero talking about issuing a convertible. alix: on the u.s. east coast we are still trying to digest what happened with the storm of class 12 hours. these are unbelievable flooding images of new jersey. it is around patterson. cars surrounded. you can see the water is up halfway through the front door. you can only imagine how quickly the rain fell. there is tons of video all over this where you see stranded cars all over the place. in some cases the water higher, touching the bottom of the passenger and driver window. in some areas, there is nowhere for the water to go. how you get the water out? it has to be pumped out. unbelievable pictures of new jersey. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: you're looking at a live shot of the principal room. coming up, financial technology partners ceo at 2:00 new york time. this is bloomberg. guy: let's talk about what is happening with -- sorry, rather large bank on the other side of the studio -- european indices are getting rejiggering. the ftse 100 is a bit of a nonevent. just eat is out. apparently not british enough. dax is about to get its biggest makeover since 1987. we will get the details tomorrow. i think it will be huge and game changing for european equities. jp barnett joining us to give us
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his take on this. i will talk about the ftse in just a moment. let's talk about the dax. walk us through what is happening and why this will be so significant. jp: this started a year ago when we had the infamous wirecard collapse and it was decided they had to make changes to the dax because it was the first time a company filed for bankruptcy. they introduced a couple of changes, making companies provide quality statements and they have to post a profit for three years before they can join the index. they also decided they wanted to make the index finger and broader. that is what we will get tomorrow. new constituents to the index, adding $400 billion. among them are a couple of interesting growth names. the dax is touted as an old economy index with all of the industrial stocks, now we are seeing companies like the online
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retailers and hello fresh joining. it might get the index a tiny staff into the growth direction. alix: how much money do you think will have to change hands if there is recalibration in the index? jp: it is always hard to say. estimates are down about $20 billion in assets. we will see a lot of adjustments. we have one company saying 30% to 40% of the etf portfolio will need to turn around. adding to new members, but the existing ones will have less weight. given we have this a long time coming, companies had a lot of time to predict who is going in and going out. i am not sure if we will see wild moves within the stocks, but certainly if there is a
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surprise coming up tomorrow we might see a little bit of movement. guy: is it my imagination or does the ftse rejiggering strike you as a nonevent? alix: i was excited yesterday. i did a segment on it. guy: i do not know why anyone would be excited. you have meggitt going in and morrison going in. the reason why is they are both big targets and about to be taken out. they will go in and come straight out again. it seems crazy to me? jp: that is how it is. you have to have index rules and the roles go in and out. most markets there is no rule to say there is an imminent merger. they skip it. right now it is not the case. i agree with you. indexes are pretty large. those going in and out are at
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the lower end. it tends to be a nonevent. the takeaway is going up is kind of an event and that the british exchange decided the company is not british enough. a very stupid rule. it undermines their effort to attract growth companies to london. guy: they are saying it is dutch, basically, because of the way they have made changes that were meant to happen. as you say, we talk about the german market needing some of that growth narrative to be built into it. london is desperately in need of that. this pre-much undermines that. jp, great stuff, thank you were much. we will look forward to the details of what is happening tomorrow. we will get the details as they come out. what do we have that 24 hours? payrolls, but also biden is
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about to speak and i'm sure everyone is waiting to hear what he has to say. i suspect there'll be a lot of infrastructure conversation as part of the narrative served up by the president. alix: we heard chuck schumer pivot right to that when there was a press conference talking about the damage by ida. also boris johnson will be meeting with paratroopers later. you have broadcom, hp, and doc you sign. i think this is a stay-at-home stock which has legs versus oomph. -- versus zoom. guy, i will be off but you will be anchoring. guy: kailey lines will be here -- kailey leinz will be here. didn't you take last payrolls day off? ♪
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>> from the world of politics to the world of business, this is "balance of power" with david
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westin. ♪ annmarie: good afternoon from downtown washington. for tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to balance of power. i am and reorder alongside job -- i am annmarie hordern alongside joe mathieu in for david westin. will hear the president speak on ida. he is about 30 minutes late. joe: we'll hear from the president momentarily. the storm does speak to the unpredictability of the job. that is why it is the hardest job in the world. you're dealing with the withdrawal from afghanistan and then mother nature strikes. the president will be speaking to a lot of people in difficult situations. annmarie: very grim in louisiana. millions out of power.

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