tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg September 1, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT
>> 30 minutes into the trading day. welcome to bloomberg markets. there is definitely a little bit of a safety bid. if the adp came across as a pretty solid miss. the nasdaq, big tech leading the way. alix: we are looking forward to be opec plus meeting. at the country, can, is able. let's get to the adp. we get ism. coming in a little bit stronger than estimated. prices paid a little bit
lighter. pressure coming off a bit. a new orders very strong. a very good backlog in employment. it considering we've seen a lot of misses, this seems to be holding up pretty well and strong. it let's get more on those ism numbers. tim, we love doing this with you. give us some of the highlights. >> the devil is always in the details. we had a very strong month again. the demand side, orders, backlog is up near record highs. we had really strong demand. a little bit of signs of improvement. the story is more around production. alix: talk about what we are
seeing in europe. we don't have the stuff to make the things. definitely a supply shortage issue. >> that's exactly right. inventory topped off near 55, which is really good. you like to see it do that because the more material is delivered during the month, the suppliers do perform better as they have in the past three months. we think not only is a growing in the raw material side, it is probably growing in the work in process side because critical shortages are causing companies to not be able to finish. the consumption side output, employee levels contracted again. that's the bigger story. we are still struggling with employee and desk employment numbers. -- struggling with employment
numbers. we see the labor markets go back to a normal environment. i think that the best the delta development may delay that, maybe to the end of the year. entering the peak manufacturing season september october. alix: is it slipping because there aren't the workers, because workers want to get paid more? are workers going to do other stuff? are they worried about delta? all of those factors will explain. >> we still have a 8-1 higher --hire ratio. still trying to hire like crazy. it's not an issue of demand.
the problem, and we also reported 26% turnover for the month. with wages increasing, people are leaving jobs and moving for $.50, $.25. causing human wrote -- causing human resources to work harder. that's going to continue as wage inflation continues to grow. alix: the wage increase temporary or permanent? >> i never see wages come down unless you see a slap in the economy and there's no sign of that so -- ca s --see a slag in the economy and that there's no sign of that.
it's not like raw material prices follow that supply and demand profile. when you bring people on certain wages, you cannot take it down. i've -- a lot of our manufacturing panelists are getting exhausted from the wage increases. when you see the revolving doors of people coming in and out and now 24% turnover right -- turnover rate, and that's not good. alix: is there going to be some point where the new order gets eroded because it's the ability to not make things. we see things turn a little bit in europe, germany? >> i think it was 90 days.
it really long. but that causes people to do is agree to higher prices. that could be inflated in the new order number. i'm not going to give a lot of comments on that. if you took out the leadtime factor, you still be about 163. the next number -- alix: we love doing this with you. it's so important to understand the details. thank you very much. in terms of the market, bloomberg. index. equity indexed trying to get. s and p up. ism really didn't do much. all the stories. this is bloomberg. ♪
we haven't seen a payroll gain this small since the start of the year. it's really been a slow start of the summer. -- it's really been a slow summer. we have more closely watched payrolls coming in on friday which is what everyone's eyes are going to be on, especially for the fed. that report is going to be far more important than thence one -- than this one. alix: thanks very much. it looking forward to friday. let's get to the virus. some encouraging news. the pfizer booster shot added protection during delta outbreak. hey max, what are the numbers out of israel? >> this is a very early study on
their booster efforts comparing people who got a third shot comparing them to people who just got two of them. that is encouraging in some respects about the potential efficacy. i would note some caution. the first is this is exactly what you would expect. we still don't know if there is any effect on severe disease where protection of two shots seems to be high. if there are potential differences between the people who were the first in line to get boosters and those who are taking their time and waiting. difficult to control. encouraging but very early. i'm not sure that it's
necessarily good justification for a broad booster rollout. alix: where are we with a booster rollout? >> that so confusing question because abided administration has set a plan, but it requires approval. some doubts about whether either of those groups endorse the plan and the timeline in which they would do so. alix: thanks a lot. let's stay with the virus. impose travel curves on americans. 45 large businesses in the u.s., europe and asia show that 84% 10 -- intend to spend less on trips. -- eddie 4% intend to spend less on trips. --84% intend to spend less on
trips. >> and that is going to be bad news for airlines because it means that this sector of the market on which many network. alix: sarah, we are actually losing you. business travel could never be the same. when it comes to businesses and travel and airlines, etc. sorry about that connection. opec plus, ignoring the u.s. call for a desk for an increase. they are able to raise output above opec's quota. joining us executive entity for
energy and commodities. what is going on? >> the meetings are about to start at any moment. i spoke to the media before meeting. i didn't think he was firing warning shots or setting up a standoff. there have been some concerns that the industry has been stymied by the pandemic and isn't able to bring back toiled as fast as promised. production -- i think he is saying to the market, we can meet our commitments not that we are planning to go further. the deal is very much in place. i think this will be a meeting, all the key players will continue with the plan. there was some concern that the
spread of the delta variant meant that demands was going to take a hit, but that concern dissipated. alix: we will get you back to update us. return to the u.s., exit from afghanistan. afghan leaders say they will form a new government. >> we heard from the president yesterday. one of the key focuses is though remaining americans without a u.s. military presence in afghanistan. what happens to these remaining u.s. citizens who wants to get out? there's probably a lot of paperwork going on about who they can ring with them as they seek asylum and leave the country. the president has said that he was clear that no americans
would be left behind. when you look at the polls, there is concern among americans about not so much ending the 20 year war. the president said i was not prepared to extend a forever exit. it there is, the polls show americans are, it was unnerving to them. 43% agreed and three quarters wants to make sure that all americans get out. alix: thank you. we appreciate that. a quick market check. we are looking at a dow down not by 1/10 of 1%. the s and p in the green. oil still trading heavy. the ism coming in quite strong. the movement a little bit into
shareholders. the move opens the door for canadians to provide its own. making a mistake on a zoom call can be hazardous to your career. almost -- the survey also found fully trusts one third of their staff to perform tasks working remotely. fulfillment cylinders, the job includes lift drivers and management positions. alix: really pairs with ism was talking about. turnover is forcing employers to raise their wages.
we are also seeing that in white-collar jobs. working families raising the stakes in a wall street bidding war. the firm has bumped base pay for junior bankers. graduates no longer have to work on wall street to get a good starting salary. artificial intelligence and computer science as much as $300,000. that would be about three times the sticker price from college graduates. all of that contributing to pressure. you don't dock wages. the wage increases will be sticking. it big question is do they continue.
we are watching, crowd strike kept growing strong. that concern put to rest. >> crowd strike with their second fiscal quarter results. it did not do so well for the opening bell. they were down, but they really have come back. if you focus on anything, you want to look at something called annual recurring revenue. that's how you by --buy. go back a year and the number was closer to 90%. perhaps a bit of concern. there's still, 70% is a high figure.
he had the company raising forecast looking at earnings-per-share. you are talking about an increase of about 20% in their projection. you are looking at revenue. 1.4 billion dollars is what they are anticipating. 1.3 range before then. it has come up a bit. this is a company that has done really well over time. they went public in the june of 2000 -- the share set a record and they were up more than eight after that. -- they were up more after that. that may explain the resilience because all along you saw a fair
amount of optimism for this company and it shows that when you look at these price targets. alix: what about peers? are they keeping up? >> away to see that is to look at the nasdaq cybersecurity index. as it happens, crowd strike has the second in the index. we have seen those kind of shares do relatively well. you look at a company like check point software. both stocks are down, weighing on the group. alix: we are seeing a performance of text. whenever we see that, i see a
safety bid coming into the market. >> apple sort of jumps out when you think of big tech because when they release the latest version of the iphone and a few days ago you had the question of was a going to have satellite capability. it will be there, but only for emergencies. you've got people looking ahead to that and you are seeing apples peers moving up. alix: dave wilson joining us. crowd strike ceo coming up at 5 p.m. in new york. we are starting off the month in the green. adp numbers will continue to
provide that stimulus. it was about the disappointing adp that really changed the name. senior equity strategist will be joining us. if you take a look at the individual sectors, you are looking at utilities up. infotech still up. all of that feels very much like a safety bid. we had a selloff yesterday. today is a willing mix story. lull on the day bloomberg dollar. setting the fed up for a longer process of tapering. this is bloomberg. ♪
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s starting in the green after seven straight months of gains. abigail? >> it's really been quite a rally to the s&p 500 this year in the month of august. another gain of 3%. not so shabby. that is a record through january -- of january through september. that is led to an average return of 19.3%. the s&p 500 already up 20.4%. september is historically rough. we take a look, we are going to see investors not so worried.
this is the peak of pandemic. investors were quite fearful, but now in that complacent range. really pretty low. the open ratio -- interest ratio is at an high telling you there is a fair amount. is it hedging? or is it betting on a big correction? alix: thank you so much. joining me now, senior equity strategist. linda, it is good to chat with you. is the market complacent? >> we've been prepping for a correction for some weeks and months now.
it just doesn't play out with the volatility low. at 20% year-to-date, that is an unbelievable year. it's the sixth best since 1960. common sense would tell us things should slow down. the problem with that notion is the wall street analysts who are forecasting earnings, they continue to be too low on their expectations so they continue to raise lower earnings expectations and thus the price earnings multiple on eight forward bases does not budge that much higher. i think we have to focus on. alix: does that mean we are safe from any wheel substantial crisis? >> 5% -- from any real
substantial crisis? >> we are coming out of the pandemic with low stimulus and still easy money and again. the fed is very concerned about the strength of jobs. unfortunately, that is where the weakest recovery and those services. think of all those services companies. they are not there. the jobs have not been filled. this taper will take longer and slower and thus easy money. alix: the situation that you lined up, and the other is what we see. at walmart raising wages to hire people. you are seeing 25% turnover
because everybody is looking for jobs with higher wages. that is somewhat sustainable. at some point, does that become self-fulfilling? >> if that were the case, you would see inflation and we are seeing a lot of inflation. the fed has said we think this is transitory. it is based on these pandemic year-over-year figures. the inflation rates continue to be high. there are a lot of people out there jockeying for a better position with higher pay. inflation, looks like it's going to be higher for longer. why are they still saying that they, that it transitory and
that's what they continue to insist? the only thing i can think of is the supply problem. a big piece of the inflation with it. alix: when you are making decisions on what equities you want to own, in some ways you want to continue to own longer durations. if it's going to be the lower for longer for a feds. do you need to do volume for that cyclical trade? >> i think one of the most interesting things i've read is everything goes up. what you do, and it's true. it's still a strong economy. you can bet on the value because
they are the ones more sensitive to economic growth. that points to the energy sector , the poster child. it had a great run, but it was at 90 year relative lows before this started. we are still a very much federated hermes and cyclical camp. technology is great and as we know has come full traded every sector of the marketplace. the biggest names out there are tech names. when we say technology is likely to rise, that's because it kind of powers the market. we are expecting for a catch up and the cyclical gets its next breath. alix: tech is a safety.
that's what i'm hearing. >> not to sound like a mall over the board, we are definitely in the cyclical camp. maybe 210 snp -- 210 s and p. alix: good call, linda. thank you very much. inventory numbers are out. starting any moment. 7.2 million barrel drop. guy celine inventory did build. -- gasoline inventory did build.
bloomberg. checking on the bloomberg news. the taliban and other leaders have reached a consensus on the new formation of a government. top official says the taliban has been waiting for the full withdrawal before making any announcements about the government. prime minister justin trudeau will release a campaign platform. it will be fully found danced -- fully financed. a private measure of china's factory since april of april -- since april of 2020.
the u.s. supreme court took no action in the strictest abortion law took effect today. the supreme court could act although there is no firm deadline. the city of nur lanes will mostly legally be without electricity. -- the city of new orleans will most likely be without electricity. officials telling residents who have fled the town to stay away for now. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. alix: u.s. bankruptcy judge is saying might not cover all claims. he is speaking of the legal
claims claiming desk related to purdue pharma -- claiming related -- claims related to purdue pharma. the family, key portions of the plan were seeing some members of the family pay about 4.5 billion dollars plus have to walk away from the pharmaceutical industry. no ruling yet on the purdue pharmaceutical to settle the claims. you had a humongous draw, 7.1 million barrel draw last week. there's a lot going on in the market, particularly the opec plus. head of research of global commodities and derivatives
research. it is so good to talk to you. i want to start with the inventory numbers. where are we in the u.s. in terms of reduction? >> in our view going forward, those inventory draws. what we are going to see is more supply. it would continue to do so for a while. we are also going to see a fair amount. the u.s. taking the lions share of the oil. we are going to see more supply and a slowdown in the demand growth pattern. alix: i saw the producers were
going to be super disciplined. >> that's true for the list of names in the international oil companies, oil makers. it is not true for small producers, private companies, mom and pops. we are seeing good growth, and it's going to be the case with our rebound. that's leading to a widened divide. alix: we are seeing that spread, shrink. the other narrative is production is going to start a lot faster because you wound up
seeing the storm hit refineries on the gulf coast. how long does that last for? >> i think the spread is going to be a little wide up for about a month or so. we lost about a million barrels a day. production seems to be coming back quickly. if you look at the picture, to us at looks a little bearish. remember, there's a consumption growth story that has continued to list the public markets that it favors refiner -- favors refinery markets. we are talking about a month or two. alix: on the one hand, we've
also hired -- we also have higher gasoline prices. inventory cannot be replenished if refineries are going to take a while to restart. >> i think every market you need driving you up or driving you down. we have a phenomenal season. things have come back. now we need the gas oil, heating oil to lead the complex into the winter. we have a very strong tracking market. jet fuel is quite depressed. i don't see that changing directly with europe
recommending to stop travel. the whole covid situation will keep limiting, and our view, international travel for at least three or four months. >> alix: on the flipside, it looks like opec is going to keep raising oil per day, get back to production. hey, we could produce more if you wanted us to. should they be adding more oil to the market right now? >> it depends on what they want to achieve. honestly, you probably don't need a lot more oil. our view is going to be a range
view market. even though they don't really target prices as we know, but i think we've cotton -- but i think we have gotten into the end issue. what opec is saying, may be time to stop within the next couple of months. that means a flatter oil curve. it could be a little boring for a bit. alix: we see some deficits, but then some apply build. let's get some prices. what is your conviction in your bullish oil call? this is what you said. >> i'm bullish for the next three months. next year is a challenge. it will be even more of a challenge if there is an
agreement and they u.s. or iran return to it. that is still a wildcard. >> alix: do you agree? bullish for a few months? >> we need jet fuel. i don't quite see that in the next few months. what i do see is stronger than this year. i don't think we will see, but i do think opec will accommodate iran. if we do contain the delta variant, it will be a different story. the reopening of travel.
business stories in the news right now. european factories have unfilled orders. companies struggle to meet demand while dealing with the bottlenecks in the global supply chain. the shortfall of production beating a record set in july. a survive -- a survey employees are thinking about acquiring cobit shots by the end of the year. -- cobit shots by the end of the year. --covid shots by the end of the year. the world's biggest online retailer largest ever recruiting and training event. that is your latest. alix: here's another workplace
story that caught my eye. japan, told his staff not to smoke during work hours even if they are working from home. the firm says the new rules are based on mutual trust. appreciate the idea of the -- essay former smoker, i would be crestfallen. you've got the european close. we will get heartache. this is bloomberg. -- you will get her take. this is bloomberg. ♪
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european close. alix: here's everything you need to know. as his voice that inflation could rise faster than expected. 100 index shaking things up. quarterly index review after the bell. morrison and. opec is ready. opec needs to discuss hikes. that's your headlines in europe. let's get over to london.