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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  August 31, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EDT

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and alix steel. ♪ alix: 30 minutes to the close in europe, here's everything you need to know. taper tantrum, european bonds -- emergency stimulus, while inflation hits a decade high of 3%. aluminum suspense, the highest prices since 2011. goldman sachs upgrades its price target by 10%. no trips to paris. the e.u. imposes travel curbs and germany tells americans to reconsider airline travel. francine lacqua is joining me in london. it is all about ecb officials
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talking about paring back pep that is causing moves in the bond market. francine: you said it perfectly, we are seeing a meanie taper tantrum. -- mini taper tantrum. one of my favorite headlines was when we had inflation that beat expectations, inflation makers are b deflatingund -- deflating bund -- as soon as next week when the ecb meets, they could be talking about taking accommodation away. there is a debate on whether the pep or the emergency program, but the idea that this could come more quickly than expected because of inflation. alix: there is a ripple effect in the u.s. s&p is flat and weimer we were much lower. you have financials and utilities leading the way
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higher, and part of the reason financials are outperforming is the bond markets. we are not having a taper tantrum in the u.s. but we are having yields move higher in sympathy with the 10-year-olds -- 10 year. btp's in italy up. europe was up to 10th of 1% and now we are paring gains. we are still range bound. 1.18 for this currency cross. aluminum up over 2%, a supply and demand issue, but that story feeds through to pmi's in china that disappointed, inflation data, and also the chicago pmi in the u.s. that was really light as sentiments are getting heavier. all of it plays into the we have inflation is -- inflation, how long is it and how well it shake out? francine: if you go back to the inflation, it is really soaring
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across europe. i love this chart that brings it to life, italy the highest since 2011, 2012, and the highest in a decade in august. these numbers may justify the end of the ecb in a crisis mode. joining us is marcus ashworth, who is looking at the's figures closely. the concern is this is less temporary because it has more to do with supply chain disruptions that will be longer-lasting. marcus: you could argue both ways. i think this is a global throw in on industrial prices. there are things in the mix. german sales tax, which was back on last year, has climbed, so that will create an outlook momentum. summer sales in july -- august, there is an effect pushing the
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numbers out for farms. you could go on holiday prices and a number of things pushing through which the ecb should look through, and i think it will. when you are thinking german inflation has risen so much and is getting close to 5% by november, you have a confluence of different things making a number, as the day goes by, 3%, 4% -- 3, 4, 5 ecb members being cut before the lockdown and cannot speak anymore. saying they are talking about tapering back, and i think they probably will. they are making a billion a month. it goes back to -- francine: something similar that you can start thinking about reducing this pandemic special-purpose program.
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the rules in pep would be transferred to the regular assess -- asset purchase program which good -- do you think that flexibility will not be applied? marcus: i think what they will try and do is there are three conversations. let's forget about rate hikes. on the pep program, i think that was marginally reduced in quarter four, thinking back to the quarter one level. that is fine. the ecb has an incredibly low interest rate, -50 basis points, -1% on their tltro refinance option, so they have more going on than comparing the fed's qe. i think the discussion will be to cut the pace back and the
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conversation about what goes forward after march when the pep expires will be a different conversation, or will happen later in the year, and they will argue amongst themselves what they keep from the pep. alix: thanks a lot, always love it, marcus ashworth. joining us now is chris watling. all of this comes along as you have european stocks super solid, looking at a rise for seven months in a row. we have not seen that in like nine years. does the talk about paring back as a purchase program for the emergency fund, talk about higher inflation put cold water on this rally? chris: i think marcus put it pretty well. it is pretty tame when it starts being reduced so the impact on markets i don't think we'll be as dramatic as many imagine. if you reduce your qe or pep,
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whatever, you are still doing 60 billion a month. the fed has not announced a tapering program, so the amount of liquidity is magnificent. bonds and yields are jumping a bit, no surprise. it is sort of an instant reaction to the comments you are seeing. the trend is probably up from here today, bond yields trying to build a base and move higher into q4. it is a bit of a one-day reaction, but like the fed, i suspect the ecb will very slowly, very gentle in their way they take their qe and pep off, and i think they will want to keep markets fairly stable and avoid bouts of volatility. francine: chris, when are you
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expecting the ecb to start tapering? chris: that's a great question. to be honest, they are probably waiting to see what the fed does as part of their deliberations. they probably don't want to move too much ahead of them or too late after. it has clearly opened the conversation in the last few days, although comments, the governors, ecb governors and councilmembers making their comments about what they want to do. maybe it is the fourth quarter early q1 but i -- or early q1. they probably need to start doing this stuff. alix: something that has come up is commodity prices, and that speaks to the supply chain issues that may not get fixed overnight, particularly if china will not produce a lot. are you playing the metals rally
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and if so, how? chris: they have consolidated the game, peeked out in may and have been trending sideways, and it is rest -- risk back on in those base metals. it is not one we follow too closely, but the fundamentals for copper are terrific, and if we get risk back on, a couple of models look interesting that have been generating buy signals. that's one we like. we also like oil, but obviously that's not a base metal, but is a can -- a commodity that has consolidated with some gains. liquidity is abundant. we've had a few months, since may, when commodities tracked sideways, came off quite a lot, and are looking nicely poised for the fourth quarter. copper is one of the base metals we are interested in. francine: what do you do with china?
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they have taken a big hit, from the delta virus, and this is mainly services and manufacturing. if china is actually much lower than expected in terms of growth, what does that do for commodities? chris: we've seen with these lockdowns that governments implement them. it is not the dynamic we are use to and not something the markets worry too much about, because the more you lock down, the more likely you are to get extra liquidity and stimulus, and some momentum in the economy. i think that's where we are at with china. it is a voluntary lockdown that controls the variant. a lot of them are vaccinated already. we have debate about how efficient the vaccines are, but the markets look through these things. alix: i feel like what is a bit different with china is the longer-term shift of prosperity and the crackdown on like a
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million different sectors, where a lot of private equity and investor money has been. you could make the argument that more sophisticated investors is one thing, but if you are tracking an etf or index that winds up having these companies, they will get hit hard. can you invest in a meaningful way? chris: that is an important point and a slightly different issue, but absolutely key. china has, with these new policy changes over the weeks and months, they have essentially -- investors require a bigger risk premium to invest in china in the medium-term, but markets are efficient. a lot discounted in these prices already, you will see many stocks, education, tech, and the like down 70% from their peak bang. cyclically, -- from their peak. it is a good contrarian buy, but in the long
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term, it is another nail in the sort of capitalism coffin in china with all these new policies that mean ultimately higher risk premiums over the medium-term. francine: thank you so much. coming up, we will talk a lot more about the economy and afghanistan. the british prime minister spokesperson earlier said it is too early to say how the u.k. will work with the taliban. we will discuss that. that's coming up shortly, and this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> the airport in kabul is a
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vital link to the world, to get humanitarian aid in, but also to enable safe passage for those who want to leave. nato allies have strongly stated that we will not forget all those who are stealing afghanistan -- still in afghanistan, all of those at risk, and ensure they can leave afghanistan. francine: that was the nato secretary-general speaking with bloomberg earlier on. e.u. ministers are meeting to stem the flow of refugees into the bloc. joining us is tobias ellwood. you have been very vocal on afghanistan and have been extremely worried about a rise in terrorism in afghanistan and across the world. what can the u.k. and u.s. do to control the situation as best
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they can? tobias: just to hear the nato secretary-general say we will not forget the people of afghanistan, but that is what it looks like we've done, we've departed, and we've lost our leverage and influence. if you are the taliban, look around you. who will you choose to be your new powells? iraq -- pals. iraq, iran, russia, right on the border. this has been a demoralizing and disheartening step back for the international community. but we can do on the international stage itself, we have sent ourselves to a critical part of the world, and there are thousands of afghans who feel at risk because of the taliban, who have promised to be more lenient, claiming to have learned lessons from the past, but evidence suggests they are hunting down and executing
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commanders, media critics, forcing women to stay at home, banning hairstyles and music. it is far from over. alix: what do you do now? the other difference between 20 years ago is we didn't have -- the intelligence sharing community may be different between the u.k. and europe than it was before, and i'm wondering how we piece this together. tobias: that's a good question. there is some soul-searching for britain, what is our place in the world, what does global britain mean? we've been subservient and following america to depart, and there was a time when britain was the vacuum when america stepped back. you touched on brexit, we don't have the strongest alliance with our continental friends. the brexit fallout continues to
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affect relationships to the benefit of our adversaries. we now need to be on our guard. terrorism will rise again. the message has gone out to terrorist groups around the world that the insurgency to feed it a low budget, and we are likely to see more terrorist attacks leading up to 9/11. francine: you are a former army officer. what do you say to the troops? why would anyone want to join? tobias: we've been failed not by the armed forces. the armed forces did an incredible job in afghanistan and the evacuation. the tactical side was incredible, but the operational and strategic decision-making has gone completely wrong. there is a lot to do. our world is ever more dangerous and we need people to step forward, but it is the utility
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that we need to consider, the utility of our hard and soft power, and continue working with our allies. in my time in parliament and the armed forces, it has never been more divided. we were hoping following trump that biden would bring everyone together. that's what the g7 was about. it's gone the wrong way. alix: where is the soft power or hard power the u.k. can help provide? tobias: afghanistan specifically, the taliban are not a government in waiting. there is a group reforming. i predict there will be a kurdistan type part of afghanistan in the north that will want to break away and not be part of the taliban. winter is approaching, the economy is failing and the banks are collapsing. the united nations, unicef food program and the world health organization, and the taliban
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recognizes that. that's the slight assess -- access. now that the taliban's best friend is the chinese, we need to look at what we can achieve. francine: is there a danger that the taliban, al qaeda, and isis-k come together to fight the west? tobias: they have their very separate agendas. taliban and ikeda -- al qaeda work together and isis-k has a different goal, but they all want to cause harm to the let -- to the west. the anniversary of 9/11 will be a pivotal moment of whether they will want to attack the west. we are blessed with amazing intelligence agencies, so we can predict what will happen in other parts of the world. nevertheless, westerners will be in danger. we've lost the threat picture, and understanding of what's happening in afghanistan because we have abscessed -- absence to
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ourselves -- absenced ourselves. alix: tobias ellwood, thank you very much. updating you on the markets, eight taper tantrum on the way, btp's up 10 paces -- basis points. bunds up eight basis points, serious moves all across europe. the u.s. and u.k. are following. it is time to reduce the emergency purchase program. look at that, big moves today. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> but truth is that this
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parliamentary group including the greens, will become much more far-left than we are seeing them actually. this is the difference, and these are the guys behind --, so we are seeing a parliament with a left wing, becoming very strong, and that is why we are now starting with very hard campaign. francine: that was the former cdu caucus leader who heads the party economic council and a leading contender to be the next finance minister in germany. he spoke with maria tadeo at the cdu economic summit. maria joins us now. was the cdu able to reset the agenda so people start talking about them instead of their main rivals? maria: the reality is we have
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been here the whole day at this economic event in berlin and have not heard a lot of argument from the cdu. what we heard is this repeated line -- that the party is pushing -- the social democrats are leading in polls. someone who is moderate and someone who can lead a government, has done a fine job until now, but he will not be chancellor himself. he will need to bring a coalition and that will be a radical turn to the left, so the fear card that they are betting on, turning this into a binary choice. i cdu government, you know what you will get, but if you vote for him, a radical to the left government, a hike in taxes and the usual line on left politics in europe. that is striking, not about arguments coming from the cdu, but a very to the left coalition.
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whether that translates with voters remains to be seen. francine: the cdu is on the attack. what role do the greens have in this? maria: by the way, with some very tough language in that conversation, these are radical politicians. the younger generation of the greens and the left party will be much more radical. if we look at the manifestoes, it does not imply that. francine: maria tadeo, thank you so much, with some building headaches. travel restrictions on the u.s. from the e.u., we will talk about that and the impact on tourism. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ francine: stocks finishing the
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day in european trading, 22 seconds ago until the countdown of the european close. stocks european 600 down some 0.84%. i am excited to bring you some news, we spoke to two ecb governing council members for the taper to start earlier than the markets expect. or whether to be on the same side -- safe side, they should start tapering as soon as this month. the stoxx 600 down and there has been some movement when it comes to bonds. the ftse, the dax, and the cac 40, falling in tandem. we had some disappointing news out of china, so the european stocks started the day on the low end went higher a bit, and as soon as ecb members started tapering -- talking about
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tapering, they went down a little bit. the ftse is very rich when it comes to the commodity stocks and it is playing out to some of the biggest losers. basic resources, travel and leisure, also on the back of what we heard from the ecb saying they might put extra restrictions on u.s. travelers who are not vaccinated or maybe those who are vaccinated need to do a quarantine. basic researchers is are more under pressure. the stocks to watch, this is an interesting company. it gave happier results and it is said that there outlook remained unchanged. investors were expecting a little bit more from this company. galapagos had a chief executive they said would leave and they are one of the biggest gainers, up almost 7%. because we are talking about
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extra restrictions for u.s. travelers, i thought it would be a good thing to look at the parent company of british airways, down 2.7%. alix: the european union voting to impose new restrictions on the u.s., halting non-essential travel. i want to bring in sam fazeli, who just had his two week vacation. i cannot tell me -- tell you how much we missed you. so glad you are back. are the restrictions based in science or politics? sam: first of all, you are very kind, and i always appreciate that. if you look at the data in terms of case counts, etc., in the united states, it is pretty much nothing surprising or nothing new as far as i am concerned. it has been delta and some states are not doing well compared to others. to me, this is much more about
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politics. the european union has been open to americans and the u.s. did not reciprocate. similar situations with the u.k. i think, we've had our u.s. travelers come over here to spend the money, the summer is over, let's move on now. francine: we can move on, but the point is, do these restrictions work, whether it is only allowing vaccinated people or quarantines, if you have the same variant, does it make any sense at all? sam: not really, not to me. if you think about it, the u.k. has got all kinds of bells and whistles in terms of their travel policy. even before you are vaccinated, and they used to be a 10 day quarantine, and they have always had cases that are higher than
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other european countries. i don't see how it helps anyone at all, frankly. it is just ways of quantifying perhaps the country into thinking that the people in charge are actually making decisions that are good for the country. i don't see any difference. francine: sam, thank you so much. to talk about these restrictions and the impact on the travel and tourism industry, we are joined by john, jhs consulting. it has been too long and i'm so excited we are speaking to you. ing is down today. does that mean we will have routes stricken off or will people fly but through different places? john: the north atlantic is a very important market for a number of airport groups,
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including iag and aer lingus. the same in europe, and on the u.s. side, we have delta and united as well. the reality is we are coming toward the end of the peak summer season on both sides of the market. americans, once labor day comes, it is all the shouting. in the u.k., a lot of the time has been lost. since the e.u. did open up for a number of months and the u.k. opened later, gave them some benefit. airlines have seen massive spikes in bookings when those extra freedoms were allowed for the u.s. vaccinated travelers to come here, but that is a smaller part of the market.
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it is still nothing like a normal summer season on any airline. the impact is much greater to europeans. it is a bigger share of their revenue than u.s. carriers. u.s. carriers have the domestic market. alix: the conversation in the spring was if we don't get a proper summer season, it is over. now it is if we don't get a big winter, it will be over. what does winter look like, and which have a cash pile to get them through? john: winter normally would be a challenging season without covid and this is the second winter dealing with this virus. we've had two summers lacking the normal revenues for airlines . your point is well made, it is all about liquidity and cash balances. three big network carriers in the u.s. and those in europe do
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have substantial cash balances, either through having gone to equity raisers or turned to bond issues or the peer routes. two european groups have sustained show cash -- substantial cash injections from their governments. airlines are expensive and burn through cash even when not flying. the other challenge is as they try to marginally put more passengers on, cash running costs are going up. a lot of these groups -- will stack up more debt in the future. to pay off some of the government investment has already made a difference. the airlines do not make it. francine: who does not make it?
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if we have restrictions or not restrictions of the way we travel, the way we go on holiday will change. if you are a hotel, you don't suffer so much, but airlines will. who survives? john: the big strong players. we've talked about network groups. i would expect them to survive, maybe in a smaller form. we have seen little attrition because we had it pre-covid. we saw norwegian coming out of the north american market. now they are only a fraction of the size they were before, approaching 200 aircraft and now they are flying 50 in norway. the u.s., which we require such as ryanair, they are the leaders in europe.
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if we travel less often, that repeat business is a challenge, as is a mixed in travel. -- mix in travel. how much business travel actually comes back for the future? companies are reining in their budgets and not traveling, and by doing zoom and teams and so on conferences. alix: it seems like the popular guys, the budget airlines or short-haul travel, is that positivity baked in already? john: i think it is. they are going out ambitiously, expanding ryanair and wizz air are increasing their fleets. wizz has added more than any other airline. maybe they have trimmed capacity and taken aircraft out of certain airports and put them somewhere else where they've made diversity is strength by
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doing a lot of tests that would not have been done pre-covid. they are exposing themselves to more markets and traffic flows, so they increase the chance of more work in the long term. i touched on some small carriers. in europe, our number of small european carriers that have survived, air italia -- alitalia will change in name. it would normally not survive but will be there in some form or iteration because the government is backing it up under a different name. alix: thanks a lot. we appreciate it because we know you changed your meeting. john strickland from jail s. -- jl s. apple production has been down, according to the nikkei. you have to wonder how much restrictions from covid will feed through to the components
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which feed through to the end product, if that is what the problem is. you can see that in many different industries, not necessarily just the apple watch. francine? francine: yesterday we were looking at some of the insider reports and what the nuance could look like. a surprising thing out of the nikkei. paul browning, mitsubishi, about why america is building out the hybrid infrastru.
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♪ ritika: this is "bloomberg markets: european close." coming up, ambassador hugo lawrence. that is at 1:30 p.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ a check on the bloomberg first word news, -- has good relations
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with the u.s. hours after the final round of american soldiers flew out of afghanistan. the taliban -- inflation in the euro area has jumped to the highest in a decade. consumer prices rose 3%, higher than their predictions of 37 economists. that is testing policymakers that a spike should prove to be temporary. it turns out that the italian team has lost more than just its star player. the team will walk away with about 18 million in the deal, but paid 100 meal -- 100 million a year ago. it generated a negative impact at about 16.6 million in the 2020/2021 fiscal year.
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in new orleans and southern louisiana, hurricane ida has left and more than a million homes and businesses are without electricity. more than 25,000 workers from 23 states have been mobilized to restore power, which could take weeks. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. alix: for more on ida, i want to bring in paul browning from mitsubishi. they provide power generation solutions from gas to solar, and storage solutions from batteries to hydrogen. they announced they will be a strategic financial advisor as they expand hydrogen. thanks a lot for joining us, a lot to get through. i did want to start on ida. what is the state of the utility situation that you know of? paul: the major utility that has
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been impacted is entergy in louisiana, which is a great customer of ours. the big challenge is major transmission lines particularly in new orleans, have been knocked down during the storm. there are eight major transmission lines and it sounds like all of them are down. there are about a million people out of power. a lot of them will probably be restored quickly, but there will be some folks that i think what entergy has said, it will take up to three weeks to get power restored. francine: it gives us a lot to think about, whether it is consumer spending, so how long does it take to have a final assessment for when things will be back up? paul: generally, you will need to have people on the ground and assess the situation. it is a big challenge to access
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these areas because of flooding and left over issues from the hurricane. probably several days until they have a full assessment. alix: bringing in the state of utilities in the country, which is a huge problem, your relationship and agreement with citi is about hydrogen buildout. where do you see the growth? what are we talking about in five to 10 years? paul: you had me on about a year ago and i was talking about getting ready for hydrogen. we've just made an incredible amount of progress in the last year. we signed joint development agreements with entergy to help them find their pathway to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. we've made a similar agreement with an energy company and the pacific northwest, and a huge amount of progress in the
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world's largest green hydrogen storage project called the clean energy storage project, which will provide green hydrogen to the intermountain power, the last coal-fired power plant in california and will be replaced with a plant that has the capability to use green hydrogen. we are working with bok and energy -- bakken energy on the largest blue hydrogen hub. we've identified these early adopters of hydrogen and what we are working on is how are we going to stitch this together and bring hydrogen to north america? francine: when you talk about blue hydrogen, it is produced using fossil fuels. is it more polluting than coal? paul: there are reports out -- you can make any green
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technology look bad if you make bad assumptions. ev's look bad if you assume they will be powered by coal-fired power generation. our project in north dakota will be a low-power project. it uses national -- natural gas to produce blue hydrogen, but with low carbon emissions. our green hydrogen projects will have zero carbon emissions because we are producing hydrogen using renewable fuel and electrolysis with water. when -- alix: when do you see the power for this being economic? especially in competitive markets like texas, how does that happen? paul: we see green hydrogen as an energy storage technology, so it is not a fuel right now that will compete with natural gas or other fuels. it is an energy storage technology that will be compared
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to storage technologies like battery energy storage. hydrogen today is the cheapest way to do it. that is our investment with green hydrogen, we have customers right now like the los angeles department of water and power, a major offtake from the power project, they are curtailing renewables in the springtime because they have too much. and extreme weather event last summer, california came up short. that is what green hydrogen will do in the near term, and then we will bring the cost of green hydrogen down over the next few years. then it will be a competitive fuel and essentially a zero carbon fuel for many things, including power generation, transmission, and utilities. francine: what about blue hydrogen? does the biden bill expand the
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so-called blue hydrogen or stop doing so? paul: we believe blue hydrogen is an important answer for some customers and green will be right for others. the bipartisan infrastructure build that was passed in the senate does provide for four hydrogen hubs with two involving fossil fuels. but again, fossil fuels with carbon capture to remove the co2 from the process. francine: thank you so much for joining us, paul browning, mitsubishi power president and ceo. we will look at the market, politics, and current affairs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ alix: coming up, in the next 24 hours a lot happening. president biden will deliver
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remarks in afghanistan around 2:45. the secretary of homeland security and fema administration or will head to new orleans. you know i am watching the opec-plus meeting tomorrow. many are speculating opec-plus my not cut -- might not cut the 100,000 barrels of oil in the market. francine: we share a love for the oil market coverage. tomorrow, the e.u. informer did -- informal defense meeting about how to farther -- further counter tank -- terrorism. we have numbers from costco and france and germany pmi. stocks are fluctuating near all-time highs, but investors in europe are worried about inflation, so the pmi's could give us an indication of which
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direction the economy is going. alix: the supply shortage is hitting manufacturing, services getting hit by inflation. is it temporary? talking about paring back pap, we had a stronger euro -- paring back pep. we had a stronger euro. francine: we had two great interviews today with the hawks circling this -- the ecb. they did have a taper tantrum. alix: francine, thank you very much for hanging with us. it was a pleasure to host you. coming up, senator bill cassidy of -- senator bill cassidy joining. ♪
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washington. welcome to a special edition of balance of power. we are marking the withdrawal of u.s. forces from afghanistan after 20 years, ending the longest war in american history. what struck me yesterday it was general mckenzie saying we cannot get everyone out but i was in the room when the president said that me make it here, any american once home can come home. >> and some were suggesting they chose not to go home. the line was anyone who wants to get out will get out at most of those americans who are left have connections, they have family, other people to give in. is it fair to say this simply was not criteria that allowed them to? >>


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