Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  August 23, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EDT

10:00 am
guy johnson. ♪ guy: monday the 23rd. 30 minutes into the trading day in the united states. from london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel over in new york. welcome everybody to "bloomberg markets." by the dip -- buy the tip monday or pfizer monday? alix: i think it's both. we got the news that the fda did give pfizer full approval. most all sectors except for the safeties are in the green. 10 year yield now flat. interesting because we saw more selling earlier in the session, but now pretty much flat at 1.26%. bloomberg dollar index still down, but had a tremendous week last week, leading many to worry it was made -- it was maybe a
10:01 am
bit overbought. crude up after seven sessions of losses, the worst week since february 2018. you can also imagine we are going to get a bounce. we were just really heavily sold when it came to the dollar. guy: absolutely, but you can see those all reversing. what comes next may comes down to what we see at later this week. the housing market clearly part of that narrative. we've got existing home sales data hitting the tape as we speak. 5.9 million, above expectations. the prime number has been revised higher. this is july data. we will talk to caliber homes a little later on. one of the factors in all of this is obviously that the fed is buying significant amounts of mortgages at the moment. if it were to taper, with those mortgages be first on the block? we will see. the delta variant confusing matters quite.
10:02 am
alix: let's get to our top story of the morning, the approval of the pfizer/biontech vaccine and a crucial test this week for president biden's agenda. shares are up on the news. joining us is bloomberg health care reporter riley griffin. give us the details. riley: what does this mean? the biden administration and u.s. health officials are eager for this full approval. ultimately, they hope it increases confidence in the vaccine among hesitant americans. you've heard president biden say this is a pandemic of the unvaccinated. still three and 10 eligible americans have yet to get even one dose of a vaccine. the hope -- three in 10 eligible americans have yet to get even one dose of vaccine. the hope is that it will clear the way for employers, schools,
10:03 am
and universities to begin mandating the vaccine with more comfort and confidence. we have not yet seen moderna, j&j approach u.s. regulators for that biologic license application. that process that facilitates full approval is different from the emergency use designation we have seen previously. that designation only lasts in public health emergencies during the state of the panda but, so this decision is ultimately critical not only to increasing confidence in the shot, but to ensuring that pfizer and biontech have a sustainable business model moving forward. the vaccine is going to make $33 billion plus this year, and we are looking to see what those revenue chains look like in the future. guy: thank, indeed. i wonder whether or not it will allow companies to be a bit more aggressive in terms of vaccine mandates.
10:04 am
now that we have this approval, maybe they can take that step before the legal concerns are two great. let's talk about the big event we were talking about a moment ago, may be diminished a little bit. jackson hole is going virtual. the annual gathering of central bankers and policymakers not immune to the effects of riving covid cases -- of rising covid cases. i wonder whether actually, this decision almost sets the tone for the event. mike mckee, bluebird international economics and policy correspondent, canceling his flight, as has everybody else. the fact that we are having this canceled in person as a result of covid, i wonder whether or not that changes the narrative. michael: i am not sure it changes the narrative for jay powell, but it may set the tone for the meeting. the buffalo aren't going to be roaming, and there's going to be lots of discouraging words from people want me -- people with me who don't get to go to wyoming. like everywhere else, covid
10:05 am
cases are skyrocketing. the red line is the five day moving average. you can see they are just overwhelmed out there. they have gone to code red where the gathering is held, so they can have gatherings. so they have gone virtual. the question is whether or not this will affect the way the economy functions going forward. that we don't know. we do get numbers on friday, personal consumption and incomes, that will matter a lot to the fed. what we have seen in the pass is that people have pulled back on spending when we get these virus spikes. you can see that right here in the december period. now we have recovered, but to people pullback again? jay powell will have to work that into his speech, so that may set a tone for the markets going forward. a couple of other things to mention, we have heard from a couple of our great bloomberg
10:06 am
reported that janet yellen has told jay powell -- or had told the president that he should renominate jay powell. it will be interesting to see if we get any kind of comment from powell in his remarks. he's not going to be around reporters, since this is virtual, so we don't get a chance to ask him. but does he say anything about the fed going forward? his term would be up as chairman in january, so it could matter to the market as a term -- the markets in terms of what is going to happen next. the story about marty walsh, the labor secretary, being worried about the covid variation, this is another reason that we see the participation rate start to drop. do we see people dropping out of the labor force because they are afraid of covid, and the hiring slows down. we get the report for august on september 23, after jay powell speaks this week, so he may not be able to give you much of a definitive answer.
10:07 am
alix: in the meantime, pressure is mounting in washington is virus cases continued to climb in the u.s., and the house is back today, briefly interrupting its summer recess to vote on the senate's $1.5 trillion budget resolution. annmarie hordern joins us. what is the situation between moderates and progressives right now? annmarie: it is going to be an interesting balancing act for speaker pelosi. it is going to be later this evening. it is just a procedural vote on moving forward the bipartisan infrastructure agreement and the budget resolution, which is the framework to that three point $5 trillion democrat only package. tomorrow will be a little bit more of a showdown. this is where you are going to have the moderates and progressives really fight it out with mansi pelosi about how exactly this should go forward. the moderates, in their opinion
10:08 am
piece in "the washington post" last week, saying time kills all deals. we want to move on this asap. but speaker pelosi is not there yet. speaker pelosi saying these moderates will get on board with a budget resolution, or they won't vote yes until they know that bipartisan infrastructure is going to move up the timetable. it is really all in the numbers. speaker pelosi can only lose three votes. you have nearly 100 people in the progressive caucus, and nine of these moderates. so tomorrow is really going to be the key date to watch. if they don't get a decision tomorrow, this could extend to the rest of the week. guy: thank you very much, indeed, bloomberg's annmarie hordern joining us from d.c.. coming up, bounce back monday, buy the dip monday, call it what you will, we are bouncing back. nadia lavelle, ubs senior equity strategist, joining us next.
10:09 am
this is bloomberg. ♪
10:10 am
10:11 am
♪ guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel in new york. this is "bloomberg markets." the s&p having its best performance to this point of the year in decades. wall street really divided on where equities go from here, where treasuries go from here over the next four months into year end. a huge dispersion. abigail doolittle is looking at that gap. abigail: it felt like for some time now, pretty much everybody on the street was bullish, looking for that melt up higher.
10:12 am
but now ella tip to treasuries and stocks, there is a pretty wide divide between year-end targets. if we start off with the 10 year yield, there are two strategist on the street who see 1% 1.2% -- 1% to 1.2%. steve major making this call for months now, saying it will go to 1% before we see 2%. other analysts and strategists calling between 1.8% to 2% by the end of the year. the question is whether or not that happens, is it a healthy reflation or inflation. we don't know. if it is reflation, it will probably be good for the s&p 500 or get that will support the analysts and strategists on the street closer to they high of 4700 by the end of the year. below might sit -- the low might suggest that it will be perceived as inflation, not good
10:13 am
for stocks. some analysts thinking there could be a 15% correction. the median right about flat from here. after the next four months, the fall, august and september into the end of the year, generally pretty volatile. 2015, we had black monday for that down day. in 2011, last four months down 10% after the debt downgrade for the usa. in 2015, there's a piece of that black monday. 2018, after the big melt up, the net big selloff. last year and 2019, but last year in particular, up 17%. it is so hard to know how it is going to go, so that could be a piece of the dispersion we are seeing for analysts, especially with all of the uncertainty out there. alix: exactly. lots of stuff going on. next very much. with more, nadia lovell, ubs global wealth management senior equity strategist, joins us now.
10:14 am
she has raised her s&p target to 600 and sees it going to 5000 -- -- to 4600 and sees it going to 5000. nadia: even we were surprised by the strength. we think that momentum can continue. we looking for 45% earnings for this year, and next you're looking for 10%. but i will say that includes a higher corporate tax rate and also buybacks. buybacks are accelerating. we have seen announcements near the record level we saw in 2018, so that no only provides some support for earnings, but also the overall market price level, so we have pretty high conviction in at 4600 year end and 5004 december 2022.
10:15 am
-- and 5000 for december 2022. guy: one thing that did stand out was that ceos are starting to get cautious about what is happening in terms of their costs and the friction they are feeling when it comes to doing business, begets trying to get a hold of stuff for their supply chains, trying to get hold of labor. we are starting to see evidence in the data coming out of europe that demand is being throttled by lack of supply. isn't there a danger that corporations feel that and actually have to make a meaningful downgrade in terms of their expectation? nadia: yes, that is something we are watching, the supply chain disruption and renewed concerns around the delta variant. we know a lot of countries in asia have a zero-tolerance policy for covid, so that could further disrupt supply chains. we think that corporations will be able to get enough supply to meet the demand, and we think
10:16 am
there's potential pressure from an inflation or a standpoint, and they will be able to pass along those prices because demand is so strong. alix: where do you want to be putting the most risk on? you had small caps get absolutely routed last week, and now we are seeing funds a little but higher. you already have defensive names doing well. now cyclicals are more in charge. what do you think? nadia: we still have a cyclical and value to two are sector preferences. we have taken down cyclicality just a bit versus the first half of the year, so we have downgraded industrials to neutral and upgraded health care to overweight. we still have preference for consumer discretionary, financials, and energy. we are pleased to see energy is back. we know performance recently has been quite disappointing, largely due to concerns around the delta variant and what it can mean to global growth and oil demand. but we continue to think this is
10:17 am
temporary, and the oil market will remain in supply until 2022. right now, we are pricing in a wti price of mid $40, which we think is too low, and the companies in q2 are starting to show capital discipline, so we think all of that is a positive and that energy is where you put the incremental dollar. guy: we haven't had a correction in a very long time. last week certainly does not count. i am wondering how significant an event there needs to be to generate a correction, and whether or not a fed taper would be in the mix. nadia: we think of course, everyone is watching the job market. the job market numbers are very strong. if those numbers we can significantly in september -- numbers weaken significantly in september and october, that would give the market reason for pause. we all look forward to full recovery in the job market to
10:18 am
tell us the recovery is on solid footing. that also does give the fed some freedom, but i don't think in that scenario that it would be read favorably by the market. our overall view is that we expect strong numbers in september, and that will allow the fed to get to that substantial further progress in look to taper later this year, beginning tapering in early 2022. alix: to that point, marty walsh, the labor secretary, was talking about the fact that he's a little worried about covid and what winds up happening when it comes to the jobless world, and will people not come back into the workforce. that raises the question, do we see extension of the unblamable benefit? when you have officials -- the unemployment benefit? when you have officials worrying about that, does that feed into the equity market? nadia: it is something we continue to closely watch. we don't think that the labor market needs that additional stimulus, as we have seen for quite some time but there's a lot of job openings, but there's
10:19 am
also a disconnect in terms of a gap between skills and actual openings, and we think that gap will need to be closed, so we don't think there will be a need for reinstatement of unemployment benefits. we do think also that approval of a full vaccination, of the vaccine, we think that will help encourage people to get vaccinated and help the world return to normalcy. so our concern about the job market, we think it will recover. guy: we've got to wrap it up there. happy birthday to your mother. thank you very much indeed for joining us. we really appreciate it. not a yellow belt of ubs global -- nadia lovell of ubs global wealth management, thank you. coming up, pfizer and biontech's vaccine gets full approval from the fda. we will have details to follow. this is bloomberg.
10:20 am
10:21 am
10:22 am
ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. i'm ritika gupta. bitcoin has gone over have to thousand dollars for the first time since mid-may -- over $50,000 for the first time since mid-may. the total crypto market has seen its value rise almost $1 trillion in the last month. companies around the world are so flush with cash that they are racing to bring back dividends, according to a study from data henderson investors. payouts are expected to reach almost $1 trillion this year, the second highest total ever. dividends will hit prepend them in -- pre-pandemic highs within 12 months. pfizer has agreed to by all the shares of cancer drug maker
10:23 am
trillion, valued at a 118% premium to trillion's price. that is your bloomberg business flash. guy: the fda has granted full approval for the pfizer/biontech covid vaccine. bloomberg senior stocks editor dave wilson has more. dave: you are talking about a vaccine that has been sold in the u.s. under emergency use authorization for the past nine months, so now it has full approval, it raises the possibility of more vaccine mandates, and certainly raises the potential for pfizer to benefit in terms of their sale. analysts are anticipating that sales will be double what they were a year ago, and bear in mind back in july, pfizer forecast $33.5 billion of vaccine sales for the year,
10:24 am
which was up something like 30% from their previous forecast. this is clearly an area of growth for the company, and the u.s. is just part of that growth when you consider looking around the world what the opportunities are. there are 277 million people in the u.s., or 200 some to 7 million shots it would take to get every buddy vaccinated. you are talking about much bigger numbers outside the u.s. a lot of emerging markets, india and china have their own vaccine, so there is competition locally there, that there's more room for growth, and certainly pfizer is in a better position to benefit now that it has full u.s. authorization. alix: we also heard pfizer announced today it will buy cancer drugmaker trillium. give us some of the details that deal. dave: pfizer has six areas of focus. one of them is vaccine. another one, oncology, cancer
10:25 am
drugs. that is where trillium comes in. this is a company they invested in in september, $25 million under a program that basically lets them get their foot in the door. so they liked what they saw. now they are buying the whole company. you have $2.3 billion, way more than trillium was actually trading at because you're talking about a dilemma and stage company, and as a result, trillium has really taken off in the u.s. in response to this deal. alix: pfizer also up by about 4%. they've, really appreciate it. just going back to the fda approval, i think the biggest question is does that mean we can see mandates in terms of vaccines? we saw today that new york city teachers and staff are going to be mandated to be vaccinated. does this actually bring anyone off the sidelines who was vaccine hesitant? guy: i would be really surprised if it changed anybody's calculation on a personal basis as to whether or not they are going to get the vaccine, but it does probably allow general
10:26 am
counsels to say, from a legal perspective, we now have a bit of a shield here, as a result of which we will move forward with a mandate to get our people back. it will certainly change corporate behavior, and i also think it speaks to the idea that we are in this for the long haul, that this is something we all have to get used to. others i think are going to be slower in terms of getting there approval, but this is something that probably suggests we will have to get used to. alix: there were some that were like, i am going to wait until it's fully approved. even a couple here and there could make a difference. greg valliere, agf investments chief u.s. policy strategist, will be joining us. what is happening in afghanistan could disrupt desmet -- how what is happening in afghanistan could disrupt the mess here in the u.s. this is bloomberg.
10:27 am
and there you have it- woah. wireless on the most reliable network nationwide. wow. -big deal! ...we get unlimited for just 30 bucks. sweet, i get that too and mine has 5g included. that's cool, but ours save us serious clam-aroonies. relax people, my wireless is crushing it. that's because you all have xfinity mobile with your internet. it's wireless so good, it keeps one upping itself.
10:28 am
10:29 am
♪ pres. biden: let me be clear.
10:30 am
the evacuation of thousands of people from kabul is going to be painful, no matter when we started, when we began. it would have been true if we started a month ago or a month from now. there's no way to evacuate this many people without pain and loss and the heartbreaking images you see on the vision. it's just a fact. alix: that's president biden defending the u.s. troop pullout from afghanistan. joining us now is greg valliere, agf investments chief u.s. policy strategist. it looks like boris johnson is going to try to push back on the august 31 deadline from the u.s. to pull out. on the flipside, the taliban saying no, redline, august 31. what does biden do? greg: this was quite a shocking statement this morning from the taliban saying that's it, august 31. i don't think we have enough equipment, resources to get everybody out by the 31st. we are going to have to try to see some kind of
10:31 am
extension. as we get closer, i think this is going to be a pretty nerve-racking narrative. guy: if we find ourselves in a situation where we need more time to get people out, and the taliban say we are going to push back now, how much worse for biden could it get if we start to see more terrible scenes that are only going to be worsened by the fact that there will be civilians and the two sides fighting? this could get really ugly? greg: it is pretty grim. it just goes to the criticism that this was very poorly planned. i would think that he will probably try to get another two or three days. maybe that would be enough. but if the taliban does not relent, there could be a real conflict, a military conflict between the two. i don't think it will get to that point, but as each day passes, it is going to become
10:32 am
more and more of a threat. alix: the market has very much blinked and moved on from afghanistan. what they won't be able to move on from is the $3.5 trillion that is on the table and the $1 trillion infrastructure bill. how does all of this impact that policy agenda? greg: you make a great point that the markets expected we were going to get a huge new chunk of stimulus, and i have been quite outspoken saying that that is far from a done deal. i think that will give an important signal might -- that we will get an important signal tonight or tomorrow that we do not have the votes. they just want the one bill that passed a of weeks ago. if this stays as an impasse, it is entirely possible they are going to kick the can down the road. they won't resolve it until well into the fall. the same for the debt ceiling. with that kind of lack of
10:33 am
resolution, the markets may have to start worrying that the stimulus may not be as big as they had hoped. guy: the president's approval rating has been dinged pretty badly by what is happening in afghanistan. do we find ourselves in a situation where the democrats will rally around him, or has that moment passed? does what is happening with his approval rating make it less likely or more likely that we get a deal and the democrats come together? greg: right now, democrats and public are largely supportive, but the democrats in private are scathing over the way this has been bungled. i think everyone in this town is going to carefully look at the polls, which showed some real erosion for biden in the last few days, and not just over afghanistan. over covid, crime, immigration, you name it. so i do think this is going to be an issue.
10:34 am
for the hard-core right-wing republicans who think they can take the house next year, and that is possible, they are already beginning to talk about impeachment. could they have the votes in the house to impeach? maybe. would they have the votes in the senate to convict? absolutely not. but we have seen this dance before, and i don't rule out talk of impeachment growing over the next few months. alix: it also feels like the cards are stacked against president biden when it comes to delta. the job number last month was amazing. the momentum in the job market has been quite good. it feels like we are hitting a very big speedbump that we don't know how big it is going to be. artie walsh and the debarment of education secondary came out over the weekend saying we were hoping for a nice recovery in september. this could slow down some of that. what happens to biden's approval rating with the job market? greg: i think it stays soft. what a signal from the federal
10:35 am
reserve, basically saying we can't have an open conference at jackson hole because of the variant. so even the fed is knowledge and that this problem is not over yet, and it could lead to a softer economy towards the end of the year. very tough choices for jerome powell. guy: bloomberg is reporting that janet yellen, is supporting powell being reappointed. does afghanistan make that even more likely? i would have thought the president wouldn't want to be dealing with anything difficult right now, anything that is going to rock the boat, anything that could upset the market. does he just reappoint powell as a result of what is happening elsewhere? is that the easy choice? greg: absolutely, i think that the markets like powell. i think he is a shoo-in now after this leak could bloomberg over the weekend. there is an interesting angle, and that is powell is not an
10:36 am
aggressive regulator. we know that. that has been controversial. if he had been replaced by lael brainard, who perhaps would have been an aggressive regulator, that might not have been a good story for the banks and financial institutions. if it is powell, at the margin, that is not a bad story for banks. guy: greg, always a pleasure. thank you very much, indeed. coming up, we saw the housing data at the top of the hour. sales of previously owned u.s. homes picking up in july. could a taper affect that? where are the bottlenecks in the housing market? we're going to speak to the ceo of one of the biggest mortgage providers in the united states. sanjiv das, ceo of caliber home loans, joining us next. ♪
10:37 am
10:38 am
10:39 am
ritika: this is "bloomberg markets."
10:40 am
i'm ritika gupta. coming up, randy weingarten, the american federation of teachers president. that is at 1:00 p.m. in new york, 6:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. the fda has given full approval to the coronavirus vaccine developed by pfizer and biontech. it will now be marketed to the prevention of covid and people 60 and over. it may open the door to more vaccine mandates -- people 16 and over. it may open the door to more vaccine mandates. vice president kamala harris is in singapore, where she announced a new supply chain initiative. she and the prime minister also announced agreements on cybersecurity and climate. did you countries want to deepen their economic ties, but the
10:41 am
talks today did not cover new trade agreements. in hong kong, the commerce secretary defended the government's abrupt u-turn to reimpose some of the strictest florentine policies. -- strictest quarantine policies. >> whatever is imposed on hong kong, i think we need to defend our interests. ritika: last week, hong kong abandoned an attempt to cut quarantine to just seven days for some vaccinated travelers. more countries are now on the high risk level that requires three weeks of quarantine. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. guy: thank you very much, indeed. we talked about it at the top of the hour. let's get more on the existing home sales numbers. we are going to go to bloomberg's mike mckee, our international aussie and
10:42 am
economics correspondent. -- international policy and economics correspondent. michael: this is home sales. we had the existing home sales, as you mentioned, at the top of the hour. they were up more than expected. so that was good news. there's a little bit more inventory out there. the problem is tomorrow we get new home sales, and look at the trend. the thing i want you to notice on this chart is that these are two different scales. there's one scale for existing home sales and another for new home sales because they sell a different rate. a lot fewer new homes get sold. the existing homes rate is getting back to where we were before the financial crisis, but new homes or not. there's a reason for that. they can't build them fast enough at this point. the chart i think i have for this will show you this is the total number of sales. you have to use your imaginations here. pretend you are on radio. if you were looking at housing under construction, it would be up here.
10:43 am
i know you can ask caliber ceo about that. they are working off of blogs. they are building houses, but they can't sell a lot more houses because they don't have the capacity at this point, it appears. the other thing that is happening is prices are adjusting. that is what always happens in a supply and demand situation. existing home sales prices have been going up. new home sales prices have been going up at a faster rate because there was a shortage. so it is good news again for the builders. alix: mike, thanks a lot. michael: there's your prices. these are existing homes, and the rapid rise in new home prices. alix: thinks a lot. we really appreciate it. joining us for his take on the housing market, sanjiv das, caliber homes ceo. i should point out, full disclosure, i have a cash out refi loan with caliber home loans. that was a snapshot of the whole
10:44 am
country and where we are with housing. what is really standing out to you right now? sanjiv: thank you for having me. a couple of things right now is what mike just mentioned, the massive imbalance between supply and demand. demand continues to be high, despite the fact that the pandemic surge has seen a slowdown. those are really driving demand. but supply continues to be the big drag on the industry. what we are witnessing is a huge increase in prices bringing down the affordability a little bit. guy: how do we solve that supply-side issue? we are starting to see them put costs going down, but labor remains very expensive. is it an issue with zoning that we need to fix and figure out more quickly?
10:45 am
is it an issue with financing of the housebuilding some -- housebuilding sector? big house builders can generally get the financing they need. where would be the most effective place to focus right now? sanjiv: great question. a lot of questions and that. the way i think about this is there is a crisis in terms of supply of homes because -- supply of homes as opposed to supply of loans. we are at an all-time record in terms of providing loans. that story is a little different depending on which segment of the market we are talking about. there is still some friction in terms of supply of credit to part of our consumer base. we are all working on that. but generally speaking, as you know from what mike said, the
10:46 am
reason for supply of homes is constrained is land, labor, and lumbar. those things are very similar to building roads and bridges. it just takes time. i wish they could appear overnight, but having said that, we are working very hard as an industry with the government, and this administration has been a lot of infrastructure spend, close to $300 billion, on refurbishing existing homes, building about one million new homes. just to give you a scale of the problem, we have a short supply of about 5.6 million homes. this is going to take time. it will take about five years before we even come to where we need to be. but it is all about land, labor and lumbar -- and lumber.
10:47 am
alix: in the meantime, it is pushing out prescriptive -- pushing out perspective homebuyers in terms of rental prices. if the situation doesn't get revised in five years, what are some of the longer-term effects we are going to see in the market right now? sanjiv: great question. as you know, in the u.s., it has always been a tale of so many different parts of the country. it is not really hard to generalize it across the whole country. for example, i know you live in new york, but in new york city, prices are coming back, so there's a little bit of suburban/urban reversion happening. but in the last 12 months, a fort ability has started getting impacted or get affordability is a factor of interest rates and home prices. rates have continued to stay very low. the 30 year rate is two hovering around 3%. but as prices are going up, a fort ability is coming down. so there will be this rebalance
10:48 am
from buying homes to renting homes, and we are looking at programs like to own set -- like rent to own so that we can start to buy incentives for people to start to own homes they are currently renting. i think the surge we saw in homes is unset or little bit because of the elevated prices. guy: i don't want to go down the road of alix telling us what rate she got. alix: you brought it up. i did not even mention it. [laughter] guy: she usually gets very happy at this point. alix: 2.75%. [laughter] guy: we are going to move on. if we were to see the fed to bring mortgage-backed security purchases, would that have any impact on the market? sanjiv: yes, it will. tapering will definitely have the impact of increasing rates, but today we are seeing record low rates and record high
10:49 am
purchases. so when the fed starts to taper, we absolutely expect rates will start to go up a little bit. alix:alix: this is an unfair question to ask you, but how much do you think the fed can taper in the mortgage market before it starts to impact? if they are just rolling off a few billion versus selling, that is going to have a different kind of impact. materially, when does it change versus the psychological impact? sanjiv: i think this is driven so much by psychology that the fed singling it is going to start tapering is going to cause rates to go up. but if the fed were to cut its buying even by half, the 30 year rate, which is at about 3.06%, pre-covid it was at about 3.6%
10:50 am
, so i expected to go into that zone in the next 12 to 18 months. so somewhere between 3% and 3.5% if the fed were to cut its rates and taper. guy: final question from me. globally, we are starting to see central bankers and policymakers voicing concern that we may be pushing a housing market to a point where it starts to become unstable. is there any evidence of that in the united states? sanjiv: not yet. you're right. 12 million is the highest in terms of home price inflation. we have seen most of that in europe. i think the u.s., if i renumber correctly from the last chart that i saw, is i think number five or number six compared to the rest of the world. however, i will say that in the
10:51 am
u.s., is a fundamental source of demand as opposed to speculative source of demand, i know that i am not seeing the forces of speculation in this market. it is real fundamental sources -- [indiscernible] those three fundamentals don't seem to be secular to me at all in the u.s. guy: always great to get your insight into what is happening, a real-time idea of what this market looks like. we are all tracking it so carefully, trying to figure out what it is going to mean if the fed tapers, and this huge shift, the instability brought on by the pandemic in terms of people, where they want to live and what kind of houses they want to live in. sanjiv das, caliber homes ceo, thank you.
10:52 am
a little note that got a great deal of attention from alix steel, we are now looking at, according to new york city mayor bill de blasio, a mandate on vaccinations for staff by september 22. i find it interesting this comes on the same day that we see pfizer getting full approval by the fda. there is now no legal threat surrounding this, i would imagine. alix: but also, i would say this is coming weeks before school is supposed to start in the public school system, and anecdotally, i can tell you there are lots of parents i know who are really worried because here in new york, there is no hybrid option. you are in school were out of school. that is it. there's no hybrid, no stay-at-home schooling. that is putting a lot of wildcards into it, particularly in public schools, where in some areas, you may not have the space to put kids three feet apart. what about the little kids who cannot get vaccinated? all this questions last year,
10:53 am
same once this year. guy: interesting that we are not even anywhere near that debate in the u.k. i think ventilation is something we are focusing on over here. doesn't seem to be a great deal of it in many school, and as a result of which, that poses a huge challenge. this was from scott gottlieb speaking over the weekend on "face nation, -- "face the nation," speaking about some of the concerns that schools could become a focal point of community transmission, and this is the kicker, and become environments that aren't safe for children. as you say, that is going to get parents pretty worried. alix: not to mention areas of the u.s. where you are not allowed to mandate squaring in school. that is a whole different thing. much more on that. we will discuss. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:54 am
10:55 am
10:56 am
alix: live from new york, i'm alix steel, with guy johnson in london. this is "bloomberg markets." new york city mayor bill de blasio is saying you have to be vaccinated if you are a teacher or staff in new york city public schools. i can't tell if this is buy the dip, if it is a pfizer approval vaccine bump. i'm not really sure today. guy: the nasdaq is outperforming, which i think is interesting. i think the delta plays into what is happening with the fed. maybe the fed pushes out taper a little further because of what is happening. maybe it needs more information. schools, we don't know what is going to happen. there's the expedition that labor supply was going to pick up. maybe that doesn't happen now. lots of things on the table to discuss. chris williamson joining us from markit next. this is bloomberg. ♪
10:57 am
10:58 am
10:59 am
>> the countdown is on in europe. this is "bloomberg markets: european close," with guy
11:00 am
johnson and alix steel. ♪ guy: monday the 20 for -- this one he third. what do you need -- the 23rd. what do you need to know out of europe that this hour? luxury retail names powering the move, up a little bit. we will see what happens with the rest of the week. august pmi data out of the u.k. pointing to a sharp economic slowdown. supply-side constraints starting to bite. numbers out of the eurozone holding up reasonably well. any moment, we will get the inside track with chris williamson. the u.k. buying more shots of the pfizer/biontech dab as the vaccine gets full fda approval in the united states. there's an fda briefing about to start. we will bring you the headlines out of that.


info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on