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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  August 13, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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worried about inflation and i think that could bring the stock market correction at some point. >> we don't think the fed is still bothered by this degree of inflation. >> this reopening trade i would argue has not even started yet. jonathan: from new york city, audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. how many times have we started the show with "record high after record high"? tom: the covid, the delta variant. the equity markets are underplayed. we are benumbed by this great
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will market. -- bull market. jonathan: went to goldman sachs say to us in the past 24 hours? tom: 4900. came out of the cornfield yesterday and said, by more stocks. jonathan: the reference. the difference between you and i, i listen to you and you don't listen to me. lisa, the equity market in the u.s. and europe. 10 straight record highs. lisa: a lot of people looking past the delta variant, past the idea of the friction we are seeing ongoing and toward another era in which the central brain -- central banks are printing. there is no reason for them to withdraw. there is no alternative. the question i have, where is the distribution of
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profitability going to be? we continue to see dispersion. jonathan: what are we talking about? not the delta variant, not supply-chain restrictions out of china. lisa: the other thing we're not talking about is how this affects consumer sentiment. it is affecting their willingness to spend. how much does that dampen the recovery? jonathan: if it is like a summer friday. your equity market shaping up as follows -- yields about a basis point all over the place the last week, grinding higher to the week, to 134. lisa: the drama is overwhelming on this friday. 8:30 a.m., mentioning the supply chain disruptions and perhaps in china in particular one of the
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major ports selectively shut down certain areas. how much do these disruptions affect import prices? how much does this increase the cost for companies, manufacturers bringing products in? we saw that yesterday with the ppi data how much that is crimping some of the profitability. 8:30 a.m., we did further into this. the head of blackrock investment joining us. is there any reason to not buy into this rally? person after person basically saying even the bears are saying well, there certain areas that can sell up over the most part will probably find gains. calling for huge selloff. talking about how much consumer spending limit -- sentiment being affected. delta variant and inflation.
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longer-term basis. not over the next year. do they buy into the transitory story? jonathan: thank you very much. comments to client saying we believe the bond yields last week -- tom: really interesting. here's the probe word. ambiguity is going to be the study this weekend. if it moves from point a to point b, what is one of two outcomes whether stocks, commodities, jackson hole, whatever, the countless ambiguities right now are remarkable. jonathan: let's bring in gilles moec. august 26, because no one is interested in august 13 it
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seems, jackson hole, what are you looking for at that gathering? >> i would be surprised if we have a formal announcement from him in jackson hole because over the last quite a few years, the fed has tried to tone down the importance of jackson hole when it comes to actual policy announcements. it is a place where you debate, where you lay the grounds, share your announcements, but you don't use it to be precise about what you want to do. my guess, pretty consensual discussion from everybody from the fed, making it clear, hey, we may have some differences in the exact timing when we taper, but tapering we will. this is the coming months. as a frenchman, i have trouble -- consensual conversations.
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they are all moving in the same direction. tom: define data dependency for us. it is a theme jackson hole, waiting and waiting. define this new data dependency of this new fed. gilles: i don't think i can answer any precise question at this stage because on tapering, ok, it is a matter of months when it would formally known relies policy -- normalize policy. this is where i think we will have to learn by watching and follow their stride. before the pandemic struck, honestly, there was no consensus on where the natural rate was in the u.s., no agreement were the equity interest rate was in the u.s..
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it has become even more unclear in the crisis. i think it will be extremely prophetic. again, not much they can say at this stage on what they intend to do the next two or three years. lisa: equity analyst after equity analyst saying it will keep going up, more than previously expected. we have incredibly good data coming out of the labor market, inflation -- where if you want to see inflation if you start to see recovery side all over the place. why are economists not changing their projections after the past two weeks? why is it fitting into everyone's economic side if it is not on the analyst side? >> economists usually try to focus on what the fundamentals are telling us a probably check with the impact the beginning of
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normalization would mean. at the moment, yes, the financials are telling a great story. earnings are doing well. worried about the delta variant, but it seems the capacity of dealing with it is higher than we thought, higher than we feared. still, there is an elephant in the room. how is the market going to behave once we stop losing this massive constant purchases of risk-free assets and not so risk-free assets? in the u.s., it is a matter of months. i guess those economists trying to work the models and start to think, hey, once i take out from deflation, those means of dollars in purchases, where should the market be? this is probably what makes us a bit grumpy and probably comes with the trade.
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jonathan: is that just a guess? how much -- what do you look for? >> you can try to come up with correct models which makes sense because we've had years and years now of experience of an increase in the size of central banks. years of experience with q. week. you can -- it is not that complicated. you can actually estimate the act of the change in central bank on equity prices. that is not rocket science. the question, though, what is really complicated to estimate is the psychological impact. the fact even if the central bank stops buying and then the model is going to tell you, hey, x that is% -- x% less, now the
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market knows if something goes wrong, central banks are going to act operably faster and in a bigger way than thought. that is what is really hard to estimate. direct impact, yes, you can come and there are lots of models that do that. jonathan: we have to leave it there. great final thoughts. chief economist, the conditioning, tom, this market and market participants something mohamed el-erian talks about a lot. what is going to change things? right now so many people are willing to look through it, keep looking through it. tom: the comfort i have, and i will go to david costa here, you have to go to the microanalysis of what corporations are actually doing. you have joe feldman today raising estimates, walmart raising the price target -- at
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target, i should say. looking at the analysis of what q3 and q4 look like. look at the equity market yesterday. i missed it. i was taking the "surveillance" nap. jonathan: southwest airlines says it is already hitting summer business. the walt disney company, tom, basically said "good to go" with that the art business. and streaming as a blowout, too. tom: we need to get acclimated, folks. this afternoon, the real yield where the rumor is jonathan ferro will go the distance. jonathan: whenever you tease my show, i do wonder what you've done to me behind the scenes that is made you feel a little bit guilty to do that. i'm not sure what i feel about that line "going the distance." tom: lost in translation. jonathan: from new york city --
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i have one you can all share if you want. from new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ >> u.s. regulators have authorized giving an extra coronavirus vaccine dose to the most vulnerable people, americans with weaken amine systems will be allowed to get the third shot including organ transplant recipients and patients with conditions like cancer. and afghanistan, the taliban putting more pressure on the government just weeks before the u.s. withdraw. now estimated to hold over two thirds of afghanistan. the u.s. plans to send in some 3000 troops to evacuate some personnel from the american embassy in kabul. disney rising today, reported better than expected quarterly results and jumped in streaming customers. the online tv business disney+.
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theme park are running ahead of the course and just ended despite the coronavirus surge caused by that delta very. european soccer organization is putting the final touches on what could be a $7 billion rescue package, designed to help teams in europe recover from the impact of the pandemic. the rescue also would impose new salary caps prevent teams with superrich owners from gaining an unfair advantage. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is "bloomberg." ♪
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i think it is very important to do it because every decimal point of rise in temperature is remarkably compounded in the damage that it does. we are at 1.2 degrees today. you see what is happening. imagine what happens when you are three degrees or so, which
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is the track we are currently on. >> very confident we can hit that dividend policy. what we have seen so far this year is capital to continue to increase too much better place than where we thought we would be at this point. pres. biden: here in america we paid the highest for
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prescription drug costs of any developed nation and in the world. these prices put the squeeze on too many families and strips them of their dignity. i have instructed the federal drug administration to get these genetic drugs to consumers faster. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. price action this friday morning, equity market come all time highs. yields are higher, lower by couple of basis points. euro advancing a little more than attentive 1%. that is the price action. the latest out of washington, tom. nine moderate democrats have worn speaker pelosi they won't vote for the budget resolution and this infrastructure is passed first. things getting a little more complex in washington.
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tom: when the facts change, they change and we change and emily wilkins changes. yesterday the facts changed with an absolutely stunning census 2020 that showed all of the experts wrong. the one that got it right is emily wilkins. let's start with iowa. is this heaven? no, it must be iowa. des moines boomed. phoenix, larger than philadelphia. new york city gaining over 600,000 people. nobody except michael bloomberg predicted that, former mayor and also a member of this platform. how did your world change with the 2020 census? emily: in washington, we already got the big news a few month ago which states were going to be moving in which would be gaining seats. the fact you're seeing california not gain a new seat,
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lose ac for the first time that texas picked up two, when you look at them abs, some of the state, especially benefiting republicans, particularly because publicans have the upper hand in drawing these maps. that is another thing we are keeping an eye out, which lawmakers will be in trouble in november. tom: to jon's point, the moderates yesterday finally took the high ground with the census and they have a new power versus what they had the middle of this week. is that true? emily: the moderates have shifted their tone. the letter we thing this morning is much stronger in language than previously seen. moderates before said they had concerns and wanted infrastructure. now they are threatening those. the nine who signed this letter, that is enough to sink the budget resolution when that comes next week. the problem is if pelosi brings
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up infrastructure when the house convenes on august 23, august 24, progressives have said they will not vote for it because i don't have budget reconciliation. we're are on a collision course. either moderates will have to back down or progresses will have to back down from the stances they have taken have budget resolution and the process go forward. lisa: where is the popular support of this point? emily: it depends on the part of the country you're in. progressives can look at their constituents and advocacy groups and say we need to hold firm, but moderates have their own things to point to. they are the ones who need to get reelected. lisa: just to make it clear, what is the worst outcome for some of the progressives, to get nothing done without potentially also holding hostage this idea of going toward a more progressive type of agenda, $3.5
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trillion spending say we're not going to budge on the bipartisan effort unless you make a move on the other one? is that better for them politically than to say, look, we want to get something that they would can negotiate further later? emily: it bends -- it depends. right now, yes, their site what we need to do is get something done in childcare, health care, eldercare. they are willing to basically hold the infrastructure bill hostage in a way until they get those things done. they don't think infrastructure doesn't not for the constituents. sure, they're glad to have it. they are willing to support it. but they want to make sure you're getting the other things done as well. tom: are you looking for on the sunday talk shows to frame out what actually goes on next week? do we swing back to infrastructure or is there no other topic than the collapse of kabul in afghanistan?
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emily: obviously, afghanistan is a huge, huge story, last on the u.s. saying they will sit in 3000 troops to help americans leaving, the fact the taliban is rapidly taking over the provincial capital, that kabul could fall to them. it is a major topic was not given congress is on recess -- it is a major topic, given congress is on recess. do need to look at the budget resolution in the house and what the dynamics are there. infrastructure, look, maybe lucy will decide to move on it but she has been very from so far in saying she will not. right now the game is with the reconciliation budget resolution. if i hear anything about d.c. on the sunday talk shows, that is what i am expecting to hear. certainly come afghanistan. jonathan: emily wilkins, thank
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you. this week things starting to get tricky for this administration on both the domestic and international front as well. tom: it is a sea change week. i will let experts talk about that. i do take your point. on afghanistan, it is stunning the last 24 hours the rapidity, even the most experts -- looking at the soviet war, easily going back to 1979. jonathan: the domestic situation as well. the difference between nothing to maybe $3 trillion, fort wayne dollars in spending. -- $4 trillion in spending. tom: what happened this week i am guessing is the separation of the linkage of these two bills. maybe senator schumer will tell me i am not. jonathan: i will go there.
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a lot of people following washington. someone is going to be upset. lisa: president biden has always that he is trying to appeal to the voters. you look at the polls and they were very much for infrastructure. it is gotten clouded as the inflation debate has gotten ramped up, particularly by republicans, and the disagreement over the $3.520 plan. i'm wondering, which is worse, to get nothing done and basically seem like they're holding out for their ideals or at least get something done? jonathan: and they get into the priceage, too. the gas price issue. drug price issue. starting to catch up with them a little bit. just a little more reactive. tom: let's call it august grasping for straws. jonathan: that's what this is. tom: no, no, no.
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you're so sensitive this morning. jonathan: i am a sensitive guy, tom. everyone knows that. tom: believe. jonathan: i'm looking forward to a weekend of football. i am excited. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: live from new york city, good morning to you all. equity futures positive but almost 1/10 of 1% on the s&p. nasdaq basically unchanged. a second straight week again for the s&p 500. the bond market. last week, 129.69. this morning, 134.05. yields grinding higher through the week. real turnaround. market behavior important here. a willingness to look to look at the tension with the delta variant. restrictions building up in china as well. the dollar index in and around 93. 92.91.
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tom keene, this is what to keep your eye on as we go into next month and the september 22 meeting over the federal reserve. we start to get some divergence now between central banks. tom: absolutely. the dollar is a dynamic within a floating-rate economy. this goes to the real yield, look for it this afternoon. the dynamics are fluid and more subtle. we saw that in august. everything is recalibrating. jonathan: i agree. 92.91. the fx market has been a snooze the past couple of months. this is what market participants have been waiting for, some form of divergence. will we get that in the coming months with the ecb and the fed? tom: very true. right now a special movement for "bloomberg surveillance." jurrien timmer with fidelity,
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the global macro director. far more importantly, he comes from hallowed ground in economics. i cannot say enough of the importance. the equivalent is jp morgan's mansion 20 saved the country in 1907. you are in the met watching to hotel, breathing the same air as john maynard keynes from 1944. what they needed to solve in that room after world war ii was fixed currencies. we now have floating currencies. does that push away our gloom and worries because we can recalibrate from what they did at bretton woods and what we have done with floating exchange rates? jurrien: i think so. the problem with the gold standard was you always have your hands tied behind your
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back. in the great depression the fed had no tools to fight that. there were bank runs. they went to plus 10, plus 15%. it's incredibly damaging. ben bernanke back in the financial crisis said never again. we, in the fiat world, as the crypto people like to say. it's interesting how stable currencies have been. you look at jp morgan real effect exchange rate index for the u.s. dollar from 1970 to now, 50 years including the fiat period it is down, half a percent per year. that is some devaluation but not anything like people might think. he removed an anchor from the dollar and it's going to crash. negative half a percent, i will take it. tom: let's talk about hollowed
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ground. 82 devonshire on the chart room. you look at the chart room of fidelity. that was founded on that johnson, john templeton and john vogel and the rest. their long-term optimism of equity investment. the gloom crew has been wrong for 20, 30, 40 years. do you see any amendment to that optimism? jurrien: i do not. i study charts. i study history. i look at secular regimes. if you take the s&p or whatever you can call the index before the s&p existed from 1780 or so until now on a total return basis, it's about 6.5%. the nominal is about 10% to 11%. there are large swings and drawbacks and drawdowns. the market goes up 60% of the time. 40% of the time the market is
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going against you if you are invested in stocks. despite that 40% chance of a down market, if you stay in long enough, you will get that 10% to 11% over the long-term. what i look at the secular regime we are in from a technical point of view and compare it to the last secular regimes, 1949 to 1968, 1982 to 2000, we are on that point where those markets were. while the bears like to look at the p/e ratio, which is as high as it was back at the dotcom bubble, that's not what they are selling for. when i look at price to total cash flow, on that basis the market is valued at the same level as those other secular bull markets were at this point
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on their course. it suggests we have another five to seven years left. the s&p could be at 8000 by then. i remain constructive although we have this liftoff stance we have to contend with. kailey: here comes the gloom crew. how do you push back against people who say we brought forward so much in the gains and interest rates are so low that they don't have much room or any room to go further down, which has been one of the tailwinds behind equities for the past three or four decades. what do you say to people who say he will be a lower return regime and equities? jurrien: there is no question monetary policy has inflated asset prices. all you have to do is bring up the discount model and you can quantify this. bubbles this, bubbles that. you can quantify it. if you look in the discount rate of the cash flow markets, the
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cash model -- cash is the numerator, rates the denominator -- i can show the nominal 10-year yield based on where tips are trading is 100 basis points lower than it should be. that 100 basis points of reduced discount rate in the model translates to five additional pe points evaluation. you can show the market is 25% overvalued. that the asset inflation is 25%. i don't want to call it overvalued but that's a conversation that has no answer. if rates were to reset higher, which i do not expect to happen, but if they did, that would be a 20% decline in the pe. that is how you can connect the dots of what is fed policy doing to interest rates and what is that level doing to equity valuations. it is 25% asset inflation.
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will that mean revert? in the spirit of your question, my sense is it probably won't. rates will go up a little bit. more fiscal coming. the pga has been drawn down. i think the dynamics will point higher but that is how i come around to that. kailey: on the flipside do you perceive the federal reserve going to an era of negative rates or further lowering rates beyond what people thought was a lower bound to continue its reaction function of keeping monetary conditions as loose as possible? jurrien: i don't expect they will go to negative rates. i do expect after this liftoff dance as i like to call it of tapering and forward guidance and rate in the next five years that the fed -- we will state and the low interest rate, high
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qb era -- high q/e era. look at japan. the bank of japan, its balance sheet is 131% of gdp. it owns half the debt stock. it is buying half the flow of incoming supply. the fed owns a quarter of the u.s. treasury debt stock, but since 2019 has been buying about a third of the flow of treasuries. if the fed were to ramp up the asset purchase side and keep rates anchored at zero, in five years or so we might look more like japan. the long bond in japan has an annualized volatility of three, which is extremely low. in the u.s. the equivalent would be 11.
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it brings me back to the 1940's financial repression. the fed cap rates well below the inflation rate. i use that as a playbook. u.s. 1940's, japan currently as the two analogues where we might be in five years. jonathan: fascinating stuff and incredible stats. jurrien timmer. tom, sometimes we reflect on this. is this even a market anymore? it is less of a market that used to be in the bond market. tom: i think it is true. they are real distortions here. what bothers me more than any is the contrived scarcity of a lot of what i will call silicon technology enterprises. we have invented a contrived scarcity. maybe a story for a different day. jonathan: invented scarcity in the bond market, that's for sure. some days i don't even trade. kailey: what does that do move
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we get something like that in the united states? we would look more like japan. over that do in terms of the ability to react in this market? the bond market, the treasury market? tom: may have bring up something on a friday? it is a friday in august. i have the map of the university of mississippi medical center. thanks to our wonderful steve dennis. you can come out of the critical care unit in the weiser hospital for women. you can go over to parking garage b where they will have 50 covid patients and parking garage b in mississippi. jonathan: we are back to that and it is very sad. coming up, andy pekosz, bloomberg school of public health professor and meteorologist -- urologist. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: a divided u.s. supreme court has cleared the way for expedition proceedings to proceed in new york. justices blocked a provision that gave renters a shield of they are experiencing hardship because of the pandemic. they sided with landlords who said they have been devastated with an unconstitutional war. hospitals in the u.s. are being pushed to the brink by the latest coronavirus surge. more than a dozen states have faced severe personnel shortages. in texas and hawaii, hospitals are building tents for extra space. florida has tapped the national stockpile for ventilators. the head of the federal trade commission says antitrust should move more frequent lead to block mergers that threaten competition. it may weigh on a major exposition by the giant lockheed martin. the ftc is investigating their
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takeover of aerojet rocketdyne. philip morris international has moved closer to buying a british maker of -- they backed that tobacco giant's offer of a lower bid. they can raise their offer further. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika guida. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> these are for people who almost certainly did not get an
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adequate response to properly protect them in the first place, which is understandable. their immune system is compromised. when you have a compromised immune system you are not going to get the type of response most of the normal general population. jonathan: a bigger discussion this week about booster shots. that was dr. anthony fauci. good morning. here is the price action this friday morning. equities up about three points on the s&p, advancing .1%. yields up on the week but down on the session. the fx market, your-dollar firmer, stronger by about .1%. tom: an update of it everyone is riveted on, the delta variant. andrew truly has been a value add for well over 18 months.
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lisa wants to talk booster shots. i want to talk about the mystery of the decimal point when you look at percent. all the people who are vaccinated who now have a mask on and are worried about getting sick or shades of dying, whatever, the 1% is .01. the illness chance or death chance from the variant gets me out of .0001. do we really understand the fourth decimal place math of all of your world? dr. pekosz: there is such a focus now on the vaccine breakthrough cases because they indicate some weakness in the vaccine. i always try to turn it around to get to what you are talking about. that is the vast majority of vaccinated people are being protected. they being protected quite well from severe disease.
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and, symptomatic disease. what delta is showing us is it is in some ways a stronger variant that we have seen before. therefore if your immunity is a little weak, if the virus can get past the first bit of your immune response, it can take over and essentially make you quite sick. tom: the reality is fancy people like you and me know scientific notation. most america does not no scientific notation. how do we convey the mathiness and silliness of the fear we have right now? dr. pekosz: it is focusing on the positive. the high protection right is with the general population really needs to know. scientists such as myself, myriad scientists across the country are interested in the breakthroughs because that may tell us something about how to make a better vaccine and protect people better.
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the general population needs the focus of the fact that vaccines are working. the vast majority of cases in hospitals that are being diagnosed right now are in unvaccinated people. that tells us the vaccine is working. that is the twist on this we have to talk about. lisa: i hear that and everybody says that. as the mother of a child not eligible at this point, if i get infected and i can transmit the virus, even though i am vaccinated, it becomes a problem. what you say to people concerned about how that goes along and they cannot live life in a normal way until the delta variant is more under control? how do you communicate that will saying vaccinations work? dr. pekosz: it is the surge of virus infections that is causing some of these breakthrough infections.
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the risk to everyone for be lower but it would be much, much lower in vaccinated people because we would not be challenging them as frequently as we are right now with the way case numbers are increasing. the way we -- until we get case numbers under control, we cannot rely on one thing. you have to add things like masking and perhaps social distancing in certain situations to gain extra levels of protection because of all the virus infections going on in the country. lisa: a lot of people, especially if they are immunocompromised are concerned about getting sick, even if they have gotten vaccinated. there was a washington post article talking about booster mania and people trying to get a shot, third shots, fourth shots to fortify their immune system. is there any dangerous side effect of this? putting aside the supply constraints and all those issues, is there any physical danger in having four or five
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vaccines? where do we stop? dr. pekosz: there may not be a real benefit from getting multiple boosters. that is what people are studying right now. it may sound on paper like getting a booster -- there is nothing wrong with it. what is the worst that can happen? you get the same about of antibodies and probably more. the real focus is where the problem comes. the vaccines are providing pretty good protection as is without a booster. what we need to do is change the focus on getting more people vaccinated and minimize the focus on boosters, at least for the general population. you mentioned immunocompromised people, the elderly as well who are susceptible to infection. those populations may need to have a booster in other countries such as england and israel. they are focusing on giving users to the highly vulnerable populations. for the vast majority, the vaccine is providing pretty good
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protection and there is no real evidence a booster is going to significantly increase the protection. jonathan: andy, appreciate your time. andy pekosz. so much confusion around this. coming from the market's perspective and investors -- i'm using the u.k. as a template. they had a surge and carried on and pushed on his normal. there is a belief you can do the same here in the united states. willingness to keep looking through some of the data. tom: i will go with you on leadership in the united kingdom. the difference is i must admit as an amateur i'm a huge believer in a double shot vaccine in the u.k. -- and the u.k. led by getting the single shot effort out of front which appeared to be successful. jonathan: you mentioned certain parts of the country struggling. that's the story. the disparity in the headline national numbers state to state. tom: we will get in a lot of trouble but usc this -- but you will see this.
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the bottom line is a lot of institutions have done great work. i give the major shout outs to the miami herald to is pushback against some of the more conservative zeitgeist ends florida -- in the great state of florida. jonathan: it's been quite confusing at the best of times. lisa: i think a lot of scientific officials are confused as well. they are trying to track these things and get the message across. i wonder if they will be a change when the fda official approves -- officially approves this particular vaccines. a lot of companies are waiting until they mandate the vaccines. school are considering the same. i think that will potentially be a game changer. jonathan: if they make the call to mandate something being used at emergency use authorization, that's a difficult, tricky one to make. tom: it is all cultural. every nation is different.
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you know better than me. germany, how they caught up so quickly. every nation is different. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning. equity futures up .06% on the s&p. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the market is going higher. it is based on my perception there is never session ahead, no credit crunch ahead, and there are still higher earnings ahead. >> we will get worried about inflation. that could brings a stock market correction at some point. >> we don't think the fed is bothered by this degree of inflation. >> equities are reasonably valued in the context of interest rates. >> it has not even started yet. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: let's wrap up the trading week. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio. equity futures up on the s&p advancing .05%. we have been with it all week. record high after record high. 47 all-time highs this year on the s&p. tom: i shout

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