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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 28, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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very fast. >> about half the sectors are contributing. >> this trend of economic strength, while it bodes well, does not necessarily mean corrections do not happen. >> the reality is we will continue as an economy to deal with the pandemic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: it is said decision day. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" live on tv and radio, alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i am jonathan ferro. before we discuss the federal reserve, we have to talk big tech in america. tom: i think they are linked together. chairman powell is worried about two americas.
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there are these extraordinary companies that we will dive into today, we will get into amazon tomorrow. and their impact on america is tangible. jonathan: youtube, ad revenue up 18%. apple, they are warning about decelerating growth. growth. that is a conversation economists are having. tom: i go directly to our you were. i was looking at the earnings after the surveillance nap and the youtube revenue growth speaks volumes about not only google but the whole industry and the media business, as well. youtube's breakout numbers are jaw dropping. jonathan: the stocks tell a slightly different story. lisa: you have to wonder how much this was priced to perfection. apple's share is getting the biggest hit. there are slowdowns due to
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supply constraints, and some other issues, like the iphone cycle. to me, the numbers were stunning. 30% bigger revenues after taxes for the big three in the tech world. it was set 5% of the world gdp is tech spending and it is projected to double. jonathan: new revenue rectors in each segment and apple. equity futures in america on the s&p 500, down .2%. the bond market, a federal reserve decision, a chairman powell news conference, a basis point or two. the euro-dollar, 118.18. lisa: i'm interested to see if it will provide us any new information.
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8:30 a.m., we will get an update. not only are we talking about inflation with the federal reserve, but the implications exactly what you are talking about, the big getting bigger, the behemoths of big tech. 2:00 p.m., the fed rate decision we are talking about. 2:30, the press conference with fed chair jay powell, i want to hear what he has to say about inflation. is there any change around -- are they starting to soften security with the idea this will pass? how much are they setting up a discussion on bond purchases at the august meeting in jackson hole? the turn of tech earnings continues. facebook coming up with second-quarter results. interested to see if they mirror we saw with alphabet and google.
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that was the standout figure. jonathan: this started last week with twitter and snap, really, alphabet, google raising the bar for facebook after the close. tom: we will try to give you perspective this morning. this goes on to amazon tomorrow. amazon, this is joe feldman over at chelsea advisory group, margin expansion. joe feldman says you will look at operating margin at amazon from 6.6% up to 6.9%. he has abs revenue in two years going from $281 gazilion -- it is something you cannot get a grip on. jonathan: take the numbers they get with the likes of apple, amazon, alphabet, and at 20%.
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tom: what he knows is this is about ratios. what is so important, these juggernauts have cap the ratios and improved various ratios. jonathan: let's bring in steve, how would you frame this? steve: i would put it as the companies beating them across the board. tech numbers, complete blowouts. what is making the s&p earnings continue to rise are the concerns about peak earnings. we are watching the consensus estimates on the forward s&p earnings for 2023. those numbers are -- going up every day. the consensus is above the number we set.
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we are going to have to bump our numbers again. it is not just the tech numbers that are blowouts. if you look at the cyclical side of the economy, a lot of those companies are producing earnings growth numbers above 100%. when you combine it together, the overall outlook with the s&p 500, it is awfully good. tom: i want to talk about the famed ossian extrapolation, anyone with great here knows you have to look into the future. how far out can you extrapolate this tech miracle? product development, margin sustainability, revenue growth and on and on. how many years? two years? five years? stephen: i could look out for a decade and say the economy is
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going to be significantly bigger, probably at least 30% bigger that it is today. the earnings numbers will be a multiple of that. you just stay with long equities. in terms of how we price stocks and think about stocks, we are thinking about 2023. that is where the buck is heading. that is the one year out soon enough. people will start looking to that. we have been looking to that for a while now and that is why i keep coming back to those numbers. i know there is a big debate about peak growth, one of the problems that i think wall street has gotten fouled up with the economic activity is going on -- including the fed, in my view -- they are all using models that are traditional models. this has been a very
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nontraditional recession. usually, coming out of recession, -- you go into one because some sector of the economy is very weak. there is a lot of pain and angst. there is a lot of unemployment and it takes a long time to recover. you can talk about coming out of their and you are looking for the growth peaks out and the cycle starts to rollover. in this case, it has been goofy. the economy was going strong going into the covid lockdown. underneath the surface, it continue to run fine in the numbers we are punching up now are ridiculous. we have nominal gdp growth this year of 10%. next year, 7.5%. if you look at the underlying real gdp growth -- our numbers for 2023 will be closer to right -- they look aggressive on a
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year-over-year basis. if you just go back to between 19 and trend it out, you say even with those kind of punchy numbers in the near term, by 2023, the trend growth over these three years will be about 2.5% on the economy. that is not that courageous. same way with earnings. earnings numbers are to order 35, we will probably bump them to 250. you are looking at 9% earnings growth on the s&p over the last four years. we are just getting back to trends. lisa: that is definitely the reason why a lot of people have a lot of conviction in the long equities call. sticking with the tech behemoth, the strength we are seeing in their earnings is indicative of a broader strength in the economy, or indicative of a shift in the economy that is
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specific to these companies? stephen: look at google. the strength there was in cloud, advertising. that is a strength. with google, it is a lockdown play and a reopening play. as people start to advertise more, the place to go is search. the cloud build is strength, -- you are seeing a compounding effect, here. certainly google, one of the three big cloud players now, has a huge position. jonathan: look at the move, up by 50% to date. it is great to catch up and run through some of these record-breaking numbers from the likes of apple. apple down by 1%.
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perhaps some supply constraints, as well. they called it a drop the mic quarter, sticking with a $185 price target. tom: jim at citigroup takes 22 apple, forget about the gloom about margin shrinkage, jim goes from 28.8% up to 29.2%. the are doing this, jon, with corporate responsibility and apple increase. jonathan: we need to talk about this federal reserve decision. we are looking had to chairman powell pilled we will do that -- with chairman powell. we will do that at 6:30. alongside tom keene and esa brahma was, i am jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> federal reserve chair jerome powell and his colleagues are likely to emphasize patience. policymakers -- interest rates near zero at the end of a two day meeting. the delta variant is giving powell another reason to be cautious. deutsche bank -- it has led the german bank to raise revenue guidance. fixed income trading fell 11% in the quarter. deutsche bank's scrapped a cost target after a series of unexpected expenses. visitors from the u.s. and the european union -- instead of isolating, those travelers would have to take covid tests before
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leaving for the u.k. and after. in australia, sydney's month-long lockdown will be extended by at least another four weeks. coronavirus cases surged to another record. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am laura wright, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> -- will you require
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all federal employees to get vaccinated? mike and co-that is under consideration. jonathan: the president of the united states open to the suggestion. there has been a shift in this country. from new york city this morning, good morning. i am a jonathan ferro on this fed decision day. equity futures rolling over just a little bit in the last several minutes, now unchanged on the s&p. euro-dollar unchanged, when 18.12. tom: 125.1, to me, it is massive stasis before the meeting. right now, are bloomberg washington correspondent. i do not know who's in charge. i don't know if president biden knows who's in charge.
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you have all the answers. >> i certainly don't have all the answers. it feels like we are constantly two steps forward come up one step back. i would say the president says the cdc is in charge. the cdc says they are reversing the decision if you are vaccinated you can take off your mask. now they say you should be putting it on. you could potentially carry it to unvaccinated people. that is where the problem is -- the unvaccinated community. we see the biden demonstration potentially having the -- the biden administration having mandatory. lisa: how much pushback the administration has gotten, a recommendation to wear masks even if vaccinated. a lot of people saying it is confusing. how much pushback is there? >> a lot of people are saying,
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why is it happening now? the administration is saying the cdc has new data. clearly, this is a ton of pushback politically from the republicans. it is not just the white house mandating if you are vaccinated and you work at the white house you have to put on a mask. there are people in congress inc. if you are in the house or the hallways, you have to wear a mask. republicans are having pushback sing the should not be mandates. they do not want to go backwards. lisa: there are a number of recommendations that the u.s. should finally give full authorization to these vaccines. on a more fundamental level, it could give confidence in the inoculations. >> we are waiting for the full on fda approval. the president said we should get
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it before the fall or the end of the summer. some people are saying they are hesitant to take the vaccine because it is not a full fda approval. it was just an emergency approval. that could nudge some individuals who are hesitant. tom: i understand we are completely transfixed by january 6, we have a pandemic making its way forward. infrastructure has lost its way? or is it a part of your wednesday today? >> it has not lost its way. i am looking for a deadline. the deadlines have come and gone. the negotiations are continuing. we have a white house meeting with a top democrat from arizona. they are the senators preparing to potentially work through the weekend. what i would like to hear is what is the new deadline?
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tom: that is important. senator schumer spoke about, nobody gets to go home, which is serious talk in washington. now that you are doing the washington gig, you get to take off the month of august. today tell you that? >> that is the gig in europe, too. jonathan: deadlines just the same. >> same as the european union or brexit. you will hear it is time for crunch time talks, deadlines, etc., lawmakers do want a break. they want to go home in august. there is a deadline in the sense that we have a debt ceiling approaching. there are other issues being held up because they are trying to work on this bipartisan infrastructure agreement. the democrats want to get it done so they can work on their
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big plan, the $3.5 trillion package. jonathan: good to catch up. this is not a trick question. hands up who is waking up in new york city if you know the answer to whether you should be wearing a mask indoors? has that been mandated? i have no clue. tom: i decided last night and i failed this morning, i have to start carrying a mask again. lisa: i was reading a lot about this. that is what i do in the evenings. the justification here is they found new evidence that people who are vaccinated can transmit the delta variant to unvaccinated individuals. i have a child at home who is too young to be vaccinated. new york is in the bucket to wear a mask indoors. if you look at the guidelines, i would be required.
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jonathan: you have to wear a mask and your family home around your children? lisa: outside, when i go out, indoors, in different locations. i could contract the virus and transmit it to my younger son. incredibly confusing. what is the justification for getting inoculated if you can't change anything? jonathan: people understand -- they are trying to get their heads around what they are meant to do, if it has been mandated. is it voluntary? is it the honor system? lisa: i have no idea. what authority do restaurant owners have to ask people to put masks on? that was the justification for having a mandate. jonathan: the issue i have with this, people have been light on the administration, it was
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obvious a month ago the delta variant was in this country a month ago and would become the dominant variant in the next four weeks, so i'm not sure what has changed. if this is the science -- i am not here to dispute the science -- if this is it, ok. tom: the thing driving this right now -- jonathan: we saw this play out in the u.k., you knew it was that 50% one month ago, what were you doing? tom: it is america and we have to wait for the evidence. the evidence is there with hospitalizations, it is up the mississippi river, missouri. what is driving this debate is hospitalizations. jonathan: do you think that is good policy? tom: welcome to america. we did that with the moon, with our space coverage. you saw that as jeff bezos mentioned. jonathan: coming up, a ceo.
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fed decisions later. from new york city, good morning. tom keene and lisa abramowicz. it will be a fed decision day. this is bloomberg. ♪
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jonathan: live from new york city, good morning. here is our wednesday morning. s&p unchanged. this following some big earnings from big tech yesterday. the premarket moves. apple, alphabet and facebook will report later. this is apple. -1.38%. google is up by 3.9%. those names from the conversation for the federal reserve almost perfectly. the cyclical demand in this economy. terrific demand.
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look at the ad revenue at a place like you to come up 84%. then you have apple morning about slowing growth. supply chain constraints that could consist longer than you anticipate. that's talk down by 1.38%. -- that stock down 1.38%. the reason people think it will not do much at all. we will talk about that later. the bond market, last time, we were around 150 on tens. yields on 30's, the fact of the matter is, yields are lower. a gradual step toward tapering. tom: that is very important. will be joined later by a guest
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from da davidson. he will give us perspective on technology. right now, this is a joy, because he is retired from new york university, where he provided value. he is writing a book that will do better than good, the movie rights have already been sold. i want to go right to the heart of it. you say it differently, we have debt on top of it. you are looking at the debt crisis. is it here? >> it is on its way here. i agree with larry summers and people who are worried. it could lead to inflation.
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i have a second worry and a third worry. demand becoming expensive. unemployment benefits, -- increase the cost of production and fiscal policy not only with inflation. a combination of inflation and recession like we had in the 1970's. compared to the 1970's, much higher. the debt crisis, we could have
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inflation of the 1970's. tom: i want to go back to the old world. i want to go back to venice, when jonathan ferro's ancestors were doing battle with huge -- jonathan: for the record, they were in sicily. carry on. tom: we have seen over time, historic change. how does america do secular stagnation when we have a tech juggernaut but we are observing with apple, amazon, google, how do we bring their excellence over to the american experience? dr. roubini: even larry summers, who was worried about stagnation, is worried about inflation. we are facing problems. not just in the u.s., but in
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other parts of the world. they are against globalization, they are against technology. i worry that in spite of technology, there are other courses that will be using growth and increased cost of production. everyone wants to defend their own firms. the global supply chains and manufacturing from low-cost china to the u.s. and europe. china, korea, russia, we are
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expecting migration from south to north. decoupling between the u.s. and china because of this cold war becoming colder. the internet, financial close, climate change -- look at what is happening with the lack of water in california. there is a shock to food prices. cyberattacks leading to the destruction of production. hundreds of billions of dollars to try to reduce cyberattacks.
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that is putting outward pressure on wages. jonathan: just take a breath for a second. i want to frame what you are saying. you are making a supply-side call on the economy. people believe people will start to come back to the workforce from september onwards for you are saying that will not develop the way people participate. can we put some numbers on this? work through it with us. dr. roubini: i do believe there are some short supply bottlenecks. the fact school's did not reopen might have led some workers not
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wanted to return to the labor market. even when the short-term factors go away, some have to go with the medium term. backlash against inequality implies that in the past, a protection of labor. a $3 trillion cares program and a fiscal stimulus. workers, unemployed, left behind. it puts the labor in a situation of strength. it kills the balance of power.
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jonathan: let's pick up on this point. the shift away from capital and toward labor. this is a huge effort of this administration. lisa: we just have about one minute left. i am wondering what the fed can do with these circumstances driven by so many other factors. what can actually do to stall the push? dr. roubini: central banks, if i am right about overheating and stagflation, -- if they were to try to do that, debts are much higher now, you are crushing the bond market, the stock market.
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you are going to have a depression. between doing that and the choice of continuing to monetize -- having inflation gradually rise. inflation will come back. today, they will not be able to exit the market economy. jonathan: this has been so depressing. i have to tell people you are a happy guy. he usually smiles. he is a happy guy. dr. roubini: i am a happy guy, but i am realistic about the future. jonathan: you sound like lisa.
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a really important argument he is developing that we should spend time on, pushing back against the idea that the supply-side of the economy will respond, he thinks are some constraints that will persist. tom: what is so important about the stagnation debate is we are living in real time. i will go to the fed meeting today. never have we been more -- than we are now, including our participation of a slowing america. jonathan: can you imagine them? lisa: we would be happy. we would be discussing scenarios. tom: the suppression era. jonathan: from new york city, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro, this is bloomberg. ♪
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laura: i am laura wright. an investigation into the attack at the capitol. in the first public hearing, members of the panel made it clear that the former president's activities are a central focus of the probe. yesterday, there was dramatic testimony from four police officers who helped defend the capitol. there is a mask wearing requirement for lawmakers and others while they are on the house floor. violators can be fined. several staffers have tested positive in the last few days. an internal investigation into the scandal. the swiss bank failed to properly monitor billions of dollars of exposure that piled up while handling trades but
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generated little revenue. credit suisse lost $5.5 billion. simone biles will not defend her title in the individual or all around competition. she withdrew from the competition after withdrawing from the team competition. biles will focus on her mental health. u.s. gymnastics says she will be evaluated daily and take part in next week's finals. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i am the city council
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president, together with our colleagues, are moving forward requiring employees to be vaccinated. starting with the requirement the report vaccination status or weekly vaccination tests. jonathan: good morning, alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i am jonathan ferro. advancing two, three points, up by 0.6%. euro-dollar just slightly negative. tom: interesting data. look for special coverage this afternoon. out of edinboro, the prestigious residency at the university of chicago in emergency medicine, -- the world tour of
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difficult diseases. welcome. what comes after the delta variant? virology 101 keeps telling me these things keep changing. is the delta variant a pathway what is coming down the road? >> it is likely the virus will continue to mutate. it will be more transmissible. tom: how do we approach that? from a medical basis, we are working on vaccines, what do you want from our politicians? >> within the chaos we have right now, decreasing the amount of circulating virus. that is a public health challenge.
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it can be overcome by vaccinating individuals. that is what we need from our politicians, we need to promote vaccines, decrease the amount of circulating virus. so future variants are slower to evolve. lisa: one certainty will be vaccinations, at least the push to get them. pfizer reporting earnings, blowing all estimates out of the water. $33.5 million versus the prior forecast of $26 billion. that is the response health officials one. the concern is, how long we have to mask, unmask, remask,, scientific evidence versus saying we are done with the pandemic and we can move on. dr. hansoti not until we get to a place where we decrease the transmission of the virus.
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vaccinations will prevent transmission of the virus and decrease the likelihood of people getting sick and circulating the virus. there might be therapeutics which can stop the reproduction of the virus and kill the illness before transmits to others. i think the remasking is frustrating, but the only way to protect those who are unvaccinated or do not have an immune response is to go back to what we know works, masking. lisa: how much has to administration undermined its guidance by giving guidance and then undermining it with recommendations that seem confusing? dr. hansoti: on one hand we think, if the data was as safe,
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it would be undermining credibility. we are seeing a response to evolving data. on july 1, there was around 11,000 daily cases. today, it is 63,000 cases. we were not expecting it to be so high. multiple counties across the country were determined to be highly transmissible counties. tom: on radio, we are showing the number of countries that have resilience rankings. the united states is fifth. every pandemic is the same -- i would suggest my reading of scientists, all we do is end up isolating socially the unvaccinated, people rebelling against science. is that where we are heading? we will isolate the
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unvaccinated? dr. hansoti: we cannot isolate over 40% of our society, that is not how it works. we have to get on the same page. there are a substantial number of folks who have underlying conditions that cannot have a response. jonathan: quickly, want to clear something up. tom and lisa have children who are not vaccinia. two they have to wear a mask? dr. hansoti: be vaccinated, act unvaccinated. each of you could take on the covid virus your child if you are vaccinated or not. jonathan: what about me? i am vaccinated with no children
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at home. do i have to wear a mask indoors? what is the guidance right now? dr. hansoti: the guidance is, in indoor public places in areas of high transmission, you need to be wearing a mask. jonathan: thank you for clearing that up. johns hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine. i think a lot of people are confused about what they should and should not be doing, depending on where they live. tom: i think the maps speak volumes. this is not a national issue. it is hugely regional. there are certain places where it is really under stress and others where it is not. how do we deal with that? whether it is a lieutenant governor of new york who we spoke to repeatedly during the pandemic or dr. hansoti, the answer is to get vaccinated. jonathan: some big numbers from
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pfizer. lisa: to give you a sense of vaccine revenue, pfizer is expecting $33.5 billion of revenue from the vaccine versus the expectation of 26.5 billion from earlier in the year. across the board, beat, beat, beat and the covid vaccine driving a significant part of this. who is paying for that? it is definitely showing they can ramp up production with about 3 million doses by the end of december and that can make money. jonathan: a vaccine revenue number, and not a prophet number. you said a revenue number, i just want to make that clear. people are talking about the huge profits, $33 billion.
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lisa: that is good to point out. it will be an ongoing debate. jonathan: lisa abramowicz, tom keene, jonathan ferro. equity futures are basically unchanged. coverage for the federal reserve ramps up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> growth is going to slow. to some extent it is inevitable. >> it is important to keep in mind that this cycle has been proceeding very fast. >> we are already in the decelerating upward revision pace. >> this kind of economic strength, while it bodes very well, doesn't necessarily mean that corrections don't happen. >> the reality is we are going to continue as an economy, globally and domestically, to deal with the pandemic. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: chairman powell just a few hours away. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance, " live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. your equity market positive 0.05 dissent -- 0.05%.

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