tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg July 22, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
down to the opening ceremony of a games like no other. david: that's where we go nine hours from now. just about 1000 i think will be allowed in those opening ceremonies. >> the athletes have to put on the metals -- the medals themselves, i was reading. >> i think you test positive within six hours, you've got to drop out. david: well, you should. it is friday. 1% on the psi 300. we are down about 2% on that stock. just watch very closely.
we are ending the week flat. the earnings story is completely different. let's check some things up because it has also been about ecb, a bit about falling yields in china. as far as german bund's are concerned, down a fourth straight. when it comes to china, we are down i've straight weeks, so to 92 right now. tokyo is closed today, but if we were trading, we would be a little bit higher on that yield. the other big story is what is happening overnight and the big scoop we had and the whole list of possibilities when it comes to the punishment we might see for companies and chinese regulators. it is not playing out as far as i guess the tech index is concerned, but keep in mind, we are down about 30%, 35%, even 40% in some cases. most are down.
yvonne: that was on morgan stanley cutting it, the price target. a lot of questions about what this means for chinese tech companies or any kind of chinese company that will list in the u.s. now. we have seen this is becoming one of the worst ipo's of the year. take a look at what we've been seeing across other types of stocks. the only one that has been worse has been are lx technology, a company based in hong kong. that stock is down some 50% from ipo levels. the next one, which also has been going through this china regulatory scrutiny. rishaad: 20 companies so far this year had plans to raise about 1.4 billion dollars from ipo's in new york. that has probably gone by the wayside. what we have is a movement that people who were planning to list
in new york may list in hong kong. if you list in new york -- in hong kong, you get about 2%. it is not as lucrative, certainly, but you get what you cannot in hong kong. david: they did get approval for that massive listing, could be approval on the mainland. $70 billion, 80 billion u.s. dollars, before and approaching that ipo, it was closer to about 100 billion dollars in the private market. $40 billion is the market cap following these different issues. rishaad: for more on this, let's
get to our asia executive editor. what is being made of this? we've also got this other part of it, which is we are talking about something like $2 trillion worth of shares. >> that's right. china has been quite an amazing tech story with many startups that have gone public and raise money in the u.s. and hong kong, as you mentioned, and it was one of the big, promising startups early on. it took a bit longer to go public than some of the others, but it was able to finally get out last month, as you guys have written about. the issue here is that the company did proceed with this ipo despite some pushback from regulators. they had concerns, and in the wake of that ipo, regulators viewed this decision by the company as sort of a challenge
to their authority. sources tell us they are looking at a range of entities that could be very serious. there's also this idea that perhaps they would force the company to delist or withdraw its listing. it is not clear how that would work since they went public in the u.s., but it would be a pretty extreme step at this point. david: do we have an idea -- do we now at least have an idea of the rough possibility of timing on when these decisions might come? >> we reported about a week ago that regulators have begun on-site inspections, and they have started this process. we anticipate it will take a few weeks. it is important to say that this idea of severe penalty is is still in early stages. they could still change their
mind about exactly what those penalties will be, but were told to expect something more serious than what happened to alibaba, the e-commerce giant. they paid a fine of 2.8 billion dollars, the biggest so far, and they had to change operations. if it moves in that direction, we are talking about serious and locations. yvonne: plenty of questions. our next guest says investors have had a long and proper engagement with chinese growth stocks. they are banking on the old, easier regulatory environment returning, and erroneous assumption. had to set it up for you perfectly.
>> great to see you guys again. i have been bullish on asia and equities in general for over a year. we have been bullish on china for almost four years, but last december, we downgraded from overweight to neutral, and my concerns were regarding the credit cycle coming down. the regulatory environment is aggressive and unhelpful to equity holders, and i believe that that will continue because a lot of our clients feel this is a buying opportunity. >> for reason, right? >> i don't think they are cheap at all. that is the key point. in our models, chinese growth stocks are about 60%, 70% overvalued. the chinese names really take the cake, so what i'm telling clients is this regulatory, i guess difficulties -- these are
not going to go away because i think there is a convergence between what the communist party is thinking and what the chinese government is thinking. the note on these listings was jointly written by these entities, so to me, that is a very weighty statement, known only that a regulator would write this, but that this is the general analyst of the communist party. i feel like for the reasons that you mentioned -- antimonopoly, pro-competition, national security, these great companies being allowed to buy these, and also we don't want a fintech bubble, so i think these are not going to go away, so my recommendation is we have some great companies in these sectors in countries outside of china -- australia, japan, korea, even aussie on's -- even asean's come
to mind. while big cap chinese tech are not doing well, when you look at the china, it is of 20% year to date. small-cap innovative tech companies are doing quite well. yvonne: there are still people that are more optimistic than you. " from one analyst says they have trouble determining how the scenario could possibly help the party deliver on its five-year and longer-term projection. they say it is a buying opportunity. how do you respond to investors like that? >> i think people feel that just because the stock is down 30% to 40% from its peak, it is cheap, so if these names were undervalued or fairly valued or moderately valued without the overhang for the anticipation it
will go away, sure, it is a buying opportunity, but my point is i thought they were expensive . i still think they are pretty expensive, and surely with all these new regulations that i don't think are going to go away, your return on capital, total market growth resumption's, reasonable rate resumption's, the amount that you can monetize asset growth resumption's, i think they all need to be pared down, and you can do that when you are 60% overvalued. i think it is a bit tough to justify. rishaad: what is actually driving this? is it purely the tech side of things? what is driving the regulations? >> the factors that we sort of talked about. if it is the u.s. or china, they do not want powerful monopolies to dominate certain sectors.
there is enough research that tells us when you get massive monopolies in a few sectors, it is really bad for innovation by the other guys in that sector because they simply cannot compete with you. i think given the political alignment in china, i feel that you need to have some sort of i guess similarity of opinions between various parts of society and if it is companies, if it is the education sector. i think it is not so much a grab for power but a realignment of iva sector views to be aligned -- private sector views to be aligned with the national development world. david: this is the last question for this segment. your research has shown that growth stocks and their forces
have been tied to central bank balance sheets. it is almost a perfect correlation to be in tech if balance sheet's continue to go up, so if it is not china and not the u.s., where do people look? usually those two places is where you get the most bang for your buck. >> i think you actually do need to look at the u.s., absolutely. i think it is they found of a lot of innovation in these sectors -- i think it is the font of a lot of innovation in these sectors. people look at india and the software sector, some new listings, and of course, korea and taiwan and now even in asea n, you're getting new listings. by the way, these countries, because they are further behind
china in terms of adoption rates and how much money they have, i think the potential growth in other countries might just be faster, and they have a benign regulatory environment. david: ajay will be rejoining us in a couple of minutes. there's an issue of a pandemic we have to talk about. bloomberg television midday in hong kong, followed by the u.s. addition. rishaad: the white house accuses china of being irresponsible and stonewalling an investigation into the origins of covid-19. beijing insisting there is zero
evidence to support the lab leak theory. christine lagarde says the ecb will not hinder the progress of the current economic recovery by withdrawing support to early. ok u.s. senator amy klobuchar has introduced a bill to make online platforms including facebook and twitter, legally liable for health misinformation. democrats saying the misinformation about the vaccine was killing people. the director of opening ceremonies was sacked a day before they were set to take
place because of a discovery of a 1990's video that shows kobayashi joking about the holocaust as part of a skit. with the director out at the last minute, it is unclear how the opening ceremonies will be held. david: let's tell you what is coming up on the show. brands sponsoring the limits which are set to begin in about nine hours, with a private equity investor who focuses on sports and entertainment. yvonne: just ahead, a fresh rounds -- a fresh round of luck in and restrictions in asia. we will look at the impact of the delta strain next. this is bloomberg. ♪
rishaad: the delta variant has continued to drive a surge of covid cases across asia and with low vaccination rates, that means covid cases are rising more than in other parts of the world. this is having a huge impact on the economy and indeed, reopening's as well. >> i think we really can see that impact of low vaccination between indonesia and the u.k.. both places seeing about 50,000 cases a day. indonesia, more than 1000 people are dying. u.k., about if he. yvonne: vaccine rates are still low. how is that impacting some of these asian countries? >> in asia, the issue really is
a lack of supply. it is getting pretty low. they see that rate catching up to where the u.s. is. it is going to mean that for that 50% uncovered, the delta strain is just going to rampage through. david: rachel chang leads our coverage on the latest on the delta variant. i'm going to take the em part of your mandate and ask you about the delta variant. should i be concerned? >> absolutely. sadly in emerging markets, the vaccination rates are very little. supplies just are not there, and these countries are way behind the curve, but i'm optimistic that by the end of this year or early next year, rates will be much higher and there will be more supply. from a market perspective, you
look what happened in india a few months ago, obviously, it is exceptionally tragic in the number of cases and deaths, but the market is up about 30% year to date. something similar in indonesia right now where the case numbers and death numbers are moving up, but yet currency, bond, and equity markets are reasonably resilient. they are looking ahead, expecting a reopening by the end of the year or early next year. rishaad: when we look at what is happening, it seems the -- this part of the world has fallen behind. we see developed nations changing now and becoming more hawkish. what is your thinking on this? >> i think equity markets are
highly correlated to the size of global central bank balance sheets. while i keep hearing that the settled banks are more hawkish, i'm not seeing it. christine lagarde said they would not be tightening prematurely because the ecb did do that in 2011 with horrible consequences. i'm sure they did learn, and chair powell talked about the same thing. our economists think that the central bank balance sheets think that the g4, china included, will probably rise by 1.7 trillion u.s. dollars, and i will take that because 1.7 trillion dollars is not pocket change, and it will keep interest rates subdued and asset prices high, so i think the most
important thing to look at is the global central bank balance sheet, and they are expanding. even if they have a slower pace next year, that is still ok. yvonne: have a great weekend. coming up, christine lagarde says the ecb has learned from past errors and will not derail the current economic recovery. details from that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
, and we have people saying the policy is too aggressive and may well push it -- end up pushing inflation higher than they intended. yvonne: i have always had tensions between the bundesbank, so there were questions about what this means. are they just delaying raising rates out of negative territory, or is there actually more qe in the pipeline? here is madame lagarde. >> it is not intended to keep interest rates low for longer. it is intended to deliver on our objective. it is intended to reach the target of 2%. this is what we want to do. frankly, the quicker we can do that, the quicker we can use those other tools that we have
not used a lot in the last two quarters, which is interest rates, but we are not there. david: you're looking at movers. bund yields are actually down for a fourth straight week. very brief look across your stock movers as we speak. not just china, across asia. can we get that up? one big mover, though, guys -- have a look at this. up over in south korea and up substantially.
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david: welcome back. looking at our bloomberg screens because what started out, and you look at the end, the closing on wall street and how futures were positioned for today, you wouldn't have imagined this would be the state of equity markets. southeast asia down about .1%, the latest market to open up. we have some experts coming out of thailand, 1% out of manila. hang seng index down about 1%, csi 300, talked about consumer
staples dragging that one lower, that one, .25% higher. high in there has been that divergence, yvonne with a preference of far. yvonne: may be more in terms of japan, but you've got the olympics and what's going on there. that's led to eyebrows, as well. in thailand, the ministry set to release june trade data. a bloomberg survey says it likely rose from a year ago, and malaysia reports inflation numbers. our survey shows cpi prices probably grew 3.5% in june from a year earlier after rising 4.4% in the previous month. singapore's only to covid cases are on the rise. the city's estate found 162 new cases from a fishery report.
rishaad: let's have a look at some of those first word news headlines. we've got chinese regulators, unprecedented penalties for the public offering last month. the ride-hailing joint's decision to go -- giant's decision to go public despite opposition from the government. bloomberg is told the punishment could include fines, delisting, or withdrawal of didi's u.s. shares. spike in covid cases show no sign of letting up as the delta variant continues to spread. national cases are likely to rise to 307,000 for the week ending august 14, up from 39% last week, florida and missouri especially hard-hit states. nationally, those infected are skewing younger. meanwhile, president joe biden says thanks to the chief of
cuba's military and its interior ministry in the beginning of usa retaliation, it comes after havana's crackdown following protests, biden saying he condemns mass detentions and sham trials, which he says cubans are being subjected to. human rights groups says up to 160 people are being jailed over the latest protest, biden also hosting labor leaders at the white house as a bipartisan group of senators neared agreement on the debate on infrastructure legislation after senate republicans blocked debate on the $579 billion plan, a group that gop centrists said they will consider an amended bill. and that's a look at the first word. david: ok, let's look at geopolitics, wendy sherman heading to china on sunday, where she is expected to meet her counterpart. tensions remain high between china and the u.s. you have the biden white house seemingly intense on maintaining
this tough stance on beijing. let's bring in bruce einhorn to talk us through this story. it seems this trip was not going to happen. we're now here. how do the two sides resolve this impasse? bruce: so the impasse was over, wendy sherman was going to meet. the chinese had talks with the vice minister. but the problem for the americans is that he's a lower rank than wendy sherman, so the americans saw that as a snub. the u.s. press, that's the way things were done in the past. so ultimately, the two sides resolve this problem. wendy sherman will have talks and a meeting, so both sides can claim victory on those. yvonne: but bruce, getting an agreement to talk seems pretty low bar if you're measuring progress. what does this tell us about the
state of u.s.-china relations now? bruce: that they're not great. this is going to be the first high-level visit between u.s. and chinese diplomats since the really acrimonious talks that took place in alaska with tony blinken and his chinese counterparts earlier this year. and it comes at a time when president biden is really focused on trying to build a united front among allies, democratic allies focusing on china just within the last week. the president has warned american business about how things are changing in hong kong, the u.s. and allies have also blame china for the microsoft exchange hack that took place earlier this year. rishaad: right, will we've got the possibility the meeting between joe and xi jinping. give us a sense of how they would meet and any level of high-level engagement.
bruce: the two presidents have not met since biden took office, and biden's top asia advisor, kurt campbell, has said one concern they have is that even meeting with china's top diplomats have limited value because they're not in the inner circle of president xi. and so getting to a president meeting could help resolve a lot of that. possibility is there's the g20 meeting later this year. both presidents are scheduled to attend that so it's possible there might be a meeting then. a lot will depend on how things go when wendy sherman has her meeting with one he and has her talks. david: bruce einhorn on all the latest between beijing and
washington. and as we look forward, guys, to that meeting between the two presidents, it depends on where these imports in the trade war and the tariffs because if you look at the data, it looks as if the trade did not happen. you look at chinese imports of american goods -- can we get it up, please? have a look on our screens. they're actually back to trend growth. here's the trade war. here's the pandemic. that's where we are. 13.6 billion is the average right now. rishaad: not just in china. taiwan, south korea, you're seeing on the bloomberg trade track, above average trade growth taking place right now. so it's not this bifurcated world we're talking about. the deglobalization, it's here. yvonne: and you talk about the covid origins, that's going to make it more complicated to get any negotiations on trade because under all that, you have the who wanting a second phase
of this investigation, china saying no, and now the biden administration and the white house saying this is dangerous. that's all happening under the surface now, as well. david: tokyo, i think. yvonne: live pictures. rishaad: these are live images coming through of tokyo, just hours away -- what, 8:00 p.m. local time is when the opening ceremony is for this official start of the delayed olympics. can it go ahead without any more controversy? we've had plenty of that this far. -- thus far. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ rishaad: 11:39 in tokyo. that's the scene outside the stadium there in tokyo as we're counting down to the start of these olympic games, delayed by a year. the governor of tokyo indeed, torchbearers, are among those participating, the final torch being placed in a celebration cauldron. yvonne: it's getting more exciting now. rishaad: some top of a robot doing that now.
yvonne: going to have to with covid restrictions. let's bring in crewmate maury outside tokyo. we're starting to see more action this morning. >> yeah, that's right. it's been a crazy morning because up until today, the excitement feels -- always felt a little muted, and now we just switched locations and we walked through these credits treats along the stadium. it's packed with people on their phones looking up. the reason being is that there will be five jets flying over tokyo olympics stadium here. to create these rings and everybody is super excited. i'm guessing it might have to do with the fact that these ceremonies will have more -- no spectators. no one can go in except the 950 people related to the olympics and journalists. this is their only chance to see
something live and in person. we have a lot of people out here. it's a four-day weekend here because of the tokyo public holiday. they really get people excited for the olympics. david: and they do look like it somewhat. so what's going to happen today? we've been counting down all morning. take us through what is on the agenda and what happens tonight. kurumi: yeah, even getting here was a challenge. the director was fired just one day before the opening ceremony because of a holocaust joke he made in a video in a skit from 1988. this whole saga of the olympics just made worse and worse, and we're finally at this day. we didn't even know it was going to go on and we got word it will. i got -- i will be inside the
stadium to witness it in person. i can't wait to share some of that later on. for now, it's going to be just 950 people watching in the stands. rishaad: kurumi, these games have been mired in controversy. how has that affected the debate in tokyo, and how has it affected the mood there, as well? kurumi: well honestly, throughout my reporting, i've been seeing protests. everywhere i go, the opening of the olympic village a short while ago, and there were protests everywhere you go, whether a thomas falk visit, you see a group of people gathering in tokyo, a lot of those public polls, public opinion says they are against the olympics during the state of emergency, so today is the first time i'm seeing excitement for the games.
it has to do with the opening ceremony and i think the flying of the rings, but we are seeing team japan played soccer last night and won the game. i think we're getting there, but it's been a long, long road. rishaad: bloombergquint take reporter kurumi mori there in tokyo. a dilemma of whether or not to tie their brand to an event that has failed to garner significant public support. the sports and entertainment have equity, worked with many sponsors over five olympic games and i'm sure you never seen anything quite like this market. what are you making of it from the sponsor's perspective and the dilemma they're facing? >> yeah, it's really been an
incredible journey and these games are a game of many firsts, first games vince -- been postponed, first it with no spectators, first where they are not sponsoring actively. so sponsors, domestically, it's really been horrible. for sponsors globally, not so much. so we need to view it as very much with two sets of eyes, one domestic, one international. selina: -- yvonne: marcus, we are talking about this robot holding the limbic torch right now. this is the new normal when it comes to covid here, and very japanese, i guess, when it comes to tech and how they're going to start to kick off these games. marcus, the big news this week was toyota, one of the biggest olympic partners pulling out their ads in japan.
d think this was the right move by toyota -- do you think this was the right move by toyota? marcus: i think that's a very japanese question. toyota is not pulling them out of the world. you see these games as a global property. so from that perspective, i think, you know, the impact it had on the domestic sponsors that have paid over $3.5 billion just for domestic japanese rights have really been tremendously bad. from a global perspective and what the other tough sponsors are doing around the world, the impact hasn't really been that dramatic. we know that nbc, the u.s. broadcaster, has sort -- sold more ads than the real games, so
things have globally been somewhat normal. domestically, it's been really a challenge. david: marcus, david here. the cost of posting something like this comes to mind because yesterday we were talking about insurers and then needing to -- their exposure. we have the world cup next year and feeling fixed. i guess, does this increase the costs of hosting such a big sporting event and who bears the brunt of this cost? marcus: yes, the hosted contract at the moment makes the iac the only party that can, in theory, cancel the games. it can't be done by either party. will this change? i don't think it will change for brisbane, but in the future, sure -- certainly insurance premiums will skyrocket. we have seen the budget, just
the one year extension from 2020-2021, by $3 billion. that's almost the entire revenue that was raised by the tokyo organizing committee, was just spent by expending the games -- extending the games and not adding any value. so it is very likely to see an increase in costs as we go forward. rishaad: cost perspective, but don't have the same allure as they used to in the days of your . are people going to become more reluctant to want to host these olympia? marcus: that has been a discussion for many years, and history has shown that once it was either a scandal of members, it was a political move, anything that happened in the past has usually not transferred forward. so the lure of the games
continued, certainly over the last 50 years. so my bet at the moment would be that the games would continue to attract interest and we probably will, you know, not have a negative effect on the ioc and the revenues. david: marcus, as always, a pleasure to have you on the show. finally we're here. it's a strange summer games, but marcus john out of sports capital advisors. a brief look across your markets. as we were having the conversation, taking its toll across the market. you see the top of your screen, philippines, 1.1% on the csi three 700 -- csi 300. here's how that breaks down. 20 out of the 21 or 22 are actually down substantially
within that market. the last couple of minutes or so has seen some curbs and restrictions out of the philippines, 1.3%. consumer and discretion taking a massive hit on the back of whether it's travel restrictions and stricter rules within the capital as far as movement is concerned. according to local media, doesn't bode well when it comes to momentum. we were hoping to get gains today. but we are looking at the msci pacific here, by the way, no buying signal emerging just yet. far from it still at this point in time. yvonne: still watching from property stocks, as well. it still leads to a lot of questions about the financial risks we're seeing in that part of the specter -- the sector. china regulators will strengthen the control on financing of the property sector and improve existing financing rules for
these developers, so you are seeing soon act china down close to 3% and you're seeing ever brand once again after that brief rebound, down 5%. rishaad: yep. this is all the rhetoric to the aftermath with the ongoing drama that is ever grant at the time being. we're going to be back in a couple of minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ yvonne: a quick check of business flash headlines. lackluster sales forecast for the third quarter, indicating its chit business is continuing to lose market share in the face of stiffer competition. sales in the current period will be about $18 billion, slightly below analyst projections. however, the new ceo says growth will resume in the second half, when he expects the global ship -- chip shortage to bottom out. twitter boosted sales forecast for the current period after second-quarter numbers went beyond estimates. it's now expecting revenue to be up to $1.3 billion as global events like the olympics drive up advertising. twitter added 7 million users in the second quarter and sales jumped 74% to $1.2 billion. the feels a long way from twitter ad prices a year ago,
when many brands pulled out at the height of the pandemic. -- sales nearly doubled, way past estimates. snapchat users exceeded expectations at 293 million. the company found users agreed to iphone tracking more than its peers. snap and a fitted from a digital advertising and e-commerce boom during the pandemic. rishaad: a look at the key events coming up, and reliance industries, earnings, barney, perhaps some of it is a disparate empire, the feeling the effects of the covid pandemic, of course the worst pandemic in the world hitting there, as well. food delivery and more, food giant zomato coming to the market in mumbai. we're looking at that. let's look at this, as well. high precision holding its meeting today, investors watching plans to expand while
the company says the plant in china was not impacted. what they've also been saying is that they're not seeing impact from the world's chip shortage here, as well. they're on track to get over 10% margins, as well. of course, the pandemic hitting the hospitality industry perhaps worst of all, along with airlines and other travel related issues here. we're going to be talking about all that with the head of minor international, bill hynek he. bill has a significant property, not just in thailand but globally here, as well. yvonne: good to get him on the pulse of southeast asia. we'll get more on the story when it comes to didi, possibility of a record fine. here's what our guests have been saying all morning. >> so far there is little clarity. it's difficult to ascertain in the short-term. but again, we think the
government is pro-innovation, generally, over the long-term, and should the framework be set, the company should also be able to adapt to the new framework. >> the key will be to see how didi and these companies will be treated. i'm skeptical they're going to come down hard on didi. i think they want to make an example, but a delisting from the new york exchange is a pretty extreme measure. david: ok, as it pertains to what is happening across these markets, philippines's latest lines coming through, every sector down 3%, re-imposing a ban, session lows on that market, csi 300 coming off its low, although substantially down. as you can see, 90 minutes into the session, down about 50 points on that specific market, so two markets to watch. rishaad: no trading in japan today. yvonne: and the olympic ceremony. rishaad: i wonder if that
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♪ >> from the heart of where innovation, money, and power collide, in silicon valley and beyond, this is "bloomberg technology," with emily chang. ♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco, and this is bloomberg technology. coming up in the next hour, in full swing. intel reporting a lackluster third quarter sales forecast.