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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 22, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT

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growth decelerate and inflation decelerate. >> to go to is a transition. >> people get overwhelmed with information they cannot process. >> it is not the optimum time to be overweight on risk. >> we are going to see discoloration and growth, that is for sure. but the u.s. consumer will stay resilient. announcer: this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is ecb day from new york city to our audience worldwide. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance" on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro. lisa will be back with us on monday. equity futures of 8 points on the s&p, advancing .2%. one hour and 45 minutes away from them ecb decision today. tom: a big yield reversal. the carnage in equities and this correction we have had. i just did a careful
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cancellation on surveillance on thursday on ecb day. we go out to a certain number of digits. how about a -0.6% market drawdown? it is a crisis in equities. jonathan: you will love this quote. "the ecb has set aside a new inflation target to miss an markets want to know how they go about missing it." that is the story going into this new conference later this morning. tom: i just did a survey of nominal gdp for francine lacqua. in finland, i was surprised. germany, not all that good. the bottom line is they are managing a traditionally lethargic growth, trying to give it some form of umph. francine: -- jonathan: did you watch the town hall with the president last night? i will sleep. i think that is when kailey leinz wakes up.
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kailey, the president making the point that higher wages are the future for the policy of this administration. kailey: he is trying to make the case for future spending. he keeps reiterating that look at what economists and what wall street is telling you. they are saying it is transitory and therefore it must be that the pricing pressures are going to pass us by. it is not going to stick around forever and that makes it easier for the case to pump trillions of dollars into this economy, if chuck schumer can get his act together in the senate. jonathan: we will catch up with our washington correspondent and we will head down to the sea. you up to speed -- we will head down to d.c. the s&p advancing .2% after the big two day. tuesday morning, at the lowest on the 10 year, we were looking at 112.60.
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at the highs of yesterday, 130. right now, 128.83. in the back half of the section -- session, and light auction. we have a massive range with not much in between. tom: we don't look at the options. we leave that to abramowicz. kailey: i think we look at the options. jonathan: there we go. some pushback from kailey leinz. have you noticed it? kailey leinz my taylor riggs, romaine bostick. kailey: good morning to you. what a morning it will be. just under one hour and 45 minutes from now, we will get the ecb decision followed by the press conference from christine lagarde. what are we going to get from the forward guidance changes now that we do have that symmetric inflation target and what does it mean for ecb credibility? can they convince the market that they can reach that target? that press conference from christine lagarde is starting at 8:30 eastern.
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also we will be getting jobless claims data. 350,000 is the print we will looking -- we are looking for. the fed is watching inflation, but also watching the labor market extreme closely. what i'm going to be watching closely after the bell, earnings. we will get a slew of them. intel will be interesting. we had texas instruments last night blowing it out of the water in the second quarter in terms of 41% revenue growth but a little cautious on the forecast. does that indicate that shift demand may be peaking and what does that mean for chipmakers investing so much in their production capacity? we are going to get snapchat and twitter earnings, looking for more engagement and advertising revenue for those guys. jonathan: thank you. here is a story for right here, right now. didi is down another 3%. the ride-hailing giant in china. more trouble. let me run you through the highlights. chinese regulators are considering serious, perhaps
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unprecedented penalties for this company after its controversial ipo last month. this according to people familiar with the matter. regulators seeing the ipo last month, despite pushback from the cyberspace administration and china, is potentially a china -- challenge to beijing's authority. this story is not going anywhere. tom: it is not that it is a story. my headline is many stories. it is not just didi. this is a sum of president xi over what capitalism should look like. jonathan: i agree with you. also the capital market side. what were they told before they came public and what did they disclose and what did they holdback to potential investors? you will not hear the end of this for a while. tom: some people say it started with the people who bought the
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waldo for story of. -- the waldorf-astoria. i don't know. jonathan: great reporting from the team. that stock is down by a little more than 3%. we need to push forward to the ecb. that decision coming in one hour and 30 minutes. eric robertsen, global head of standard chartered research, joins us now. the ecb is said -- has set a target of inflation to miss. eric: i think that is a very good point. historically, the has had a difficult time meeting a price target that was at or below 2%. to move the desired inflation target a little bit higher, what it tells us is that they are prepared to look through the temporary inflation spike we are seeing now and will probably continue with asset purchases
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and various forms of quantitative easing to build back credibility. tom: the u.s. has a boom economy. europe does not. is it simply the structure that the ecb has to deal with that they cannot generate a boom economy to help out? eric: i think that is part of the story, tom. we have been wondering about this this inflationary liquidity trap -- disinflationary liquidity trap that europe has been struggling with. we don't think negative interest rates made things any better. it probably made things more difficult for the banking system. you have a world where policy rates are at zero and the financial institutions do not have a lot of incentive for just riveting that excess liquidity to the broader economy. -- for distributing that excess the liquidity to the broader economy. people talk about the structure, but for me, one of those differences is the nature of the financial system in the banking
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system. kailey: there is a difference in fiscal policy as well in europe. it has not been as robust as in the u.s. when it comes to stimulus. when we are talking about monetary stimulus and we talk about the definitions of persistent and forceful, does that mean more stimulus or just stimulus for longer? eric: i think it means stimulus for longer. let's go back to the decision to pursue the pandemic emergency purchase program, which is a mouthful. by our estimation, at the current pace of bond purchases, it is going to take the ecb until probably march of next year to fully utilize. the question is if they are still struggling to achieve their inflation target, what do they do after that? the program gave them an anonymous amount professor billy -- enormous amount of flexibility. going back to traditional qe would probably have less flexibility, but it allows them
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to keep those purchases of for a longer period of time. that is what we are faced with. jonathan: the keyword is emergency and how we define emergency and what that looks like. have you got any idea and do you expect to get any answers in this news conference later? eric: in the short-term, no. i don't think we will get a lot of new information. i think they will have to offer more forward guidance and more verbal commentary about how they plan on achieving some of those new symmetric inflation targets. but i think this is really the challenge. it is the same thing when the fed first announced average inflation targeting. everybody said it is one thing to talk about wanting higher inflation, but how are you going to achieve that? i think that is infinitely more challenging for the ecb than the federal reserve. jonathan: good to catch up. eric robertsen, standard
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chartered bank global head of research. let's use the ecb's targets and forecast. the new target is a 2% inflation target. look at the forecast. 1.5% for 2022 and 1.4% for 2023. when i read that line, it is spot on and it has been spot on for a long time. regardless of what the target is, they have not been able to get there on a sustainable basis. tom: the behavior of what money does. mr. robertsen alluded to that. i have been watching this wall of money called overnight reserve. i do not pretend to be an expert at it. from the peak, $1 billion, down we go to 700 billion. we are starting to creep up again. this is like in europe. what do you do with the money?
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what is the incentive of all of that government to go into the private system? it is not there. jonathan: you are taking up the federal reserve for next week as well. july 28. what are you looking for? tom: it used to be easy. you would see what sandwich greenspan had for lunch. we have gone way beyond that. i am looking for chairman powell to have a delicate press conference and also speak to the white house during his press conference. jonathan: we will head down to d.c. and get the update on the white house in a moment. that is 10 minutes away on this program. the price action, up a little more than .1% on the s&p. yields, for once, some stability. advancing have a basis point. i am jonathan ferro. it is a beautiful morning in new york city. good morning. this is bloomberg.
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>> president biden is dismissing concerns that the u.s. would experience persistent inflation. he told them there would be near term inflation because the economy is still improving. he says that restaurants and others in the hospitality industry might take longer to recover because of hiring difficulties. senate republicans have blocked debate on the unfinished infrastructure plan. they rejected cap schumer's proposal to move ahead while negotiators struggled to complete details on the $579 billion package. moderate republicans say they need more time to fill in the details. they say by next week there should be enough votes to bring out the proposal. china is considering serious penalties for didi after the controversial ipo last month. regulators see the decision to go public as a challenge to
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beijing authority. the country's private space administration has pushed back against the ipo. among the penalties, a suspension of operations or the introduction of a state owned investor. the actual covid deaths toll in india could be as high as a staggering 5 million. even the most conservative estimate, 1.3 million, would be more than double that of the u.s., which has the highest reported death tolls on the outbreak. the numbers range from three to 10 times india's official count. they were derived from government data. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg.
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♪ >> the vast majority of the experts including wall street
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are suggesting that it is highly unlikely that it is going to be long-term inflation that will get out of hand. there will be near-term inflation because everything is trying to be picked back up. jonathan: the president of the united states speaking at a cnn town hall. good morning. i am jonathan ferro. here is the price action this thursday morning. some three hours and 12 minutes away, your s&p 500 looks like this. advancing 0.16% on the s&p 500. following a two day on the s&p supported by high yields over the last couple of days. still stuck at 130 from the lows of tuesday morning. going into the ecb decision, one hour away. euro-dollar, 117.92. tom: so euro-dollar is not giving me much. the vix, not a record high, but
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it is getting there slightly with dow futures up 70 right now. -- up 73 right now. in washington in the unseemly chaos, the president talked about chaos and a filibuster, but i lost count on the number of chaoses congress is dealing with. what is the message down there? annmarie: the first is the infrastructure package with senator chuck schumer, the vote to get it to debate. that ended up backfiring. it does look like they are wrapping that up in terms of bipartisan support and will probably get another vote on monday. senator schumer had a vote no so he can bring it to the floor on monday. the second is the debt ceiling. we heard from the commercial budget office that the debt ceiling goes to july 31.
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that was decided last year. the treasury going to the cbl has until october, november, in order to keep u.s. government paying its bills. the third thing, which is more front and center, is the delta variant and the spikes we are seeing around the world and the president talked about that last night at the cnn town hall. tom: we talked to senator hegarty yesterday at tennessee. he is vaccinated. his mother is vaccinated. what can they actually do? what can southern senators and a lot of urban representatives as well, what can they do to get the variant and the unvaccinated going? annmarie: it depends who you ask, what direction would be the right approach. at this point, some people say you need to pay people to get vaccinated. other incentives. another thing that states could do, and we are seeing it incrementally in certain businesses and universities are requiring that you have to get a vaccine or you cannot enter. there was a very famous legal
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case in 1905, jacobson versus massachusetts. this had to do with smallpox and whether or not it was legal to get a smallpox vaccine. the supreme court said states have jurisdiction. it could become mandated. the administration but want to give that up to the states. but that would be the extreme case and it will take a lot of political capital to do. but there are other avenues. jonathan: let's talk about masking. "politico" this morning. "masking push as covid vaccines -- covid infections spikes." annmarie: jerome adams saying that the cdc needs to do this. he is the former surgeon general. there is no way to track whether an individual on the street or in a restaurant is vaccinated or not and there is no mask mandate. if you are not vaccinated, people are still taking it up,
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no one knows if i'm not vaccinated or not. there is concern in washington. we heard from press secretary jen psaki talking about there has been breakthrough cases at the white house and "the washington post" saying that the white house is banging back a mask mandate. this will be politically challenging, and there will be discussions not only in the white house, but in congress. this comes from the cdc, but the administration is having these high-level discussions. jonathan: the cdc needs to focus on the science exclusively. that is what we expect from them. the administration needs to think about incentives as well. matthew de blasio of new york city is thinking about that. if you tell people they have been vaccinated and they have to wear masks again, where are the incentives just to get back to normal and go ahead and get one? annmarie: the incentives have to live with those who are not vaccinated. those that are vaccinated know what the incentives are. most of us can get on a plane.
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we can go inside restaurants or shops without having to wear masks. if -- it is the tracking that is going to be difficult. they tried a lot of incentives in this country. lotteries, free tickets. i got a vaccine and was given $25 to use in the drugstore because i was later on in the year. an older gentleman walked in and said, i got my vaccine two months ago and i did not get anything for this. tom was in new york. the incentives work to a point. some people are refusing and the administration is trying everything. they are sending buses to rural areas. you see a lot of representatives out there trying to implore individuals to get vaccinated, but it might come to a point where they need to start discussing up there was going to be a vaccine certificate or a passport. universities and shops are not going to let people in unless they have proof of vaccination. kailey: it was a week ago today
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that president biden was meeting with angela merkel talking about lifting the ban on europeans coming to the u.s.. it has been seven days, still nothing. is the biden administration in a position to do that considering what is happening domestically? annmarie: it is a very good question and we just do not know. we have not heard from the administration on the travel ban. clearly this delta variant, and they are discussing bringing back mask mandates, is going to make it very difficult. one interesting research i read this morning is that there is research that two pfizer jabs and two astrazeneca shots work against the delta variant. we know a lot of europeans are taking up the astrazeneca shot. potentially that could help, but we do not know. the president really punted that decision down the line and has yet to come up with a decision on that. jonathan: what is several days? a week? two weeks? i think we are past several.
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annmarie: it was not brought up last night. travel was not brought up. jonathan: annmarie in washington, d.c., thank you, our washington correspondent. let's turn back to the pricing issue. there was a line from chipotle that jumped out at a lot of people. "no resistance whatsoever to higher prices in the restaurant." it is not just about passing on higher prices. it is about consumer price tolerance and that tolerance seems to be robust at the moment in america. tom: it is. there is analysis on who is being affected the most. this is all new, john. we forget how to and original this boom economy is. anybody talking with certitude is -- and i think powell has captured that. there are a lot of mysteries out there and one is what is a $7 margarita at chipotle going to do to me? jonathan: can you get a
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margarita at chipotle, tom? have you ever been to chipotle? we can do that after the show, if you like. from new york city this morning, i am jonathan ferro. i think aaa is on 62nd -- i think chipotle is on 62nd street.
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jonathan: live from new york city on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance" and here is price action. on the s&p 500, we advance once again. right now advancing seven or 8 points. up almost .2% on the s&p. the russell advancing too after a tidy rebound after a really messy couple of months for the small caps in america. we advance another .2%. the relationship between the equity market and the bond market, yields have been on quite a trip over the last couple of days. the lows of the session on tuesday. 112.60. the highest on wednesday, just north of 130. to tom's point of bit earlier, on what? the exception may be some long dated debt coming to market,
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which was a little bit messy. that is your bond market at 129.16. stability for once. 193 .80 on a 30 year yield. your attention will turn away from this bond market to the fx market very briefly in one hour and 15 minutes at the ecb. switch up the board to euro-dollar. euro-dollar, 117.87. we were one figure north of this point the day after francine lacqua's interview with christine lagarde. i would not have been interested in this meeting if it were not christine lagarde saying that we should pay attention because this one was somehow important. let's see how important that is when we get that information. tom: don't you agree with me that the german 10 year and k-swiss 20 year are acting differently than the u.s. 10 year? they have a life of their own. jonathan: i will bring up the italian 10 year in the next hour. just wait for that.
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that is the tees for 6 minutes time. it is the development with what has happened for the 10 year yield and why that might be the ultimate target for the ecb and not that 2% number that has been thrown around. kailey: -- tom: we have a busy session. kailey, this is important off of united airlines. southwest hopeful to be profitable in q3 and q4. there is a lot of hopeful out there. kailey: they are deciding less confident than united that said they would be profitable in the second half of this year. united talking about a full recovery in domestic travel. i wonder if southwest is seeing that because they are just hopeful. they are not sure that profits will be hopeful. tom: manus is always hopeful to get to a three hour lunch in frankfort. we welcome him today as he looks at the ecb. what will christine lagarde try to not say today? manus: she will try and not say
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deflate the dove. it is probably about freedom. that is what she has messaged to the market. this bank is in a different addition to the fed, the bank of canada, the bank of england and to the tapering that is going on. she does not want to say that they are anywhere near that consideration. they have more slack, higher unemployment, they have an inflation differential which is wider to where you and jonathan are sitting. nothing is so permanent, john and tom, as a permanent government program, a bond buying program. that was part of the note from a couple of weeks ago talking about stimulus. in essence that is it. what are the flexibility they have? they want to communicate that. the flexibility in the emergency buying pandemic program that they have.
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they want that to hopefully outlive beyond march of next year in size and scale enough to keep the euro and keep those yields above 4%. jonathan: that is the big question. the emergency. how do we transition away. i wonder whether that new interpretation of their inflation mandate from close to 2% to just 2% enables the doves to get their own way. is that enough? manus: language is not enough in this case. language is something we have lived with for a long time. put that to one side. this is about communicating what we are seeing from the emergency buy program in perpetuity. the $.85 trillion should mathematically be done by march of next year with a bond yields of 4%, they may not need to spend elevate. what would you transfer into the bond buying program on an
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ongoing basis, that is where they have the flexibility. that is where they have the ability to cap the euro. that is where they have the ability to deliver the dove's message. -- the dovish message. the chief economist was with me this morning. she estimates another quarter of a trillion in terms of bond buying. this, for me, is all about the flexibility and that should delay some of the fears of the hawks because hawks on this committee wanted to taper the bond buying in the minutes of the last ecb meeting. that is a risk. jonathan: we are writing a book. $10 for your insurers in frankfort after what we saw take place in zurich. manus: when you have very posh guests, it is a full mark marengo saddlery. jonathan: tell your cameraman to loosen up a little bit.
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tell him to step back. manus: there ago. very cool. -- there we go. there are your shoes. very nice. jonathan: that is why you are here with us, over in frankfort, germany, thank you. tom keene, the always fashionable manus cranny in frankfort. tom: also dealing with katrina deadly of -- katrina d udley of franklin mutual. i love how you talk about the desire of smooth transition. that is a political process. are we going to see a smooth transition? katrina: i think we are going to see a smooth transition.
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we were expecting this july baby to be a nonevent, but the strategy review came out earlier than expected and the signaling coming out of the ecb has been all about doing things symmetrically, doing things consistently, and they are rooting for the market and the focus is on supporting the market and supporting the economy of europe. i think we are in for a very smooth transition here. we are also balancing the doves and the hawks of the ecb and we need to be thinking about what could happen when they released their statement. jonathan: the tally on the 10 year is six to seven basis points. it seems that that is the ultimate target, not the 2%, but to make sure the financial conditions are easy throughout the cycle. it makes me wonder how stuck they will be with these emergency policies beyond covid throughout the whole of this cycle. what are your thoughts on that? katrina: i think you are highlighting something that is so important.
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first of all on covering the european markets, we had something. we are looking at a very quiet and mild europe. italy is settling in. why is the market and ecb focus on italy? we had in may an increase in the interest rates on the bonds in your -- italy and they got scared. in order to do that and do that effectively, she needs the support of the ecb and to keep those rates low. i think you are right. they are very much focused on yields, particularly in italy and other countries in the periphery in particular. think about all those names that came up in the press over the last couple of years. kailey: sunshine lagarde -- when christine lagarde walks up to the podium, she will have to factor in the delta variant. do you see that as posing a risk
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to growth and how do you hedge against it? katrina: i think the delta variant is factored into the european forecast than it is in the united states we really have not seen the same impact. it is more of an issue in the u.k. obviously. europe has never been a fast-growing economy. i do not think it is going to really impede this. we are so much earlier in the recovery in europe and europe has more flexibility given that it is early in the recovery. it has higher un-implement rates and a lot more flexibility -- it has higher unemployment rates and has a lot more flexibility to put money into the economy. slightly incrementally going into the close next year, we could give 2021 a bit of a pass in terms of economic growth. jonathan: it is good to hear
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from you. thanks for being with us ahead of the ecb decision. katrina dudley of franklin mutual, a portfolio manager. look at the chart right here of the italian 10 year. 67 basis points. at the height of the year, what we saw was something north of 1%. what the fed said and what the ecb did. the federal reserve said this was a validation of a better outlook not just for the u.s. economy, but for the global economy. that is what they said about the high yields on treasuries. what the ecb did was start talking about wrapping up the pace of purchases in the near term. not the overall envelope, but the pace of purchases because they were not comfortable with where yields were going in europe. we talk so much about inflation mandates over at the ecb. they are forecasting that out still. what really matters is financial conditions in the periphery, for the whole of europe, and you
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will hear that again and again in the news conference in a couple of hours. tom: i would go even further to the desire for economic growth and to sustain it, which goes over to what the politicians care about, which is the labor economy. the arch issue here, and it shows from some of our guests including manus cranny, the idea of every central bank for themselves. some are getting restrictive and many of them cannot. jonathan: you are right to highlight the difference between what is happening in europe and the united states. we are having a different inflation conversation in america that is not taking place in europe in a material way. tom: there is no question about it. look at rents. look at the house shortage. jonathan: equity futures up .2%. from new york, this is bloomberg. laura: with the first word news,
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i am laura wright. it is almost as if the pandemic and the battle between the u.s. and china has never happened. the two countries are shipping goods to each other at the fastest pace in years. china is buying more from american farm goods and u.s. imports are described to be through the roof. but the u.s. trade deficit has not shrunk and there have been negotiations over other economic issues. meanwhile, china is pushing back against the world health organization's call for another probe in the coronavirus origins. the issue who wants to know is if the virus could have leaked from a chinese lab. beijing says there is no evidence for that theory and it defies common sense. the federal reserve chair jerome powell has full support for his renomination among top white house advisors. still the decision is expected later this year and has not been in front of president biden yet. powell was appointed as head of
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the central bank by president trump. his term expires in february. it is a sign that travel demand is bouncing back. american airlines is raising its goal for hiring pilots by 50% for the next year. that is according to a company memo. american's new plan calls for hiring more than 1300 pilots through the end of 2022. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am laura wright. this is bloomberg.
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♪ >> when we came out with the pricing for the vaccine, we identified a lead candidate, we
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discussed earlier about offering that not-for-profit. we did not want cost to be an issue for folks considering getting vaccinated or not. that will come to an end toward the end of this year. jonathan: the johnson & johnson cfo. from new york city, alongside tom keene, i am jonathan ferro with kailey leinz. lisa will be back this coming monday. equity market up nine or 10 points. we add a little bit to that rally, advancing .2%. the yield is pushing back to 130. back at that level right now. 130 flat. yields up around one basis point . in 57 minutes to an ecb decision. the euro-dollar is unchanged going into that. tom: absolutely. on the pandemic, some clear talk. we had a wonderful day yesterday diving deeper into this delta variant. jennifer nuzzo with us.
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i want to go back to april 26. the eu was looking at letting american tourists into europe. there was a better tone. hospitalizations now, led by the unvaccinated, they returned to where they were april 26 and it is not a good trend. what is the character of those hospitalizations? jennifer: it is not a good trend. it is a different patient population than has been hospitalized earlier in the pandemic. we have seen good vaccine uptake in the populations that are most likely to become severely ill, older adults. the people who are being hospitalized are younger. although age is the single biggest risk factor, it is not the only risk factor. people with underlying health conditions, and it is a list. it is a lot of people that fit in that category. even people who have no underlying health conditions are
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being hospitalized. it is tragic because vaccines can prevent that from happening. jonathan: we used to talk about a 70% vaccination rate in this country. can you compare and contrast the reproduction rate of this variant, the dominant variant right now, the delta variant, compared to what we first experienced 18 months ago and what that means for these kind of goals? whether 70% needs to be 75%? jennifer: it likely needs to be higher. the delta variant is spreading more quickly and earlier in people, possibly when they are not even feeling much. that complicates things. the fact that if you are sick and you are out and about, you can infect more people than you would, it makes it harder for health officials to outrun it, to use other measures to try to control it. that is why it is important that we do not have to do that. that we can prevent those infections from occurring in the first place and that is what vaccines are great at doing. jonathan: masks.
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that is the conversation in d.c. the washington post going with white house officials going with masks at covid -- as covid infections spike. does the master do for you? what does it do for others -- what does the mask do for you? what does it do for others? jennifer: there are some people that are still going to get ill, but it will keep them out of the hospital, it will be mild. we would've never heard of this virus in the first place. if you're in that category where you do not want to get that illness, wearing may be helpful. your need to do that is greater when you are in a place where there is more illness around you, where people are them radically -- people are more likely to be infected. that said, did not believe that the vaccines do not give you some protection. there has been a rising
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narrative about that. that is really disturbing to me. kailey: our schools one of those places where you need to be more careful? virginia urging everyone in an elementary school the mask up, given under 12 still are not vaccinated. as we approached the school year, is it safe for students to be returning? jennifer: we know it is possible to return children to school safely. it is essential that we do so after this past year and a half of educational destruction. that carries harm. i have kids that are too young to be vaccinated so i am in that boat. it has been recommended that kids, particularly those who cannot be vaccinated, wear masks. i think it will depend on what the level of infection in the community is. if you are in a community that has vaccinated its adults and there are very few cases, it seems hard to think that you need to wear masks and schools. that said, if you want to have zero risk
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that is an important tool to use. i think in schools where the case numbers in the surrounding committees are raging, then that is an important tool because we know that if there are cases among kids in school, it follows what happens in the surrounding community. overall, kids are at lower risk of serious illness from all forms of the virus come including the delta variant. there is confusing conversation about that lately and as a parent, i would want other parents to know that we face those risks with the data we have right now. kailey: school is now back in session yet. it is still summer vacation. it is summer season in europe. anyone in europe looking to take a vacation in the u.s. cannot do that. the biden administration has not yet made a decision. if you were advising the president as to whether that is safe given the concerns of the delta variant, what would you
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say? jennifer: the delta variant is already here and it is raging. not letting people here because you want to keep it out, that ship has already sailed. there are political pressures to keep the border closed and to prevent people from coming because it is probably easier. i am not convinced is doing much -- convinced it is doing much. jonathan: is it politics or is it science? it is good to catch up. jennifer nuzzo, johns hopkins senior scholar. top white house officials and biden administration officials are debating whether they should urge vaccinated americans to wear masks in more settings as the delta variant causes spikes in infections across the country. this according to six people familiar with the discussion. tom: in new york, it is a different calculus. paul sweeney speaking to somebody in kentucky. they made it clear kentucky has reverted back to where it was many months ago. i do not have that feeling in
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new york city. jonathan: the return to work effort as well, kailey. apple reportedly pushing that back one month, maybe to october. we wonder who else is going to follow. kailey: especially on wall street. post-labor day in september when all of the banks are expected to have more workers returning to the office, my neighborhood in the financial district will be a lot more crowded. what does that conversation begin to change as we see the delta variant concerns? it also brings up the question of requiring employees to be vaccinated or at least report vaccination status. they are doing it at hospitals in new york. is that going to extend to other industries as well? jonathan: a big push to get back to work on wall street. who is the latest? kailey: ubs joining the ranks. jonathan: first year out of school, one hundred thousand dollars is the benchmark. -- $100,000 is the benchmark. tom: what is important is what
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happens two years out of that. that is what you have to do. jonathan: the s&p advancing .2% going into the ecb, euro-dollar, 117.94. yields pushing higher. from new york, just is bloomberg -- this is bloomberg.
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♪ >> almost everything is told that we are in a regime shift. we are going to see growth decelerate. >> people get overwhelmed with information that they can't process, so they just go, you know what? risk off. >> it is probably not the optimum time to be overweight on risk. >> we are going to see acceleration in growth -- going to see deceleration in growth, that's for sure, but i think the consumer will stay quite resilient. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: the ecb 45 minutes away. good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. alongside tom keene, i jonathan ferro, together this morning with -- i'm jonathan ferro, together this morning with kailey leinz. lisa back on monday. what a run we've

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