tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg July 18, 2021 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
the week lower. with just days to go before the opening ceremony, athletes is positive inside the olympic village. haidi: let's get you started with markets. taking a look at the impact of the opec-plus deal that was finally reached, impact across the broader inflationary outlook. sophie: we have some debate about the reflation outlook. they are saying concerns about the delta variant, but we are seeing downside moves to oil, brent fell after losing 2.6% last week.
we are seeing a little change at the spread, trading about $.63 down from $.70 one week ago. there are concerns around the delta risk, futures pointing lower in asia, citi expecting a local repricing. when it comes to australia, citi expecting the kiwi to turn lower with the rba in play. now in japan, staying optimistic on tokyo stocks, seeing that japan's market is a proxy for a global upturn. kathleen: we have an opec-plus field. the group reached an agreement, overcoming a public feud between saudi arabia and
the uae. >> it was important to decide this today. it gives markets clarity, it gives the market direction, it gives the market a vision where we are heading. therefore, it will enable people to understand how progressively the supply would come, and how cautiously it would also come. kathleen: let's bring in a commodities strategist. mike, does this change things, and is this a temporary change? we see changes on both sides of this frequently. mike: i think it is coming with crude oil, very elevated prices historically, and this probably puts a confirmation that it is more of a bear market bounce. opec has great capacity in the database. it is a matter of time and
prices are doing that. we look at production and the rest of the world. u.s. shale, the highest price to cost of production ever, everyone is optimistic about demand. i see a high probability that this is the peak. and the key thing it needs is the stock market has to go higher. it's opening up a little bit lower. if the stock market peaks, it may follow copper and timber. haidi: what is the longer-term outlook? there are key structural shifts happening within the oil markets, that opec can't do much about. mike: i like to get on the terminal and pull of crude oil, 20 years, watch the trend. the trend is clearly down since 2008. it's up the near -- midpoint of
the range. what is going to change that trend? i think bond yields are telling us it is more of the same. opec is telling us, copper has told us that. the one catalyst is a potential correction in the stock market. i am not smart enough the figure of the end of the trend. as part of the range is likely to continue. are there reasons to ship the trajectory? i don't think so. kathleen: we hear so much from companies talking about higher input costs, which means higher output costs. how do you see the oil price dynamic, with opec's new deal, filter through the other commodity markets? mike: good example. the thing to remember if the elasticity of supply.
expect a massive collapse in corn. we just had the largest amount of fiscal monetary stimulus in the history of the world, and that sugar high should start wearing off. put yourself a year from now, all of those input cause come down because supply will come back, u.s. yellow come back, demand will go down. i fully expect we will go back to where we were before covid, 10 crude oil was a bear market. these levels are very vulnerable that wti is going to go to $50 and very likely that he goes to $100. if it goes to $100 it shuts down the economy. haidi: always great to have you with us. let's put more about this, i want to bring in the head of asia equity strategy. great to have you with us. we see another fall when it comes to the aussie 10 year bond, the lowest since february,
part of what we see on a global stage. what does this tell you about the markets expectations of demand? guest: what we are seeing now in the market, the looting of the equity market over the last week, if you have two kinds of concerns. one is on growth and the other inflation. what we have seen in terms of looking at the rest -- the last week, the big growth is starting to become more concerning, and this is actually an area that has pushed us to reduce allocation of risk assets into the global allocation. you have inflation, but you also have growth. the earnings season is going to be very important elements and
possibly a catalyst to see we could have another -- haidi: when it comes to inflation, there is increasing concern that the fed and central banks might be taking a rose tinted view. i want you to listen to the pepsico cfo. >> i am not going to assume it is transitory. i'm going to assume it will be around for a little while, and we will build our plans around that. if we get surprised with inflation lowering quickly, that is great, we will adjust. but right now i am assuming it will be with us through the better part of next year. haidi: this is just the latest in the number of corporate voices increasingly saying they are not doing inflation -- viewing inflation as being transitory. tabs that weigh on the earnings outlook? guest: you have the second
quarter, of course he will have the earnings extremely strong, but what is important is the messages for 2022. here, for instance when i am observing what is happening on asia equity, we start to see some earnings momentum rolling over. even in some star markets like taiwan, korea. this is where we have to be a little bit cautious when it comes to equity on the longer-term, 6012 month view. kathleen: i'm curious. china's gdp is moving along fine, slowing a bit. we have a mixed view of that economy. you are ready to adds chinese
stocks to your portfolio at a time when people who say the valuations are high, it is one thing to own chinese stocks but add to them. why do you like it? guest: yes, we have added china equity in our global at a location -- allocation. looking at the driver of china equity, you have the economic condition. while we expect some slowdown in the second half, we are seeing an economy which is starting to grow stable, steadily, no collapse. you have an important element which is the deleveraging policy and tightening. we have some indication that we are seeing some signs of easing, then you have something which matters probably the most
according to me, which is the regulation tightening on the china internet, or you have a lot of skepticism. you start to see the valuation more affordable. you have a number of elements where you see some big growth happening in the u.s.. kathleen: a lot of focus on japan, the olympics. you think you see a positive surprise in the second half? is japan going to get the virus under control? ? guest: you had one of the reasons was the slow vaccination rate, and this is something that is going to be behind us.
in the second half you will see the election, which has been an element for the second half, i do have some seasonal factors from the japanese equities market, especially since the quantitative easing, the fourth quarter is generally better. we could see a better second half, especially in the last quarter. kathleen: thank you very much. now to juliette saly with the first alert headlines. >> china has held military exercises in the waters of taiwan after a second u.s. military aircraft landed in taiwan, that is according to the global times. the paper said the drill is to be seen as a warning and determine. it reported complex military
exercises would likely be staged in the future. angela merkel has toward flood ravaged parts of germany, calling the situation frightening. the death toll has surpassed 180, as rescue 80's continue -- rescue efforts continue. the visit came a day after a politician was films laughing. mexico says it wants to restart ties with north korea, the country's foreign minister made the statement on the sidelines of a meeting. mexico cut ties with north korea under the previous administration in line with international law. american as when the british open on his debut. the 24-year-old becomes the only player to cap into different majors on the first attempt. he close with a bogey three two under 56. the californian is the first
player since bobby jones in 1926 22 wagers. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am juliette saly. this is bloomberg. haidi: coming up next. freedom day in the u.k.. boris johnson's health secretary is infected. days away from the opening ceremony in tokyo, athletes have tested positive inside the olympic village. our guest calls it a present challenge for japan. he joins us later this hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
of us taking part in the pilot scheme which allows people to -- important everyone sits to the same rules. that is why i'm going to be self-isolating until the 26th of july. haidi: that was boris johnson changing course after facing public backlash when he initially said he and the chancellor would continue working even after being exposed to covid. this comes as new delhi cases reach a six-month high just as the government lifted restrictions. it looks like another setback for johnson. in addition to the cases we are seeing just ahead of freedom day, there was controversy that he and his cabinet members are playing by their own rules when it comes to self-isolation. reporter: it's not a great look,
it has to be said. tomorrow or monday is what is dubbed freedom day. unfortunately for johnson, it is not looking particularly free for him when he has to give his rally in isolation. it is another dent to his credibility. he got criticized by people from his own party, and also from the great british public for trying to dodge the isolation rules. haidi: the number of new cases,
people are not dying or hospitalized the way they were, but long covid is still an issue. reporter: indeed. something like one million people across the u.k. have some form of long covid, that is a big drag for the economy. you have a million people taken out of the workforce. there are all sorts of issues that are bubbling under for the u.k., if people have been told to isolate, they can't go to work.
we have seen buses and cafes struggling to stay open because people can't turn up to work. there are all sorts of issues developing for the u.k.. kathleen: president biden slammed misinformation consults media about vaccines. >> the only pandemic we have is among the unvaccinated. they are killing people. kathleen: amy klobuchar wants to hold company is liable for misinformation, including facebook. reporter: she came out all guns blazing, at the risk of upsetting any sensibilities among our viewers, she said "there is no reason they should not be able to monitor this better and take this crop up their platforms".
it comes a day after facebook tried to push back against biden saying on friday -- the vice president on integrity came out with a block on saturday saying we are not the bad guys. the reason why bidens target then happen without our fault. it was a long speech in writing. kathleen: thanks so much. the father and son team that helped and escape out of japan get their sentences. we have a report. this is bloomberg. ♪
kathleen: a father and son team are set to be sentenced later monday. prosecutors recommended a sentence for more than two years . let's get more now in tokyo. what is going to happen today and what to expect to happen? reporter: it taste for straightforward process -- it is a straightforward process. there was no trial. they were extradited to japan back in march, and subsequently pled guilty, admitted to the
entire caper. but they are looking for is a sentence and hopefully one that is reduced enough, both because they have admitted to the allegations, showed remorse, and also served sometime in the u.s. jail before coming to japan, they're either hoping for a reduced sentence or even a suspended sentenced. haidi: why is there so much scrutiny? reporter: that's a really interesting question. it is because he escaped. they have become a proxy for carlos ghosn who is now in beirut, and because lebanon does not extradite its citizens, people probably never be in a japanese court. therefore, the allegations of
financial misconduct, they are never going to be explored in full at this within the japanese judicial system. therefore you have the people who helped him escape trial, but you also have a nissan director who was also arrested at the same time. his trial is going now. both sets of judicial proceedings are serving as a proxy to prosecute gsohn. haidi: that's really interesting. are there any implications for nissan? reporter: at this point we are so far away from the business performance. it is a distraction of sorts, went even nissan itself is trying to move away from the g
hosn arrest and incident. the company has seen two straight years of operating losses. they're trying to turn that around. even though that is easier said than done, because if the global chip shortage for automobiles, they really can't sell the booming demand for cars. haidi: tsmc's founder has warned domestic supply chains could push up costs. speaking as taiwan's envoy to the forum, he raised doubts about the ability of government to develop semiconductor industries. he said free trade has boosted chip technology and remains the best system. a bank makes -- posts more than expected profit.
india's largest private sector lender saw a net income of about $1 billion, it's the first lender to report results as the nation emerges from the coronavirus wave. much more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloo in business, it's never just another day. it's the big sale, or the big presentation. the day where everything goes right. or the one where nothing does. with comcast business you get the network that can deliver gig speeds to the most businesses and advanced cybersecurity to protect every device on it— all backed by a dedicated team, 24/7. every day in business is a big day. we'll keep you ready for what's next. comcast business powering possibilities.
reporter: these are the first word headlines. boris johnson has agreed to self-isolate until july 26 after being exposed to cover 19. both he and the chancellor said they would not quarantine after coming into contact with the u.k.'s health secretary. it came in at a backlash one day before the u.k. is due to lift remaining viruses restrictions.
singapore has marked the highest number of new coronavirus cases in 11 months. infections are emerging from karaoke lounges and local food centers. health officials say 88 local infections were reported, and despite restriction measures being reinforced. in thailand, riot police fired water cannons at pro-democracy activists. thousands march to protest the government handling of the coronavirus outbreak fueled by the delta variant. the protest came despite restrictions of public gatherings on more than five people. cases have exceeded 400,000 and daily fatalities are breaking records. an investigation by the washington post found an israeli company was used in hacks on 37 smartphones belonging to journalists, activists and
executives worldwide. both the wife and fiance of the saudi journalist was targeted as well as cnn, the associated press and the new york times. it denies the technology was used. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am juliette saly. this is bloomberg. kathleen: let's get back to sophie and hong kong to take a look at the markets. sophie: we are seeing oil prices move lower, falling as much as 1.4% in the prospect of more supply. bloomberg intelligence is expecting a peak in place for crude, and bond yields indicate a switch and sentiment.
futures taking higher after u.s. bonds cap a gain which said jp morgan -- may jp morgan say treasuries are overbought. the bond yields falling, february over the bench rate in australia. prospects of tighter -- [indiscernible] bloomberg.com it 1%. haidi: that agreement between major producers potentially averting a squeeze end of -- inflationary shock and providing clarity. >> market guidance is virtual, and if we went to, as we always aspired to, make sure that opec-plus becomes nothing different than a central bank, market guidance, is crucial. haidi: the president and chief
economist at prestige economic -- joins us. as this come at a time where we are already seeing the peak of the post-pandemic coverage -- recovery? guest: i don't think so. part of the reasons equity markets took a hit is because the concerns over the delta variant. these things are holding back travel, holding back oil consumption, but as we see more countries become vaccinated and rates continue to rise, we are likely to see oil demand come back quite quickly and that means the peak of oil demand is not behind us, it is still yet to come. haidi: what does it mean for u.s. shale? guest: i think this is a signal that even opec is allowing a
reduction, they are allowing production to rise, very gradually, 400,000 barrels a day. they're going to let that rise, because they also see the global economy recovering, travel increasing, demand rising. for shale producers, this means it is not all coming to the market at once, it is very gradually. demand is going to be much stronger next year that it is this year, and that means you're going to see without additional supply, you're going to see a lot more higher prices, potentially would incentivize more drilling. kathleen: when you look at the next six months, we were about $75 a couple of weeks ago, back down to $71 on west texas intermediate. wei du cs going? guest: our price going into the
quarter before the meeting that fell apart, our expectation for wti with $73.50. if we look forward to next year, we are likely to be in the $80 range, not in the $70 to $75 range. for prints, we expect prices to be higher than that. kathleen: what do you think opec-plus wants to keep the price? when it went up to 100 and beyond that became a problem. it became a problem for the oil market. guest: this is a great question. the prince just reference the fact that talking about opec-plus as this central bank of oil, and the truth is, they have a dual mandate. just like the feds. on the one hand they want to keep prices at a profitable
level, but they don't want them to be so high that everyone flocked to electric vehicles and demand disappears. i think $70, $80, those ranges are ok. when we get to the $100 range, that is a big concern, when you're in the $50 range, that is a concern as well. kathleen: what response to expect from the biden administration? guest: this is a pretty measured move. you are letting supply because demand is rising. if you look at the blueprints, rising on trend. i don't know if we are going to get a political response, but they are doing what we are going to see from every central bank going forward, which is very measured moves against the backdrop of quite a bit of covid
uncertainty. kathleen: i love that. opec-plus the central bank. thanks so much. precedes economics president and chief economist. up next. more athletes in olympic village test positive, with the opening ceremony days away. we have a live report next. we are hearing from a japan strategist about the impact of the on japanese assets. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ >> we are looking to make good progress. >> i believe it is quite significant to hold the olympic and paralympic games. it will become the light of hope. >> all of the measures we are undertaking are satisfactory and will ensure a safe and secure games. >> i outlined thereof infection controls to ensure a safe and secure environment, and received very strong support from all leaders. we need to step up virus measures. i will be issuing a state of
emergency in tokyo. >> there were many factors such as strain on medical services as well as winning the public's understanding for holding the games. that is how we arrived at the difficult decision. >> we are preparing whatever the circumstances, and the extent of the games. haidi: officials are speaking ahead of the tokyo olympics. athletes have tested positive ahead of the games, including two players on south africa's soccer squad, meanwhile a u.s. tennis player is among them although she has not yet traveled to tokyo and she won't make it. a deputy chief joins us now. these latest headlines showing us that this is continuing to be an olympics like no other. >> absolutely.
it is worth looking at what these positive cases mean for the games. the first few positive cases coming through from the athletes village itself, we had some cases from olympic support staff, and it does show the testing regime is working. they are catching cases. what we know about the incubation period, you would expect some cases. what does this mean for the athletes? they are being isolated within the village, and you will see cases like this, where they test positive in their own countries and cannot make it to the game that all. in most events, athletes are given the equivalent of a did not start and it will be interesting to see how big of an impact that has on the results themselves. kathleen: how are the people of tokyo and japan feeling about the games? it seems like all of the polls are negative. reporter: it is a cautious mood,
now a resigned one, because there is no turning back. we are counting down to the opening ceremony. there is concern about the injuries in virus cases that may have happened with or without the olympics. here in tokyo, we are watching it on tv, like the rest of the world. a good proxy to see how the world feels about the virus cases. look at the approval ratings, they have been tanking and pulls over the weekend showed a continued decline, that is even after he put tokyo under the state of emergency. previous states of emergency gave him a bit of a lift. he has a general election coming up in just a couple of months. really cannot afford to mess this up, and it looks like the public are not super keen on his government. kathleen: come september and
beyond, could we see a change of government? reporter: change of government itself, probably unlikely. we did get a sneak peek that the election might shape up like the tokyo assembly elections. this party has been in power for most of the postwar period. it is unlikely we will see a flip, based on the virus and olympics alone. at the same time, he also has to stand for reelection as party leader. he took over last year in september from his longtime predecessor, a charismatic leader who was able to hang on for nearly eight years. if he is dumped by the party in september, we could possibly see a return of a revolving door of prime ministers. we have to wait and see, the popularity could pick up if it does not turn into a super-spreader event.
kathleen: thank you so much, the tokyo deputy bureau chief. our next guest calls the elephants a poisoned chalice. joining us is a japan strategist. you also note, despite this poisoned chalice, japan has done reasonably well. i want to focus on the fact that within the olympic village, people are testing positive. is that a problem, or once they get past the olympics, is japan in a reasonably good place? guest: thanks for having me. they have done extremely well. if you look at debts and japan compared to the u.s., the u.s. over the last week is 7.8 times japan. europe is 2.5 times japan.
you can see euphoria in global markets in european and north american markets for vaccine rollout, but they are trying to get -- catch up with japan. i think tokyo is definitely one of the safest places globally to be at this time. it was going to be an absolutely stunning olympics, no olympics had ever spent more money. frustratingly, we have the covid crisis causing problems. i think it will be handled, yes, if you get enough people together you will get one or two who have the disease. will it bring the olympics down? no. will it bring the market down? no. i believe it was a poisoned chalice. japan is locking down more than it needs to to make for the elevates is a success. the most exciting thing for me is when the olympics are over at
the economy can start to roar. kathleen: it has been a mixed bag on the economy. you see the economy rory. are investors not aware of this? are there bargains to be had? guest: since the dawn of abe in late 2012, japan was not the best performing market, but it was the best of the rest after the u.s.. it did very well. for 2015 onward, people have been selling. at the moment they have euphoria about europe and the u.s.. i think it is an oversold, under old -- under owned market. at the moment, the global side is doing well. japan is a play on global trade. but services and the domestic side is being badly held back. that is what we can see snapback
from the moment the other big fish the olympics ends. . haidi: longer-term demographics remain the problem, that is why the boj is going nowhere. how do you balance the portfolio, given we see the trajectory? guest: i don't think anyone is running around with a global population of 8 billion people, saying i wish we had more people. the chinese are in a one child policy. the indians did not think it either. i think more important is education and drive of japanese people, rather than how many of them there are. i do not think that is what is holding back the economy. the currency over the last couple of decades has been a problem. over the longer-term, japan is a decent place to invest, for the simple reason, that this is a
good play on global trade. it is the best part of two thirds of corporate profits generated outside japan. if you like global growth, you should love japan. haidi: one of your top strategies continues to be japanese trading houses. that clearly suggests you expect the commodities inflation story to continue. guest: i think so. i don't think inflation is going to her japan. i have been here for 34 years, i have never really seen inflation in this country. i think the commodities part of it will do very nicely. one of the parts of the companies are the high dividend yields. ralph hall to the very good at the global economy comes back. ultimately tourism starts to
pick up, those thing to do very nicely. haidi: what does humbled growth mean as an investment strategy? guest: for a long time, we have had stocks that had good return on equity, good companies humbled by covid. i think people are saying, growth and quality has moved to such a premium they are hard to buy. if you have a look around, there are a few folks who would normally be done -- doing well but have been humbled by the covid crisis. could stocks are in hard times. kathleen: how much is your optimistic outlook depend on a continued global recovery, particularly in the u.s., and where else? guest: there are two parts to
the market. the domestic and server-side, the global and manufacturing side. we have already got the global manufacturing side doing very nicely. what we need now is the return to the domestic and service sides. that i think is where the upside potential is. on the up 7% year-to-date when the s&p is up 50%. that is where the difference is going to come from. kathleen: in services, that part of a the economy and japan, when you look at possible stock picks or broadly a strategy, what is it on that side of the economy? guest: i think consumption could start to come back. quality consumption related to stocks. it's interesting as the economy starts to pick up.
japan had the hike and on its tail had the covid pandemic. they have been hit with a double punch. that is where the potential to snapback is more than anywhere else. kathleen: thank you so much. be sure to tune into bloomberg radio to hear more from the days big newsmakers and get in-depth analysis broadcasting live from hong kong. listen via the app, radio plus or bloombergradio.com. but the more ahead. stay with us. ♪
kathleen: captain down to the start of trade in tokyo. here are some stories we are watching, starting with the prime minister's cabinet ratings fall to a record low. this as south african athletes test positive for covid. meanwhile, the americans who helped the former nissan boss escape from japan are said to be sentenced. they are pleading guilty in saying they are very guilty. a trend of boosting pay we are
seeing across wall street at the pandemic leaves its marks. in korea, the president may decide to whether to attend the tokyo olympics opening ceremony after japanese officials downplayed the chances. meanwhile, mexico is floating restoring its diplomatic ties with north korea. that is according to the nation's foreign minister. health updates with virus restrictions. let's get for another look at asian equities. sophie: keeping an eye on shares with authority saying a recent animal tests showed an effective sleep -- efficacy on the covid variant. keeping an eye on japanese drugmakers developing vaccines, according to a media japan plans
to have clinical trials. watching iron ore minors, exports from australia jumping to the second-highest monthly volume ever in june. [indiscernible] haidi: coming up on daybreak asia. an executive editor joins us to talk about the outcomes of a retreat and ways nations can boost coordination when it comes to tackling the coronavirus. we are speaking next to someone who thinks korea is still offering value and prospects for equity. market opens our next. we are looking at a muted start to trade after the s&p 500 falling for the first time in four weeks as inflationary concerns go global. we are watching commodities as well as energy as we have a
opec strikes a deal to pump additional supplies into the recovery, plus the number of fully vaccinated hong kong residents topped 2 million. it may help the hub reach its target. let's take a look at how we are setting up on a muted part to the -- start to the trading week. sophie: stocks lower, bonds higher, risk off tone, delta variant concerns. the nikkei losing more than 1%. ubs is favoring japanese equities on bets that consumer spending will see rebound, along with attractive valuations. aberdeen seeing green trees for earnings that could help turn the performance for japanese equities. turning to south korea, the famous korean discount is history given increasingly long-term structural support for retail investors. we are seeing the kospi edge
lower after capping a two-week decline, for korean stocks. turning onto sydney, switching on the board, tighter lockdown measures are imposed. losing one third of 1% while the aussie dollar is trading at a seven month low. we are seeing the aussie 10 year trading at the 120 level, could see a push towards 1% on aussie benchmark yields. we are seeing cash treasury yields under pressure, below 127 early this morning, this after we saw j.p. morgan morning that treasuries are looking overboard. bloomberg intelligence arguing that the revealed indicate a shift to a deflationary trend may be taking hold, and that is putting a lid on oil prices. we are seeing crude had lower, france below 73. we're going to check in later to see if they are tweaking their
oil forecast. kathleen: thank you so much. cover 19, oil, u.s.-china tensions. . all being watched for investors heading into a new trading week. for more, let's bring in a senior portfolio manager for asia-pacific quarters. this equities -- equities. what do you see at the biggest driver? guest: in the short-term, it is what is happening with covid. that is where people's attention is being focused. we are seeing the roll of vaccines and asia going slow. in the medium-term, i think the driver is the regulatory crackdown on tech companies, and earnings. kathleen: what about the regulatory crackdown? are you talking about china? so much has been done, it feels
like the markets are getting used to china topically reining in different parts of the economy. guest: i think that is right. this is a global phenomenon. we are seeing it happening around the world, and china it is happening faster. from we are seeing so far, antitrust and fines through the market. the bigger question is what is going to happen in terms of the access to the data. if the data becomes a public good, that changes earnings. haidi: we have already seen the theme start to play out, bonds up and stocks climbed down as we see the delta variant wreaking havoc. i want to take us to the question of the day. which asset classes look to suffer the most if we continue to see the delta variant, but
also sustained inflation. guest: it slightly different. clearly, the countries that have been hit, where you don't have offsets from fiscal support, they are going to feel that pain. it is going to impact consumption. inflation is different. from our perspective, we are happy to see a little bit of inflation if it is being driven by growth. clearly, beneficiaries are value-oriented plays, what we would call value with future, companies that have the ability to push input costs back into the market, and that is going to protect their earnings. other parts of the market, you are seeing the discount rates ratchet up, those other ones are
going to see more pain. haidi: we heard from an increasing number of corporate leaders, the pepsico cfo talking about inflation. >> i'm not going to assume it is transitory. i'm go to assume it will probably be around for a little while. we will build our plans around that. if we have inflation lowering more quickly, that is great, we will adjust. right now i am assuming it will be with us through next year. haidi: if corporate leaders are assuming inflation may not be transitory, does that have an impact on your earnings outlook? guest: absolutely. that is where you have to go to the companies and ask yourself, who can benefit from this? commodity plays are in a position to benefit. who are the companies that are going to see their margins narrowed by these input costs
that they are not able to put on their customers, and who are able to? clearly companies that have strong brands are in a better position to cause those on. that question is going to be important. it will be some time until we know how transitory inflation will be, but if we see it seep into things like wages particularly in western markets, it will tend to be a longer-term issue. haidi: we appreciate your time is always. we are taking a look at one mover to the downside. falling 1.4%. let's take a look at how it is training. report that autodesk is said to abandon after we saw a huge jump in the previous week after rejecting a takeover. at valued the software developer at nearly $4 billion. it was setting up to be the largest ever acquisition of an aussie listed tech company, but that offer we are hearing is
being abandoned. now falling close to 10% in the early part of the session. they produce software. let's take a look at oil, the big story of the day. we had an unexpected opec-plus deal being clenched to boost output as the gulf allies called a truce, reversing early gains. now down by over 1%. new york crude holding steady at the $71 level, but by about 1% with the release of 400,000 barrels a day into the market. let's get some more. we are seeing some pullback when it comes to reaction from oil prices. what are the near term implications, longer-term implications? reporter: we finally have a
deal. oil has been very volatile ever since the opec-plus coalition abandoned the deal, the negotiation. they did agree they will add 400,000 barrels a day from august until the output is revised. they will start putting more supply into the market and they will continue. agreement was possible because the saudi and other key members like ua you, saudi arabia, russia, they gave higher baselines starting in may 2022. it is positive because there is
less chance of a price war, it will probably push down prices. we have thus chance of that. it also reduces the risk of inflationary oil spikes. now that we have a clear picture , it will be good for consuming countries. kathleen: we spoke to jason from prestige economics, and he still sees upward pressure on oil prices. $80 and above, because demand is going to keep increasing, he said particularly next year. what is your sense of this? reporter: we also have goldman sachs saying the opec-plus deal supports a constructive oil view, i think because we do see demand coming back, especially
from the u.s. and europe. we are still seeing a more bleak outlook, because of the delta virus outbreak. it is the view of many analysts that they see demand coming back before supply. there is not a clear picture. we need to see how they will bring back the $400,000 and we need to assess it as the details come. kathleen: it is always in the details. thank you so much. there is more analysis later when citi's global head of commodities joins bloomberg markets. now let's get to haslinda with the first word headlines. haslinda: good morning. china has held military exercises outside of taiwan
after an aircraft landed in taiwan. that is according to the global times. the paper said the drills and the waters should be seen as a warning and determined to the u.s. and taiwan. it reported more complex military exercises will likely be staged in the future. angela merkel toward flood ravaged parts of western terminate as cleanup efforts continued, she called the situation frightening. the death toll is up to 180 as rescue efforts continue. her visit came a day after her heir apparent with some laughing while terminate's -- germany's president made remarks. in timeline, -- in thailand, police fired water cannons at activists marching to protest the government's handling of the coronavirus upgrade.
the protest came despite restrictions on public gatherings of more than five people. cases have exceeded 400,000 and daily fatalities are breaking records. mexico says it wants to restart diplomatic and commercial ties with north korea. the country's foreign minister made the statement at the un security council meeting. mexico cut ties under the previous administration in line with international law. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. haidi: still ahead, speaking to the executive director to discuss a meeting in the future cooperation. she junta later this hour. next, we discussed washington's latest move to stem beijing's
kathleen: congress is aiming to restrict china's ability to recruit scientists and academics in the u.s.. joining us now is bruce einhorn. we have seen shades of this before. what is happening now, particularly as tensions between joe biden and xi jinping seem to get worse? bruce: we are seeing in congress is actions from both the house and the senate, trying to address what both republicans and democrats he is a threat
from potential chinese espionage focused on u.s. universities. there was an attempt earlier this year to try and use the process that improves investment in the u.s., making that focus on universities. the latest is we are now seeing from the house, a proposal to prohibit researchers who are supported by the chinese government, have affiliations, from market u.s. institutions. haidi: how does this piece of the puzzle -- it's just another piece of the puzzle we are seeing when it comes to a broader u.s. strategy against beijing. how is that shaping up? we have a pretty good idea of what the biden administration is taking. bruce: this legislation, there is already something past by the
senate. the house is working on its side of it. they are hopeful they will be able to get something done in the fall. this is part of an effort by the biden administration to use both legislation as well as diplomacy, as part of an effort to capture china. -- counter china. haidi: we have some big guests coming up. they are joining us shortly to talk about the virtual meeting between world leaders held on friday. this is bloomberg. ♪
companies are increasingly uncertain about when they can get their money back, that is after beijing announced almost all businesses will require approval from the cybersecurity regulator. let's get more from our chief china markets correspondent. the writing was on the wall when it comes to this development. what are we hearing from authorities? reporter: good morning. this started to kick off when china increased its scrutiny of companies and industries, and more notably what happened with and group -- ant group's ipo. the signs very getting out of washington is that restrictions and tensions introduced under trump are only going to get worse. we saw that with the sec in new york, saying that companies --
chinese companies in the u.s. will be delisted if they don't have financial information available to american auditing companies, and that will take place in 2024. these companies are caught between these two forces that are making it difficult for any fundraising to be plan. kathleen: what will happen to the adr's that are already trading in new york? reporter: that is the key question. if you are a u.s. investor, are you going to lose money? we have seen large companies to secondary share sales in hong kong. one way to do this is using currency easily transferred from the u.s. dollar. what will likely happen is these companies, alibaba, jd.com, they
will transfer their primary listing to hong kong and keep token adr trading over-the-counter or an end to the adr program and payout to investors. in that way you won't lose money. the keyway is if these companies are taken private and relisted. the problem there, if you are a u.s. investor, if these companies are relisted on mainland exchanges, that makes it a lot more difficult to access. a lot of international funds can transfer. -- can't transfer. that is a key uncertainty. kathleen: thank you so much, the chief china markets correspondent. that widening tech line 10 and rising regulatory risks may also push softbank to push big bets in china and revamp its vision
fund strategy. i bloomberg strategist joins us now from hong kong. how could softbank hope with the rising china regulatory risks on the tech behemoths -- do they have much leeway? reporter: i think they do have some leeway. the fact that the vision fund was mostly invested already, the $100 billion, they used up more than 90% and they need to pay preferred dividends. but the second one, they have lots of leeway. as we observe, in the gym quarter, the allocation of the fund became smaller for each investment size. it is about 200 something million dollars. they already have 50 portfolio companies invested in the june quarter, and that is a lot,
given it's about $13 billion, given the first vision fund which they had more than 80 companies. secondly -- if i can talk about the investment phases. now that the investment will be more difficult to ipo, if they get involved in the earlier stages, for example in series a or series b financing rounds, if they get in earlier, and bennett come to those unicorns raising new money, they can also invest. not necessarily on ipo exit. haidi: i am of course wondering how the strategy will change in light of everything going on with china. what other changes do we expect from vision fund one division fund two? reporter: i would highlight investment sizes will be getting
smaller. they were probably refrain from putting into china. at the same time you see more diversified geography. we believe latin america or southeast asia will be the countries are markets that they focus more on, and even in south korea, last week we heard the news that the top travel company just got $1.7 billion in investment funding from the second vision fund. we will not rule out the possibility they want to regulate -- regulate the success of coupon, expand in southeast asia. haidi: always great to have you with us. bloomberg intelligence senior analyst. let's get you the latest check of the business flash bloodlines. -- headlines. a japanese company says it is focused on promoting a drug it
developed at medical institutions and providing access to patients. shares fell last week after two major u.s. hospital systems and health insurers declined the medication. we are seeing shares fall. a covert vaccine is reportedly effective against the delta variant, a paper published by the chinese academy of sciences shows there shots mostly retain efficacy when it comes to seven variants, including the delta variant. delta has spread to more than 100 countries. the australian government has teamed up with a $2 billion bid for a company that controls telecommunication assets. local media reports the government would put up about three quarters of the money, and a billionaire owner would remain on the board. the deal is seen as keeping them in the pacific and out of chinese hands.
>> several leaders including u.s. president joe biden and china's xi jinping talked on friday to discuss how the world can best emerge from the pandemic, even as nations continue to grapple with deadly resurgence is. let's cross over to singapore where haslinda amin is getting by with our next guest. has? haslinda: kathleen, covid-19 was front and center for apec members, with 50 million cases
and over one million deaths be experienced in this part of the world. let's get perspective and insight with rebecca santa maria, executive director of the apex secretariat. good to have you with us. good morning. you have committed to redoubling assets in terms of vaccine supply. how quickly can that be done. how will that translate? rebecca: thank you for having us. that meeting went very well. we saw leaders asserting their commitment to providing access to vaccines, and that is an important point. the other important point was highlighted was keeping the value chains and the supply chains going, looking at tariffs and not tariff measures when it comes to supply of vaccine. for example, it is not just moving the vaccines per se, but also have, for example, if you
are looking at simple things like the rubber stoppers, the vials, all of these carry tariffs. the alcohol, they carry tariffs. the point is there was commitment to bring those tariffs down during the period when it is needed the most to keep the vaccines going. access to vaccines was the most discussed, to see how we could facilitate the issues of making sure is equitable. . there was commitment also expressed by leaders to make sure that they provide vaccines, for example, singapore said it is going to share its excess vaccines. haslinda: what apec member nations like philippines or
singapore, what vaccine is more resilient to the delta variant, i mean, how much accessible to get of the vaccine? rebecca: at the end of the day we are working together to ensure that these vaccines get delivered. the leaders discussed this, they will make sure that they will provide vaccines to the economies that need it. one that was highlighted, and i really felt that the leaders resonated with it, was the prime minister of fiji highlighting the plight of smaller economies. this is, again, where collaboration more than anything else, is the key. as individual economies chart their own course for dealing with the pandemic, at the end of the day, it's about collaboration, about having those conversations and ensuring that the vaccines move. one of the important points is
that we have to treat vaccines and vaccination as a public good. it resonated very well among the leaders. yvonne:. haslinda: rebecca, this is the first time president biden is engaging with apec leaders. it is also coming at a time when he is pushing through that trade deal. what kind of reception have we seen among apec member nations to this digital trade deal? rebecca: the focus of this meeting really was on managing the pandemic, and so, helping economies deal with the pandemic. that was more of the focus. but having said that, president biden also indicated that the u.s. is deeply invested in the message that we --. haslinda: positively. at a time when the region and member nations are trying to fight this pandemic, there is
great tension between member countries, especially the u.s. and china. are you concerned that perhaps this would impinge on the unity of apec? rebecca: the value of apec is that we come in and we focus on what matters to us specifically the economic side of things. in a virtual environment, it is a bit more challenging to have those bilateral conversations which can help ease some of the tensions, if that is how we want to put it, back, at the end of the day, because this meeting was very focused, and i think prime minister jacinda ardern did a very good job of managing the meeting, the focus was what can we do to help each other deal with the pandemic? i think that message was most important. you know, also looking at, what also came through was the sustainable and inclusive
recovery. i think more emphasis was given on that part of the conversation, as opposed to what divides us. it was about more what unites us in apec. haslinda: after the conversation on friday, are you more optimistic that apec nations can count the 1% contraction that was experienced last year. rebecca: clearly, there is a lot that we can do together. we bring our support for a more transparent and multilateral trading system. rules-based trading system. the facilitation aspect is what will help us together come through this in build back better. at the end of the day, it is trade that is more open, and fair trade, that will help us grow. haslinda: and yet we are seeing
problems in supply chains in international trade, the u.s. and china basically looking at self-sufficiency, including in the area of semiconductors. how will you conduct trade in apec nations? rebecca: at the end of the day, trade is a two-way issue. you can try and onshore as much as you want, but at the end of the day it is about the value chains and the supply chains. no one in trade can go it alone. you have to look at how competitive you are, issues of competitiveness, you look at other issues, along the value chain logistics, it is not just about tariffs or onshoring, it is a bigger issue than that. it is also about the issue of trade facilitation, our work at the wto. those are more important than looking at a very narrowly.
. if you do it that way, it is a zero sum game, but trade is not a zero sum game at the end of the day. haslinda: thank you so much for your time today, rebecca fatima santa maria, apec secretariat executive director coming to us exclusively. haidi: great conversation, has. another big interview coming up, we will be talking to the american chamber of commerce in hong kong president. meantime, let's look at what we're watching on the markets. we keep going back to this reflation trade. sophie: in asia, materials and financials are leading the drag, still under pressure. ubs says the impact of the delta variant on the global recovery is being overstated. the bank expecting that governments will look through rising case numbers. south korea government confirming 1252 more cases have
been added for that covid count. but 12.8% of the public have been fully vaccinated, so some improvement. the kospi is under pressure, falling 1% a major this -- amid this original selloff. crude is below $71. goldman remaining constructive on oil prices, given that opec has a moderate increase to production. goldman is warning of continued volatility amid covid variant concerns. 1.21 on the 10-year. quibi yields falling. benchmark treasury yields have fallen below 127, trading at a february low.
1.25 is a level to watch. the bond rarely has a td securities wondering if all yields are pointed to cracks in the global economy which could mean the fed is making a policy error by signaling tapering early. kathleen: the rally continues in the treasuries even as everyone is worried about inflation. well, up next, another market concern. china's benchmark has not moved much in a year. more on that. this is bloomberg. ♪
haidi: china's benchmark loan rate will come under the spotlight, with market participants divided over the need. some see it is getting lower since early last year let's. get more with our reporter. when it comes to the lpr, that has been so much speculation over what the policy direction will be following that rrr move. >> after the excitement of last week there is more excitement on long-term rates. there is no defect or lending rate determined by chinese banks. this is the rate at which they lend to companies and households, it has basically held steady the last 14 months. there could be a possibility that rates may trend up to
reflect the liquidity injection that happened last thursday when they cut the reserve ratio and injected one trillion yuan on the system. given that we didn't see, we saw that rates held steady last thursday, there is data showing there is a possibility that lpr's economists are expecting that since numbers are showing a slowdown there may be signs that the chinese central bank will take more aggressive signs of monetary easing. kathleen: why is the pboc pumping liquidity into the system at this time? >> i think there is a lot of factors at play. obviously the central bank has been pretty clear in posting that this is not a new era of monetary policy.
obviously with the second have their is 4 trillion in debt maturing, compared to the first half when we saw one trillion. there is a lot of other factors like supporting smaller and medium enterprises, stimulating local government bond issuance. the government and pboc really want to support economic growth. second-half numbers, if they show a significant slowdown, they and support. haidi: if this is the start of a new cycle of monetary easing for the pboc, what are the implications for policy divergence? tania: there are a couple of economists on the street that have said that potentially this is the worst time for china to start measures of easing -- the best time because they contain their monetary cycle around the fed taper cycle. but we will not really know more
until we see the second-half growth figures. there is another tranche of debt that comes through in august so a lot of people will be watching how the pboc will handle operations in august. the other thing is china wants to manage its financial leverage message tightly. any signs of aggressive easing will not happen until they see more effective evidence of their stimulus measures. last week we saw in the bond market, bonds really rallied prior to thursday, thinking that there was a significant sign of easing. about the bonds actually came off their highs. we will just have to see until the second-half growth numbers come through. kathleen: thank you so much, tania chen markets reporter. not to haslinda amin for the first word headlines. haslinda: opec and its allies struck a deal to inject more oil into the recovering global economy. saudi arabia met the uae halfway in its demand for increased output, overcoming an internal
split that threatened the cartel's control of the crude market. that means hikes of 400,000 barrels a day starting next month. all members can increase production. in an about-face, u.k. prime minister boris johnson has agreed to isolate until july 26 after being exposed to covid-19. both he and the chancellor exchequer had initially said they would not. they came into contact with the u.k.'s health secretary. the change came and made a backlash one day before the u.k. is due to lift remaining virus curbs, and as daily cases hit a six-month high. tennis player coco gauff is out of the olympics after announcing on twitter that she tested positive for the coronavirus. she had not yet traveled to tokyo. organizers confirmed more positive tests for athletes inside the olympic village, two south african soccer players,
along with a team official, and head coach of the country rugby team. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am haslinda amin. this is bloomberg. kathleen: thanks so much. this country has reported the highest number of coronavirus cases in months, from an outbreak stemming from karaoke lounges and food centers. joining us is rachel chiang who leads our health care coverage in asia. rachel, phyllis in. how did this get started? what is driving it? and where is it going? kiddie poolsel: definitely quite a bad situation for singapore, it looks like everything traces back to this karaoke lounge that was operating illegally, really, and food and beverage outlets
that had social activities going on with some short-term -- with women who were in the country, working on short-term permits. it looked like it has been spreading in singapore for some time undetected. it is where most of the wet markets locally get their fish supplies. now there is a run on fresh fish. it comes at a time that singapore wants to shift from the aggressive approach. this is a setback and they will not be able to open or ease restrictions. haidi: are we seeing improvement when it comes to hong kong's vaccination rates? rachel: vaccinations have reached 2 million. but at the same time the hong kong situation locally is still very bad, only 25% are coming forward for vaccination compared
to almost 50% in singapore. the u.s. and the u.k., those numbers are reaching about 50%. in hong kong, i think the resistance is quite strong. because cases have been zero for over a month now, there is no urgency and people are not worried, they are living life normally. the truth is that probably those rates will go up when another outbreak happens. kathleen: so, rachel, as the tokyo olympics get underway this week, what is it, 85% of japanese people say they don't approve? how does the rest of asia look at the fact that prime minister suga has pushed on in a time when so many people think this should not be happening? rachel: rachel: people are fearing -- reduce e.f.-2's
testing positive, high-profile people like coco gauff. the overall impression is that most people feel the excitement, the kind of global unity that the olympics usually brings people together for. but this event has so many stakeholders and so many sponsors driving it to happen. at this point we are a couple of days away and it is happening no matter what. kathleen: bloomberg's rachel chiang from hong kong, with the latest on the virus in the region. you can catch up on past interviews with our interactive tv function, that is tv on the terminal. dive into any of the securities or the bloomberg functions we talk about, plus become part of the conversation by sending us instant messages during the show. this is for bloomberg subscribers only, on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪
kathleen: let's get the business flash headlines. facebook pushing back on president vibrant comments that social media enables the spread of misinformation about covid vaccines. the social media president of integrity said vaccine user among facebook users in the u.s. has increased. by the inside social media is killing people, allowing vaccine
it misinformation to spread. an investigation by the washington post found that an israeli company's spyware was used in hacks on 37 smartphones belonging to journalists, activists, and business executives worldwide. the fiancee of murdered saudi journalist was targeted, as well as journalists from cnn, the associated press, and the new york times among others. the company denies that the elegy was used against khashoggi. digicell controls telecommunication assets throughout the islands. the government will put up three quarters of the money. the deal is seen as a way of keeping telecom assets in the pacific out of chinese hands.
india's largest private sector lenders saw a net income of $1 billion in the three months through june and is the first major lender to report results as the nation emerges from her second coronavirus wave. now let's get a look at stocks to watch. back to sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. sophie: we are watching chinese tax cuts as markets assess the regulatory impact on the sector. there is monitoring of transaction-based platforms and less m&a activity. over in taipei, we are keeping an eye on shape players after -- on this cheap company after the founder said costs could be rising. and this company's earnings report card was disappointing, morgan stanley warning that gross margins could fall below 50% as early as next year.
counting down to the taipei opening, features are under pressure. this is a way to learn if soft lockdown measures will be lifted in taiwan this month in light of the rapidly falling number of daily cases. in the philippines, the first local case of the delta variant was detected on friday amid calls for faster vaccination. in malaysia, the government is targeting to fully vaccinate all adults by october, boosting the daily vaccination rate of 500,000. we saw futures move lower after --, a three week drop on friday. haidi: and of course the global growth outlook continues to preoccupy markets, particularly with questions as to whether this is a temporary blitz in inflation for longer term. one person who is definitely concerned about the longer-term trajectory is our morgan stanley investment manager, the head of
emerging markets he has also written a couple of great books about the rise of inflation in breakout nations. he says between the china take crackdown and whether u.s. consumers are going to start saving, those are the big issues . i have to say,, all my american friends are going on vacations buying cars, does it feel like it can continue? kathleen: there's a lot of money saved up by a lot of u.s. consumers. it was not just the stimulus checks it was not having anything to do, anyplace to go to spend the stimulus checks that came in the mail for so many americans. so i think he has an interesting point. i also think we cannot underestimate what it means for china to crackdown on its growth-spurring dynamic tech sector. i understand the need to rein them in, but there is no doubt that there is some risk here.
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yvonne: it is 9:00 in beijing and shanghai. welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." i am yvonne man. our top stories this morning, asian stocks start lower on inflation and virus concerns. oil under pressure after opec+ clinches a deal to increase supply. the u.s. wants to china's tightening grip in hong kong threatens the rule of law and