tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 7, 2021 6:00am-7:00am EDT
reopen faster than workers are ready to come back. >> we have missed on inflation for so long that the fed is focused on achieving its inflation target. >> why are we bearish on supply, it will pick up eventually. >> we will experience something that the markets are not prepared for, a contraction in personal incomes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro and lisa abramowicz. jonathan: this is bloomberg surveillance live on tv and radio. i am jonathan ferro, lisa is not in. joining us is romaine bostick. a little bit more than a 10th than 1%. we have to kick it up this wednesday morning. 30 south of two tends at 134. tom: we have to remember bond
101, but you have to remember where quoted yield, that is what we do. this is about price, this is a bid price up on bonds, and you saw the condition in equities yesterday in the nasdaq space. absolutely original bond market. jonathan: slice and dice the bond market with me. 10 year yields, -1%. what is the significance? tom: absolutely profound, three things make that up, the nominal yield, the inflation expectation is gyrating a little bit up giving you a residual that is ever more negative. the other thing we are dealing with is the x axis, the duration of the negative yield. swiss 20 year bonds flipped over to a negative yield last night, it is the lengthier of negative yields. jonathan: it is rotation on, rotation off.
romaine: rotation into growth and you have to wonder if this changes the belief in that reflation trade and inflation itself and in the trajectory of growth. a big reassessment not only in the bond market. jonathan: you were living it in the close, -- tom: you are living in the close. there was jedi and amazon. and then it got a life of its own around 2:30? romaine: what got the bid? you talk about money and price? it was in the stocks. was it a bet on growth or safety? there are a lot of people reassessing what the narrative should be. jonathan: let us go through the price action. good morning to you all. equity futures up six. advancing by 0.3%. there is the move. 13480. tom: the nominal yield, 1.3 480,
three basis points under 2%. this is so unexpected and what was the zeitgeist january and february? the inflation, higher in some levels and magnitude and we have gotten the exact opposite. i like what was published for deutsche bank talking about low r started, and price up in bonds and yields downs. jonathan: we are kicking off the morning with jim caron. number one question, the cyclical trade, the inflation trade, is it still on? jim: good morning and thank you for having me. i think it is still on, but we have shifted down. let me unpack this. what we have to understand is that the delta or rate of change is what matters the most to bond
investors. in the first quarter and parts of the second what we were seeing was rising growth and inflation, and an increase in policy -- policy easing. what the market is sensing as we are past the p. growth will decelerate and inflation will decelerate. we are past the peak in policy and we are looking to take that away. it does not mean that the level of growth is bad or inflation is too low or policy easing is too tight. what it does mean is that we are not going past the peak. the reflation trade that we are talking about will still be there, it will take a bit longer to actually achieve these goals. for example if we think about the more macro elements that make up the reflation trade there are three, one is higher 10-year yeilds, and higher
long-term yields and a steepening of the curve. and, you also have a weaker dollar. what happens is when everyone gotten to reflation trades there were underweight treasuries and they had curve steepeners and they were short the dollar. at the rate of change and pace of the move that is starting to decline, the second derivative, people are unwinding their short in the dollar they are taking off court -- curb steepeners and that is what is making all of this happen. tom: let us talk some math. it is math wednesday on " bloomberg surveillance." you mentioned the delta, and if i look at the convexity, and it is a bear squeeze. the delta is the first derivative and the gamma is the second. right now are you observing a convexity trade that overshoot's
and will climb back onto the reflation trade? or is there some substance to this lower yield market we are in now? jim: i do think there is a convexity component to the extent that you can overshoot lower. i think the 10-year yeild can get down to 1.25%, but i think it will get hard to get below that for any real material period of time, given what we know with the expectations to grow. growth is supposed to come in around 8%. next year, 4.5%. it will be hard for 10-year yeilds to stay as low, especially as the fed pulls back and tapers even a little bit. i think this is a collect -- re-correction. the reflation trade is with us but it will take time for these positions to get cleaned up. tom: if lisa was here she would be talking a third derivative, go at it. romaine: i will stick with the
first derivative, the fed. we talked about the messaging. a few weeks ago there was the perception that there was conception -- consensus at the fed. that does not seem to be the case. i am wondering how you are very -- viewing the messaging and how the market is interpreting it? jim: for the past couple of weeks the hawks at the fed have been winning the narrative. and i think it has become more dovish where people are taking the doves a lot more seriously. what did the fed tell us in the middle of june? effectively, it is time to start talking about talking about tapering and we need to see further substantial progress. the data is good right now, the problem is that it is not good enough. that is the debate at the fed, whether or not the data is good, but about whether it is good enough to get us to the next level which is for the fed to enact a policy change.
right now i would argue that the data is good, but i do not see how -- an acceleration to the point where we are going to have unanchored inflation that will cause the fed to act sooner rather than later. the mid-2023 dot, the expectation for the head to -- the fed to hike rates, i think it is valid, but i think the markets have started to push that into the end of 2022 and some had earlier than that, so i think that is all going away, and as people push back their expectations into that mid-to-late 2023 area, bond yields will fall. jonathan: the economic data could tell you so much and how the market responds can tell you more, what is your read on that? jim: the markets are telling you that we are going into a period where we are past the peak, and even if we look at the opec and
oil discussions, some people are talking about more stable to lower levels in oil, that is going to weigh on inflation. jobs data is not as strong as we hoped. it is strong, and still very good. the price action is effectively telling us is that they are chopping off the right tail ì(lc% great, so things might just be good going forward. we recognize it took a lot of policy stimulus, a lot of fiscal stimulus, it took a lot of work to get us to these levels, now that stimulus is starting to go away or it is already well-known and priced in. we need another catalyst to bring you -- bring us back towards higher yields. it needs to be there after everybody is cleaned up some of their positions. i think the underweight in the dollar and in u.s. treasuries, this is still the process of being cleaned up. i do not think the trend towards
higher yield is old -- is over, i think it will be slower and more of a grind and we will see changes relative to your point and positioning in the market. jonathan: it has been painful to commit to that trade in a cup -- in the past weeks. jim, it has been good to catch up. we seem to be focused on greater change not levels. i saw something yesterday which is a perfect example. deceleration, but the underlying story is clear. we do not have a problem with demand, but keeping up. tom: you go back to the foundation, the boom economy and everybody agrees. there can be a question about the glide path. sarah ellis mentioned that we had an r-starred adjustment. you sought with massive rotation yesterday. jonathan: romain brought up the federal reserve and he was right to.
he talks about a fed that shifted away from focusing on the unemployment statistics, the labor market, and the fed thinking about risk management. a change in emphasis matters in the bond market picked up on that. tom: searching for data and with the bond market, i like the soft data catching up with the hard data. they are coming together with a cautious view. far more, i would go to the earnings season. that could fold into a bond market analysis as well. july 13 is critical. i have never said that, those earnings season is the most interesting by far that i have ever seen. tom: jp morgan -- jonathan: jp morgan kicking things off. a headline out of haiti, the president has been assassinated. the afp citing the prime minister. tom: the prime minister with a 14 month term and there has been turmoil. the council of foreign relations have reported on the increase
protests and the idea that he was working with the judiciary. there is a lot of ill will in the caribbean's poorest country. jonathan: the president was " assassinated." more on that later. coming up abby of goldman sachs on this equity market at 43 49. good morning. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> japan is comparing to declare a new state of emergency in tokyo. that would mean the summer olympics will be held without spectators. the paper says that the prime minister will make the final decision earlier today. tokyo reported the most number of new coronavirus cases since may 13. president biden will take on the threat of ransomware against companies and local
institutions. over the weekend there was an attack blamed on russian hackers that affected more than 1000 businesses with victims in 17 countries. the president will meet with agency leaders to discuss administration strategy. the white house calls it a national security priority. hurricane elsa has weakened to a tropical storm and is expected to make landfall north of tampa. the top window reached 70 miles an hour and the concern is that also could push a dangerous storm surge in tampa bay raising ocean levels to five feet. new york city, eric adams has won the democratic mayoral primary meaning that the borough president is the overwhelming favorite to be elected in november. he held off kathryn garcia by one percentage point in the ranked choice voting. italy reached the final in the european championship.
discussed how the delta variant is responsible for half of all cases in many parts of this country. it is more easily transmissible, and potentially more dangerous, and it should be because of reconsideration -- look, let me put it another way. it seems to me that it should cause everybody to think twice. jonathan: the president of the united states from new york city. i am jonathan ferro. &w çlisa abramowicz is out of te country so romaine bostick is with us. new york on wall street, futures up five on the s&p. 43.48. outside of that in the barn market, -- bond market, unchanged. 1.3480. the 10-year yeild heading south. treasuries are firmer. euro-dollar is unchanged. just a rounded out, crude up 1.7% after yesterday's move
lower. tom: european yields common with the u.s. yields. this was a 20 year negative yield which is a big deal off of the positive move over the last couple of weeks. this is beyond important to the past and future of america, the great divide, not the two americas of john edwards. the science and antiscience. the great variola is to of texas did a brilliant -- virologist of texas did a brilliant article a couple of weeks ago. josh goes further with reporting from missouri, or white house correspondent joins us. the lump what the doctor told us in the missouri that you studied and the agony of sick people getting sicker, what is the level of anti-science you observed? josh: this is the part of the country that is very
conservative, very supportive of donald trump. they are having one of if not the hot spots for covid outbreaks in the country, particularly the delta variant, 96% have come back delta. they are having a problem right now. one hospital, its covid unit is more full than it has been in the whole course of the pandemic. the other one closed it special covid unit and had to reopen it is -- and the reason is vaccine uptake is low. it runs deeper than what might have been the assumption, that trump has not been encouraging people, but the people i spoke with said that even if donald trump told them to get it they have doubts. they wonder about the safety and they trust that people do not get the virus. tom: is it new, or can you say as i said to someone is it what
we saw with measles and rubella and other virus and bacterial illnesses? are we repeating history or is there something new here? josh: i think we always repeat history, for sure. early on, the biden administration set a couple of things. equity will be able -- will be a real problem and there are real reasons why african-americans will be not keen to jump onto the bandwagon of a vaccine. biden went after that, but what we are seeing instead is that there is progress there, but it is republican areas that are laggards. the vaccine map looks almost identical to the electoral college map. the lowest vaccinated states are republican and biden fell short of his july 4 goal, he had about 67%, and the reason is that he is way under that in republican
states and further under that in rural parts of those states. these have been the fastest to lift all restrictions, only at the hospital did i see a mask in springfield. overwhelmingly, no mask wearing, and they are in a crisis and the exhaustion of the health care workers you cannot imagine. they thought they were out of it and they are back into it. jonathan: this democratic administration is touting the science so let us go through some of it. we discussed how the delta variant is responsible for half the cases in many parts of the country. governor cuomo of new york over the fourth of july weekend more people were shot then died of covid. those of the stats coming from democrats. why on earth do we have these travel restrictions, why are we still punishing the airlines and why are we still keeping loved ones from loved ones and not doing something about this?
these were the former president's policies and this administration seems to be sticking with them even though the science does not back it up. josh: it has been a huge question mark. it was punted yesterday when asked about this. they were asked about vaccine passports, but they really are sort of skewing away from that. biden has changed his tune, which is notable. if you were skeptical about the virus and the vaccine, even if you were not a diehard republican we had the president telling you, biden has more or less declared that this thing is ready much over, and so he is having an independence day party at the white house. i think there is a risk that he sort of sends the message, but from his perspective he acknowledged that they cannot do anything in some cases. to get a hard-core conservative
to get a vaccine, biden would be the worst messenger. romaine: businesses are reopening and everyone is saying come back to our concerts, sporting events, and restaurants. the genie is out of the bottle in the big question is if we see a resurgence of the covid virus, specifically with the delta variant, is there any political feasibility at all that we could go back to any sort of mandated lockdowns? josh: not missouri and in a lot of places in this country. in fairness, one hospital chief says that they should focus their energy on vaccines, we are talking low vaccination rates in these places. in the 40% in the cities and lower than that in the counties. go back to jonathan's question that i could not directly answer, we simply do not know the timeline or any idea when they will lift travel restrictions. they have completely just push that aside and dodge every
question on it. i cannot say it more simply than that. they have ducked the issue. jonathan: that is not good enough. you know the response when you asked the president,, on, matt, -- come on matt, it is july 4 weekend. the economy has opening and here's a struggle to keep up with demand. here's the killer quote. restaurants are maybe 2 -- too quickly returning. some locations have limited hours as we cannot staff the restaurant to meet consumer demand. tom: i had breakfast yesterday one step up from mcdonald's, and they were half open and understaffed at that. you cannot get your order in. i was trying to get three eggs over easy, steak. jonathan: thank you. maybe that is the issue. romaine: it is an issue and i interviewed a couple of owners in new york a couple of weeks ago, and not only do they talk about the staffing issues, they
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jonathan: from new york city, here is the price action. into the opening three hours away. advancing about five points on the s&p, up 0.12%. we do not have proper risk off days where the equity market is fully risk. we have rotation on and off. yesterday was a perfect example. down 2/10 of 1% with the first day the market finished and the red since june 23. looking at sector. energy down 3.2%. banks down two point 5%. no surprise given what was happening about crude within the bond market in an aggressive rally. the banks stopped the first week of june, energy the middle of june, and if you switch up and
get to the bond market the story is as old as time because the 10-year yeild at the end of march at the closing basis of 174 and 40 basis points south of that. the 30 year yield, one 90's -- 1.9686. when you slice and dice the market what you find is that it is a real yield move. the first quarter of this year was not about reflation but a positive growth shock, and now this market is preoccupied with deceleration and reverting that shock. maybe that is a story reflected in the move in real yields in yesterday's session. tom: i want to advance it to friday where you have a meeting in venice, italy. i think you and i should attend that. and we should take that with us as well. the major issue as you come up with stagflation, and the emotion of a slower economy.
it is out there somewhere and that is one of the worries. let us jump over to that. david bianco from the dws group. he outlines how odd yesterday was. david bianco, these digital stocks seem to have a short-term life, but also a very long term as well. is that really what we are going to learn and earnings season? david: i think so. i think what we will learn is that these digital stocks, these technology and communication stocks, growth stocks in general are doing well for the past few years, they did well during the pandemic. they continue to do extremely well during the second quarter and we will hear about that during earnings season. the longer-term outlook in the next several years looks good for the digital stocks. the biggest threat to them, at least the perception of many investors was interest rates climbing.
we have gone out of our way to point out the difference between nominal and real interest rates, and real interest rates are at near all-time lows, but what has happened over the past couple of weeks with this kind of re-collapse of longer-term interest rates as jonathan was saying, the 10-year treasury yield going from 1.75 down to 1.35, 40 basis points might not be the biggest of moves, but it is significant and came at a time when people thought rates would rise further. text stocks, the re-rotation, it is back and i think it is here to stay. tom: i do not mean to cut you off. romaine is taking notes for the close. real simple, do you rebalance or do you still participate in the consensus cyclical global play that was en vogue eight weeks
ago? david: we are believers in the recovery, and the equity market is looking very good versus the alternatives that fixed income has to offer. we have leaned against the reflation and the cyclical value play. underweight industrials, materials, and energy. our view is that the inflation you have seen around the reopening is inflation that is transitory and will pass. high prices will fix high prices particularly for commodities. we believe that the cycle will last. but we think the better protection plays ours -- are banks and technology. all the other businesses we think will thrive, and as long
as inflation and interest rates do not serve we expect them to gradually rise. these valuations will make sense for these growth companies. jonathan: let us take it back to the money question, it was not the equity market, but what you wanted to earn and what divides a short term transitory reopening trade and a durable long-term investment in the cyclical space and deep value, what divides those two things in way -- why do you make the call effectively that it is the former and not the latter? this is just a short-term reopening play? david: this is a short-term, cyclical play. these stocks are having a moment and they will pass. a lot of these businesses are challenged whether they be retailers, commodity producers, this infrastructure package will not be as big as many people hoped and a lot -- and it outlook for a lot of end markets for industrials is challenged. cyclical stocks have had a
moment, and we thought that when people bought those stocks, the most difficult thing for them to do is to move from those deep cyclical values back to growth and many people might find themselves stuck in those value plays where growth stock and digital is where you want to be for the long term. jonathan: they have had a moment, and maybe that moment is over. if they stay down, the moment is done? romaine: go ahead, david. david: that is right. when you try to be very tactical in the markets and try to pick stocks off of the bottom as was an opportunity for energy stocks you need to make that trade collect -- correctly both directions. if you got it right buying up some of those stocks, great. as i said, the future belongs to growth, and digital. these trends have only been accelerated by the pandemic. romaine: we talk a lot about the price pressure, the wage
pressure and the leisure industry, hospitality. we are seeing those with the bigger cap tech companies as well, whether it is their own corporate hiring or their ability to source whatever they need out of the digital supply chain. i am curious if you worry at all that that could grow to be enough of a cost burden for some of these companies that we see more margin compression. david: the margins of the s&p have been superb for well more than a decade. 12% net margin for the s&p. 24% for technology stocks. technology companies are always vying to attract talent, but i do not think you have the wage pressure that you see at lower end pay businesses. in the real economy where there are some -- supply chain shortages, digital businesses are meeting demand fine. and it comes to the most
important ingredient about nhhzí digital one, semi conductors everything, that is what is in demand and we see pricing power and volume demand for semi conductors and it is about delivering it. the tech companies are better positioned when it comes to supply chain shortages. romaine: that is a rational case to be made. we are having this conversation at a time when regulatory concerns are swirling in the u.s. and abroad, and now apparently in asia. i am wondering if that has to be modeled in some way into these outlooks? david: it is a good question. i think there is an opportunity in eastern technology, china technology stocks right now, i think the opportunity is too big to ignore. while we recognize some of the pressures being put on these technology companies out of china, these are strong businesses. if you have been amazed at how big the technology companies have gotten in the united states
they are likely to get bigger in china. we like technology in the u.s. and asia, but it brings the point that this is the golden goose of economies, and it would be wise for leaders, our leaders and probably asian leaders not to kill the golden goose that is technology. jonathan: final question for me. frances donald remains one of the calls of the year so far. july 7 she said to me that she thinks we may have seen the cycle highs on a 10-year yeild already. do you think that we have? david: i do not. i think 10-year yeilds climb, but they will climb at a pace that is slow. and it does make the move to 2%, which we expect, it probably surprises us. and watch the legislation and washington, d.c.. i think the fed acknowledging
inflation risks, stabilizing the dollar and this slow down in the timing and the size, the ambitious size of the fiscal stimulus packages has a tamed influence date -- inflation packages and allowed them to stay low. jonathan: what a call that is. on friday for france's donald. cycle highs, 134. jonathan: a victory lap for those looking with lower yields. manual life has done it. i think the power game of guessing yields is always hazardous. it may be a little less hazardous than guessing and oil price. imagine the inertial force that it took to make amazon go up 4.6%. imagine the force of the price up that we saw in credit. just the wall of money betting on stagflation is substantial.
jonathan: you are relating to the pulsation squeeze and the low end, 1%. we were looking for 2% on tens and have to cover that short yesterday. i have been catching -- i will catch up with them a little later on this morning. that will take place at nine eastern. a lot of people were whipsawed. many people thought we had a can -- a position clear that would enable yields to reset. this second move is a lot more painful. tom: let us go to lisa and see what is happening in ig, what is lisa saying? romaine: we will have to get in touch with your. people are buying it. we are getting 3% right now. that shows a little bit of risk appetite despite what we have seen. jonathan: can i get -- tom: can it get narrower?
jonathan: going into the liv-ex july 23 japanese media reporting that japan is reporting a state of emergency for tokyo throughout the olympics. please, understand the severity of that situation for that country. thank you. 43.40. for new york city, this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: in haiti, the president has reportedly been assassinated. a group of gunmen said they attacked his private residence overnight, and shot and killed him and wounded his wife according to the associated press quoting interim prime minister, he has been struggling to recover from a devastating -- haiti has been struggling to recover from a devastating earthquake in 2010.
he defended himself against allegations of corruption. i'd and administration officials spoke to saudi arabia and the united arab emirates over the oil production. the white house is encouraged by ongoing talks. oil prices rose after opec oil -- members cannot reach a deal. in china, china calls for deeper cooperation with business peter -- business leaders. stable relations could help safeguard free-trade and promote global economic recovery. the fintech company that helped revolutionize the money transfer business has gone public. it went on the -- why it went to the london stock exchange instead of a traditional ipo. existing investors will be able to sell shares on the open market when trading begins. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
portions of the population of the world that have low vaccination rates is where delta will flare. when you look at the world and the lagging rollout and lack of vaccination in many parts of the globe, the delta variant will have an easy time running through those areas and the goal in those places is to get the high-risk populations vaccinated as quickly as class -- a possible. jonathan: from new york city, good morning. i am jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz is back with us next monday. romaine bostick is dropping by with us. the nasdaq is looking good, up .2%. almost 5%, positive 0.5%. down about half a basis point, 1.3430 after the big move lower in 10-year. we have reset with a 10-year yeild at 134. tom: the tape has improved in
the last hour. josh out with that definitive article in missouri in the united states. it is a big take bloomberg and very large read. right now on your fear of delta of a variant that came from india, can you imagine if there were variants from bangladesh, india, ghana, kenya, and ethiopia, and that would lead to the expertise of this doctor from johns hopkins. to say she is an associate professor does not describe her international academic -- epidemic study. do we underestimate the delta variant, if we are in missouri or manhattan should we be afraid of these foreign variants? >> i think it is somewhat challenging to call them for variant -- foreign variants. variants are variants.
they are emerging everywhere. should we be concerned and there is a higher likelihood of variants emerging from countries with higher vaccination rates or lower resources because they have a higher massive virus in circulation. so we should be worried until we have local pandemic control, we will get new variants. jonathan: is that something that the u.s. should be concerned about? dr. hansoti: completely. we have to look at the united kingdom. the united kingdom had similar vaccination rates to us around 60%. that 67 percent vaccination is impressive, but despite that we have seen consistency -- consistently rising cases. the cases almost doubling every single week. we are not seeing that in the u.s., but there is a tipping point. so we should be wary. jonathan: cases are on the up,
let us use the u.k. is a case study. is there anything to worry about as far as deaths and hospitalizations are concerned? dr. hansoti: we found that countries with higher vaccination rates, hospitalizations are lower. even though vaccinated people can get the delta variant and it is reported to be more dangerous, if you are vaccinated your diseases likely to be less severe. many countries have successively vaccinated the elderly, those that are immuno compromise, transplant patients and those at severe risk. romaine: this is not totally unexpected even when we started down this path of vaccinations, there was a lot of talk about new variants popping up in the need to reformulate some of these vaccines. what do we know about the process for doing that? dr. hansoti: so, the vaccines are currently and constantly being evaluated and trying to
identify the genomic sequencing. the sequencing is making sure that the vaccine mrna matches the mutations. it is a process, but we know how to do this, we do it every single year with the flu. every year we are prepared with a new flu vaccine, so it is not beyond the realms of our capabilities. romaine: are we at a stage where we have to start thinking about these covid variants as an annual shot that folks will need presuming that they are willing to take them? dr. hansoti: i think it is likely, to be honest. i think that this will be something like the flu that sticks with us, and that regular and repetitive vaccinations will be needed. flu is seasonal where is where we have the annual shots. with covid, it is uncertain if there will be an annual shot or a booster shot is new variants emerge. tom: if you were to parachute
into tokyo and give counsel to a beleaguered government trying to do this china or miss event. -- ginormous event. there will be fans -- they will be no fans, but you have sports with a lot of people. how do they do this given covid or fear of variants in spain, portugal, and other places? dr. hansoti: i think if i was in tokyo 2020 i would be saying why are we doing this on your vaccination rates are less than 20%. you're putting your populace at risk by putting individuals carrying a possible delta variant which we have already seen with the ugandan team. why is it important to have the olympics? if you are going to have the olympics, i think you would have to do a universal mask mandate, you will have to restrict vaccinated individuals from entering gaming arenas.
i think you will have to have on-site facilities for immediate isolation and quarantine if someone has symptoms or is symptomatic and then rapid testing to be able to identify individuals who are symptomatically cleese lake and self-isolate. jonathan: good to catch up and see you. i hope to catch up soon. the johns hopkins associate professor of emergency medicine. last night we had 50,000 people in wembley stadium watching the game. tom: there was a game last night? jonathan: we will go into that a little bit later. the broader point is that europe has been able to do this over the past month. if japan cannot do it they should've set a couple of months ago that they were not going to be able to do it and a lot of people are scratching their heads about the ability to get this done in the fashion people would like to see it done. tom: what is amazing is that the doctor is world acclaimed and she stole that line from surveillance. every morning we say why are we
doing this? why are we doing this? jonathan: what is the exit strategy if still today we are focused on the same thing. are we in a pandemic in newark city, do you still believe that? tom: i believe that. jonathan: you honestly believe that with the honest -- with the level of death? tom: we are in elements of epidemic but much less than other places. i go back to what the doctor said yesterday which is just the percentage vaccinated. that is the ratio we have. jonathan: if you compare and contrast the conversations we have today with the conversations 12 months ago the goalposts have moved. it was about protecting the most vulnerable in the society and it should've turn to individual risk and it has not. there is always something to worry about on programs like this and i fear that it will never stop. tom: i think the percent vaccinated will allow it to
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♪ >> 25% of the world is vaccinated. i think this reopening story is only just beginning. >> businesses are ready to reopen faster than workers have been ready to come back. >> we have missed on inflation for so long that the fed is really focused on achieving its inflation target. >> why would we still be bearish on supply? it is going to pick up eventually. >> we are going to experience something i don't think the markets are prepared for, and that is a contraction in personal incomes. >> thank you. -->> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: tech stocks looking good. from new york city, for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance ," live on tv and radio. lisa abramowicz is off today. romaine bostick dropping by. we've got to start with the center of this market. your 10 year, 1.35%.