tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg July 6, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EDT
>> 25% of the world is vaccinated. i think this reopening story is only just beginning. >> i do think we are far enough along that a lot of that scarring should begin to dissipate. >> we've missed on inflation for so long that the fed is really focused on achieving its inflation target. >> we are going to experience something i don't think the markets are quite prepared for, and that is a contraction in personal incomes. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.
jon and lisa off today. an exciting tuesday morning. we come out of the house of the weekend and into earnings season next week. matt miller romaine bostick joining me as well. we got the right guest here at the top. chris grisanti will join us with m&a capital -- with mai capital . but i'm sorry, china going after finance and capitalism. romaine: this is going to be the big talk because we came into today talking about didi, which had a great ipo, and they were immediately cut to size by chinese regulators, and i guess what is being wrapped into data privacy concerns. now we have a headline on weibo, the big social media site over in china, which came to the u.s. market back in 2014. that company now planning to go private, according to sources
familiar with the situation in a story by reuters, saying that the chairman and a state investor are in talks to take weibo private for $90 to $100 a share. that is why you are seeing the adrs bid up by about 40% in the premarket. this is going to cause a lot of discussion about the influence of chinese regulators right now on the publicly traded chinese stocks, and whether these companies and their executives want to remain in the public sphere. tom: the adr in 2014 at $17 a share. for all on radio, all you need to know is $54 to $70 just in the opening credits of this hour of "surveillance." we go $70 to $77. this is really destabilizing. i remember when you were doing bloomberg green wind -- bloomberg rewind years ago and we were celebrating chinese
capitalism. what a different story in this 2021. matt: it does look like they want to get a handle on, especially their big tech and fintech companies. we have seen this happen with alibaba, with ant group, di di. alibaba had 40% of weibo in its ipo, so these are a big web of connected tech companies that are all getting put back down. romaine: the reverberations from this are going to be amazing. we should point out pretty much every big volume mover right now in the u.s. premarket is a chinese stock some stock linked to the chinese markets. tom: stay with us through this. we can see that the u.s. ownership of this adr, the domiciled rights out of cayman islands, this is typical chinese business. they come over here where we can trade them in america. invesco, 7%. alibaba, 7%. wells fargo, 3%.
and on and on. christopher grisanti of mai capital is a great student of the equity markets, looking for value within growthiness. do you own any of these chinese companies? christopher: we don't. we think there's a lot of opportunity here that is much simpler. if i was a weibo shareholder, i would be afraid. i think hong kong was frankly taken private several months ago. it is an issue of control. i think it is not data. it is about controlling the most import political and corporate entities in the country. tom: i think you and i are on the same page as this. your job is to talk about it. my job is to ask questions. we talked to richard haass about american disarray. is this capitalistic financial disarray? chris: no, in fact, i think it is a beijing exercising its
strength and perhaps taking advantage of an america in disarray, but also exercising strength. i would suspect we will see more of that in the second half. romaine: i am curious about what the effect this could potentially have on american companies. there's been a lot of reports about some of the issues tesla is having with regards to its relationship with chinese authorities. apple and the iphone basically wouldn't exist without its relationship with china. is there a point where u.s. investors, european investors need to start being worried about the ties that those countries and those companies in those countries have with china? chris: yeah, i am only half joking when i say there was a point, and it was last year. i really think what this exhibits is a flexing of muscles much more overtly than we have seen in the past, but clearly,
the chinese have not been trying to hide the ball. they want control over just about every financial transaction and corporate move in the country. so i think it is a tough place to do business as the major tech companies have been finding out. romaine: it is also a relatively lucrative place to do business, based on the size of the population and the growing wealth there. for a company like apple or any big tech company that wants to have a presence there, how comfortable are you as an investor in some of those u.s. names and being exposed to that chinese market? chris: not terribly comfortable. facebook is a perfect example. without it, even though it is such a terrific market, the rest of the world still dwarfs china by itself. so facebook, google had been doing pretty while without towing the line and basically having been mostly excluded from the market base, so we like that. matt: a number of those
companies actually threatening to pull out of business in hong kong if they have to toe the line there. is that a concern for you, when you look at international companies you are invested in, how they do their business in china, how they manage that balancing act? of course. i'm a great admirer of richard haass's, and i think the black swan we may be seeing over the next few years is a real hot confrontation with china, and that very much worries me. it is on the negative side of the balance, those companies that have china is a large piece of the pie for revenue or profits. matt: but more and more, that's got to be all of the big companies you are invested in. the big banks come of the cyclical scum carmakers, the big companies, they all have to do business in china, their
biggest, fastest growing market. chris: i wouldn't go quite that far. i think facebook is excluded from china. google is mostly excluded from china. and they are doing pretty darn well. obviously they would be able to grow a lot faster, but they are doing ok as it is now. but having said that, we can't keep on going like this, with people who can and people who can't. there's a resolution coming. i am just not sure it is a happy resolution. tom: we are not having a normal christopher grisanti interview. to bring it back to something you have been expert on and profited on, that is apple computer. i believe apple has manufacturing facilities in china. i believe apple has a lot of revenue coming from china. is your confidence in apple shares affected by what china
does with chinese stocks? chris: how can they not be? even greater, we are not super positive on apple, as opposed to other alternatives in the technology space, simply because at the end of the day, most of its profits still come from iphones. i love apple. i love tim cook. it is just an extensive stock at over 30 times earnings. when i can get a faster growing non-hardware stock like facebook , selling in the low 20's times earnings, i just think there's other, better ways to play tech growth than apple at this current time. tom: we will leave it there. thank you so much. overlaying on this is the land of richard haass and international relations. the german defense minister right now rejecting chinese claims in the south china sea. this is condemning china on human rights. that folds right over into the
combined tensions of beijing and their tone on chinese capitalism and wealth creation into the international sphere. matt: absolutely. and don't forget that merkel, macron, and xi have just had a conference together, or continued to talk about how they can better do business, so it is really interesting that they are issuing a statement about china on human rights. her boss needs xi to be in a good mood when they talk, right? there's so many moving parts here, but i thought richard haass was brilliant on this earlier. berlin has to be able to work with putin and xi, and that doesn't make berlin an easy partner for biden. tom: let's bring it back to finance. on radio and television if you are joining us now, it's been an interesting tuesday after a fourth of july holiday, shaken
first by dd announcements -- by didi announcements, stock down, and we bow announcements, stock up -- and we bow -- and weibo announcements, stock up. chris: it is not really -- romaine: it is not really cheer how long these talks have been taking place. this is based on a road's report. we will see how the reporting shakes out through the day. but i think there is a broader issue here. the idea of the spotlight being placed on some of these ceos come of the swagger we have seen out of them and the way that the chinese government makes it very clear that you are going to do things their way or you are not going to do it at all. tom: maybe starting with alibaba a number of weeks and months ago . it added 10% on a 77% reuters reporting on the privatization
of we bow -- of weibo in china. futures at -2%, dow futures at -- at negative two, dow futures at -37. this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. oil jumped to the highest price in more than six years today after a bitter fight between saudi arabia and the united arab emirates blocked the supply increase and plunged the opec's coalition into crisis. the coming days will determine whether the battle will escalate into something as destructive as last year's price for. president biden and russia's vladimir putin face an early test as an agreement in syria is set to expire.
in the u.k., business owners welcome boris johnson's plan for reopening. there's also the issue of liability surrounding infections in the work. the global semiconductor shortage hammered second-quarter sales of jaguar land rover. the british luxury car maker says the deliveries will be 50% worse than originally planned, but automakers also warned of a sales squeeze due to the chip shortage. shares of ride-hailing giant didi plunged in pre-trading in the u.s. come on news that the company would be removed from app stores. china cited security data as a risk. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
matt and romaine bostick with us. you come back -- matt miller and romaine bostick with us. you come back from fourth of july holiday. we are fortunate that tom orlik with bloomberg has come out with an important story today on the 100th anniversary of the communist party experiment. i have actually visited the museum and shanghai, the small, simple building where the ccp was formed 100 years ago. tom orlik giving us color in china and the bubble that never pops. we are thrilled he could dance the story this morning, against the backdrop of a new capitalism in china. the new capitalism is simple. we are not going to let you be western. are you surprised by didi, by alibaba, and the news this
morning of weibo? tom o: certainly some interesting develop its. jack ma getting into trouble last year. didi with concerns about data, and now the news that weibo will potentially be going private. this speaks to a few trends. firstly, the communist party clearly in no mood to brook any challenges to their authority. also, i think some legitimate concerns in china, as in other parts of the world, about the power of big tech companies. we see the white house and the congress in the united states. -- in the united states beginning to move again some of the big tech giants. perhaps china is actually a little bit further ahead on that agenda. tom k: how far are we from shao on lay -- from opening up?
if that's what we are doing within our stocks and our capitalism in china? tom o: that's a really great way of phrasing it. one way of thinking about china is that it would -- it was closed, and then mao, richard nixon, and that historic meeting, opened it up. that is what leads the groundwork for china's extraordinary growth story. it was the opening between china and the world and china's and orma size -- china's enormous size, which created the conditions for four decades of rapid growth. here we are, firms about chinese stories -- stories about chinese firms going private, perhaps we are swinging the other way. the connections to the rest of the world are two various metoo important, but certainly the
risk -- are too various, too important, but certainly the risk is that we swing the other way. matt: the reason you do that is that they point out a lehman style collapse could put china into a gross trajectory that looks a lot more like japan then a covid recovering u.s. is it possible that china has lost decades? tom o: we have spilled a lot of ink arguing that risks of a china financial crisis are overstated. china has a huge savings rate, which means it's banks have a very robust basis for their operations. at the same time, if we are thinking about the u.s.-china economic race, we are thinking about a 10, 20 year timeframe. we are thinking about the huge amount of debt, which china has
already taken on. clearly we can't rule out a financial crisis. if that does happen, if we layer a lehman type shock onto china's gross trajectory, it really changes the picture, and the picture changes from a two-year china overtaking the global number one spot to china being locked in a permanent second-place. matt: we all know the size of the workforce is incredibly important, and of course, the demographic challenge that china faces even though it is so large , a lot like the demographic challenges a lot of economies are facing, that is that they don't produce enough new kids. their military might, i wonder about that. how important is it? the u.s. invested a lot in its military and reaped some real gdp growth gains because of it. tom o: the story is about
whether china will overtake the united states to be the biggest economy in the world, and of course, become giannis party at their 100th anniversary in beijing last week trying to tell a story about how that was an inevitable trajectory, how china's rise couldn't be stopped. the reality we think is that there's much more risk there. you mentioned the demographics. clearly that is the potential for military frictions, even military conflict, to derail china's trajectory as well. romaine: but then i always turn back to the economic issues here. the idea that there is an economic power that even the united states might have trouble going up against. you talk about the evolution of china and the anniversary of this communist party, and a society that now exists here between communism and capitalism
. is there sort of a buffer here that xi and the rest of the chinese authorities have that will prevent or at least stave off any real challenge militarily, economic or otherwise? tom o: here in the west, we have consistently underestimated china's potential to grow and china's potential to solve economic problems. if we look at some of the elements of the big picture, china, a population of 1.4 billion. gdp per capita currently 20% of the level of the united states, but catching up fast. so china only needs to close a bit more of the gap in terms of gdp per capita with the u.s. in order to take over. that makes china as number one a plausible base case, at the same time, with the risk of globalization, global isolation, with the risk of financial
crisis come with demographic drag, with reforms stalling, i think china can't be taken for granted. that is the big point we try to make in the piece today. tom k: tom orlik, thank you so much. he's the author of "china: the bubble that never pops." i'm going to call it a pretty good eight after the jobs report on friday. tom k: if you are -- romaine: if you are in the u.s., things are looking decent here. u.s. tech stocks, as well as the energy, looking to provide a decent lift as we get through the day. of course, a lot of eyes still on those chinese adrs. tom: very good. we are scrupulous about "surveillance" corrections. a gentleman on twitter corrects us, and that the 28 year elevations of pilots is still way below mr. bezos and mr. branson will fly into orbit. matt: i got a lot of pushback on
tom: good morning. bloomberg surveillance. jonathan ferro, lisa abramowicz, tom keene. they are off. holding me off, romaine bostick and matt miller. romaine bostick back from massachusetts and matt miller in berlin. very exciting day. i thought it would be a snooze fest. remain, help me with the data. romaine: the nasdaq composite, right now futures up .1%, a similar story for the russell. flat on the day. a lot of the tech names and the nasdaq, a lot of the energy names in the russell, that is why you're getting a pop.
what will sway the market, we will see what happens when it opens. what happens with the chinese adrs in the u.s. companies linked. tom: inflation-adjusted yield a stunning -.95. to see a negative 1.00 would be something really pushing against the economy recovery. right now on the american economy, i have to explain this for radio. what we have learned at surveillance that in the pandemic we do work from home shots there are usually stunning bookshelves and we keep track of who is reading what. we cannot do that. let me describe the picture. this is a suburban home, a beautiful apartment, with a staircase and a child protective barrier at the top of the staircase. in front, between neil dutta and
the staircase is 147 stuffed toys. it is the neil dutta trifecta holding court with twins at five and five and three and three years old as well. how has the pandemic been? neil: it has been challenging. work from home will start soon and i can go back to the trading floor background. or maybe back into your studio. that would be great also. tom: you have a countdown clock to get back to the office you can escape the dutta trifecta? neil: it has been on since june of last year. tom: let's talk about the escape from the pandemic. a good jobs report. can you be optimistic we continue this trend? neil: i think so. if you look at the last jobs number, the improvement was driven by two areas.
leisure and hospitality and state and local government. that is important because those two sectors are responsible for about half of the shortfalls, half of the key middle of shortfalls since february 2020. it stands to reason we should be optimistic. you know demand for leisure is picking up. you know what the tsa data is looking like. hotel occupancy is look like normal. state and local governments are flush with cash. a lot of people are making arguments about seasonal adjusted factors, the seasonal noise around june. let's keep it simple. we know state and local governments are flush with cash and schools will reopen in earnest most of the country in the fall. i think the numbers continue to rise. romaine: when you look at the gain we have's seen -- if you look at the gain we saw in the leisure and hospitality numbers and some of the wage numbers,
what can we read through from that to the rest of the job market? neil: in that industry there is a challenge in terms of bringing people on. that is why you're seeing wage growth surge. it is for a variety of factors. obviously the ui issuance is contentious, but i think schools are a big factor. i think the covid situation is a factor. people are still resisted to return to the workforce. that being said, what we are learning about the broader economy is the demand curve shifts much more quickly than the supply curve. the supply curve tends to be somewhat binding in the short run. why would you still be bearish? it will pick up eventually for any number of factors. romaine: so that brings us to
the big question about inflation and whether we should buy into the messaging coming out of the fed consistently that this will be a transitory event. neil: it depends -- and their framework everything is transitory as long as employment is below what they define as maximum employment. because participation rates are below the level we saw before the pandemic, any increase in inflation is transitory. over the next six to 12 months we will see the reverse of what we saw a recently, which is the one factors driving inflation higher. going forward it will be the reverse. the one factors holding inflation down, but under the surface prices continue to accelerate. there was an article about how rental inflation is still picking up. those prices do not change quickly. the fact is inflation is picking
up from the lows running at 3% to 4%. that was something that took several years to do following the financial crisis. matt: they will not come down. i talked to the ceo of siemens a couple times in the last few weeks, i talked of the ceos of the big automakers. they are raising prices because they have higher input costs. next year, when the input costs are back to normal, they will not lower prices. they might not raise them as much in the future, but the bottom line is you see this inflation not as a sector of what we saw the 1970's and 1980's, we are not worried about anything more than 3% or 4% in terms of core cpi sticking around too long. neil: inflation will be transitory in the sense we will not have inflation growing at 7%
annualized the next 12 months. the fed thinks inflation is growing do something around 2% next year. the issue is whether inflation, how much inflation grows. if it sticks around the 3%, that becomes an interesting discussion at that point. inflation is going to moderate and i think that is going to provide temporary relief to some of the doves on the committee. i think the bigger issue is we are transitioning from one inflation story to the next. the fed does not get a chance to catch their breath. they'll be vindicated in the consumer durable prices which will fade as supply chains normalized. on the back end we are transitioning to the rental inflation story, which will not go anytime soon. people are going back to the cities. if your landlord, will you ask for less rent?
the underlying value of your asset is going up. that is happening at a time when the labor market progress will be much further along. matt: i want to get your take on the fiscal side. the last time i was lucky enough to be on this program with tom we got to talk to david rosenberg and he was saying the elephant in the room is the fiscal support is going to fall off a cliff. what do you think? we cannot even agree on a bipartisan infrastructure deal as our roads and bridges are crumbling. we will not go back to $5 trillion and $6 trillion support packages. how does the mst economy flourish after that? neil: many of the people who argued the stimulus was never sent in the first place was
suggest it will be a big drag on the back end. the data remains quite high so the stimulus we are seeing could leak into the economy for years. there will be a fiscal squeeze. that is also coming against an improving economy, against state and local governments on 4 -- on firmer fiscal ground. i do not know that that will be destabilizing in the economy. i think that is a red herring. people were making that argument in 2010. the fiscal think would lead to a double-dip recession. now the economy has a much more momentum. tom: we have to leave it there but i want to be sure the dutta trifecta gets through the day. i think the acquisition of more stuffed toys would be beneficial.
on bloomberg radio, you do not have any beanie babies, do you? neil: now. tom: good. a beanie baby free house. he had a terrific chart on part time for economic reasons. we will dive into that at another time. right now, romaine bostick, i will have you translate, because you are fluid in mandarin, we bow pairs gains after the -- romaine: reuters had a report saying they would go private. now being told by a spokesperson that report is "not true." they did not elaborate or provide any other commentary. shares had been up as much as 40% premarket now pairing the gains, only up 10% or 11%. tom: 54 to 77 to 60.
influence is being felt, that is something to keep in mind. tom: romaine bostick sliding by with a four hour day. caroline hyde may need some help. we have brian belski coming up. romaine: map is working overtime, too. tom: with brian belski you have to do a minnesota vikings update. what is the chance caroline hyde does not know what minnesota vikings is? romaine: she has no idea. tom: they wear purple. brian belski on the equity market. he has made an adjustment. red and green on the screen. stay with us on radio and television. ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. the price of west texas intermediate oil has not been this high since 2014. crude surged after a fight between saudi arabia and the uae block supply increase and plunge the opec-plus coalition indoor crisis and left the global oil market without the after supply it has been counting on. tomorrow germany will make it easier for travelers coming from the u.k., portugal, russia, india. they will no longer have to quarantine for 14 days. germany's virus variant list, south africa --
the summer olympics will begin before a mostly empty stadium. the government is arranging for the opening ceremony to be held with a reduced number of vips in attendance. originally 10,000 people were expected to be allowed. in brazil president bolsonaro popularity falling to the lowest level since he entered office. a legend he -- it is alleged he turned apply i -- a blind eye to a kickback scheme. he is up for reelection next year. the cost of renting a home is soaring in cities across the u.s. according to apartment last. the median national rent climbed 9.2% for the first half of 2021. that is squeezing the finances of low income households. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
think the shortage in housing will become more acute and we continue to like it as a sector to invest. tom: jonathan gray with blackstone. bloomberg wealth and david rubenstein. this is a penetrating interview. on top of where we are into the summer of post-pandemic or coming out of the pandemic. jon gray with real wisdom. look for that tonight at 9:00 in new york. romaine bostick and matt miller in for jon ferro and lisa abramowicz. romaine, where are we on weibo? romaine: we are basically where we were a few minutes ago. up about 11% or 12%. we work well above 70 a little while ago on that report out of reuters the company might be considering coping private -- might be considering going private. a brief statement that report is "not true." tom: always true is barry
ritholtz, dead on with market wisdom and particular the joy he actually runs money, which is a clarifying experience as well. let me start with that. you have a chestnut report of some of the scenes of investing, some of the things to do right. what i have always found true is you cannot model out without having real money in risk. your models are what they are. you have to enjoy the joy of losing money to get clarity. barry: for sure. i have described in the past books i called ministers without portfolios. very easy to be a monday morning quarterback when you're not on the gridiron, do not have giant linebackers coming at you, knocking you over and hurting you. in the markets, without feeling that pain of 30% drop down, i cannot tell you how many people i have met who claim to have
been big buyers in the great financial crisis drawdown. they managed the bottom ticket in march 2009, and then again last year. it seems everybody is a perfect market timer. it is amazing. you can do that when you're sitting on the couch with a remote in your hand as opposed to dealing with clients crying i will not be able to retire if i lose 34%. that focuses you. barry: -- romaine: talk about this idea of managing emotions, both the passive investors and active investors. at the end of the day it is just money and you have to take emotion out of the game to make a proper decision. barry: let me gently correct you. at the end of the day, it is more than just money. it is people's livelihood, retirement, security, their comfort level. that said, i have to quote
william bernstein, who is both a neurologist and a money manager. the quote that has always stayed with me is "to the extent you succeed in finance is based on your ability to suppress your limbic system. if you cannot do that, you are going to die poor." if you cannot control your emotions, the greatest portfolio in the world that leads people to panic and dump stocks, that is not the right portfolio for that person. matt: how important is age? my mother is now months away from retirement. in march of 2020 she called me in absolute tears. meanwhile during the great financial crisis she still had a decade to go. i do not think she even knew her financial advisor's name. doesn't make a difference how
far away you are? barry: your age and your date to retirement is going to determine how much risk you should be taking in your portfolio. when you look at things like target funds, which people drag all of the time for not being the highest alpha producing models, that is by design. the closer you get to retirement, the risk dials back. low producing assets like fixed income increase, so you're not going to have a disastrous, i am a year away from retirement and half my money disappears. you are trading off. this is one of the things people forget. risk and reward are two sides of the same cory. if you want -- of the same coin. if you want higher returns you have to accept greater risk, that includes the possibility of a permanent loss of capital. romaine: you have this great
column, the 10 simple money rules. one of the role centers around the idea of spending. it seems like such a simple concept but a concept a lot of us have trouble doing. barry: pressure. i have to -- for sure. i have to preface by saying i have no patience for the spending's goals who whine never buy a new car, do not buy a lot take. that is terrible advice. the math is simple. however much you make, whether it is $50,000 or $50 million, spent less than you, spent less than you earn, pay yourself first, put some money away for -- and you will be ok. i saw somebody complain about people buying new cars and an nba star was driving a 15-year-old sub and they were
lauding that -- suv and they were lauding that, and i say modern safety features are so much better for a $75,000 bill with a guy with a $50 million contract. if he damages his knees with a fender bender, his career is over. sometimes you have to spend. i keep coming back to it. if you can afford it. if you can afford a sailboat, by a sailboat. romaine: no boats. barry: if you cannot, don't. matt: that is danger. tom: thank you so much. an important column. we will get that out on twitter. we have to go back to what we are seeing in china. it is original. the overlay is with president xi speaking right now, i'm not sure if we have images for radio. radio loves images.
romaine: i'm sure they love that as they are driving on the roads. for our television audience, this will be talked about a lot on all of the programs. not only weibo but didi and everything connected to china. president xi and how they view the business markets. romaine: give us an absurd -- tom: matt, give us an observation on spain and italy. matt: i am hoping for the sanctity of my household that spain wins. on the other hand francine lacqua will be heartbroken if italy loses, jon ferro will be heartbroken. all of my best friends want italy to win, but i only care about my wife. tom: red sox take on the angels tonight. this just in as we are talking about boats. romaine bostick with wise counsel. one of our viewers, riley from st. louis. "boats are expensive."
viewers worldwide, i'm carolyn hyde in for jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. >> everything you need to get set for the start of u.s. trading. this is "bloomberg: the open" with jonathan ferro. ♪ caroline: we begin with the big issue. investors debating the fallout from surging oil prices. >> there are risks and opec-plus. >> we know opec needs to maintain oil prices at a certain level. >> what that means for inflation. >> it is an interesting phenomenon. >> that is a key question. >> if you're a central bank,