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tv   Bloomberg Surveillance  Bloomberg  July 2, 2021 7:00am-8:01am EDT

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>> i think consumers have money in their pockets and we will have a super holiday season. >> i think we are far enough along that a lot of that scarring should begin to dissipate. >> even as the economy slows, rates stay low and we will get long-term equity return. >> we think any paul birx -- pullbacks or pauses in the market could be shallow. >> we are heading to environments where they should consider tapering. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. jon: 90 minutes away from the payrolls report. for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is "bloomberg surveillance," live on tv and radio alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz. i'm jonathan ferro. good morning. 43:13 on the s&p, all-time highs into the jobs report. tom: a boom economy, and i think it's important to focus on the
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labor economy and how it goes into two things, the guesstimate on the economy, the guesstimates have gotten more positive, and constructive, and the other is the inflation dialogue over laying it. maybe that's a mystery but most people see higher inflation, big nominal gdp, that means job formation. ellen: guesstimate -- jonathan: guesstimate, and i think that is what it is going to payrolls. we have 1050 at the high-end. tom: the numbers are there, and if we will look at the headline number, i will go to wages, less what i was talking about, rising inflation. there is a negative real wage in america, that is never good. jonathan: do higher prices fix the problem in the labor market? lisa: not less the higher wages turn into equally a higher -- equally higher wages than higher prices. if you have wages that are lagging behind these other input prices and terms of inflation,
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you do not get persistent inflation at the federal reserve -- that the federal reserve is looking at. i think that is what you are seeing in the ism data and with respect to the commodity prices and respond to the bond market. jonathan: we need to work out the response to the bond markets. yesterday, we had this really strong number north of 60, but with a really strong inflationary impulse to it. 42 your highs. if i gave you that information, what would you do with it? what would you expect? tom: high yields. jonathan: steeper curve? lower yields flatter curve. that is what we got. you have two choices, either the market believes that this high rate of change of inflation is transitory, or an alternative explanation over the last couple weeks is you believe now that when higher prices start to come through, you question the reaction function of the fed, believe the fed has to move quicker, and it chokes off what could happen with inflation translating into high yields. what are the two options? tom: i'm going to go with i
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don't know what the dynamics are going to be. it's like newtonian plumbing system of the 19th century, and we are in any area we have never been before. -- in an area we have never been before. i will go back to the payrolls, and my guess is it could be constructive. jonathan: 720 is the estimate into the payrolls report. it's 90 minutes away. six days of gains on the s&p 500. could it turn into seven? the fate of the trading day may be in the hands of a jobs report that comes 8:30 eastern time. 43 point 14 on the s&p 500 -- 4314 on the s&p 500, yields down again down to 1.44. euro-dollar is 118.31. tom pointed out earlier, a stronger dollar and the mix. lisa: perhaps the believe they will have to raise rates, though unclear perhaps europe will remain easier than the u.s. for longer. hard to believe the dollar strength if you believe
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reflationary as a story which is being challenged. 8:30 a.m. time we get the jobs report. i will be looking at the dynamic. how much of the job gains are stemming from the main areas shut down during the pandemic that are restarting quickly versus the rest of the economy? how much momentum is there under these gains? 10:15, we hear the political spin and president biden is speaking about the jobs report. we expect him to talk about enhanced unemployment benefits. the highly political issue about if you are paying people more money to stay out of work, why would they get the job? people have blamed this for the lag inflection and a number of states have ended it. today, opec-plus will negotiate output cuts. this is one of the big sleeper issues. i think it is important to take a minute on this. tom: please. lisa: there was a disagreement in the opec-plus members, and the united arab emirates pushed back on the process by which they measured output. they did not come to an
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agreement. if they do not come to one, and don't raise production to meet the increased demand, you will have a rollover of seeing the production limits, which means the supply not necessarily meet demand in the same way, leading to higher prices. a key question going forward. tom: i got a jump in here, because i think it is important that we see miss abramowitz with a european focus on her work today. jonathan: absolutely. tom: jon and i will be enjoying rain-swept new york city. let's go to the greek data check. we can do that with athens equities up at an 888 level. jonathan: nice. tom: i believe they use the euro on one of those islands in greece. lisa: thank you. tom: i think that is the price -- no, that is the nash -- i thought that was the price of feta cheese but that is the national bacon grease time. jonathan: you keep working on it. tom: good to have you want us come up prime minister. jonathan: euro-dollar, 1.1833.
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what is the plan, lisa? lisa: there is a system in place. jonathan: you have euro's already? lisa: yep. jonathan: what was the exchange rate for you? lisa: i don't remember. jonathan: [indiscernible] is it normal to just go away and not remember? lisa: would you like to know anything else? tom: yeah, we are looking at guesstimates this morning on the jobs or boards, and i'm looking at the guesstimate of which greek island we -- lisa: let's move on. jonathan: thank you. lisa: thank you. jonathan: i will enjoy next week. we all will. tom: maybe i should stay around for 8:30. jonathan: we might get remote from lisa in the field. the global head of ray strategy joins us now. priya, i know you are on the same page, yields and the behavior in how markets are responding to economic data, yesterday, and nice case study.
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what explains it? >> i think it is the market pricing in a more hawkish reaction function. if you look at long end inflation expectations, they have declined. the market took the terminal right of the hiking cycle and lowered it. we are pricing in 2% at the end of the cycle in march and it is less that -- less then 1.5%. i think the market is telling you the fed will be forced into hiking for some reason, her and perhaps inflation, and the economy cannot handle it. -- reason, perhaps inflation, and the economy cannot handle it. that is why the economy cycle could be cut short and slowing growth going forward. i think this is a misinterpretation. i think there was a lot of confusion and huge market reaction on the back of that meeting. i do not think it was a change reaction function, i think it was an acknowledgment of the upside risks. i think the markets are running with a more hawkish reaction function and perhaps the fed's commitment to the approach is weaker. tom: does this jobs report
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adjust the taper talk or adjust the guesstimates of what we will see at jackson hold? priya: i think both. they are sort of link, because we know that the fed has sort of opened the door. they are at least talking about tapering, so i would argue every data point now is going to be a market event. they flipped the market on notice. if you get a really strong number, if we see high wages, i think the market will say ok, maybe jackson hold, the fed might signal tapering sooner. signaling and tapering in the first hike our links. some fed officials think it's a couple months. others think it is a year out. we do not know, and that is why i think the -- think if the tapering timeframe is sooner, i think the timing and pace good increase. it could be another flattening reaction, which could be bizarre if the data is good.
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we really need to see how the fed pushes back. they want to see the supply chain disruptions. even in the labor market, i would argue there's a lot of friction. they want to wait until december until they take a victory lap. lisa: so to take the flip side, if it is a disappointment on the number, you concealed curves steepening? priya: i do think so, yeah. i think the front-end will push out the timing of the first hike to potentially early 2023, and the long end, maybe the reflation trade comes back. it seems counterintuitive, but i would say price action in the last couple weeks is symptomatic of reaction function ship, not economic data, which is why we get weird reactions to economic data. i think the weaker number is the front-end a little more and the long end, the risk and rise. jonathan: just reiterate your year-end on the tenure. what is it -- 10 year. what is it?
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priya: it's a long way from hiking. our hiking goal is much further out. i think the bar to hike for the fed is much higher. they want an inclusive recovery, inflation to persistently or sustain based on the 2% overshoot. the tapering bar is not that high. the reason i have this higher rates in the long end is this idea the fed would taper. we have a ton of treasury supply we have to take down, so to attract the buyer, both will need to change. jonathan: your yield on tens, 144 year-end -- 1.44, year-end the forecast. tom: can you imagine getting a year at 1.99? no one's expecting that. jonathan: five basis points away now. tom: moving that way as well. jonathan: i mentioned the imf and they offered a timeline for the federal reserve.
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lisa: i did not understand this. i wonder if they are trying to get the u.s. to move first to give some sort of leeway to other central banks around the world to start raising rates. for them to say you should raise rates by the end of 2022 and probably taper soon, when is there a precedent for the imf giving the federal reserve recommendations on policy? jonathan: i remember a certain president lagarde. do you remember the news conference where madame lagarde said about not doing too much too soon and try to push back? tom: there was a tantrum. that is the big fear, to repeat what we saw couple years ago. everyone is managing the message. you will see that with the secretary of morning. jonathan: 1.45 on payrolls. we will catch up with a labor secretary following the payrolls report. the number is out at 8:30. tom: maria tadeo killing it with research. she is also -- has also reviewed
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things. jonathan: so we have taken three islands off of the list? tom: we have. thank you to maria tadeo. jonathan: we might find out by the end of the show where lisa is going on vacation. lisa: like a game show, sounds fun. tom: all-time highs in the equity market, payrolls friday. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, the opec-plus alliance has fallen into bitter inciting. a key member, the united arab emirates, blocked a deal at the last moment, forcing the cartel and allies to postpone a meeting until today. it is passing out on whether there will be an agreement on production could ease a surging oil prices. economists surveyed that u.s. payrolls rose by 730,000 in june, and recent forecast have
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been much higher than the actual number. a variety of issues are keeping people from returning to the workforce, including enhanced unappointed benefits, childcare responsibilities, and house care services. the jobs report is out at 8:30 and "new york times". a group of republican senators one president joe biden to and the trade war initiated by donald trump. seven lawmakers were to the president asking him to revoke a tariff -- revoke tariffs and other barriers imposed on china and european allies. they referred to a trade war as self-inflicted harm. after five years of tensions over brexit, british prime minister joy response and -- boris johnson is delaying on angela merkel's last visit to the u.k. as chancellor. she will visit johnson at his country retreat and the queen at windsor castle. she will also have the very rare opportunity to address the british cabinet. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg
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quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans, this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> of course the latent recovery faces uncertainty also due to
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the spread of virus mutations. in the current phase of the pandemic, our concerns of financial stability are shifting from liquidity risk in the nonfinancial corporate sector to balance sheet vulnerabilities in the very same sector. jonathan: the ecb president there on the situation in european markets. from new york city this morning, good morning. i'm jonathan ferro. equity futures, 43.14, around about .1 percent of straight gains on the s&p 500. it has been all-time high through all-time high. your payrolls report, going into the yields grinding lower, down a basis .1 .4 fort hood four -- 1.4424. earlier this week, i think it was you that sent me the research, tom, potentially over
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envisioning a 1.1 zero into 2023 with a dominant factor being short-term rates in america. what happens there will drive the u.s. dollar. tom: some of the mistry to see with the dollar move is off of a a lot of research will be written and we will bring you through that through the morning and onto the real heel this afternoon. joining us is in a claim spot particularly on a july morning where any moment you could be drowned out by the lawnmowers of the white house. they were on the lawn, the journalists ruined the lawn and then they put gravel down and called it pebble beach. joining us on the asphalt commonly called stonehenge, our next guest joins us. july 4 is always hugely symbolic for senators and representatives. they go home, kiss babies, etc.
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what's their constituents? >> i think the biggest -- one of the biggest worries is twofold, one is jobs, given we will have the jobs report today, are enough people getting back into the labor force? some states are already taking away some of the supplemental unemployment benefits because of that. some shades and progressives are worried about childcare. especially women on the sidelines of this job recovery because they cannot get the job care. and second, there was a covid briefing and the cdc is incredibly more worried about the delta variant that started from india. the southwest and midwest, that is a key concern for a lot of counties that do not have the vaccine. tom: i'm so glad you bring this up because this is front and center. we talked to a representative at job, -- john hopkins. this is a real deal for los angeles this fourth of july weekend. annmarie: it certainly is. i was in the united kingdom
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where the delta variant -- of course i was, and the delta variant is the main driver of all of the uptick of cases. they are a little bit longer in rolling out the vaccines than the united states, they have a longer lapsed time between the first and second jab. if you have a county not vaccinated, the delta variant spreads more quickly. they say some states it is already the leading variant. lisa: what is president biden's message to americans, especially as he tries to highlight the progress the united states has made with vaccination but also the uneven progress in specific places? annmarie: i think he will have to really walk this fine line. for the last week, we have seen a lot of press releases from the white house touting economic growth and recovery. they even put out a "how to have a cheaper fourth of july" their take on it is transitory.
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they want to make sure people are looking for jobs. are they looking for jobs or just accepting the unappointed benefits? and two, get vaccinated. what could derail the economic recovery, some would say and question is potentially this delta variant. lisa: you talk about jobs in the spin after the jobs report comes out. you point to the unemployment benefits. what is the democratic line on these? annmarie: democratic line is that they want to keep these enhanced on employment benefits. many progressives especially speak to the fact there are number of people who have not been able, because of the pandemic, to get back into the workforce. until they are able to get efficient childcare, schools reopened, and they are able to get a job with wages to keep up with the pace of the country and inflation at the moment. so there take as you keep them until september. definitely gop ones are doing away.
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tom: we don't have john for politics. we have to get a briefing. you are closer to greece than any of us. on the island of vos in the making of whose oh, including you nazi -- is it the kind of island lisa should go to? annmarie: i have not been there. i have been to a number of greek islands. my daybreak anchor in london is currently in mykonos. you have to have one night at namos. jonathan: one night at namos. if there is one person in our staff that knows where to take a night out, i think it probably is annmarie. annmarie: too much information. [laughter] tom: what we want everyone to notice, and for those on radio this is serious, people have
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these romantic lives. they have been to every greek islands, lisa needs a break and this will be great. what do why do? i'm going to three guys this morning for a quick breakfast. jonathan: you're not taking a break? tom: no. i have to read all weekend. jonathan: annmarie, i know you have to run. lisa: she's never coming back. [laughter] jonathan: we are trying to work out where lisa is going on vacation. lisa: guys. tom: i say eos and i thought it was apple ios. ?" ?" are you really not going anywhere -- jonathan: are you really not going anywhere? you're so old-school, take some time off. tom: seriously, the cfo of the trump organization and reporting on his important indictments, he said he never takes vacation. i am embarrassed by that. it is a culture, and i'm not proud of it.
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it is a uniquely american idiocy. jonathan: have we done something to address it over the last 12 months? tom: i think so. jonathan: have we made the adjustment finally? tom: i have not, but i agree there will be a reassessment. jonathan: i don't think we need to. lisa: yes. and i think people are aware of the need with the lack of divide with people working from home. i don't know people will be working from home more. does that mean an extra 40 minutes on average of work? tom: bloomberg has done great work on this. there's a serious mental health crisis coming out of this natural disaster. jonathan: without a doubt, absolutely. tom: we are making jokes about it, but this is serious. jonathan: i catch up with megan greene a little later. she is doing work on that. she is trying to talk about whether it is holding back this labor market as well. lisa: particularly among kids and people entering the labor force now. if you think about kids out of school and not able to socialize, it has been a difficult period.
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jonathan: coming out, wells fargo corporate investment bank senior economist. from new york this morning, payrolls are one hour five minutes away. heard on radio and seen on tv, this is "bloomberg surveillance". ♪
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jonathan: this show was so much better in the commercial break. if only the mike's were hot. live on tv and radio, here is the price action. 4315 on the s&p 500, advancing about four points after six straight days of gains. yesterday's gains were an all-time high. a cyclical high for this market. energy had a nice pickup in crude. we will get to the bond market, twos, tens, and 30's. just to give you a flavor of where things stand. yields come in a better basis points, 1.44 on tense. yields in again by two basis points just above 2%. tom: this is a sensitive issue, well understood, in our agreements with bloomberg lp. john and i -- jon and i are not
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allowed to be on the same planes. there were a couple situations, and for good reason, and i think we have to begin to consider that policy for miss abramowitz and miss lines. jonathan: i was going to get there. just wait, tom. the comedy is to build up and then gets to the punchline. [laughter] tom: i thought you already went through it. jonathan: i haven't finished yet. i want to talk about the shape of the curve as well. how market responds to the data is the other part of the story. the most important part of the story, two tens, a break at 118, 117 94, the flatter curve. tom: even in the last hour. jonathan: what is driving this? we talked about a briefing with priya misra. on the one side, you can see a market is on one side with the views of the federal reserve and the high rate of inflation will be transitory. therefore, it should be flatter and breakevens off of the highs
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from may and all that good stuff. the other explanation is the market is starting to believe the question, the flexible average inflation target of the federal reserve, the reaction function they have worked on over the last year, the belief that with an inflationary read on growth like the ism yesterday , there is a belief the fed steps into early and chokes things off. priya misra on a little bit earlier making that point. she things it is the wrong way to go. that is why she is looking for a steeper curve and tends out to two by year end. tom: i will go with deutsche bank in the two part yield market they see and economy they see, which is a short-term dimon nuke -- short-term dynamic. they are also looking at the long-term dimon m -- long-term dynamic. jonathan: should we get there, who would have thought that lisa would go degrees, that katie would go degrees and they would
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be on the same plane? the same flights. tom: it is against surveillance policies, too much risk there. jonathan: the only thing we know so far this morning is lisa is not going to greece and kaylee is not going to greece. that's what we know. tom: that's all we know. lisa: but they are on the same flight -- jonathan: but there on the same flight. you will not ask which airline. >> lisa and i will have a great time at the airport bar later on tonight, but forget about commercial flight, let's talk about spaceflights. richard branson is going up in space on july 11, nine days before jeff bezos. he's beating him to the punch. as a result, space ticker shares are up by 28% in early hours. lisa and i are allowed to go degrees because we are vaccinated americans. it's not necessarily the reverse. johnson & johnson saying there vaccine protects you against the delta variant. that stock is higher today. others are not having success
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with their vaccine. i want to point to gene editing, a really nice boost on wednesday. today, fractionally higher, up about .4%. it has also been a busy week for ipo's. i wanted to check on how some of the newly public and listed stocks are doing. one of them is pop-culture group. this is a chinese hip-hop producer. i know hip-hop is your absolute favorite music genre. this is an insane story. six dollars per share, spiked 405 percent in its debut and double again yesterday. this morning, it is trading at $67 per share. you do have another chinese listed company listed here in the u.s., and it actually did not have a great debut. today, they are slightly lower. krispy kreme doughnuts, i have been outed on television this week as someone who has never had a doughnut.
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apparently that is weighing on the minds of krispy kreme investors because it's lower this morning. tom: there's a real legacy on krispy kreme within wall street. the first time they came around, it was hugely anticipated. if you had a hedge fund, they would offer you to short krispy kreme and get to the stock to do that. this is a whole new iteration this time around. jon and i are like, can i carrier suitcases? >> no way. tom: moving forward here, economics, terror house, wells fargo here on what we would see today with jobs report. -- sarah house, wells fargo here on what we would see today with jobs. >> they will definitely be looking at the leisure and hospitality sector since that is where you still have the biggest deficit between where we were back in february of 2020 and
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where we are today. of course that is the area with the biggest upside coming from reopening, the fact people are again traveling again. even domestic kelly -- domestically here. as we look at the breakdown of what we are seeing, we will pay close attention to the good side of the economy too. we had a different construction last month. how much of that is because of supply issues there? so there is getting materials, so that i think there will be a lot to go through in terms of whether we see these supply constraints ease and whether workers are coming back, how much is it skills mismatch or just presentation? tom: have you tweaked your payrolls number and what is the direction of the adjustment? sarah: we are looking for a gain of 750,000 new jobs. that would suggest the momentum. we do not tweak after yesterday's ism or the information wednesday, but we see signs the demand improved
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further over the past month. you can see it with the continuation of job openings, the hiring plans numbers that came out for june from the survey yesterday. importantly, we are also seeing small signs of constraints beginning to ease. less fears about getting covid. we have seen a drop in continuing claims, suggesting more people might be moving back to work as well. we think together that stronger demand and ease of can -- ease of supply constraint gives us upward momentum. jonathan: earlier this year, i thing you had a quote of the moment when you said no one said reopening would be cheap. that was your line. are you surprised by how the data has come in the? sarah: i think it has been pretty surprising -- in though? sarah: i think it has been surprising in terms of the wage numbers. we have seen big numbers and are we earnings over the past few months. as we see more jobs added in the low-wage sectors, and really how
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much employers are increasing pay. yes, we are seeing lots of signing bonuses but the average are we earning numbers reflects the hourly pay. this is not just a one time pass off. these are going to be a permanently higher level of wages. it remains to be seen on the pace of growth going forward, but we have had to see businesses pony up for labor, and that is reflected in pretty max gains. all the low-key sectors, workers have been hesitant to come back to them. lisa: earlier today, sara was talking about the participation rate and how it has not come back to where it was and remains far behind, i think more than 7 million americans are still out of work. one will we have a clear sense of how much of this is permanent in nature versus some of these other concerns, whether it is childcare, covid, or perhaps taking advantage of enhanced
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unemployment benefits? sarah: i think we will have to wait for the fall to see that, to see how much of this is a timing mismatch where businesses have been ready to reopen faster than workers have been ready to come back. whether that is because we have been told to stay away from other people for the past 15 months or it is these childcare issues with school having been remote last year and needing to get full-time in-person to the fall, how much of it is perhaps the enhanced unemployment insurance. i think it will take probably until october, maybe november after you get the october jobs report that we will get a better sense of how much of that is this timing issue, that it takes timing to rehire and line up your childcare, to find the new job where maybe you also want more of a career, so workers are thinking what they want versus how much of this is maybe some longer-term damage around to the
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labor supply, retirement, different views of family considerations and how the degree to which parents come back. tom: the focus this morning is the greek islands. the distance between two of them is 500 miles. i know you're an expert on kor fu. did you find it to be equivalent to crete? sarah: having never been to crete, i cannot compare them. but i will be having to get some researched on myself. lisa reserves it -- deserves it. lisa: she's not going there either. if you tuned in from outside of america, i think you might have guessed there's a long weekend coming up. tom, we've got to get the payrolls first. tom: we do. we are an hour away from a really important report. i will look at wage dynamics because i'm focus on the negative real wage. also, i will take the three month moving average after those important revisions. jonathan: sarah house says wait
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until the payroll report to figure this out. lisa: but the fed can't wait. at a certain point, they have to start tapering or give indication. otherwise, markets will predict what they do for them and they will have to disrupt the markets if they want to go against it. right now, the market is implying they will make a policy ever and if they wait too long, they could get worried about runaway inflation. jonathan: so that is the side of the argument you have come out on? there are two options we have been discussing, either some people do think that, the fed will come in early and choke off growth, or the market is well aligned with what the fed is suggesting. lisa: i would put out there perhaps the fed will go with what the market wants, because that is what it has done in the past. jonathan: lisa abramowicz, don king, jonathan ferro, counting you down to payrolls. 720,000 it's your estimate. we stack up as follows, the scores look like this. the s&p 500 advancing for points, almost up one point sent
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-- .1%. from new york city, up a little later, 8:30 eastern time after the jobs report jobs, -- drops, we catch up with the portfolio manager in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> with the first word news, i am leigh-ann gerrans. opec and allies are trying to resolve a dispute blocking measures to ease oil prices. the potential deal to increase production fell apart yesterday. the united arab emirates is at odds with the cartel leaders, saudi arabia, and russia. if efforts fail today, the world may not get the extra oil supplies it was expecting. johnson & johnson have said it's single shot coronavirus vaccine neutralizes the delta variance.
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the vaccine is also said to provide durable protection against infection more broadly. it is expected -- delta is expected to become the dominant strain in the coming weeks in the u.s.. richard branson plans to be jeff bezos into space. he will fry -- fly on july 11 along with five others. that is nine days before jeff bezos plans a trip to space aboard a rocket made by his company, blue origin. he and his crew will be joined by an 82-year-old, one of the first women to trade -- train for spaceflight but never made it to a mission. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. ♪ countries. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> two markets lagging are the
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u.k. and ireland, and there are still travis -- still covid restrictions, travel restrictions in place and people are reacting to the delta variance, which has seen enough spike in cases but nothing for hospitalizations or mobility. jonathan: from new york city this morning, good morning, alongside tom keene, lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. counting you down to the payrolls report in 42 minutes. equity futures up for. a six-day winning streak into friday, all-time highs on the s&p 500. i want to slice up this market to little bit. cross asset yields down to basis points, and the grind lower continues. -- two basis points, and the grind lower continues. some news in the last five minutes i want to pick up on, get to didi in the premarket. this is a ride-hailing market out of china. it closed its u.s. trading debut a couple days ago, raised $4.4
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billion, then china launched a cybersecurity review of the company. they will halt registration of new users during the review. this is according to a statement from cyberspace administration of china. their stock in the premarket down in the premarket. tom: not just that, but i will suggest a weight on the tape. . things have softened up a little bit. i do not want to make a big deal or associate it directly with didi but you wonder if this is didi. tom: is this echo went -- jonathan: is this a coincidence that after listing stateside china has a big review? tom: there it is, it is a back-and-forth that we see also with russia. we have seen that recently as well. what we see is data on jobs report. what you have? >> we talk about the dividend
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aristocrats, a group of stocks, on both sides of the atlantic, that those over credit suisse is recommending. at the chart focuses on the u.s. piece of it. there's an s&p 500 dividend aristocrat index. if you get into that indicator, you raise your payouts every year for at least 25 years. we are talking about a real track record of rewarding shareholders. tom: you're an expert at this, david, and you won't to your own horn so i will do it for you. you have written books about this in article after article. has this changed because of the effort to buy back shares? david: they have shifted to some extent but some of the biggest technology companies, the ones with cash flow, they are not making payouts. think about googles or alphabets,, those companies. the shift is not as extreme as it could be. one thing that has shifted is the relationship between these aristocrats and the s&p 500 when it comes to dividends.
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you look at the aristocrat index, 2.3% does not sound like a lot but that is a full percentage point more than what you are getting on the s&p 500 these days. that is as the dividend yield comes down. tom: david wilson, we have to leave it there as we go to massachusetts. this year, a different boston pops, they travel to their hollow ground. there is no question the most historic summer place in america for classical music. romaine bostick is --, it was a final concert among other things, and you will grace his presence this weekend. romaine: i'm honored to be here. this is the summer home of the boston pops, their venue, tanglewood. on the stage behind me, in a couple days, we will have a real star-studded event. a legendary soul singer and a new breed of singer out there, jazz, standards and everything
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in between. they will be under the helm of keith lockhart, the conductor of the boston pops here. a big celebration of our nation's independence, but also, a real celebration of our reopening. this will be the first major event at tanglewood since the pandemic shut everything down. there's a lot of excitement here, a lot of people want to get out and want to be with their fellow americans and they really come out here and celebrate and have fun on sunday. lisa: that's exactly where i wanted to go, the reopening of america, the idea of the end of the pandemic. what kind of measures will be taken and recognize that the pandemic has not really gone away? romaine: there are still going to be some social distance measures in place here. total capacity will be allowed will be 9000 people both in the shed as well as on the lawn. off-camera here. that is less than what you would have at full capacity, so there will be a lot of precautions in place. we should point out we are sort
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of moving, at least hopefully, toward the end of the pandemic. the folks that run this place and a lot of the venues here in the boston area are eager that's, by the end of the summer and fall, a lot of these restrictions will be gone, hopefully by then. jonathan: we hope so. romaine, good to see you. a lot of work for you over the weekend. tune into the boston pops spectacular at 8:00 p.m. eastern time sunday. before your weekend starts, we have to deal with payrolls report in the united states of america. into that, we are looking for 720,000, that is her estimate into this number. tom: and revision is important. i will go to the most important chart. i won't show it because of radio but lisa showed yesterday, claims is not related. thursday claims is not related to what we will see today, but i'm sorry, it is a persistently constructive and optimistic chart. maybe that is what we see over
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the next 90 days. jonathan: direction of travel is important, and we need to see the persistence, that improvement, and get better and better from here. lisa: pace and composition are two really important characteristics. it is definitely the pace, how long we can keep this up, and the competition. how much momentum is there under the hood? how much of the job losses has been a result of some of the key areas of the economy like leisure going dark versus some real lagging effects and the rest of the areas and industries? jonathan: let's talk about something that has not improved over the last six months or so, the participation rate in america has not improved. therefore, the employment and population rate of america has not really improved either. two of the things we know, we know officials on this federal reserve are focused on driving policy. lisa: the key is, when do we know how much a scarring? how much is more permanent in nature versus a reopening effect
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like time with people staying out perhaps because of illness fears or because of their kids? these are unknowns at this point. we have to also emphasize this is a huge technological shift, underpinning this recent year, the idea of the move to the cloud, to remote work. how much does this shift the skills required for these individuals? jonathan: is it structural or cyclical? the answer to the question tells you how much the fed can do about it in the coming months and years. tom: i'm not really focused on structural or cyclical. i think there is so much noise on who can split the two apart -- noise, who could split the two apart? look at the imf numbers. i will go back to the immediate data and to me, the beginning of the earnings season is as important as this jobs report. lisa: this is the real key point, at what point is the fed not helping anything with their policy? to your point, how much is the structural and other kinds of remedies? that i think is a really
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important question. jonathan: the conversation for the next couple hours come on bloomberg tv and radio. we will catch up with the labor secretary a little later this morning following the jobs report. we do that around 9:30-9:45 eastern time. from new york and radio, thank you for choosing bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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>> we see a very high number of people quitting their jobs. we only see that when people feel confident about the market. >> i think consumers have money in their pockets and we will have a super holiday season. >> i think we are far enough along a lot of that scarring should begin to dissipate. >> clearly we are heading to an environment where they have to [indiscernible] >> i would argue every data point now is going to be a market event. we have put the market on notice. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance," tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone.


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