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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  June 11, 2021 11:00am-12:01pm EDT

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markets, the european close, with guy johnson and alix steel. guy: 30 minutes to close, what do you need to know a lot of europe? the europeans have arrived in cornwall with -- as well as the star power of president bynum. the british economy growing at the fastest pace since last summer but the next phase of reopening in question, how sustainable is the economic recovery area and the more transmissible delta variant is about 96% of new cases in the u.k.. one third of those requiring hospitalization and at least one dose of the vaccine. alyx: really nice weather come are you done blaming me for
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weather issues? guy: i think so. you haven't mentioned it so that's why it's improved. alyx: well played. here's what you're missing in the markets, not necessarily a lot. you have european stocks at record highs. this is the ftse 100 up at 6/10 of 1%. and we do have this worry that we won't see easing the lockdowns on monday but you did have the u.k. economy gathering momentum as the lockdowns actually eased. but the volume is not that exciting. this is not a huge catalyst. what we are seeing is a flattening but we are off of what we have seen in the session. we are down about 68 -- basis points. this is not doing so well for the financials. what's also interesting is having a stronger pound. this is down by 1/10 of 1%. this is different with the dollar making a solid rally. this is certainly higher, along
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with the ftse 100. a lot of this is what's happening with copper. this is still trading around 10,000 with the metal mining really outperforming. that helps the overall indices. it does feel kind of muted in some ways. abigail: it is very muted. this is what we are looking at today. we have a little trick here on this friday. then nasdaq 100 is up 1.3% on the week. we are really seeing a resurgence into the tech heavy index with money flowing out of the banking index. this is down about four basis owing, excuse me for percent on the week. you could see the 10 year yields down nine basis points. at the lows it was down 11 basis points. that's the most in a year. that's a big decline with the 10 year yield. helping is the valuation
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concerns. i wanted to take a look at bitcoin, not so long ago it was up 3%, now up fractionally. you do have these technology shares gaining. but when you throw the bonds and, maybe it's a bit mixed. guy: it's a lot of data this week. and coming up next week i'm looking for catalyst to get things moving. thank you. it's unlikely that the g7 will provide such a catalyst when it comes to the market but i think there are some interesting trends developing. all week long we have had the --, which is incredibly entertaining. you see the various leaders and how they interact together. what they look like and who they want to go talk to. who is left out and who is brought in and who wants to give
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who a hug. emmanuel macron is looking for a hug from joe biden. our guest is joining us now. i'm sure you've been all over this story. g7 is a big meeting and they have a life of their own. they go a bit off script. what do we pick up from the family photo? when we pick up for emmanuel macron making a beeline for joe biden. >> often these meetings are more about the optics than the substance. but there will be a real attempt at this g7 to have a message of unity, that the u.s. and europe are again scenting a coherent message to the rest of the world about global leadership. especially since this is the first time that many of these leaders have met in person. but we do see that family photo and the optics are quite interesting you did see justin trudeau attempting to keep a distance from the other leaders.
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left on his own quite a bit as a result. certainly the french president making a beeline to president biden. they put their arms around each other and had a close chat. we could not hear what they were saying but they certainly seem to be having a warm conversation. the overall feeling is that they are happy to see each other and have a more adult conversation, for a better phrase, after the trump administration. not expecting any fireworks or 10 trends. back to normal programming for the g7. alyx: normal programming. i like that. i swear it looks like the bachelor. i know you don't know that in the u.k., but it is exactly what it looks like. what is different, italy has to be taken seriously in a different way because mario draghi is leading the country. how does that play into the conversation? >> certainly the first part of the meeting is focused on the
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economic recovery from the pandemic and how countries can work together more collaboratively on that front. how they can ensure that money is flowing to less fortunate countries to help their own recovery. when mario draghi speaks, everybody gets quiet and listens given his experience with the crises. he's also been quick to pull italy out of a closer relationship with china and pulled italy back from that investment in trade relationships with china. that means italy is much more present in the conversation about taking a tougher line. alyx: thank you. for more challenges -- for more on the challenges, we want to bring in our next guest. what are you watching for when the leaders meet? >> i certainly enjoy the
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pictures. i think on the substance side, what i'm watching for is the vaccinations. what can these leaders agree on in terms of accelerating worldwide vaccination. it's fundamental for the economies of the g7 then not only the g7 economies themselves vaccinate, but that the rest of the world vaccinate so that this virus gets under control. i think they should really make some progress either on spending the necessary billions, the imf suggests it's about 50 billion to get the world vaccinated by the end of next year. that's not so much money. what's missing is just 16 billion. i think this should be one of the key outcomes of the g7. guy: to think europe can take some leadership here?
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i was talking to someone early on and he said that europe has exported some 350 million vaccines already. it's a huge number, but the topic that we are discussing here is one dominated by the united states and the pledges that president biden is making. how does europe get out in front and provide leadership? >> frankly, i think europe is providing massive leadership. not everyone has understood it, but europe is exporting some 300 million doses already. it has already exported so many doses while most of the other countries assembled have not exported much. so really europe is a major producer and its development by on tack one of the most successful vaccines.
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the u.k. has developed the other. we, as western countries, i think should really put together and show global leadership. because others like china and russia use vaccine exports mainly to force foreign policy goals. i think the goal for us as western powers is to really say this is an opportunity to relational leadership into the rest of the world that we care. alyx: the other part is how europe is going to attempt to lead on climate. once you get the world vaccinated, getting a green push globally could come from europe. what's going to be the push in the g7? what can we look for? >> absolutely. climate changes the other big topic. the european union has ambitious climate targets and the u.s.
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increasingly wants to move in that direction. if the u.s. and the e.u. agree and the u.k. also agrees it forms a very strong lock and i think the key is really the next 10 years. how quick is the decarbonization process in these countries in the next 10 years? if it's pretty fast, as is currently hoped for, then we need to work on some sort of an adjustment mechanism, meaning imports into the e.u. will be taxed unless they are as climate friendly as the domestic reduction to prevent carbon leakage, but also giving incentive to the rest of the world to d carbon eyes. -- d carbon -- decarbonize. guy: there's devin white been talk over lack of a carbon
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policy or price in the united states. i want to talk about what the relationship with china will look like read the u.s. is looking to take a robust stance towards china. that's one of the key objectives of bidens trip. looking at how has the recent shift -- looking at china, how has the recent shift in europe aligned europe united states we had it was only recently that we were talking about the idea that we would see a trade pact being signed between europe and china. >> i think there was a lot of and the e.u. want to do business with china. it's an important market and it's very active.
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we engage a lot. on the other hand, there are concerns about the economic model in china. but also about human rights abuses and many other topics and questions in the neighborhood of china. so how do you deal with that situation? i think the europeans and americans share the same concerns but we don't quite agree on what's the best strategy? i think angela merkel represents the strategy of being engaged with china but also raise concerns. i don't know yet exactly where biden will end on. i think they are still wondering what's the right approach to really push through the concerns and deliver some chain on the side of china -- change on the
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side of china. guy: and a potential systemic rival, tell us what that potential means and systemic means. maybe we can get some clarity as these events unroll. thank you. let's talk about the economic impacts of all of this. coming up we are talking about the vaccination program trying to vaccinate the world and what that means. our global chief economist is joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> what's gone wrong with this
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pandemic, or what is at risk of being a lasting scar is i think the inequalities may be entrenched. we need to make sure that as we recover we level up across our society and build back better. >> -- guy: prime minister boris johnson speaking about the need for vaccinations and the need globally to level up. we have our global chief economist joining us now. janet there's an expectation of the g7 summit will deliver a pledge to vaccinate 80% of the world with a hundred billion doses of the vaccine by the end of next year. and what we are going to see is an economic rebound. back to me about what impact vaccinating the rest of the world will have on your economic
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numbers. what impact does this have economically? >> we've seen what happens in different countries when the level of infection white -- is quite low. we do see a resurgence in demand. so we know it happens at the initial stage of the upturn. there are a few different countries with a few different approaches. some of the reasons why asia is suffering so badly from a pickup in cases is because they never really prioritized getting hold of the vaccine and rolling out the vax nation program -- the vaccination program. so they announcing restrictions. but also in the u.k. and in europe, even when we got to a stage of vaccinating a lot of the pop elation, we think we are on a one-way track towards a steady reopening and we are of course subject to renewed restrictions as soon as there is
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a resurgence of a new variant. but certainly what it means is that we want to get everyone vaccinated and more economies can open up. and when everybody is vaccinated we are at much less risk of the variants. so when the short-term it's an upside risk. alyx: it does seem to imply that maybe 2022 could have a longer sustained growth than many have been anticipating. the reddick is that 2021 will be amazing and then 2022 will see slowing growth is the multiplier comes down. could that change? could we see a longer growth cycle? >> we know that the initial reopening and rebound is going to be strong. we have much bigger stimulus programs in place, so the explosion of growth will be familiar.
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we know that for the beginning of the pandemic, productivity growth was very low. some countries were in an industrial recession. but we also know that the growth cycle will evolve. we had this explosion in demand for global industrial production. it's already back on the pre-pandemic trajectory but we know the service sector demand is extremely weak. even on the good side, and these bottlenecks. most of the should be resolved. even if you get certain sectors which shows some slowdowns coming. this is very variable by sector and geography. guy: let's talk about the reopening pace. we saw some strong data being delivered out of the u.k. economy but there are serious questions being asked about
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whether or not the next phase of reopening can happen. how fragile do you think the 2020 number one -- the 2021 numbers are going to look if we start to see a reemergence of the virus driven by new variants here in the u.k.. we definitely have the delta variant and it looks like europe is going to have a serious problem with that as well. janet: what we have seen in those countries with a significant reopening is almost what we saw last year. when the economy initially opened we removed the restrictions and you had a really strong activity, and even before the restrictions the pace of improvement slowed. this time, to some degree we are looking for something. even in the u.s. we think that the strong rates are going to be very strong but we are already looking for a slowdown to come in through q4 as this fades a
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bit and the pent-up demand fades. i think in the case of the u.k. and europe, the case of reopening has been more gradual. it doesn't seem likely given where we are with the vaccination program that this will go into restrictions like we saw last winter, when much of the economy went back in the lockdown. you can -- you don't continue with one-way traffic reopening. alyx: which country in europe has the best upside potential? where we underpriced in terms of the growth potential? janet: i think in terms of the forecast, it's impossible to make. even looking at the u.k. gdp figures, the track and trace and vaccinations were a drive on growth in april. the numbers are all over the place.
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in terms of the pace of improvement relative to the last year lows, it has to be germany. it already had a more mild recession. the hard data has not been as strong as the survey data. but it should be more into the next phase of the growth cycle. that's the capex cycle. this is the one area of investment that strengthens in manufacturing. we should see more on the capital spending side it probably still looks like germany, even if the forecast for the day is actually stronger . in level terms, germany is still the best. alyx: thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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alyx: time for the business
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flash. some of the biggest -->> it's time for the is the/. the global economy is coming from -- is recovering. this preble effect being felt from home buildings to appliance makers. demand is so friendly so -- and some mills have stopped taking orders from customers. danish investors and analysts been the morning trying to figure out why a tiny biotechnology company suddenly saw -- sort almost 1400%. they have no idea why the american depositary surged overnight. the company warning investors against being sucked into the frenzy that the latest business flash. alyx: i love the story, when you have the company saying i don't know, don't buy the stock. that's pretty funny. this chart illustrates that. this is the adr, jumped 1400% overnight.
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this is the trading over in denmark. we are obviously off the highs, but that frenzy, there's no other excellent nation. investigate -- investors are waiting for information on a new drug. but otherwise they have nothing. how are they finding these? guy: and if you are management, what do you do? you have a huge opportunity, how quickly can you bit and take advantage of the situation. the story that we have been covering, certainly we will cover a lot more. i think boris johnson, this is looking at this story. we spoke to michael o'leary. that's coming out, this is bloomberg. ♪
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alix: happy friday.
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you made it. it is the end of trading in europe. it appears we have settled out. it was a risk on day in europe. global stocks at records. the stoxx 600 at a record as well. the ftse up a solid .7%. more of a mining story. also better growth coming out of the u.k. in april as some lockdown restrictions were eased. the dax one of the outperformers along with the cac's -- along with the cac 40. germany is not going to extendable lockdown. they made that call and that helping the optimism. we will get to the impact on the u.k. as they try something different. let's get to some sectors to show what outperformed. this is five-day. basic resources and auto parts. reflation narrative is outperforming. overall, travel and leisure is the second-best performing sector. the story in europe is you do have these passports that do not
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require quarantine. definitely helping the travel and leisure sector. you also have technology higher is rates come down and you financials, banks, not doing particular well as you have the yield curve with people flatten or. the long end curve continues to come down. let's talk about what we saw in individual equities. this tells the story. the first thing is the basic resource sector helping lead the ftse 100 despite worries about continuing lockdown restrictions . you can see that played out in glencore. ironwork also getting a bit. oil getting a bid. gas is quite interesting. not a big mover right now but today we will start pre-commissioning works on filling the first pipeline for nord stream 2. that will be a gas story. in mid july, angela merkel will be visiting president biden to talk about the relationship
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between germany and the u.s. and tighten that connection. you know that is a nord stream 2 story at the end of the day. weatherspoon is a pup company. -- a pub company. guy probably knows them quite well. that stock is unchanged. we will hear from boris johnson whether he will ease the lockdown or extent restrictions, it seems like he is leaning towards the latter. iag up, also confusing. british airways saying they will have to furlough some workers because the u.k. is not really allowing people to travel outside the country. it does feel more of an optimistic trade. i wonder what we will see on monday if we come in. boris johnson is much more negative about any further reopening. guy: i think a lot of people have price that in.
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the expectation, judging by what the science is saying in the u.k. is that reopening will be pushed back. i do not think that will have a positive impact on the travel stocks. they have been very volatile this week. run at the top or run at the bottom of the leaderboard based on the way we are seeing trade developing. you are basically trading the tape at the moment in terms of what the politicians are saying. the co's are not happy about this. we spoke with easyjet yesterday, i spoke to iag earlier in the week. michael o'leary, he is the most outspoken. you and i talked to him earlier on and tried to get his take on what will happen to this industry if the prime minister decides not to further reopen the economy later this month. michael: because of the mismanagement of this recovery by the johnson government,
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despite no increase in case numbers in portugal and an increase in vaccinations they took portugal off the green list. malta, which should be on the green list, which has higher vaccinations than the u.k. -- the traffic light system is a shambles. it is more mismanagement by the johnson were government -- by the johnson government. most european governments are removing the restrictions because they have to. there is going to be a small rise in case numbers as we remove those afflictions, but there will not be an increase in hospitalizations and comorbidity. we lucked out to protect the health variants. we have now blake -- we've an outbreak of flu every winter. we do not lockdown our economies. the johnson policy is to stick
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to the june 21, and worst maybe delay that until the end of june. by the time the u.k.'s holiday season starts, this travel restrictions, these travel restrictions are being applied to vaccinated populations. the travel restrictions should be removed if you're vaccinated and the vast majority of the european population will be vaccinated. guy: michael o'leary, the ceo of ryanair. in some ways, michael o'leary is a counter indicator. the more agitated he gets, in impression you can take from that that he is not going to get what he wants. he has been highly critical of the british government and the irish government, but maybe that is a reflection of reality. i wonder if the delta variant becomes more dominant on the continent we could see similar variant -- similar lockdowns as well. alix: what makes success?
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he points out lockdowns was not to overwhelm the health care system, it was not to eradicate covid. you want to have enough beds if people go to the hospital. what does victory look like? the messaging is completely mixed. guy: i still do not think we understand that. this concern governments have is you are seeing every iteration of this virus, every new variant turning out to be a little more difficult to manage than the last. as a result of which, as we continue to go through the process, do you want to expose your population to travel? is that what you want to do right now or you want to try to build on the gains you've made thus far? alix: still have zero desire to get on a plane, which is so weird for me. i like the birds chirping. it makes me want to go to a beach, which makes me think of
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planes. maybe i am getting there. something we are seeing in the market, inflation pressures to hike rates for a third time. dollar ruble up about .1%. downside quite limited when it comes to the ruble. we will break that down and look ahead to president biden's summit next week. sophia don't have will be joining us -- sofya donet will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is bloomberg markets -- the european close. coming up, bank of chile governor. this is bloomberg. alix: dollar ruble inching its way higher. the bank of russia raising rates
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saying more hikes are needed to make the third hike happened today. bloomberg's gregory weiss heads coverage out of moscow. do we feel like rate hikes are coming fast and furious? gregory: there was a bloody -- there was a pretty clear message from the central bank governor today. [indiscernible] what i think true people's attention was the toughness of the rhetoric going forward. she set a hike at the next meeting in july is very likely that there may be more after that. she even explained they considered raising rates by a full point as to today's meeting, which was a big supplies -- a big surprise, would have been the biggest hike since 2014. guy: we will leave it there. thanks for setting it up. bloomberg's gregory white setting us up. more on russia's economic challenges.
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sofya donets, renaissance capital russia and cis economist joining us now. thank you for joining us. how high do you think we are going to have to see rates going in russia? 6% is the current inflation rate . what you think the governor will have to do. how high do we go? sofya: the key concern is where inflation will be in two or three months. our base case is that rates will stop at 6.0, but for sure the rates will be exceeding these rates, now increasing. the dynamic population is now the $1 billion question.
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[indiscernible] month on month or week on week measures. alix: what will be the triple down to other central banks within the region. russia is one of the more aggressive ones and normalizing policy the fastest. sofya: i will say central bank of russia and the central bank of ukraine are central banks who hike rates. overall, the central bank in the region looks hawkish. we have some central banks that remain hawkish, starting from 2020. kazakhstan or georgia. i believe most central banks will see they are close to neutral in 2022 and still in that side of the market where the inflation pressure is more or less of a temporary nature. interest rate should go to neutral. guy: we are starting to see case
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counts climbing quite sharply in russia. what impact do you think that will have on decision-making? sofya: in any case, the dynamics is not in focus in russia, even as the rates of the re-imposition of lockdowns is negligible given what kind of russia reaction the government chooses in a wave of the virus. alix: i would love to get your perspective on the risk proposition heading into next week with president biden and president putin meeting. is there any risk in the market? what would happen that could wind up hurting the investment these us for russia, hurting growth. sofya: i think the summit itself was positive news for the market. the best case would be if the president would meet and discuss and say goodbye.
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markets would be extremely happy with that. if the agenda of the summit is more focused on cooperation in areas like the green agenda or energy, then i think the market will be ok. clearly there are some risks of think of surprises if the president will be more focused on redline come on ukraine and nato, on something like this. guy: let's talk about that risk. the message that seems to be coming from cornwall from the g7 is that europe and the united states want to take a tougher line on russia. what is your expectation of what that will coordinated approach might mean for vladimir putin and russia? sofya: i think if we are talking about eu, the base risk is
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[indiscernible] relations with the eu are not that at risk. for now i think the eu will prove to be a relatively reasonable on the use of sanctions. i am not that optimistic to expect any tangible easing in the relations of russia with the u.s. and the eu given that the dynastic rhetoric, political sense in russia remains on tough to -- i would not expect any room for easing in the coming months. alix: thank you so much. sofya donets, thank you very much. let's get with the g7.
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president biden and boris johnson leaving their meeting. they will be having dinner later with the queen. meantime will discuss what else is on the agenda with someone who knows president biden very well, max baucus, forever u.s. -- former u.s. ambassador to china will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> first we do not paper over the human rights in china and the situation on the situation in hong kong. we took very clear decisions against china because of this. we think we need to engage with china on global topics. covid-19, health.
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these are topics for which a dialogue is useful, china included. guy: that was my interview earlier today with charles michel, the european council president. joining us is max baucus, former u.s. ambassador to china. he was also a u.s. senator from montana for three decades. thank you for your time. one of the themes that certainly seems to be coming out of this g7 is that president biden is looking to form a group of countries, a group of democracies that will push back on totalitarian regimes, china, russia are the ones often talked about. how coordinated to think -- you think the eu and the united states will be on this? certainly -- amb. baucus:
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certainly more coordinated than the case under the previous u.s. president. all countries will look at their own bottom line. each country cares about its own interest more than anything else. cooperation will be polite and cordial. all leaders will want to work together. there are a lot of subjects to work together on. covid, that is number one. everybody wants to help solve that. second is the climate. that is very much in the interest of all the countries. and then china. china is difficult to resolve because european countries have their own separate interests with china. they will talk about it. alix: what was success when it comes to dealing with china look like -- what would success when it comes to dealing with china look like? amb. baucus: success is a combination between g7 and china . the u.s./china relationship is
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still volatile. we will not call a freefall, we have not reached bottom yet. at most it is driven by national security, and it is also driven by domestic politics of the u.s.. it is easy for member of congress to be critical of china to help his reelection. also because in many regards we are very concerned about backdoor spying by chinese surveillance systems and so forth. it is very difficult to get a good relationship between the two countries, but we have to try. guy: let's talk about how much further to fall you think we have got. you say we have not hit rock bottom. how much further to go? how much worse do you think it could get? amb. baucus: taiwan is an issue. taiwan has become much more of a hot button.
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stronger pressures in the united states to strengthen ties with taiwan. that very much upsets china. it is in violation of the one china policy we have with china and taiwan. my hope is we do not go too far, but that is becoming more of an issue. add to that more efforts in the united states to cut back on technologies that might hinder u.s. independence. we do not want to rely too much on chinese technology. we are becoming a bit balkanized. some call it a decoupling. it is happening. major countries are facing the same pressures. alix: you know president biden extraordinarily well. i wonder what you think he can bring to this conversation to help move the relationship along between europe and the u.s. in
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order to form some kind of united front against china. what is the special skill set? amb. baucus: president biden's dna is to find solutions. he is very polite, is very accommodating, he smiles a lot. he wants to find some agreement, he wants you to like him, not just personally but on substance. he also cares more about values than donald trump. human rights is much more important to him. it was not very important to donald trump. human rights and democratic values at western liberal values are going to be very much a part of his conversation. part of his efforts to communicate with the other six leaders who have many of the same concerns and same values. he will push on that.
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guy: how important is it that the g7 steps up and delivers vaccines to the rest of the world? if the g7 does not do it, will china do it? amb. baucus: china will certainly try. early reports are that the chinese vaccines are ok, they are not nearly as good as the western vaccines like pfizer and moderna and johnson & johnson. very important that the g7 follow-up on president biden's proposal to send vaccines to developing countries for a lot of reasons. one, it is the right thing to do . otherwise we will have a greater imbalance, greater inequality between wealthier countries and less wealthy countries. it is a good counterbalance against china. china will try very hard to exercise influence as much as it can in countries through covid, through infrastructure, through
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standard settings. they will try. they have been very good at it. they have been very effective. alix: such a pleasure to talk to you, ambassador. ambassador max baucus, former senator. thank you for joining us. looking forward to how this plays out. that wraps it up for guy and i. great to see one location. the view was gorgeous. i hope you get a break and it does not rain. i am giving you the gift of nice weather. coming up, former u.s. ambassador to nato will be joining "balance of power" with david westin. there is much more of guy and myself. join the cable show on dav digital radio -- on dab digital radio. lots to talk about, including the u.k. maybe not using those lockdowns. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> from the world of politics -- >> the only place it becomes partisan is in washington, d.c.
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>> it turns out in real terms wages have been declining for each of the past five months. >> this is "balance of power" with david westin. ♪ david: from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york to our tv and radio audiences worldwide, welcome to "balance of power." we weaken -- we will begin today again in cornwall where the g7 has begun. we welcome our superstar, bloomberg's senior national political reporter jennifer jacobs. we have two days of summit meetings. give us a sense of what we should expect to see. jennifer: hi david. [indiscernible] nations in the world wrestle with how to vaccinate the population and crackdown on cyber climbs, deal together with


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