tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg June 10, 2021 2:00am-4:00am EDT
annmarie:annmarie: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am anna edwards london pit mark cudmore joins me in singapore to take us through all of the market actions this hour. the cash trading is less than one hour away. president biden arrives in the u.k. for the g7 leaders summit as the world's richest countries vowed to deliver one billion extra vaccine doses over the next year. we are in cornwall.
asian stocks climb with treasuries ahead of a crucial u.s. dpi print this afternoon which could provide clues on monetary policy. the ecb will plot the next phase of its pandemic bond buying program at today's meeting. we are also live in frankfurt. a very warm welcome to the program. welcome to the european market open. 7:00 in london. good morning. what are the markets saying to you? mark: it is all about bonds. over the last few days, it's not so much what happened in the asia session but the last couple of days has seen this incredible surge in bond prices. it has generally supported for their assets. the slight risk-on tone but traders are staying mostly on the sidelines as we await this much-anticipated u.s. cpi print later on today. anna: that is certainly going to be a focus for us. the start of cash equity trading here in europe. a look at where we are
positioned. we are waiting for a lot of things to fall in place. a busy end for the week when it comes to the geopolitics. euro stoxx 50 futures, ftse, and dax looking flat to positive. a little bit more upside. yesterday's session, the u.s. futures. yesterday saw a mixed performance in europe. we are a little more negative and today, we see a little more negativity and futures at the margin over in the u.s., and pretty flat as we wait for a number of development to come through more solidly so we will certainly focus on what is going on in cornwall at the g7 and on the ration number area what stands out to you in the gmm? rosalind: -- mark: it is that bond story, particularly australian bonds where we have seeing the 10 year yields. treasuries again are still very big, even in asia. the yields have fallen 1.5 basis
points again in the asia morning so this is really interesting given we are expected to see the highest inflation print in many years today and the whisper is that the risk of a miss is likely to be topside. the others seem to draw attention to is because yields are coming lower, stocks are generally doing well. can see on the equities column on the left of your screen, a straight column of green boxes. no massive moves, but generally, it is risk on with a positive day in asia. anna: it is a tv cliche to say that all eyes are on anything. all eyes cannot be on the g7 and the inflation that the u.s. and these be, but we will be watching all of those things of course. let me start with that inflation story out of the united states because it is interesting. to know that we have the inflation print coming and to think about how big of a movement we have seen in bond markets. the yield below 1.5%. is that telling us that the market is not as worried about
inflation as we thought it was because it does not think inflation will be that high or persistent or is it saying the fed does not worry much about inflation because the fed is concentrating on the jobs market? mark: absolutely the latter. i don't think anyone has changed their inflation outlook. judging from the sample files of the guests we have had in recent weeks, people have not really changed their view but more people are leaning towards the inflation scare will be even bigger than we saw in the short-term and that is the general theme, that inflation numbers have been surprising to the topside. i don't think that threat has gone away. it is just that we will not know the decision for some period of time so many people pushed back when we might get that reaction in the bond market and because they are convinced the fed will look to the inflation scare for now at least and that means everyone is going yields might have to have a real shock higher move at some point later on this year but not yet. i'm surprised people are so
complacent about this given the inflation print, given the fed meeting next week. to me, the risk-reward is for yields to move much higher from here and they cannot go much lower but then again, i did say that when we were 10 basis points higher, so i am in the wrong. anna: these markets move and we track them. tell me about the mood music in the markets. we are heading into the g7. plenty of geopolitical topics from vaccine rollout to the relationship with russia but it's interesting to think about the relationship between the u.s. and china, the world's largest economies, and certainly at the margins, some of the movements to be positive and i wonder how that is playing into the market psyche. i'm thinking about social media apps and the united dates and commerce secretaries talking to each other. mark: the announcement that came earlier in the asia session about the call and the positive developments today really kind of gave that extra boost to
equity markets this morning, that risk-on mood, and that was interesting because some of the previous news this week has been a little bit more tense about expanding the list of companies that might be investigated for potential dan or some other restrictions or measures in the u.s., so it is a little bit hard to know how it is going to play out next week. we have a nato meeting, we have the e.u. summit. there's desire for a coordinated response to the chinese government policy on a variety of trade and market issues, and i wonder whether these meetings in the coming days might present that so with that in mind, all these important, high-level meetings in the coming days, it is good to see the latest move is showing a conciliatory tone, a positive tone, and that is a positive sign for stockmarkets. anna: we are going to have interesting conversations about all of these things and we are going to be speaking about the ecb and we have not talked about
that just yet. it might get overshadowed in the short-term by some of the other news flow coming out as fast today. what is your thinking about the ecb as we head into this meeting? rosalind: i am not -- mark: i am not thinking about it too much. i think it will be overshadowed by many other things out there. we know that ecb is going to say more dovish. it will be very exciting if they surprise me on the rest of the market but i just don't many people are hanging on on tenterhooks for what the ecb will say today. we will have to wait for the press conference, and of course, all the words will be parsed and maybe there will be some interpretation that surprises but i think the big actions will come later on today when we get the u.s. inflation print, not with the ecb meeting. anna: we are going to have some conversations and we will be speaking to our guests so a lot of interesting things to talk about when it comes to the longer-term position of the ecb, and some of that will be no
doubt in the mix. and thinking about the inflation story, we had inflation data out of japan as well today and does this just underline the narrative that bond markets are not watching this? it does not have the same read across into the bond markets that you might expect it to. that ppi number, it has been inflated, and they are seeing it on the factory floor at levels we have not seen since 2008. mark: just like the china number is today, incredible producer price inflation. i have not gone through the metrics of how many of these numbers surprise on the upside but i remember i looked a month ago and in march, every single major economy in the world surprised to the upside. that was generally the theme into april and may as well. i need to run the numbers and check if it's every member or just the majority. the producer price inflation is way higher than economists are forecasting. they can see what is happening in commodities prices so it's really surprising how much this
is feeding through two producer prices. it does make sense that japanese markets don't react too much to this because there is a much higher reluctance to pass this through to the consumer in japan. traditionally, and i think it is not likely to be cpi in japan but it does confirm this global story on the producer side that prices are surging at a crazy level, at a level that people are not anticipating and that's either going to squeeze corporate profits or feedthrough into the consumer, and that means a yield reaction. anna: lots to talk about today and if you want to get up-to-date with the thoughts of mark and his team, the markets live team, go to mliv on your terminal. lots still to come on the program. president biden arrived in the u.k. for the g7 leaders summit. we are from cornwall at the latest, next. ecb decision day. we will go to frankfurt and we already told you we will be talking to the former ecb
executive board member at 7:30 am u.k. time. not much expectation of change in policy but a lot to talk about when it comes to criticisms of the program in germany three months ahead of the election. other things certainly on my list. we will get into that conversation shortly. if you have any questions of your own for our guests, send them to us. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> i agree emphatically that it is vital to vaccinate the world, and i am delighted to hear that there is support from the imf. >> this is the time to make relatively small investments in health, particularly to prevent the effects of this disease and the impact on societies and economies is huge and i really think that we need to think about that return on that versus worrying about what that investment is. anna: you just heard from the imf managing director and the u.k. health secretary, speaking at the g-0 media livestream event. still dealing with the pandemic, g7 leaders. u.s. president joe biden and other leaders of g7 countries are gathering in cornwall in the southwest of england today for the start of their summit. top of the agenda is a plan to
end the pandemic by the end of 2022. in cornwall for us is bloomberg's european anchor, guy johnson. we have seen some of the detail from the draft communique at least from the g7 already so what are some of the details coming through from that? guy: you highlighted one of them, that we will be vaccinating 80% of the world's population by the end of 2022. this nerves a number of different purposes area there is the humanitarian purpose. it sends a strong signal from the g7. but then there are other aspects worth thinking about. boris johnson is keen that climate is a big feature of this meeting and that it is mentioned in the communique as well but many poor nations are saying why should we sign-up to your commitments on climate if you are not providing us with vaccines? this sets up for boris johnson the meeting that will take place in glascow later on this year. he needs this to happen.
he needs the strong commitment from the g7. it also has a very strong pushback against china. there is this fear amongst many nations within the g7 that if the g7 does not step up and have a positive role in vaccinating the world, then china will cap in to that void and a diplomatic impetus that would provide would be something that would cause huge concern. china will be a huge feature of the landscape. it's going to be covid, climate, and it's going to be china. i think you will hear a lot about that. the g7 need to provide this commitment on vaccines in order to be able to push back against that potential idea that china would step in with its sinovac's vaccine and deliver that to many poorer nations. anna. mark: this is very exciting. not only are you in cornwall but this is the first time i get to ask you the questions on tv. apart from covid, climate, and
china, what else should we be looking at in the g7? rosalind: -- guy: here is going to be a meeting this morning between boris johnson and joe biden. i think we are going to look for may be a commitment to reopen the north atlantic root when it comes to travel and the devil will be in the details. i suspect -- i'm worried it will very high level and that we will not get much detail in terms of how that process is going to happen so look out for that a little bit later on and then there is the issue of brexit. how far will the u.s. be prepared to step in to what is happening in northern ireland at the moment? looks like the u.s. is going to issue some sort of rebuke or has issued some sort of rebuke to the u.k. in terms of its approach to maintaining peace in northern ireland and maintaining the good friday agreement. so you could see that happen but i think that will happen at a relatively elevated level. there will be an expectation that the e.u. and the u.k. will
sort this out and the u.s. can stay at a relatively elevated level, not get into the granularity of making that deal work. anna: plenty more from guy johnson on the ground floor in cornwall, keeping track of all those many themes on the g7 agenda. let's get a bloomberg first word news update. here is juliette saly. juliette: republican mitt romney and a handful of other republican and democratic senators are coming up with their own infrastructure plan but they are moving forward without any of the tax hikes that president biden has demanded to pay for the spen romney says tax increases are a redline for the group but he would not say how the plan would be funded. myanmar's military junta has formally charged the civilian leader and other officials with corruption. the country's ministry of information said she was found guilty of committing corruption using her rank.
if committed, -- found guilty, she could spend 15 years in prison. keystone pipeline, now dead. tc energy ended its 16 year quest to build the cross-border -- and it ended up being blocked by joe biden. in a statement, the company said it terminated the project after consulting with the canadian government in alberta. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. anna. anna: thank you. juliette saly in singapore. coming up on this program, eyeing inflation ahead of the highly anticipated epi data out of the u.s. today, treasury yields slid below 1.5%. more on that move, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> -- because we have never experienced in the past a recession that was self-inflicted, and coming out of it, with demand picking up, is something that of course we have to be careful about. anna: that was the imf managing director on rising inflation and as we wait for the highly anticipated u.s. cpi data out this afternoon, the 10-year treasury yield has slipped below 1.5 percent. we are joined by the chief economist at societe generale. good morning. we are thinking about why treasury yields have dropped as low as they have given the uncertainties around inflation and how high it gets and for how long. i wonder what your expectations are for this inflation number
this afternoon. >> a little bit below median expectations. the headline is 3% and that would give you a year on year rate of 4.7%. we also observe we are a bit more dovish than expectations. you know, come to the market, i think it's just a matter of everybody is going to take profits. the increase in treasury yields was really driven, first and foremost, by interest in inflation expectations. inflation expectations had risen a lot. people take profits on their position, but at this level, -- over the next few months, 12
year yields go higher. mark: good morning. you say your forecast is a little bit below the median today but something that has happened is you have massively revised your inflation forecast for both this year and next year and, you know, what was it that you think you missed a couple of months ago that has caused the forecasted to be revised upwards? are you worried about those same factors again being underestimated? klaus: yes, i am worried. there are two things. we saw that the oil price would ease back a little bit faster to the 65 to 60 area rather than hanging around at over $70 for brent. that's one thing. and what we did not quite anticipate is what has been called the reopening in the u.s., which is as certain sectors reopen, prices have increased quite a lot, whether
it's hotels, restaurants, etc., and that is what we underestimated. we are in pretty good company. everybody expected inflation to go higher. base effect, etc., etc.. but the extent to which prices spiked is significantly greater. there is a general complacency. anna: so what are you looking for for clues to really tell you whether we are seeing something that is really working its way into the fabric more broadly as prices rather than just being a very temporary spike? i was looking at research from standard chartered to get a sense of where the middle of the basket is heading, taking out some of the extremes. what are you looking for for your best clues into the inflation path ahead? klaus: there are two elements. inflation expectations, not so much. i am always slightly dubious of which direction the causality
goes from actual inflation to expectations or vice versa. the thing that i think in the medium-term is going to be decisive is what happens to wages because for this temporary inflation to become permanent inflation, what you need to have is an acceleration in wage pressures so that is the most important thing. in the u.s., where you have monthly data, the compositional effects would have suggested that the growth of wages is going to slow. well, not much anyway. i think that is really the important bit. mark: you have implied in your notes that you think that there is a member of g10 central banks that perhaps need a tweak in their policy. which central-bank do you think has the most misaligned policy right now? klaus: the federal reserve and the reserve bank of australia.
the federal reserve and the u.s. because if you look at their macroeconomic forecasts, gdpr in particular, the federal reserve now expects the level of gdp in 2022 to be higher than they expected it before the crisis. they still have not changed their policy standing. what is going on here? i think the rba as well. the rba, to whom the unemployment rate is of absolutely key importance. i agree with that, as i said earlier. for inflation to become embedded, you need to have a wage reaction and the wage reaction is going to be driven by the slack in the labor market and by the unemployment rate. the rba expects the unemployment rate at the end of 2021, this year, to be exactly where they are forecasted -- where they forecasted it to be before the crisis. what is going on? anna: thank you very much. klaus baader, chief economist at
anna: welcome back to the european market open. half an hour to the start of the equities cash session in europe. futures improving. u.s. futures look flat, very slightly positive as well. let's think about what is going on with the dollar. i know you have been giving thoughts to links between the dollar and short-end inflation expectations. what is your thinking? >> absolutely. today we are getting the inflation print. that is what we are focused on. the bloomberg dollar index has
been very near the six-year low but unable to break down. i was having a look at the dollar today. if you look at your screen at the moment, you can see this chart. this is the bloomberg dollar index, that white line. with the blue line is two-year inflation excitations inverted. to explain what that means, when the blue line rises, it is suggesting inflation expectations are falling. this chart would seem to say the dollar has been almost perfectly inversely correlated with inflation expectations at the front end, which seems a little bit strange at first. however, if you think that the fed is going to stay stuck no matter what inflation print we get, it makes sense. if you see a spike in inflation, but you know the fed will react, that means more negative real yield. the dollar falls, and that seems intuitive, but there are a couple of things that confuse me. one is the overlay is quite -- we have not seen any pricing, according to this chart, any
pricing of the tail risk if the fed does change its reaction function in the next two years, and that is surprising. the other thing is how closely correlated these were before the pandemic, before we knew that the fed was going to keep the front end anchored. it does imply, though, that if we get kind of a change in inflation expectations at the front end, if we think inflation is going to go even higher in the short end, it is going to be negative to the dollar. anna: so that inverse relationship is worth watching. let's think about some of the corporate news flow we are following this morning. here is juliette saly. juliet: president joe biden has revoked the bands on tiktok and we chat. instead the government will review software applications that could pose a risk to data of those deemed to suppose a security threat will be blocked. credit suisse will offer top
bankers retention bonuses after recent scandals lead to a string of personnel losses according to bloomberg reporting. the move comes too late to stop three more your figures departing, however. facebook says it will let all employees work remotely, even after the pandemic, if their jobs can be done from home. the network said they will reduce worker pay if they move to a less expensive area. they plan to open offices to 50% capacity by september. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: thank you. as wealthy nations emerge from pandemic research and's, the world faces an uneven recovery. covid-19 remains rampant in many developed economies, costing lives and deepening an already steep debt burden. a media livestream event on the future of health care, the imf managing director laid out how they can relieve the strain on emerging markets.
>> we are very much on track. it is confirmed that from the perspective of this day, this is going forward. not only that, we are looking at ways in which we can direct some from wealthy nations to those that need help. we expect by mid august to have the government -- $650 billion. for those that might not care as much, this is a reserve asset we create on the strength of our membership. it is the largest in the history of the imf issuance by far. rightly so, because we are dealing with the worst recession we have experienced since the great depression. >> some have criticized the
sdr's would be used to pay off the debt owed by developing nations to china. this rivalry seems to be in force right now. how does this affect the job you are doing? >> let me stress that we provide very detailed guidance to countries on how best to use sf r -- sdr's. it is not on any nation to use them to pay rather than restructure debt. we have the common framework. we want the common framework to be the dollar to resolve that issue. we also are increasing the transparency of how they are being deployed by countries as a way to encourage the current deployment of this very valuable reserve asset. one positive piece of news is that china actually would like
to make sure the adr's work as intended, and they are indicating interest to contribute some of their new adr issuance to pull funds at the management of the imf to be directed to support countries in need. so, the exact opposite of trying to use the adr's for the payment of service to china. anna: that was the imf managing director on the imf's response and global covid recovery, part of the wide conversation that also alluded to the health secretary in the u.k. coming up, ecb officials seem unlikely to spring any surprises in stimulus in today's meeting. we are live from frankfurt next. ♪
anna: welcome back to the european market open. 20 minutes to go until the start of cash equities trading. a lot going on today. inflation data out of the u.s. and in ecb meeting to talk about. ecb policy makers have all the evidence need to keep ultra-loose monetary stimulus in place today, partly to do with what the fed is doing. after wrapping up the ecb bond buying program in the second quarter to keep borrowing costs in check, it is time for officials to settle on a new pace for the months ahead. the central bank is also due to outdated's new economic projections. fining us is maria tadeo. to see you in frankfurt. -- good to see you in frankfurt. can christine lagarde walk the line between the improved outlook in the economy, but also avoiding talk about taper?
maria: yes, and we are back in frank for on a beatable day. -- frankfurt on a beautiful day. we know that policy is not going to change, but the language in that press conference will be key, because you can assume christine lagarde is not want to talk about tapering or anything that could tighten financial conditions, but at the same time, we are very much expecting a revision to both gdp and the inflation outlook. previous projections came out in march. the picture in europe at the time was different. we were going into lockdown. coronavirus was rampant across the continent. now we are looking at an economy that is reopening with a lot of momentum into the second half of the year. we will probably see an uptick to those numbers. what will be key here is that comment relating to the pepp program.
significant higher pace of purchases. it will be crucial to see. before this meeting, analysts told me if there is anything that looks like a hint of a taper, we are moving that significantly, you could see a selloff today. mark: maria, in terms of the strategic review, we are expecting a three-day retreat from the ecb to reinvigorate the debate. what do we expect in that? maria: this is everything for the european central bank. it was almost a battle of the soul of the european central bank entering into a new era, but a lot of this was suspended last year, but because of coronavirus, that was very much in focus. they want to pick up momentum. there is a retreat, and the big conversation around this has to do with inflation. what should that goal look like, but also how to measure this. there is a real debate as to
what should be incorporated in the future benchmark. it should also be interesting to see what we come up with for climate. this is something christine lagarde says is crucial for the economy going forward, that also has risks that we may not have measured or dealt with. it is see that it is picking up momentum and that the ecb is back at it. anna: maria, thanks. maria tadeo in frankfurt for us. we are joined by gertrude tumpel-gugerell, a former ecb executive card member and former vice governor of the austrian central bank. good to speak to you. we were just hearing from maria that there is a lot a focus on the language used in march and how that evolved. in march, we heard from the ecb that they would adopt a slightly higher pace of purchases that we have seen in the first months of
the year. do we expect that higher pace to be contribute -- to be continued longer in 2021 of this year, or will they dial that pace back? >> we have seen strong signs of the recovery, stronger than we had maybe expected in march. therefore, i think extra stimulus is not needed, but i do not want to -- about the central bank. but there are clear signs of inflation expectations picking up, and we have to be careful not to stimulate too much. mark: gertrud -- mark: gertrude, what is the exact wording you would look for from the ecb today in a possible tweak around their purchase plans? dr. tumpel-gugerell: i think it is important to look at the wording about inflation expectations. and whether they are seen as temporary or not, which, at the
moment, the general assumption, and the signal on the pepp program, on the timing and the volumes. anna: given what you said about your concerns around inflation, do you think that they might remove some of that wording about a significantly higher pace of purchases? is there a possibility they remove some of that if they are also concerned about higher inflation? dr. tumpel-gugerell: overall, they tried to signal stability, i would assume. stability in the case of policy. but maybe slightly higher concerns about inflation. mark: gertrude, do you think there will be any mention of the currency today? dr. tumpel-gugerell: i don't think so. anna: you don't think so?
we have been through the 122 level. is that an area where you typically see the ecb concern about euro strength? what area would provoke concern about euro strength? dr. tumpel-gugerell: it is not the usual range. but what is important is how strong are the spillovers we get from the u.s. to the european recovery, and also what spillovers we get from china from the european recovery and how strong the momentum could become in europe. we have, at the moment, strong stimulus from fiscal policy , from monetary policy. this is something to watch very carefully. it will be decisive whether things are picking up or not. we have a broad-based signal of recovery in the major economies, and the labor market is
improving. we have additional pushback just like the energy costs and the bottlenecks. people in the industry tell me that the bottlenecks in the chip industry cannot be removed too easily because it is not so easy to pick up capacity. there is a huge increase in demand for chips, and it is not so easy to meet this demand, and it will take time. mark: trade, you said there is a broad-based global recovery. how much of a problem do you think it will be for the ecb at the other major central banks in the world, most notably the fed, start turning a little more hawkish in the margin, as in of the fed at some point in the next couple months doesn't stop tapering their own program, how much of a problem will that be for the ecb? dr. tumpel-gugerell: the economies are linked, but are
not linked to totally, so each central bank has to look at its region. the ecb suddenly does not want to go for too much red tape, tightening too early. anna: so they look at what the others are doing, but not too much. let me ask you about politics. clearly we are heading towards an election in germany. there has been criticism from some in germany about the fear of rising inflation at a time when you've got subzero interest rates, and that leads to a lot of criticism about the pepp program. does that criticism make any difference? dr. tumpel-gugerell: i don't think so, because this is an issue where the court case was dealing with the past, and this does not affect the actual debate. in principle, quantitative
easing is not called into question, even by the constitutional court. the question is whether it is proportional, whether the ecb has acted too independently. these are different issues. the ecb has to decide what it sees in the numbers and has to decide independently. anna: gertrude, thanks for your time. gertrude tumpel-gugerell, former ecb executive board member, thank you for joining us. breaking as we were having that discussion, april industrial output in france dropping by 0.1% month on month, an estimate of plus 0.6%. the data series can be volatile. you'd usual caveats apply. but it is interesting in the context of a day that the ecb is expected to give a brighter outlook for the eurozone economy. interesting to flinch on
any weakness we see. here is juliette saly. juliette: the u.s. plans to buy $500 million of risers coronavirus vaccine to share internationally. president biden plans to join other g7 leaders in a campaign to end the pandemic by distributive shots worldwide. leaders have gathered for their summit in the u.k. biden and boris johnson will meet today to resume ash will commit today to resume travel between the two countries as soon as possible. it is not clear how soon that will be. the leaders are meeting ahead of the summit and will launch a joint task force to explore options. the country' is ministry of information said she was found guilty of corruption. if convicted, she could face up to 15 years in prison. she had the ex-president have been held by the military since february 1.
global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than hundred 20 countries, this is bloomberg. anna: thanks, juliette saly in singapore. coming up, we will get to the stocks we are watching this morning. patrick draghi's group agrees to buy a 12% stake. what are they excited about, or what to they want to change? ♪
the latest data out of a survey from the royal institution of chartered surveyors saw a sharp spike in prices in may, and that is why we are going to be watching names like taylor wimpey, persimmons, beltway today in today's trading. not only did they see a sharp spike across regions, but they are attributing this to a temporary tax reprieve for new purchases, also picked up savings that folks have that they want to put into homes. according to their data, they are seeing the biggest gap between inquiries from buyers and sale instructions since 2013. next, telecom tieups. we have ltc u.k., a new company run by patrick brahe that is sort of affiliated -- patrick draghi sort of affiliated with the u.s. version, buying a 12.1% stake in bt group. no intention of a takeover offer, but the steak itself is
2.2 billion pounds, so pretty massive. this newly formed company is coming out and saying we really support management here, we like what they are doing, and we think there is an opportunity to be involved with what they call one of the most important policies from the british government, which is that expansion of the cyber network across the country. bt group is interested in that. it opened up some of the infrastructure building to outside investors for the very first time on this. finally, dark trace. a cyber for my pod maple saw a massive 32% spike -- a cybersecurity firm that ipo'd in april saw a massive 32% spike. analysts see a structural gain in cybersecurity overall that dark trace can take advantage of. jeffries is putting their price target well above what the stock
is trading at, 500 pence. they all see the potential for cybersecurity to be a big, big, hot commodity in the market. anna: simone foxman, thank you. mark, direct light on the question of the day, our stocks going up or down next, what is your hunch? mark: we asked today whether the s&p 500 will trade at 4000 or 4500, roughly a 5% move in either direction. nearly all the responses are going to the top side, and people are clearly reluctant about it. there is no alternative, there is too much money. anna: if that money is going to keep coming from central banks, i suppose the people are seeing it go somewhere. maybe that is into stocks. mark, thank you for spending the
anna: welcome back to the european market open. here are your headlines. president bynum writes in the u.k. for the g7 leaders summit as the world's richest countries vowed to deliver a billion extra vaccine doses over the next year. asian stocks and european futures climb with treasuries ahead of the crucial u.s. cpi print this afternoon which could provide clues on monetary policy. the ecb will plot the next phase of its pandemic bond buying program at today's meeting,
where we are also live on the ground in frankfurt. welcome to the program, the second hour of the european market open, 10 seconds or so to go until the start of the cash equities session, and we've got european equity market futures pointing slightly positive. but nasdaq futures just turning negative, and we are fairly flat on u.s. futures, so we will keep that in mind as we get into the european open. we are looking at the upside on a few individual names. the business being taken over by patrick draghi" coat is a story we will keep an eye on. there are plenty of macro themes to get into. we will have the data later on today, the ecb and focusing frankfurt. we will also keep an eye on what is going on in cornwall, down on the beach, thinking about all the geopolitical themes, climate change, rollout of vaccines, relations with russia and china.
all of that very in the mix. with all of that in mind, we see european equity markets making modest gains this morning, up 0.2%, certainly on the stoxx 600 as a whole. gains a little weaker, but gains coming through on the dax. the ftse is fairly flat right now. flat to positive for european equity markets. this is coming ahead of the highly anticipated u.s. cpi data due out this afternoon. bond bulls taking the u.s. 10 year yield below 1.5 percent, signaling supports that the rising inflation stowed by the pandemic is temporary. it signals that, or it signals that the fed is going to focus on unemployment instead. let's talk to simon, seeing your analyst at monex europe, who joins us now. simon, good to see you. think about some of the data coming to us this afternoon.
you've got data coming through to the united states later. what are you watching? it is going to be a long time to find out whether inflation is temporary or not, whether this is going to leave us with a sustained higher base level of inflation for the u.s. economy, so what is in the data today? simon: as you say, it will take time before the market re-understands whether the fed messaging is correct or not. the fed says there will be a brewery overshoot, but how long does it take for inflation to begin moderating again, and can the market tolerate this in the short-term? we think that ever since the fed pushed back around march with regards to inflation, with regards to setting very high thresholds, we always thought that the markets were somewhat overstretched, and that is why we hope for a decline in the dollar in france and rates being anchored. we are starting to see fixed income markets sitting in for the long haul. they understand that in the short-term, we are going to see
up she did inflation. the up sheets and inflation -- up shoots in inflation. the upshoots are still going to be pushed back. in q3 or q4, is inflation still going to be there, and are the markets going to be content with the fed reacting to this by announcing the tapering of qe, which we expect around q3? when it comes to all these different dynamics, it is very hard to pick through the cpi data at the moment to get any indication of what is coming, how quickly this is going to moderate, and so forth. even then, it is very difficult with the pandemic-induced disruption in europe's economy to understand what is really the underlying inflation level in the economy there, and how long it is going to take to moderate and where it is going to moderate back to.
anna: give us a little more about the messaging is from the bond market, and how that fits in with fx, because we see very low yields on the u.s. 10 year. we came down from 1.7 earlier this year to 1.48, so below 1.5% on the 10 year bond yield. is that because the markets have come around to the view that this is going to be temporary, or is it that the markets think that it might or might not be temporary, but the fed is watching something else, watching the jobs market, and that is going to matter more to bond markets? >> you can look at it in multiple ways. you could argue that markets are coming around to the fed moderating. breakevens have collapsed across the curve over the last week or so. if you look at employment, there are multiple different angles as to why net employment is undershot, but generally, we are
not doing too much of a tight narrative, because we can look at it in multiple ways. i think the markets are settling in to summer, and we are going to see this generally. we have the ecb today, u.s. inflation, and in the fed next week, and we are not going to see any kind of major policy and i months from that -- policy announcements from these two central banks until later. markets are looking for something they see as tolerable to hold onto for the next month or so until we come into jackson hole in august. that is where we are up with that, because inflation, we have already had the upward surprise in april. it is almost a case of the fed has not changed its stance, so why would they now, one month or two months worth of data does not define a longer term trend for the markets. anna: we are settling in for summertime, and where does that leave the dollar? the bluebird dollar index, this year has been a tale of two
quarters. the first quarter, they are heading higher on the dollar index, the second quarter heading lower, and we are back to where we started the year on that particular index. where do you see the dollar heading? is he going to tread water for the summer? simon: i think we are going to start to see very mold depreciation. we still think the dynamic is still intact. we are not going to see the kind of big unwind in the u.s. dollar that we are seeing over the second quarter, but we are going to see continually that the fed messaging will continue to weigh on the dollar somewhat, the kind of growth story elsewhere in the world chips away at the u.s.'s exceptional growth story, and stimulus in the u.s. could changes dynamic in q3, so it does not look like that is coming anytime soon, and we are set for a mild depreciation in the u.s. dollar overall.
but really, with regards to fx markets in the next month or two, we are going to see almost a stagnation, and that is why we are looking for the ecb meeting today and the federal reserve meeting next week, because they are going to set the tone of how policies are going to trade for our summer, and these policies petitions are going to be set inside from these two meetings and define how the dollar trades. anna: simon, thanks for giving us your time this morning. senior fx analyst at my next europe. -- monex europe. ecb officials seem unlikely to spring any surprises over stimulus at today's meeting, but there could be a lot of interest in talking about how the ecb does eventually unwind policy, and the latest forecast coming through from the ecb. all that going to be in focus, and also the german political backdrop and the digital euro.
danger. >> it is hard to imagine a big wage inflation spiraling at this point in time. >> this is very much the healing of last year's artificial stock, but it is wrong to think of the environment as the new normal. >> inflation is a lot lower in the u.s. and the recovery is behind. >> when it comes to 2022, we expect headline inflation to drop down around 1%, a significant drop. >> we are watchful because we could never experience in the past a relation that was self-inflicted. anna: some thoughts on european inflation concerns coming from many different places. let's keep it on europe and the ecb policy makers have all the evidence they need to keep ultra-loose monetary stimulus in place today, thanks to the fed ramping up their bond buying program in the second quarter to keep borrowing costs in check.
it is time for officials to settle on a new pace for the months ahead. the central bank is also due to update economic projections. joining us from frankfurt is maria tadeo. thanks for the update. christine lagarde is walking a fine line between an improved outlook on the one hand and wanting to say, look, the european economy is doing better, but at the same time avoiding talk of tapering stimulus that the ecb has been introducing. maria: yes, you can see why this is very tricky. we are not expecting any changes to the policy itself, but that press conference will be very important. we are expecting that projections for both gdp and inflation will probably be improved. there is a real conversation in europe as to whether inflation dynamics are similar to those in the u.s., or whether this is just a one-off. when you look at the economy, and i, this is a different scenario to the start of the year. coronavirus was rampant across
europe. there were lockdowns that took steam off the economy. now the momentum is different. vaccinations have picked up and there was momentum building into the second half of the year. it will be interesting to see if on the pepp program the language will stay unchanged, that cigna become a higher reference. the markets want to avoid anything that looks like taper talk. if you do get a hint that does signal tightening, you can see a selloff in the market today. the market is not positioned for that today, and that could be a shock, so the language in the press conference will be key for lagarde. anna: we are looking for a restatement of that line, a significantly higher pace of buying versus the first month of the year. that is what they said in march. it is the word significant and higher paste that the markets are going to focus on. in terms of the strategic review, looking longer-term at the ecb's mandate and what it is
all about, we are expecting a three-day retreat from the ecb to kind of invigorate that debate. what are we looking for? maria: that is the idea, to inject some new life into that review. remember this was bigry before the european central bank before the pandemic hit, and was suspended for much of 2020. the focus on that is very much on the inflation target. there is a real debate about what the target should be, what measures or blood numbers and which benchmark should be included and what criteria. analysts will tell you the inflation target is not about the number, but components, and things like housing costs should be included in that. it will be interesting to see what they say about climate. that is something christine lagarde has stressed should be a bigger determinant factor in the economy and the risks it poses for the future.
it is a review that is looking to reinject some life into that debate, and it will be interesting to see what comes out of that retreat. anna: thank you very much, maria tadeo, joining us in frankfurt, teeing off our coverage of the ecb. she says it will be an interesting press conference to watch in terms of the balancing act christine lagarde has to strike. we've also got u.s. futures moving more negative right now, down by 0.2%, nasdaq 0.1% to the downside. let's get a bloomberg business flash. here's juliette saly. juliette: democratic senator elizabeth warren says the u.s. government needs to step up oversight of the cryptocurrency market. moran turned bloomberg tv that the market for digital joins is the wild west -- moran told bloomberg tv that the market for digital coins is the wild west. an airline is in talks to buy
100 737 jets. it is a time to upgrade at a time when boeing and airbus are hungry for deals. facebook says it will lead all employees work remotely even after the pandemic, if their jobs can be done from home. but the social network says it may reduce workers' pay if they moved to a lesser expensive area. it plans to reopen its office to 50% capacity by september. that is your bloomberg business flash. anna: coming up, more than 12 million electric passenger vehicles are on the road, but despite rapid uptake, bloomberg's new energy finance team says it is not enough to reach ned zero by 2050. we will have the details next. ♪
>> u.s. relations with traditional allies freight under donald trump. president joe biden has vowed to repair this. one area where the group should find common ground, stance towards china. the world's largest democracies are increasingly determined to combat china's rising influence, be it faxing diplomacy or reducing its reliance on coal.
along with discussing pandemic response and vaccine distribution, leaders will consider climate change, with every g7 nation stressing support for green goals. this meeting offers a chance to craft a strong message, but the debate over details could expose division. president biden, mario draghi, and the prime minister of japan will attend their first g7 summit as leaders, while angela merkel's swansong. she is leaving office after 16 years as germany's chancellor. her departure will alter the gathering of the democratic nations. anna: that was annmarie hordern on what to expect from the g7. more on the crucial meeting in the southwest of england throughout the show. let's get back to the markets. u.s. futures are a little more negative than they were. nasdaq futures down a couple of tenths of a percent. let's get to the individual
movers in europe, where european equity markets are flat this morning. bt group up by just over 1%. stella and to's -- stellantis down by 1.9%. they are facing charges over diesels, joining vw and renault in the probe led by french authorities. juliette: the u.s. plans to buy 500 million doses of pfizer's coronavirus vaccine to share internationally. the word came as president biden plans to join other g7 leaders in a campaign to end the pandemic by distributive shots worldwide. the leaders have gathered for their summit in the u.k. president biden and british
prime minister boris johnson will commit today to resume travel between the two countries as soon as possible. it is not clear how soon that will be. the leaders are meeting ahead of the g7 summit and will launch a joint task force to export travel options. myanmar's military junta has formally charged the military official and other individuals with corruption. the ministry of information said she was found guilty with committing corruption using her ranks. if convicted, she could face up to 15 years in prison. suu kyi has been held by the military since the february 1 coup. this is bloomberg. anna. anna: thanks for that, juliette saly, with your update. there are now more than 12 million passenger electric vehicles on the road, with uptake rapidly rising in recent years, but despite the move towards ev adoption, road
transit is still not on track for carbon neutrality by 2050. aggressive policy action is needed, and the window of opportunity is closing fast. joining us now on set in london, the bloomberg new energy finance head of advanced transport. thank you for joining us. let me start by asking you about the geography of this. we talked about ev adoption and where it is sluggish. his china still leading? >> china is still leading, but europe is going quite quickly. european adoption of plug-in vehicles is about 15% of new sales right now. china is more like 10%, but more of them are pure electric vehicles. china and europe are the leaders come on north america still a -- are the leaders, north america still behind. anna: we started with a gloomy statistic that if we carry on at this rate, we are not going to
be carbon neutral, so if governments want to reduce emissions, do they can to be changing policy, encouraging, incentivizing faster adoption of ev's? >> things are going fast, but it has to go a lot faster. when you look at these long-term targets to 2050 and you start working back what has to happen today, you need to get adoption really--- really high. the last convection vehicle needs to roll off by 2035 in order to stay on target. that means things like tightening fuel economy regulations, support for targeting infrastructure. that will be needed to keep us on track. anna: i know from prior experience trying to buy electric vehicles that sometimes the lead time is very long and the charging infrastructure is incredibly patchy, and that is even when you have something to charge at home, which does not apply to a lot of. what are the barriers that stand in the way of faster adoption? >> the lead times are coming
down, so automakers are getting very serious. they can roll out more models, crank up production faster. that should be fine. the part about charging infrastructure, ud need more investment, about $590 billion, but a lot of that is just individual people buying chargers for their home. still, for people who do not have home chargers, you need robust infrastructure, and get to higher levels, people do need to -- there is a significant amount of investment that is needed. if we compare it to renewable generation, that is about $300 billion a year, and we are talking around $600 billion over 20 years. there is manageable amount of money, but there is still a lot of work to do ahead. >> what does this do to oil prices. we are transitioning across the economy to different energy sources. how much -- what are your
expectations for this oil demand? >> in the long term, this is pretty grim. we ran two scenarios. in both of them, the outlook is quite grim. the outlook rises in the next five to six years. exact in -- impact on price is hard to say, but it matters what happens on the supply side. on the demand side, the outlook is pretty gloomy for oil demand. anna: that is an interesting conversation. thanks for seeing the details. good to see you. thanks to colin for bringing us that report. coming up on this program, president biden meets other members of the g7 cybersecurity looks to be high on the agenda. it follows increasing hacks on u.s. infrastructure. the u.s. president may seek support for his tough line on china. he has also been outspoken about
anna: welcome back to the european market open. we are having our into the trading session, a little bit sluggish. u.s. futures are a little sluggish. dow is actually flat, the ftse 100 keeps its head above water. looking at things from a sector breakdown, technology and health care and basic resources are to the upside. that is adding some upside to
london. autos and parts are also weaker. in terms of travel and leisure, we do see some of those aviation stocks under speculation. easyjet and others are down. back to geopolitics, u.s. president and other leaders are gathered in cornwall in the united kingdom. part of the agenda is the plan to end up pandemic by the end of 22 a two. -- 2022. we are with our european anchor, very good to speak to you. a diverse agenda, what are the details? >> the headline from it is that there will be a push to
vaccinate the world by the end of next year. a billion vaccines will be delivered to cover around 80% of the world's population. this will do a number of things for the g7 leaders. the thing that is most crucial is that if they did not do this there would be an opportunity for china to do the same. very much a focus of the summit will be a pushback against china and russia. another aspect is climate related, the poorest countries around the world are asking white they should sign up to your pleasures when you are not providing us and our populations with the kind of business we need? you help us with this, maybe we can help you with that. boris johnson has another conference later in glasgow. he wants to lay the foundation for that. he wants everybody to be on the same page and he wants a tidal
wave of enthusiasm for something to happen at that conference. climate and covid is that main goal provided g7 that the g7 -- provided that the g7 can provide a vaccines. anna: the push is coming from the united states. there is some frustration inside that euro area, within the eu, maybe why that message is having trouble stateside. there are lots of things on the agenda. guy: there are lots of things on the agenda. from the u.s. point of view, it is about three things, climate, covid and china. i will throw russia next to china. there is a pushback, democracy -- democracies pushing back.
a meeting next week with joe biden and vladimir putin. china is where the difficulty lies. this is where frustration comes from europe and the united states. the united states is keen to push back against china as an enemy and europe is taking a slightly different tactic. it will be interesting to see whether or not [indiscernible] particularly in the pushback against china. that will beat with the summit is about, to make that happen. a club of democracy. anna: guy johnson, thank you very much. getting ready for the summit and dealing with all that background noise. as leaders gather today for that meeting, joe biden will seek
european partners with his top line on china. one way is to convince them about the cyberattacks and alleged spying on angelina markel. a new cable manufactured by china will emerge along the coast on the south of france. the united states has agreed to use it. there is a long simmering struggle between china and the u.s. we are joined now by chief security officer andy purdy, whose company has just launched the biggest privacy security and transparency sector to help change the story. it is good to speak to you. you are launching this privacy sector in the face of all of that western criticism. i wonder what your aims and focus is to achieve with this transparency in china? andy: this is really part of the
effort. we want to strain the security system and provide transparency, meaning getting the ability of stakeholders, governments, regulators, customers, and providing value to them so they can come in and test our products. we encourage our competitors and others, it is important to be -- for there to be independent verification. our security baselines and requirements for secure coding and compilations of data, all of those technical things, talk about how all these can't work together. also, a message of collaboration. i note president biden will meet with g7, collaboration is critical to bring the benefits of technology to the world. it is critical to address the shared responsibly of risk. and we need greater inclusion. anna: the u.s. is not wanting to
collaborate with huawei in recent years. there is a question about the backdoors that cyberattacks can exploit. is there anything you are preventing at this center which will indicate changing that u.s. view? andy: no. it builds on the reason that i accepted the invitation for huawei years ago to help promote a collaboration with international standards and g7 i am glad to see g7 -- and i am glad to see g7 will talk about it. we need independent testing, these recent cyberattacks show that the concept of trust in the supplier is no more. we can trust no one. that is white president biden has ordered cybersecurity, zero trust. we need to work together to make
safer cyberspace to get the benefits. anna: your company has a difficult relationship with the trump administration. some signs under president biden look a little better, certainly if you look at the social media ban's that have been lifted. sick attorneys have been talking between the u.s. and china, do you think that huawei's position will be reviewed by u.s. authorities? andy: we are less concerned about our ability to do business in the united states, we are concerned about how we can work together to promote a safer space. our approach to president biden is not just doing things to block trust, he is trying to promote the ecological competitiveness of the united states. he is trying to help promote our semi conductor industry. some of these orders are trying to come up with evidence-based findings for deciding who is worthy of trust.
hopefully we will come up with stronger standard and greater transparency, much greater accountability for companies and for governments. that includes the international stage. anna: what are the prospects of huawei getting with that? andy: we don't think that is a huge priority. there are bigger fish to fry. the challenge of making america safer for cyberspace has been revealed in these executive orders. that is important. we hope we can talk to the u.s. government, we would like to collaborate. we have been active in global efforts. we are closer with our competitors. this is the kind of thing that takes presidents. the ability of american companies [indiscernible] there are american jobs on the line. hopefully there can be a compassionate focus on [inaudible]
including semi conductor industry. anna: the u.s. has those views about backdoors that have allowed cyber attacks for nations to exploit. your smartphone business has faced challenges as a result. how much has the blacklist part the cell phone business? andy: our mobile phone business has been severely hurt by the controls that limit the sale of the semi conductors to huawei, we do not have full supply of the tips. plus, the u.s. has blocked the ability of google to work with us on android. having us work with a google trusted company with this flash form for mobile devices would make everybody safer. those have had an impact on our revenues. we will get through. -- we will get through it. anna: thank you very much.
anna: welcome back to the european market open. european equity markets are flat overall. there is some upside in blended and downside in france. -- upside in london and downside in france. singapore will relax their covid restrictions in stages. i am getting a line coming through saying they are doing that. work from home will default to manage risk. they will start vaccinating 12-30 nine, bringing down the age region -- range. the rules will ease only went more people are vaccinated.
let's talk about what will go on in these markets. a digital music company, believe, has gone public in paris today. falling to its lowest ipo price in years. they are seeking to raise 3 million euros, cashing in on the booming growth for streaming during the pandemic. we are joined by the ceo of believe, denis ladegaillerie is with us from paris. it is nice to speak to you. tell us what believe does in the digital space. denis: good morning. thank you for having me. believes mission is to give artists and labels in the real world. we provide solutions to artist at various stages of their career. from new artist to top artist. anna: with that in mind, what do
you plan to use that money for, the money you are raising today with this ipo? denis: we expect that by the end of this, digital music will represent 80% of recorded music revenues. therefore, we will invest in building and local territories. we will be in close proximity and support local artists in their development. we have many acquisition opportunities in territories and we expect to do 109 euros and the next three years. then, we will continue investing in our digital expertise and our technology platforms for the artist. anna: what are the kinds of deals you would want to do if you have been buying up labels, you are not enough a traditional
sense, a music label, what you need to add? denis: we are in a world that is transforming rapidly. we will look for additional labels that are looking to accelerate digital transformation and then we help them grow faster by repositioning them and making them available to them. there is a new generation of digital friendly labels they understand how to elaborate -- how to collaborate with platforms and they raise very fast and generally they are looking to accelerate their growth. this is the type of opportunities we are looking at across the markets where we operate around the world. anna: you listed today at 19 euros and $.50 a share.
-- 19.50 a share. you are trading now at 17.50. are you a bit disappointed with the first 47 minutes of trading? how does that stick with you? denis: no. i think our view has always been from the very beginning that this is a long-term market transformation. we are super confident and writing on markets where streaming is going very quickly, where we see the rise of artists and labels, we have signed more of them in the first quarter this year than ever in our history and it will provide future growth for us. we are trimming confident in the long-term growth potential for the company. anna: no doubt on the longer-term rise.
how do you think covid has accelerated those options of digital music? it has been a phenomenon that has been sped up by the pandemic, what is your take on that? denis: [indiscernible] some of the artists or on lockdown in their home like many of us. they did not release music for some time and, for us, some of the advertising-based services, we let them grow less than they did before. what makes us optimistic is that we see all around the world, concerts reopening, venues reopening. we have many artists in the first quarter and in the coming quarter, we will be releasing music that they have been holding on.
we think the markets are reopening and it has accelerated the transition. there are more than -- more artist now that relies we live in a digital world and that means digital artists and digital function. we do much better than traditional players out there. this is what makes us very attractive to artist. what we anticipate as countries reopened, we are going to see an accelerated trend and growth and attract new artists. anna: thank you for bringing us the story. thank you for talking to us. denis ladegaillerie, the ceo of believe. coming up, investors have a lot to keep an eye on. we have a meeting, inflation data, plus the g7 summit is taking place abroad. we will talk to our market live team next. this is bloomberg. ♪
the u.s. data. but as the story? laura: what is most surprising about the past couple of days are the epic rallies that sought 10 year yields breakout of that range, they are now below 1.5%. i think that tells us that markets are convinced that this inflation pressure will be transitory. they are convinced that the fed will stick to that site of the mandate. there is a lot of room there. markets are going to look through that and the fed will look to that. it is another catalyst of will that change that narrative? anna: one of our colleagues saying it is a strong number and the markets saying that if the fed is looking at the job market, [indiscernible]
that could be part of it. the ecb is also in focus, [indiscernible] we will get a press conference, there is a forecast from it. laura: this meeting may have been more exciting before the members came out with the expectations. they are unlikely to scale back their bond buying today, they will keep the pace of purchases around $85 billion mark. again, it is all about christine lagarde, will she have a hawkish tilt today in a press conference? we could see bond markets brace for the tapering ahead. if we look at what is happening in the key proxy of financial conditions, the tenure spread, that did why didn't by about 20
basis points from that meeting through mid-may. that has come up quite a bit. the spreads are wider than the last meeting, but nothing to be concerned about. i think they are quite happy with that. they want to continue to contain the spreads. it will be a fine balancing act. anna: thank you very much. laura cooper, think for bringing us what to watch on the inflationary story in the united states and the ecb. tapering will be happening at the same time. we will bring you coverage of that data and that press conference where conversations could roam and get into interesting territory. we will also have come running in the backdrop, the g7 taking place. that is it for the european market open. "bloomberg surveillance: early edition" asap next. the markets look flat right now. the ftse 100 is lifted a little
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>> more has to be done. countries that have a surplus need to share some of those doses. >> certainly not at the level where inflation would be a danger in europe. >> in the u.s. it is different. pres. biden: we want a stable, predictable relationship. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance: early edition" with francine lacqua. francine:rning everyone, welcome to