tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg June 4, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT
♪ anna: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters. these are today's top stories. a mixed picture for stocks as investors await the may jobs report. data showing and improving employment pitcher. janet yellen faces pressure for a global tax deal by the end of the week as she prepares to meet her g7 counterparts in london.
cryptic crypto. it coin slips after eight -- a tweet from elon musk hinting at a potential split. it has just gone 6:00 here in london. let's get straight to the markets. some data for you. this is the picture across the asia equity session. msci making modest moves to the downside. good news is bad news in terms of risk assets. the u.s. data picture yesterday was. look at the jobless claims. the u.s. ism services number, you could knock the positive column. yet we have seen hesitancy coming to markets, per caps -- perhaps was that--- what that does to the taper conversation. the jobs picture will be later today. we have the u.s. 10 year yield at 1.60%. that edged higher in yesterday's session as we saw that
commentary around what the fed will to -- do something when we start to see this data improving in the united states. keep an eye on that. keep an eye on the dollar. there's a live conversation in markets right now as to whether the good news on the jobs front is priced into the dollar as a result of that number yesterday. 978,000 jobs created in the private sector. have we already seen the best of the dollar this week? will there be further to go if we get another strong number in the jobs report? if we get a week number, the number changes. bitcoin. we were talking about elon musk tweeting. he tweeted a broken heart umoja inc. -- emoji. that move bitcoin. 26%. not a big move by recent standards. mixed picture for equities. upbeat economic data from the united states shows concerned -- concern. investors are brave -- braced
for the payroll report today. again for jobs in the month after april's numbers saw the biggest miss in the history of the report. the debate over tapering continues amid the fed's unwinding of its bond facility. bloomberg spoke with the former new york fed president bill dudley on just that. >> what they are doing with the corporate bond portfolios is unrelated to the notion of monetary policy tightening. it is actually a very small portfolio in terms of size. it's not something that they typically own as part of their portfolio. i would not take that decision as implying anything about the timing of taper and lifting off and raising short-term interest rates. anna: important contacts there from the relevance of that. the unwinding. let's talk about the u.s. economy. s&p global rating chief
economist, dr. sylvain broyer. if i can start with the u.s.. on a day like today, a lot of us focus stateside on that u.s. jobs report. the number for april was such a disappointment. how do you think we should be looking ahead to the jobs number a little bit later on? what would count as a good or bad number for you? dr. broyer: yeah. the data today is crucial to follow. the recovery of the u.s. labor market was disappointing. we still have 9.8 million people unemployed in the u.s.. another 80 million just yet to be recovered compared to the pre-pandemic event. it would take monthly gains of double the pace to get there in 2023 which is what economists forecast.
a disappointment would be to have it two times higher than the previous victor. positive number would be to have that, more than that. anna: within the jobs report, we look for the headline numbers. you set out what's going to be looked at and what is anticipated. the wages data is often important. some forget that wages components is less useful than other wage measures. some other economists suggest they look at the atlanta fed assessment of the wage story. also eci employment cost index. one guest telling me that is more informative when it comes to the wage story. how crucial is the wage component? it seems as if that could have links into whether we see inflation sustained or temporary. dr. broyer: yes.
in a highly developed economy like the u.s., the labor is a main driver of inflation over the longer term. we've seen u.s. labor costs slow to 1.7% in the first quarter, down from 6% in the fourth quarter. it means the underlying trend of pace of inflation cannot be the 4.2% we have seen in april. even if u.s. inflation is a bit more protracted than in europe, given bigger fiscal burdens, the inflation momentum is about to slow and inflation will fall at the start of next year. wages are crucial, a part of the package on the inflation front. anna: we need to keep an eye on that link. what about the story around
unemployment benefits in the u.s.? it is interesting to talk to a european economist with your perspective and your view on the disincentive to work that unemployment benefits create, or not. this seems to be alive debate in the united states. against quite political. maybe the unemployment benefit is keeping separate -- certain people out of the labor market. with your european expertise, what would you comment on on that theme? >> -- dr. broyer: it's a different policy choice then has been made in europe. the public choice has been made. workers have to take the losses from covid and companies have not. this is a public trust. in europe, the choice has been to put cisa -- sufficient public money on the table to keep the human capital and working
capital flowing. europe has seen, in the global financial crisis, that such furlough schemes have an economic benefit over time. it spares time for companies to rehire people. it keeps the human capital afloat. for instance, if you see the situation in the u.s., you still have almost 80 million people jobless in the u.s. right now. only 3 million in europe. wage growth will be slower as a consequence in europe. it's different choices. the benefits, we see the benefits and the longer term on this. anna: let me compare across the
atlantic, the fiscal impulse. it takes different forms. it's easy to follow the u.s. story when it comes to big numbers. whether it's around infrastructure or before that, support for the individuals in the u.s. labor market. the european story is different. because of the safety net that preexisted. how would you assess the size and scope of the fiscal impulse in the u.s. versus europe? dr. broyer: it's a bit difficult to do a direct comparison. i was just looking at the numbers, the amount of money on the table. as you said, europe does not need to bring as much money as the u.s. on the table because of the automatic stabilizing in european governments. the u.s. plan seems to be bigger, more frontloaded. it's a 10 year plan.
partly financed by tax. you don't need automatically to give consumers extra money in europe because we have general social insulation schemes that work as stabilizers. the question for europe is whether it has done enough compared to the u.s., compared to the widening of the gap that might be bigger in europe than in the u.s.. that is something europe will have to reassess. anna: we will get onto our conversation about europe specifically next. things very much for being with us this morning. stay with us. sylvain broyer. now let's get a first word news update here at bloomberg. here is annabelle droulers. annabelle: thank you.
inoculations against covid-19 have reached the 2 billion mark in a little more than six months. at the current pace, it will take nine months to vaccinate three quarters of the global population. a threshold that could provide herd immunity. the rollout has been uneven. mainly benefiting the developed world while low income countries are struggling to get shots. u.k. and u.s. lead the way with vaccinations with european union members catching up after a slow start. president biden has pitched a 15% minimum tax on u.s. corporations along with strength irs enforcement. the plan would also increase tax revenue by conducting more audits of rich taxpayers. the white house sees the offer as raising money without rolling back president trump's tax cuts. something republicans have said is a redline. activists in hong kong are
planning private vigils and religious services to commemorate the anniversary of china's deadly tiananmen square crackdown. police planted -- planned to deploy 7000 personnel to enforce bans on gathering. a prominent organizer was arrested after applying to hold a publicly -- public vigil to mark the occasion. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg. it's -- this is bloomberg. anna: thanks very much. coming up, we get the european growth conversation. the eu is set to issue joint debt to fund the recovery. we have all the details. we go live to brussels for that next. this is bloomberg. ♪
♪ anna: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. welcome to the program. 15 minutes past 6:00 here in london. you member states have agreed to allow the european commission to raise as much as 800 billion euros to help fund the blocks recovery from the pandemic. maria tadeo, good morning to you. we've known that the eu was going to jointly raise this money. that was what last summer was all about. the decision to allow that joint debt raising. this seems to be a breakthrough in terms of agreeing how this is going to work. dr. broyer: -- maria: yes. you are right. it is finally happening. the commission will tap markets this month in june. when you take a step back if you see how big the package will be, the symbolic nature. the fact that the european union
is tapping markets, something that was seen as a redline a few years ago. in terms of how this is going to work, this is the full package. it's about 800 billion euros. the commission will have to issue a lot in a very sort -- short amount of time. they are looking to tap markets for 80 billion euros. they are looking to do that starting in june. it's likely that that auction will be a syndicated auction. from that point on, we are going to get 150 billion euros of joint debt issued by the commission each year until 2026. when you look at the full amount, the eu will become one of the biggest issuers in the world. especially when you look at assets in europe. anna: when we think about the size of this, so many options in such a short space of time. coming quite soon. can this all be successful? is there appetite in the market for it? dr. broyer: yes. -- maria: yes.
this is a big question for the commission. if you look at every option they have done, there have been programs that go for joint action, those have been very successful. they've been over prescribed. there's a lot of debt in a very short amount of time. they have already enlisted 39 banks to work with the commission, some in europe, a lot of them on wall street, to help bid -- build that space. they say there will be appetite. a lot of this will happen over the summer. also pick up in september. it's a big question to see what will happen there. the role that the ecb will play into this. i assume it will be a big buyer of this new debt that is entering the market. it will be aaa. a lot of questions about whether it could become a long-term committed or to the german bund. anna: there's a conversation about what this does to pricing
of other debt. individual sovereign nations and their ability to raise money. maria: yes. as i said, there's a lot of debate in the market as to whether or not this is the new safe european asset that everyone has been longing for for years. that would perhaps compete with the blinged. it would be interesting to see what it does to something like a french bond which had all been trading as a more liquid market when you look at it from a boon perspective. it will be interesting whether or not this removes the appeal from a french bond. on the options, this big auction will be placed using the french auction system. it is centralized and it will be done by the french central baked. -- bank. anna: thank you very much for the update. sylvain broyer.
our guest is still with us. when you look at the appetite, your colleagues have been looking a great deal at the appetite for all of this debt. from an economist perspective, how significant is the pile of debt that will be raised fairly soon across europe in this joint basis? what difference could it make to the european growth story? dr. broyer: it's very goodness that the next generation eu is starting to rebuild. the eu issuance, especially in green bonds, will strengthen the international role of the euro. it's already the leading currency in terms of green safe havens. it's a very small market. green safe assets are making more than 120 billion.
still a very small market. greening the financing system. europe is leaving. that's good. in terms of growth, the impact of the next generation has significance for countries of the eu, countries that need growth the most. depending on the affinity of the mentor states. also depending on the use it will make with this money with double to fire affect. -- the multiplier effect. it can add 1.5% of gdp in a conservative scenario, low impact scenario. up to 4.1% in five years on
high-impact scenario. it is definitely important. anna: when we look ahead to the ecb meeting coming fairly soon, what is your expectation there from the monetary policy side of things? most economies see the ecb continuing to buy 20 billion euros worth of debt per week until september. the plan ends march 2022. that seems to be what the ecb has flagged. would you expect it to stick to those plans? dr. broyer: i think so. there's no urgency for the ecb to change course on bond purchases next week. the eurozone academy -- economy, the recovery is lessened and fragile. at the same time, financing conditions are volatile. too early for the ecb to reduce the pace of qe.
the september meeting provided a better opportunity to reassess the pace. the nature of inflation will become clear in september. don't forget, the ecb will have clarified in fall. this is probably the most important. the strategy will give the ecb enough ground to decide on the future of these very different programs. these two programs are aligning. there's an urgency for the ecb to wait. anna: thank you for joining us. have a good weekend. sylvain broyer. coming up, g7 finance ministers meet in person today for the
♪ anna: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. the g7 finance ministers meet in london today where a revamp of the international tax system is likely to be on top of the agenda. european leaders are considering a proposal from the biden ministration to make companies with $20 billion in annual revenue pay more of their tax bill and places that they operate, not necessarily where they choose to allocate their profit. good to speak to you. what is the current international tax situation?
what is it that the ministers are looking to amend? >> right. thank you for having me. at this point, one of the main issues is whether they will be able to find some kind of agreement on this proposal to make companies with at least 20 billion annual revenue and dollars pay more of their tax bill in the places that they operate. the main issue is the places they operate. the other big issue for european nations is to find some kind of profitability threshold as well. we are talking about revenue. the point is that you want low-margin companies like amazon to pay up. we want the digital companies to be included. many of the arguments are around the u.s. saying, yes, we understand and we would like the principal. but we don't want u.s. companies singled out. we don't want to feel like this is damaging the u.s. in some way. they need to find some kind of away to sort of retrofit the
criteria to fit the political roles. the goals are to get these tech companies and and make sure the taxation is more fair. especially that they are taxed for the profits come from. anna: they've been in europe for a very long time. these agile tech businesses, how do you make sure they pay taxes somewhere? interesting to see how that develops. which companies are europe are brought into the scope of this change of policy? it's not else -- all about tax. would also be on the table at the g7? >> climate is hugely important. the u.k. is pushing for the group of seven to impose mandatory reporting on big companies. it shows that the negotiators have been on a knife's edge. this could go either way. many countries feel that it is limiting. there's fiscal policy issues as well. the economy and what will what -- happen because of the
pandemic. will we be able to help the economies were couple with fiscal stimulus? when is fiscal stimulus too much? anna: thank you very much. lots on the agenda. thanks for j (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates. and safe for all fitness levels. get gym results at home
she prepares to meet her g7 counterparts in london. and cryptic crypto. a tweet from elon musk hinting at a potential split. 7:30 in paris. let's look at where we are on the global picture. asia-pacific down 0.1%. u.s. futures entirely flat. not moving that far and maybe that could be expected in a day when we are going to get a jobs report. 10 year yield, a little bit higher than yesterday, reflecting positive data. has led to a pricing and perhaps of little bit more tapering at the margins. that is something to watch out for. the dollar, also in focus with that jobs report. did we see that already around the app report? bitcoin put that in as well as a
result of a headline story. elon musk tweeting 80 -- emoji when it comes to bitcoin. we will keep that in mind. it is a mixed picture for equities. concern of a pullback in central-bank stimulus. investors braced for the nonfarm's payroll report. it comes after april's numbers saw arguably the biggest amiss in the history of the report. the debate over inflation and tapering continues. we spoke with new york fed president bill dudley. >> you really have to have pressure on resources. it starts with labor. it is premature to expect a real inflation problem because we have a lot of people out of
work. you look at the level of payroll employment, before the pandemic started. 8 million jobs short. wheat pressure in the first quarter was firmer pretty year on year, private sector workers are up to 0.8%. it is hard to have a wage problem if wages are -- >> how much control does the fed have over inflation. >> they have control in the large in that they can control how fast the economy grows. that ultimately drives inflation. obviously, the supply disruptions we are seeing right now, they cannot do much about that. the spike you saw in used car races, that is a confluence of two things. disruptions limiting new-car production. demand for rental companies getting back in business. >> that raises a question about
the reaction function, how much they can affect change. perhaps it is not a first step toward tightening policy, but the fed is going to unwind it's nearly $14 billion portfolio of corporate debt. is this policy a template for how the fed will handle additional situations going forward? >> i think what they are doing with the corporate bond portfolio is unrelated to the notion of monetary policy tightening. it is a very small portfolio in terms of size and it is not something they typically own. i would not take that decision as implying anything about the timing of taper. lifting off and raising short-term interest rates. anna: interesting thoughts of former new york fed president bill dudley. let's continue this conversation and look ahead to the job report with michelle who is with us.
good morning. there is a wide range of forecasts for this month's reports. everybody so much remembering what happened last month, the disappointment. what are you looking for in this report? to better understand how the u.s. labor market and economy are functioning? >> good morning. all 76 estimates are looking for a higher topline figure than the disappointing 266,000 in april. the estimates are wide-ranging. this may be viewed as a check on the april data. the big message whether -- whether we can view the april disappointment as a fluke. maybe seasonal factors got in the way. given the massive uncertainties, economists are saying they will
not be surprised by any number of scenarios. some things to focus on, we will be looking for whether businesses are pushed to bump up wages to attract more employees. we heard that from bill dudley. we have been hearing labor -- of labor shortages in the beige book. that is whether it is about the unemployment support team provided. i would also look at the labor force participation. likewise, i think the hours worked measure could be telling. some economists pointing to that as an indicator of whether businesses are adding more hours. finally, it will be interesting to see the sectoral breakdown. as more americans have been getting vaccinated, more are getting out into a reopened economy. you would expect to see some
covering hospitality and tourism. may be in sectors like transportation and warehousing. they did decline in april. anna: we know the fed watches the inflation data and there is debate about how sticky that inflation picture is going to be. the fed likes to emphasize the importance of jobs data. how might this affect the story around jobs and inflation? >> for the fed, jobs is going to remain at the forefront. this report will not resolve the debate at all. it might be one where they will be able to point to some items of data. if we do see decent wage gains, you will probably have the crowd warning about higher inflation. arguing the fed should not plan on such a long timeline.
even with a good report, job gains and wage gains, you can probably count on white house and labor department economists say there is a long way to go. the jobs market is several million short of pre-covid levels. and unresolved questions like how much time is safe and reasonable are making for a complicated and uneven recovery. this report, if it is a good one, should have officials looking forward to that summer recovery which should give them more room to talk about when in might be appropriate to look at less accommodative stances. anna: thank you very much. michelle looking ahead to the jobs report and linking it to the fed conversation. let's get a first word update. annabelle: an ocular a should's have reached the 2 billion mark
in the a little more than six months. at the current pace, it will taking nine months to inoculate three quarters the global population. the rollout has been uneven. lower income countries have struggled to score shots. the u.s. and u.k. lead the way. with european union members catching up after a slow start. japan is sending covid vaccines to taiwan, which has blame to china for impeding shipments of shots but with a consignment of doses of the astrazeneca vaccine is expected to arrive on a flight later today. taiwan's shortage comes among rising case numbers and fear of a health crisis. a company backed by billionaire bill ackerman is set to be in talks for merging with universal music. we are told the combined entity would be valued at about $40
billion. owner vivendi had plan to spin off universal music in an ipo. google has announced android users will be able to opt out of being tracked by advertisers in smartphone applications. developers will no longer be able to see a user's unique advertising id. however, unlike the iphone policy, users will not be opted out of adverts trucking by default. global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts. this is bloomberg. anna: annabelle with an update on the first word news. coming up in daybreak, tesla sinks after a report casts a shadow over sales in china.
looking for tesla? what do we know? >> orders in china dropped about 9000 800 inmate. this is just the latest in a string of reports that would sing -- seem to indicate the carmaker is facing a sales shut down. the number registered is down sharply from 35,000 in march. because tesla is exporting cars, the market is concerned about these declines we are seeing. anna: indeed. what does this tell us about how tesla is doing more broadly? this is one month's set of data. politics never far from such a large american business in china. what do we know about how tesla
is doing and the pressure on tesla and china? -- in china? >> everyone would agree it has been a rough few months in tesla. the problem started in march when some were banned from military compounds because there was a concern the cameras in the cars may be capturing sensitive information. on top of this concern, about security, which elon musk pushed back on -- he said those no way -- there is no way cameras in tesla cars would be used for spying -- there has also been concerned about the safety of tesla cars. that came to a head in the shanghai auto show when a protester yelled her brakes had failed and almost killed her father who happened to be driving.
that video went viral. many accidents involving tesla's have appeared in social media. that is adding to the overall image of the company seems to be battling. i think those are numbers we will start to see may, june, or july. they could be very telling. anna: thank you for the update. the share price of tesla down 5% or more in session and the u.s. yesterday. the eu planning a border levy as part of its fight against climate change. the idea is to slap import duties on steel, cement, and aluminum from countries with lower environmental standards. joining us is our green reporter. why is this move from the eu necessary?
i remember speaking to a u.k. government voice who suggested u.k. is considering this kind of measure. watching closely what the eu is doing. why is this deemed necessary by the you -- eu? >> one of the reasons is because carbon prices in the eu have gone up about 50 euros or $60 a ton. this is starting to bring industry. the focus is on steel, aluminum, and cement. the mastic industry is being -- cnet level of carbon price. if you import these goods, especially if they come from a carbon intensive company like china, those manufacturers are not paying the same carbon price as domestic manufacturers. as we look to cut emissions, as the eu is going to put in
regulations for its green deal in july, bloomberg news reported the details of this carbon adjustment mechanism could be also revealed in july. anna: sticking with the green activist theme and what we have seen there, a big week of course for climate change policy, and a big couple of weeks for activism with regard to large oil companies, exxon activist engine number one securing a third board seat. how big a deal is that? >> it is the biggest boardroom shakeup exxon has ever seen. the fact we have a third seat means the activist investor, number one, has a quarter of the board, which is 12 board members. what is probably a bigger deal is now there is the rumblings
among activist investors they could repeat this kind of performance at other companies. what is happening is you have the activist investor bring out a case. to get investors who are invested in indexes like like rock are supporting these boardroom shakeups. they are seeing companies are not doing enough to cut emissions. it will be interesting to watch. we are going to have to wait for the next agm season. which companies could activist investors be targeting? anna: and back to the subject of tax, a shipping giant calling for a carbon tax of $150 a ton. why are they looking to punish them self is the way many might look at this? >> it is an odd one.
if you think about why mirsky -- mersk is doing it, they are saying their customers are saying -- if we are going to clean up our ships, we should not be punished as a company just in our own. if you put an industry wide carbon tax, everybody will be incentivized and we will be able to make our money back laying out cleaner ships either through fuels or cleaner fuels like hydrogen or natural gas. anna: thank you very much. a host of interesting stories in the green agenda. thank you for bringing us over. we started talking about the eu carbon border levy. i am going to be speaking to the
a cryptic tweet from elon musk has sent bitcoin sliding. muska tweeted, a broken heart umoja. -- emoji. good to see you. based on that tweet, we are reading a lot into a heart and a linkin park reference. is he breaking up with bitcoin? what does that mean for his holdings? >> i never thought i would be on television trying to parse through linkin park lyrics from an elon musk tweet. bitcoin is down almost $2000 at the moment. muska has not explicitly said if he is selling any of his holdings in bitcoin or any other cryptocurrency. once again, we are trying to
parse through as you say cryptic tweets from musk. it is becoming a bit of a habit of his. he is tweeting over the last couple of months and the market listens. certainly for a lot of investors, and has ruffled a lot of investors -- replies. a lot of upset crypto investors out there. maybe there looking to break up with him. anna: i won't pretend to understand all of that. broken hearts i can understand. how unnerved are crypto investors? they may feel like they have been let down by musk in the past. after realizing maybe bitcoin was not great to the via -- environment. how on earth should investors feel about this? >> it has been a bit of a
double-edged sword. when he was tweeting about how great does coin -- one currency was, the prices were surging. now his tweets are moving the market on the downside, it is a lot less welcome. the enthusiasm has turned quickly to scorn. it is encapsulating the continued volatility and uncertainty in investing in this space. you have an individual who is able to move markets by a single tweet, and certainly raises questions about institutional investors being interested in holding assets like that. anna: not even a whole tweet. just one emoji. thanks you for -- thanks for joining us. that is it for "bloomberg daybreak: europe."
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