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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  May 12, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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annmarie: good morning from new york, this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." another down day for stocks as investors wait crucial u.s. cpi data. in europe, an update from brussels on the eu spring forecast, and u.k. growth is set to contract. international community calls for, as israel and hamas escalate deadly strikes.
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a very good morning, 1:00 here on the east coast. 6:00 a.m. in london. we are seeing another down day this wednesday morning. following from wall street lower, you can see that across equity markets. ms eia shutdown. -- msci is down. on the cusp of wiping down all the gains of 2021. 10-year treasury yield, 1.6%, a higher yield as we have inflation risks coming into the market. not as much in the united states where the curve is steepening as we see across sovereign debt in the european union. 10 year treasury auction will be out today. oil relatively flat. we will have an update on the colonial pipeline. the pound 1.41. andrew bailey will speak in an hour. we are getting breaking news out of commerzbank.
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first quarter adjusted revenue coming in at 2.31 billion euros. the estimate was for 2.25 for the first quarter for 2.25 billion. the net interest income is also in line. going through a few of the earnings from commerzbank. loan loss provisions is what we want to look at, 149 million euros. the estimate was for 180. the chief financial officer will be joining us in over an hour. in february, she had said that it is going to be hard for commerzbank to post a profit after taxes this year. the big data point is the shape of u.s. cpi, inflation set to
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quicken with a year on year comparison amplified by the shock of covid-19 shutdowns in 2020. any reading that suggest higher prices will reignite the debate over tinkering. the great and good have weighed in on the debate. >> any spikes we see in inflation are likely to be temporary. >> the highest inflation numbers are ahead of us. i think ultimately it is going to be more temporary. >> inflation is likely to go higher for a time, but there are reasons to think those factors are likely to be transitory. >> it is not transitory. we will continue to have inflation on the valuation of currencies. >> there can be a big gap from where they are starting and where they need to be to keep the economy from overheating. annmarie: we are joined now by suzanne hutchins, investment
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manager: global funds, newton investment management. she says volatility indicates the market is going through digestion problems. we have the risk of inflation and an unsustainable recovery. walk us through these digestion problems, and how you foresee them playing out to the end of the year. suzanne: obviously the market has been on a rip sense the base effects of covid last year. it is not surprising that we have some digestion problems in the market given the level of markets today, and other risk assets. in a longer-term framework, we are not surprised we see consolidation. the risks to the backdrop, as you pointed out earlier on, is really that with inflation,
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people are tending toward inflation being temporary. anything more structural, we will not see until we get the employment report. that could change the dynamic and the outlook for the regime which is one of deflation over the last 10 years to one of reflation. that has broad implications for bond markets, and where you want to invest across the spectrum within equity markets as well. we have the psyche of covid, and we have been locked down and are opening up. and i think the whole of society with that backdrop is feeding into what is going on in the market as well. annmarie: you mentioned some on the debate say it is transitory and others think more durable. why do we have such a heated debate and there is no consensus about this? suzanne: i think it is difficult to determine inflation and where
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it is. at the moment we are seeing inflation in short supply in the commodities area. and certainly in a space like copper, iron ore, aluminum, all of these goods that are needed here and now, where you see the commodity market because people need these commodities now. i guess the struggle is a longer-term perspective, which we try to keep a hold of. longer-term we strongly believe we are at the beginning of an economic cycle. we are through the recession. it will have heating problems. bonds have been friends for the past decade. it has been a bonds friendly environment where bonds will not
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help stabilize. that does require a big shift in investment banking as well. and after a decade of people investing in benchmark multi-asset portfolios, we believe you need to have more diversification in your portfolio to stabilize returns. it is getting over that edge of 10 years of deflation to one that is a reflation environment, and how much inflation there will be. annmarie: you think 60/40 is dead, what should replace it? suzanne: a very diversified multi-asset strategy which has returns that can stabilize, and you can use stabilizers apart from bonds. you can use things like gold, cash, derivative insurance, and premier strategies where you
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take advantage of low volatility with the expectation it will rise significantly if you get a market drop. you can pay for these with investment insurance very easily. you need to have a real mix in your portfolio and not put all your money on black. annmarie: in your notes you say for commodities it is hard to get the timing right when you want to enter. you think the boom is on its way out? suzanne: commodities are such a broad term, and some commodities we can see supply on the horizon such as iron ore. something like copper, it looks like the supply will be for a bit longer, but then you have the demand dynamics behind it which is a tailwind. not only do you have a tailwind from 5g, electric vehicles, but
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you have the whole infrastructure program in the u.s. that will see copper in short supply. i think demand will outstrip supply. a lot of that has to do with the big themes going on in the marketplace such as sustainability, environmental issues, the mood toward climate change, big power. annmarie: the green transition. suzanne hutchins, investment manager: global funds, newton investment management stays with us this morning. i want to bring you more headlines out of commerzbank. they are waiving their 2021 revenue forecast. and also a picture on where they were on first quarter net. it was a beat. the estimate was for 53.2 million euros loss.
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and we will speak to the commerzbank chief financial officer in an hour. anna edwards will bring you that interview with bettina orlopp. let's get your first word news. >> israel is stepping up attacks on the hamas-controlled gaza strip. it follows a barrage of rockets file that central israel. the death toll in gaza is at least early five, while five were killed in israel. the latest fighting seems the most serious escalation since the 2014 war in gaza. the u.n. security council will hold a emergency session to address the crisis. colonial pipeline has been on hold since criminal hackers targeted the company last week. the on that deadline there are few details about when the
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biggest pipeline in north america will recover. it said it would be back online by the weekend. in the u.k. come up prime minister boris johnson is signaling that a public inquiry into the government's handling of the pandemic will be set up within a year. he says it is essential to hold a full improper probe, and that will happen within this session of parliament. the new session began yesterday with the queens speech and is expected to run for about a year. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. annmarie: just ahead, growing evidence that the covid vaccine is working well in the real world. our exclusive interview, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the results from phase three trials are from an example existing of tens of thousands of people. the more important data is the use in the real world. we have real-world data in chile . tens of millions have been inoculated. protection is that 89%, and over 80% against hospitalization. isn't this more convincing data? we encourage our partners and governments in countries where vaccines are being used to release such data as soon as possible. the result from the real world and the data we have from
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clinical trials will allow the world to judge our vaccine comprehensively. >> you talked about chile where initial real-world data has shown that it does bring down instances of severe disease and death. but cases arising in chile again, and that is raising questions about the ability of sinovac to quell the outbreak. what is your response to that? >> sinovac was distributed to all the younger groups in chile, but we only provided chile with less than 50 million doses of the vaccine. each person gets two shots, that means only 7 million people have been vaccinated. the vaccination rate of chile, with a population of 90 million,
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is only 36%. meanwhile, with such a low rate, the people most active are under 60 years old, meaning the vaccination rate of this group is far from enough. in this case, it is normal that the virus cases will rise when activities are back. >> where are you looking to bolster supply? are you looking to export this to any new countries? are there any new deals you have made? yin: the biggest challenge we have so far is how to meet demand. we have provided 50 million doses of vaccine to brazil and indonesia, and about 20 million doses to turkey, which accounts to 20% of their population. but that is not enough. the virus is still spreading.
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we need to expand supply, which is a really big challenge. annmarie: ceo of sinovac speaking exclusively with emma o'brien in beijing. on the european continent and the economic recovery underway, later this morning we have updates on forecasts on eu growth and inflation. in february it expected growth across the region of 3.7% this year. joining us from brussels is bloomberg's maria tadeo. outline what we should be expecting. maria: we will probably get a revision of the growth expectations which will be upgraded. the commission will sound optimistic about the prospects for growth, stemming into next. it is a combination of the recovery fund, the vaccination campaign is much faster in europe. the easing of restrictions should see the economic momentum really accelerate in the european union.
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on the vaccination front, germany has vaccinated on average 800,000 people to one million people on a daily basis, that is a huge number. almost 30 million germans have had one shot of the covid vaccine, the biggest economy in europe. that rollout is pushing ahead now. annmarie: you caught up with the italian minister, what did he tell you about the recovery? maria: we spokelusi with the italian minister for european affairs. italy is tapping a huge amount of money from the european union in credit, but there is a feeling, the italians do feel this is a breakthrough moment for the country. they have the best player coming out on the field, mario draghi, and it is a real opportunity for growth. take a look. >> the long-term and the
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near-term of italian political view is the sustainability of the public debt. boosting growth and public investment, we see the possibility in the midterm, according also to have the debt under control. maria: that was the italian minister for european affairs. there are high expectations, but the question is whether or not mario draghi will succeed pushing reforms that have been an issue for the italian economy for the last 10 years. annmarie: thank you so much, maria tadeo. . suzanne hutchins, investment manager: global funds, newton investment management is still with us. european equities at an all-time high. euro stocks 50 compared to the rest of the world. what if we have the recovery in europe speed up in acceleration?
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could we see fresh eyes? suzanne: europe has been lacking the u.s., and partly because of the rollout of vaccinations which have taken longer. if you look at the makeu t euroe biased to the number of financials and energy related plays and exporters. i think europe will catch up, and we are starting to see that in the data. annmarie: you also like emerging markets. i look at what is going on in india and brazil in terms of covid. does it scare you about a recovery happening in the em space? suzanne: we really have to look at the long-term, and what are your clients' expectations. we are expecting a three to five-year period, and you need
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to look through this noise. [indiscernible] if you look at the long-term perspective for prospects for emerging markets, given population growth and the demographics and the dynamics of that, india and china particularly, they really define the good long-term consumption growth and infrastructure growth for the future. there is plenty of opportunity there, and you can use the volatility of these markets to invest. annmarie: mark mobius yesterday said em will grow faster in the next 10 years. do you agree with that
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assessment? suzanne: yes, i have confidence emerging markets have the potential to do that. they are in a better place than where they were 10-15 years ago. they have better balance sheets. the economies are missing some of the moves we have seen in developed markets, and in terofe pretty much ahead of the game. i think there is a lot of opportunity there, but you have to be careful about government spirit esg is very important. you can really add value to your clients and ensure you generate long-term wealth. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us this morning, suzanne hutchins, investment manager: global funds, newton investment
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management. just ahead on the program, the international committee calls for, as israel and hamas escalate deadly strikes. that is coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." the international community has called for calm amidst escalating violence between israel and hamas. a barrage of rockets were fired it central israel this morning. we are joined now from tel aviv with bloomberg's barrow chief for israel and palestinian territories. -- bureau chief for israel and palestinian territories. give us an update on what happened overnight. >> that israeli army nicked up
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its airstrikes on hamas targets in the gaza strip. hamas fired more than 200 rockets at the tel aviv area. that brings the total to more than 1000 launched at israel since the fighting started monday. annmarie: give us a bit more of a sense of the toll it has taken. >> palestinian officials say more than 30 palestinians have been killed in the west bank. another teenager was killed in clashes. israel says some of those deaths are due to errant rocket fire. in israel five people have died from rocket attacks.
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israel grounded flights at maine international. annmarie: what have israeli and palestinian leaders saying what will connect? koby: the hamas leader suggested yesterday that he is ready to end this round of violence. in the same breath, he said if israel wants more of this discourse, his side is ready to continue. israel's prime minister was more unequivocal and said this campaign will last sometime without providing further specifics. diplomats from the united states and egypt, which have had a historical role in cease fire's, are trying to find a way out of this. so far, no clear signs of progress. annmarie: thank you so much for that. just ahead, another down day for stocks.
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investors awaiting the crucial u.s. cpi data. we will talk all things inflation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. this is daybreak: europe. investors await crucial u.s. cpi data. commerzbank boosts its 2021 revenue forecast. net income topped estimates. the international community calls for calm as israel and hamas escalate deadly strikes. good morning to you. 6:30 a.m. in london, 90 minutes
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from the start of equity trading. it is a risk off day. asia is taking the cue from the closeout of the united states yesterday. msci i asia-pacific down more than 1%, on course to wipe out all the gains it has made in 2021. across assets this morning, 10-year treasury yield's 1.62%. -- 10-year treasury yield, 1.62%. you can see the debate happening out loud across financial networks, but also in the market, whether you see people are buying. is this going to be transitory or something more prolonged? nymex crude, 65 bucks, $.37. florida another state declaring a state of emergency as they see a potential people crisis hitting their state. the pound this morning, 1.41. in 30 minutes, u.k. gdp data.
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the week's biggest data comes today. inflation set to quicken with year on year comparison amplified by the covid-19 shutdowns in 2020. anything indicating higher prices for an extended period will reignite the debate on tapering. here is what experts have been saying. >> any spikes that we see and inflation are likely to be temporary. >> the highest inflation numbers are just ahead of us. ultimately it is going to be more temporary. >> inflation is likely to go higher for a period of time, but there are also reasons to think those factors are likely to be transitory. >> it is not transitory. we are going to continue to have devaluation of currencies. >> this talk of short-term rates is not going to happen until the economy is already at full of limit. there will be a big gap where
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they are starting where they need to be to keep the economy from heating. annmarie: michelle, how is the great inflation debate involving this week? is the central bank or economists that are winning right now? >> it is far too early to declare a winner overall, but it feels like the investor side is getting momentum, or getting louder about its case as both sides harden their positions. we saw the china data this week, ppi figures showing inflation early in the pipeline, and that added to the debate -- added fuel to the debate. we have seen 10 year breakevens rising. even though some indicators show there is traditional reluctance by investigators. we are also seeing the commodity price range on. every few days, we get a new star of the show. earlier this week, it was iron ore, but as of late, it is a huge basket. copper, chips, rubber, and so
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many others. that may point to why this is getting more complicated. the debate is increasingly colored by the wage narrative. this is a big piece of what they are looking for in order to consider tightening. we have heard from many of them that they are shrugging off business anecdotes about not being able to hire due to short labor supply, but we are also starting to see employers start to ante up. whether the increase is persistent enough to make a dent in the headline, that is an open question. we got used to talking but a surge in commodities as one basket, but each commodity has a different story and could start to move quite differently later this year. some are more dependent on weather patterns, others are more dependent on factories getting online, and others are linked to how quickly infrastructure projects can get going. there is plenty to keep investors busy. annmarie: the data is coming out in about seven hours.
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walk us through what we can expect. michelle: the u.s. ppi data, with this data we have to take a deep breath, particularly now. the second quarter data we have known would look shocking on its face. now that i have that out of the way, the bloomberg -- is at 3.6%, which would mark the highest in almost a decade. that is pointing back to 2011 when oil was higher than $100 a barrel. certainly not at that level now, but our front of the mliv team set a big cpi print could mean a jump in the dollar in addition to treasury, so that is something to watch in the market reaction. on the fed side, even if we get a big number, we are likely to see them double down on the transitory stance. they will need more than one cpi report to sway them. their information is casually related very differently. however it goes, take it with a
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grain of salt him about we will add more fuel to this debate that we have been seeing all your -- grain of salt, but we will add more fuel to this debate than we have seen all year. annmarie: if there is a beat, what does that mean for the bond market? >> that would be a huge beat, to rise higher than 3.6%, but it is very hard to predict. as we have seen, these are continuing to rise to the upside, all these prices and surges in different markets. we will have to see, but this is going to have to be taken with a grain of salt and then measured against expectations that are already skyhigh. annmarie: thanks for that report . let's get a recap this morning. your first word news with annabelle droulers. annabelle: the chinese sinovac shot is proving highly effective in a study in indonesia. it was 96% effective in
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protecting health workers from hospitalization, an encouraging sign for dozens of developing countries reliant on the shot. it performed far worse than western vaccines in clinical trials. >> we encourage our partners in government, in countries where vaccines are being used, to release such data as soon as possible. the results from the real world and the data we have from clinical trials will allow the world to judge our vaccine conference of the -- comprehensively. annabelle: australia's new budget aims to run the economy hot and hit low when employment levels rarely seen in the past 50 years. they are spending big on care for the infrastructure -- on infrastructure, care for the elderly, and tax breaks. france says talks are resuming with fishermen around jersey.
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last week, the u.k. and french navies were drawn to an increasingly bitter dispute over post-brexit fishing rights. dozens of french boats mounted a protest near new jersey over the new rule. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 or less and analysts in more than 120 countries. -- journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. annmarie: thanks for that. the our community has called for calm overestimating violence between israel and hamas. a new barrage in israel this morning as the strip was pummeled with airstrikes. our colleague sent this report. >> this place was bombed early this morning i is really warplanes in response to fiery -- by israeli warplanes in response to firing rockets at
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the gaza strip in israel. tension is prevailing in the enclave that has been under is really blockade for more that -- under israeli blockade for more than 50 years. people ever read and scared that this section will see its largest scale military operation that israel may carry out vacancy gaza strip. -- against the gaza strip. >> [speaking foreign language] >> if you look at the street, it is almost empty ahead of the end of the fasting month of ramadan. people here are experiencing hope that a truce will be
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reached soon in the gaza strip. annmarie: bringing you both reports in tel aviv and gaza this morning. just ahead, the company that runs north america's biggest fuel pipeline says it will know by late today whether it is safe to restart gasoline and diesel flows. the latest on the cyberattack of colonial pipeline next. ♪
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annmarie: good morning.
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this is daybreak: europe. the nine states government has reached an agreement for a blacklisting that could restrict investment in huawei -- can shout me immediately. xiaomi up 5% on this news. it is a chinese smartphone giant. it had sued the u.s. government earlier this year after the defense department issued an order designating the firm as a communist chinese military company. that would have meant it would have to deal from u.s. exchange meant -- u.s. exchanges and global benchmark indices. you have chamois and the u.s. government agreed to drop the firm from the blacklist. this is good news for xi aomi. what else is going on in equity markets this morning? we are seeing a downdraft across
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the global scape. mis-c i asia-pacific on the cusp of losing all the gains they have made. colonial's ceo has pledged to get america's biggest oil pipeline flowing again by the weekend. president biden is facing growing pressure to marshall federal resources, resorting to panic buying at stations across the east and south of the u.s.. joining us is stephen stapczynski. how much of a concern are the fuel sources for the u.s. government? i know we have north carolina and florida both declaring state of emergencies. >> yeah, fuel shortages are on the mind of everyone and the white house. the white house is facing increasing pressure on this, and they announced several pressures on tuesday to blunt the growing crisis that has threatened this
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post-pandemic economic recovery with potential shortages. it could derail what the government has been able to build and also hurt the economy going forward. the biden administration had a briefing, and they said they are taking into account different ways to help ease this, one of which is potentially waving the jones act, which would allow for u.s. supplies of oil and products to be transported via ship to different ports on foreign ships, which is an rule that has existed for over a hundred years. but there are different things the government is looking at to try to ease prices in states like florida and north carolina that are under the worst of the pressure. annmarie: they waived that during superstorm sandy when new york was dealing with fuel shortages. the question is, when is the pipeline going to be up and running? >> that is a good question. colonial pipeline has told federal officials that they will
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know by late wednesday whether or not it will be safe to restart the flows of gasoline and diesel that have been on hold since last friday. while there is an intent to restart it on wednesday, that will take days longer to ramp up that operation. that is a very big pipeline. restoring the system could take weeks. because it has restarted, this crisis is not -- just because it has restarted, this crisis is not totally averted. annmarie: thank you for joining us. just ahead, we speak to the cfo of alley on's -- allianz. that conversation coming up next. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. let's get back to the earnings picture in europe. allianz, europe's largest insurer, posted a 45% drop in first-quarter profit, a sign the company can deliver on april 8 -- on a pledge to restore earnings growth. the ceo compared the pandemic to a meteorite on the insurance industry. we are joined by the cfo, giulio terzariol. thanks for joining us. a 45% increase begs the question , especially as we have green shoots coming in terms of, there is -- seems to be light at the end of the tunnel for the pandemic. when and under what circumstances will you start to have a buyback program? giulio: thank you for having me
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here. as you highlighted, the results for allianz have been strong. the underlying performance in all segments was really strong. you see also our capital position, to 10% -- 210%, is very solid. to your question about buyback, i would say that now it is too early. from a sentiment point of view, i would say regulators are not really there for respect for buyback yet. the situation might change as we go into the second part of the year, and as we are going to be presumably out of the lockdown situation. here in europe or germany, we are still in a sort of lockdown situation. it will take a bit of time to win, but for me, the important thing is not so much whether
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there is going to be a buyback or something different. the point is we are stronger and we are going to find the best way to deploy this capital in a profitable way, regardless of whether there is going to be a buyback or some other -- annmarie: you are alluding to those conversations could start in the second half of this year. could that mean that in 2021 we could expect a buyback? giulio: first of all, we are constantly having conversations with our regulators. i can tell you the conversations are very constructive. i would say yes, it is possible that, as we look into the second part of the year, we might have a buyback, but right now i would say it is a little too early. but the conversation with the regulars are very constructive, and the situation might change as we go into the second part of 2021. annmarie: you have done smaller
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m&a deals, including buying units of aviva. could you capitalize on the fact that a lot of companies are restructuring and remaining on the sidelines when it comes to m&a during the pandemic? is this a moment for you to maybe boost m&a deals? giulio: yes. the transactions we have done in the last few months, like the transaction in poland and italy, are an indication of our strategy, which is to capitalize on opportunities, because at the end of the day, we can strengthen our franchise. this happened with the acquisition in poland, where we are getting to number two in the life business, and especially the kind of life business we like. in italy, we have a highly performing company, so we could spend a little bit of our franchise there too. and if we see an opportunity where we could somehow add to
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our franchise, we are going to seize this opportunity. that is exactly where a company with this dru balance sheet can take -- with a strong balance sheet can take care of the situation. annmarie: are there any deals currently in the works? giulio: i can only speak about where we have been so far. i think we have been -- what you might see in the future will be consistent with what you have seen so far. i think this philosophy has played very well, so from that point of view, i would say there was no intention to change this kind of approach, but you never know what might happen in the future. if u.s. me, i would say what you saw in the past might be what you see moving forward. annmarie: allianz has said there will be less impact from covid in this current year. what areas in property casualty, then, could you expect losses? giulio: right now we still see
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losses in business interruption. i would say they are kind of limited, but i would not say the situation is completely behind us. also, to be fair, this loss is mostly compensated by a reduction of frequency, especially in the motor second. from that point of view, it is a wash, but we still see losses in business interruption, and from our standpoint, where we see it right now, and this is going to normalize in the second part of the year, is slower revenue in travel. that is an area where we would want to spend to go back to a normal level of profitability. the situation is more stable than 12 months ago, so from that point of view, definitely the worst part of the corona situation is behind us. now there is most of it in the system. we are still not back to the normal level of profitability, but we are very close. annmarie: i want to ask you what
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is going on in pimco in terms of flows. power flows at pimco currently given -- potentially a rise in yields, given the fact that potentially we have inflation picking up? giulio: i would say the last four quarters have almost been like a swiss clock. clearly that is not going to be the case every quarter. if we see inflation rising, this might have an impact first on the flows, but we also see that the resilience of the pimco franchise is very strong. we know that pimco usually rebounds very strongly. eventually, long-term, there are technical requests for fixed income assets, and if yield goes up, there will be even more requests.
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from that point of view, we are very positive about the transactions with pimco. quarterly flows are a different story. i also want to highlight that it is not just pimco. we have sk hynix performing nicely. we had 12 billion of them, the highest ever in their history. both pimco and agi are performing very nicely right now, and we think the fundamentals are so that we will be able to weigh any kind of environment and any kind of -- that could come our way in the next quarters. annmarie: thank you for joining us, giulio terzariol, cfo of allianz. today, the week's biggest data point comes in the wake of uscp i. we have been building to that all morning. 8:30 a.m. new york time. next, the european open. an interview with commerzbank's
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cao. and in a few minutes, anna edwards will bring you through u.k. gdp data. ♪
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anna: good morning. welcome to bloomberg markets: european open. mark cudmore joins us in singapore to take us through all the market action. the cash trade is just less than an hour away. stocks are stuck in the red as investors await crucial uscp i data. taiwan's benchmark posts a record drop. israel and


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