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tv   Bloomberg Markets  Bloomberg  April 28, 2021 1:00pm-2:00pm EDT

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can resume sitting and drinking at bars -- governor andrew cuomo says people can resume sitting and drinking at bars next week. they are eliminating the food and beverage curfew for outdoor dining on may 17 and one for indoor dining beginning may 31. the governor has been easing restrictions as covid-19 cases and hospitalizations drop. president biden will call on lawmakers to pass stricter gun safety laws during his first point address to congress tonight. the white house says mr. biden will urge action on two house passed bills aimed as strengthening background checks amid a string of gun violence across the united states. the measures have not mustered enough votes in the narrowly divided senate. the president's tax plane will do away with private equities' most lucrative tax break. fund managers enjoy carried interest.
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that tax break would go away under the president's plan. he also wants to raise the top rate on capital gains. a grim milestone for india. the number of deaths per coronavirus went over 200,000, a 50 2% increase in infections outweighing declines in most of the regions. new global cases of coronavirus rose for the ninth straight week i a record 5.7 million -- we could a record of 5.7 million. -- by a record of 5.7 million. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on "bloomberg quicktake," powered by over 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> it is 1:00 p.m. in new york, 70 5 p.m. in berlin and 1:00
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a.m. in hong kong. i am matt miller and here are the top stories from around the world. counting you down to the fomc race decision due out in less than an hour. we discussed the hales of the u.s. economy and how it compares to economies around the world. and we will focus on the health of the consumer as shop if i shares sore after the company crushed revenue and earnings expectation. we will speak to the shop if i president. 00 s-- shopify president. as consumer show strength online, is he or she returning to restaurants? we ask the ceo of opentable what the data is telling us about the economic recovery and dining. let's get a check of the market. not a lot of market in stocks. we have seen the down more than 100 points down most of the session but the s&p is holding unchanged or around that level. the u.s. 10 year yield is up, sorry, the yield is down and the
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price is up. this is where the u.s. 10 year yield this training. bloomberg u.s. dollar index coming off of get -- off against a basket of currencies. new york crude rising by 1.7 percent, 64.01 of barrel -- a barrel. i want to dig deeper into these markets and start the countdown to the fed decision in less than an hour. joining us to discuss is katie gry feld. first off, we are not expecting much from the federal reserve. it looks like traders are still waiting for the release before they put on any big bets. >> honestly, there will not be much to write home about. do not expect them to touch rates or asset purchases. instead, we will be looking for breadcrumbs as to how powell is thinking about the recovery and what the timetable for a taper of the bond purchases might look like. he did say earlier this month
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the economy is at an inflection point but he has been adamant there is plenty of risk to the outlook. on paper -- tapering, how has said they are not moving until there has been substantial further progress. what that means is anyone's guess. there are no numbers attached that. bloomberg did survey economists and found the majority thinks the fed will announce some timetable for tapering by year-end. expect the fed chief to get plenty of questions on that in the press room. matt: so we do see yields rising here as investors sell the debt. the dollar is following. should we read anything into these daily moves? katie: i had a few notes in my inbox calling it a creep higher in 10 year yields. the 10 year yield is at 1.64 right now and has been a quiet move higher, even though it has been up 10 basis points in the last four days. i want to point out that is basically all breakevens driving
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that. the tenure breakeven rate, what the bond market is expecting for inflation, is at its highest level since 2013. if you look at real rates, which stripped out the effects of inflation, they have been dropping. 10 year real rates are on track for their biggest monthly drop since july. that is a pretty interesting dynamic going on. we add seen real rates driving the movement on treasury yields, but this handoff has been breakevens. as peak growth warnings start to shore little. matt: the gap between the tenure breakeven and core pce between inflation expectation and the core numbers at the fed -- that the fed watches is striking. i want to quickly ask about stocks. --and you are a big asset reporter. what does the earnings season look like so far from the vantage point of these mega tech
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-- mega caps? katie: it has been a strong earnings season, but you would not know by looking at the stock market. 85% of s&p 500 companies have seen an expectation so far, but they are -- they're one-day move is just -- their one-day move is just about flat. the bar was set so high going into this earnings season, if you look at tech eps revisions in particular, they have been skyrocketing since june. even though a lot of these companies, big tech included, has been beating expectations, it has not been by a big enough margin to get traders or markets excited about it. matt: katie, thank you for joining us. katie greifeld there with a look at what is going on in the markets at large. let's dig further into the stock picture with our stock of the hour, pinterest growth continues as the first quarter -- in the
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first quarter as users rose 30%. the company indicates next quarter will be a different story. ritika gupta is here to explain. >> pinterest pummeled today. the shares down as much as 14% despite the fact it had good results here. revenue up 78% year-over-year. it beat on the top and bottom line estimates. it is user growth numbers that are very much in focus here. the monthly average user is up 30% -- users is up 30% but the second quarter is where the concern is. the company says they expect that to be around flat. they experienced the pull forward with user growth numbers. we talked about that with netflix and not so surprising this idea of reopening means people spending less time online. celeste time on the platform, especially here in the u.s. -- so less time on the platform, especially in the u.s. this is the most valuable market, accounting for about 80%
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of its revenue. while it is expanding, the u.s. is still dominating for this company, but it still had a very good year as well. the shares were up some more than 200% over the past year, far beating the likes of facebook and twitter. today, it looks like it is giving it's crown up to snap. matt: pinterest and snap. is this a pinterest problem or is this a market-wide problem? ritika: it is market-wide. we talked about this with netflix and that kind of warning for all of these other stocks, this user growth number is very much in focus. it did warn about this, so i'm not sure why investors are so surprised. we are seeing this with a host of other stocks today as well. viacom, discovery down sharply as well. earnings have been coming in hot, they have been good, but
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after what has been a stellar year, it is hard in comparison -- hard to pale in comparison. matt: ritika gupta with the stock of the hour. coming up, shopify soaring in today's session. we will speak to the president, harley finkselstein, on the big earnings beat and showing the big e-commerce boom might not slow down when shops open back up. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets," i am matt miller. we continue to count you down to the fomc decision coming at the top of the hour, and we are
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going to bring you special coverage of that, president biden's speech as well, later on in the programming. you have the fed coming up at 2:00, and later on, 8:30, our special coverage it a president biden addressing to the joint session of congress. definitely stay tuned to bloomberg all evening long. the stock now about online shopping. shop a fire reported its first quarter earnings today, smashing estimates across the board. that sent stocks soaring. a be more importantly, it gave us an indicator on how sticky online shopping will be as we reopen. joining us now is the shop i president, harley finkelstein, to talk about what they have experienced. appreciate your time. it looks like as brick-and-mortar stores are opening up again, at least customers that use a shop if i
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-- shopify merchants are still doing online deals, is that the case? harley: let's talk first about shopify and then the macro trends. shopify is the retail operating system behind consumer favored brands. we only succeed when our murchison -- merchants succeed. we are bringing the best tools to entrepreneurs so they can grow faster. i think that is strong and first quarter. in terms of revenue accelerated, one hundred 10% year-over-year to $988 million in the first year. to put that in perspective, q1 exceeded q4 of last year. that is an important achievement given we typically see a seasonal decline quarter after quarter off of the holiday season. we did not see that this year. the second piece is sales by our merchants accelerated 114% to 37 billion in q1 alone. that means for every one dollar shop if i -- shopify makes, our
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merchants generate four dollars. first, we see small businesses are the rebuilders of the economy and that is something we are excited about. in 2020, and entropy newer made their first sale every 28 seconds on chop of five compared to every minute in 2019. our u.s. merchants are 9% of total e-commerce. in terms of shopify, we think where there is a rare breed where we were this wonderful pandemic story, and we are transitioning to being a global recovery story as well as countries open up and we see growth continuing well beyond this pandemic. matt: how do companies work with brick-and-mortar and shopify? are people going to bother going back into stores? are they only get a buy stuff online? do you see a hybrid shopping model going forward? harley: a couple things. first, the center of gravity in terms of retail has shifted from predominantly online -- off-line to online. online will be the center of gravity for retail going
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forward. that does not mean brick-and-mortar will not play a role, that market place will not play a role, social media platforms one play role. a better way to think of shopify than an e-commerce provider, which is what we are known for, we have more than one point 7 million merchants and online stores on shopify, is as a retail operating system, where a retail operating system, where emergent, brand, business has a single back-office to run the entirety of their retail operation. physical retail will play a role. it is the reason we have invested so much money in our topsail product, because we want more of our merchants cross sell across any channel where there consumer might be. i think we can talk a lot about these mega direct to consumer success stories. obviously, those are really exciting. we talk about beyond yoga and jim shark, and others, but we also see legacy brands coming to shopify. we saw lego and lauren taylor, who has been around since 1826,
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and we saw hines and hallmark also come to shopify. on one side of the spectrum, you create more entrepreneurs. on the other side, very large established brands coming to shopify to get involved in the future of retail, which is retail everywhere. matt: which stores are the stickiest online? i can imagine if i am buying household goods online, i'm going to keep doing that. if i'm buying clothing online that i need to try on, i may go to a brick-and-mortar store for that occasionally. which sectors are you seeing the stickiest online usage? harley: to be clear, apparel is a big one, as you point out. so is products for the home. what is really important, the brands that are doing well, that are becoming category leaders in their space like beyond yoga or others for example or kylie cosmetics, they have a deep
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understanding of what the consumer wants. they want to sell to matt, they have to have a greate experience but also maybe add a great integration into tiktok or instagram. if they want to sell to me, they have to have to -- they have to have a great online store. we think the future of retail is retail everywhere. we want to provide was shopify that you can sell across one channel. as your business develops, we want to see you selling across a bunch of different channels wherever your consumers might be. i think all of that has led to shopify and the stores being about 9% of total e-commerce in the united states. that will not change. we have interesting insights on that, because when you look at places like australia or new zealand where things have really opened up, we are not seeing any slowdown in gmb and we see acceleration. the ship that happened to the pandemic, this massive digitalization of retail we are never going back to the
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that is what consumers are looking for. the majority of those are powered by shopify. matt: thanks so much for joining us. harley finkelstein is the president of shopify, the stock after today's earnings up 11%. now, i do something that caught our eye. deutsche bank having a bit of a different approach than jp morgan when it comes to getting workers back into the office. the frankford based bank is working on plans to allow staff to work from home for up to three days a week from now on. it would be the most flexible return to office policies among the international banks. one of the things we have seen in europe that we have not really seen on wall street is these big banks are looking to aggressively cut costs, one of the ways they are doing it is by reducing commercial real estate expenses. still ahead, we are going to talk about the fed. 40 more minutes until we get that release.
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in president biden's tax plans. he addresses a joint session of congress tonight. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
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matt: this is "bloomberg markets." i am matt miller. the fomc decision is due at the top of the hour and we will hear from fed chair jay powell on the state of the u.s. economy. but how does it compare to the economic recovery that we are seeing in the world's second largest and fastest growing economy in china? joining us for more insight is andy brown, bloomberg's new economy forum editorial director. andy, you have a ton of experience covering the chinese economy. and as we all witnessed with what is going on in the u.s., it will be great to get from you some intel on how china's recovery is going.
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same massive multitrillion dollar fiscal stimulus injections we have. yet, they handled the virus a little better. is that the key to their recovery? andy: exactly. first of all, thank you for having me on the show. it is great to be with you. yes, what we have seen in china is a v-shaped recovery. this is a direct consequence of the reality that china, even though covid-19 went airborne in china, this was the epicenter, where we had the first outbreak, the chinese handled it so much better than basically america did. it was not obvious day would get it right, but they did. they decided to contain. they decided to put a quarantine around wuhan, a city of 11 million people. people in the west were horrified. it is not going to work, and it did. they tracked the case is, mass surveillance.
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it would not happen in a democratic society, but they beat covid-19. now, they are first in to the covid travail, economic travail, in first out. matt: -- and first out. matt: we thought it was soldier coney and at first, these lockdown, and then the western world followed suit. probably would have done the surveillance if we would have gotten past the privacy barriers. i guess that is the benefit of a command economy. on the other hand, you heard a lot of western business leaders saying we need to rethink our supply chain. maybe we need to be reassuring a lot of the production that we have outsourced to asia, china and particular. is that happening, or was that a lot of talk in the heart of the pandemic? andy: i think it is happening in certain sectors. it is happening in ppe. you really don't want all your ppe in china. but i think this idea of
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re-shoring is way overblown. the u.s. chamber of commerce in beijing, they constant polder members, what are your investment intentions. -- poll their members, what are your investment intentions? they see where it has expanded and it is hard to replace china as a manufacturing center. clustering effect and amazing infrastructure that they have in china, it is what they have been doing for the last 20 years. the companies that come back to the u.s., they're all skilled engineers, skilled technicians. why? because china has been the workshop of the world for the last 20 to 30 years. all of that talent and ability, and the know-how might go across the pacific to china. the americans taught the chinese how to do it. they took the factories over there and took the know-how with them. matt: how important is -- china has been the manufacturer of the world, but it looks like they
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are starting to turn their economy more in words, -- inwards, counting on domestic growth. is that the case, and how well do you think they are doing at that? andy: this is the mantra, right? they talk about dual circulation and the intention, clearly, is to become self-sufficient. particularly in those areas of technology, which they regard as chokepoint technologies. the most important of those being semiconductors. whether or not the billions and billions of dollars they are investing in new technology will pay off and they will actually be able to get self-sufficiency. but yeah, they are looking inward. the open door, as they used to call it, is closing. matt: andy, great to get some time with you. i look forward to seeing you. we will do this segment every
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week, so we will get your insight, your unique insight on the growth of that economy and how it integrates with the growth over here, whether we see that continued integration or whether we see a little bit of a bifurcation will be interesting. andrew browne of bloomberg new economy forum. check out the new economy daily from bloomberg economics. it focuses on what is driving the global economy and what it means for policymakers, businesses, investors, and for yourself. sign up for the new economy news letter at bloomberg.com. coming up, tracking the u.s. restaurant recovery. that's got to be going a lot better than what we see over here. open tables, time reservation data has been in the spotlight over the last year as economists worked to track --
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we are now in the early stages of sustainability revolution.
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>>, mark compton. resident biden will unveil --
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president biden will unveil up plan and it will be paid for in part by the highest tax hike in decades. the child tax credit would be extended. fund managers would lose their caret -- carried interest and the tax rate for individuals will go back to 39 point 6%. the european union executive -- 39.6%. the european commission says the firm failed to respect delivery -- vaccine delivery commitments. astrazeneca had hoped to deliver , but only 30 million were sent. it says it will strongly defend itself in court.
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greece's prime minister is encouraging elderly residents to get the vaccine. greece's vaccination program has remained in line with the european union average, but that's are higher and the number of covid-19 patients requiring treatment is at its highest level since the start of the pandemic. nasa says michael collins has died. in a statement, nasa called him "a true pioneer." mr. collins became known as the forgotten after not because of his discrete but pivotal role in the mission. he was a pilot for pilot 11 -- four apollo 11 -- he was a pilot for apollo 11.
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global news -- global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. >> i'm amanda lange. welcome to numbered markets. matt: i'm matt miller. here are the top stories we are following for you from around the world. count down to the fed. it less than 30 minutes to go. we will bring you everything you need to know ahead of the release. our consumers returning to restaurants.
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we will ask the ceo of opentable and we will bring you the dank -- the details of president biden's massive family aided plan funded in part by the largest tax increases on wealthy americans in decades. a quick check on the major averages. >> a lot of nothing. we are seeing earning driven stories today. energy can occasions -- amanda: things like microsoft down 3% versus googles 4% gain. it definitely some action in terms of individual stocks and what they are reporting. it's not 10 year that we will be
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watching. the question will be in that q and a, when you start talking about things. the fed is watching the recovery . real-time information like mobility data and restaurant reservations. they also rely on things like opentable. debbie soo is the ceo of opentable. do you see parts of america reopen? -- as you see parts of america reopen, how do you see that in your data? >> we publish the state of the industry dashboard which showed daily dining activity compared
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to pre-pandemic times. what we are seeing is dining in the u.s. is at about 90% of what it was in 2019. 80% of the restaurants and -- restaurants and opentable are open and taking restaurants. matt: the narrative in terms of new york is that the restaurant industry was dead to the world and was never coming back. i can't understand why any logical person would assume that. what kind of bounce back do you see in the big apple? >> the big apple has been one of the slower recovery markets. what we have seen in the data is when local restrictions list the people feel safe dining out again, the dining demand come -- comes roaring back.
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cities like new york or san francisco with very dense populations, those cities have shown a slower recovery. it -- matt: i saw today from cuomo that he is going to allow outdoor dining. i would assume just like here in berlin, just like in london, like in any fairly wealthy environment as soon as people are allowed they are going to flood into these restaurants. you won't be able to get a reservation. >> as soon as it announced that its went to be allowed, we see that day reservation activity picked up for sometime in the future. you have cities like boston where it is more open. you cannot get a reservation. you have to do it a few weeks in
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advance. dining is coming back and coming back strong. you mentioned dining and that has been a savior for many restaurant tours. -- it has been a savior for many restaurant owners. amanda: i know you are collecting some of this data. the sentiment around risk. as well as americans vaccinations, the pandemic is not over. there still is a risk even for the vaccinated especially the partially vaccinated. is it still a risk that restaurants are going to have to deal with in terms of safety precautions. >> safety is still foremost on people's minds.
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we launched a feature called safety precautions. it allows restaurants to very clearly state on the restaurant profile page exactly what precautions they are taking weather that table is in seeing, hand sanitizing, contactless pay, contactless ordering, checking in without a host. all of that is posted on the page -- on the profile page. customers can see with the restaurant is offering and gauge risk for themselves. matt: one of the differences i can imagine, debbie, is i have never really cooked very much before. over the last year, i have actually started doing it. i really enjoy it. i'm very lazy, nonetheless. i'm sure i'm going to go back and restaurants five or six days a week again. are other people going to say i don't need to spend that much money eating out and i actually enjoyed my time in the kitchen.
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>> i love that you love to cook. i've also had to do a lot of cooking during this pandemic much to the detriment of my family and myself. i cannot wait restaurants to be open. when we did our recent survey, out of the thousands of diners more than half were planning on dining out again and resuming their pre-pandemic dining activity. you mentioned cooking. take out, i imagine, has been present in your life as much as it has been present in my life. that is also a trend we are seeing. we solve restaurants never consider take out as an -- we saw restaurants never consider take-out as an option. for diners, it's been a lifesaver for someone like me who is really challenged in the kitchen. we are going to see some trends that we've seen during the pandemic continue to persist. the need for connections, the
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need for going out and sharing a meal with someone face-to-face, humans are social creatures. that's why you see the demand pick up so quickly when restrictions left. we want to be together. we want to be outside. we want to be enjoying that new chef and that new dish. and i think the data is showing that. amanda: what is the data showing about the number of restaurants that have survived? this is volatile business at times so, how many of your clients have disappeared? >> we came out early on the pandemic predicting and our data is showing in the u.s. the story is hopeful. we have about 80% of restaurants in the u.s. on opentable that are open and taking reservations. 20% have gone dark and silent.
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we are hoping as restrictions left and restaurants are able to prdema and come back, that we will see those restaurants come back. the unfortunate thing is we have lost a lot of restaurants. that local spot that you love was just not able to survive. we will have new ones come in and take their place, what this industry has been through so much and it's encouraging to see signs of growth that we are seeing. let's not forget that it's been a really rough year for the restaurant industry. matt: it's been awful. i had to chuckle because we were looking at a chart that we overlaid on the screen u.s. opentable bookings versus germany opentable booking. and germany, we flatlined because the government shutdown that sector of the economy. you can still get take away. i use it a lot. but i think you would get
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arrested if anyone saw you inside a restaurant or even eating outside at this point. it's great to have you on the program. >> i'm saying germinate is -- germany is the initial team case . when we saw the vaccinations picked up in the u.s., that's when you saw the divergent. we are rooting for germany and we are rooting for you and lynn. matt: thank you very -- rooting for you in berlin. matt: thank you very much. debbie soo getting us some really important intel. president biden announces his tax plan in an address. we are going to get you inside from a citigroup economists. what tax hike could mean for the economy. are they want to start economic growth? we haven't heard that from anyone. this is bloomberg.
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matt: as a central bank moves forward area at one factor it will have to take into account as president biden's plan for huge stimulus and a major tax overhaul. the president will be unveiling these new moves officially when he delivers his first address to a joint session to congress tonight. many parts of the plan are already known. joining us to discuss is veronica clark. she is citigroup economists. when i was a kid, there were freshwater economists.
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austrian school, conservative supply-side economists. they seem to be all gone. now the most influential economists in the world are all saltwater, very must keynesian. is there opposition to tax increases on the capital gains side? >> we definitely are still hearing opposition from republicans. matt: -- amanda: we have some hints that by the end of 2000 when he won, some wants to see -- of 2020 one, some wants to see that headline cpi come down. >> the main thing we are looking
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for in the meeting today is the sense of optimism that we've heard for the past couple of weeks. we are entering this. of stronger growth, stronger inflation. the language could be upgraded to mention that we are up, but the quality around that is that it won't return. matt: transitory. transitory. it transitory. i'm what to count how may times we hear that or some reiteration of the word. veronica, the fed isn't expected to do much now. when are we going to hear actual tapering? >> the next shift we are waiting for is the signal wellhead -- signal well ahead. we are expecting that to come next year, as early as the
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september meeting with tapering starting in q4. probably not this meeting, but they could start to signal that. amanda:
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massive spending on its mind and you are going to have to expect to answer from president biden. how do you think the fed walk that line? it has massive influence on what the fed can and cannot do. >> i'm certainly sure we will hear powell say that the fed has no input on fiscal policy. definitely would be an upside risk. everything we have on the table right now is just a proposal none of this is been legislated. matt: how much is likely to be legislated? veronica clark. totally my bad. we've got a really global show. sometimes we are bouncing back and forth. great to get you in on the show today and i apologize for stepping on you. i'm sure twitter will light up with anger. we've got coverage of joe biden's address tonight. it's at 8:30 p.m. on bloomberg. you can watch it live. the speech is at 9:00 u.s. time. amanda? amanda: for what it's worth here in canada, justin trudeau government survived a confidence vote on a big-budget -- big budget that passed.
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>> what we said in the budget was that now is the time that we need to finish the fight against covid and that does cost money. canada being canada, we are proud of our reputation. that is something i would say is built into canada's dna. in this budget, we show from this year 21, 22, 25, 26 declining following to 49.2% in
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25, 26. we are confident that the fiscal trek we have put forward is reasonable and sustainable. ♪
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amanda: this is bloomberg markets. we are just a few minutes away from the decision. nobody expects anything super surprising, but given your insight what you're looking for. -- but give us insight on what you're looking for. >> fairly cut and dry. there will be some obviously that's obvious acknowledgment -- obvious acknowledgment. considerable risks to the
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economy, to the economic outlook from the health crisis. the potential he be toned down. matt: i saw more of a political story. president biden is being urged by a group of people called fed up to rework the federal reserve. is there any chance that powell loses his seat? >> powell be up for renomination in february of next year. i think it would be a grave mistake to remove the person who speared the u.s. -- who steered the u.s. economy. a broader economic recovery than it has historically. that should a large -- that
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should come into a large degree, satisfy critics. amanda: are you looking for anything market moving? if so, what would it be? >> any hands on the taper, especially sequencing on whether the fed might taper mortgages. matt: thanks very much for joining us. always great to talk to our chief economist. we are just about four minutes away from getting those lines across the federal reserve. and a half, we will get the press conference. then later tonight you will have president biden addressing the joint session. we are all across it. for amanda lang, and matt miller. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> this is the fed.
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we are awaiting the federal reserve decision since the last meeting of the vaccination rollout. caroline: economists see, -- let's go live to mike with the decision. >> there is no news in the fed statement. this is one of the least changed statements i can remember from the federal reserve. there is no change in rates, nope adjustment -- no adjustment to the qe program. the fed focused on changing their economic outlook for the economy. their view on the economy a minor tweak. amid progress of vaccinations and stronger policy support, indicators of strong economic activity have strengthened.
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