tv Bloomberg Markets Americas Bloomberg April 26, 2021 10:00am-11:01am EDT
guy: monday the 26th of april. from london, i'm guy johnson. kailey leinz is a new york. alix steel is out today. that's the bad news. the good news is she is now fully vaccinated. i know it can be hard, kayl -- hard, kailey. kailey: that is definitely the good news. it is monday i had of a massive week in the u.s. you have megacap tech earnings. you have a federal reserve decision and president biden's address to congress, so a lot of potential catalysts. we are not seeing any major positions put on ahead of that. we are just up about 0.25% on the s&p 500. in the bond market, yields are off session highs after that mess on durable goods data earlier this morning. right now we are at 1.56% on the
10 year treasuries. the real action is in the commodities. copper at the highest level since 2011. you are seeing some pretty big moves in agricultural commodities as well. my eye is on bitcoin. after a brutal week last week, we are back above $53,000. some of those dip buyers coming in. i mentioned a lot of catalysts this week. tesla kicking off a big week. abigail doolittle is here with more on what to expect. abigail: this week, we have nearly $19 trillion worth of market cap in companies reporting, equal to all of the everone weeks together. it has everything to do with the mega caps. tonight tesla, tomorrow bet, then we have -- tomorrow alphabet, then we have amazon, facebook, microsoft.
interestingly, we don't actually have the most list stands going into this week. if we going to the bloomberg terminal and take a look at the outflows on the qqq's, last week there were five consecutive days of outflows, the most going all the way back to 2000. that's not a lot of confidence on the part of investors in terms of what we are going to see out of tesla, apple, amazon, facebook, and so on. they are selling those stocks the way they did in 2000. last week wasn't easier -- excuse me, last year was an easy comp because it was the start of the pandemic, so it is going to be critical to listen to what this management companies say. tesla already preannounced, as they always do, in terms of deliveries. record deliveries, 185,000 vehicles delivered in the first quarter, exceeding the estimates. we are going to be seeing a very big move here. this is typically the case for
tesla. the implied action after their report is 6% up or 6% down. we don't know. but when you put that together with the outflows in the qqqs, if traders are right, or maybe they are taking some chips off the table, it will maybe be to the down tied. but wait -- to the downside. but we won't know that after the bell. later this week, we take a look at some of the moose or other companies. expected to be a 2% to 4% move for those companies, relative to the 6% implied volatility move for tesla. but these companies are so big, when we put that into but -- in terms of market cap, if apple does move up or down after earnings, that is an $83 billion move in market cap. that is chipotle mexican grill times two. so that could happen after apple's report on wednesday. stay tuned. it could be potentially a wild
ride, especially based on what these options insights are saying, and last week's biggs flows -- last week's biggs flows out of the big ash last week's big flows -- last week's biggs flows -- last week's big flows out of the big tech etf's. guy: we will have to wait and watch. let's talk about volatility. monica dicenso is joining us to give her take on it, j.p. morgan chase head of u.s. equity strategy. lots of tech earnings. lots of earnings. today we've got the fed as well, plus the president going to capitol hill. buy or sell volatility with week? which side of the fence are you on? monica: i still like selling it. we continue to see that when people anticipate big events, they don't actually realize as exciting as people are hoping for, maybe because we are all stuck at home looking for a
little excitement. that has been the story over the last few months, and it continues to be a trait i like -- a trade i like. recall how well these stocks have done over the last year. i think it is normal to see people managing risk a little bit into a big earnings week like this, and certainly into the summer, when things can get a little slower and liquidity is lighter. kailey: you talked about market having anticipated things. when talking about anticipation, it seems that large parts of the equity market are priced to perfection at this point. so what kind of upside catalyst can earnings be if we have already priced in what some are calling peak earnings growth? monica: that is why personally, i have trouble arguing for a meaningful move higher over the next few months. when i look at what earnings bring, which is a chance for heightened volatility and to potentially do some trades around that, i prefer the volatility trade rather than playing for a big gap higher.
i think probably the next leg for some of these will be into 2022, when the question becomes how do these look anymore normalized world again. by the way, we still expect we'll digit earnings next year, and we think that will support solid equity returns, but we do have to temper expectations because valuations are near the high-end of where you would expect them to be for where we are from an economic recovery standpoint. guy: you talk about a big move higher. let's talk about the big move lower. the sell in may narrative. what are you telling your clients right now? this market has had a great run. do i need to build some protection into my portfolio? you are selling volatility right now. how do i provide that risk protection? do i need more of it? monica: selling volatility near-term around earnings, we still like that trade. as you think about moving into the summer, think about where we
were from a volatility standpoint last year. it is significantly lower than we were going into last summer, and i would argue the risks don't look as scary, so it is time probably to think about taking a little bit of your chips off the table and buying some insurance. we have been doing that in multiple ways. you can look at put spread's. you can look at being locked in at a lower level. that can actually cheapen the protection trade quite a bit. kailey: one way people have hedged traditionally is in fixed income, and u.s. treasuries, for example. that hasn't necessarily worked to your benefit recently. but are we going to see the correlation come back between when treasury yields go higher, big tech cells off? or is that narrative over now? monica: i think directionally, that still makes sense. i just inc. it is tough near-term to assume that that is going to be the case.
most of our exposure for people looking for more significant returns, still a lot of equities within the u.s. and/or overseas, and i don't necessarily want to take all of that off. i would also highlight concerns around tax rates, things like that. i think back to where we were in the fall, going back to the election, going back to october. the u.s. is up 25% from october, and i had a lot of people worried then about exposure into the election, what that could mean from tax hikes, etc., and none of that has come to fruition. guy: we may see it happen this time. i really fascinated to hear what the president has to say later this week. what i really want to talk about is inflation. kailey start of the show talking about what is happening. there are pockets around the
united states where it is clear they are labor shortages. do you still think the market is underpricing inflation here? what is your outlook in terms of inflation, and where do i want to be if i want to get the biggest bang for my buck? monica: if you go back to a year ago, where people were most comfortable coming out of the downturn, things like u.s. large-cap equities, now people understand the point that growth is back and there's a lot of demand for building, different types of infra structure spending, etc. we have seen more interest in parts of emerging markets. looking at commodities out right , certainly people are looking to oil the energy market -- looking to oil. the energy market is another way to do that. kailey: oil getting hit with all of the virus concerns because it is a major importer. monica, thank you very much.
ritika: let's check in on the bloomberg first word news. in india, coronavirus infections hit a record high for the third day in a row. overcrowded hospitals are turning away patients because they are running out of oxygen and beds. the u.s. and europe have pledged to send aid. republicans may be willing to back as much as 900 billion
dollars in infrastructure spending. that would still be less than half of president biden's proposal. republican senator lindsey graham floated the proposal on fox news. graham also suggested deficit spending could be a way to avoid tax hikes links to the spending belt. in -- the spending bill. in russia, becoming is suspending the -- apple will speed up its plan to invest in the u.s. it will contribute $430 billion to the u.s. economy over the next five years and add 20 billion jobs. that includes everything from spending -- and add 20 million jobs. apple will create a new hub in north carolina's research triangle area.
global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. kailey: thank you. let's pick up on the news from apple, doubling down on investments in the u.s.. with us now from san francisco is bloomberg's ed ludlow. $430 billion. where is all of that going? ed: it is basically an expansion of the 2018 plan. when president trump was in office, apple announced this investment that basically expended their footprint. outside of cupertino, the company's headquarters, they want to add 5000 employees in san diego, southern california. they want to increase their headcount there. $1 billion for a new hub in north carolina, which is interesting. a lot of high-tech jobs there. they want to focus on r&d and things like machine learning and artificial intelligence. i think north carolina's governor has already taken to twitter. it is probably a big win for him to bring apple to that state. but it is interesting because
when you think about apple, youth inc. about california. they are making investments outside. they have this facility in austin where they hope to start moving employees by the end of this year. they are expanding their footprint in states like colorado and massachusetts. really, that is where the focus is. in terms of direct spend, very little. it is more about the ecosystem of suppliers that they are also tapping into. guy: i does want to come back to the math a little bit. you can't belittle these numbers because they are absolutely enormous. but how much of this is new, and how much of this is basically a little bit of addition? when i say a little bit, obviously i am talking about huge numbers, but in addition to the previous numbers? i does want to make sure the headline figure is a reflection of reality here. ed: when the news hit the bloomberg, i thought, hold on, i've heard about this before, and looked back to the story from 2018. at the time, president trump
very publicly took to twitter, to television, to say he had spoken to tim cook on the phone. president trump really played this up as a win. so not much of it is new. what happened is that in spite of the pandemic, 2020 was a very good year for apple financially. in the fourth quarter they registered $100 billion of revenue for the first time, and they are upping that 2018 investment. they are increasing the hiring target, upping the capex that they plan to spend, and expanding the footprint be the 15 states that they named. they did plan to do a new hub in the 2018 plan, but this time around we are learning that it is north carolina. kailey: you mentiking about president trump, but i wonder how much of this has a political tie-in because apple in the press release also pointed out they have paid $45 billion in taxes over the last five years. can you talk about that? ed: the political story is that apple, along with its big tech
appears, is in the spotlight because of president biden's proposals for taxing overseas profits. it has a fantastic story on the bloomberg over the weekend that between the egg for five faang stocks, they paid about $100 billion or recorded about $100 billion of overseas profit between them last year. bidens rules that are on the table now had been in place, apple probably would have paid about $4 billion more in taxes than it actually did. that is one thing. tim cook has been really neutral on the biden presidency since biden took office. you may remember he called out president trump on certain items throughout the course of his presidency, but since biden has taken office, we've only really had one incident where he said we don't get involved in politics. we are only interested on policy. that was a good spot on tax in the press release because that's one policy they are clearly very conscious of. guy: in terms of how this fits
into the narrative around chips as well, intel making a big investment into the united states, looking for more in terms of government assistance, what is apple doing? how much of this is software? how much of this is hardware? how much fits into the idea that the u.s. needs to produce chips at home, and apple is starting to do that for itself? maybe it wants to do that to mr. k as well -- maybe it wants to do that domestically as well. ed: we are not able to quantify that, but what has happened in the last 12 months or so is that apple has, like other big tech companies including google and amazon, moved towards designing its own chips, using its own in house processors where historically, they have used intel. that is largely how the chip industry has worked in the past. we refer to chipmakers what qualcomm, but really, those guys just design and licensed chips.
what apple is moving to is to design its own and then look to third-party manufacturers to fabricate them. that is really part of what is shaking up the chip supply chain. it is one reason why intel moved so aggressively with that $20 billion investment plan, not just to double down on manufacturing its own chips, but to launch its own foundry business where it can make the designs of others, including its own customers or existing customers like apple. kailey: i want to focus on the financials of the company. we just had a chart on the screen that showed its cash pile , something like $200 billion. despite that, we have also seen apple cap the debt markets over the last year just because borrowing costs are cheap. can you talk me through the financing of this investment? could we see apple come to the debt markets yet again? ed: we don't have much reaction this morning, but between may of last year and february, the last time apple tapped u.s. investment grade markets, the last was about $4 billion.
that was the first time since 2017 that apple returned to the market more than once in a 12 month period. they have basically taken advantage of cheap financing. the only reaction we have really is from our bloomberg intelligence colleagues, saying if you look at the free cash flow model for the next five years, it's around $450 billion over that period. this proposal is 430 billion dollars. not all of it is direct capex anyway, so it looks like apple is en route health compared to its peers. the cash balance apple has is $200 billion. it dwarfs the rest of big tech. i don't think there are any concerns that this will be a disruptive move by apple. if anything, the expectation is that we will see more buybacks and greater dividends to come. guy: great stuff, ed. thank you very much. ed has a really busy day today. tune into bloomberg green a little bit later on. he's going to be interviewing --
ritika: it's time for the bloomberg business flash. netflix confirmed it is holding talks to acquire the vitamin maker bountiful. kkr had been planning an ipo valuing bountiful at more than $6 billion. a sale could preempt the ipo. sanofi has agreed to help make up to do hundred million doses of moderna's coronavirus vaccine. it has already prepared -- it would prepare vaccine solutions
and package it. at the oscars, chloe zhao became the first woman of color to win best director for "nomadland." kailey: i must admit, i did not see "nomadland." i think i had only seen one film non-native this year, but it is a big win for disney, and also a big win for the oscars diversity effort and that you have the second woman ever to win best director, and the first chinese and asian woman to win that award. guy: i thing a huge step forward certainly from last year. i think probably the reason why maybe you haven't seen as many of these movies is a fundament a problem the industry faces right now, and that is that people can't and haven't been able to go to movie theaters. as that starts to change, maybe you will get to see more movies. but i do wonder whether winning the oscar this year from a financial point of view is going to have the same impact that it normally would.
it is interesting to see netflix didn't get some of the big ones, but it got a lot, and i think we have yet to figure out the full implications of the pandemic on how this industry moves forward. kailey: your point, it won seven awards. it did not get best picture which is what netlist has been vying for for some time. to your point, i feel like because i know all of these movies are available on streaming, i just feel like i have time. i don't have to rush to a theater and go see it in a box office, so i can catch up with everybody else. it is a very interesting conversation. i wonder post pandemic how this conversation is going to change, when i have the option to go to a theater. am i going to do that, or stick with my streaming options? guy: i think there's going to be a bit of sticker shock as well. are you going to pay up? because going to the movie theater can be a big experience financially. certainly, i have a family of four. that is an expensive thing to do. maybe, as you say, you change
the narrative a little bit. i thought it was a big deal at the end with anthony hopkins winning. i think he was surprised. the fact that he had to post a speech the next morning speaks to that. kailey: have you seen "my octopus teacher?" that's the other one everyone was buzzing about. guy: i'm like you, i feel like i haven't seen any of these movies. i am desperate to see more movies at the moment. it does feel as if there is a dearth of things to go out and watch. in terms of the virus rollout, the vaccine rollout and the impact on the virus, we are going to talk to dr. ziyad al-aly next. ♪
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policy right now with you, but that is something that certainly is going to be actively considered. guy: dr. anthony fauci speaking about the u.s. stockpile doses -- the u.s. sending stockpile doses of the astrazeneca vaccine to india. clearly, they need all the assistance it can get. sam fazeli, bloomberg intelligence senior pharmaceuticals analyst, joining us now. what is your assessment of the latest numbers we are seeing out of india? we talk last week about the chart basically going vertical. any sign that any of the action is having an impact at this point? sam: it is very early to tell. day after day, the numbers are higher. so you need to see that to start to turn, and then as you know sometimes with this virus, it looks like it has turned a corner, but you are back to a
growth phase again. i just hope that sooner or later , this rapid rise runs out of steam for the sake of the people who are obviously suffering severely there. i think i am avon beginning to hear -- i'm even beginning to hear some of my friends there knowing people who have been touched by it which is awful. kailey: it is very emotional, of course. what we are seeing in india is very different than what we are seeing in western countries. here in the u.s., you have more than half of people getting at least one shot. it is picking up in europe. how big of a concern is what is going on in india for western countries? could new varianta there -- could new variants there come back and reinfected populations in the west? sam: one of the key issues is that this pandemic by definition is not over until every region, every country has managed to get
its population vaccinated. as regards to variants, i have yet to see anyone that seems to suggest it is going to be particularly troublesome in terms of reinfection. remember, we have been saying all along that it is not just an infection, but what matters is whether it is severe enough to cause hospitalizations and deaths. we haven't seen that. there is data that just published that shows that this particular variant is actually quite responsive to the vaccine induced antibodies in vaccinated people. guy: you bring up the issue of vaccines. ursula von der leyen, the european commission president, spoke to the new york times sunday, suggesting that the e.u. will be opening its doors to u.s. travelers. but that brings on the question of which vaccines are going to be acceptable to the eu, to the united states.
what can you tell us about the degree of commonality that exists? do you think the united states and europe will be prepared to accept, say, the chinese vaccine, or the sputnik vaccine, and the same way they are the other vaccines that are currently cleared for use in those regions? sam: i think that the hint was in some of the commentary that came from the eu, and that was that it would probably be vaccines which have already been approved in the european union, so that would be johnson & johnson, astrazeneca, moderna, pfizer/biontech. if the u.s. has the same, that might be an interesting question because that has not been approved by the fda, and it may therefore he won they should consider for filing to just pave the way for that. otherwise, you and i will not be able to easily go to the u.s.
putting that aside, until the chinese or the sputnik vaccine go through the regulatory process in each country, by that notion i just suggested, then people vaccinated would not qualify to enter. kailey: really interesting stuff. sam fazeli, bloomberg senior pharmaceuticals analyst. we want to welcome now doctors a god -- welcome now dr. ziyad al-aly. it is great to have you with us. i just went to get your reaction to what we were just discussing with our bloomberg analyst about what is happening in india. aside from the humanitarian aspect, because obviously we can all feel that, how worried are you about what it means for the trajectory of the pandemic and how it impacts us here in the u.s.? dr. al-aly: first, thank you for having me. the situation in india is very dire, and i think it is in the
interest of the united states to expand as much -- to extend as much help as possible to try to curb and reduce the burden of virus transmission. we think the united states should send as much as possible to india as soon as possible. that should also include diagnostic tests, oxygen producing capacity, and the primary ingredients, lifting the ban on exporting the primary ingredients to make vaccine. the best way to sustainably curb transmission and reduce the burden of the virus is to vaccinate as many people as possible as fast as possible. that is really why vaccine production in india is naturally dependent on gradients -- on ingredients, some of which are banned from being exported from the united states at this time. we have all heard that the united states is also sitting on tens of millions of doses of the astrazeneca vaccine. those could be made available as
soon as possible to help the vaccination effort. guy: what about the ip that goes with it? do you think we should be freeing that up as well? this is a global effort. we are worried about variants. they could get round the vaccines that we in the west are now vaccinated with and re-expose us to the risk of covid. how important is the vaccine, and how important is it that we tell people how to make the vaccine? dr. al-aly: there are ways of sharing knowledge and still protecting intellectual property, protect the rights of the inventors. i think we need to develop a mechanism to have a win-win situation where we can protect the people, protect the vaccine, and also serve humanity because it is not just in the interest of the united states to live to
this global pandemic. this is a global world. you hear this a lot, but it is absolutely true, no one is safe until everybody is safe. what is happening in india is a humanitarian disaster, and should require cooperation from all nations, including the united states. kailey: and of course, access to the vaccine is something that can go a long way to help the situation in india. here in the u.s., we have access to the vaccine. if anything, we have an oversupply of it, and get it seems demand is waning. what do you attribute that to? sam: i think a lot of -- dr. al-aly: i think a lot of misinformation, a lot have held beliefs that things are the castings in the vaccine may be harmful to health. i think we should mean will -- we should be more proactive about it. this is an all hands on deck situation. every sector in society -- the government should be engaged in
every sector of society in order to increase vaccination rates. that includes nonprofit institutions, religious institutions. it is very important. it would also include corporate america. every sector of society should be engaged in promoting vaccination efforts, not just the federal government or state government or local government. it should be the collective effort of everybody. so whatever the situation where we should have all hands on deck , it means everybody should do their part in the situation. guy: you have done some pioneering work on what is happening with long covid. let's talk about that for just a moment. can you quantify for me the health impact that long covid is likely to have? we talk often on this program about the fact that the u.s. is
going to recover from covid. for many people, that is simply not true. i wonder if you can quantify it for me so we can get an understanding of the scale of the issue. dr. al-aly: this is absolutely correct. when we say recovery from covid, it is recovery from acute covid. but many go on to experience long-term symptoms that don't really go away. shortness of breath, cough, more alarmingly, new onset chronic diseases, including heart disease, brain problems, stroke, kidney disease, liver disease, and other manifestations. new onset diabetes, for example. these are chronic conditions that do not go away. so we are seeing that acute covid is really the tip of the iceberg. what is beneath the iceberg is long-term morbidities that affect it percent to 10% of the people that were affected with
covid. that burden is substantial and requires early proactive measures by all segments of society, including health care systems, to deal with the long-term consequent is about -- long-term consequence is of that. kailey: how does the vaccine factor into that? is it a treatment for long-haulers? dr. al-aly: well, the best way to avoid long haul syndrome is to avoid covid itself. the best way to avoid covid is to get the vaccine. people who have already got covid, there are anecdotal observations here, not really in definitive studies, that the vaccine might help with some symptoms, that it might ameliorate or improve some symptoms. it is not really confirmed yet. is the subject of intense investigation by a lot of groups. guy: we are going to leave it there. really appreciate your time today. thank you so much for spending some of it with us. dr. ziyad al-aly, st. louis v.a.
medical center chief of research and develop. prime minister mario draghi is laying out how italy is going to utilize the next generation recovery fund is looking to spend. italy has a terrible track record of spending that comes from brussels. he can then maybe coordinate a future. if not, it could be one and done. it is a huge event in terms of the investment that is going to be coming here. kailey: we will have more on that over the next hour and change. coming up next, you're taking a look at a live shot of the bloomberg green summit. we will bring you the conversation with blackrock chairman and ceo larry fink, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
senior vice president. that is at 3:00 p.m. in new york, 8:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: a fantastic event running is bloomberg. it's take you to it now, the bloomberg green summit. erik schatzker is with larry fink, blackrock chairman and ceo. they are talking about the investment case for climate action. larry: change is disruptive, so we need to be careful in how we design this. this has to be done through enormous long-term planning for society to do this effectively and well. i look at this like i look at the pandemic. i want to just use a reference. i do believe the pandemic is a good metaphor for what is going on in sustainability.
the pandemic was an existential risk. it showed how fragile society is. when you step back and ask how society navigated over the last 12 month and segments of society have done very well, and segments of society have done very poorly, if you take that same type of metaphor for sustainability, the earth's health is deteriorating. so it is not like a new pandemic. we see it getting sicker, and we have to stop that disease curve for the earth. the sooner we start changing the course of carbon in our environment, the sooner we can stabilize our global earth
health. so this is a bigger task. but when you see the brilliance of technology and the brilliance of humanity, that we were able to get a vaccination in 10 months for the pandemic, i am absolutely optimistic that we will find the technologies to rapidly change the direction of the r's -- of the earth. but we are not at the beginning of the earth poor health -- the earth's poor health. we are rapidly accelerating the earth's health problems, so it is going to require much more deliberate planning, much more deliberate investments to do this. and it just can't be done by blackrock and other asset managers asking public companies to make changes. it has to be done across all
society, or we are lying to ourselves. we will not get this done. erik: so let me ask you this. we now have a very good idea of what president biden is going to do about the climate crisis. he wants to cut u.s. greenhouse gas emissions to half their 2005 level for the end of this decade. is that aggressive enough, or too ambitious? larry: well, there's 127 countries before we announced this that have already announced some form of initiative towards the reduction of greenhouse gases. unless there's changes in behaviors across all society, not just public companies, not just for disclosure of public companies, if there's not enough investments toward bringing down the green premium of these new technologies, this can't happen.
using an example, we had solar and wind technology 30 years ago , and it was really expensive. 50, 60 times -- 50%, 60% greater than the cost of coal. 30 years later, wind and solar is cheaper than coal. we don't have 30 years. so to do this is going to require an enormous change in technology. right now, biofuels are 50% higher than hydrocarbons. green hydrogen, depending on the plant, 30% to 50% higher. for us to do this and to continue to have economic growth , it is about new technologies and new investment. 10% of the carbon footprint is
from coal and cement. i have not heard anyone talk about how are we going to -- erik: you mean steel and cement, no? larry: steel and cement, yes. so it is going to require new technologies to sequester carbon . and through the new technologies , because of the new technologies there's going to be hundreds of new unicorns. so i am excited about not the risk of transition. i'm excited about the opportunities. i believe this is also where some people disagree with me. i believe part of the solution is going to be the traditional hydrocarbon companies, too. they have the science. they have the technology. they have old wells of energy, of oil and gas, these big fields that they can now pump carbons into those wells, and do it
probably more cheaply than any other thing at the moment. so it is going to be a combination of old industry becoming new and new technologies that are going to change our world. erik: so if you are that coent in the prospects -- kailey: that was blackrock chairman and ceo larry fink speaking with bloomberg's erik schatzker. you can follow the bloomberg green summit throughout the day by typing in green on your terminal. coming up, bitcoin is rallying once again, back to above $53,000. how sustainable is that? that is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
right back into bitcoin. it rallied as much as 20% to above $53,000 today. joining us now as mike mcglone, bloomberg intelligence commodities strategist. what is different today that wasn't true last week? is this just dip buyers coming in? mike: yes. there's buyers below the market. sometimes what you need to do enable market, you get a little too expensive on the bull market , now we are see bid buyers raising their bids. we see the number two crypto ethereum made an all-time high today. guy: what does the setup look like? people often test the downside a few times before they figure out whether there's a solid base. kaes. -- mike: good question. that's the only thing i'm afraid of coming back again. it could happen, but i thing it is less likely. that's part of the reason why i mentioned ethereum. in the chart, volatility in bitcoin, even if it sounds like
it is volatile, that going volatility has dropped to the lowest level since it broke about that $10,000 level at the end of last year. to me, this is an organic bull market, and we see more and more naysayers flipping. today, the key story, j.p. morgan launching a crypto fund. two years ago, they were not a big fan. now a lot of these are coming from organic demand for customers. we are seeing that from banks. they realize they are losing clients if they are not jumping on board to this digitalization of money. kailey: i really am interested to see if we see any price swings in bitcoin, let alone tesla, with earnings after the bell today and what elon musk may or may not say. i want to get your take on the rally and some of the other commodities. the industrial metals, the ags. mike: the key thing to run number is what is absent, crude oil. it is way oversupplied, not a lot of demand. electrification, we are going
that way. it means good demand for copper and metals. the key thing is in ags, probably getting a little high here, because we need a bad weather summer to maintain these prices. guy: maybe some things to take away from this whole story. some shortages, and that commodity cycle certainly beginning to signal a potential change ahead in terms of the inflationary outlook. that is certainly the view of some. i'm waiting for that headline to talk more about what happens with bitcoin. elon musk says it is going to be an event, talking about the fact that it is going to be. we will find out how it is. miley cyrus and elon musk. what a combination. ♪ ♪
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guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. kailey leinz is in new york. alix steel is out today. this is the european market close. let's talk about what is important in europe this hour. travel stocks jumping as the european commission's ursula von der leyen says american tourists are welcome this summer. mario draghi laid out how italy will spend the eu recovery fund. the big question, could rome spend that money effectively that is a huge moment for italy, also for the eu. and vowel-mageddon. that's what i'm calling it. aberdeen standard releasing their new name which is pronounced aberdeen, but spelled abrdn. european equity markets being driven by the banks today. travel and leisure stocks are also having a fairly solid day as well.