tv Bloomberg Markets Asia Bloomberg April 12, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT
could widen the current account surplus with united states, a 50% rise on a jump external demand. haslinda: japan will dump fukushima rate of octave water into the sea. an -- radioactive water into the sea, trying rebuke from other countries. rishaad: japan's fukushima water release is strongly regrettable, that coming out of seoul. in the market, seeing decent of elements with hang seng up to 66 , gains across the board-- 267, gains across the board. also the nikkei to 25 moving, -- 225, also moving.
trade data in yuan terms, january to march figures just coming out right now. total trade with the u.s., up 61.3% year on year, q1 imports up 19% in february up 10%. imports 19.3% upside, seeing how this is, comparing to estimates from economists we have been talking with. the trade balance overall, waiting for that figure to come out. and we are also waiting for numbers showing what all this is in dollar terms as well. for reaction, let's get into haslinda. haslinda: a key story this hour the chinese trade data. laura fitzsimmons joins us from australia. by all accounts it is expected to be a strong number, what is your take on it? >> absolutely, i think that was
widespread across the street. we all know when we are looking at this one year ago numbers given what happened through q1 last year, essentially you're going to have a significant jump. this will be met with a large amount of expectation and maybe will not cause ruckus to the market, but we will wait to see when we look at the dollar terms. certainly we were looking for those numbers on each count. for the surplus we were expecting $48.3 billion and it will be interesting to see where that lands on balance. haslinda: to those numbers justify what pboc is trying to rein in liquidity? to expect pboc to do that more through 2021? >> yes, we certainly are getting that sense. the last two weeks we have seen that dynamic step up, in terms
of commentary and expectations building here. it is going to be interesting to watch how the dollar does trade going forward and this is largely a subscribed position within markets. so a lot of risk weighing on this pair so it will be interesting to watch what we can do from here. and a grind higher in the pair may continue to cause pain for the markets. so i think it will be certainly one we continue to watch closely , in particular of credit taps get turned off. potentially in a stark matter to what has built up over the last nine months at least. i think it has been an interesting take some leaders -- the stand taken by pboc, that we will tend to see more of the next few months. some might argue it may be too much too soon. rishaad: we have breaking news coming from huarong the troubled
asset manager. the bond rout yield spread hitting record highs. we are talking $25 bond yields up 3%, 10.8% now bonds and seeing spreads, a continued widening. this company is come of course, rated still. it is really after china huarong asset management dozens of firms and failing to publish 20/20 earnings by the march 31 deadline, some attributing delays to plans for significant restructuring. we have few other specifics to go on. laura, the dollar story playing out as well, if we do see further dollar upside, how much pain met cause for companies like huarong and others who find themselves with a lot of debt which is dominated in u.s. currency? >> yes, i think it will be an
area to watch. what we have seen in the past is we tend to get these stories, it will be one npr there, and it tends to be relatively well contained. i think there was in the past always expectation of further contagion which could spread to the market more deeply, and that is not really happened in the bond market, from my perspective. it will be interesting, in terms of overall appetite for credit within asia. it has been robust over the last year, and i think it is only the last month or so we have started to see that wayne. -- wane somewhat. there has been less demand for longer dated debt to secure. these spreads, there's clearly a lot of risk, they can widen further, given overall credit has been crating -- trading incredibly tight. rishaad: getting back to the trade numbers, they are skewed
by basis factors in a large part as you alluded to. if we go further down the line, what are we seeing with the chinese economy? when does it return to trend growth and what is trend growth at the moment for the pending? >> it is a get -- for the pandemic? >> we expect to see sequential growth in china largely led from the export side, which is why exports remain so important. overall there's an expectation, whether 9% number for the year, it is hard to know. back to the old days of 6% rate which is something the pboc and authorities are happy to subscribe to, i would say, that is next dictation for markets in the longer run. but right now it will be noisy in terms of the data. china has led this recovery because it want to everything at the beginning. so it is interesting to watch. the numbers we are expecting in the u.s. are also very robust
and continually prone to further upgrades. it is hard to tell when things will return to trend, for made, because i think some of the numbers are still substantial, but we are expecting some moderation to the second half and into 2022. haslinda: are all eyes on tapering in the u.s. as well, potential tapering? we heard from bullard saying it takes a certain rate of vaccination for them to start the debate on whether to taper are not. and by all calculations that will be in the fourth quarter. what is your take on that? >> an interesting headline this morning to see them specifically refer to the right. we would think about it landing around september or the fourth quarter, maybe with a like. -- lag. that is earlier than our tapering expectation here jp morgan. we have been thinking something around q1 of next year. the market, as we know, has been
moving forward with rate high expectations our tapering expectations, everything from the fed. with that backdrop in mind, and where the markets have traded too, i would say september for a number of investors, is where it would have begun, and then to the end of the year. that probably lines up with the 75% rate, i would not said huge market mover but interesting to see that from the fed. also interesting to see the comments this morning in asia time around inflation. and the comfort i am sensing from fed members that inflation would not get out of hand, that it would be comfortably around the 2% level from their expectation. and even other worried about upside risk or downside risk to inflation, overall i still think they are quite skeptical on being able to get there and sustainably being about their in terms of their framework. i think that is something the market has not really us into that much, as we know.
it could be a thing we look forward to, what are the expectations for the second half. because clearly this market is running ahead of a lot of things so it will be interesting to see how debt starts to become back in the framework if inflation numbers do not [-] get up. rishaad: it is important aware inflation would come from, costs or demand, very different beast. if we get demand pull that could have a cascading effect can it not, and it may not be as transient as some members of fomc think? >> very true, i would think though from what we have seen so far, clearly a lot of it has been driven by energy prices as the headline, left. that is-- prices as the headline lift. that is coming through in the pmi prices. and what feeds through core inflation, it is less relevant. in terms of back testing it adds .2% probably to the core number.
for us it is not hugely meaningful, some of the impulses coming through from surveys, largely for me it is a goods inflation story as opposed to wage inflation or other forms. at this stage it is probably of a more benign nature and one that can be very much transient in nature. i think that is why we are watching oil and we expect to see a climb from here. we have to start to see across a broader base of measures. rishaad: thank you, or fitzsimmons, jp morgan camacho. let's get -- jp morgan australia. vonnie: sources say the u.s. secretary will not label china as a currency manipulator. but officials are concerned beijing is masking intervention through estate owned bank. the first horn report by janet yellen is due thursday but it has not yet been finalized and
it is not yet clear when it will be released. she and her team are considering rolling back trump euro policies. you up to us some trump era policies. u.s. regulators really back enthusiasm for spacs an blank check companies privately telling accounts warrants issued to investors may not considered equity instruments. the latest efforts on the sec to clamp on this white-hot trend. u.s. regulars also investigating potentially faulty airbags made by joyce and safety systems which acquired takata. the probe covers to under 50,000 passenger side airbags, which-- 250,000 side airbags which may have been incorrectly folded. automakers affected include mercedes-benz, toyed, nissan and
gm which have initiated recalls. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. haslinda: still ahead on "bloomberg markets: asia." china imports and exports and focus. joining us is that china markets economist. rishaad: and a forceful overalls -- overhaul, how jack ma's ant group will revamp its business based on china's demand. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪
both ant and regulars confirming these changes, what we know thus far? >> executives from ant financial and ant group had meetings with regular to from pboc and the banking regulator and it confirms bloomberg's report. it will be put into a financial holding company, treated and regulated more like a bank. regulator said that ant group had to put in place significant changes, in terms of and including, reducing the consumer loans business and putting caps and restrictions there, also its massive money market fund as well. they have to reduce the value of the uae bound money market fund and make sure they have proper protections in place for personal data and ensure adequate liquidity, changes around corporate governance, a pretty thorough overhaul. it follows on from the record fine we saw imposed on alibaba,
the other jack ma company yesterday, $2.8 billion. four ant -- for ant group, details on the overhaul, questions as to whether it will constrain growth going forward and it puts a shadow over reviving the ipo that was withdrawn dramatically in november. haslinda: tom, on the broader economy, china's bank extending record loans and pboc said, rein it in. tom: yes they are saying it is enough, 1.2 trillion u.s. dollars of loans by chinese banks to individuals and companies over the first quarter. that was up 8% from the same time last year when pboc was flooding system with money to ensure there was recovery and stability in the midst of the pandemic. you are right, the pboc santa makes now, make sure you do not lend more than you lent in 2020. leaning on letters to rein in
loans. more broadly cop just leaning on lenders to rein in loans. -- more broadly leaning on lenders to rain and loans. in march aggregate financing came in below expectations. m two money supply eased off and china banking fell. taking that into context it is the view of bloomberg economics you may now see the pboc reducing its efforts to remove liquidity from the system. yesterday, the first in a long time, you saw a net injection of 10 billion yuan into the financial system. clearly they are concerned about financial risks. but they do not want to make sharp u-turns. haslinda: china coal anchor -- china markets coanchor tom mackenzie. tuesday we get the latest read on u.s. inflation never's and stay tuned for insight from policymakers next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> this growth we are expecting the second half of this year will be very strong. >> i think there will be more inflation in 2021 then in recent years. >> headline inflation will likely move above 2%. >> we know there's going to be a price surge this year. >> i am bullish on the rebound but we have a long way to go. >> we want to re-center inflation expectations at 2%. >> we expect in our baseline most of that to be transitory, and for inflation to return either this year to around 2%. >> we want inflation to average 2% over time and when we get that is when we will raise interest rates. haslinda: fed officials reiterating commitment to 2% inflation ahead of the big u.s. cpi. and boston fed president joined the fray same policymakers should be humble about the level of confidence in inflation, and said there risks to both overshooting and undershooting the 2% target. rishaad: former new york fed
president bill dudley says the fed needs to see more progress on inflation and is well motivated but was running the risk of being behind the curve as policymakers monitor fallout from the archegos debacle. with more concern about the nonfinancial -- non-bank financial sector. >> reserves at the federal reserve are not risky assets so we are not talking about an exemption that increases bank risk. if we are really concerned about the idea of exempting reserves and giving banks more room we can just raise the leverage ratio requirement from 5% to 5.5%. >> what is left? >> reserves are not risky and banks cannot control have any reserves they hold, that is determined by the fed. >> moving beyond this point of regulation and talking about the leverage ratio, you have talked before about concern about leverage building up in the
shadow banking industry, about a lack of regulation and that area of financial markets. do you still see this as a concern and you see it as oppressing one, or civilly something to deal with perhaps later on? >> i think it is pressing. when you think about what happened last march a year ago, the federal government had to rescue the money market, mutual fund industry again we had problems in the mortgage reit space, in the corporate bond space. more recently we had the archegos, so the market is rife with issues that need to be dealt with sooner rather than later. >> we have been making jokes this morning about transitory as well, and you and i've talked before about the british pretense of short-term, medium-term, long-term. now we have a transitory thing as we move along the x access in the timeline. does any of this make here
radical cents, or are we kidding ourselves, massaging the unknown? >> well, the fed is being patient for a couple of obvious reasons. number one, they are not sure where for employment as. number two, they're not sure how fast inflation will rise once a get full employment. number three they're worried about inflation expectations becoming unanchored to the downside because the fed is not been able to achieve its 2% inflation target for longtime. the change in policy as well motivated. the risk is that the fed will be late. before, the fed tried to tighten monetary policy to arrive at 2% rate of inflation, for employment and monetary policy neutral the same time and now they will not try to tighten monetary policy and will till we have full appointment and 2% and the inspected to move higher. so -- they expected to move higher. so the fed will be slower.
. >> is it a risk they will be late or a to be like? >> they are making a commitment to being late, questions how late. then how how would they have to change rates to keep it from accelerating. arrest could be more likely at that point because a fed would have to move not to a neutral monetary policy but a tight monetary policy following this new framework. >> this is a huge issue in the most important question we can ask now fed officials is how will they know if they are wrong on this transitory issue? if you run the fomc back on the fomc how would you know you are wrong? >> at the end of the day they will look at the bubble we see in inflation this year mostly due to base effects and frictional cost issues, reopening the economy and will be focusing more on the labor market. how many people are still unemployed compared to where we were in march of 2020? now we have a shortfall of employment of a .5 million 9
million people on the federal track that carefully. as most people get employed the fed will start to not focus on the transitory effect but one they're most concerned about, at what point you get to such a tight labor market it generates wage pressures that drive up prices? haslinda: for its from then your fed president. we have breaking news to do with the toshiba buyback proposal. saying toshiba is worth 6,200 y per share anden . thousand yen per share by a proposal is to cheap, saying it is worth at least6200 yen per share. farallon capital management a shareholder, says toshiba has a duty to maximize corporate value.
now voices sang ¥5,000 per share of the toshiba buyer proposal is to cheap. rishaad: let's have a look at movers in japan as we had to the lunch break there. taking look at companies making waves. takashimaya, a department store chain up four point 3%, forecasting guidance coming in above analyst estimates. ¥13 billion it was estimated to be at 11 million -- 11 billion for this year. tesco under pressure reaction coming from south korea about the plan of japan releasing a million cubic meters of treated radioactive water from the fukushima nuclear power plant and putting it into the pacific ocean. it would not happen for two years and tetco would be preparing a process and the share price now done .3% with south korea saying the whole thing was regrettable. let's look at agc, japanese glassmaker, up 4%.
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rishaad: we had trade data out of china little while ago. the yuan figures do tend to show there has been a reduction in the trade surplus for march. total surplus january to march 760 million yuan, big gains with regard to imports -- 760 billion you want. -- 760 billion yuan. what was your take on these?
>> the initial release of china traded and you on terms suggest exports and in parks -- in yuan suggest imports and exports are maintaining momentum with imports picking up faster than expected which resulted in a now or than expected trade surplus. looking at q1 numbers in aggregate, it seems to suggest export outperformance remains a team in china's recovery, and export outperformance was pushed up by a combination of global recovery and demand, as well as china's growth fueling -- filling up the global supply chain gap. rishaad: they paint a rosy picture of the recovery taking place globally. we have to remember base effects and play here. what is it tell us about what we can see, as those base effects get ironed out, and where we see growth in china ahead? >> yes, you rightly point out we
are seeing a selloff -- a set of very positive growth data mainly because a base effects in q1 2020 when china went into full lockdown and economic activities were stopped. looking ahead into china's recovery we think they are still grounds for optimism because higher frequency data in march suggested we are beginning to see the consumer sector and services sectors growth picking up. today's import data confirmed they view that domestic demand is gradually recovering. going forward the next few quarters we think we are going to see slower your on your growth figures normalizing to long-term potential growth around 5.7%. in the short team sequentially we are probably still going to see solid foundation in the recovery. haslinda: what correlations can
you make with copper? we know the rally of copper stalled due to china's demand which dropped 40%. what is your reading on the? >> yeah, the commodity prices rallied a lot. i personally think this is driven by short-term cyclical factors. and fundamentally that is because china's credit rebounded last year. china's credit cycle leads an economic cycle especially commodity demand by two quarters or three quarters, that is why we are currently seeing the commodity prices rally. but as you mentioned earlier copper price rally started to soar because we have seen credit demand peak and q4, 2020 and this year in 2021, pboc is a marking on policy normalization. from that perspective we do see
demand stabilizing in china and there probably won't have much more room to run for the commodities space in the second half of 2021. haslinda: talk to us about that policy normalization, where is china it is policy normalization? where do you think it will be by the end of this year? >> welcome i think china's policy normalization focus more on credit growth in the control of debt, the debt ratio to gdp, and not so much more on benchmark rate. policy makers have been emphasizing continuity and stability of china's policy to make sure china focuses more on uneven growth momentum. we think that the pboc may not focus much more on benchmark rates. and we don't expect any change in pboc benchmark rate such as one year and opr rates this year
but rather we think credit and how slowdown will be the main theme of policy normalization. haslinda: it is interesting to see when you take a look at the gdp projection, from china, it is 6% for 2021. but bloomberg economics is projecting an 8.5% growth for the year. what you make of the discrepancy between the two? >> i think it is an interesting observation. consensus from economists suggest china's growth will be at a relatively high level around 8%-9%. policymakers are setting a conservative gdp target of 6%. that reflects a fundamental shift in policymaking, that reduces focus on targets of gdp growth, but focuses more on medium policy
targets as well as quality of growth. rishaad: we have this story about huarong's bond rout deepening, and it spreads to other companies and dollar bonds tightening. does this pose a threat to the financial system? >> i think the bond default is not a systemic financial risk now because china is in a different position in 2021 after its multiyear of deleveraging efforts. i think policymakers are aware of the localized or idiosyncratic bond market risks. but the pboc is carefully managing the financial market by providing stable liquidity in the system. so therefore i think i might sound dismissive but i don't begin the near term there is any
systemic financial risk in china. rishaad: thank you, from natwest markets. vonnie quinn in york with first word news. vonnie: iran is blaming israel for an attack on a power grid with an radium -- uranium enrichment, coming at a time of attempt to reinstate the 2015 nuclear arms a court. israel is neither confirming nor denying any involvement. german chancellor glenn merkel's -- angela merkel's succession took a turn with two candidates. the move sets up a showdown
months before elections. russia suspended most air trouble with turkey, citing rising cobit infections from russians returning from the country. -- rising covid-19 infections from russians returning from the country. this comes over a's -- after a spat for on cross support for ukraine. u.k. health officials said they achieve their goals after a first covid-19 vaccine shot for everyone over 50 and those over 40 are eligible in the coming days. hitting goals delivers a boost to the prime ministers plan to open the economy further after four months of strict lockdowns. british salons were allowed to reopen monday. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
haslinda: take a look at markets as we await the trade data out of china in dollar terms as well as for the month of march. see if i index trading up .8% currently. it has been trading -- the cfi index turning up .8%. that you on at 65495. people familiar say janet yellen not name china a currency manipulator. the honk sent trading up by 1.3%. in asia -- the hang seng up 1.3%. goldman says dollar yen could fall to 103 with the months ahead.
rishaad: you are back with "bloomberg markets: asia." president biden assuring ceos his administration has bipartisan support to address the global supply shortage. >> biden read from a letter signed by 23 senators and 43 house just 42 house numbers backing's proposal to secure $50 million for the semiconductor industry. it was an opportunity for participants from the chip industry and customers in the automotive and electronic industries to every vince is about the supply shortage -- to air grievances about the supply shortage. the auto industry was hoping they would earmark funds for the
auto industry but according to sources they have no plans to characterize one industry over another. that was a source of debate in the virtual meeting, that there's been no special measure for one industry but a solution for addressing the global supply shortage for all. in many ways the news was over shouted by industry news. nvidia, maine chip maker here in the u.s. announced it would enter the cpu market, market dominated by intel for a long time. that caused a sharp drop in intel's shares and again in nvidia shares, and was a talking point in the industry monday. haslinda: one of the hottest vehicles on wall street, blank tech companies or spacs may have had a speedbump. bloomberg news learned the sec is raising red flags the market.
su joins us for more. regulators are signaling rule changes may apply? su: we know for months the regular has been raising red flags for investors not being fully informing of -- not be fully informed of potential risks associated with spacs. it is cracking down on how accounting roles apply to a key element of these blank tech companies, warrants. warrants issue too early investors as a deal sweetener, might not be considered equity instruments. instead, they might be liabilities, measured at fair value, for accounting purposes. that is a big difference. again, these warrants are key part of the spacs. bloomberg news learned as ecb on reaching out to a lot of accountants last week. when one asked for specific guidance on how rules apply, the
sec issued a statement, which came out around the close of trading in the latest session. the evaluation of accounting for contracts, such as warrants issued by a spac required careful considerations of facts and circumstances. those close to the matter say not all warrants would be affected but it is expected to be a widespread issue and a major headache for accountants and lawyers hired to ensure these blank tech companies are in compliance with the sec. rishaad: it is red-hot, we have 300 spacs launch and u.s. exchanges in the first quarter and a whole load in the pipeline. this attention from the sec could have an impact on the market? >> absolutely and it could disrupt filings waiting to come to market until the accounting issue is resolved. some analystss have said the sec
is signaling it is not going to approve the paperwork until the issue is sorted out. the sec again, has been focused on this, because of the huge amount of money being raised. these stacks became popular ways to raise money because their jobs -- spacs became popular ways to raise money because they're like ipo's. the goal is to merge your company with a closely held company, it allows less paperwork unless transparency and raises a ton of money. blank check companies raised $79.2 billion last year. haslinda: that was bloomberg's su keenan in new york. still to come on the show, japan plans to release radioactive water from the fukushima plant into the ocean. more on those plans next.
imports up 19.3%. we discussed these numbers, looking ahead, what is it tell us about so-called do circulation policy -- dual circulation policy introduced by president xi xinping. and what is it telus as the economy try to rebalance tort services -- what is it tell us as the economy tries to rebalance tort services? >> in the trade sector we see in the near term exports outperforming, driven by global recovery in demand as well as china's goal in filling global supply chain gaps when other countries went to lockdown. looking ahead in the longer term kind is embarking on a dual circulation strategy, tilt toward domestic demand. in the long term we don't see a
wide trade surplus would be sustainable and we think china would rely more on domestic consumption rather than export amount in terms of its trade picture. we do see more balance per current accounts in terms of percent of gdp in coming years. haslinda: what is the outlook for the yuan? we have seen how the you want had its worst month versus the-- yuan had its worst month versus the dollars instead trade war? >> the outlook for the rmb, on the positive side we see a trade surplus outperformance and capital inflows driving a stronger yuan. we also see a potential of u.s. china relations worsening. in technology or the political front, so on balance we do see
yuan party to a marginally stronger level of 640, at the end of 2021. rishaad: thank you for joining us from natwest markets. we have the bank of japan governor saying they will achieve their 2% inflation but it will take time, also saying they will keep easing efforts consistently. the country planning to release one million cubic meters of treated radioactive water from the fukushima daiichi plant and empty the water into the pacific ocean with south korea saying the decision is regrettable though it should meet global guidelines. let's get to our energy asia editor in tokyo. it is going to take a couple of years, isn't it? >> yes and right now the timeline is that japan would not begin these releases for two years. the expectation is, the million
cubic meters of treated radioactive water, would be disposed of over several decades. so there is an important context to understand. there has been a swift reaction from some of japan's neighbors, south korea has strongly condemned the plan and set it is a risk to the marine environment and safety of neighboring countries. china has asked japan to reconsider the plan and do a fuller consultation with stakeholders and the international atomic energy agency. haslinda: china, korea, maybe crying foul but the u.s. says it is in line with global standards and it is unavoidable and has to be done. >> yes, the u.s. came out quickly and appears to support the plan.
this is something that happens in the industry and there are international standards for release of treated water. at happens on a fairly routine basis. for a lot of reactors globally. so it does appear what japan is planning is in line with the standards. but there is still concern from neighboring countries, and even local fishermen in japan oppose this plan as well. so there is opposition to it. haslinda: bloomberg aaron clark in tokyo. a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. hsbc released an agreement with the while weight cfo. withee huawei cfo.
an agreement to fight extradition from canada to the u.s. the cfo of huawei said she did not mishandle guidance. a software giant can -- microsoft confirmed it is buying speech geithner nuance medications and all caps jill biden $16 billion paying 15 -- and all-cash deal at $16 billion paying $56 per share. blackrock and singapore's temasek formed a joint venture decarbonization partners, to invest in reducing the world dependence on fossil fuel. the two are committing six or million dollars to the effort aiming to eventually manage billions across multiple funds. >> this is not a large fund, not
tens of billions of dollars. it may lead to those types of large-scale investments, but it does not need to be that large-scale in the early beginnings of this venture. ♪ haslinda: uber is seeing a recovery in ride-hailing to meant as vaccination rates increase in the u.s. and more people get out of their homes. the company saw its highest gross bookings in a year last month, $30 billion on an annualized basis while its delivery service group 150% from a year earlier -- its delivery service group one had a 50% from one year earlier -- it's delivery service 1 room50% from one year earlier -- uber's delivery service group150% from one year ago. rishaad: china's march export
number up 16% and imports up 35.2% on the month, that is what we have in yuan terms, only first quarter data, showing a trade search with exports in the first quarter up 38.7% in yuan terms, $704 billion. we have a figure of a 19.3% increase in imports as well, 3.8 trillion yuan, a surplus. we are waiting for dollar numbers and just how the customs department say, they did not specify whether these numbers are in yuan or dollars. the march numbers they released. all of that playing out as we are seeing the shanghai comp up .2%. seeing gains across the board currently, with chinese currency at 6.54 against its u.s.
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