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tv   Bloomberg Markets Asia  Bloomberg  April 7, 2021 10:00pm-11:00pm EDT

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the pandemic will not end less equal access to inoculations. he also supported the push to expand central-bank powers. juliette: the credit suisse ceo is taking fire from all sides. in an internal call comic's own employees vented their anger over the bank's multibillion-dollar losses. rishaad: the markets [indiscernible] this is a snapshot of what is going on at the moment with it -- with asian equity markets study this thursday. u.s. equity futures moving to the upside after small gains on the s&p 500 and the dow jones industrial as well. a bit of breaking news coming through. the sri lankan interest rate decision taking place, keeping cost of borrowing steady at 4.5%, essentially what we were looking for. the standard lending rate is at five point 5%. i should say the deposit rate is
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4.5%. this coming out of colombo. a word as to what is going on with asset classes as well, taking a look at japanese government bonds. we have got those supported, also an oil price supported as well. to the downside by .2 of 1%. seeing oil and a narrow range in the last few days between 59 and $60.5 a barrel, and look at bitcoin. someone coming out and saying bitcoin could be a chinese financial weapon, and just because this is a pro crypto maxima list as he is referred to. he also the cryptocurrency may be undermining america, dollar index unchanged, 1.66%, dovish tail from the fed helping things along nicely. juliette: indonesian president as his land richer nations for
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vaccine nationalism, saying the pandemic will not end unless all countries have access to the shots. indonesia has had to slow down its inoculation drive due to receiving fewer supplies than expected. speaking exclusively to haslinda amin, the president also said there was no need to reach 7% economic growth this year. >> it depends on the vaccine supply. if a vaccine supply are in line with the schedule we have made the vaccination would be completed at the end of the year , but due to the supply we have only vaccinated 449,000 people at the end of march. as the vaccine arrives, 70 million doses per month, we will be able to inoculate one million doses per day. haslinda: where will you get your vaccines from, because right now, even india is holding onto it supply of astrazeneca? >> that is where the problem
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lies. there are several delayed commitments. that is why i am asking world leaders to prevent what is called a vaccine nationalism. we must get vaccines to all countries, poor countries, developing countries must be given equal treatment. if not, the pandemic will not end. haslinda: vaccination is key to indonesia's economic recovery. given the pace of the vaccination you are seeing right now, what assumptions are you making about the growth potential for indonesia for this year? >> the key for all countries is vaccine. we believe if the vaccine is successful economic growth will follow. the trust of the business world is very important. if we are successful in following elf protocols, this will have an impact on economic growth and economic recovery. haslinda: if it is 5% growth
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this year, at 7% growth possible for gdp? >> 42020, we know indonesia's growth was at -2.1%. i think indonesia is very well-positioned. if we also look at physical deficit, we are very [indiscernible] our deficit is at -6.1% of gdp. other countries are -50%, -10%, we are careful at managing the economy. haslinda: 7% growth this year? >> we expect this year 4.5% to 5%. no need to be 7%. haslinda: you have always push for lower rates. in one of our earlier conversations you said you went interest rates to go down, down,
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down. currently the rate in indonesia is 3.5%, the lowest on record. are you happy with where it rates are at right now? >> before rates were at high levels, 5%, 6%. at 3.5% now so we are very happy. businesses are happy. at the end of march [indiscernible] was in a better position before the pandemic. we are optimistic if we can subdue the pandemic we continued with the vaccination program, the economy will recover. haslinda: indonesia's economic recovery is still very fragile and there is a lot of pressure. is there risk that the federal bank would have to raise rates because the currency is under pressure, and also because it is rising in the u.s. and they have two move [indiscernible]. >> indeed, macroeconomic matters
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do not depend on domestic factors but also external factors. policies in the u.s. impact other countries, including indonesia. that is why prudence and managing the economy is very important. i thought before on fiscal deficits. we are careful and the deficit is small compared to other countries. we maintained this presence. rishaad: the president of indonesia speaking exquisitely with my coanchor. the world's biggest rating bond is having problems speaking with one voice over immunization. let's get differs world is with vonnie quinn. vonnie: the eus form to -- a strong association with the astrazeneca covid vaccine and blood clots. in a statement, it said it will continue its discussions. the drug regulator issued a
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warning about the jab, advising people under 30 to seek an alternative. it deals a new blow to the vaccine and continues to cloud it's little or. treasury secretary janet expect president biden to support a text font -- says the plan to raise corporate taxes to 20% would be fairer to all americans. it would remove incentives for u.s. corporations to shift assets abroad. president biden is putting pressure on a publican's to support kids infrastructure plan. he is urging congress to work swiftly to pass it. speaking from the white house he called it a blueprint for the future, saying it is vital in order for the u.s. to stay competitive with china. republican lawmakers sharply oppose the event and we have also seen opposition from some democrats. pres. biden: do you think china
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is waiting around to invested its digital infrastructure, research and development? i promise you, they are not waiting. if they are counting on american democracy to beat too slow, too limited, and too divided to keep pace. vonnie: the white house has crushed speculation it has now confirmed it is not discussing a joint boycott of the 2020 beijing winter olympics with its allies. tensions between the u.s. and china have been heightened over china's -- beijing's human rights record. jp morgan ceo says the pandemic will end with the u.s. rebound that could last at least two years. it is annual shareholder letter he said economic conditions and is doing this could result in a boon that may go into 2023.
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he warns that while lenders are benefiting from u.s. stimulus, destruction by technology could shrink the role of banks in the financial system. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. juliette: still i had on bloomberg buckets asia, semi conductor shortage. the gap between ordering a chip and taking its delivery is now at 16 weeks. the outlook from the industry with regional head of tech research. rishaad: next, more analysis with that of research at ce be international. sure why he is a long on economy stocks. that is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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rishaad: asian markets a bit of
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a stagger, we have a hankering new to the upside and a bit of weakness in japan. we have the minutes from the fed march meeting saying policymakers waiting for data to improve before turning back similars. they also downplay inflation risk. let's get the market outlook with the head of research at ceb international investment. are they looking for trouble where there is not any trouble there? >> entering the second quarter you see lots of [indiscernible] many in the market, but the problem is, no matter where you go. i would say for the moment and second-quarter we should or focus on the theme of economic growth in the whole world. second, think about investor
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pressure threatening from stocks. new economies will continue to perform then last quarter. it will be solutions. [indiscernible] to traditional factors first. because new economy stocks also have adjustments in march, high-quality new economy stocks, which also at the by on the bottom. we have a growth strategy and markets -- in markets. [indiscernible] rishaad: everybody is counting on this pent-up demand really to be the main cause and effect of inflation. how much of that risk is mitigated by the fact that people may not be spending money on goods and they might be spending money on experiences
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instead? >> the pent-up demand is off in the market, of course. think about demand versus supply. the recovery moment is recovery on the supply side first. do you still have to get the money, get the income and spent. inflationary pressure from the demand side [indiscernible] you have big inflation coming up. you see the bond yield going up. we factored in long-term inflation rather than shorter term inflation. you have to worry about inflation. you have reflationary pressure up one more when the recovery is in shape. you will see inflation coming up. juliette: how concerned are you
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about the vaccine rollout being inequitable around the world, and the potential for this delaying the overall economic recovery? >> i think the market right now is [indiscernible] the two biggest economies. china and the u.s. [indiscernible] but when you look in other countries like in the euro zone japan and other countries they are left behind auto vaccine rollout. [indiscernible] risk the first half of this year. markets are stepping up their efforts to do more in controlling the pandemic, so i would say the second half of this year they will be picking up there growth. the whole world right now is looking at china and the u.s.
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the economies picked up faster than you expected. i think the world will be happy with that. juliette: a lot of pent-up demand for people that have been virtually stuck in their own countries for a year now. you were seeing upside here further for the consumer driven recovery. tell us about some of the stock picks you like. >> the pent-up demand is you cannot go out and go to other countries for traveling. once you have a relaxation all those things, it will relax in the markets. first thing i would say art factors, automobiles, cars, airlines. all of those things will perform well in the next couple of months. the economic recovery, it depends on people because it lots of people lost their job.
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the job losses are cut and having people get back to job and get their money so they will spend. juliette: generalization as also pushed ahead much faster than we were expecting. the new economy is one area you're looking at broadly across many sectors year -- here. >> i think in the second quarter you are looking at new economy stocks. adjustments in the first quarter is a sign for us. you see some over stripping a lot and have adjustments. some of the big names performed very well. the prophet is good -- profit is good but the trend will continue in 2021 and 2022.
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this is a good time for us to think about the strategy, picking the right one. [indiscernible] still has good potential to go up in the second quarter. rishaad: tell me, when you do your stockpicking, you look at the sector companies are in. you must also look at corporate governance with the boards of these different companies you are addressing them. how closely do you look at that and how worried are you by legislation being proposed in hong kong to allow anonymity for some board directors? >> investors like us have two provide fear assessments. the most important thing is you have executive directors, and those very good actually have a balance. if you do not have any
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regulatory requirements that will be causing lots of trouble. we have to look at this in detail. if the stock is not performing well, we will not invest in those stocks. i think all investors agree with that. juliette: we thank you for your time, at of research at ceb international investment. coming up, millions tumble out of the middle class across the world in a historic setback fueled by the pandemic. among the hardest hit, south asia. we take a closer look at this economic headwind. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are working with g20 nations to agree to a global minimum corporate tax rate that can stop the race to the bottom. >> [indiscernible] at this point in time, the principal of a global minimum tax rate [indiscernible] but we went to hear all views in relation to this. >> and offered to increase the level of new taxation, we have proposed 12.5%. >> the part of the usa gives this initiative a seriously deciding tailwind for the maximum tax rate that i have put forward, along with my colleague. >> it would make sure profits are not -- and tech statements. one country would take the
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difference up to the minimum level of taxation. >> we have the blueprint, building on the blueprint, [indiscernible] >> there is a unique window of opportunity to have a new international taxation system, which would be more efficient and fairer. >> if we want a real recovery from the covid crisis, we need spending for public goods by governments, and to have this, we have to stop the race to the bottom on corporate taxation. juliette: the latest on the global minimum tax push as the g20 finance chief pledged to reach a consensus on new rules by 8:00 p.m. the rise of the middle class has been one of the most significant global trends of the past decades but it is an historic setback during the event of a.
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180 million people slid down the economic ladder in 2020. in india there was an estimated 32% reduction in the combined size of the middle and upper middle classes, and across south asia there was a 25% drop. sub-saharan africa also saw a big decline. rishaad: emerging economies are starting to get back on track. on this map, the bigger the dot, the bigger the economic shortfall. around 9.2%, smaller than its precrisis rent. the united states, 3.6. the imf urged richer nations to do more s trend. juliette: china, the economy powering along their, and more education with this. vehicle sales rising six point 6%, coming in at 2.3 8 million units according to preliminary data from china's association of
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automobile manufacturers. everyone was lost at home in march of last year. let's get the latest business flash now, and robinhood is set to seek more bank loans i had of an ipo several months -- to apply it with the hearing of margin call. it robinhood to be one of them was because he watched ideas of the year after drawing scrutiny from regulars and politicians for its role in the eme -- meme stuck frenzy that included gamestop. -- acquired in talks about -- the company discussed potential valuation of roughly $4 billion before negotiations stalled. the bounce is said to be in talks with other investors and a funding round which would evaluate at the same amount. the asset is barely a year old but has surged in popularity. rishaad: market action, let's
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get to japan as it is that time of the day. down to the lunch break and they haven't tokyo. toshiba is unchanged, untreated right now after that ¥5,000 by up, the conglomerate board planning to have a special committee to share the proposal. hitachi up 4.3%, higher than this, set for the highest cost since january 2013. i possible sale of this division to a group led by bain capital. stock bank unchanged. tracks, a singapore start observing retailers, raising money from investors, led by division fund and blackrock as well. all of this is designed to bankroll tracks. -- is just going to be seen with the dilution, selling just shy
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of ¥13 billion to finance it supplement and skincare. that is a look at some of those movers. japanese markets on the way down as we had to lunch -- head to lunch. more on the way. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we have this big backlog out of demand in the auto industry and other places. we don't expect this to clear up into 2020, which is good for the semi conductor companies. >> since the early 2000s, we have seen only about a 10% to 15% improvement in the space. -- in the chip space.
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>> the secular demand trends from smartphones to automobiles to intelligent devices -- this trend will continue on. rishaad: just some of our guests weighing in on the global chip shortage. juliette: let's bring in our next guest, who says the chip shortage problem won't be a result this year. joining us is sebastian hou at clsa. why not? sebastian: good morning. juliette: why don't it be resolved this year? -- won't it be resolved this year? sebastian: it will be difficult. given that the demand will continue to be strong across the board, and also the supply chain
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started to worry about not getting enough. there is definitely overbooking. customers will not give up their orders until they have higher inventory. on the supply side, we are not seeing capacity coming online given the stretch of expansion as well. those will come out only in the first half of 2022, which means the supply line does not seem resolvable until the end of this year. juliette: it's being driven by the pandemic, by u.s.-china tensions. what else is behind this? and the major ramifications if it is going to last a lot longer to be resolved towards the end of this year? sebastian: right. the supply-demand imbalance for this time around is mainly driven by the structural change on the demand side. where we are seeing electrification or iot
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proliferating to all the devices, and the pandemic accelerated that. this is the demand that i think the supply chain industry had not forecasted to come, so they did not prepare enough capacity. such a demand, structural changes will continue. you also mentioned the geopolitical part of this world. that only makes things worse. juliette: some pretty bullish analysts calls yesterday with samsung's numbers and citi saying they could have this resolved by the second or third quarter. that is not what you are saying. and tops of your -- in terms of your top picks, which companies could be better positioned? sebastian: given we need to consider the upside and potential risk that we
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mentioned, demand is strong, but at the same time we have to monitor the overbooking behavior on the supply chains. this time around, we will stick to those companies that have a better expansion and management policies. tsmc is more disciplined in terms of the pricing, the guaranteed order with the customers. that is why, even in the worst case scenario, there is an overbooking correction, tsmc will have the better downside cushion were that to happen. rishaad: tell me, though, how does intel's new chip manufacturing strategy change the game? sebastian: intel appears to be changing their strategies
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dramatically, reentering the foundry again. they did not succeed the last time. we think a lot of that was driven by the political reasons you see around the world. every country wanted to build their domestic semi conductor sustainably long-term. i think intel is doing that. a lot of the reason is because of that. however, we think about the technology leadership's and the -- leaderships and structures, tsmc has an upper hand over intel on that front. we think intel joining the game will take some market share away from the existing market. we believe tsmc's leadership will continue, especially considering the years gap between the two companies.
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rishaad: with that in mind, you have the cost element. you also have other risks as well for intel. tsmc -- ones that tsmc perhaps does not have. can you outline them? sebastian: pardon me? rishaad: apart from the cost side of things, intel has other risks to getting their strategy working. sebastian: exactly. so there is definitely a lot of things for the new ceo to execute. i think intel has to focus on the chip design and also the new product strategies. they are not just doing cpu, they have a much more broader product to fill at the moment. they have competition from amd and from qualcomm, those guys. how to balance the product
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strategy growth going forward versus the internal manufacturing? that continues to be the challenge for the company. i think that is a lot of things for the company to go through. internal manufacturing does not seem to be the most priority, in my opinion. from the national security perspective, there is the need to execute as one of the priority right now. rishaad: then we look at china, which was to break away from reliance on foreigners for its chips. tell us also a bit about china's investment risk as they try and make a chip industry a global leader? sebastian: china is ambitious. they hired an important engineer in the past few years to improve the technology capability. i think the u.s. definitely saw
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that. that is what the u.s. is trying to leverage, an i.p. appendage to restrict the development at the china side. so far, smic cannot get access to what is overly dominated by the u.s. and european makers. smic will likely be bounded at 14 nanometers. that is not necessarily a bad thing for the company. the company can focus on more profitable, mature technology, which is excelling for a long time, and could bring more profitability to their shoulders in the long run rather than just blindly chasing technology. juliette: today, the nikkei reporting nissan to reduce its production -- its auto production on the chip shortage.
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do you think we could see these going on for some time until it is resolved? sebastian: i remember since november and december last year, as saw this news break out every week, that the automakers in europe and japan and in the u.s. shut down partial production. i would not be surprised to continue to see the news coming out in the next couple weeks or the next one to two months. rishaad: sebastian, thank you. sebastian hou from clsa. let's move to japan trying to shake off the global pandemic. that is part of her first word news with vonnie quinn. vonnie: tokyo preparing to impose new restrictions to match virus control measures in osa ka. the governor said the decision will come after hearing expert opinion on the matter. government officials say if the
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request is made, they will probably consider it. this is they get set to hold the summer olympics. japan says so far, more than one million people had at least one vaccine shot. the cdc has confirmed the u.k.'s covid-19 variant is the most common strain in the u.s., overtaking the original form of the virus. despite rising cases across the country, new york announced it will reopen beaches and time for the memorial day weekend. public peoples will open the following month. meanwhile, alabama will lift its state mandate on masks monday following similar moves by texas and indiana. the white house is said to be considering a pledge to cut u.s. greenhouse gas emissions by 50% or more by 2030. that nearly doubles the previous target set by the obama administration and would require dramatic changes in transportation and other sectors. the goal has not been finalized, but is expected to be unveiled later this month.
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indonesia's president is backing a push to expand the central bank's mandate. he believes in throwing public support behind a legislative move which some analysts see as risking its independence. he said bank indonesia should not just manage the currency, but should also support sustainable growth and job creation. >> before rates were at high levels, 7%, 8%. now at 3.5%, we are happy. the people are happy, the businesses are happy. the most important thing is how we can improve demand, consumption, and exports. our purchasing index was at a better position from before the pandemic at 33.2%. before the pandemic, it was just 51%. now we are fully optimistic that if we can subdue the pandemic,
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we can continue with the vaccination program, the economy will recover. vonnie: the los angeles county sheriff says tiger woods was driving almost twice the speed limit before his car crash. the suv's onboard black box recorded a top speed of 87 miles per hour in the 44 miles per hour zone before the superstar rolled over. woods was tested for drugs and alcohol and will not face charges. the 45-year-old suffered serious leg injuries and needed several operations. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm vonnie quinn. this is bloomberg. juliette: we are seeing markets a little mixed. the weakness we saw in japan heading into the lunch break weighing on the overall benchmark index. gains in hong kong. china slightly higher. australia's markets holding at those february 2020 highs. vonnie was talking about the
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president of indonesia's support for the broader central bank mandate. the rupiah falling for the first time in five days on that news. the u.s. dollar rising. let's have a look at some of the stocks we are watching. we continue to wait for the world to open up again. bloomberg bnf saying australia is leading the asia-pacific aviation recovery. it is seeing qantas well supported. meanwhile, citi saying china a long winter in the long haul -- winner in the long haul travel recovery. we are also watching some of the film companies in china. a shanghai film company is being downgraded by morgan stanley as we see a struggle coming in the theater market. they are saying the chinese film market will remain in recovery mode in 2021 amid amid -- amid
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constraint content and holiday demand. rishaad: coming up, credit suisse's summit facing the fire from a tough crowd. his own bankers. the details from the late night conference over the archegos debacle, ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> almost 27% of the group's revenue. this group is counting on the
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growth. >> we see corporates committing to net zero. pretty much across the board there is an enthusiasm for putting capital to work to get us to a better future. >> we have obviously strong positions in singapore and hong kong, our two main hubs. rishaad: now let's get to the
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latest on the archegos aftermath. bloomberg learning the ceo is facing tough questions from his own staff and investors about loss tied to a big implosion. there was a lot of anger, a lot of venting during this year's conference with dozens of his managing directors. su: absolutely. bloomberg has learned the global conference call with the dozens of managing directors took place late tuesday. it was part of crisis management. -- crisis management related to the archegos mess and it quickly turned contentious. the ceo was grilled about the exposure of the bank and credit suisse's profile and we are told the ceo did not give answers, but instead referred to the soon to arrive new chairman. he arrives later this month.
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as an opportunity to review strategy. if we review the year-to-date stock chart of credit suisse, you can see the shares are down some 15% year to date. it fell another percent in the latest u.s. session. that compares to gains by all the other rivals, given there has been a banner first quarter for dealmaking and market activity. the losses related to archegos for credit suisse have been reported by the bank to be close to $4.7 billion, more than any other firm. this is a loss that followed losses related to green spill in the same month. a dual whammy for the bank and for its investors. that has created a lot of questions inside the bank, and a lot of heat for the ceo. juliette: undoubtedly.
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the ceo also facing questions from the board of directors. top traders and investors. su: the key question appears to be both inside and outside. how is it that credit suisse has such exposure and sustained such huge losses, when rivals such as goldman, deutsche bank, even morgan stanley escaped their exposure with little or no damage? in fact, we were reporting that morgan stanley got out in front of everybody and was selling their shares related to archegos a day ahead of goldman and deutsche. credit suisse did not begin unloading some of its $200 billion shares until later that week. the losses from archegos will virtually wipe out the first quarter profit. juliette: bloomberg's su keenan in new york.
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let's get a quick check of the latest business headlines. tencent confirmed its biggest shareholder process plans to sell 2% of its stake. the block sale reduces the amsterdam based company's holdings to just under 29%. a 5.5% discount to the stock's last close. prosus is a unit of a company which invested $32 million in tencent in 2001. a chinese backed online grocery start of his said to be waiting a u.s. ipo. the company is making preparations for an offering as soon as this year. its previous funding round raised more than $300 million. rishaad: just getting breaking news at the moment. the interview haslinda just conducted with the indonesian
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president, saying he has the goal to double indonesia's wealth fund to 200 billion u.s. dollars, and he is planning to do that in two to three years. elsewhere as well, new zealand's prime minister making headlines. juliette: new zealand's prime minister temporarily suspending entries from india. only new zealand citizens can enter the country. a lot of citizens living in india and new zealand, the prime minister now saying indian arrivals will be suspended from april 11 to 28th due to the large jump in covid-19 infections in the country of india, reflected there on that gtv chart for our terminal subscribers. rishaad: coming up, the tiny island that is home to one third of the world's cruise travelers, at least during the pandemic. find out what we are talking
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about. details on the way, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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juliette: carnival's cruise bookings are accelerating, reflecting pent up demand for boat trips, even as the industry remains essentially on hold. booking volumes in the first quarter were 90% higher than 2020.
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keebler to of advanced bookings for next year are ahead of 2019. the cdc says cruises could resume by midsummer with restrictions, that after carnival threatened to relocate chips to markets outside the united states. its ceo told bloomberg's carol massar when he thinks cruises can sale out of america again. >> the cdc i think last october issued a conditional sail order. they came out in phases. the first phase was bringing ships back into u.s. waters, primarily with a minimal crew on board. we finished that phase of it, in terms of ourselves having 30 ships in green status. they issued on april 7 the next phase. what has been issued does not give us a specific time to be able to return and also was not
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workable in the current form. but again, it just came out. we have an opportunity to discuss with the cdc and administration to make sure we have something workable. hopefully that will allow us to be able to sail in july. we are hoping it will be something more in line with the advancements of vaccines that has occurred and the rapid advancements of vaccines the administration has been so successful with, as well as the advancements in treatments and rapid testing, none of which existed when the original sail order was written. we hope we will meet with the administration and come up with something practical that will allow people to return to their choice of vacation travel and get a whole lot of americans back to work. carol: it affects a lot of jobs
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in other industries connected with the cruise industry. how much is carnival threatening to relocate its ships to other markets outside the united states was the reason for the cdc change? they came out and were holding firm. what were the conversations you and other members of the cruise line industry had with the cdc? >> there was no threat or anything. it is just the practical reality that if we are not able to sail from the u.s. in the coming months, we would have to sail from elsewhere. a number of companies have already announced homeporting s hifts from the u.s. to other places in the caribbean. it is a natural outcome of not being able to sail from the u.s. i am not sure anything has changed. perhaps it has.
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i have not heard directly from the cdc if anything changed. i think they generally believe the information they put out might allow some limited sailing as early as july. we have to discuss that with them. our timelines don't quite match up with that. the cdc is trying to do their job. as long as we work together with the cdc and administration, we can get cruises back soon, in the interest of public health, and have those half a million workers no longer suffer from not being able to earn a wage. rishaad: that is the carnival ceo speaking with bloomberg's carol massar. juliette: singapore now accounts for one third of global travelers. this is a testament to the nation's ability to contain the coronavirus and resume operations at a time when other countries are still struggling. the limited vacation options are
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being conducted with max on board and -- masks on board and at 50% capacity. this is bloomberg. ♪
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