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tv   Whatd You Miss  Bloomberg  April 7, 2021 4:30pm-5:00pm EDT

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♪ romaine: let's take a look at where we stand in u.s. markets. good enough for a record high on the s&p 500. joe: the question is --"what'd you miss?" caroline: anchors away as stocks coming in near record highs again. jp morgan's jamie dimon says if you like booms, this one is here
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to stay, at least for the next two years. speaking of booms, sureleaf, cannabis here in the u.k. with that boom, potential decline in momentum. the question is how much cash is still coming into this market? joe: i think there is a real need for another bubble to emerge. trading volumes declined across the index. all option volumes declining, nothing stirring like crazy in the last few days, so we continue to have this record growth going up, but a little bit tired. nominal gdp just keeps going up. what you got. romaine: i got nothing. i got katie, joining us now.
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you see the transitions i make? we did see another down day here in ponce, and it seems eerily quiet. should we read anything into this drop given that stocks tend to be hitting record highs -- another down day here in bonds, and it seems airily quiet. >> i agree with joe this is a market looking for a catalyst. the same thing in the bond market. yields have really leveled off. you have seen a bid into the belly of the curve, into five-year bonds and seven-euro bonds, which is interesting. we gotta blow up jobs report friday, and still, not a lot going on, so where that comes from will be interesting. maybe it's taxes. maybe his it's a bubble we don't even know about, but again, it
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does feel eerily quiet, i would say. caroline: let us not protest too much because it's earnings next week. we might even look at fundamentals or something like that. >> i'm sure i will be regretting this, but we do have earnings, big banks kicking off. now is the time we will start to see some interesting year-over-year comparisons, when we start to get into first-quarter and second-quarter earnings. what is going to be interesting, especially with the cyclical sectors that really got hammered by the coronavirus, they will basically have to look at that with a grain of salt and look at some longer-term comparisons, but maybe it is there where we start to see the fundamentals. we need to see earnings to deliver, and maybe that will be the fuel for the next leg of this rally, or maybe we will come back to earth because again, so much has been pressed into this market. romaine: do you have a question? joe: even bitcoin is not making
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new highs. peter thiel calling for correction. >> i have some follow-ups. he is actually a crypto investor and has been in the space for a long time. we heard last night he was saying that perhaps china could use this as a financial weapon. if china is long bitcoin, what does that mean for the u.s.? i'm not sure what to make of it. it seems like he is implying china is accumulating and hoarding bitcoin -- romaine: i feel like there's probably some context missing from this. joe: you're like, joe, ask some questions and also do we care? carolyn: it couldn't -- caroline
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: it threatens many people and it threatens the u.s. dollar. maybe a page letter coming from jamie dimon, also calling for crypto regulation, also calling for the market to run hot until 2023. >> that caught attention. if you look at why 10-year treasury yields are moving, they have been driven more by real rates than anything else. it shows you markets are expecting a boom, basically. what jamie dimon is saying, that they are expecting very robust growth. that starts to get interesting when you think about risk assets. when you finally do get to positive real yields, what does that mean for the guild that has fueled all these different assets? we are still a long way away from that. when we look at 10-year yield rates, down about 70 basis points. of course, it is the direction of travel that matters, but we are still at deeply negative levels.
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romaine: coming up, a lot more to talk about. we will talk about what is going on in the cruise ship space. we will hear from ceo arnold -- from carnival cruise ceo arnold donald. coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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caroline: we are all desperate
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to get out and about, and apparently many want to go on a cruise. carnival reporting booking volumes in the first quarter 2021 90% higher than the fourth quarter of 2020 and also eclipsing 2019 at the moment. joe: this was an industry that i think some people might have thought exactly a year ago at this time it was totally dead. no one is going to want to go on cruises again, but like a lot of these reopening plays, look at that stock. still some ways to go to get too old highs, but you can see very much emblematic of what the reopening of that looks like. romaine: the big question, too, is we still have to address the fact that we had those massive losses because of what was effectively a complete shutdown, not only for carnival, but all of its competitors as well. we heard from them about their liquidity position and that they are basically going to make it
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through this ok. caroline: still losing $12 billion since covid, still burning $550 million per month. a lot of change, but the bookings look good. romaine: our "bloomberg businessweek" radio cohost caroline massar is speaking to arnold donald, carnival's ceo. caroline -- carol: arnold, first of all, great to have you with us. >> hi, carol. how are you? everything going well? carol: i'm doing ok. tell me about you. tell me about carnival. i was pulling together my notes last night and woke up this morning and had to certainly tweak them. tell me about the cdc now possibly offering to allow ships
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to be out and running by midsummer. what has changed at the cdc, and what restrictions are going to have to happen in order for that to actually come to fruition? >> as you might recall, the cdc last october issued a conditional sale order and came out in phases. the first was bringing ships back into u.s. waters, primarily with minimal crew on board. we finished that phase of it in terms of having ourselves 30 ships currently in green status. what has been issued starts to give us a specific time to be able to return and also was really not workable in the current form, but again, it just came out, and we have an opportunity to discuss with the cdc and the administration to make sure we do have something
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that is workable and hopefully that will allow us to be able to set -- sale in july, and we hope it will be something more in line with the advancement of the vaccines that has occurred and that the administration has been so successful with as well as the advancements in treatments and advancements for rapid testing, none of which existed when the original condition of sale order was red. we hope we will be able to come up with something that is practical and will allow people to return to their choice of vacation travel and get a whole lot of americans back to work. as you know, 500,000 people are impacted in the u.s. in terms of jobs outside of the cruise companies themselves. carol: it affects a lot of other jobs in other industries connected with the cruise industry. what i want to ask you is -- how much is carnival threatening to
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relocate ships to other markets outside the united states the reason for the cdc change? what happened? what were the conversations that maybe you and the other cruise line industry had with the cdc? >> there was no threat or anything. it is just a practical reality that if we are not able to sale from the u.s. in some months soon, we would have to sail from elsewhere, so some of the ships -- and a number of companies have already announced home porting from different places in the caribbean, but it is not a threat or anything. it is just a natural outcome of not being able to sale from the u.s. i'm not sure anything has changed. perhaps it has. i have not heard directly from the cdc. i think they genuinely believe the information they put out
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might allow some limited sailing as early as july, so we will have to discuss that with them. our timelines do not quite match up with that, but maybe we don't understand everything. the cdc has a job to do. i think as long as we work together with the cdc and the administration, we can get cruise back soon and safe in the interest of public health, and we can have those 500,000 workers no longer suffer from not being able to earn a wage and do their jobs. carol: does it feel like there is a more constructive conversation with the cdc right now? i ask that because i also wonder if there is kind of a last straw that if the cdc in a couple of months is not clear about what it will take to get u.s. home ported ships up and running, is there a point where you are going to say, ok, i'm done, and we are going to move ships
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abroad? >> about 59 of our ships are not under a u.s. sale order. we have announced in greece, in the u.k.. we are sailing from the canary islands, all on a limited basis at this point, but it is moving down the right -- in the right direction, but we are optimistic we will be able to do the same. i think one of the big issues is the relative mentality around risk. today, you could board a plane, fly to a country, get on a cruise ship and sale, so -- flyback from that country and come back to the united states. today, even if vaccinated, you cannot get on a cruise ship in the united states.
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if you look at other travel and entertainment sectors, you talk about spring break down in miami, or you look at arenas where people are starting to be able to attend sporting events, restaurants, hotels, air travel, there is a level of risk management and mitigation, so we would just like to be treated similarly to the rest of the travel and tourism sector, and we also already have enhanced protocols in place compared to many of those sectors. carol: forgive me for interrupting, but does it not make sense that for planes, people get on a plane and are sitting right next to each other. there seems to be kind of different requirements for people in different parts of the tourism industry, and yet, you folks are still waiting to be
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able to get up and running. does it seem like disparate treatment there in your view? >> i think everyone is trying to do what they think is best for the public's health. i think together we can work to find a solution. people say you're only on a plane for a few hours, but when you are on the plane, you're sitting next to somebody. before that, you are at an airport terminal. you land, you go to another airport terminal, then you get in an automobile or bus, and then you go places. you might go to a restaurant. you might stay at a hotel. you may go to a resort. so to compare us just to an airplane ride is inappropriate, and to compare us just to a hotel stay is inappropriate, so i think the reality is -- caroline: you have been listening there to "bloomberg businessweek" cohost carol
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massar speaking to carnival ceo arnold donald. coming up, new york moving the country a step closer to possible national cannabis legalization. this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: the push to legalize marijuana picking up another state in new york. joe: pretty extraordinary how fast this is starting to move around the country. a lot of people may have anticipated this in the wake of
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the crisis, a lot of people in a lot of different states moving very fast. it looks like the majority of states basically have some form of legalization, if it's recreational or medical. may be only a matter of time before its national policy. caroline: it goes across the atlantic as well. a couple of days ago, the mayor of london said he was looking at the benefits of decriminalizing cannabis on this side as well. this is global, not just the u.s. to talk about that very thing, let's bring in the chairman of sureleaf, which just completed an acquisition of one of the largest cannabis companies in europe. also got some funding. i know you cannot tell us with the funding is from. where is more exciting right now -- the u.s. or europe? >> obviously, the united states is where the near-term growth is going to be. the market is much more developed in europe. we have a tremendous amount of states, as you just mentioned,
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moving from medical to recreational. not only new york, minnesota, new mexico, i believe vermont and connecticut indicated they want to do it this july. i think pennsylvania will be next. when new jersey voted in november, i said i think this was a domino effect from here on, and that is what is happening. definitely, major growth is in the united states. the major focus continues to be the u.s., but europe is not far behind. europe is where we were in 2017. i think that is where europe is today, deciding to put its footprint to move our brand into europe, and we bought the largest operator in europe, and we also raise $130 million of finance. we are very excited about the european operation. europe is a capital-like model.
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the medical business in europe, it is absolutely legal in the eu, so we don't have to build these operations. we can build a centralized operation in portugal and spain, which is where we are, to distributed through europe. romaine: once you get the distribution level, you're not worried at all about impediments with regard to member states deciding they want to set their own parameters? you're certain we will have that blanket rule coming out of the eu? >> under the united nations charter, medical is legal and the eu has taken the position you can cross borders with it. there is no impediment today on medical. it can go from germany to italy to spain, to france, and to israel, so there is no impediment in europe. but i don't use, as you have heard recently, switzerland and
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holland announced adult use pilot programs. the reason they call it pilots is because of the u.s. charter. recreational and adult use cannabis is not yet recreational, but if you can -- if you call it a pilot, you can launch it, so it will be interesting to see how it develops. joe: going back to the u.s. for a second, we started with the map showing the patchwork and state regulations. how costly is that, to have -- you know, you mentioned the advantage in europe is because it is medical. how costly is it for the u.s. range of businesses to have such a wide range of legal regimes? >> last year, we spent about 105 million dollars on capital expenditures. this year, we will probably
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spend closer to 180 million dollars in capex, so that is about what we are putting to work every single year. since founding, we have probably spent close to one billion dollars, which is why we have the leadership position that we do. we are in 23 states, doing national launches of product. about 100% growth year on year. >> -- caroline: we get very excited when we look at other really ballooning industries like crypto. we like to say this is a sign of real support. what does investment mean to you? >> this particular investor is
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really excited about the european market. europe is a market that is 1.5 times bigger than the u.s. cannabis use is just as prolific as the united states, so there's a huge opportunity to think about curaleaf. in four years, we grew quite dramatically, and if that's the kind of growth prospect we could have in europe, i suspect investors believe that kind of growth we will see, and that is why we finance in europe. we also did not want to breach the veil. we wanted to obtain that legal status, so we raised money at the european level. joe: really appreciate you joining us, chairman of cural eaf. caroline: meanwhile, i'll ask
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what on earth you will be looking at when you rest your head tonight. joe: volume. overnight volume charts. romaine: let me know how it looks. caroline: that does it for "what'd you miss?" joe: "bloomberg technology" is next. ♪
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