tv Bloomberg Markets European Open Bloomberg April 7, 2021 2:00am-4:00am EDT
get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com. ♪ matt: good morning. this is the european open. i'm matt miller, live in berlin with mark cudmore joining me out of singapore to take us through all of the market action this hour. the cash trade is an hour away. here are your top headlines from the bloomberg terminal. stocks look for direction as investors digest and imf global growth upgrade and positive
notes on vaccinations. joe biden brings forward his goal for all american adults to get a shot as the u.k. begins rolling out moderna's vaccine. blockchain boom. billionaire investor mike nova grad says it's only the beginning of the crypto craze. how one of the biggest bowls is trading crypto's. mark, i wander what you think of nova grassed. it is one of the most read stories. not only is he talking on crypto , he is buying facebook shares, but he is short rates across the curve. mark: good morning. i think this makes sense. whether it's ahead for bitcoin is a slightly different view. it's unclear whether bitcoin has a correlation with many other assets. recently, it has been going up no matter what the background is.
some say it's a product of inflation. i think bitcoin, whether it succeeds or breaks down, might be more independent. however, it's true that a move higher in real yields should make the opportunity cost of bitcoin more expensive. it needs to go higher to make that expensive. matt: do you see real yields moving higher? the question is how the inflation component ax. mark: i do see real yields moving higher. you are right. the inflation is the more immediate one we are looking at. we know we will get some high inflation in the next month or two. we know that in the short-term term, you'll real yields will move higher. i think that after the print in cpi, we will see inflation come down a bit and we will see nominal yields picking higher. real yields will be higher later this year. matt: a little bit of mental
acrobatics is necessary to work out those equations. fortunately we have you with us for that. let's look at futures this morning. no strong themes coming out of asia overnight. as a result, we don't have a lot of direction here. you can see dax futures are just slightly down this morning. ftse futures are gaming -- gaining one third of 1%. that picture could change quickly, even at the live open. let's take a look at what u.s. futures are showing us after yesterday. we saw the s&p 500 drop about 1/10 of 1%. today, s&p futures are up 1/10 of 1%. really not a lot of direction there either even though we see green arrows across the screen. they are quite small. what do you see on the global macro mover screen? mark: i'm afraid that the gm
screen is backing up exactly what you said. there's no clear theme from asia. the best top market performance of the day is the indian stock market after we saw a dovish r.b.i. meeting. they did not hike rates. there was an expectation that they wouldn't hike rates. the indian rupee as the weakest currency in the fx column. opinion stocks are strong. chinese stocks are down. normally, india commodity importers, they would not necessarily be moving in the same direction. risk was up across the board. chinese stocks are down, the main bellwether in asian markets. we are seeing a confused market. matt: what is your question of the day-to-day on the mliv blog? mark: well, is the great bond selloff over? i have to say i understand why we asked the question.
i certainly support it. i'm surprised how many analysts are coming out and saying that this is it, we have seen it, it's over. we've had two days of yields coming back down since last week. the u.s. data is incredibly strong. we know there were only higher inflation prints. i find it shocking that sony people are willing to consider the idea that the bond selloff is already done. certainly, a lot of analysts are saying, it is probably done. matt: michael wilson has a euro-yen piece. i've always thought this was interesting to follow. this is what the pros watch. you can really gauge risk this way. how do you see that going after the trend higher that we have seen over the past year? mark: michael wilson is making
the point that he thinks the move is a little exhausted. as for being a respirometer, i was brought up in that fuel. it worked that way at the dfc. it was a brilliant delusion of activity. yes, ozzie yen is higher and more volatile. euro-yen is a pure, unbiased measure of the risks trade. that's no longer the case. they are both negative yielding currencies. euro-yen isn't quite the broad macro benchmark it was maybe 10 years ago. matt: he's writing about the european vaccination upgrades. this is basically a scoop yesterday from brussels. europe now expect to have enough vaccines to reach herd immunity by the end of june. not that they will be able to get them in people's arms by that time but that they will actually have them on hand which is a huge difference when we've
got this giant creaking bureaucracy making it difficult to get vaccine appointments even when they are there. how much of a difference does this look like in the rearview? as the u.s. vaccinates everybody, they are almost done, europe hasn't even started. doesn't matter? mark: that's a good question. i hope it doesn't matter by 2023. sadly, it will matter to 2022. while the u.s. has done a better job than europe, they are not almost done. i don't think they've vaccinated 50% of the population yet. there is a long way to go. the europe has done poorly. just because they have extra supply doesn't change the picture for europe. the problems of the vaccination program weren't about supply. there's a lot of bureaucracy and other problems in the rollout. i think that this will be a problem for europe into 2022.
they have the supply. this will give them a growth headwind for some time to come. matt: we have a great piece today talking about how the middle class for the first time in decades, globally, has gotten smaller. it's obviously, because of the pandemic. there's a lot of looking out in the future as to how quickly that rebound and how long-term the effect of covid is. that's more relevant for the sub-saharan and asian regions. we will talk about that throughout the program. remember, you can get up-to-date analysis and insight from mark and the rest of the team on the mliv blog. i've already got viewers writing in, giving me questions for you. later, we will talk about gold from one of art longtime viewers. ryanair sees full year net loss
of 850 million euros. this is relevant because it had gained a bigger loss, wider loss of 850 to 950. this is good news for ryanair. i guess traffic bounces back. we heard from boris johnson yesterday that he's going to push out an international travel ban until may 17. to be honest, a lot of people in england are traveling internationally anyway. coming up, billionaire investor mike nova grad says he bought facebook stock to benefit from crypto's assent. hear more from him at 7:30 u.k. time. another great conversation later this morning. the french finance minister joins us exclusively at 9:00 a.m. london time. up next, the fallout from the saga continues. we speak to deutsche bank's cohead of capital markets about the wider risk it poses to the
market going? mark: we need a catalyst. there is no obvious point on the horizon. i'm not excited about the fomc minutes coming up. the backdrop has been positive for equities. we are stretched and valuation. the dollar yields have come down the past couple of days. we will probably see quite positivity until the next big catalyst is out there. matt: we will still be excited though for the fomc minutes. i rue the day that we are not excited about fomc minutes. it's even better than the beige book. credit suisse's bill sits at $4.7 billion. it could be even higher according to jp morgan analysts. the scandal has cost two top executives their jobs. others, their bonuses. a lender has scrapped its dividend and suspended shares.
joining us now to talk about the broader implications of this blowup is henrik johnson. i wonder what you expect still to come. deutsche bank emerge from this relatively unscathed. you are already in a position where you are reducing reliance on this type of business. do you expect other blowups to come, the likes of which we saw with arc ago? henrik: thanks for having me on the show. i think it's an interesting question. what i and many other risk managers immediately asked ourselves when the news hit the tape is, what are the wider implications to the market? is there more leverage out there? can this derail the financial and economic recovery that we
have, the same way that the leveraged funds that blew up in 2000 did? so far, the answer seems to be no. valuations and investor sentiment isn't driven by excess leverage in general. as you have talked about on the show, the factors are central-bank action, excess savings that made it into the market. it appears to be an isolated incident. that's really unfortunate. i don't think it necessarily has that many implications for markets in general. mark: good morning. it won't be the broader contagion here. i'm less convinced that it will be isolated. do you think that there will be a structural change in the approach from the banking sector towards family offices in the wake of this? regulators will be focusing on that. will banks change their approach as well? henrik: this seems to be a
pretty extreme version of a family office. i think what tends to happen is when you see -- i don't want to call it a scandal. regulation does catch up with you. i'm sure that the banks will take a look at how they provide margin, especially who else is providing margin with them for individual counterparties. and apply more prudent risk management policies to that. i do expect for the regulation. there's definitely a role in the market for margin lending. as long as it is done in this it -- in a disciplined way, it can be a good part of everyone's business. matt: it's also emblematic of the amount of trading activity. not just what we have seen from professionals and funds but retail trading is off the hook.
people whom i haven't spoken within 10 years are calling me up, asking me how they can get involved in markets. we saw the whole reddit wall street thing. that has to add to volume in a lot of ways which has been great. you guys have been doing incredibly well with growth in this area. does that continue through 2021 or was this a pandemic issue that we saw? henrik: very good question. retail trading is more mature in the u.s. than it is in europe. as you said, we have -- the financial sector has been a beneficiary of increased volumes. i do think that that is really why you are seeing such resilient markets. we are setting new records all the time. the sheer amount of excess savings and central-bank money supply that is ending up in financial markets. what i think is very interesting, this is a debate i
have with investors out there, what does the reflation trade, people's forecast for u.s. treasuries and goons mean for those valuations in the equity markets? people have been paying high premiums for growth. to the extent where we are using a bigger discount rate to value that growth. in the outer years, it will be less valuable which would imply some downside in the equity markets, particularly in the highly valued growth stocks. that is something that investors are keeping an eye on. at the same time, the economic indicators are great. it does look like we will see some real momentum behind the real economy, both with the u.s. and in europe. mark: that come tradition between yield forecasts and were equity markets are pricing, i hear you.
are investors pricing in the idea that with higher inflation, we will still see slightly negative or yields? as long as inflation doesn't run away, it will justify higher equity prices. does that middle path work for you or is it not viable? henrik: i'm actually pretty bullish on things for the rest of the year. during every year, there's a time when risk sentiment sours. that will happen this year as well. the trick is forecasting when that's going to be. the risk that people are keeping an ion is losing control of inflation. we are not that worried about that. we think that central banks are going to tolerate an elevated level of inflation for some time before they start tightening. the downside will really come once tapering hits the market,
similar to the taper tantrum of a few years ago. central banks are still perceived to be such an important factor in the valuations of all financial markets. matt: we will keep you with us. we have a lot more to talk about with henrik johnsson. deutsche bank ag london, -- we had an ipo flop last week. we will discuss what it means. is this a souring and risk sentiment or is it any yesterday protest? coming up, the imf rages -- raises its global for -- growth forecast for the second time in three months. this is bloomberg. ♪
trading. the ftse is doing well in terms of futures. futures on the continent not doing much. one of the questions we've had over the last week, is london really still the place to be in terms of trading? henrik johnsson. the delivery of ipo was not a good luck. is that a london versus europe or new york issue? is not a risk sentiment issue? was that just an industry problem that investors are voicing? henrik: i think it was a combination of a lot of different things. esg being one of them. i will pick up on that. it's an interesting topic, what is happening everywhere around that. people are trying to make it a nationalism story. london versus european listing venues versus new york. i think that's the least important thing. the reality is that investors are very flexible and able to invest irrespective of the
listing place, for the most part. i think it's an unfortunate kind of pricing failure with some downside risk for the people that participated. you could easily say that some of the tech ipos that have increased in value by 30 or 40%, maybe they got the price wrong as well. it's a difficult process. i don't think you can drop too many to can -- draw too many conclusions about london from one ipo. mark: do you think that the whole esg focus, many investors are saying the ethical issues around work contracts. it seems to me that it's a regulatory concern. they don't think that the business model can cope with the fact that there might be a change. is it an ethical decision or esg is driven by profit concerns?
henrik: the good thing about esg and finance is that the two are becoming very linked. investors can have moral and financial perspectives when they think about things therein esg lunch. we have introduced esg to the leverage finance markets. it didn't exist six months ago. now it's one of the most important topics. the same way we used to provide ratings advisory service. now we are providing esg service. for investors, is one of the most important factors in deciding what to invest in. i think investors are genuinely concerned about esg elements. also because there investors, pension funds and private individuals, are trying to express of you that they care about. how companies and issuers act. what's interesting about rew is that it was the social aspects
rather than the environmental aspects. the s rather than the ee which caused investor concerns. that is absolutely regulatory. i think it's a good way of looking at businesses. many businesses, especially internet businesses, environmental factors aren't that big a deal for them. regulatory and social factors can be. it's great that we are being held to a higher standard. matt: maybe regulatory can tie those things together. you want to incentivize the esg issue so that it's a profit game but for the right reasons. i wish we had more time with you. it's always great to get your insight. thanks for joining us this morning. henrik johnsson. coming up, mike said that he has bought facebook stocks to benefit from crypto assent. hear more from the billionaire investor, next.
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matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." we are just 30 minutes away from the start of cash equity training. ftse futures are moving higher about a half a percent. a little bit of diversions between what is going on in u.k. and what is going on here in europe, just like there is a divergence between the u.s. and europe. feels like everyone else in the western world has gotten their shots. even the little kids are all immunized.
i am going to still be waiting months. surely, there will be a million bureaucratic hoops to jump through. what does this mean? mark: i understand your jealousy. i have not got mine here but i am hoping in the next month or two. dave urgency -- the divergence he in the u.s. and europe. this two things. one, the imf's role is not to lead the world forecasters. it is more to provide partnerships to validate the forecast. the other story, this really is about the u.s. forecast tremendously. if you look at the chart on the screen, you can see that six
months ago, before the election, it was europe expecting growth to 5.5% for 2021. how much has changed in six months? now, the u.s. is at 5.6%. it continues to be upgraded for weeks. european growth, 4.2% and teach -- and continues to go lower as we continue to get more lockdowns. this divergence we are seeing, it is not just a divergence and growth. a massive shift in direction from the expectation of just six months ago. matt: i think that diversions is so fascinating as manus and ann marie would say. that bifurcation. especially because it is in a short time period, the effects
and what they would be. will we just about back to an equilibrium, or will it drag out into the future? another big story we are watching right now is samsung, south korea's biggest company, the behemoth there, has seen profit for the fourth-quarter rise 44% from the prior year in preliminary results that it released early. let's get more from juliette saly. it seems that samsung cannot thank its flagship phone enough for the numbers. juliette: the galaxy s21 offsetting those concerns. we also saw sales rise. samsung gave a warning to the market that there may be a dent
to the market. it is a behemoth, clearly shown on this chart, showing how much of an impact samsung has a stock --a stock has on the overall kospi. the pullback is about double the level of last year. the city expecting you will see a rebound in the second quarter in its chips division. when it comes to some of the other reactions, looking pretty strong today. the kospi rising free fifth session. of course, analysts waiting on april 29. to delve further into these numbers after the preliminary today. mark: across the sea in tokyo, we saw a massive buyout offer from toshiba. juliette: we have been waiting for that all day.
finally, on the close, selloff matching each other at one point. toshiba rising i some 18%. the stock took december -- lifting the stock to december 2016 highs. it received a buyout offer. the nikkei has reported this could be worth $20 billion. a former -- a formal proposal to be unveiled later today. that would make it the largest private equity buyout since 2018. toshiba saying it is still seeking more information as it weighs the proposal. matt: i was thinking earlier, it is a foreign concept to me that someone would use a phone that is not an iphone. i don't get why you would by not an apple phone. now i see that mark cudmore is one of these strange aliens who does not use ios.
how do you get through your day if you don't have imessage? what are you doing? mark: i don't even know what i am missing out on. i have never seen imessage. i don't have a lot of these things. never been on facebook, never been on instagram, not on twitter. matt: i guess that is respectable. juliette i think is on instagram , as am i. juliette: i am on everything written -- on everything. i was going to say, i am surprised, matt, you are not using a nokia. matt: he is probably using one of those flip out communicators. let's get the bloomberg business flash. for that, we go to apple iphone user laura wright.
laura: agreeing to buy stock jen in a cash deal that would see it become europe's second-biggest provider of exchange traded products. they have entered into exclusive negotiations and expect the deal to close by february of next year. bloomberg has learned that audio-based social network clubhouse is reportedly in talks to raise funding from investors in a round that values it at about $4 billion. less than a year old, clubhouse has already hosted some of the biggest names in business in hollywood. indian e-commerce giant flip cart looking to be aiming for a fourth-quarter ipo. the company, controlled by walmart, has reportedly set up an internal ipo team and is leaning toward a traditional debut in the u.s., after exploring a spac listing.
that is the bloomberg business flash. matt: laura wright with your business flash. nft. non-fungible tokens. the latest buzzword in the blockchain boom. galaxy digital founder and ceo mike nova grad says we are only in the early days of the crypto art phase. he told bloomberg that global wealth in cryptocurrencies will just keep growing. >> the s and p on the year up small. bitcoin is up. a theory of had a monster move. you are seeing money continue to pour into the space. we just went over to trillion dollars of wealth, market cap in crypto. that is a pretty significant number. there is $140 trillion of u.s. wealth.
we are now up to have a percent of global wealth is in crypto. that is growing. i think it will be a percent by the end of the year. >> we have seen a lot of usage in digital art, but what else could this actually be used for? >> nft's are going to be with us for the rest of our lives. art on the blockchain, collectibles on the blockchain, ip on the blockchain, it is all happening. we are in the early stages. so much that there are little mini bubbles that will pop up and down. don't miss the big picture. this is fundamentally going to change how we secure intellectual property from now, going forward. taylor: in my right to make the -- am i right to make the distinction that this is not necessarily a bitcoin boom, it is a crypto, ethereum, blockchain as well that you are following? mike: 100%. galaxy digital made investments
in over 100 companies around the space. protocols, security companies, custody companies. and to nft companies. >> it is not only starting to appeal to corporations but a lot of talk of how governments could start getting involved. what happens if that happens? i keep hearing it pitched as a good thing. i am not quite sure i understand how. mike: there is a bunch of lanes in crypto. bitcoin has carved out this lane of store of value, digital gold. most governments don't care if people are putting their money in gold. if they do a horrific job managing their finances, more people want to take their money out of that country. and put it somewhere else that is safe. bitcoin is being seen as that place in the digital world. i don't think bitcoin will be what we use to buy shoes or
sunglasses. you will see stable coins, central bank issued digital currencies. matt: that was mike novogratz, galaxy digital founder and ceo, talking about what he calls a blockchain boom. novogratz is undeniably cool with the hoodie, and he is bald. but he will obviously be talking his books in terms of crypto's because he owns them. it is weird when he gets behind nft's. is anybody behind nft's, anybody with real street credit? mark: first of all, i have to challenge the idea that being bald is an element of coolness. some people are very smart people in the blockchain space,
very aggressively into nft's. i had a friend who talked, on the show a couple weeks ago who tried to convince me to corner part of the nft space. i laughed at them and of course i have the idiot now. this is just another element of the blockchain world. i still think that how much blockchain is going to revolutionize the world is underestimated in the financial sector. i also still have a suspicion of the validity of some of these things as currencies. you could argue that bitcoin is the ultimate tool of speculation, therefore it could take hold's -- take gold's place in the portfolio. even the biggest advocates do not argue use it for anything useful. i am always a little bit behind in these things. but, there are many smart people
who are very big into it. it does not shock me too much. matt: novogratz uses an iphone. he definitely uses an iphone. if i message him, it will be blue. if i message you, a will be green. i can't facetime you. i want to see what is up with you, not just here you. maybe i will get you an iphone and just send it to you. mark, thanks so much for that color commentary. coming up, the u.k. start rolling out the moderna shot. new evidence of lasting six months. also, the u.k. has stopped trials on astrazeneca in children. there are just bad headlines for the astrazeneca vaccine. more on the rollout next. this is bloomberg. ♪
>> it is good news that we begin to see some good evidence of antibody protection lasting at least six months. that is as long as we have tested. we expect will get more and more data first from that earlier study and from larger studies we did. lots more to come on that but that is encouraging. as for the variants, our immune system is trained to detect many hundreds of threats on a daily basis. variants will look like slightly different threats and in some cases, they have shown they can evade the immune response partially. what we have shown so far is that some of the immune system continues to attack the
variants. we will have to keep a close eye on which variants are beginning to exist. we have started developing, in case we need them, additional mrna vaccines that will target these additional variants whether it is the original vaccine, some combination of these, this manifests changes to fight back against our immune systems. matt: that was noubar afeyan, the cofounder of moderna. the moderna vaccine will start rolling out in the u.k. today. renewed concerns over astrazeneca shots. president biden says he wants all americans to be eligible for a vaccine by april 19.
keep moving those goal posts forward, because the u.s. is doing so well in terms of rolling out the vaccine. let's go over to sam, who leads our pharma coverage. first, let's talk about how well the rollouts are going. as many people as there are adults in germany. it looks like. immunity should be reached -- it looks like herd immunity should be reached during the summer there. >> i think if they continue with that pace and get people fully vaccinated, then the u.s. can potentially be the first to achieve that number. amongst the bigger nations. mark: good morning. one of the things that concerns
me is we are seeing a great improvement in the situation in the u.k.. but then i look at chile which is seeing no improvement despite similar levels of vaccinations. is the u.k. improvement really down to a lockdown? does that mean that as the u.k. starts to open up, we might see a severe bump up in cases in that's again? -- cases and deaths again? sam: i think in the case of chi le, they just went into a lockdown. what the u.k. did, in terms of a severe lockdown, giving the vaccine and opportunity to give immunity before they get infected at high rates. chile has just last week started its lockdown. they are using a different vaccine. we don't actually know what
efficacy it has because they have never published the data from phase three trials. that you have the situation where i think israel is the one to keep an eye on. they got to a high level of vaccination, nowhere near the 70%, 80%. they started on rolling or reopening their lockdown from early february with the same sort of timeline that the u.k. is doing. they have not seen a big jump in cases yet and they do have the so-called b-17 variant that is seen in the u.k.. that gives us hope. but there are modelers out there who say -- it will be interesting to see how that -- matt: thanks very much for joining us. sam fazeli, who runs our pharma coverage for bloomberg intelligence and actually runs
matt: welcome back to "bloomberg markets: the european open." we are just less than seven minutes away from the start of equity trading. it is going to be exciting in london. maybe less so in paris and frankfurt. let's get over to dani burger. she has some of the individual stock stories. davi: i get to put my etf hat on -- dani: i get to put my etf hat on. lyxor buying amundi from socgen. also keep an eye on ryanair,
saying that their loss for the full year will be less than they predicted. low end of the range is now an 800 million euros loss. they are warning that traffic outlook will be slowing because of the slow rollout of vaccines. a banner trading update, japanese and chinese shipping as well. i also want to mention costco, their earnings had the best analyst exchange i have heard. saying they are paying 45% more for bacon prices. are we seeing a panic run on bacon yet? if there is anything we have done during this pandemic, it is probably panic run on bacon. matt: dani burger, thanks very much. this reminds me, mark cudmore, you had a thing for a while for
fake meat. how is that going? mark: as far as i know, they certainly have permission for the chicken nuggets but right now, stake later on this year, wagyu, the full range of chicken and beef. this is one of the big revolutions that will happen in the world the next couple of years. suddenly, most of our land is used for livestock or growing crops for feeding livestock. matt: i think you may be right. i have yet to taste it. but i think certainly in the next few decades, it is going to be a massive industry to compete with real, live animals. no one wants to kill cows but stakes -- but steaks are so good.
matt: welcome back to the european market open. a few minutes until cash equity trading. let's get the headlines. looking for direction as investors read into possible vaccination. president biden brings forth his goal for all american adults to get his shot is a u.k. begins rolling out vaccines. both countries doing well with strategies. billionaire investor says it is
only the beginning of the cryptocurrency craze. how one of the biggest bowls is trading crypto and what else. let's take a look at futures before the market opens. ftse futures have been up and still gaining. we don't see a lot of direction. dax futures are down. french futures, cap futures are up. here is the global macro move screen. you can see that equity indexes and it will populate as they open up. the ftse is on the rise this morning. now up almost a third of 1%. the ibex is now open in madrid, gaining. spanish benchmark doing better. parents, has opened up.
as is germany's dax index in frankfurt. european equity indexs are on the rise this morning. maybe some of that global growth optimism is spreading out to equity. we will continue to see new record highs, on the stoxx 600 here and do record highs, maybe another one today. on the s&p 500 when they open in new york. credit suisse is still for the blog, it currently sits at $4.7 billion. it could be higher, according to jp morgan analysts who see the possibility of another $4 million -- $4 billion. it has cost jobs and bonuses and
the lender has scrapped its dividend and suspended sure buybacks. -- share buybacks. that is a story we will continue to follow for you. another big story, we had an interview with mike, he says nft is the latest buzz word and blockchain whom. galaxy digital founder and ceo mike says we are only in the early stages of the crypto art craze. he says it will continue growing. >> up small and bitcoin is up 100%. this week, a theory him, the second-largest cryptocurrency had a big move. what you're saying is money continuing to pour in. we just had over $2 trillion market cap well in crypto.
$140 trillion in u.s. wealth, $400 trillion in global wealth. half of global wealth isn't in crypto and growing. >> you are seeing a lot of use in digital art, where do you see this going. what else is this used for. -- used for? mike: nft's will we both us -- will be with us. it is all happening. we are in the very early stages. so much that there is little many bubbles that will pop up and down, do not miss the big picture. this is fundamentally going to change how we secure intellectual property from now and going forward. >> and my right to make the distinction that this is not a bitcoin boom, this is a crypto, a block chain boom as well they
were following? mike: 100%. fallacy digital was set up to participate in the system, we have made investments in over 100 countries around the space -- in and around the space. >> talk a little more about how it is not only building to corporations but there is also talk about governments that could get involved in this, what happens if that happens? i keep hearing it pitch as a good thing and i'm not understanding how. mike: there are a bunch of different lanes in crypto. bitcoin is carved out as a lane of sort value. most governments do not care if people are putting their money in gold. if they do a horrific job manner -- managing their finances, more people will want to take money out of that country summer else. right now it is being seen as
that place, i don't think we are going to use it to buy shoes, sunglasses, diet coke's. you will see bank issued digital currency five for that space. -- currency vie for that space. matt: crypto's as part of the blockchain whom. he was also talking about shorting raids, fascinating stuff. we will play more of it for you throughout the day and you can see it on bloomberg.com. want to talk to you about the ruby falling to its lowest level. you can now buying 74.22 ruby with one u.s. dollar. it continues to weaken. let's get first word news and go to london with laura wright.
laura: the trial of astrazeneca vaccine in children has been paused while the regulator investigate the rare cases of blood clots in adults. moderna is being rolled out as the uk's third vaccine option. that is as a new study finds antibodies from the south remain active for at least six months. >> whether it is a variant vaccine or the original vaccine or some combinations of these, we want to be one or two steps ahead of the virus. laura: president biden says all americans over the age of 18 will be eligible for the vaccine by april 19, two weeks earlier than the previous goal. he also warns that while there has been progress against the pandemic, new variants are spreading. the white house has ruled out so-called vaccine past points --
vaccine passports for worry of vaccine -- worry of privacy concerns. according to a statement on social media, he has a severe cough and other prisoners in his unit have been hospitalized with tuberculosis. officials say he is refusing for -- refusing the request for outside treatment. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt: laura, thank you very much. laura wright in london with first word news. coming up, we speak exclusively with french finance minister bruno le maire or, francine lacqua will. this is an interview you will not want to miss. this is bloomberg. ♪
if you are a large trading partner of the u.s. more generally, we know that when interest rates go up in response to positive news, that is not terribly damaging emerging-market. on the other hand, the fast recovery, if there is price tightening in financial conditions, that is a concern i want to mention a couple of things, unlike 20, emerging markets had a much larger reserve and much smaller deficit. what they are doing right now is not the high they are in deep crisis and they have physical means. i think we could see countries that have high levels of vulnerability, height dollar following -- high dollar ball have high dollar borrowing. matt: that was imf chief
economist speaking after they updated their growth forecast for the second time in a three month period. . interesting to watch those meetings and they will continue throughout this week. we are 12 minutes into the session. you can see the ftse is up 5% and that dax and cap are gaining as well. europe 600 is . in terms of what we see on the broader indexes it is a drop. that is weighing us down. we will keep an eye on it because the 600 is near the all-time record high. state look at what is on the
move in terms of individual stocks with bloomberg's dani burger. dani: warning about lower traffic volumes for the fiscal year, given that the vaccine rollout in europe has slowed. that warning there. the biggest loser, currently facing a suit by fox. it hasn't option to invest in sandal. there isn't argued there about the valuation that sucks we pay. let's move to the upside. in a $980 million deal they are buying, it will make it the biggest -- second-biggest etf. the dollar looks like it may be able to break some of the 4 bay st that we have seen.
-- 4 bay st -- four day streak. we are looking at copper is down. as for the sensitive assets, will that carry over to equities? at the moment u.s. futures barely hanging on. matt: thank you very much, dani burger they're looking at some of the individual movers. i am noticing the downside. holding the broader benchmark down. this airline says they will stronger to make a profit with a slow vaccine rollout delay. it says it will make a pretty big loss. the ceo michael o'leary has
remained optimistic for a bounce back but we have gotten new news since then. joining us now to talk more about ryanair is one of our team members. what are they telling us now about the loss, is it better than previously expected? >> ryanair is forecasting a slightly lower loss in the year that ended on march 31. they are also warning that they do not share the optimism, of the year that began april 1. they are not really sure about what is going to happen in the year ahead. that is due to the fact that across europe we are seeing lockdowns being reinstated and
skepticism about whether or not travel might stop in may or not. as you know some revenues are crucial and ryanair is one of those. matt: of course. it is vacation time when everyone has to travel in business does not stop. that is happening as well. i wonder what has changed in their thinking given that michael o'leary told burke at the end of march, a few weeks ago, that he expects summer traffic to rebound. listen to michael o'leary in an interview. >> once the school and holidays arrive, june, july, august, we will see a significant recovery in travel. you will not see long-haul recovery in summer, but those
who would have gone far will holiday at home. matt: what changed since then? boris johnson, extending the international travel ban and saying it could go beyond may 17? >> i think that is partly to blame. they're also blaming the slow rollout and the new lockdowns that are coming up. they are all playing into the various reasons for them not being as bullish as they were a week or two ago. matt: you're in london, talk to me about what the international travel ban really means. all of my friends who live in london have no problem flying to paris or going to florida to get
a vaccine, people are leaving the u.k., are they cheating? siddharth: according to the rules, you can leave the country for a variety of reasons including business, education, and a whole bunch of reasons. the government has made it tougher for some people to leave. they banned travel from the u.k. at the beginning of january and now they have followed that up with penalties as well. it does not seem to be stopping a lot of people from traveling, at the same time, a lot of people are looking to travel around and make the most of summer. matt: thank you very much for joining us. siddharth from our transfer team. matt: maybe one reason people
>> i am sure in a lot of interest rates, the one thing that hurts is inflation. it happened so fast that everyone gets hit with an explosion of growth. one million jobs and then one million jobs and that is how it happens. being short is a great hedge. crypto or non-crypto. matt: very cool stuff there from our interview yesterday of billionaire investor mike. i want to move back to the vaccine story. the u.k. will begin rolling out the moderna vaccine among concerns of the astrazeneca shot continue and the shortfall of doses this month.
the moderna vaccine on the positive side, the success of the vaccine program, the plan to fully reopen the british economy in june. for the latest on the vaccine rollout, let's get to sam, he leads our coverage. i just want to tell you something, a positive antidote i heard from an interview we were doing yesterday on bloomberg radio. as you know, i am annoyed i have not been able to get a vaccine that nobody i know in germany has been able to get a vaccine while everyone i know in the u.s. is vaccinated. i talked to an imf official and he said germany follows a more unilateral approach. you do not want germany to have an "america first" type of
approach. they want everyone to vaccinate at a similar pace. that seems like a pretty good excuse to me. is that, to some extent true? sam: i would love that to be true. it does not quite tell you with the shouting and screaming with regards to where are our doses and if you do not deliver the doses we will stop the vaccine being exported, if that is true, why has italy held back doses to go to australia, etc.? i would love to live in that world. i do not think we are actually living in that world. matt: maybe because the australians are also subject to the queen. i was hoping the eu wanted to
stop exports to the u.k. as part of the exit fight. -- brexit fight. how important is it to get everyone vaccinated? we are also focused, maybe it is my fault, on the u.s., the u.k., and europe. how important is it that we get africa, and asia vaccinated? in order to bring this pandemic to an end, we hear this -- these concerning stories about not only problems economically but also about the variations. sam: it is critical. at the end of the day, when you have -- i'm going to use a metaphor, when it is on fire, it is not good enough to put one out you have to put the whole thing out. on the other hand, human nature says you will run into your
house first. it is an unfortunate balancing act and one tough to manage. they are suffering expecting vaccines and doses and you know as an international body that if you do not put this virus out it will keep coming out and create potential for variance. i think a lot of countries will focus on trying to get their home sorted first before spending energy helping others. matt: right. you have to put on your own mask for the mask for someone else. i think it is the story -- maybe one that i have not been paying enough attention to. bloomberg has a great piece about the contraction of the
we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction... ...and learn how much you can save at xfinitymobile.com/mysavings. matt: welcome back to bloomberg markets. this is the european open and we are half an hour in. we are looking at gains on the ftse, the stoxx 600, broader benchmark index is gaining back to hit new record highs. let's take a look at which sectors are on the move using group rights returns scream. you can use this on any bigger indexes. auto parts and automakers are big gainers again today, insurance is up again as well as
banks. you also has telecom and media. i started my career over 20 years ago covering those. techs are the biggest loser, travel and leisure, and health care as well. consumer products and services, there is a new lettering system from the s and p. let's get your bloomberg first word news, let's go back to london and laura wright. laura: the trial of astrazeneca's vaccine in children has been paused while the u.k.'s drug regulator investigates where cases of blood clots in adults. moderna is rolling out the u.k.'s third vaccine option two weeks earlier than expected.
after they find antibodies remain active in the shop for six months. >> whether a variant vaccine or the original, or some combination, we want to be one to two steps ahead of the buyers. -- ahead of the virus. laura: all americans over the age 18 will be eligible by april 19, two weeks earlier than the previous goal. biden also warns that while there has been progress, new variants are progressing quickly. the vaccine passport is not happening right now because of concerns about privacy. to run rejected a u.s. proposal for oil revenue in exchange for exemption of uranium. iran's lead negotiators that
diplomats will meet again on friday. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. matt: laura, thank you so much. laura wright there with your first word news. the emergence of a global middle class has been one of the most significant trends in the past few decades. certainly, for macro investors that is true. that phenomenon has been upended by the coronavirus pandemic. the demographic shrank last year for the first time since the 1990's, with about 150 million people falling out of the middle class, the global middle class, down the ladder. let's get more from one of our economics reporters. it is an incredibly important story that you ended team have
worked up here, especially for macro investors and economists. when i first read -- the first few paragraphs i thought, this is no big deal because we are in the midst of a recovery in all of the jobs lost will come right back with the same wages or better, but then i realized there is a massive emergence and the way of economies around the world are recovering, it is not all about what happens in new york, right? michelle: that is right. we are having to pay attention to the bifurcation story. we have been hearing the warnings, which are addressing that this morning at their meetings. we are curing that the emerging markets are not recovering fast enough and this will come back to haunt developed markets and the economy as a whole.
we are seeing it circling the numbers. a similar one were even the world bank is staring down poverty. in my latest estimate, advanced economies will recover faster even though the upgraded their growth outlook, they did warned that developing economies might not see pre-pandemic levels until a full year later than more advanced economies. that is certainly a warning to all, especially for those in markets, the recovery is not totally underway and a lot of places and might take longer. our point was to take a look on the ground and get a feel for some of these people whose status is under threat, what happened to them, to see their hope shattered, do they have hope, what measures might help
them as they adapt to this new economy? matt: michelle, some western economies -- not germany, to be clear -- that they will reach heard of unity as june or july. clearly, that is not the case for the rest of the world, right? while maybe risk assets have come back even in emerging markets, people with higher incomes that are exposed to the market are fine, the jobs have not. the virus is still spreading. how much harder is it for people in the middle class -- let's be clear, people who make $10-$100 a day? michelle: it is hard to define in one swoop. we have you some numbers that the association has used. we look at the front of
economies and have the people tell us themselves what is middle class and decide whether they feel they are in it or are dropping out and will never get back in. looking across india, brazil, africa, the ones we focus on, it is hard to find any commonality across these markets. looking at these and really diving into what happens to these people without sort of status, we found job loss in different streams of income that hamper emerging markets more than advanced economies. foreclosure and inability to pay rent, a lot of problems that might be faced by lower income folks in advanced economies but not as many solutions and slower solutions. a lot of these governments were able to promote the stimulus prominent -- stimulus programs and get targeted support to the people who needed it, but that
has been the big challenge in this pandemic. we are also dealing with slower vaccination drives. we see the u.s. and the u.k. roaring back but now we see vaccine nationalism especially in places. it will take a while for this to filter through to the economies that need it. some of these are disproportionately relying on tourism, like thailand and dealing with a longer time line for travel restrictions. matt: i am chomping at the bit to get back to indonesia and doing everything i can for their economy. michelle, corporations take this point, part of their strategy for decades has been the growth of the global middle class, what can we do in order to fix this problem? we want them to get back to
earning money so they can buy stuff, right? what can we do? is, vaccinations the main answer? michelle: i think that is the top priority, especially going back, their message has been consistent that you need to do the vaccinations first. the message of not this -- not just those organizations but all. you will hear a lot more of that , especially with emergence of the virus in places like indonesia, and are having an impact on markets. that is probably priority number one. second, i would think a lot of the stimulus, trying to make sure it does not completely run out, that there is no cliff, we heard this top when the u.s. came out with their latest package, a lot of governments do not have the luxury of pumping
out trillions of dollars. there will be a question of how long to keep the support. lastly, it is a question of the timeline and how they have loosened those mobility restrictions. that is something that thailand is facing, having relied 1/5 of their gdp for tourism, they are now struggling to figure out, how can we attract us to respect -- how can we attract those towards back to get the growth that we need? matt: michelle, thank you for joining us. a well written and reported story. i know you worked with a huge team to put this together for burke and i appreciate it. michelle, senior asia reporter. i recommend everyone go on the terminal, web, or bloomberg to read about this, the shrinking
matt: welcome back to european markets. 45 minutes into the trading day. we see the ftse up. not a lot of movement in terms of european equity indexes. moving back to asia for a moment. we are getting headlines out from an exclusive interview. saying that the bank of indonesia mandate should include growth and jobs, their growth will rebound 27% year-over-year into the second quarter -- to 7 % year-over-year into the second quarter. also discussing tesla and indonesia. you can watch that in an
exclusive interview throughout the day on bloomberg television and you can also see it on the website, bloomberg.com. right now i want to get a bloomberg business flash and we go back to london with laura wright. laura: a 20 $500 million cash deal, the two funds have entered into exclusive negotiation and expect the deal to close by february of next year, after the acquisition, they will have 14% of europe's etf market. after travel restrictions, europe's biggest discount carrier forecast traffic and will probably fall at the low end. earlier this week, the u.k. government warned that a may
target date to reopen could flip. some ferns -- firms saw a prophet based on the early release. strong gadget sales, the world strongest maker of memory chips warned about recent demands. semi conductors are now rising in price. that is the bloomberg business flash. matt: laura, thank you. laura wright with your business flash. the u.k. will begin rolling out the moderna vaccine later today. you may have hurt us tell you at least 20 times. it is two weeks earlier and there is a lot of reason for optimism as test show optimism in it lasting six months.
a concern about the shortfall in doses of astrazeneca and a problem or stoppage, i should say, not a problem, with trial on children. in terms of moderna, new data shows antibodies from the shock last up to six months, the cofounder noubar afeyan said it is also effective against a range of variance. listen to the interview. noubar: it is good news that we are beginning to see good evidence of antibody protection lasting at least six months, that is as long as we had to test it and we expect we will get more and more data, both from the earlier study and from the larger studies that we did later in 2020. lots more to come on that. that is encouraging. as for the variance -- variants,
our system is to detect threats. they have shown they can evade the immune response partially. what we have shown is that some of the immune system continues to attack the variants and we will have to keep a close eye on which ones exist. we have also started developing additional mrna vaccines that will target these variants. whether it is the original or of a variant, we will continue to monitor it. >> moderna has been testing the vaccine, my children are nia true, what you know so far and when do you think the soonest is
that that age group will be vaccinated? noubar: these trials are done in a very prescribed way and we do not get early information, when we get information is when we generally disclose it to the public as we did in the main trials that we did last year, phase one, phase two, phase three. this will be the same. i do not want to give a sense of when it might be concluded, but suffice to say over the coming months, we expect to begin to gather data and share it to the public as to whether we see differences in the efficacy safety. i should say that in the younger population we are also testing some lower doses because we expect perhaps some of those -- we want to make sure we get the right dose. more to come on that.
over the coming months i think is a reasonable expectation, i cannot be more specific. emily: interesting, ok. it is hard to believe moderna was just a start up a few years ago that you started building in-house at flagship, door venture capital firm that is focused on biotechnology, you also got another company that is working on world treatment to fight covid that is seeing some promising results. how confident are you that a drug will be able to save you if you get covid? noubar: everything we can do based on biomedical research to delay, deter, attack this virus, we need to do it. what you are seeing is this industry that has largely been out of the mainstream, conscious of the world is suddenly being
called into action to provide any and all means to beat back this virus. another one of our countries is showing interesting data. their treatments -- in their treatments. we need to let the science dictate our decision-making, we need evidence and control trials. as we get that i believe the arsenal of approaches to be back this virus even is -- even as it infects people will grow rapidly. matt: moderna;s cofounder speaking with our own emily chang. we have just gotten french pmis out as well. the preliminary number was 47.8, these are just confirmations of
matt: welcome back to the open. we are almost an hour into the session. the ftse is rallying 1%. not a lot of action otherwise in terms of equity index on the continent. we have some real movement in some, in a lot of different asset classes for different reasons, laura cooper from our at life team has had an important piece for journalists to read. playing the game of pinning a narrative on price action. i have been doing this for 20 years, laura, what kind of narrative can you see in the rate movements we saw yesterday? laura: the movement that we saw in the rates yesterday was one of paring back of those aggressive rate hikes.
it is too soon to call that a sustained trend, we are seeing those 10 year treasury yields steady ahead of the potentially big fomc meeting. there is a wait and see. to see if that there --there is a wait and see period. that is also feeding into equities. matt: thank you very much. our macro strategist, laura cooper. all the work she and her teammates do by writing mliv go on your terminal. i had to jerry rig away to find it, it would be great if there was a live button.
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