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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  April 1, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EDT

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lln low-income americans with the tools and resources they need to be ready for anything. i hope you're ready. 'cause we are. manus: good warning -- good morning. i am manus cranny. the top stories. pres. biden: the american jobs plan is the biggest increase in government spending on record. it will boost american innovative edge and global
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leadership is up for grabs. manus: joe biden says the infrastructure plan will bring everybody along. france heads into a four-week lockdown s coronavirus spirals in europe. deutsche bank avoids a hit with the speedy sale. it is a bloomberg exclusive. good morning and welcome. joe biden is on a train, $2.25 trillion of stimulus on board. i put it to you. there is a great distance between ambition and delivery on this plan. part of it is about fighting back against china. therein lies the point. upgrading r and d, raising corporate taxes. 28% from 21%. what will be the impact on stocks?
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that is the question. annmarie: certainly that is the question in terms of the impact of the financial market. but also, that is a big risk. can he get support from the republicans? mitch mcconnell is saying it is a trojan horse. infrastructure in naaman. the republicans do not like those tax hikes. inflation, is there too much exuberance to the market that we will see inflation rise? these are the debates economists will be having around this plan? manus: mohamed el-erian said tax cuts around trump created a buyback dividend. here we are, a potential corporate tax hike by joe biden. they can get through it, manage. it will not knock off the investment plan for the united states. let's dig a little bit deeper. annmarie: $2.25 trillion in infrastructure. the plan relies on higher corporate levies.
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biden emphasized that his plan includes the creation of union jobs, which will boost america's innovative edge against china. pres. biden:. the biggest increase in research and development spending on record. it will boost america's innovative edge. markets like battery technology, biotechnology, computer chips, clean energy, competition with china in particular. manus: we spoke exclusively with the dallas fed president robert kaplan. he struck a bullish tone on the biden plan. >> the nice and desirable thing for me about infrastructure spending, it is a long-term investment. it should help in future create higher potential gdp growth, higher sustainable growth, better productivity. i would differentiate
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infrastructure spending from other spending. annmarie: momentum building in the equity markets. green on the screen after this pittsburgh address from president joe biden. asian equities taking a cue. the nasdaq yesterday, really an outperform or come up 1.5%. this morning, futures higher. bonds a little bit lower but steady. oil this morning, will they or won't they add more oil? you have to think the timing is interesting given that we are hitting announcements of more lockdowns in france, in canada. it will be hard for them, those who are bullish like the russians, to add more timing. joining us now, chief investment officer. good morning to you. let's start with what is driving the markets. that is finally details around
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biden's stimulus plan. >> my take on the situation is that we are positive on the market. i think the biden plan is very much related to an increase in taxes. this was well advertised in advance. our take on what is going to happen with this new stimulus package is there is going to be spending and also tax increases that might be backloaded. a further boost to the economy in the short term. i think this is a reason why the stock orchids this morning are positive. manus: good to have you with us. the debate is the trump tax cuts, they gave us buybacks. the biden chain -- the biden train stimulus could give us tax hikes. do you agree with mohamed
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el-erian, a little bit of buybacks off the board? >> what you have to have in mind is prior to the trump administration, the tax rate was 35%. going back to 28%. that is still below 35%. it is true that the tax cut gave a one-time boost to the economy under the trump administration. as far as biden is concerned, i think there is a political choice. we have had a one time package comedy $1.9 trillion -- one time package to kickstart the economy. this new package of $2.25 trillion is going to be a more long-term growth type of stimulus. annmarie: we have not seen this
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in america since lbj great society, fdr, the new deal. is this the right approach, government spending? or should this be left to the private sector? stephane: i think generally speaking, it is better when there is investment by both the government and private sector. by trying to increase the potential rate of growth, i guess the u.s. administration is also hoping that there will be a follow on by private investment. what is really clear at this stage, if you look at the world map, there are two countries, two i would say type of regimes, the u.s. on one side and china on the others. i think they have managed the situation differently. i would say china has dealt very well with the pandemic to start with.
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i would say still quite a lot of growth. we are expecting 9% growth in china this year which is very positive. if i compare with the u.s. administration with a have not managed the pandemic very well. we are expecting 6.5% growth for the american economy which is very positive and that has not happened in a long time. manus: looking at what jeffrey gundlach had to say last night, the total unfunded liabilities in america. this fiscal plan some would say is an incendiary device, potentially, for unseating the dollar's rally and pushing higher. where will to $.25 trillion impact most?
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on the dollar or yields? stephane: as far as the dollar's concerned, i think there is an element of rally that is already behind us. further appreciation of the dollar, kind of medium-term outlook is for depreciation of the u.s. dollar. as far as bond yields are concerned, i think we are close to 1.75% right now. if you were to ask me what is your best guess of where the yield will be at the end of the year, i think they will probably be around 2%. usually what we observe in the u.s. is that at the end of the cycle, the long-term rates are more or less around where the fed takes the short-term rates. if you look at the dot plot from the fed, right now the fed funds will be at 2.5% at the end of
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the cycle. so i would say 2.5% for the 10 year is probably a good estimate of where u.s. treasury yields will end up. manus: join the consensus bandwagon, get on the stimulus train. thank you, stay with us. stephane monier, chief investment officer, our guest host this morning. let's get the first word news flow. >> the wto has raised its production for growth in trades this year to 8%, the biggest increase since 2010. it is also warning that covid-19 remains a big risk and new waves of infection could undermine a recovery. the new boss is also heading out at vaccine nationalism. >> no longer can we expect more countries to stand in a queue waiting to get vaccines. the fact that the who dg said,
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70% of vaccine doses today have been administered by 10 countries. the inequity of access is glaring. laura: bloomberg has learned a manufacturing error affected 15 million doses worth of johnson & johnson vaccines. the drugmaker is playing down the situation, saying it has met its most recent delivery targets. working from home is likely here to stay. that is the finding of a survey of 2000 companies in the u.k. mostar preparing to provide greater flexibility -- most are preparing to provide greater flux ability -- greater flexibility. for more on the future of work, don't miss our show at 8:30 a.m. today. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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this is bloomberg. annmarie: looking forward to that show. thank you for joining us. just ahead, locking up for the month. president macron orders a new nationwide lockdown as europe struggles to contain a rising surge in coronavirus infections. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> they contest us as much as they want. we have a mandate. we have an aim. we are going to be riveted to that and we will do what is required. we have exceptional circumstances to deal with at the moment and exceptional tools to use at the moment. we will use them as needed in order to deliver on our mandate and deliver on our pledge to the economy. annmarie: test us as much as
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they want. ecb president christine lagarde give us a 30 minute interview yesterday. we want to stay with europe. another sign that the region is losing control of the pandemic yet again. french president emmanual macron last night announcing a new four-week nationwide lockdown. closing schools and businesses. germany and italy also extending their partial lockdowns. >> these restrictions in place in 19 departments under strength of surveillance. they will be extended for the old metropolitan territory this saturday evening for four weeks. annmarie: emmanuel macron last night. caroline is in france right now. how strict is this new lockdown going to be? >> this is much stricter because it is extended to the entire nation. it is not only regional.
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schools are going to close for the next three weeks. this is something that president macron has been trying to avoid for weeks now. france has only closed schools for 10 weeks for the beginning of the pandemic, compared to 28 weeks in germany. this is something that president macron has been trying to avoid. he said we tried to keep this at bay for as long as possible. the number of people in the icu in intensive care in france has reached over 5000, an increase of 10% from last week. it is dangerously closer to the peak of the first wave last march. there were no apologies from president macron last night. he did acknowledge some mistakes were made in handling of the
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pandemic. manus: good to have you with us. he waited really as late as possible to do this because there are political ramifications for the president. caroline: one year until the presidential elections and the popularity of emmanuel macron is pretty low. their popularity was actually even lower. it all depends on the vaccination campaign, which is going too slow for many people. four out of five french people say the campaign is poorly organized. if you look at the vaccination rates, only about 12% of the france faxon -- ridge population has received one dose. -- of the french population has received one dose. compared to about 45% in the u.k. people said they do not trust
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the french government handling the vaccination campaign. this will have a huge impact on the presidential elections next year. manus: the breaking news this morning, sweden has now put a brake on using the astrazeneca vaccine, and that adds to the debacle around the whole rollout. caroline connan in france for the very latest on the lockdown. sweden, as i say, awaiting a review on the astrazeneca vaccine. a lot to unpack. christine lagarde basically written -- basically laying down the gauntlet. san, test us if you will. do you think she has done enough to cap bond yields? stephane: yes, i think she has done enough so far. she also mentioned she would be
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ready to do more if necessary. there was a great confidence on our side that the central bank will help the european economy. as we were just saying before on the new lockdown in france, which is maybe not as dramatic as caroline was saying because closing three weeks of school is actually incorporating a preplanned two-week vacation. it is actually only another week of closing for the school on top of what was expected. the currency situation in europe is not very good. i think the failure of europe is more on the vaccination side. in countries including france, there is a strong willingness from the government to speed up, accelerate the vaccinations and testing. i would not be surprised if in april and maybe first two weeks
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of may, you see significant progress in the vaccination testing. as caroline was saying, it is crucial for president macron if he was to be reelected in 2022. annmarie: they have to work on what is going on right now in europe, vaccine hesitancy. a yougov poll showing more and more europeans are not comfortable taking the astrazeneca shop. how does this change your timeline for the european recovery? stephane: it postpones the timeline on what we had expected to see by maybe a quarter. these mishaps on the vaccination front. i think there is a very different approach between, let's say come on one side, the u.k. and the u.s. playing their own cards in this process. the european union is a free trade zone. they have tried to deal with these things in a common manner
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for all the countries, trying to remove initiatives. saying it does not serve well in this case. one of the consequences of this is that going forward, the european union might be a little more selfish as far as trade is concerned which is not great news for global trade. manus: let's translate some of this into markets. you know what shocked me this morning? i found a fact. italy is up 11% in the past quarter. up 45% in the past 52 weeks. france, up 9% in the last quarter. best back to back quarters since 2000. this is the land of value. are you taking more risk despite this sort of latency in vaccines , and lockdowns? stephane: i would say that we are quite favorable in equities. what we like is this rotation a
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little bit away from growth toward cyclicals and some of those markets are well-positioned for that because they have a lower proportion of technology companies in their indexes. in the short run, that is probably going to work. for the long run, i think we still need to ask what the high exposure to the technology sector in our portfolios. annmarie: thank you so much for joining us this thursday morning and enjoy your long weekend. stephane monier, banque lombard odier cio. just ahead, deutsche bank dodges the fallout after eight -- after a $4 billion private sale. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> building back better was a central theme of joe biden's presidential campaign. it is what the country needs. this is all very much on the right track. i am particular excited about the infrastructure investment program. i am excited about green aspects. annmarie: former treasury secretary larry summers on joe biden's infrastructure plan. to another top story we continue to track. more details emerging over the fallout from a fire sale at archegos capital. reports that deutsche bank was able to remain on skates. how was deutsche bank able to
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escape these losses? >> on friday, when goldman sachs had these big block trades, it's somewhat spooked the market, means these stocks fall more. you are going to crystallize pretty significant losses if you continue to sell. this was a scoop from the bloomberg banking team saying that deutsche bank was able to do a big sale on friday, the same day we saw those block trades from goldman. we don't know everyone who they sold it to but we do know that a hedge fund payment in europe was one of the one spot here. if anything, these -- this raises more questions about credit suisse why did they wait? why did they have such significant losses? did it have to do with the size of what they were holding or the relationship with bill hwang? they are in the middle of transferring their prime broker
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-- deutsche bank is in the middle of transferring their prime brokerage service to bnp. manus: it comes down to what kind of security you have been given. if the quality you are holding is lower than everyone else's, it is hard to get away from liquid stocks. all of this will bring us around to the sec. they are looking at initiating another investigation. what is the scope of that investigation? dani: we have already heard from sources that have told us that the sec is looking into a reported phone call the bank held together. the latest one we heard they are looking into bill hwang himself. this tends to happen after big market events. we don't know if this will lead to anything. still, just looking at the nature of this fire sale. manus: i suppose a contrary -- a coterie making telephone calls,
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i don't know what the definition of that is. coming up on the show, it is time to increase production. what to expect from the opec-plus meeting as the lockdowns in europe threatened an already fragile peace and demand. this is bloomberg. ♪
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getting rid of sugar cravings, helps control stress and emotional eating and losing weight. go to golo.com and see how golo can change your life. that's golo.com. ♪ annmarie: good morning. from bloomberg's european headquarters, it is 6:30 a.m. in the city of london. this is "daybreak: europe." pres. biden: the american jobs program is the biggest increase in nondefense spending on record. it will boost the american judy market for global leadership --
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american edge in a market for global leadership that is up for grabs. annmarie: president joe biden says his infrastructure plan will bring everyone along. france heads into a four-week lockdown nestle coronavirus of -- lockdown as the coronavirus. deutsche bank avoids a $4 billion hit from archegos. the details from pittsburgh last night, joe biden, $2.25 trillion if the structure plan. american manufacturing, -- infrastructure plan. american manufacturing, cleaner water. this is really about competitiveness with china. joe biden talked about this a lot. they are putting billions as well into semiconductor manufacturing and upgrading research. to do this, you will have to have taxes and that will be hard for the gop to get around.
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manus: absolutely. and how long will it take to get that through the houses in the united states. mohamed el-erian warns about a knock on effect on buybacks. two stories that will define the differential between the u.s. and the rest of the world. france goes into a four-week lockdown, two weeks of that is easter. sweden stopping the use of astrazeneca. germany stopping giving into those people over 60. more bumps in the road for the astrazeneca vaccine rollout in europe. the laggard in the vaccine rollout narrative. those two things will just pull back a little bit from the fiscal narrative delivered from the united states of america. annmarie: clearly it is that virgins between what is going on -- it is a divergence between what is going on in brussels and
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washington, d.c. biden spoke about jobs that will boost the edge particularly against china. pres. biden: the american jobs plan is the biggest boost in nondefense research spending on record. it will boost america's innovative edge in markets for global leadership up for grabs. markets like battery technology, biotechnology, computer chips, clean energy. competition with china particularly. manus: we spoke exclusively with dallas fed president, robert kaplan, andy struck a more -- and he struck a more bullish tone. >> it is a long-term investment. it should help in future create higher potential gdp growth, higher sustainable growth, better productivity. i would differentiate infrastructure spending from
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other fiscal spending. manus: we are going to roll with it as to whether -- on the inflation side. equities are really trying to find their feet. in terms of fiscal narratives versus the inflation potential, asian equities up 0.4%. the spoiler to the biden plan, could it need that china does not deliver those commodities that biden needs to drive the infrastructure plan. that could be the spoiler risk. 10 year yield, 1.7%. consensus is around 2%. don't smell the flowers. do not want to smell the flowers too much. let's talk about that in a
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little bit more detail. we look ahead, more talks later in the day. opec's top official has warned oil demands remain fragile. whether to prolong those productions. the secretary-general says that we should not be smelling the flowers just yet. annmarie, poetic in the justice she serves every day on the oil market. good day to you. the secretary-general says don't smell the flowers yet. france locking down, astrazeneca paused again. do you worry about demand? >> good morning. thank you for that. i do think lockdowns, france in particular, a big concern. talking about this for a while, the european, the lack of
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vaccinations progress made. even headlines from canada. india is a big concern, particularly given the kind of -- i would not say risk but definitely between the indian minister and saudi energy minister there. in other parts of southeast asia. by no means are -- they know demand is rising. they are price focused on the stimulus plan. better driving season because it is going well. but they are concerned about other parts of the world. annmarie: if they take a cautious approach, will it be just for may or could we see it extent into june? amrita: right now, the discussions are around may. one of the biggest issues they are facing is that the group has
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been giving russia a pass. russia and kazakhstan have been able to increase production pretty much from february onwards. i am hearing from inside sources that there is growing discontent about that. there is generally talk about starting to pull back barrels in the market from a. maybe a win for abdulaziz will be for the group to pause in may but commit to an increase in june. if they do allow russia another free pass this time, then russia will be in phase 3 whereas the rest of the group will only be 25% there. manus: that i suppose should be just fine -- cohesion. they are giving the kazakhstan and the russians a little bit now to keep them on board. is there a risk that the whole
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thing could implode today, if societies do not give the kazakhs and the russians a little bit of sugar? amrita: even from russia's view, you have the duma elections coming up. market demand will pick. prices for them are in a good range. 65, which is fine. i worry for the oil market, even asking if the saudis will deepen the cut. i think sentiment is very negative right now given the demand concerns. the most bullish case has probably been priced in. even if they delayed by a month and agree to an increase in june. annmarie: if they given, as manus said, the sugar for russia or kazakhstan, how much will that irk other members like the
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united arab emirates and then how much could we see cheating go on? amrita: this has been the problem. the report that came out two days ago, one of the things that has mentioned is that basically cheating has increased in february. a big part of that is that russia and kazakhstan are getting freebies and others are not. i think this is the biggest issue discussed at opec. it's very possible they come out and have to agree to a increase for may. maybe they hold for may and increasing june. you can't keep giving russia a freebie and others say, what about us? manus: it is not the oprah show. everyone is not a winner. from libya couple of weeks ago, he was very ambitious with his numbers. living in supply seems to be -- libyan supply seems to be
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stickier. then we have iran and china doing a deal. what is the bigger story in the halls of vienna? amrita: i think for libya, the story about 1.1 million barrels per day. i do not think they see that for this year, a longer-term story. iran is usually, particularly in times like this around sections, it is the unspoken country. the relationship between gcc and iran has never been good. they don't want to talk about it but they are very aware that a raining and barrel cheating, if i may say so, is on the rise. russia has been take -- china has been taking iranian crude, and they are aware of that. their assumption -- and that is one of the things they show, is
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that stocks are supposed ago down just below the five-year average. but none of that is a radiant barrels coming back in the second half. in my conversation, they say, we know iran will come back. it is just a question of when, not if. annmarie: today, our top story talking about an infrastructure plan in the united states. electric vehicles. joe biden wants to ditch oil, gas, coal. you have opec-plus meeting today. long-term, how worried are they about this, especially the fact that the u.s. is putting the pedal to the metal when it comes to energy transition? amrita: i think the energy transition issue is a really split view within opec. i think the likes of uae are like, there is energy transition, we need to get our oil out. not saying they will do it
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straight but generally being aware that oil demand growth will peak sooner rather than later. not that demand will decline but growth will peak. i think russia takes a slightly different view that we subscribe to a little bit more. that yes, oil demand growth will peak and may even struggle to sustain above 100 million barrels per day and the longer-term. but that is still an enormous amount of oil. somebody has to produce that oil. it is probably going to be the low carbon energies that will end up producing that. some of these guys think that they are better positioned to meet at least oil demand in a green world than some of the international oil companies. it is a bit of a mixed view around transition. manus: i popped up to abu dhabi at the start of the week for the start of the contract.
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he said 60-40 is a good average. the story, and the ambition of that, this country and this region. do you see the uae continuing to sit inside opec? they won't let me ask anybody down here so i can ask you at home in london. amrita: thanks for that one. i think that is a very difficult question. yes, there has been murmurings about risk -- about rifts between uae and saudi arabia. for now, i think the uae does understand the importance of staying within opec. i do not think you are wrong that uae has its own ambitions. they want to be the leaders in the region. they want to trade around it. liquidity has been decent at the launch. i do think they are trying to show that they have a voice of their own. it is not in the shadows of saudi arabia.
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slightly more medium-term, this is the relationship to be watched. again, i don't want to use the word risk, but things are not as rosy as they used to be. annmarie: amrita sen, energy aspects head of research. thank you so much. i had on the program, u.s. president -- ahead on the program, u.s. president joe biden says his infrastructure plan will bring everybody along. this is bloomberg. ♪
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pres. biden: no one making under $400,000 will see federal taxes go up, period. we will raise the corporate tax. it was 35%, they reduced it to 21%. up to 28%. no one should be able to complain about it.
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the american jobs plan is the greatest increase in nondefense research and development spending on record. it will boost america's edge in markets where global research is up for --global leadership is up for grabs. markets like clean energy, battery technology, biotechnology, computer chips, competition with china particularly. annmarie: the president's $2.25 trillion infrastructure plan relies on higher levees. bruce, thank you for joining us. what are some of the most important parts of this plan that the president announced last night in pittsburgh? bruce: there is a lot of money that will be going to transportation. president biden has set aside $620 billion for transportation. that includes money for bridges,
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highways, roads, amtrak, airport supports. he wants to spend a lot of money he also wants to spend money on water systems, on our anti-, -- on r&d, on upgrading the electric grid. manus: good to have you with us. how do you get infrastructure -- a lot of commodities. the provider of those in many ways as china and that could be a spoiler for this in many ways, couldn't it? bruce: you are right, there are a lot of commodities there will be growing demand for. from steel and cement for roads and bridges. you will need more cobalt, lithium, rare earths for batteries. copper for ev charging stations.
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consultancy groups estimate that for every $1 trillion spending, that is an additional 60 million tons of steel, 100,000 tons of copper, 140,000 tons of aluminum annually. china has been buying up a lot of copper over the past year. they have increased their copper purchases by one third over the previous year. the u.s. is going to come up against a tightening market as biden tries to move ahead. annmarie: if china is buying all this copper up, how much more expensive does this make biden's plan? bruce: just thanks to china's buying, copper prices have doubled since march of last year to around $9,000 a ton. as you point out, analysts are
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talking about a super cycle. could be comparable to what happened in the early 2000's or right after world war ii. we could be seeing a sficant increase in prices. manus: bruce einhorn, tracking the stimulus story and some of the risks coming from china to the biden ambition. still coming up, locking up for the month. emmanuel macron, nationwide lockdown as europe struggles to contain the rising surge in the coronavirus infections. the latest from france. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the future of work is really about the future of workers.
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what, to me, is the most important question is really defining what a worker is. all the other aspects around worker advocacy, mental health, etc., emanates from there. >> you have to think that the evolution as we all move into this new normal. >> you have to come up with a new operating model. that will have some cultural changes, some norms that are new. >> may be 80% of people will come back to work in a hybrid way. >> we are just about to enter the messy middle. >> by the fall, we think we will be able to open all of our offices. >> we thought 2020 was complicated. but in many ways, what we needed to do was more clear. 2021 was -- is far more complicated because how we do things, at what pace, and what impact small decisions will have, we will only know by
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experiencing it. annmarie: bloomberg guests on a return to the office and future of work. 9:00 to 5:00 is not the only way to make a living now. a monumental shift in how people do their job. we are dedicating a half-hour to the future of work. we will be speaking to standard chartered head of hr at 8:30 a.m. u.k. time with anna edwards. manus: the new model, the hybrid model. a little bit more on roomrater. let's get back to our developing story. sweden is halting the use of astrazeneca vaccines following a review from the european medicines agency. the regulator says it is possible there was a connection between the shots and a rare type of blood clots. it has been seen in 62 cases. but they are still insisting that the shop benefits are worth the risk.
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in france, the president has announced an additional new four-week lockdown, closing schools and businesses. germany and italy also extending the lockdowns. caroline is living through this in the heart of france and she takes us through the latest lockdown. how strict is it? our guest host says that part of it is easter. what do you make of it? caroline: the lockdown we saw in november is still closer to the lockdown in spring of 2020. schools are closed and this was a very last resort for president macron. schools will be closed for three weeks. the regional measures have not been enough. the restrictions have been extended to the entire mainland of france for the next four weeks. a domestic travel ban and work from home for example.
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people only allowed to go outside within six miles of their homes. clearly, being seen as a failure of macron's strategy, light the lockdowns. if you look at the numbers, you have to do something. it is going to approach 100,000 covid deaths in the coming days. if you look at the incidents rate, the daily cases per 100,000 people, it is above 300 for france, about 500 and some areas like the paris region. in germany, the incidence rate is only one third of that number. clearly, macron had to go further and tighten the rules. manus: thank you very much, caroline joining us with the latest on the new lockdown in france. i think it is this juxtaposition between stimulus and ontario
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going into lockdown, france going into lockdown. annmarie: in the united states, a vaccine program on an absolute tear. we will get an update on the u.s. recovery tomorrow. of course, be wary out there for any potential jokes, april's. ♪
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anna: good morning. the cash rate is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. france ends into -- heads into a four-week lockdown. joe biden pitches his massive 2.2 $5 trillion infrastructure plan as a way to boost the economy without overheating.

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