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tv   Bloomberg Markets Americas  Bloomberg  March 1, 2021 10:00am-11:00am EST

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guy: monday the first of march. from london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel is a new york -- is in new york. welcome to "bloomberg markets." looks like march is going to be interesting, judging by the early price action. alix: but it kinda feels like the anxiety we felt over yields last week is taking a break today. betsy gray sick saying that the bullish -- betsy graseck saying that the bullish case is sniffing out a recovery. it is a broad-based rally anywhere you look, from tech as well as the small caps. we are seeing that curve continues to steepen. you are seeing a little lightness in the treasury market. yield up modestly, very different from some strong
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buying coming into the market. the dollar a bit mixed on the day, but it feels like it is a little calmer reaction. guy: not in the data, because the data is coming through strong out of the united states. the ism manufacturing headline number, 60.8. that is well above expectations. we've got a number north of 60. this sector is on fire. this is absolutely critical as we think about the inflation narrative. prices paid coming through at 86.0. the prime number was 82.1. the survey was just for 80. this is coming in well ahead of expectations. new orders also strong at 64.8. employment also strong at 54.4. that is a blowout set of numbers on the eyes him -- on the ism. alix: same for construction spending. . you also had december revised upward as well.
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we had a lot of snow, and it still did pretty well. guy: let's dig into the details. mike mckee is here to top us do that -- to help us do that. michael: that ism number is a very strong number. we knew manufacturing was doing well, but this is much better than be blunt is abated. --better than people anticipated. in june 2008, we were at 94.1, so we are not that far from it, and the month after that, july of 2008, inflation is measured by the fed's pce index was 4.1% which is going to be way above what the fed is going to tolerate. if this is a sign of things to come, we have a reason to be concerned. the employment number, 54.4. then you look at the comments
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from a number of the companies interviewed for this index, and one in the machinery industry says prices are going up and lead times growing longer by the day. from the electrical equipment sector, things are now out of control, everything is a mess, and we are seeing widescale shortages. in the plastics sector, labor shortages and affecting material deliveries d pr. so a lot of the supply-side issues people talked about coming out of the covid downturn may be starting to happen here, where we see shortages because there wasn't enough created and there are supply chain problems. that is going to have an impact on the economy. guy: alix: -- alix: brightpoint. -- brightpoint -- great point. joining us now to break us down is nick maroutsos, janus henderson head of global bonds, the perfect guest to headline
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today. warren buffett out ashen bonds, saying there's no place for them in your per folio -- out bashing bonds, saying there's no place for them in your portfolio. what do you think? nick -- nick: we have seen yields go down, but we are not ready to raise the white flag. we were eighth it. -- we were at 50 basis points on the year. we are getting closer to exiting this covid situation on the back of vaccine situation and development. at these levels, we would argue you could even figure yields in a little further with respect to rates because we would expect rates would be held down by fed buying, the possibility of yield curve control. while warren buffett may be
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right in the sense that bonds are not going to deliver the security they once were, you can still make a case for them in your portfolio. we are not going to get to 7%, 8% returns, but they can still provide a good diversifier, particularly if you look at some of the sectors that have been hit hard, and also certain regions that offer deep value. guy: good morning. the data are pretty strong, though. and you heard those comments from mike talking about what people are saying in key sectors. they are really struggling. labor inflation is there. cost inflation is there. using the fed is really going to push back on this -- do you think the fed is going to really push back on this rate move at this point? nick: i think what you will hear from the fed speakers this week is they are going to be talking down the market.
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powell's testimony is going to be critical because he's had a series of missteps in the past. the data points are suggesting we are much closer to the end of this then we are to the beginning, but i would also caution investors who say we are going to be hitting 2% 2.5%, the fed is still in charge. powell and yellen are still leading the charge on this, and they have shown time and time again they are will into out of -- to out -- they are willing to out-dove be doves. before friday's selloff, the market was pricing and one hunter 25 points of rate hikes by 2024 -- 125 points of rate hikes by 2024. the fed notoriously is known for overpromising and under delivering. if you look at the crisis of 2007, 2008, they waited seven
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years before they hiked interest rates. the first time they hiked interest rates, at the beginning of the year they suggested they would hike four times, and they went once. the following year they suggested the same thing. they went one time. they are going to be very deliberate in terms of how they manage this. you can make the case that this time is different, and it probably is, but i would caution investors by throwing bonds out of their portfolio. alix: last week, the conversation was does the fed even care about higher yields, and will intervention be enough. that was particularly prevalent in europe, where we had a lot of intervention. it didn't seem to do any good. today you have a pretty solid rally in the bond market in europe, and it turns out the ecb wasn't buying last week. what you make of that that's what do you make of that -- what do you make of that? nick: this is pure jawboning. they know they can't handle significantly higher rates because it is going to choke off growth. can we handle slow grind higher? absolutely.
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that is what we would be wanting as well because what is a higher rate enable investor to do? they have the opportunity to invest, the opportunity cost is better, and is much easier to stomach because usually is is -- usually it is offsetting any difficult. again, this is not a taper tantrum. this is not a tantrum in the sense that credit spreads are still staying largely in check. stock prices are doing significantly well. bonds are off 100 basis points since their lows in august. stocks dropped about 70%. bonds are off about 50 basis points since the beginning of this year, and stocks are up anywhere between 2.5% to 2%. this is a repricing. this is normal. this is expected to happen. we did not think it would happen
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as quickly as it did. we thought it would be a little more gradual, but we are encouraged by what we are seeing. guy: what is the trade? you and i have talked a lot over the last few months. you have been focused on the front end. are you staying focused on the front-end? how steep does the curve become? were you surprised at the front-end move last week? nick: you hit the nail on the head. that is exactly what we were most concerned with because our view has always been that the front-end is going to stay pegged for the foreseeable future. with the front end selling off, it did give us a little bit of pause for calls -- little bit of cause for pause. the rhetoric has been very clear, they are not going to be hiking interest rates. as a bond investor, we are focused more on the front end. you are not going to get the returns you are used to getting in fixed done come -- fixed income. is the back end looking more attractive? absolutely.
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but we are not ready to jump in with both feet. we are focused the front end, identifying high-quality corporate's, particularly in underappreciated sectors that the data is suggesting will do better as we move out of this crisis, and i think bond investors really need to get more creative in this space. we've been used to being able to benefit from a low yield environment, or yields rally in. we need to be more innovative. find ways that we can incrementally add value to people's portfolios, but also do it in a way that is not adding more volatility. guy: nick, we are going to leave it there, but we are going to want you back in a second talk about stimulus. we certainly need to focus on what is happening down in d.c. nick maroutsos of janus henderson is going to stay with us. we are getting comments from the governor of the bank of france. the ecb "canon must -- the ecb "can and must react to any undue tightening."
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the ecb must be ready to act against any unwanted tightening. as alix says, they didn't use the pepp in the way people thought last week. maybe that will be different. "can and must react," from the governor of the bank of france. nick maroutsos will be back with us in just a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪ it's moving day. and while her friends are doing the heavy lifting, jess is busy moving her xfinity internet and tv services. it only takes about a minute. wait, a minute? but what have you been doing for the last two hours? delegating? oh, good one. move your xfinity services without breaking a sweat. now that's simple, easy, awesome. xfinity makes moving easy. go online to transfer your services in about a minute. get started today.
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pres. biden: we can finally get our economy moving again.
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alix: the u.s. senate could take up president biden's 1.9 trillion dollar stimulus package as soon as wednesday. senator warren proposed a new wealth tax to households of $150 million plus. joining us on the phone is terry haines, pangaea policy founder. what is going to be taken up in the senate, and what is going to be talked about in terms of tax increases down the road? terry: good morning, alix. they are going to take at least a couple of weeks to deal with this. what markets under appreciate is that the stimulus bill barely passed the house, and right now there is no majority for it in the senate, things at least two senator manchin of west virginia, who the white house is already irritated by. i think what ends up happening is we eventually get a stimulus, but it is closer to $1 trillion,
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and not the full 1.9 trillion dollars, not least because you have at least 1/3 of this bill is really not related to go it really federal -- related to covid really federal. i think that is going to strict out. you saw the minimum wage is now going to get stripped out. you will see a lot of that stuff go away. but this is going to take a little while. manchin is not backing off. democrats want to pass something into weeks thanks to unemployment, but they did not mind blowing through that deadline last fall, so i look for a more protracted process here than before. guy: good morning. when do you think the first check goes out? terry: i wouldn't say the first check goes out until probably mid to late april. by the time you get through the bill and through the processing issues, i think you are really into april and probably the second half at the very
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earliest. alix: is what we heard from elizabeth warren a prelude to what the real conversation is going to be in a few months? people get some checks, and now we are going to see higher taxes? terry: look, higher taxes is brought about mostly because of intra-fracture and -- because of infrastructure and trying to pay for what is going out the door on covid relief. i think that is very unlikely to happen. you don't have any kind of bipartisanship for that. you don't even have a majority within the democratic party for that. i look at that as progressive windowdressing more than anything else, and certainly proposals like ultra millionaire taxes are designed to focus on the punters in the front row and get their approval, but not serious legislative proposals at all. guy: if i know quick one from me. this is turning out to be harder than i think some people thought it would be, particularly with the reconciliation process.
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what does that mean in terms of what we should expect on the infrastructure side? terry: you bring that up i think in the right way because it is not only harder than it turns out to be, it is going to get harder still. the easy part was passing this through the house. people forget that on the affordable care act 10 years ago, 11 years ago, it took them five months from the time the house passed the bill to actually getting something into law. this is not going to take five months, but it is not a civil process. as i said come up -- not a simple process. as i said, they do not have a majority in the senate today. tax raising is not going to be half as popular as most people think. that may be a base issue for democrats, but that does not translate into law or bipartisanship, and that is what is needed. guy: we will leave it there. thank you very much for your time. let's get back to the markets and talk about the impact of what a $1 trillion stimulus
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package rather than a $1.9 trillion looks like. nick maroutsos of janus henderson joining us now. is that significant in your world, if you were to get $1 trillion rather than $1.9 trillion? does that move the dial? nick: i don't think it really does. if we look at where we have come over the past year, we are now transitioning from a fed induced support to an economy that is actually functioning on actual growth. if you look at the ism numbers, growth expectations for this coming year are quite bullish. i think that is going to remain. whether or not we get $1.9 trillion or $1 trillion, what is $900 billion between friends, right? it is a significant amount of money, but we were always going to get some sort of water down version. it is not a simple as we thought to pass this through. ultimately, putting money in people's pockets isaac is a good thing. the fact that the growth to directory -- the growth
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trajectory continues ultimately matters most. alix: are we ever going to be able to get out of this world of monetization in some capacity? nick: maybe that is the $900 billion question. [laughter] the challenge is that markets are so used to fed support, any sort of downdraft in markets, we talk about more quantitative easing, more fed involvement, more fed backing, this is just the world we are used to. i think that is a debate for the longer-term. are we setting up future generations for more problems as a result of saddling them with more debt? absolutely. are we willing to pay the piper? probably not. this is the age-old question that i think the markets have just gotten over used to the fact that the fed is always going to be there and provide support, when it probably should be able to act on its own two feet. any sort of market downdraft is
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immediately acted on, whether it is fed officials, market participants speculating as to what the fed or central banks should do. i think that is a problem. guy: how does the fed deal with the following scenario? the economy really delivers amazingly stellar numbers in the back half of this year, really knocks the lights out, i debt that point, the equity markets start to panic that the fed is going to overreact, and as a result of which, we start to see significant amount of selling. to your point about the market being conditioned to accept help, in that scenario, is that there? nick: i think the situation will be that the situation will be that the fed support will remain, but it will wane over time. but that time is going to take a very significant amount of time. no crisis is the same, but if you go back to 2007, 2 thousand
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8, 2009, the fed support lasted for over a decade. we had mass amount of stimulus. still have mass amount of stimulus even leading into the hiking cycle. they have to unwind a significant amount of stimulus before we even begin rate hikes, and they are going to be very gradual in doing so. this environment will remain. -- list for stocks, and to some degree bullish ash will remain bullish for stocks, and to bullish for stocks, and to some degree bullish -- alix: you froze, i thought you were done. the beauty of technology. go ahead. nick: i think environments where there is muted inflation and fed involvement, coupled with growth, is going to be bullish for risk assets. alix: net, love your ash neck -- nick, love your perspective.
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alix: some breaking news over the last half-hour. goldman sachs' asset management cohead will be leaving the bank. sonali basak, this comes on top of walmart approaching two goldman bankers. sonali: a lot of major talent seeming to leave the bank in recent months. eric lane has been there for 20 have years. it is one of the biggest asset managers in the world, let alone at a bank. it is a big move. it is surprising, given that eric lane just assumed this new rule as cohead of asset and wealth management in september
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as well. guy: how big a hit is the walmart move as well? walk us through the application of that for markets and beyond. sonali: you could see that is even bigger in some ways because it is a new business at goldman sachs that indicates a lot more competition at a competitor that has been slowly and quietly growing. walmart already has a lot of partnerships with firms like capital one, a lot of corporate partnerships. that is a lot along the strategy of goldman sachs trying to achieve. bus, omar a smile -- plus, omar ishmael regionally took control of that business. it adds some competition. it reminds me of that stocks and socks id with morgan stanley. sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. for them to onboard customers quite easily while also working with a lot of existing fintech's like a firm is a significant threat.
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guy: big day for wall street. big day for the world of banking. jane fraser stepping up. job number one, job number two? sonali: job number one is get the regulators onboard board with what they are doing. it looks like they will have to hire a lot of compliance and a lot of technology staff that will keep costs bloated, according to our sources. so getting the regulators on board and then keeping costs in line. they are now trading at the lowest price to book multiple of all of the major offstreet peers -- major wall street peers. guy: thank you very much, bloomberg's sonali basak. lots of news today in the banking sector. we will deal with the details in a moment, plus talk about the travel sector. this i bloomberg. ♪
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guy: european government bonds extending their gains after
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those comments we had a few minutes ago from the governor of the bank of france, indicating that we can and must do more to deal with these rising yields. that is the message coming from the ecb. the ecb may be bought less last week, but the ecb saying that was down to redemptions. i be we can park that for one minute. today we are seeing some really big move here. the anticipation was that the anticipation wouldn't be enough, that there would have to be some walking of the walk. certainly, the governor of the bank of france indicating that, and as they say, some really big moves in european government bonds. there is germany, there's italy. the u.k. being affected by the gravitational force of these moves. alix: that is off the lows of the session as well. does being sold in certain sections of the equity market. how much is being priced in in terms of reopening? we will go to abigail doolittle for more on that.
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abigail: we have a huge rebound rally for some of these travel stocks, not just today, but over the last month. these huge gains. as you recall last year, these were the beaten-down names, even though they are up in a big way off of the spring lows. these are the catch up stocks. take a look at your carnival corps, your cruise lines, and then tui up 33%. some big gains for travel, and this has everything to do with optimism about reopening in the vaccines. when we take a look at the vaccine relative to the u.s., the eu, and the u.k., the u.s. on an absolute basis has given the greatest amount of doses so far, 75.2 million, relative to the eu at almost 3 million, and the u.k. at 20.1. on a percentage basis, relative to the rest, the u.s. is about 15%.
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the u.k. is at 30.1% because they are spreading out first doses a little more. some of the other european countries have a ways to go, but nonetheless, this is the big degree of optimism for travel that after folks have been not traveling for about a year now, there's going to be a big rebound. as we take a look at this relative to the stay-at-home trade, what we are looking at. white is the stay-at-home trade. in blue, the tourism trade, or the airline travel stocks. you can see the travel stocks have been doing really well all along this time period. however, they are coming off of a bigger drop last year. what really stands out, take a look at that divergence we have going on now. traders and investors really wanting in on the travel trade. guy: we are certainly seeing that here in europe. for more on this story surrounding global travel, glenn vogel, booking holdings president and ceo.
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looking holdings is the world's largest travel agency, really big here in europe. ask for your time today. everybody started to get really excited that we are going to be having a summer season here, that we are all going to go back to some semblance of normality. is that your expectation as well? glenn: thanks for having me. clearly, everyone is seeing some green shoots, and in the u.k., we called them out. we called them out in germany. every time there is some news that comes out, there is some hope that new vaccinations are possible, that we will learn about johnson & johnson being rolled out today, it is a great thing to hear. but this they race between the number of infections that are still spreading throughout the world and the vaccines. we just hope that governments and pharmaceutical companies together can work really fast,
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get those vaccines into people's arms as quickly as possible, and that will help make people safe to travel, and hopefully bring back some amount of travel back in the summer. alix: is this basically guy just really wanting to go on vacation soon? would guy be eight better off buying a ticket now and then with a cancellation policy to really put down some money? how are people looking? glenn: what is the great things about booking.com -- this is a free option. book it up so you have it for the summer, and if you have to cancel, there is no cost. why not do it? guy: just in terms of what you are seeing happening in europe more specifically, i am very
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keen to go to the greek islands. greece is almost certainly keen for me to go to the greek islands. but nevertheless, headlines and the u.k. are all about new variants, about people flying home with new variants. the u.k. government is extremely happy with the progress it's made in vaccinating its population. we had those numbers from abigail just a moment ago. what it doesn't want to see is that being undermined by a new variants that can beat the vaccine. do you think governments are going to be super cautious? how big an impact do you think that is going to have? glenn: part of their duty is to make sure things are safer their population, see you always want to be careful and cautious. these new mutations are a problem. fortunately, so far, everything i have been seeing is saying that these vaccines are still effective against anything they are seeing, although there is concern that this new one, is this going to be able to avoid the vaccine and cause a problem? that is why we need to get as
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many of these vaccines into people's arms because the virus mutates when it is in somebody, with somebody. it does not mutate in the air by itself. as soon as we get as many people vaccinated as possible, the better off we will be. alix: we definitely do not disagree with you on that. what are the trends that you notice in terms of vaccinations higher in asia? europe is having a harder time getting jabs out. what are the bookings like there? glenn: we see absolute correlation between when a government lists some of the restrictions, you will see immediate increases in bookings. when the government started lifting up those restrictions, we saw a tremendous amount of domestic travel burst up. when prime minister johnson on the u.k., when he made the announcements last week about their plan to get out of the restrictions and travel hopefully in may, we saw
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bookings. that is what we need really. it is between the government making an announcement and us getting some bookings. guy: if i am going to the greek islands, i am probably going for two weeks. that may make sense because it means that i can deal with some of the restrictions that are around my travel and absorb the costs more readily of travel and testing, etc. what about a quick we can to paris or rome or something like that? just in terms of the duration of how people are going to be booking, do you think we break that weekend, two-night trip is going to be more at risk at this stage? glenn: it certainly is until there is more information. people are looking to the summer, talking about their longer summer holidays. when you go further or farther, you want to take more time off. that is just a natural thing to do.
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that is what we are seeing in our booking window, that people, when they start going out for the summer, we see people like to take that longest day. what we really need is two things. we do need these vaccines, and we do need people to start taking them in their arms, but we also need the governments to help stimulate the industry. the travel industry has been so devastated by all of the terrible problems of this crisis . it would be very helpful if governments around the world would put money directly into the hospitality and travel industry. that would be a great thing to do. alix: haven't they done that? glenn: they've done it somewhat. some countries have, some countries haven't. we had a great program going in japan where they get money and tax credits and otherwise to get people to travel into panda mystically -- in japan domestically. we worked very closely with highland to help stimulate some of that there -- with thailand to helps to be late some of that there. but i don't see that stimulating
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up demand and other parts of the world. it would really hope if governments would do that. guy: what do you thing about vaccine passports? using fair going to be real? do you thing they work? do you think -- do you think they are going to be real? do you think they work? do you think the ethical issues around the woman them too hard? -- around them will make them too hard? glenn: i think using technology and creating a vaccine passport or a health passport, i think it is a great thing. if i can show about a country and say i am a safe traveler, i got my vaccination, so i am safe , and they then let me in because i am safe, that is helpful. this idea of ethical problems, i am not sure where that is really coming from. it always takes time for everybody to get the vaccines, so just because some people get it before other people get it doesn't mean we have to wait for everybody.
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it is not like kindergarten where everybody got their snacks before we got to eat. i say get this going as quickly as possible, and by the way, this is not new. when i went to visit some countries in the way back, i had to show a piece of paper that showed i was vaccinated against yellow fever. so this is not new. alix: that's true. irie memory getting out of that when i went to asia a few years ago -- i remember getting a lot of that when i went to asia a few years ago. you laid off a lot of people last year. if this recovers, you bring them back? -- do you bring them back? glenn: it was so sad to let people go. it was because of the pandemic, and we didn't have enough demand to justify having that many employees. if business comes back, at some point we will need to bring back more people, but we have become an either way we want right now.
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we didn't cut to the bone. there will be sometime until we are able to start rehiring those people. alix: we appreciate it. glenn fogel, thank you so much. guy, have you bought your call options to greece yet? [laughter] guy: i've had my vaccine, some abi can go. i will probably need the second one to complete the process. we, along with some any families you talk to anecdotally, just keep thing holidays. that does seem to be the tactic at the moment. wait and see what happens. have to say, at the moment we are maybe a little light on that process, but i don't know. i think this summer looks really difficult. i am wondering what the autumn looks like as well, and i know that the stocks have reacted massively. but i think a lot of people are so desperate to get away that they are prepared to put a little bit of money down, and
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that is good for the airline sector as well. alix: unless you have to get it back. i booked a hotel in paris in october, but i have yet to put anything down. guy: the planes are probably a bit trickier. but if you do it on a rolling basis, it doesn't seem to hurt as much. alix: one big part of that is getting jabs in your arm. a big step forward is johnson & johnson. that one-shot vaccine is now on its way to americans. we will talk to paul scofield, that company's chief scientific officer. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg markets." coming up today, we will hear from johnson & johnson see io alex gorsky -- johnson & johnson ceo alex gorsky. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: 44 minutes past the hour.
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i'm guy johnson. alix steel is over in new york. this is "bloomberg markets." johnson & johnson now looking for manufacturing partners for its vaccine after it was approved by u.s. regulators saturday. it is looking to deliver 4 million doses within next 24 to 48 hours. joining us is our reporter angela kila vito -- reporter angelica lavito. walk us through this process. angelica: millions of doses of the johnson & johnson vaccine are underway the way to americans, and the first shipment could come as early as tuesday. these shipments will go to all states, including pharmacies receiving direct shipments of vaccines. by the end of this month, johnson & johnson has promised to deliver 20 million doses, and by the end of june, another 100 million total. johnson & johnson ceo alex gorsky this morning telling our
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colleague riley griffin that johnson & johnson is looking for partners to help manufacture its vaccine, and of course, that would speed up production and help them deliver on these goals that they have set. this will market expansion of the supply. already we are seeing pfizer and moderna vaccine being shipped across the united states, so this will be a large increase. we will hear more from johnson & johnson and the administration today on how exactly these shots will get into arms, and what this means for the u.s. and the forward. al thank you very much, bloomberg's angelica lavito. for more on the j&j vaccine, we want to dig into the science with chief scientific officer dr. paul stoffels. the conversation is the efficacy. what is the right way for someone like me to understand the efficacy between johnson & johnson, moderna, and pfizer?
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dr. stoffels: important is to know about what it does on what really matters is in the pandemic here, and it is protection against hospitalization and severe disease. the protection against severe diseases 85% across the globe, whether it is in the west, south america, and africa, including all of the variants, ethnicities and ages. no dead and no hospitalization anymore. so if you compare the vaccines, it is very important to know that all of the vaccines are very efficacious in preventing severe disease, and that is why people have to get vaccinated very quickly with whatever vaccine they can get, and hopefully because it is a single shot, very easy to use, very easy to distribute because of the refrigeration. guy: it is guy in london. you are testing a two shot regime.
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how much more effective do you think the vaccine could be with a two shot regime? dr. stoffels: we don't know. we are evaluating that. we started with a single shot to learn the difference between the two, but we are surprisingly strong protection, and it is durable. we measured the effect, so we learned from our zika vaccine that it could work for a very long time. we are learning as we go. this is just 12 months into the development of this product, so we will learn as we go, and in the course of the year, we will know more about the two shot. alix: i've been learning about the risk that the vaccine is so effective that any of boosters won't actually do much good because the first are so good. what is the concern and that, that other variants will sidestep a vaccine altogether? dr. stoffels: we have to learn
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that. it is new. the variants are new. we are the first ones that have evaluated against the south african variant. we showed very high efficacy. we don't know how it will evolve, but as we are doing an expansion to that study in south africa with several tens of thousands of people, we will learn how it will evolve with a perspective vaccine like ours. guy: you come at this from a scientific process. here in the u.k., for instance, there's a great deal of concern about new variants coming into the country, that we will undermine the work that is being done in vaccinating huge portions of the population thus far. do you think that governments are right to be concerned? do you think travel and they sort of global travel phenomenon we were so used to is something that needs to be restricted for a while? do you think that governments do
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and should be careful? dr. stoffels: the variant emerges all over the world independent of south africa. it was first observed to be very broadly distributed their, but it absolutely can independently emerge in europe, and any country because the amount of replication which is ongoing in the logic of a virus, it will evolve. this evolution is no different in south africa as in europe. so we call it the south african variant, but in fact, it is first observed in south africa, and i am sure that in many parts of europe, this virus is independently emerging from travel. that is why travel should not be blamed for this. it is the number of people who are infected is the reason why we get this evolution in the virus. alix: how quickly do you think vaccine will be approved in other countries, and how quickly
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can you get supplies to those countries? i'm specifically thinking about the u.k., but it can be anywhere. dr. stoffels: we have submitted to file already in the u.s. over the weekend. similarly in europe, we have submitted and filed to the who forgetting approved all around the world, and to many different authorities as we go through the next few days and weeks. so we have supplies before the summer, but as we said, we are going to have -- going to have one billion in the course of the year, and that will be going around the world to significantly combat against the pandemic. guy: when using we will see a vaccine available for pregnant women, for teenagers? when will we see a vaccine that is available for the immunocompromised, do you think? dr. stoffels: well, we waited for the efficacy data to start
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broader evaluations, so we are accelerating now in small children. we know from our pup form -- from our platform from different studies that where we included 200,000 people have been vaccinated for ebola, and for pregnant women and starting at the age of one. this is a different vaccine with the same platform. we are very confident we will get there, but we will have to generate the data. on pregnancy, also in the large-scale ebola studies, we have found the studies ongoing. data will be available hopefully in the coming months. we have good evidence or at least we can provide some safety data. alix: before we let you go, a viral vector vaccine is a huge change in the medical industry. i wonder what else you are going to be doing after this vaccine. what other medicines are you going to be using this technology for?
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dr. stoffels: we are doing at the moment an hiv study in phase ii and phase three to do a study that can be used for other viral infections, and we will further expand it in different implications. alix: we look forward to that. thank you for your time today, dr. paul stoffels, chief scientific officer at johnson & johnson. coming up later today, an interview with johnson & johnson ceo alex gorsky on "balance of power" with david westin. don't miss that. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: welcome back. it moves and bond markets this afternoon in europe on the back of the comments we had from the
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governor of the bank of france. we "can and must" take action if yields start to rise. that is having an impact today. big moves across the board. we are near session lows when it comes to yields. germany, italy, even the u.k. being affected. we are going to talk more about this with --, joining us shortly to give his perspective on the currency market. he is barclays global head of fx and em. it will have an impact on the currency markets, a huge impact potential he. we will get marvin's take. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: live from london, i'm guy johnson. alix steel is over in new york. we are counting you down to the european close on "bloomberg markets." in europe this hour, bonds surging as the ecb slows down the pace of its bond buying. basically, the reason we are getting this big move is because of the comments coming through from the governor of the bank of france. six cases of a resilient variant raising questions about travel. travel stocks really outperforming today, and the expert -- and the ex-french president nicolas sarkozy found guilty, unlikely to serve a sentence. the big story in the bond market today very much about those comments coming through from the governor of the bank of france indicating that the ecb can and must

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