tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg February 18, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST
tech vaccine shows less potency against the south africa variant, but they suspect it will still work. credit suisse misses on trading. fourth-quarter loss is not as big as expected. we speak to the ceo in an hour. and a host of other newsmakers. a raft of ceos. the numbers are in from credit suisse. it is a net loss. 353 million swiss francs, 200 tighter than the market expected. they missed on fixed income, on equities, and provisions for a legacy issue on retail mortgage backed securities is indeed also there as well. it trifecta of misses. my favorite phrase. dividend guidance, 5% growth.
i can see there is a major litigation provision of three quarters of a billion dollars in these numbers. we need to find out, how do you improve by 200 million swiss francs in these numbers? good morning. annemarie: you mentioned earlier on those credit suisse numbers, we are going to be speaking to the ceo alongside barclays, nestle, and airbus. stick with bloomberg tv. let's take a look at where we trade when it comes to the data. we have a lot to digest in terms of the economic environment. in terms of asian equity trading , it is read on the screen across the board. asian equities down 0.6%. real estate consumer discretion leading the selloff. the s&p 500 closed flat, we are
lower today in the red. i put the yield up. we are going to get the 30 year tips auction. it could be an indication of where the market sees inflation. brent crude north of $65 a barrel. this has to do with the united states energy crisis. more than 4 million barrels are coming off-line. potentially a shock. the other thing you talk about is what is the latest catalyst to this market? normally fed minutes can be a snooze fest. when it comes to financial stability and conditions, while jay powell had normally said after the last press conference they were moderate, actual fed staff members, central staff members, are saying we see them as more notable, but still, even regardless, they are not pulling back when it comes to the support they are giving in terms of monetary policy. manus: they are raising flags where we are with risk.
i want to take you to what some will call u.s. exceptionalism. the sweep of surprises we had yesterday. this is the american exceptionalism personified. bloomberg economics advisors, the second-biggest jump in almost a decade. to that extent, you are talking about a real narrative of exceptionalism. what does that mean for the bond market? do i want to belong stocks? short bonds and short the dollar? that is the question i asked myself as i look at that level of exceptionalism. i love what martin malone said to me yesterday. the fed owns 20% of the market, so don't get too excited. it is not a bernanke style taper . it is a moderate repricing. the bond market is catching up with the equity market. what next? annemarie: i want to recap some
of that positive economic data from the u.s.. the market already seeing those gains, or is there more to come? take a look at what our key guests are saying. >> this market is so overbought. the enthusiasm is so historic. you are talking to the bullish guy. >> the effect of getting from 2% on the two-year to 0%, that can only happen once. a lot of these things are more or less baked in. we think we are going to get better earnings performance, but that is going to be the thing that pushes of the index this year. >> not only are we in a bubble environment, but there are sentiments that worry us. matt: -- manus: just some of the voices on -- is it repricing? i don't know. eric, good morning to you. let's have -- the line is coming
through, this is not a taper caper. this is a bond market catching up with the cross asset rally you have seen. what do you make of that? >> that is probably reasonable. i would not view it as catching up. the two have been happening simultaneously. it is logical what is going on in the bond market. people are starting to see the other side of coronavirus economics. the recovery looks like it is pretty well in train. the reality is risks are shifting. we see it in record lows of credit spreads, the rally in equities, the more recent rally in cyclically exposed parts of the equity market. logically, risk preferences are shifting. i don't think it has got properly interesting yet.
at the moment i would describe it as hyper efficient, the way markets are behaving. they are doing exactly what they should do given the underlying facts. i don't see anything here that is particularly extreme yet. the next phase starts to become interesting. annemarie: your preferred portfolio, you like diversified equities, you like cash. you like 30 year treasuries. we have the 30 year tip auction today. manus made the point the fed is in that option. do you expect big demand from today? this could give us an insight into what investors are thinking when it comes to inflation. >> i would not read too much in to a single auction. i don't think it tells you about inflation. what is important to bear in mind is the tips market is a
different asset to those nominal treasuries. if you take the 30 year or the 10 year treasury, they are reliable, relatively, as 60 assets. -- safety assets. you have a high probability if you have 30 year treasuries, it is going to provide you with insurance. that is the first important point. the problem with the tips market is because it is less liquid, because your coupon is sensitive to the oil price, this is very important. you don't know how it's going to behave in a portfolio at any point. it is a different risk asset. a lot of what people are interpreting as a rise in wage expectations, it is simply a shift in the oil price and risk preference. nothing to do with inflict -- inflation expectations. manus: you have given us a lot to go on. this is the time for patient
optimism, not big bets. with the visualization of u.s. exceptionalism, retail sales, the data that swept through the markets yesterday, we are seeing a huge revision to u.s. exceptionalism. is that short dollar come along stock, short bonds? >> you want to be back in your home portfolio, your benchmark portfolio. this is not a market to be taking big banks. it is diversified global equities. 30 year treasuries provides you with diversification. this is not a stable market. i don't think equities are wildly overpriced. if the economy is doing well and
real cash rates are negative, you should trade on a high multiple. that is absolutely logical. markets are rarely in the stable economic environment. they are on a journey to some kind of panic and i think plausibly over the next three to six months, things are going to get lively. we will either get a bubble or some kind of volatility, some kind of correction that could be triggered from left field. my view is there is nothing out here to be taking a bet against. be patient, be diversified. history tells us something will happen in the next nine months that will give us really good opportunities as an active manager. lots of interesting things happening. mini bubbles and bursts are
happening all the time, but there is not anything too disconcerting at the aggregate. annemarie: very briefly, because manus gave me the bait. i want to get your thoughts on oil. we have had a number of guests on this program be quite contrarian to what the street thinks. is this the start of a super cycle for commodities? >> i doubt that. one of the real difficulties here, first of all, the oil price is cyclical. a lot of what's happening in the energy sector is very logical. there is interesting tension going on by the fact that on most metrics, the oil sector looks extraordinarily cheap in the context of history. we know the reason why, which is the entire way above esg -- wave of esg behavior raising the cost of capital on sectors such as the oil sector. if you look at the history sales
sectors like the tobacco sector, very often, when sectors become excluded and become the precursor for generating high returns come of that is logical. the cost of equities and risk premium rises. the expected return increases. when i think about the energy complex in this world is at the same time collectively, we are investing billions and billions into competition to the energy sector. a curious phenomenon where -- annemarie: eric. >> but the rest of capital is falling. annemarie: we are going to finish those thoughts next. a recap of the first word news. >> google has reached a deal with news corp.. a truce in the long-running value over the -- battle over the value of journalism.
it does not end a similar controversy in australia. the country wants internet giants to pay publishers for the value stories generate. robinhood and citadel are pushing back against conspiracy theories they coordinated to restrict retail investors during the gamestop saga. in testimony ahead of today's hearing for the house financial services committee, robinhood's ceo said the restrictions were only two -- to meet demands. a freeze has taken out almost 40% of u.s. crude production, morphing into a global supply shock. brent is rallying for a fifth day. blackouts continue. texas is restricting the flow of natural gas outside the state. some say the move is a violation of the u.s. constitution.
global news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus: coming up on the show, mario draghi outlines a vicious plan to drag italy from the depths of cannot crisis. -- economic crisis. (announcer) back pain hurts, and it's frustrating. you can spend thousands on drugs, doctors, devices, and mattresses, and still not get relief. now there's aerotrainer by golo, the ergonomically correct exercise breakthrough that cradles your body so you can stretch and strengthen your core, relieve back pain, and tone your entire body. since i've been using the aerotrainer,
my back pain is gone. when you're stretching your lower back on there, there is no better feeling. (announcer) do pelvic tilts for perfect abs and to strengthen your back. do planks for maximum core and total body conditioning. (woman) aerotrainer makes me want to work out. look at me, it works 100%. (announcer) think it'll break on you? think again! even a jeep can't burst it. give the aerotrainer a shot. pain and stress is the only thing you have to lose. get it and get it now. your body will thank you. (announcer) find out more at aerotrainer.com. that's aerotrainer.com.
but also existing vaccines. annemarie: ursula von der leyen announcing the eu has secured hundreds of millions of additional covid-19 shots. the eu is racing to ramp up its vaccine rollout across the block. eric is still with us. one thing that is a worry right now, and we got data overnight, the pfizer-biontech vaccine had fewer antibodies against the south african variant. angela merkel talked about this being the elephant in the room that could wreak havoc when you look at nation success. you have analysts looking at what european equities could be, calling it the roaring 20's. some portfolio managers see 9.5% upside. is this the biggest risk to what portfolio managers are saying about the upside in european equities? eric: possibly.
the honest answer is we don't know. it is a reminder in the current environment that just as momentum is making it feel like a lot of these trades are one way bets, we can very easily get something from that field that causes -- left field that causes price momentum to reverse. to me it makes sense in the context of a portfolio i have. i have diversification, i have cash, i have insurance. something somewhere is likely to come from left field. you worry more about things we have never seen before because they are harder to quantify, but absolutely some disappointment with respect to the vaccine. manus: we have seen this euphoria across assets. nowhere is it more present i would say then btp bund spreads. the least -- i have seen people
semi-messages now. you can see btp bund spreads go to 20 basis points. we are in full on belief mode in the spread market. are you long italy? how do you play the draghi trade? eric: my leaning would be to be short btp's. this is not because i don't think mario draghi is the best person for the job. i have huge respect for mario draghi. the only problem is his task today is far more difficult than his task would be with the ecb. at the ecb, he had to print billions and billions of euros and by government bonds. all you need to do is get a committee to agree and you can do it. the problem with turning around the italian economy is how do you reverse decades?
how do you reverse demography? how do you reverse a debt overhang where the ratio will increase 30% or 40% in the face of european rules where it is impossible even on a medium-term view to meet eu rules? it is going to be a challenge for italy, ironically, when we come out of this crisis in the same way it was when we came out of the financial crisis. i hope draghi proves to be a magician, but this is not a task where i would be betting on his succeeding. annemarie: so you are not betting on draghi. you are betting against the data and politics of italy. what do you think draghi could bring to the table? do you have confidence in the banking sector in italy. eric: there is a fundamental
structural problem within the euro zone which relates to, how do we treat the fiscal assets. how do we treat italian government bonds? for a decade they have been switching. periodically they behave like buns. periodically they behave like a credit risk. they are expensive as a credit risk. they are cheap as rate expectations. unfortunately, history tells you you go through small periods of stability in italian politics and then you get a return to instability. it is difficult i'm afraid to believe that relationship is somehow fundamentally broken. annemarie: thank you for your time this morning. we are just getting some breaking news. we are still in earnings season. this is from nestle.
a little bit of a be on the estimate -- a beat on the estimate. they say covid related incremental costs are going to be more than 20 million francs in 2020. all of this comes after what we learned when they were able to sell their north american brand for $4.3 billion. it does seem like a positive beat when it comes to nestle. this morning we are going to have more on the earnings front. we are going to speak to the ceos of credit suisse, barclays, nestle. also coming up on the program's china, back online. we are going to go to singapore next for the asian markets wrap. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure?
the asian financial markets have opened following the lunar new year. stocks soaring at the open, but they faltered. how is it looking in singapore? never falters from singapore. it never flinches. >> always a great day here. it is not the dramatically open you had this time last year when we saw chinese stocks. and modest return in the wake of the pandemic. we did see the csi 300 rising by 2%. we did see the sellers move in and that momentum faltered. the csi 300 down by 9% -- down by a 10th of 1% on the lunch break. there is concern about overcrowding particularly in the liquor maker stocks. the china gaze of small caps --
chinext gauge of small caps. the pboc offering $31 billion of liquidity and the won fairly steady. when it comes to hong kong stocks versus the a share market , chinese stocks are 30% pricier on shore. the yuan valuation metric has the csi 300 at its highest level in nearly six years. a bit of a limp start to the year of the ox. not the fanfare we were expecting. credit suisse actually downgrading china markets from overweight to market weight saying share momentum is lacking. annemarie: i think everyone is
excited to put the year of the rat behind us. potentially there is optimism going into the year of the ox. thanks so much for joining us. we have more numbers coming out. air france looks like they are struggling in terms of capital. matt: the cash burn is high. the breaking redhead line is air france is expecting a bailout. this is going to come within weeks. if you look at the cash burn, air france burned through 2 billion euros in the final quarter of last year. if you look into the depth of the story, the question is days or weeks, not months. this is michael o'leary's point. bailing out national flag carriers. annemarie: i am looking at their capacity, they are operating at 40% of 2019 capacity during the first quarter.
pfizer-biontech shows less efficacy with the south african variant but will still work. we are going to be speaking in one hour, a host of newsmakers. keep it right here. we also have another corporate earnings story breaking right now from daimler. they see 2021 sales higher than we saw in 2020. significantly higher. they're full year dividend share is 1.35. the estimate was for 1.10. it does seem like when you look at these massive automakers they are putting 2020 behind them. they are seeing a significant upside when it comes to sales this year. coming up, we will be speaking exclusively to the ceo of daimler. you do not want to miss that later on this morning. manus: to credit suisse. it looks like the beat that has been delivered by goldstein's
lower-than-expected loss and the first flush it looks like lower, lower loss positions. they missed on fixed income. they missed on equities. their provisions for mortgage backed securities came in higher than expected. there was a net loss for the bank on the quarter. 353 million below 529. it was off loss provisions, that seems to be the key issue. lending is rising and that is a bank in a hurry to transition. francine will talk to the ceo later. credit suisse, barclays. nestle. you broke the numbers on nestle and airbus as well.
all those people will join us. let's get to a partner and head of european banks over at red burn. we just got to the bottom of the credit suisse numbers. here we are as we look at the swiss banks. a beat for credit suisse. ubs did very well. what stands out for you, let's start there. ground zero on the swiss banks. good morning. >> it looks quite different. credit suisse, you look at fixed income and equities, they are slashed year on year. equities up 30% year on year at ubs and also on the u.s. banks. it is really more like 10%. it is modest. there capital market business service and fees have been very strong.
on trading business it does look like they have lost ground versus their swiss counterparts and u.s. counterparts and only invested on the wealth management side as well. ubs had strong numbers on their operating business. i think the market, the markets move for a provision led beat was more conducive a month ago when shares were weaker. the rally we have had over the last four weeks, i suspect the market will look through very quickly at operating pre-provision trends going forward to 21 and 22. what is the road to recovery? i think credit suisse's numbers might be taken poorly, especially considering. annemarie: a lot of that has to do with softness on trading revenue. what do you think we are going to be seeing with 2021 when it comes to revenue at all the banks? for the most part, that has really helped boost their profit.
>> there has been a very strange asymmetry between the ground and the real economy and financial markets. there are a multitude of reasons for that. i think next year, this year over the next three quarters, the question is going to be about -- it is impossible really to keep up with what we saw in a trading point of view just because of the very unique set of circumstances we saw in 2020. does it come down to 10% year on year? how does it fare versus 2019? consensus is up versus 2019 in the pre-pandemic year. there is growth from the other base year. will that fade be more notable or can perhaps the volatility environment mean the fayette is not as much as we think? that gradient is the key
question. the investment banks are now facing difficult comparisons -- difficult imperatives as we navigate 2021. it is a given. manus: we have been debating with guests reflation, curve steepeners. this has been the whole narrative nearly for 15 days. are we replacing the curve? you would say that will be the alpha for u.s. banks. i put it to you and helps me differentiate if i look at u.s. equities relative to declining inflation expectation and the european outlook. that gives u.s. supremacy to europe. >> that is a very logical frame of thinking. the way the markets reacted in the past has been quite different. the eps numbers take a while to react. actually, the banks in europe
react to the u.s. yield curve steepening on the expectation of the european u.k. yield curve following suit. what has happened subsequently, the u.k. curve has not followed the u.s. and shares have fallen. there is a five-month rally, you have seen this before in 2012, the back end of 2016, where the european banks outperform on the base of the u.s. yield curve steepening. we have seen very strong outperformance in the european banks at the moment. the u.s. yield curve has been steepening, but historically, it is the u.s. yield curve that gets the juices flowing on the rating of the european banks. then we see if it is genuine or if there is follow-through. the initial move is following the u.s. yield curve. there is assumption that is the precursor for more inflation in
europe and the u.k. regardless of how forced it is from a historical perspective. annemarie: manus and i were talking about this. there is no inflation in europe. look at the german ten-year, it is still following the u.s. 10 year. he said that is because the u.s. leads the way. i want to get your thoughts on bank dividends. the ecb is not going to be lifting its cap until september. what do you make of the european dividends story? >> i think it is very hard to buy bank investments purely on the reflation trade just because we have been burned so many times before. i think the europeans are going to in the first half of the year introduced their stress test and on the base of that, there will be asymmetry between which banks are allowed to pay and which are not. at the moment it feels the ecb is uncomfortable and does not have the data to differentiate between which bank is in a better place or a worse place to
deal with the lockdowns. what will happen is when we have those stress tests, they will be the strongest and the weakest banks. the strong banks like ing would be allowed to pay whereas the weaker banks most likely in southern europe i think will be given for the restrictions based on their performance in stress tests which are released in the first half of the year. manus: let's pick up the thought on the stress test. the bank of england are going to stress test at a 55% drop in the equities market. i hope for my sake at my age it does not happen, but it might. with that in mind, which banks do you want to own in a major equity drawdown? maybe even a 50% drawdown. >> i think in that scenario you
want -- because of the banks relative discount to the market, banks probably outperform, but the truth is you are picking between numbers, saying which banks do i want to own in a mass-market showdown -- banks and energy should theoretically outperform relative to the part of the market that seem bubbly. i do think it is picking the worst-case scenario -- were the best case scenario of a terrible overall situation. the banks you want to own or the banks that have very clear noninterest income stories. buying net income -- net interest income stories are dangerous. those banks that can make money on a um wells -- wealth management are the ones you want with gearing on the other side. those banks that are well
provided and well-capitalized. in your scenario you want to buy debt that is better capitalized. manus: let's hope we don't ever get to that stress test scenario. i am with you all the way. you can have what is left in the portfolio fund. i am putting it all on you. no stress there. great conversation. so dell's can griffin -- citadel's ken griffin is set to testify at a hearing today. joined by the chief of melvin capital and the reddit user known as roaring kitty. i love that. let's get to dani burger. roaring kitty. what a name.
>> that is his youtube name. he has a name on reddit that is too explicit for us to say on air. if you look at the memo i have here, they have the name here, the explicit one. it is weird to see a very serious congressional memo say a name on it we cannot even say on air. within this memo you get the idea that what the house is looking at is the idea, have laws kept up with the change in trading and social media where users can more easily trade on things like robin hood and can talk about it on reddit, whether or not their username is explicit. they are going to be looking at shortselling, stock manipulation, the game with occasion of the stock market -- gamification of the stock market. we have prepared testimony from the witnesses. vlad 10 a for his expected to say the idea we had help from hedge funds, that is absolutely false and market distorting rhetoric. the prepared testimony from the
hedge funders, ken griffin of citadel, they are saying similar things, saying there was no sort of conspiracy here, we did not make them stop these traits. it should be interesting to hear from -- he is at the center of a new class action lawsuit alleging stock manipulation. his prepared testimony says i am just an individual investor and all i did was use public information to study these companies. there is no insider trading. nothing malicious. annemarie: as we await this hearing and everyone i know is very much looking forward to it, has there been any recent trade that we think the reddit crowd could be behind? >> this keeps coming up. one trade bloomberg has looked at that does look like it is driven by retail inves is the volatility etf. we have the hallmarks of reddit because it has been mentioned a lot on the board annemarie: --
on the board and it has a lot of call options behind. we have seen assets double in the past year, but this is a risky etf. it goes long volatility and it is 1.5 times levered. if you hold onto this for years you will lose most of your money. these are exotic products they are getting into. annemarie: thank you to bloomberg's dani burger and she will be back tomorrow. coming up, the crisis that has knocked out power to millions of homes in texas. the central u.s. poised to enter a fourth day. millions are still in the dark. ♪
crisis in the u.s. poised to enter its fourth day. people without electricity, 43 gigawatts of generation offline. u.s. crude output has plunged by more than 14 million barrels a day, the biggest drop ever. it is starting to become a global shock on the supply side. when do we think these destructions are expected to end? >> this is a question. it has been a huge impact. u.s. production down. temperatures in the main shale production area are expected to rise to 45 degrees fahrenheit friday. that will provide some relief. but really the problem is the freezing weather is not the norm in these areas. there is uncertainty about what happens next. it is looking unlikely things will start to recover before the weekend. estimates for the duration of
the impact of this are getting longer. citi was saying yesterday they expect production losses to be 60 million barrels total. other traders have estimated double that. there is a lot of uncertainty still and there are questions about not just crude, crude is getting a lot of the attention, which makes sense because it is the highest in over a year. prices are very high. there are also questions about the recovery in the refinery sector. which has also been massively affected as well. manus: where does this leave opec-plus? if i was to sum up, the tone of yesterday's conference was a word of caution. >> he was urging members to
exercise extreme caution, saying please don't take this as a sign to open up all the production and not me compliance -- meet compliance. brent has risen to over $65 a barrel. we have wti over six dollars. there is going to be a temptation to open up the production more. when they meet on the fourth of march, i think that is going to be a big question for them. already there are some buyers saying the prices are too high. yesterday in india they were saying the same. the big question is going to come up between saudi and the russian tactics on the oil market with russia obviously urging less stringent production
relevant real tory -- regulatory compliance. data privacy, for example. you want to make sure the data is only the data you want to pass along. there is an aspect of stability. stability is guaranteed because it is backed by an asset. here's the way you come to non-asset-backed cryptocurrencies. bitcoin and arrange of others. the fluctuation on prices make them not usable from a payment perspective. >> your news about being more accepting of cryptocurrencies later this year helped to send bitcoin, the price up. we just spoke with a well-known economist who said it is pure speculative self-fulfilling bubble. it does not have any income. what is your reaction given what
you just had to say about stability? >> my view is, i look at this through the lens of payment technology company. it does not bring much utility from a payment perspective because of fluctuations. from an asset perspective, we are not an asset manager. people are looking at this as any other mass -- any other asset class. that is something we don't take much of a view on. it is important for us to say if people have invested and they want to transfer that to buy something, buy a house with it, we enable that. we enable choice in payments. it could be read tom -- real-time payments, it could be anything. that is our approach to this. annemarie: mastercard's ceo speaking with emily chang talking about bitcoin.
remaining compared it to tulipmania. he said tulips at least have some value because people still love flowers. manus: the better line, that the flintstones had a better monetary system. they had shells. shells? that is it. it is lost in the accent. microstrategy entered bonds with no interest rate. let's set the stage. coming up with mr. miller is the start of the feast of the interviews. we have credit suisse. they have posted lower-than-expected losses for the fourth quarter. losses were not as bad as the markets expected. that is a relief for thomas goldstein after a year of change. he is going to speak to us shortly in that conversation.
what else have we got? barclays on the slate as well. annemarie: we are going to speak with jes staley for the very latest news and analysis on barclays' earnings. 7:00 a.m. u.k. time and all the breaking stories alongside barclays and credit suisse. you want to go to the tliv blog. we have reporters around the world breaking down every single line that comes out of these earnings reports. and of course you want to turn it to bloomberg tv to hear from the ceos themselves. manus: absolutely. jes staley. if you have your iv, get a question in. it is your opportunity to join the conversation. a nice wrap up for us this week. as usual, you are driving the bus, changing the gears, looking after the show. annemarie: have a nice weekend.
♪ matt: good morning. welcome to "bloomberg markets: european open." i am matt miller in berlin. the markets say it is time to weigh the implications of the recent jump in treasury yields for equities and the slump that followed. it's a big day for corporate earnings in europe. the cash trade is less than an hour away. here are your top headlines. credit suisse posts a lower-than-expected loss, a
smaller than expected loss. it's a relief to ceo thomas gottstein after the first year in charge. we hear from him shortly. stocks fall as the chinese rally falters. oil rises, though, as the u.s. deep-freeze continues to hurt output. barclays earnings break eminently. we will speak to the bank's ceo, jes staley, plus, the chief executives of nestlé, daimler, and airbus. let's take a quick look at futures this morning after the drops that we saw yesterday. we see not a lot of direction today. ftse futures up 0.1 percent, dax futures down just marginally. if you take a look at u.s. futures after the mixed picture in their cash close yesterday, you will see red a