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tv   Bloomberg Markets European Close  Bloomberg  February 9, 2021 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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guy: from london, i'm guy johnson. we are counting you down to the european close here on "bloomberg markets." the u.k. detailing quarantine plans for inbound travelers. those arriving from high-risk countries will have to pay for hotel isolation. anyone caught breaking the rules could face a 10 year prison sentence. that is how seriously the government is taking it. italian bond yields fall into a record low as draghi pulls together a government in rome and christine lagarde keeps the bank of italy eyeing btp's. the french energy giant bucking the trend. dividends continue, and there's more money for sustainability investors. we will talk to an analyst about that story later on. we have been fading the stock move today, so we are down a
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little bit. this feels like a pause rather than a selloff. we have been going up over the last few days. we are seeing a similar thing in the united states. we are certainly keeping an eye on btp's or get we are continuing to see yields going lower there. we are still north of 50 basis points, but earlier on in the day, we actually went below it, and that is a new record. euro-dollar just shy of one dollar tony one cents, but the dollar is on offer once again. -- shy of $1.21 come about the dollar is on offer once again -- shy of $1.21, but the dollar is on offer once again. alix: is it enough to entice investors, or does it not matter because you see that kind of income? 10 year break even a little lower than what we saw yesterday, and the story we will talk about throughout the hour, you have the bloomberg barclays
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high-yield index. the yield is under 4%. i will say that again, under 4%. that feels bananas you're dealing with a lot of these indented companies, and particular, energy companies who are going to get a boost if you have brent at $60 a barrel. but will that hold? there is indication in the market that there's a little softness creeping higher. guy: we will come back to the dollar in just a moment. i want to talk about boeing for a moment. boeing scoring its first monthly when in terms of deliveries over a breast -- first monthly win in terms of deliveries over airbus since 2019. it delivered to 26 jets in january, including 21 737 maxes. it is clearing the lot right now. unsurprising, therefore, it is beating airbus. i think what you need to see this as is a huge cash flow boost for boeing, which it
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really needs right now. it is a huge boost for that business over in the united states. the dollar down for a third straight day. lawmakers in washington, obviously a huge factor into what is happening here. they are working on that $1.9 trillion relief plan. if that goes through, that is dollar negative. earlier today, dallas fed president robert kaplan telling bloomberg now is the time for bold monetary policy. >> while we are fighting this pandemic, and until it is clear we are out of the woods, i think we have got to be aggressive. the challenge will be after it is clear we have weathered it, we've got to move away from these extraordinary measures, and i think we will be far healthier for it. guy: we saw a dollar squeeze a few days back that seems to have cleared the market out. derek halpenny is joining us
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now. the direction of the dollar, it looks like stimulus is going to get delivered insignificant size. that is the narrative that has driven the dollar down. does that continue? derek: yes, i still think the broader conditions are still in place, and a big part of that reflation trade we are all talking about, the very large fiscal stimulus still to come is certainly a part of that. it certainly reinforces the trend in place. alix: is the world of u.s. exceptionalism now the new narrative for 2021? joe: i think -- derek: i think we are in an early phase of global recovery. of course, the u.s. is outperforming, but if the backdrop is a global story, even with the u.s. outperforming, you
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still have the appetite for rotating into non-dollars, and i think that is the crucial point. as long as you have global recovery elsewhere taking place, then the prospects for the dollar are less favorable. for example, if you take the period of the covid crisis and the liquidation of assets by foreign investors in the emerging-market space, based on the institute for international finance data, there was over $100 billion worth of liquidation out of emerging markets. in the period since november, we have seen a substantial move back into the emerging-market space , but only about2/3 of what was -- space, but only about 2/3 of what was sold in the covid crisis. that flow data i think is a good example of that.
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guy: you talk about this being a global recovery. is it going to be a global recovery? europe looks like it is lagging once again. we could end up with a whole different cycle. we just had one where the fed raises rates, albeit not very much, and the ecb doesn't. it is possible we could have a complete new cycle that looks exactly the same. the ecb never raises rates, the fed raises rates. why isn't that going to attract money back into the u.s.? derek: i think if the fed were raising rates anytime soon, any time soon being 18 months to two years, then your story has credibility. but we are a very long time away from the fed raising rates. the focus right now is about quantitative easing. will they or won't they taper? but i am not convinced that is the holy grail for u.s. dollar recovery. if you look back at the taper
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tantrum of 2013, when we had that signal of the tapering of quantitative easing, we did have a resurge in 10 year yields, but for the remainder of 2013, the u.s. dollar weakened. it is about short-term rates ultimately, and of course, tapering quantitative easing tends to un-anchor short-term rates. but it is still in the fed's hands to keep short-term rates very well anchored as recovery takes hold. but in my view, that could still weaken the u.s. dollar. alix: what do you make of btp's trading? derek: i was looking at this earlier, and i pulled out the ecb data. every two months, they update the actual purchases per
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country. the data through until the end of january which is now available, shows that the purchases of btp's's far and above its p, and by far the country that is benefiting most from the flex ability of pepp. that is your answer. we have this really monumental occasion when the ecb has shifted what it does, and it can effectively buy more of what it wants. they are doing that in italy. therefore, that selloff we had when yields move higher, it was never going to last because ultimately, the ecb can come back in and by more and more if they need -- and buy more and more if they need get that is the difference to previous quantitative easing programs from the ecb. guy: what is the best way to
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play the reflation trade in fx? derek: that is a good question when you've got the whole array in front of you. in the g10 space, if it really takes hold in the markets do start to really believe in inflation expectations, and we get the 10 year may become another 20 or so basis points, then the japanese yen, the swiss franc, where inflation is even further away, i think those currencies could certainly outperform in the g10 space. i think in the emerging-market space, there's lots of opportunity. as i mentioned earlier, the flows back into emerging markets , there is still a lot of catch up there, and it is the same in the ethics space. with the oil price moving like it is, and we think we could potentially get as high as $70 by the end of the year, there's
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plenty of scope in the likes of the russian ruble, the colombian peso, and other em fx currencies related to the price of oil. alix: a lot of em markets are lagging in vaccine distribution. obviously it is pretty bifurcated. how closely do you monitor that in relation to your thesis? derek: i think there are a lot of divergences still, and it is probably a much bigger risk in the emerging-market space then, say, and europe, because of the difference in vaccination rollouts. i don't buy that is a plausible trade. because of the severity in certain countries in the emerging market space, and because of the scale behind the rest of the countries, it is a bigger risk, but i would assume as we start to get to higher levels in developed economies, the role left will start to
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improve -- the rollouts will start to improve elsewhere. but it is certainly something to watch going forward. alix: derek, good to catch up. derek halpenny, thank you very much. coming up, we speak with a senior fellow at the german marshall fund, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> anyone who lies on the passenger locator form or tries to conceal they have been in a country on the red list in the 10 days before arrival here will face a prison sentence of up to 10 years. alix: prison term.
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that is serious stuff. that was u.k. health secretary matt hancock outlining plans for new quarantine restrictions for travelers. meanwhile, you have criticism of the vaccine rollout in europe. a senior member of angela merkel's bloc says they should go around the eu and buy vaccines directly instead. joining us is bloomberg's maria tadeo. walk us through what we know. maria: to some extent, the statement that was made by an official in angela merkel's party who is part of the german government establishment, but this idea that germany is just going to circumvent the european union and start buying vaccines from china and russia, it is very hard to see in real terms. we look at everything from the start of the vaccination campaign until now. even if there have been many hiccups along the way, it is a
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pan-european effort. every country gets a quota. in the european commission needs to handle this because otherwise, there could be very real tensions between member states of the european union. it is a political choice to some extent. i would just treat this very carefully. when it comes to the russia vaccine, this is not the first person that said this. a number of voices has said vaccine has been proven to be effective. the russians have asked for permission for it to be used in the european union, and it will depend on the european regulator to say whether or not it works, but again, it is russian, and there's geopolitics that come with it, too. if the regulators say it is safe, there's no reason why it shouldn't be. guy: thank you very much, indeed. bloomberg's maria tadeo joining us from brussels. we are joined now by jacob kirkegaard, senior fellow at the german marshall fund, joining us from brussels as well.
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jacob, was it a mistake for the eu to go at this with a multilateral approach? and now that we are in the mess we are in, do you think they should stick with it, or do you think there's going to be temptation by certain governments to go it alone here? jacob: first of all, i think it was the right choice made to have it done together. we can debate the execution by the european commission, but the alternative, which would have been some eu memory states, say france and germany going at alone and probably securing the bulk of early available vaccines, leaving other eu members with even less than they have now. the politics of that i believe would be much more severe for the eu than the current situation, so i think it was the right thing to do. it is also a basic reality that in the short run, the next couple of months, the vaccine supply is probably fixed, so there's very little gained from
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jumping ship at this moment because even if you went all in for the sputnik, for instance, it would still need to be certified by the emea and german authorities. it would probably need to be produced inside europe because i find it highly unlikely you would have it flown in from moscow and injected into the arms of europeans, so there isn't much gain from this. basically, the europeans have to toughen up and make sure they are ready to roll out once vaccines begin to come available in larger quantities, hopefully by late march, april. alix: i wonder what the input asian is that we are even talking about this. you look at hungary and poland -- the implication is that we are even talking about this. you look at hungary and poland, they are already rolling out on this. if europe can't get it together to get the vaccine distribution correct, we are going to keep hearing these calls, particularly from far left
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parties within some of these western countries. how do you see that conversation evolving? jacob: i think there is no doubt that this has been an old goal by the european commission, that they have not managed to execute this common purchase of vaccines in the speed at which they should. i would say that the root cause of this issue is that the commission doesn't have the capacity to take large financial risks in the way that individual countries like the u.s., the u.k., and others did early in the pandemic. the commission couldn't do it. they have asked member states for more money, but they were told in the late summer that you have to stick within your existing budget, and here we are. so it is what it is. it is not a great day for europe, but i would also say that if you stick to the best practices announced by some eu member states that are still targeting the 100% vaccination
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rate of all people over 16 by the end of june, early july, i think you could say that at the end of the day, europe still managed to deliver, but it is far from obvious that such an ambitious timetable will be adhered to by all e.u. membership's. but this will not be the commission's for the eu's fault, per se. guy: does the eu have a structural weakness that does not allow it to move quickly enough in crises? we seen it before. we are seeing it here. how do you resolve it? jacob: the basic answer is yes. i think the core issue here was that the commission was not able to take the financial and ultimately fiscal risks that a country government was able to do in the spring, over the
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summer last year. how you fix that is of course to give the european commission its own budget. it is basically a pot of money it could put at risk. for instance, the financial support at the time of signing these agreements, very uncertain, risky, experiment of vaccines. basically, the way you would deal with this is you would give the commission its own budget and ability to take this risk in real time rather than the case right now, which is it has to go back to the get the permission by 27 number states, some richer than others, some viewing it with more urgency than others. that is what ultimately slows down the eu as a decision-maker in a crisis like this. alix: is a biden adminstration going to help or hurt this cohesion? jacob: ultimately, if the biden adminstration were to put additional constraints on the
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trade and cross-border supplies of vaccine and components for vaccines, this would obviously be a major sticking point. but ironically, or unfortunately, it will probably also cement further the eu cohesion saying that we have to have all of this done inside the eu itself, which will basically feed the vaccine nationalist narrative. so i certainly hope it doesn't come to that. there's already talk with regards to the johnson & johnson vaccine which is being produced in europe, but might have to be bottled in the united states, and there are concerns this might lead to protectionism and all of these things. so there is potential still that everybody shoots themselves in the foot and reduces medium-term production capacity of vaccines by embracing the kind of nationalism we see, but i certainly hope the biden adminstration will not do it,
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and the commission will not continue down this path, which it basically initiated a couple of weeks ago with its so-called export control pork transparency measures -- export control or transparency measures. alix: jacob, thanks a lot. jacob kirkegaard of the german marshall fund. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you switch to xfinity mobile, you're choosing to get connected to the most reliable network nationwide, now with 5g included. discover how to save up to $300 a year with shared data starting at $15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. you can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store.
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♪ ritika: it is time for the bloomberg business flash. i'm ritika gupta. the chief financial officer of eli lilly has resigned over allegations of an inappropriate personal relationship. the drugmaker says on independent investigation found what it called consensual, though inappropriate communications between the employee and certain other employees. the conduct was not related to any business matters. european lawmakers reportedly
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want to take a cue from australia when it comes to big tech companies. according to "the financial times," they want to force google, facebook, and other to pay. the eu parliament is looking to overhaul digital regulations. that is the latest business flash. guy: thank you very much, indeed. actually, where this is coming from is down the road on the right, which is the european parliament. a number of parliamentarians shepherding through the two key pieces of legislation in terms of digital regulation are looking at what is happening in australia and saying, we need to do the same thing. this could be a huge blow to the likes of google. google is talking about withdrawing from australia because of what is happening with news and being forced to pay for it. . you can't withdraw from europe. alix: i just wonder what the u.s. does.
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i was thinking about this earlier this morning. how does this help consumers? for the u.s., that kind of action would be very much based on how does that help me consume news, and i generally don't know how it does, so i wonder how the u.s. still tries to get a part of that pie. guy: should you pay for news i guess is the question, and are those that are producing news fact checked, well resourced, being paid the appropriate amount of money? alix: should you pay agora court -- pay aggregators of news? that is the question. guy: and should they pay those that are producing? the other thing coming down the pike as well is some sort of tax on digital distribution, plus e-commerce. we will wait and see. the european close is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: the rally running out of gas today. let's talk about where we are as
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we come into the close. stoxx 600 died about -- down about .1%. we have not gone negative today in a meaningful way which is worth bearing in mind. we are at 41 on the stoxx 600 -- 410 on the stoxx 600. kind of a drift sideways. ftse down by .4%. i want to flag what's happening in the currency market. btp's below basis points. we are back above 121. you kind of look at what's happening in the bond market in the dollar to figure out where we are going with equities. the story in terms of that big uplift we saw in u.s. yields, we have a lot of supply coming through which is worth bearing
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in mind. we have seen the dollar back on the back foot. that's indicative of the fact maybe people are feeling positive. let's talk about some of the sector breakdown stories. a little bit of a reversal. energy is down at the bottom. at the top it is much more mixed. the staples are up there. health care is up there. not taking much away from the sectors story today. waiting for another clear signal to come out. let's good individual names. u.k. housing market looking good right now. the stock up by 2%. there seems to be a certain narrative from analysts we can see upgrades coming through from that. cd project. this is one of the stocks we targeted a few days back as part of that reddit story.
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victim of a ransomware attack that will impact the re-rollout it has. it has had problems. it had to get withdrawn and now they are facing the stock down again. we come onto total. down 2.1% today. alix: good lead up. joining us now is christian malik, who has a neutral rating on total. why is the stock down when total beat expectations? christian: the first point is the defending dividend champion from last year. when you think about why they are, they had to make compromises elsewhere. first and foremost their capex. $12 billion this year.
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it has to go up to underwrite future cash flows that will fund their transition. the second is returns. it means any future buybacks could be quite limited unless we see oil prices staying with er. guy: you think oil prices will stay with er? -- where they are? christian: there is a deficit in february of one million barrels. we have been bullish oil since last year. there is a chance it could overshoot only because as we see spare capacity and opec come down, they are adding barrels in april, it's important signaling to the bears that they believe the oil price should be where it is. if the saudi's were to raise production because demand is holding up better than expected, that potentially is where we see the oil price start to move significantly higher.
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alix: it does seem no one really believes the rally. pointing to the lockdowns. some softness in the spot market. prices up a little bit -- excuse me, down a little bit. what do you make of that? christian: it's a great point. it is a slightly surreal situation we are in. we have got this decoupling, particularly in europe. while at the margin they are oil stocks. they want exposure to oil and believe oil prices could be away in. having said that, with europe still on lockdown and the fact demand has not really recovered and you have oil prices propped up by opec, there is this worry it should not really be at $60.
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it could correct by $10 to $15. the jury is out on demand. more importantly, once we see a deficit emerge and -- that could be where the journalists started stepping. -- start to step in. that could be the entry point. guy: it is interesting. while we are not seeing cash equities really reflecting the rally we are seeing in the energy complex, we are seeing huge amounts of coal buying for energy stocks. this has been pointed out on the market live program earlier on my terminal. i am wondering whether there are those that are spending a lot of time focusing on the cold market, the options market, seeing something different here. or is this part of the narrative we have been thinking about more broadly with beaten up stocks
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getting bid up? christian: grade-point. -- great point. we are calling for a 5 million barrel deficit within two years. if not treated, it takes oil prices over $100. as much as we have seen corrections to the downside, we could see it correction to the upside. that deficit is appearing on the radar of the options traders, the macro funds. can the equities world, there is skepticism to if we will see that deficit or will shale production respond like we had before. in some ways when biden got elected we saw a real surge from the macro who can see this as a game changer and lack of future production. that means we get to see a deficit, which could see prices
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significantly higher. alix: i'm trying to figure out where you will have the equity of that upside oil prices. this goes back to total and shale. if the bmp's will not spend -- they are changing their names and business models. how do you play that? christian: for us, we are keeping it simple. we want energy transmission to be constructive and profitable. if we see an up cycle, we want to be exposed to companies who can give you the max cash return through a high oil price. having cut their dividends on the capex, is now $35 to $45, at $60 there is significant free cash flow. when you're buying these guys for physical gearing and through
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buybacks and raising dividends, the equity story is as much exposure to the higher cost curve with a positive transition but first and foremost let's keep their bread and butter. is primarily around who do i buy on an oil beater? that is where shale and bp differentiate, particularly shell. guy: thank you for spending the time with us today. jp morgan head of oil and gas research. not much to talk about. final numbers here in europe. the markets are now closed. mixed session. i am struggling to take anything away directionally. more coverage at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪
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ritika: this is "bloomberg
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markets." coming up, an interview with brendan kennedy. this is bloomberg. ♪ guy: the records continue to fall. junk bond yields below 4% in the united states for the first time ever. let's talk about the search for yields. sonali: if you take a look, it is very cheap to tissue debt right now. you have investors clamoring for more debt. they are asking bankers to go to companies and ask them to issue more debt, even below 4% here because it is so hard to find yields right now. what does that look like? when we look at issuance for the year for high-yield debt, we are seeing a real surge.
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we have $69 billion worth of high-yield debt issued for yesterday. that is a significant amount. it might be enough to raise the debt capital market -- the debt of the major banks. when you look at high-yield and investment-grade, investment-grade debt also takes higher -- ticked higher. not as high as the high-yield debt among the risky borrowers. the picture looks like it is getting better for corporate america. we are seeing an increase in downgrades -- decreasing downgrades, increasing upgrades. the risky borrowers are not as risky as they were late last year. since the u.s. election we are seeing a rally. let's see how long that lasts. alix: i will take it from here. richard zogheb, citi head of global capital markets joins us now. that was a great set up. junk yields below 4%. i need to get your thoughts on
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that. richard: there is not a lot of margin for error when you are buying not so high-yield paper inside 4%. i think the investor base is desperate to get yield. they are making a bet. they are betting on three things. one, even with the democratic-controlled legislature and executive branch, rates will stay low for a while. if they buy around 4% or cheaper, they will be ok because underlying rates will be cheap. the second thing is the default rate will not tick up that high. last year it did not get as high as people thought it would in covid. i think that has a lot to do with how much liquidity is in the market, from banks and from all these private credit funds and direct lenders that have come up. the third thing they are counting on is a lot of m&a activity with all these spac's
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and financial sponsors looking for transactions, looking for companies to buy. they get a nice return if they get the purchase and they are refinanced. alix: there are a lot of worries about inflation and rising interest rates on the long end. how fragile are these rallies we are seeing right now to the extent people are more concerned about rising interest rates? richard: there definitely is some concern about rising interest rates. that has a lot to do with the fact democrats control everything in washington. the way you see that manifest is you see some investors locate more money into leveraged loans. we have seen inflows into leveraged loans. last year you saw outflow. people are hedging their bets by going into that floating product. i think most of the investors believe the inflation and rising rates are good out there.
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there is probably more downside risk to rates than huge upside given we have a long way to go in terms of the economic recovery. a long way to go until we get to herd immunity and people are acting in a more normal fashion. guy: good morning. we have cleared 4% today. you still see more downside. how much lower could that number go? richard: i think you can pick up up to 50 basis points, believe it or not. the reason i say that is because we have not -- we have seen a pickup in issuance this year. it has not been as great as we expected. a lot we have seen has been refinancing of old high-yield paper. the net increase in paper outstanding is quite modest. if we don't get a big pickup in m&a activity, we will continue to see a demand and supply
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imbalance any search for yields. that will drive folks to get the paper up. alix: where is the opportunity? i am struggling. a couple of years ago it was about distressed bonds. even as early as last year, the market was like the fall will be bad but that never happened. richard: brightpoint. i -- great point. a lot of the obvious opportunities have been bid away because of all the liquidity out there. where we are seeing some action is on deeply affected companies in deeply affected industries. companies that if there was not enough liquidity would probably be going bankrupt and folks saying i will go after the risky's portion of the market -- riskiest portion of the market.
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it will cushion that and support me and i can do better and outperform the rest of the market. there is some action there an opportunity. it is highly risky. it's a very aggressive short-term bet but that ceiling thing out there in terms of trying to get real yield. sonali: let's talk about that risk. what is your note of caution for all these investors pouring into things that may be some of them are not used divine? -- to buying? richard: the marketplace across the board really are counting on a big pickup in economic activity in the second half of this year. believing once we get the summer there will be enough people vaccinated, we will get closer to herd community, consumers will spend and businesses will bring people back to offices and we will have a huge pickup in economic activity. there is a lot of risk in that. the second area of risk is the
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amount of debt companies in the affected industries had to put on to whether the pandemic. they now have very debt heavy capital structures. you will have to closely monitor those companies. if the economy comes back nicely and they take advantage of the strong equity market and strong m&a market, they will deleverage to the equity market and they will be fine. if they try to ride out the debt stack, they could run into trouble if we don't get a huge robust economic recovery. if history is our guide, it will take longer than people expect. guy: if they do what you suggest, how many upgrades are we going to see in the next cycle? richard: we should see a few. if all these companies in the affected industries, airlines, cruise ships, movie theater companies, if they take advantage of the robust equity
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market, all this fax searching for products -- the spac's searching for products, they should ride the economic recovery and we should see quite a bit of upgrades. the bear market case is the economic recovery does not come back as quickly as we expected. it takes longer for the vaccine to rollout. that deeply affects companies and they become troubled and people start to move their money away from them. that is when we could go the other way in terms of downgrades. sonali: is that enough to feed your team another record quarter? richard: it's a very difficult year-over-year comparison for us. we had such a great year last year providing liquidity to all of our clients in the pandemic. i am worried we are going to have a tough comparison
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year-over-year. m&a activity has picked up. i am hopeful that will continue. but candidly, we will need that -- we will need more activity and port to be sustained for us to really continue to have good quarters and a good year and debt capital markets -- in debt capital markets. guy: thank you for spending time today, richard zogheb. a bit of news coming through relating to bpce. it is basically putting its tender out to squeeze out minority shareholders. this was largely expected. we will see what the reaction is with the share price tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪
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guy: we are certainly not done with the rest of the day. the impeachment trial beginning at 1:00 p.m. new york time. 1:45, we are getting biden, yellen, all meeting with business leaders about the need for the relief plan to go forward. jamie dimon will be at that meeting. it will be one to pay attention to. the three-your auction. big week for auctions. after the bell it just carries on. lyft and twitter. alix: that will be a lot of fun. tomorrow we get andrew bailey delivering -- we have jay powell
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speaking to the economic club of new york. earnings from gm, uber and coca-cola. we will be talking to the ceo of coca-cola james quincy. what is -- what his demand forecast is, the vaccine rollout, and what that will mean for people buying stuff. guy: it will be interesting to see how people back to work. people back to bars potentially. alix: slow down. bars? what? what is that? guy: let's talk about those bars that could be on prison windows. alix: well done. did you plan that? guy: the story of the day is the u.k. threatening 10 years in prison if you basically lie about your entry into the u.k. and comfy one of the red countries. basically the hotlist countries
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the u.k. is so worried about for new variants. that shows how worried the government is. alix: it feels like it is so extreme, what it actually happened? when i got grounded for six months all the time when i was a teenager. at some point you stop caring because six-month is so long. isn't that kind of thing? guy: i think the two probably are a little -- they are obviously out there to grab headlines. the other headline is it is illegal to go on holiday in the united kingdom at the moment. the government says it is illegal to go on holiday. it is against the law. did you think you are living in a world where it would be against the law to come into this country from another country and you could go to prison for 10 years? crazy times. alix: yeah. crazy times. we also thought the vaccine
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would be a panacea and all of a sudden you got your shot, you can go on holiday. that is nowhere near the case. i don't see how that shakes out. is that like a winter holiday kind of thing rather than anything in the summer or the spring or the fall? guy: i would take any kind of holiday at the moment. i would not want to break the law to have one. definitely don't want a holiday at the pleasure of her majesty. let's put it that way. alix: coming up, senator bill cardin will be joining with david westin. don't miss that interview as we await stimulus details. this is bloomberg. ♪
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david: from bloomberg world
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headquarters in new york, welcome to "balance of power," the world the politics meets the world the business. donald trump's second impeachment trial begins in an hour from now. to set the stage welcome our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. what are we expecting? kevin: i got off the phone with a democratic source to walk me through the procedure. the democrats in the senate and president biden at the white house are hoping this trial does wrap up by early next week. they don't want this to dominate the news coming out of washington, d.c., especially as stimulus talks continued to intensify. in the next hour we anticipate the second impeachment trial for former president trump will begin underway -- be getting underway with each site getting about 16 hours to make their case.

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