tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg February 2, 2021 8:00am-9:00am EST
>> it is going to be more of a force to be reckoned with then perhaps it was before. >> it is probably going to end in tears for a lot of these retail investors and hedge funds. >> it is, from a financial stability perspective, still robust. >> we have not seen any evidence that these trades will cause any systemic risk. >> if you don't reestablish functioning wall street stability, it is disastrous for the economy. >> everyone is looking for it bogeyman, but i think we will find that nothing has really changed.
>> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa abramowicz. tom: good morning, everyone. "bloomberg surveillance" on radio, on television. snow day for the eastern seaboard. this just in, with futures up 29 , jonathan ferro crossed the alps. it was extraordinary, the trek north out of italy across the alps of midtown to get to 59th street. jonathan: i walked to work and was thinking of mayor bill de blasio as i was jumping over huge hurdles and muttering really nice things about him. tom: i'm sure you were. i had a little bit of trouble getting the bentley out of the garage today, but other than that, it was great. great weather reports for so many of you on bloomberg radio on how we mop up this storm and move forward. good morning to boston. on television, but you need to
know is it is good in markets. we will do the data check out of -- we will get the data check out of the way. yield is one point 1123% on the 10 year -- is 1.1123% on the 10 year. jonathan: one of the consensus trades for this year is a weaker dollar. we have just started to see that spending come back through. we are seeing it very unsynchronized at the moment because the vaccine rollout is very fragmented. the united states is doing pretty decently. i still say headline of the last 24 hours is we now have more in america who have received a vaccine then have contracted covid, at least by the testing we have done, and i think that is a really important evolution over the last month or so. now we need to see the results. can we reopen in the middle of this year, at least pair back some of these restrictions and reengage with the economy?
tom: chris grisanti to join us here in a moment. let us start with robinhood. huge cash input again. every time they do that, they have to commit to their investors to give them more of the spac or the ipo down the road. jonathan: it is the story of this week and the story of next year as well. democratization of markets, getting access for more and more people away from just the institutional investor. what we saw last week is that we still haven't done enough. we talked about this several times in the last 24 hours. the stock was still trading, but many people on those trading platforms lost access to it that is not to suggest anything the various was going on. it is to suggest that we have more work to do. i think that is the push for the next several years. tom: and a moving story into the weekend as well. you've got to believe we have a lot more on this. i do want to go through the three stocks quickly. amc just south.
gamestop moments ago, a new low, $137, down 63% plus from the $512 high where i bought 12 shares. and silver, a completely different drift function, but silver making a set of new lows as well. i've got silver at $27.77. let's bring in someone on amazon, alphabet, and conservative management investment. chris grisanti is with us. what do amazon and alphabet signal this afternoon? chris: we are expecting decent earnings, and i think it will be more of the same strong growth through the pandemic. great companies to own when times are tough, but also great companies to own as the economy recovers. the spotlight is on gamestop, but the stake is amazon, google and facebook, etc.
tom: one of the ways you go higher our selective walls of worry. is there enough gloom out there where you've got major enthusiasm about a leg up? chris: i think so. everyone for the last week has been talking about how the markets are broken because gamestop has gone up 1000% and we need regulation. it seems to be that markets are working pretty well. gamestop is coming back down to earth. no broker-dealer has gone bankrupt. people made or lost money as capitalists do. but i think the attention ought to come back to where the cash flow really is, which for many is the large-cap technology companies. jonathan: orderly is a word we hear a lot area can you walk me through the distinction between the orderly price action you witnessed in something you would consider to be more disorderly? chris: sure. obviously, disorderly has a new
definition in the dictionary under gamestop, and it was the short squeeze really of my 35 year career. but again, the system works. investors plug the hole of the hedge funds and robinhood so that we could continue through it. i don't think this is a terrible story of a broken system. i think it is a system that is stressed, and then work. jonathan: any situation -- and then worked. jonathan: any situation you take advantage of? chris: when prices move without fundamental reason for them moving, there's always opportunity. while the focus was on the small short squeezes, the rest of the market, as you guys covered, really dropped the worst since october. stocks like facebook came in with quite strong earnings last week. it's down 10% or 15% from highs of a couple of months ago so we
moved in there. we would move into lockheed martin. we bought a new position in texas instruments. we call semiconductors the oil of the digital economy. i love that stuff was left by the wayside. tom: chris grisanti, and gamestop is breaking down to new lows now, in terms of measured investment, it does come back to earnings and revenue. i guess we are seeing earnings resiliency. are we seeing revenue resiliency? chris: i don't think yet. you are for the companies that we all knew were resilient, like amazon, but i think you will see more cyclical stuff like disney come up with the theme parks, like comcast, you will see these companies show their resiliency as the economy opens up, and the market is anticipating that. but we are in the middle of the cold, dark winter.
they've already vaccinated almost 10% of the population. if you roll the tape forward three or four months, it is hard not to be worried about the economy overheating, but i am very confident it is going to get better and you will see that revenue growth. tom: we are getting out front now. a repricing for the end of summer, or are we already pricing into 2022? chris: i don't think so. i think when an economy comes out of recession, and remember this was a deep recession from any travel companies, restaurant companies, revenue and earnings growth typically take analysts by surprise on the upside. so how many of us are sitting at home planning that vacation we haven't been able to take for 18 months? i think you are going to see pent-up demand, strong earnings. have we priced some of that in?
absolutely? have we priced all of it in? i don't think so. jonathan: do you are a member when we talked about mr. o'leary over at ryanair? he came on bloomberg and said the beaches will be packed in europe next summer. three months later, does anyone think the beaches will be packed in europe this summer? tom: no, and again, it is about the vaccine recovery. as you mentioned earlier, the fact is we are skiing -- we are seeing better statistics in the united states. i am going to say this on the x axis as much as i can, it is a daily effort to get people vaccinated. to me, that is nonlinear. it really pays off down the road. jonathan: final question, chris. is -- biased here? chris: sure, but i think you are being too pessimistic, as usual. jonathan: i've got a flight for italy at the end of august. i've got skin in the game. i'm just asking a question. [laughter] chris: it's a matter of timing. it is not a matter of if, it is
a matter of when. jonathan: i hope so.chris, grec. tom: thank you. jonathan: can we get back to gamestop quickly? let's have a look. these stocks are cratering this morning. gamestop, mc lower. -- gamestop, amc lower. silverlake, this is what they converted the debt at to equity. they sold that steak at an average price of $16.05. that was one of the trades of last week, one of the big plays of last week. it came from silverlake. tom: again, strong hands finding a place in a moving market. i make jokes about it, but there's real distribution, taking a page from luigi mata, there's massive buying and selling. all of these numbers are approximate. folks, these are really rough support levels. those are my personal support levels.
maybe you find support at the 90th area and at the 60-ish area. that is not codified or cutting stone. that is -- that is not codified or cut in stone. jonathan: need to talk about payrolls the little later in this program. counting you down to payrolls friday. we are looking for around 50k, and 50k does not get it done. tom: the yield move and the equity move we may see, i'm sorry, the fed has a mandate to look at that jobs move, and they are really not going to act until they see jobs move, and there is no indication of that right now. jonathan: ism was ok yesterday. not as high as it was, but still ok. the employment component, ok. deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine microbiology professor, joining us very shortly.
did you just quote the dow? tom: i quoted the dow futures, 30,361. jonathan: value add. do you want to do it again? where's the dow? tom: the dow is 30,359. amazon is going to be a new dow component. jonathan: ok. [laughter] just the fact that that might be true, don't you have a problem with that? tom: i don't think i should comment. jonathan: ok. tom: speculation. jonathan: this is bloomberg. ♪ ritika: with the first word news, i'm ritika gupta. president biden intends to keep pushing for a large pandemic relief bill even if he has to bypass senate republicans. the president and 10 gop senators had what one lawmaker called a very productive meeting on stimulus options. another said there were areas of agreement, but also areas the
republican plan doesn't address. president biden will keep u.s. tariffs and place on aluminum imports from the united arab emirates. he's reversing a last-minute move by donald to grant the uae relief from the duties. president says the evidence indicates that imports from the uae may still displace domestic aluminum production. for the first time in at least four decades, exxon mobil has reported an annual loss. the largest company in the world posted a write-down of u.s. natural gas and other assets. excluding that giant impairment, exxon returned to profit in the fourth quarter after three consecutive losses. still, the company's financial performance has fallen to the point where its dividend is now under pressure. fourth quarter profit rose more than expected at united parcel service. the surge of online holiday
shopping boosted package volume it allowed the company to raise its prices. they blamed continued economic uncertainty from the coronavirus pandemic. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. want to save hundreds on your wireless bill? with xfinity mobile you can. how about saving hundreds on the new samsung galaxy s21 ultra 5g? you can do that too. all on the most reliable network. sure thing! and with fast nationwide 5g included at no extra cost. we've got you covered. so join the carrier rated #1 in customer satisfaction. and get a new samsung galaxy starting at $17 a month. learn more at xfinitymobile.com or visit your local xfinity store today.
is the linchpin of our national strategy and will be a vital part of containing the virus and stopping community spread. but in the interim, wearing a well fitting mask is vital. without masks, the virus and the new variants will have too easy a time continuing to grow. jonathan: that was the white house covid response team senior advisor. it is a fear a lot of people are grappling with right now in the united states and u.k., across the euro and worldwide. alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us tomorrow. futures up 30 on the s&p, about 0.8%. euro-dollar, a breakdown on the euro. one dollar -- $1.2040, a breakdown of 0.1%.
you've got your head around where we are the moment. let's talk about where we are in amc, gamestop, silver, the glory trades of the past week or so. wow, it has been brutal on the upside, brutal the downside squeeze as well. gamestop this morning absolutely plunging, down 40%. tom: i got a log chart of gamestop up, and it is not lognormal. the slope up is as same as the slope down. you could look for a drop here ever larger. jonathan: and if there isn't a strong fundamental reason to keep it up there, gravity is what we are seeing. tom: $134 now. on a log basis, i've got informal support in the 90
level, and also down to the 60 level. washington state and the university of washington are definitive in microbiology. leading the charge academically is deborah fuller. they do terrific work across all of biology and virology as well. dr. fuller, thank you so much for joining us. the mayo clinic tells me i need a tetanus shot every 10 years. to pro -- do pros like you assume we will be vaccinated for covid into the future? dr. fuller: we are anticipating that these particular viruses, as we see this virus evolve and see new variants occur, that this virus is going to be endemic. that means it will remain in our population for years to come, and that we can anticipate occasional outbreaks and possibly even new varianta to emerge, but we do have a weapon to fight that, and that is with vaccines. just like you mentioned with tetanus, that is every 10 years.
we know that is how often you need to get revaccinated to sustain your immunity. we are going to be studying that first sars-covi-2. tom: do you assume that this covid vaccination is specific to this 2020 bug, or can it be used on other covid viruses forward? dr. fuller: that is a great question. we are studying that right now in terms of particularly the development of vaccines, trying to design new vaccines that will eventually not just affect this, but could we designed vaccines to affect future variants that we haven't even seen yet? the way we do that is we try to focus immune responses against parts of the virus that will not undergo viral evolution. they just can't, otherwise it
would result in loss of the virus itself. so tweaking viruses and updating them to keep pace of emerging variants is a common practice, one that we know works , and we anticipate it will work for this one, too. jonathan: i keep going back to vaccine nationalism. can you just comment on it, how worried you are about that? dr. fuller: vaccine nationalism. defined that for me. jonathan: sure. the u.k. is far more concerned about vaccinating its population beyond the risk of society to try to get the whole population to what we would consider herd immunity, at the expense of not making sure the developing world has access to the vaccine, and therefore we could have a proliferation of what we have seen and it would stop us from being able to reopen the economy. is that ok? dr. fuller: that's a major
concern, as long as there is virus somewhere in the world, we are going to be battling this pandemic. so it needs to be a worldwide collective effort to shut down this pandemic everywhere in the world. that is why we are looking at wanting to make sure that we develop vaccines that are going to be able to be distributed to far reaches of the world, be cost-effective, and hopefully work potentially in a single shot. jonathan: deborah, thank you. deborah fuller, university of washington school of medicine microbiology professor. the good news, and we should revisit it, and the last four hours for the united states is the amount who have received a vaccine in the united states outstrips the amount who have contracted covid-19. i think that is a really important thing. tom: it is, and you've got to see what the linearity is. the linearity day after day, and
i am frankly optimistic on that, i speak as an amateur. we've got to look very clearly at gamestop, really breaking down again. i am going to make clear, this is a very well behaved decline. it is acting where you see a set of lower highs as you go along, tick by tick. jonathan: it is just really, really ugly. the crowded short on top of that is gone. not there anymore. tom: i want to talk about the real yield. you are going to have your team of 30 to get "the real yield" out on friday afternoon. what is so important here is inflation expectations. they haven't given up one iota in the last 48 hours. we have higher yield, higher inflation expectations where the real yield is diminished. jonathan: i think the fed would welcome that. tom: yes, yes. jonathan: i think they would be quite happy with that. tom: this is really important.
the fed once the market to act to take away the accommodations. jonathan: bonds lower, yields up, curve steeper. equities advancing. talk a little better about crude as well -- a little bit about crude as well. we kissed the $55 handle. in a couple of minutes, i will run you through what is happening in high yield as well. for the federal reserve, they are probably quite happy with what is happening in high yield, too. credit spreads have staged tight. the headline across the bloomberg, more supply coming from the likes of boeing. we saw apple in the last 24 hours as well. tom: apple is high yield. [laughter] could they have done 100 year piece? jonathan: they can do what they want. five year fixed, 32 basis points above treasuries for apple. you joke.
jonathan: a look at a bullish morning stateside. for audience worldwide, live on tv and radio, this is "bloomberg surveillance." alongside tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. lisa abramowicz back with us tomorrow. the nasdaq up. the russell up .9%. the gains continue. the important headline, the amount of people who have received a vaccine in the united states now greater then the people who have contracted covid. we are making real progress. the stimulus conversation is ongoing. switch up the board. high yield spreads. this is high-yield over the last year. a huge breakout in spring. lisa will not like this move.
tighter and tighter. near the post-covid heights. tom: how much is that due to the fed? jonathan: pretty much all of it. this is what the fed wanted to see. easier financial conditions. the likes of boeing and apple -- $50 billion is the supply taken down in high-yield in the united states in january. 1/5 of that was from the ccc bucket. one third was energy. tom: say it is $10 billion benefiting these big name companies because the fed wants price up and yield down. how does that redound to small business in america? jonathan: you hope it keeps people employed and engaging with the economy and you hope it support small business. as we know, small business is
not playing this market like the big liars. in crude, 55 handle on wti. where are we now? nice rebound in crude. tom: a very bullish morning. dow futures up 230, 30,300. brent, $58 a barrel. david page with us. i love your paragraph looking at the tantrum. what is the tantrum of 2021? what does it look like? david: we had an echo of what we might see, but i think as we move into spring, market start to focus on the fact the fit is not going to be there forever. at some point it is going to start slowing the pace, not even stopping but just slowing. although the fed has done a good job, the time to discuss it is
pretty soon. when the economy shows more robust signs of picking up, which is not seem that far away, the market will focus on how long the fed can remain accommodative. in spring we see yield really starting to push up. tom: jon ferro just mentioned boeing and apple with transactions. do we have an idea we see the flow of benefit going to big companies and big financials? david: you've talked about tightening through spreads. that is a backstop in the market. the fed has not had to do that much in terms of purchasing. what we have seen is a market that has had confidence there is somebody back there and that is not going to change. what is going to change his short-term purchases. clearly what we are seeing is
lower interest rates over the longer-term affecting several areas of the economy. yes they are impacting large companies. there also giving jobs to the housing market. we are also seeing a pickup in auto sales. all of those sectors of the economy are benefiting. jonathan: vaccinating and reopening. nothing else seems to matter. let's get your assumption for the rest of the year. a guest said i should keep my flight booked for the summer for europe. this is what the u.k. had to say, we are still working on quarantine plans using hotels. when are you expecting things to start reopening? when did tom and i get to go to london and host the show from london? david: from our perspective it london, reopening means our kids go back to school and maybe we are able to go to something other than the supermarket once or twice a week. there is a polarity.
what we are looking for is to see some of the restrictions relaxed. they will not go away anytime soon. even though the u.k. is doing well in terms of rolling out the vaccine, we worry the heightened stage of the u.k. variant means we could still see high numbers and the remaining population through the spring, and that will be difficult for the government to ease the restriction so quickly. in spring we start to ease some of the restrictions. we are hopeful that government can hit its target towards the end of this month. we are hopeful we can get herd immunity levels sometime around the summer, july or august. there is a lot of uncertainty around all of those components. jonathan: how do you track that? do you look to places like israel as a case study for how high the bar might be before we have to pare back restrictions? david: we will do, but we are
working very theoretical at the moment which is why we are so uncertain about the outlook. that is before you start factoring in the uncertainties on how the economy will react to restrictions. we are assuming once you get significant portions of the population vaccinated so they are not likely to be consuming the amount of health care those vulnerable groups normally do, then you can start paring back restrictions, allowing the virus to spread more in the remaining population. it is a balancing act, but is very difficult and are not many presidents. we will learn from those that are running slightly ahead. tom: jon ferro and tom keene on radio and television wrote wide with david page. lisa abramowicz in punxsutawney, pennsylvania today. silver breaking down to a new low. gamestop bouncing off facebook 130 number. david page, i look at where we are. you work for a big insurance
combine. what is your post-covid guesstimate of the trend of our actuarial assumptions? do we stay low on a disinflationary bogey or can you actually build in some form of a higher statistic for our actuarial assumption out five years or 10 years? david: when you're looking at the inflation aspect, it is very regional. one of the things that has changed in the course of last month has been the switch that the democrats now have control over the senate, and the lien in they are now doing toward stimulus -- and the lean in they are doing towards the stimulus. they are in mind this campaign manifesto bided had to significantly increase infrastructure brings forward the point at which the u.s. closes any form of capacity into
next year. then you can start genuinely looking at building inflation and achieving what the fed is trying to do, which is get a modest inflation overshoot. that is plausible with the degree of stimulus in the u.s.. if you look at europe and japan, it still looks a long way from either of those central banks being able to achieve inflation close to target. the ecb forecast is well short, even over the end of 2023. there you still problems of demographics and, worryingly, used of the downward trend in inflation expectations which makes it all the harder. inflation is geography specific. the u.s. looks like it has started to make headway. jonathan: we are down 42% on gamestop for those of you still following.
amc, soft silver as well. do you think europe or japan can engineer a recovery that leads to higher policy rates at the boj and the ecb? jonathan: over the 10 years or any point? jonathan: 10 years. david: we do think over 10 years you can get back to a point where you start to see the rates rise because you see the supply-side responsive as well. in the near term, we fully expect the bank of japan to be on hold. tom: -- jonathan: great to catch up. david page. that would be a key difference if they are able to manage in economy recovery, engineer the recovery. the ecb did not achieve that the previous 10 years. tom: there is no question about it. i want to look up the next 12 months. the economic data today, we have automobile sales. i do not know where you are
living. i see across all price points new cars, new cars. a run rate of $60 million is not a terrible economy. jonathan: where you do see a terrible economy is in the labor market. we get claims on thursday morning. tom: another 900,000. jonathan: 12 months ago we talked about 200,000. tom: this is a partition emily wilkins and kevin cirilli are talking about. how do you apply income replacement and income substitution. i am not fearing that yet in washington they are targeting those who've been hammered. jonathan: let's get the board up quickly. tom: i decided to do my lisa thing. did i do ok? go. jonathan: futures up about nine basis points. in the fx market, euro-dollar 1.2037, down .2%. we have a weaker euro story.
intriguing stuff. euro-dollar 1.2037. might have the move towards 1.30, we break down. in the bond market, yields up on the curves steeper. yields up three basis points. tom: weaker yen gets my attention. a lot of calls for range bound and even some for a stronger yen. 105 is the point today. brent, we are not near $60. that is the benchmark. this is the most constructive tape i've seen in ages. jonathan: can i promo my show? tom: which one? jonathan: the one that starts in 20 minutes? lisa shalett of morgan stanley. krishna memani. that will be very good. tom: equity markets a little way from gamestop.
jonathan: thank you for allowing me to do that. tom: you get out in front of the real yield as well? i'm sure you have that locked in. jonathan: is only tuesday. we can do that tomorrow. tom: they have to decide whether a be half hour, our, two our real yield. jonathan: we started five minutes and work our way back towards 30. from new york, lisa is back tomorrow. looking forward to that. this is bloomberg. ritika: with the first word news, i am ritika gupta. president biden and republican senators have agreed to keep negotiating a bipartisan coronavirus relief package, but the president made clear he will keep pushing for a large relief measure even if he has to bypass the republicans. president biden once about as much as three times as republicans are offering. mitch mcconnell has waded into the intraparty fight over gop
representative marjorie taylor greene. mcconnell not mention her by name but announced her lies in conspiracy theories. house democrats are threatening to punish green if republican officials do not take action over her past incendiary remarks and social media post. here in new york, we are being hammered by a snowstorm that could become one of the worst in the region's history. forecasters say the worst is over. still, the city could end up getting as much is of snow. rail and air services at a standstill and roads are impassable at some points. harley davidson posted a surprise loss in the fourth quarter. motorcycle shipments fell 48%. harley is expected to unveil a long-awaited turnaround plan later today that comes after months of crosscut and management shakeups designed to make the company leaner and more profitable. the dating app where women make the first move, bumble, has
filed for an ipo. bumble plans to sell more than 34 million shares. bloomberg has learned bumble may list around valentine's day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. ♪
it is an extraordinary tuesday. not only the storm in new york city up and down the eastern seaboard. also for the first time in ages, let's call it a normal market. futures up, dow futures up. 3800 spx all through the morning. three big figures on the vix, and you see it confirmed in the yield space, 1.11% on the 10 year yield. look for jonathan ferro to give wisdom on the yield in about 12 minutes. i have been hugely anticipating this because i want to talk about robinhood. so much misinformation. the weak presentation by robinhood management over the last number of days. barry ritholtz provides clarity not only on his podcast, but his writings and his notes to his client. barry, i love what you say about
who is robinhood's customers, and you make the distinction that everyone going long stop -- long gamestop and frantically trying to sell are not robinhood's customers. who is? barry: it is the people sending money to them paying for order flow, the people who actually generate robinhood's revenue line. we talked about this before, the difference between cheap and free. cheap is great because it means you are paying less and getting service. free raises all sorts of questions. the old joke is if it is free, then you are the product, not the customer. it is clear the robinhood traders were there for free trades, not understanding the platform, not understanding it is actually -- robinhood is a
counterpart to them. tom: you sound like arthur levin in the legendary work he did moving down to decimals. has anyone quantified what free is in terms of that order flow? what are we paying when we buy 100 shares of amazon this afternoon? barry: you have to look at who your broker is and how they make money. there have been a number of articles about schwab and schwab does not hide this fact. they are pretty transparent. they make money on the flow. if you're getting free trades at schwab and you have a pile of cash, they are cap -- they are capturing a little bit of flow. it is hard to do when rates are as low as they are, but that is their model. the way robinhood works is they are selling order flow. all of this is perfectly legal, perfectly legitimate.
it is disclosed on page 37 in the fine print. understand when you are not the direct client, when you are the user, it is a different relationship than a hedge and a prime broker, where they are paying for services and they can demand a certain level of service. when it is free, what can you demand? tom: i want to rip up the script. maybe this is your next bloomberg opinion essay. it is not only the names of the debate in the last week, it is the names not involved. i believe, we have not heard about schwab, we have not heard about fidelity, and maybe there other names you know better than me. what are the people we have not heard about doing or not doing that we see within this notoriety of robinhood? barry: first of all, if you're a traitor at fidelity or schwab or
vanguard, one of the things you do not have to worry about is a trade not being allowed because the brokerage does not have sufficient capital and cannot take a look -- take a risk. all of this chatter about aiken not believe who got rescued when they froze the purchases on the platform, nobody was getting rescued. that is just the regulations they have to follow. they did not have enough capital to allow tens of thousands of people to buy hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in gamestop, amc, whatever was shooting upwards. to robinhood's credit, a week ago they got a $1 billion line of credit from j.p. morgan and goldman sachs. this week they added another 2.4 billion in capital. they are becoming better capitalized, but it is clear they were unprepared to deal
with the surge of buying and the risk to their platform that these people do not make a payment or the stock collapses. everybody involved in the ownership change of an equity has risk that before settlement the stock collapses. tom: gamestop -- an elegant chart from early this morning. a set of lower highs as we move on. tell us about the remorse of the bid slipping away. all of us -- i have enjoyed this. you make a trade, you are brilliant, and all of the sudden the bid slips away. how do you counteract that? barry: there is a simple concept known as regret minimization that is a traitor investor has to be in the back of your mind. this was a bloomberg column i wrote in 2017 when bitcoin had blown up to 19,000, and
specifically, you have to look at this, not as is this going to go up or down, but if i do not sell and it goes down, how do i feel versus if i do sell and it keeps going up? it is not about maximizing your performance or generating the highest possible retirement -- the highest possible return. it is what am i going to do that i will not regret for the rest of life? if you're making a reasonable living, 50,000 or $100,000 a year and suddenly you are sitting on a $10 million or $20 million windfall, that is life-changing amount of money. that pays your mortgage, the retirement, the kids college. at some point you have to decide if i'm going to continue to have fun with this on the possibility goes where, or do you make a decision and ring the bell and make your life satisfaction that much better and make the lives of your family and children
better for the rest of the next three or four decades. tom: we are in that process right now. silver is a trend. gamestop ugly. barry ritholtz, i will get you back to where you stepped in to go long gamestop. mr. barry ritholtz, a brilliant thought on how to get out of painful trades. if you are long gamestop, it is painful. i have $128 on gamestop. it has been a very difficult road since 6:00 this morning. a path from $320 down to $128. much more this through the morning. i want to get back to alphabet, amazon, the real market. dow futures up 257. the vix, 27.40. all of this rounded up to
♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning, good morning. the countdown to the open starts right now. we have a bullish tuesday morning. futures up .9%. up 34 points on the s&p 500. let's get straight to it. last week's high flyers breaking down. >> remember there is a lot of leverage in the market call. >> it is not the same dynamics that has been so successful with gamestop. >> a game of musical chairs. >> the forces balance and balance out. >> the challenge of excess liquidity in the market. >> it will probably end in tears. jonathan: joining us our kailey leinz and abigail doolittle. kailey: