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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  January 27, 2021 1:00am-2:00am EST

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♪ >> we continue to do everything we can to minimize loss-of-life and suffering and what has been a very difficult stage, a very difficult crisis for our country. manus: the u.k. becomes the first nation in europe with 100,000 deaths from coronavirus.
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global cases passed 100 million. does jay powell still see light at the end of the tunnel? we look ahead to fed decision day. microsoft numbers beat the tree thanks to a stay workforce. a very good morning. welcome to daybreak europe. i'm manus cranny at our middle east headquarters. annmarie hordern is alongside me, back in her trusty seat. welcome to my home. we start the show with some pretty big numbers to try to get our heads around. not how many staircases they are. the number of vaccines in the united states of america. joe biden orders 200 million. this is about ramping up the attack on the virus. 100 million cases is where we are at the moment.
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the orders are up by 50%. it's about rolling it out to the states. that's a critical point. good morning. good to have you back in the seat. annmarie: thank you. loving the work from home set up. 10 out of 10. it's a bit more tragic, waking up in the united kingdom. we heard from boris johnson yesterday. the statistic is 100,000 deaths out of the united kingdom, the first nation in europe to surpass that very grim statistic. it's hard to wrap your head around it. 100,000 deaths. people's mothers, fallers, colleagues thomas -- colleagues, friends. it's five times worse. we have the vaccine rollout which is optimistic. of course, the grim part on the other side of that. manus: i think we will talk
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about this through the morning with our guests, the imf perspective on growth, stimulus, the risk factor. the new variant. does that stymie the reopening train? the alpha of stimulus is pretty tremendous. annmarie: definitely. nations scramble to vaccinate. concerns over supplies. eu regulators are proposing drugmaker flag exports of vaccines. >> i don't think it's a got idea -- good idea to even insinuate in a global supply type of network that exist right now that someone can bomb the exports of a vaccine like that. a lot of the materials are coming from other countries. if one starts bombing, what
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would be the response of the other? that would be a lose-lose situation rather than a situation that will help europe when. manus: the eu is looking to resolve its standoff with astrazeneca today which triggered these concerns about the deliveries. joining us now from brussels is maria tadeo. astrazeneca's ceo on damage control mode, doing that joint interview with the press. where do we stand right now? maria: that's right. it's very striking to see this happen on a day like today. there's a skull -- call scheduled between european representatives and the astrazeneca ceo. rather than waking up in europe -- she says we never diverted any vaccines away from europe, that is completely false. a very serious report that came
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out yesterday, suggesting the vaccine wasn't efficient. he says we need to stay calm. there's been a lot of allegations thrown around. they aren't necessarily true. he says community is very key. the contract, he says that we would make our best effort. perhaps that's the legal argument. he may not be able to deliver every dose. he's making the best effort for the company. it will be interesting to see whether that's good enough for the europeans. annmarie: how much of this is about nationalism when it comes to the vaccine rollout? maria: i think that this week for sure, the tone has changed in europe. they always said, this is not a race. it wasn't about getting there first. they now realize, it does matter to get this quickly. you do need to speed up the vaccination campaign. there's been a double whammy
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with pfizer and astrazeneca. the europeans are saying, we paid good money. when it comes to astrazeneca, they say, we need to see results. there's no excuse. we did pay this money. they say it's not about europe first, but making sure that the financial commitment that was made for europe is respected. it is triggering tensions over this, especially if we see flagging affects -- of exports. annmarie: thank you so much. maria tadeo in brussels. they may say it's actually not a race, we know that those who are coming in with the vaccines are able to get their economies back up and running. there's a guest in asia talking about the fact that in the developing world, it could take three years to reset herd immunity. six minutes after 6:00 in the city of london. quick check on where we trade
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this morning. asian equities, a mixed trade. the msci asia pacific and the read most of the session, turning around now. still green on your screen. s&p 500 futures are lower. the stand out in the future market is the nasdaq. the only ones that are up this morning. the dollar flagging. a little bit of dollar strength. we will talk about this changing trend for the dollar. is it time to sell at the richer levels? the dollar and focus today as it is fed day. manus: absolutely. microsoft boosting that tech trade last night. what does q. week due to the dollar? laura wright is in london alongside you with your first word news. laura: good morning. global coronavirus cases have topped 100 million. u.k. is now the first country in europe with over 100,000 deaths. fatalities are already five
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times the level the u.k.'s chief scientific advisor said would be a good outcome for britain. 3.7 million people in the u.k. have now tested positive. the european central bank is studying its differences in policy with the federal reserve on boosting the euro. policymakers are worried euro strength is distressing inflation. it could force the central bank to provide more stimulus. gamestop's rally accelerated yesterday. surging even more after a tweet from elon musk. the firm is worth over $10 billion, up 700% year to date. driven by red it's -- reddit fighting back against investors betting that the stock will drop. global news 24 hours a day on air and at bloomberg quicktake, powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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♪ manus: thank you very much. the world economic forum is looking different this year. this week's agenda will meet in a virtual platform. we bring you a piece of the action. don't miss today's exclusive interviews. annmarie: definitely warmer, i imagine. coming up, the imf downgrading the growth outlook for europe this year. the region's economies are following a familiar script of lacking international peers in recovering from a crisis. we get stocks of b.n.p. paribas. that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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that's aerotrainer.com. >> by the middle part of this
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year, we will get systems back to normal. the vaccination rollouts will continue. we will be able to accelerate our growth in the back half of the year. >> [inaudible] >> we have the tools but we will make covid like the flu. it will disturb neither our lives or the economy. >> the light at the end of the tunnel. a political cycle over with. the new administration. an intense focus on getting us through the crisis in terms of what's going on with the rollout of vaccines. >> we have enhanced treatment protocols that most of 2020, we didn't have. we have much more testing
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availability and rapid testing and more accurate testing. in most of 2020, we didn't. we have a much better understanding of the virus. manus: ceo's on the vaccine rollout. optimism on a return to normality or part of the devil's agenda at bloomberg's year ahead event. annmarie: europe's economy is starting to follow familiar scripts of lacking international peers when recovering from a crisis. that was the option -- upshot of the imf forecast. a generally poor performance compared to the china and u.s.. joining us this morning is sam linton brown -- lynton-brown. let's get your thoughts first on the imf projections. much stronger for europe but offsetting cuts in the euro area and u.k.. what do you make of these projections and how does it
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think how you change about 2021? sam: good morning. thank you for having me back on. i think it really ties in with covid. most of the news we've had in 2021 has been worse than expected. on two fronts primarily, the first mutated strains having a worst impact than initially anticipated, and the second is on the course -- is of course logistical difficulties with vaccine rollout. this has been the key driver in many respects of the market price dynamics year to date. what it means, which the imf forecasts are touching on, is that the perceived light at the end of the tunnel when the global economy is able to gradually reopen is getting pushed back. it's pushing back recovery expectations. it has been good for the dollar and bad for higher currencies. particularly those across emerging markets. this is what has already happened. this is what the market has
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already priced in. going forward, the news flow will become more balanced. it could even improve. we feel this repricing is in its latter stages. it presents an opportunity to resell the dollar at richer levels. long cable, short dollar-yen at the moment. manus: good morning to you. let's stick with the european focus for the moment. yesterday's news flow was an implosion of confidence around astra. what you are doing is casting the narrative forward. we say -- you say we should be more bullish on the euro. that's a number of factors at play. what is the primary one? the rollout of the vaccine? perhaps another v, the quicker recovery then we are currently pricing. sam: good morning. thank you for the question. we are bullish on euro-dollar. we expect it to get up to 125 this year.
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that expectation and spite of what you put forward and what we agreed with. a very gloomy economic outlook for europe. the current covid situation is dire. the market is in the process of downgrading growth expectations as a result of that. given that the vaccine rollout has proved slow so far, that light at the end of the tunnel i referred to is also getting pushed back. the key question is, can euro-dollar rally against the backdrop where the economy in europe is weak? we think the answer is yes. the key is that the dollar is on a weakening trend. the fed is going to be a lot more important for the path for euro-dollar than the european economic outlook. which we would argue in many respects is not really a key driver of euro-dollar in the current market. annmarie: maybe this is a bit
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short term. deutsche bank overnight is saying that the u.k.'s potential plan to quarantine those travelers that were abroad is actually positive for the pound. would you agree? sam: the theme that the pound is likely to look better than many of its comparable core currencies as a result of the vaccine situation. that's when we ascribe to. of course, the current covid situation is very bad. as you alluded to in your opening comments, the tragedy is unfathomable. when we look at the vaccine deployment specifics, they are encouraging. the top-down is about equity rotation. this is the fact that the pound was one of the main covid underperformers because in part,
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it's equity sector [inaudible] vaccine deployment at a global level, to the extent it sees those equity sectors unwind part of that underperformance, should be bullish sterling. vaccine deployment is also bullish from a bottom-up perspective. the u.k. is rolling out its vaccine much faster than its developed market peers. this implies that restrictions will end sooner. it will reduce pressure on the bank of england to cut rates once restrictions and. given what is currently priced in the market, the unwinding of expectations should be bullish. aside from the weaker dollar backdrop, there's idiosyncratic reasons to be positive on the pound. cable can train -- trade sustainably nearer to 150.
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manus: some pretty big calls. not in my favor at the moment. good news for those at home. sam lynton-brown. stay with us. annmarie is happy now. coming up, jay powell saw the light at the end of the tunnel. that was just before christmas. is the light still flickering? how aggressive is the u.s. economy? is it expected to falter anytime soon? this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving,
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manus: daybreak europe from
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dubai and london. it's here. jay powell is expected to push back on the possibility of bond tapering anytime soon. the central bank is expected to maintain its aggressive support of the u.s. economy despite the chair singing he saw light at the end of the tunnel before christmas. sam lynton-brown. he is still with us. if we take our minds back to last june, a moment when jay powell said we are not thinking about thinking about thinking about raising rates. we are in january 20 20, 6 .5% growth is expected from the imf this year in the u.s.. could that be enough to shift the tilt of thinking? sam: we do not think it will be
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enough to shift the tilt of thinking. we think there will be no changes in the statement today. and powell's press conference, very dovish. what does that mean? exactly what you just said. they are not even thinking about thinking about tapering. when they begin to think about thinking about it, they will give plenty of advance warning. this is super important in the context of the strong growth backdrop driven by rising fiscal stimulus expectations. which you just alluded to. what it means is that the traditional transmission mechanism through which more fiscal or better growth in the u.s. relative to the rest of the world translates into a stronger dollar, i.e. rising front-end nominal yields or rising real yields further out the curve, are not at play. the market will not price rate hikes anytime soon.
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we think it's right not to do so. the market will say it's going to be constrained in the degree to which the longer end of the curve can selloff. if it does selloff, we think it will be primarily driven by breakevens rather than real yields rising. this is really key for the parish dollar view. annmarie: what's the kind of tone jay powell needs to have today? 2013 was the first time he was full-time on the fed governors board. he urged for that tapering. does the memory of the taper tantrum of 2013 loom large in his mind? sam: definitely. i think that's why, combined with the fact that the fed now has a different strategic framework with its flexible average inflation targeting policy, will inform the messaging which will be super dovish.
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the 20 experiences very much and impotent to that. the framework of the fred is different today. it is far too soon for us to be expecting any incrementally more hawkish shift from powell today. if anything, he will likely try to go above and beyond the dovish messaging that we heard from him just over a week ago. annmarie: of course, 2020, he was pointing the finger at capitol hill. we need more fiscal stimulus. do you expect him to embrace this new plan from the biden ministration of $1.9 trillion? sam: as always, powell will be cautious and commenting on the ongoing fiscal discussions. they don't want to be influencing elected politicians
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whilst they are appointed official powell will certainly be cognizant of that. i don't think it would be surprising if he were to repeat his previous sentiment on the importance of further fiscal support for the u.s. economy. the key though is the symmetry of the fed here. in an environment where more fiscal is delivered, u.s. growth is good. what the fed is telling us, what they need to convince the market, is policy accommodation will not be on wayland. -- unwound. we will let inflation stay there. when the economy isn't growing is where, they need to do more. we heard that from powell in december when they committed to a minimum run rate of the current purchases. that doesn't mean that in a more negative u.s. growth backdrop, easing couldn't be increased.
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annmarie: christine lagarde. we had an exclusive story yesterday that the ecb is studying fed policy and what it means for euro strength. do you see a threat from the ecb, that they are going to have to say they will cut rates or do something? is this something that they need to study but there's not much they can do? sam: unfortunately for the ecb, we think there's not much they can do to combat a stronger euro amid a weaker dollar backdrop. i believe the market will have the same interpretation and it will see this reported study as all talk but no action. the bottom line is that, absent cutting the deposit rate further, there's very little he can do to impact the currency. it highlights an important theme that is important for global markets.
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annmarie: we have to leave it there. thank you for joining us this morning. sam lynton-brown. we will be back in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> we did everything we could and continue to do everything that we can to minimize loss-of-life and suffering and what has been a very difficult stage, the difficult crisis for our country. annmarie: the u.k. becomes the first nation in europe with 100,000 deaths from the coronavirus. global cases past 100 million.
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this jay powell still see light at the end of the tunnel? we look ahead to the fed decision day. i kristof numbers beat the street thanks to stay-at-home workers. very good morning to you from bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london. manus cranny, live from dubai. this is daybreak europe. very good morning to you. you've been laser focused on what we heard out of the states in terms of the ramp-up of the vaccine. you are seeing a lot of the vaccine production really come to life in the middle east. here in the u.k., it was quite tragic last night the number that we got. 100,000 deaths in the united kingdom. almost exactly a year since the u.k. really started to brace the impact of covid when they first had 83 british it -- british passengers. it's the first country in europe to pass that grim statistic.
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manus: yeah. you are right. i am sitting in one country where the ramp-up and rollout of vaccines has been delivered at a frenetic page -- pays. if we look to the u.s., biden is setting the agenda. he's ordering 200 million doses. what does this mean? you are seeing almost arise of 50% in the number of vaccines available. how much more can you get out of the individual states? this is a critical issue. it's about delivery. 100 million vaccines in 100 days is not a huge milestone for them. it's about what pace you can get up to after that. it is about rolling out the vaccines and pace. that new variant is one of the key risk variables. annmarie: it certainly is. in the united states, i will say, my parents in new york were
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able to get their hands on a vaccine this week which brought tremendous amounts of relief to me. we know nations are scrambling to vaccinate. we have concerns oversupply. after a sluggish rollout, eu regulators are proposing drugmaker flagged exports of vaccines, sparking concerns over protectionist measures. >> i don't think it's a good idea even to insinuate in a global supply type of network that exists right now that someone can bomb the exports for a vaccine like that. a lot of their own materials are needed to produce the vaccine and are coming from other countries. what will be the response of the other? that will be a lose-lose situation rather than a situation that will help europe win. manus: the eu is looking to resolve its standoff with astrazeneca today which
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triggered these concerns about delivery. officials representing the national government of the european commission will demand that the company meet its vaccine commitments. that's the context of vaccines. quick snapshot of what's going on with markets. 83 days since the last fed meeting. flat on asian equities. s&p coming back. microsoft up 17% after trade, delivering on the cloud platform. the dollar back to flat at the moment. well tonight's fed meeting be a zero-sum squid? i'm not sure what other cliches we can pick up on that. will the tone be different? good morning. annmarie: that is certainly front and center. i want to turn to russian now. protests are opting nationwide over the detention of the opposition leader. the rising tensions come at a
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time when the country is grappling with covid-19, weak economic outlook, and simmering political risk. our next guest is alexey mordashov. very good morning to you. thank you for joining us. i want to begin with a phone call that took place yesterday with president biden and president putin. the kremlin described it as frank. concerns that the u.s. side was hacking. russia placing bounties on u.s. soldiers in afghanistan. the poisoning and detention of the opposition leader. do you expect more sanctions from this new administration? alexey: good morning. [inaudible] i wouldn't like to speculate about the future. we don't know what will be
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coming from this administration. i'm a businessman. i should do my best [inaudible] i don't know. [inaudible] politics nowadays is full of surprises. [inaudible] manus: good morning to you. there's no doubt about it. geopolitics is going to impact your business. i want to get a sense from u.s. you prepare for 2021. what is the biggest threat for the business? tariffs or covid? alexey: covid has a much more overwhelming impact on our business. in my portfolio, from tourism and online to indications, [inaudible]
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some businesses are in very big trouble. some are doing quite well like steel so far. some businesses have a few opportunities like online education or online grocery. i believe now is the time to come back to fundamentals. be more focused on customer interest, embrace new technologies and develop the culture. the key message of our people -- [inaudible] annmarie: we know that the u.s. has imposed tariffs on russian steel. we know that the european union is also weighing this. there's no decision yet.
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what is your plan of action if the eu was to enact higher tariffs on your steel? alexey: [inaudible] it's extremely important to keep freedom of economic decisions and keeping operate. what you mentioned is a trend of isolation and protectionism which is a disadvantage for economic recovery in the world. [inaudible] our company will do our best to participate in the investigation. we've done everything in line with international law. european markets -- prices are rising. [inaudible]
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market is very good for steel producers in europe now. [inaudible] it's important to keep freedom. manus: we appreciate that you have told annmarie and i that the political state is beyond your expertise. let's pull it back to an area of your expertise. tariffs are a challenge for your business. at least give us some indication as to whether you hold any optimism that the sanctions narrative from the united states could change under the biden administration. are you at least hopeful that there might be progress, globally, on tariffs from biden? alexey: first of all, i don't
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know. we all know that politicians could be -- everybody could bring surprises. it's not up to me to do this situation. from the messages which we hear from the new administration, i hold hope that the new administration will be more respectful to international trade laws, freedom of economic movement, the normalization of economic relationships between different countries. we strongly wish this for the united states. i would not rely much on hope. hope is not our strategy. manus: [laughter] annmarie: i wanted to ask you about travel. you have a good grip on what's
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going on. global travel has been decimated due to covid-19. what are you seeing in terms of when we could see a pickup? alexey: very good question. you made a very good point. tourism is extremely depressed globally because of the current situation. tourism is in big trouble. i hope that the vaccines will help, thanks to moderna. [inaudible]
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manus: ok. you have many businesses. thank elon musk of russia. annmarie: jeff bezos. manus: the world is going green. jeff bezos. i'm sorry. don't be upset. you are jeff to me. you are the fourth wealthiest man in russia. where is the future? where is the biggest opportunity? the world is green. the world has a mental status which is esg and green. what business will you invest in that is green and can grow? alexey: [inaudible] we understand new changes. we do our best to enter a cease
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-- embrace these trends. we didn't have to pay attention to environment protections. [inaudible] it's very obvious. [inaudible] we took a commitment to reduce our greenhouse emissions by 3% by 2023. it's just the first step for development of our green program. business can be green. tourism you mentioned could be green. all businesses become green. all businesses will be aligned with this trend. manus: ok. everything could be green. it's just a question of qualifying that. the next time you come back on the rich list, i will promote you again. don't worry. you are right. thank you for joining us. that's alexey mordashov.
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thank you for being with us this morning. it is the world economic forum. it will look a little bit different this year. i'm broadcasting from home. even global leaders have to go virtual. bloomberg brings you that news flow and a piece of the action. don't miss today's exclusive interviews. the dutch central bank governor at 9:00 in london. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> europe invested billions to help develop the world's first covid-19 vaccine. to create a truly global common good. and now the companies must deliver. they must honor their obligation. >> china will continue to share
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its experience with other countries, do its best to assist companies -- countries and regions that were less prepared for the pandemic. >> some countries have gone beyond and acquired up to four times what their population needs. that was aimed at holding this back. >> we won't give support to any country if you are giving away vaccines and the most vulnerable are not vaccinated. >> this is going to be a very arduous road, an uphill battle, much more difficult than many think. annmarie: global leaders discussing the covid-19 pandemic at this year's virtual world economic forum. everything this year and last year going virtual. pfizer says vaccine nationalism is a lose-lose game. the ceo told bloomberg, it's too soon to suggest that europe is behind in the distribution of vaccines. he said that the drugmaker would get more doses to the eu before the end of the second quarter.
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>> political leaders tried to do the best for their citizens. it's a very difficult situation. if i create a lot of tension, the voices are getting louder, sometimes suggestions are on the table. don't get a good idea to insinuate in a global supply type of network that exists right now that someone can bump the exports of a vaccine like that. a lot of their own materials that are needed to produce vaccine are coming from other countries. if one starts bouncing, what will be the response of the other? that would be a lose-lose situation rather than a situation that will help europe win. we are doing this very collaboratively, both with the european commission and state members. trying to increase dramatically our manufacturing capacity.
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right now, from 1.3 billion doses, we will be able to produce more than 2 billion doses this year. as a result, we have made agreements with the european commission that we will provide them 200 additional -- 200 million additional doses, starting in the second quarter. that's the promise that we gave them. i think we are well in line to achieve it. i understand the concerns. i understand what everybody wants something that can open the economy and save lives. i recommend a little bit of patience so that we will be able to do our job and provide as
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much product available to everyone. >> fears of taking the vaccine. what are you doing to combat those? is that a job for government? >> no. it's a job for everyone. it's a job for u.s. a journalist. it's a job for the government. it's a job for every scientist. it's the job for us. those that have fears, and understand them. they need to think that when it comes to vaccines, the decision to take it or not will not affect only their own lives. they will affect the lives of others. most likely, it will affect the lives of people that they love the most, the people that they socialize the most with. if you don't take the vaccine, you are becoming the weekly -- weak link that allows the virus to survive. think wisely before you make such a decision. don't let fear get in the way.
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manus: that was the pfizer ceo speaking to bloomberg. i have his vaccine in my arm. waiting for dose number two. i'm all faxed up. coming up, just this story. another 41% aftermarket trading. we discussed. the army of reddit posters who are taking on the hedge fund tightens. this could get spicy. this is bloomberg. ♪
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annmarie: good morning. the skyward march in gain -- gamestop continues to accelerate. stocks nearly doubled during
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exchange hours and rallied another 40% in after-hours trading. the battle has turned into one of reddit day traders versus hedge fund heavyweights. joining us now is dani burger. how much of a headache is this causing the hedge funds of the world? dani: obsessed is an understatement. this is really causing some issues for these hedge funds. specifically ones like melvin capital who doubled down on their bet against gamestop and had a new cash injection. that's because this narrative has emerged on reddit that basically says, we are taking on hedge funds, we are the white knights coming into these hedge funds that have, onto the financial news channels and on what they say they are doing. when you look at hedge fund positioning, they have been taking off. melvin capital is in a lot of
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pain. hedge fund shorts in general rallied 15% over the past two days. that's their best session since 2012. we see evidence that they are starting to have to unwind their longs in order to pay for the pain they are seeing in these other short positions that are getting absolutely crushed. now it's almost become this risk that if you are publicly coming out as a hedge fund and disclosing the stocks that you are against, as one twitter user put it, you are at risk of getting melvined. this army could come after you. this is truly a new and unique risk for hedge fund managers. manus: the one thing that we haven't really quantified yet is counterparty risk. this is where grey swans are built. nobody knows who is holding the cards. i believe that out there with
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you. michael murray had a thing to say. unnatural, insane, dangerous. that's where we are. dani: that tweet is interesting. a year ago, michael murray was touting gamestop as a long position that he held. it's unclear if he still has it. interesting that he has come out against this. he would have benefited a lot from this rally. is this where we are? should there be regulatory repercussions? this is extreme gray area. there is case law that looks at these points to see whether it is legal or not. who's to say what is legitimate? it is so tough to stay -- say at this time. manus: ok. i will leave this with both of you. regulate the little guy on wall street against -- on main street
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versus wall street. that's it from home. they will let me back to school tomorrow. annmarie: i can't wait for that. back tomorrow. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ matt: good -- anna: good morning. i'm anna edwards, live in london alongside matt miller in berlin. matt: good morning. the market say the risks are mixed. european stocks point to a negative open amid earnings. a fed meeting as well. the cash trade is less than an hour away. the reddit rally. gamestop's value surges past $10

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