tv Bloomberg Surveillance Bloomberg January 21, 2021 7:00am-8:01am EST
>> there's a possibility that the first time there is more people falling back into operative -- poverty. >> all be signs of a bull market arm play here. >> it is going to be enormous spending in this country. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, this is "bloomberg surveillance" live. alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz i'm jonathan ferro. joe biden beginning his first full day as president of the united states. tom: it is not only record
highs, they did it without higher interest rates. it is a really telling idea. i know lisa will dive into all of that. it is not that stocks went up yesterday it is the way they went up that was important. jonathan: lisa will run us through the events we need to keep our eye on. tom keene, the event i have my eye on, 11:00 a.m. eastern time a boat tied -- bow tied tom keene goes down for his first vaccination. tom: i've had to wait because i'm so young. we are going to get out front and get the vaccine. it is an important idea that worldwide the urgency is there. you heard from dr. fauci yesterday. with the release this morning, in germany, record deaths. mexico with record deaths
yesterday. everybody has to get out and do it. jonathan: certainly a lot to do on the vaccination front. we could talk to that -- about that a little bit later. the focus on europe in 45 minutes. lisa: ecb and rate decisions followed by christine lagarde's press conference. it will be interesting to see how the ecb could overwhelm a market that has been overwhelmed with stimulus. 8:30 a.m., what joe biden is walking into with an economy that is whittled with joblessness. we will be getting an initial jobless claims, which are expected to increase week over week to 5.3 million individuals. 2:00 p.m., not only after tom keene will have got his shot after putting on his short code that is -- sport coat, joe biden will be delivering marks on the covid plan. how he plans to get 100 million
okta met -- inoculations out in the first 100 days. they deliver, there are a number of flaws in the distribution networks. as we find out more information that becomes that much more daunting. jonathan: the administration wrapping up that effort in washington. executive orders coming through. the new policies coming through as well. we will catch up with emily wilkins in about 15 minutes. also live on this program, let's get some price action this thursday morning. record high on the nasdaq, record high on the s&p. all-time highs on global equities. s&p 500 up 12 points. treasuries are not really part of the move. the yields are up by half a basis point.
what is part of the move this morning is fx, foreign-exchange, dollar weaker against the bulk of g10. that dollar weakness is still there. tom: i would also point out, eurosterling you call that out yesterday as well. you really think eurosterling across a channel in the north sea is a back -- vaccine trade? jonathan: at the moment. what we have seen in the rest of europe is just removed the possibility of the small possibility beget negative interest rates out of the bank of england. that is so much better than what we have seen in germany. germany is shooting for 300,000 vaccinations a day. yesterday in the u.k. they were running north of 300,000 a day. the u.k. is hitting its targets.
germany is nowhere near it. angela merkel came out and said they would like to hit every single german with the vaccine by september. they will struggle to get there. tom: i checked my fancy iphone medical app here to see if my appointment was canceled because there are serious issues in new york city as well. jonathan: still to come on this program, we still have julian emanuel from btig. i will ask the question of you, do evaluations matter here? >> they do. when you answer that question no, that is where we run into trouble. we think it is a very legitimate
brick that is continuing to fuel the mood higher. there is still some buying power out there. particularly on the part of the investing public who is really very deeply in love with short call options. tom: what is the character in the nature of the flows right now? what is the distinction you see? julian: i never thought i would expect to save myself say this after several decades in the business. it really is this call buying frenzy. you saw the move yesterday in one of the faang names. incremental stock buying that is moving everything higher. yesterday was a function of the general sense of relief. i think you made a very important point that yields did move higher.
that is a sign that we have seen a number of weeks, really a number of months of money shifting away from the u.s. will that be continued? hard to say. lisa: on the periphery you have the marginal buyers, the call buyers. are you talking about robinhood? the retail investor? julian: it is. very much has been since shortly after the election. if you look at cash on the part of the institutions, he remains relatively low. people came into the new year rather fully invested. we are in this same situation. you see it by virtue of the last couple of days. they are playing catch up to value trade. there is this intense desire to participate in stocks and to
speculate again. something we had not seen the last time the public was this enthused. that was in 1999 and 2000. tom: this is not a political point. forgive me if you think it is a political point. yesterday evening i put on that briefing with the white house. i turned it off and felt like i missed nothing. i know a lot of people get put into those video reels of the toned down in washington. that is clearly going to shift. what does that mean for the short-term? julian: it means we are uncomfortably more reliance on the course of policy then we have been again perhaps in years. that goes back to the original question.
it really is an element of something that has to go right. there is a lot of belief filled in that it -- built in that it may not be 1.9 trillion dollars but sorely north of $1 trillion. they will figure out a way to get 100 million shots into people's arms in the first 100 days. those are very difficult and policy will have a lot to do with whether those are successes in the first 100 days. tom: this market has to be underpinned by a vector of earnings growth. could you frame good earnings numbers and attempted share buybacks and dividend increases to support the markets? julian: you can. you look at the projection for this year. it is north of 20%. if you have a reasonably smooth
economic reopening you will get that. could you overshoot in terms of earnings? absolutely. there is this pent-up desire to go out and spend. that could drive earnings. you will get dividend increases. you will get increased buybacks. you think about the financials, that is part of the narrative of the strength of the last couple months. we think broadly that entire team will support the market higher towards the rest of the year. jonathan: great to catch up. i haven't been here for a while, happy new year as well. tom: he was on four times when you are in capri. lisa: you are asking to be brought up with the sabbatical. you are giving tom in opening. jonathan: i just don't care. tom: well rested.
jonathan: record highs. quickly before we have to run, we focus on policy with emily wilkins in washington, d.c. senator romney pushing back against the $1.9 trillion plan. senator manchin has already made his point on the democrat side that he does not think what he is hearing has targeted enough. i wonder how that comes together in the coming days and weeks. tom: they have a conversation. this goes back to the 5:00 a.m. presentations bloomberg news is receiving from the biden administration. the process here will be traditional. they will have a conversation. they will have lunch. senator romney will take a beverage or dinner with the president and they will figure it out. that is part of the shock.
jonathan: policymaking might be boring down in washington dc again. lisa: that we could talk about some of the real issues. how do you bridge the gap between enthusiasm of stocks and the reality of the economy? jonathan: good morning to you all for our audience worldwide alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. this is bloomberg. karina: president biden plans to issue a set of executive orders and fighting the coronavirus. they will reverse some of donald trump's most criticized policies. he were overhaul and unify the approach to virus testing and stabilize the supply chain for critical medical supplies. it will increase the government's ability to provide rapid tests and vaccinations.
infectious diseases cheap anthony fauci pledges his commitment to the agency today on a video link. the u.s. will join kovacs, the multinational effort seeking to deploy coronavirus vaccines around the world. donald trump has said the united states would leave the who peer the u.k. suffers its worst day at the pandemic. 1800 deaths reported in the 24 hour period. boris johnson warned some hospitals look like war zones. almost 40,000 coronavirus patients are being treated in british hospitals. avril haines will be the first woman to oversee american spine. the 84-year-old -- the 84-10 vote came after the president was sworn in. she will oversee 18 intelligence agencies. united is mapping out a recovery plan from last year's losses. united says this year will serve
as a transition after the collapse in travel. united says it is more than halfway to $2 billion in cost cuts. global news 24 hours a day on air and on bloombergquint take. i'm karina mitchell, this is bloomberg. ♪ so you're a small business, or a big one. you were thriving, but then... oh. ah. okay. plan, pivot. how do you bounce back? you don't, you bounce forward, with serious and reliable internet. powered by the largest gig speed network in america. but is it secure? sure it's secure. and even if the power goes down, your connection doesn't. so how do i do this? you don't do this. we do this, together. bounce forward, with comcast business. (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design
been tested and we have come out stronger for it. we will repair our alliances. to retrieve and the competing factions we must end this uncivil war that hits red against blue, rural versus urban , conservative versus liberal. we could do this. this is america's day. this is democracies day. jonathan: joe biden sworn in as the 46th president of the united states. good morning during for our audience worldwide alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, i'm jonathan ferro. ecb rate decision just around the corner. equity futures up another 10. we are up one third of 1%. record high on the nasdaq. record high of the small caps on the russell. going into that ecb decision, many people don't expect a change but we will look ahead to
the news conference 45 minutes ahead of that. the dollar is weaker. against g10 it is a weaker dollar story. tom: i wonder if christine lagarde will answer on bitcoin. 31,000. you wonder, will she mention that after the comments last week. jonathan: if you are near the end and everybody has already asked the question, i would have down the page may be a question on bitcoin. tom: the way it is breaking down , they were on fire this morning agreeing with lagarde on the criminal intent. emily wilkins will join us now. our bloomberg government reporter. i just got in the morning schedule for the biden group.
it is such a throwback to five years ago. they talk about the president, first lady, vice president, and the second gentleman. i guess we have coined a new phrase. jonathan ferro is the star of the show and i am the second gentleman on surveillance. it is a whole new world, isn't it? emily: we have a world with a second gentleman. i think we will see a world with a first gentleman. tom: there it is. the language change. what will you look for today? emily: biden will be signing another batch of executive orders on covid-19. that is what his administration had said they would focus on. we are looking at several different executive orders here including one that would require people to where face masks. one of the executive orders is
challenging americans to wear masks for the first 100 days of the presidency. jonathan: some of these guidelines that have been unveiled already exist. these policies, how much do they actually back up what already exists and how effective will they be? emily: some of these policies do backup what will -- what we are seeing. trump largely left it to states, businesses, local officials to say these are the rules and we want you to follow them. with the biden administration we are seeing more of the federal focus where biden is saying i'm president and i'm setting the tone. even things like yesterday we saw him wearing a mask. that is not an image we saw with trump. lisa: one has the biggest surprise been for the wind administration doing an assessment of the vaccination rollout plan and ascertaining whether it is feasible to achieve that 100 million doses
of vaccine in the first 100 days goal joe biden has laid out? emily: administrative official told reporters they are concerned about what they are currently seeing as far as what the white house is planning, what is the infrastructure? there is that new strain of the virus that has come over from the u.k.. that is something they are concerned about. all things they are keeping in mind as they tried to come forward with the plan for how to handle the pandemic and achieve their goal of having 100 million vaccinations in biden's first 100 days. tom: what does the senate trial intrude? we not know? or is it out there weeks? emily: we have been asking nancy pelosi that question. it is up to her. it is up to nancy pelosi to figure out when she sends them over. there is the question of how long this is going to last. republicans and democrats alike feel like they have a bunch of stuff they need to get through.
they don't want to spend a long time on this trial. we are seeing reporting saying it could be as short as three days. the last time it was more like three weeks. jonathan: i could tell you for this market the focus on whether that trial disrupts the stimulus effort. senator romney pushing back yesterday. how much will that complicate the effort? emily: the biden administration once the stimulus effort to be bipartisan. they need at least 17 republican senators to go ahead and support it. moderates like romney, lisa murkowski, senators who have already come out against the plan were seen as key votes for the biden ministration to get. what you are going to be seeing now is more discussion, more negotiation figuring out what people are and are not comfortable with. the big thing you hear with these republicans is this would be a $1.9 trillion spending bill when congress just passed a $900 billion spending bill. there are concerns with what
that is doing to the debt and deficit. what that means for the economic recovery. lisa: are there any trump republicans left in senate in-house? emily: there are still ardent defenders of trump in both of those chambers. there are a number of politicians who still see his face out there. they see all these people -- his message resounded in them. they were huge supporters. a number of them see their job as they continue to cater to those supporters. to kind of bring their will to the capitol building. jonathan: emily wilkins in washington, d.c., we appreciate your effort over the last four years in the last 24 hours. tom, many ways to debate around stimulus hasn't changed. is it a door stimulus? with the economy still shocked of many places, should we be thinking about stimulus yet? if you have a job, should you be
receiving a check from the federal government? if you are and 75,000 dollars, should you be receiving a check? where will that check go? we saw what happened with the savings rate last year. some of that money will just go straight back into savings. of course it should be targeting the people who are struggling to pay bills. tom: you provided great leadership on this. while you are away, the fact that lisa and i continued to drive this conversation forward. the answer is america. it is radically different. what we heard from chancellor merkel today in germany and others across europe. a new president and a president from this generation is not going to change that. jonathan: the conversation continues this morning right here on "bloomberg surveillance ."
alongside lisa abramowicz and tom keene, i'm jonathan ferro. in around 20 minutes time we will have an ecb rate decision. 45 minutes after that we will have a news conference in frankfurt, germany with president christine lagarde. equity futures up another 10 on the s&p 500. equity at an all-time high in th (announcer) do you want to reduce stress? shed pounds? do you want to flatten your stomach? do all that and more in just 10 minutes a day with aerotrainer, the total body fitness solution that uses its revolutionary ergonomic design to help you to maintain comfortable, correct form. that means better results in less time. you can do an uncomfortable, old-fashioned crunch or an aerotrainer super crunch. turn regular planks into turbo planks without getting down on the floor. and there are over 20 exercises to choose from. incredible for improving flexibility and perfect for enhancing yoga and pilates.
jonathan: waking up to record highs. we got used to that in the last several years. we have it again. here's a taste of the price action. good morning. equities up 11 on the s&p 500, a record. a record on the nasdaq and the russell. ecb, 15 minutes away. foreign-exchange, the euro showing strength. across the board, dollar weakness. the strength is on the other side. sterling up.
that is the cross asset price action in the u.s. and worldwide. romaine bostick, your thoughts on the move. romain: you talk about some of the biggest volume movers. united reported a loss for the quarter, worse than expected. full-year, $27.57. more importantly, the company trying to get investors attention after 2023 when they feel like they can get back to pre-covid financial levels. paypal, upgrading stock. crypto going to pay off. tom: come on. romaine: i don't know if you have been keeping tabs. tom: where are you one bitcoin?
we know how ferro and lisa feels. help me here. is it for real? romaine: it is down on the day but some say that is the entry point for you, tom. [laughter] you have to be in it to win it. tom: please. romaine: pr headsets. tom: killed it. lisa: [laughter] romaine: basically a precursor to something more advanced. viewers and listeners can take part. flip up the board. i was looking at this. remember the bellwether stocks? you remember, tom. it used to be synonymous with the start of earnings season. people still pay attention. they came out with earnings. they were better with guidance going forward.
i will not bore you. ibm going to report after the bell tonight. three months away from the one-year anniversary. intel, the new ceo has not taken over yet. still a month. manufacturing strategy, tom. tom: i cannot concentrate. where is your bowtie? romaine: can we have two bowties on the same show? where is ferro? tom: capri? key west? who knows. jonathan: can i weigh in on bitcoin? i have to say my piece. tom: please. jonathan: the reason i don't talk about bitcoin is i don't know enough about it. i don't understand the risk tolerance, why it moves on a
given day. the more important point, i found a lot of people in our industry use cryptocurrency as a way to attract a bigger audience and contribute to volatility. i think that is a mistake. if you are going to cover something like bitcoin, you need to do it with responsibility. i don't see responsible coverage of this asset class. i do not want to contribute anything negative around it. lisa: one thing i want to say is blackrock came out and allowed two funds to invest in bitcoin. there is increasing institutional presence. it raises the question of how much money could be at stake, whether it is pensions, individuals, etc. and that may be part of the issue.
romaine: when we talk about paypal, microstrategy you have to pay attention more because now it becomes a fundamental driver for companies no matter how speculative it is. tom: smart. thank you. greatly appreciate it. announcements come out and you go, that is brilliant! that is what i felt when i heard the move to lafayette college. talk about a career change. moving from the credit pundit to the management at oppenheimer funds and onto investo. all of a sudden, $870 million endowment per student, krishna moni has a career change. wonderful to have you with us.
what has been the biggest surprise of dealing with the finance, investment and politics of endowment investment? >> there isn't much politics at the endowment. it is straightforward. we invest for the benefit of the college. investment committee has been supportive and cooperative. the biggest challenge for the endowment, not just lafayette college but everywhere, is how are you going to generate high returns in a low interest-rate environment for the next 10-30 years? tom: are you using equity and dividend growth as a yield equivalent to meet your actual assumption? krishna: the way we invest is more on a total return basis
rather than on a yield basis. that is where most of the endowment grows today. equities play a large part in any portfolio looking for long-term returns. the private markets play a significant role as well. that has been my biggest learning. i will focus on public markets. private markets are huge. jonathan: build on that. how difficult has the adjustment been from purely public to private? krishna: investing is investing. the principles of investing remain the same. the change is when you invest in a private security, you are committing for a long time. public security, mutual fund, you don't like it, you can withdraw your money tomorrow. you are stuck with it for 10 years -- that is the
characteristic of the private market, you are locked in for 10 years. you have to think real hard before you commit money. lisa: right now, given where markets are, would you take liquidity or credit risk? krishna: normally, credit risk would be good. problem is spreads are tighter and overall, interest rates are relatively low. the returns you can get out of credit assets are really low, historically low. we go into private markets not because we want to. who wants to take liquidity? when you don't have enough returns from other places, you have to go everywhere you can harvest risk premium. private markets still provide decent returns. jonathan: that is the problem.
we will get an ecb rate decision and seven minutes time. we will hear from christine lagarde. last time we heard from them, they extended pandemic emergency purchase program to march '22. in '23, they will still be reinvesting bonds they bought, even if they stop additional purchases. what did we learn in the last 14 hours? ecb targeting credit spreads according to reporting in frankfurt. anyway, these central banks, long after the pandemic passes, will be sitting on massive balance sheets, reinvesting bonds. that presence in this market will go right the way through this recovery. tom: how do you invest long-term, endowment perspective, 20 years, given central-bank intrusion john describes? krishna: the central banks are doing what they need to do which
is to revive the economy. the pandemic caused them to lean more than they would have otherwise but they have been a force in the markets for some time. that is because of the structural, secular reasons for lower productivity and growth. that is nothing new. that has been with us a long time. that is a central thesis. the question john was raising is interesting. unless things change on a global basis dramatically, that is, trend growth rate and developed markets increases meaningfully, central banks will be with us forever. pandemic got us there faster. we would have gotten there without a pandemic. jonathan: krishna, great to catch up. come back soon. always enjoy the conversation.
critical, we realize the major difference between now and the beginning of this recovery and 10 years ago coming out of the crisis. coming out of the crisis, people believed rates would go higher. they believed yields would climb. in europe, if you ask someone now, through the next recovery, the next decade, can europe engineer a recovery that leads to higher policy rates for the ecb, yes or no? i guarantee the majority would say no. think about that. rates not going anywhere. tom: sounds like japan -- i will take your point. participants looking for higher rates, sort of the major house economic financial strategists really pushing against that agree it will be a sustained low rate for many years to come. jonathan: we will talk about it
in a couple minutes with that ecb rate decision. good morning. equities adding a little more weight to the s&p 500. record highs across the board. this is bloomberg. ♪ >> in his first full day in office, president biden taking aim coronavirus, rapidly reversing many of donald trump's most criticized policies. the president will use executive orders to stabilize the supply chain for critical supplies and improve the government's ability to provide fair vaccine distribution. moderate republicans in the senate appears skeptical toward the stimulus package. mitt romney and lisa murkowski
indicated it is too soon since the last stimulus bill to consider another one. the president would need the support of both lawmakers to get the measure passed. donald trump's second impeachment trial is still on hold. nancy pelosi has not triggered a proceeding that could slow down the new democratic majority and delay confirmation of key biden administration officials. it is up to her when she will formally transmit the article to the senate. it is a renters market in london. houses in the most expensive areas are sitting empty. it is the longest waiting period since the financial crisis. it has surged 75% and rents are falling at the fastest pace in a decade. the price of bitcoin fell to its lowest in three weeks. the cryptocurrency dropped below
33,000, trending lower ever since breaking the 40,000 level. that led to growing speculation the market is in a bubble. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city, to our audience worldwide on this ecb decision day, good morning. ecb rate decision out in about 45 seconds out of frankfurt. let me give you a flavor of the market approaching the opening bell in new york. record highs across the board. the russell, the nasdaq, the s&p. outperformance from big tech. futures up on the s&p, nine points. in the bond market, treasury
stability, the story of the last couple days, yields up a basis point. 10 year, and wrapping things in foreign exchange, dollar weakness against the g10. euro-dollar moves one third of 1%. couple seconds, great decision from the ecb. rates, -50 basis points on the dapo rate. nobody expecting changes today. there is the call. unchanged, ecb on rates. people expect guidance unchanged. running through those headlines as they drop. in about 45 minutes, we hear from christine lagarde, who finds herself in a similar situation that president draghi found himself through much of the last cycle. he waited he waited. for christine lagarde, she has to focus on a bigger fiscal
impulse. on top of that, she desperately needs to see the authorities ramp-up vaccination efforts quickly. tom: i will go to the social part. when headlines come out, these are 50 headlines coming out and ferro has to translate them with mike mckee. i get that. what intrigues me is she has to deal with a negative rate experiment. how is that going? jonathan: the only people that believe that is going well are the people that have made the decision to go there. tom: thank you. jonathan: the people we speak to think negative interest rates are counterproductive. if you go back to when they came through in europe, 2014, they took the depot rate negative in the summer and did it because of the currency, the fx channel. it was not about bank lending.
it was about the fx channel. at that point the euro was far too strong. now, we have problems with banks lending again. this clear worry about lending standards tightening -- that is not what the european central bank wants. i don't know what more they can do. look at the headlines coming out now for the ecb. this is guidance in line with last month but worth repeating "emergency purchase program is going to run through the end of march '22." they will reinvest qe debt for an extended time after the first rate hike. let's say you believe we will get a rate hike from the ecb at some point in this cycle. after that, ecb will still be reinvesting the debt on its balance sheet they have been buying over the last year. alberto, ecb will be in this
market along long time. how does that shape your view on fixed income in europe? alberto: sometimes the most interesting things that come out of central banks are the things they don't talk about. two big questions here. one. how long are they going to keep going with the emergency program after the pandemic is over? it looks like that will be with us for a long time. beyond '22. the second is, what happens if there is another crisis? interest rates are already negative. net supply of european government bonds negative this year. buying more than the government issued. they have to think about something new. that is where some worrying scenarios, for investors with
strong financial repression, low yields, low inflation. jonathan: so important. are you saying we might not see the end of this? something new might be coming? not saying anytime soon but i want to understand the something you are thinking about. equities? surely we have already done everything we can do on the fixed income side? alberto: the biggest question here for investors for the next year is whether governments can beat stagnation. it is a moment of celebration in the u.s. with a new presidency. probably, the administration has a shot at this with stimulus and infrastructure spending. in europe, the recovery plan is still very small. german elections later this year. not exactly the year the european union will splurge on fiscal.
the thing ecb doesn't talk about is how they get inflation backup, how much more fiscal is needed and what the endgame is for the ppe? unless you are seeing germany spending more, which is unlikely this year, the emergency purchase program will be with us for a longer time, which means savers are getting returns well below inflation. one of the casualties of the pandemic has been the rate. it is deeply negative. it will continue to be like that, especially in europe. tom: sounds like a process in search of a theory. what is the underlying theory? literally making it up in the u.s. and europe as they go? alberto: our theory is interest rates at the extreme become counterproductive. argentina with very high interest rates. in theory, they are supposed to
curb inflation but at some point you have compounding. conversely, when you have deeply negative interest rates persistent, they create asset bubbles which burst and create deflation. you need to shake up the system, invest in infrastructure and improve activity. with the u.s. -- in europe, it is a tougher game to play. lisa: you have a difficult decision as a manager whether to just go by the central banks and ignore risk. at a point, it makes no fundamental sense for italian bond yields to be getting lower with respect to german yields as their government basically threatens to fall apart. the ecb has been buying more debt. do you lean into that as a
portfolio manager? or do you say, risk matters? alberto: risk matters. last year, we were over half in cash, credit funds before the pandemic hit. we had protection. we are getting to a point where the odds are skewed against the investor. you can make to sense if you are right but if you are wrong, you lose $.10. we are trying to preserve the odds to be equal or in favor of our investors. we are not buying long data investment grade. there are some areas still outside. some countries with convertible debt. some companies, the company's of the future. we are pretty cautious. we still have upside bets on the reopening of the economy. tom: thank you so much.
ecb looking for a solution. the headline out to the end of '23. michael mckee understands with his good questions to chairman powell running our economic coverage. your thoughts on the challenges madame lagarde faces? michael: she has to reassure markets the decline in economic activity is not going to be serious enough to change policy. they did not adjust anything today. steady as she goes even with increasing lockdowns that keep getting extended. economic forecast december was for gdp growth of 3.9% in '21. she may be saying the risks are downside when she does her conference coming up in 40 minutes. the question will be then what?
the program at trillion euros, as you say, they will extend the reinvestments to '23. no change there but maybe they speed them up and move them forward and do more purchases in first-quarter assuming we get a bigger rebound in the second half of the year. jonathan: we don't have a problem with financial conditions in the u.s. or europe. the outlook is beyond the control of the ecb and the governing council and christine lagarde. is the vaccination effort in europe lagging behind the developed world? is that a crucial issue for you? michael: pretty much every country. you have to get people vaccinated, to the point of herd immunity. rough start everywhere. that is not unexpected. it hasn't been done on this scale before. in the u.s., the biden administration has to be able to
put its plans in place to move forward and get that going. europe's got to get going with their program as well. the only ones moving fast are the brits. they started off on a tough scale. it is the question, as jay powell and others have said. the viruses running the economy right now. jonathan: mission-critical. great to catch up. looking down to washington dc, ecb in frankfurt, europe and the world and lisa, europe, day by day, week by week, if that program doesn't pick up in germany, europe is getting worse. lisa: one reason you pointed to the euro sterling cross. the idea as you see decimation in hospitals, through the u.k., there is a bet the economy can revive faster because they are getting vaccinations into people's arms more quickly. jonathan: 35 minutes, the ecb
♪ >> there is the possibility for the first time in a long time of more people falling back into poverty. >> we've been through a very disinflationary shock during >> all of the telltale signs of a structural bull market at play. >> this will be an excellent year for growth. >> i do not see the fullness of what the administration will do for the economy. >> this is "bloomberg surveillance" with tom keene, jonathan ferro, and lisa