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tv   Dateline London  BBC News  February 27, 2021 10:30am-11:01am GMT

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from france's le point and stephanie baker from bloomberg. and here in the studio, at a safe social distance, the bbc�*s business editor, simonjack. thanks forjoining us and welcome to you all. in britain, the chancellor, rishi sunak, presents his budget next week. there's pressure from new conservative mp's in the north, along with the labour party, for continued support through the pandemic and no tax rises. the hope is that economic growth and perhaps controlled inflation will do the trick. but what if it doesn't? could future low productivity, low investment or a rise in interest rates all pose dangerous risks especialy to jobs. simon, a big week ahead for the government — setting post pandemic strategy and the first budget after brexit — what are you expecting? i think there are two main challenges. we are coming out of the
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worst slump in over 300 years, and we've moved from a protect and survive mode to a support mode and then a growth mode is what we need next. if there's one thing that is the most powerful weapon to bring down debt as a percentage of your economy it is growth. if you've got this debt to gdp relationship, one of the best ways to get that down is increase the denominator, gdp, keep that going. if you have that, then you can also keep unemployment down, which will then keep the numerator of that fraction under control. so there will be a big emphasis on growth, and i expectjobs, jobs, jobs to be the mantra running through the chancellor's mind. you have a furlough, the wild card is what happens when there is measures are removed. it seems to me almost guaranteed that he will extend the furlough scheme that supports wages.
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people also extend the business rates and business tax holiday. but he will say that he has to be honest about the challenge of the public finances. it is almost 100% of total national income. we haven't seen this since the early 60s. he is going to say, unless we get this under control, our ability to borrow very cheaply from international investors, that widow looks like it might close. we are beginning to see the beginnings of that as bond yields are beginning to raise. and the uk government and the uk is very vulnerable to those rises. a single 1% rise in those interest rates costs £25 million. it is half the entire defence budget. that makes it vulnerable. he will have to say, yes, i will support business, but i'm going to need your help to pay it back. if i i'm going to need your help to pay it back. u, , i'm going to need your help to pay it back. u, , ,, , ., it back. if i can bring stephanie in. it's it back. if i can bring stephanie
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in- it's very _ it back. if i can bring stephanie in. it's very difficult _ it back. if i can bring stephanie in. it's very difficult for - it back. if i can bring stephanie in. it's very difficult for the - in. it's very difficult for the government to pull the plug on funding and support. we are still in lockdown here in the uk. and yet this risk of such high borrowing is apparent. this risk of such high borrowing is a--arent. , , this risk of such high borrowing is a- arent. �* ,,, , ~' apparent. absolutely. i think the chancellor has _ apparent. absolutely. i think the chancellor has a _ apparent. absolutely. i think the chancellor has a difficult - apparent. absolutely. i think the i chancellor has a difficult balancing act to _ chancellor has a difficult balancing act to try — chancellor has a difficult balancing act to try to send off this message that he _ act to try to send off this message that he is— act to try to send off this message that he is being fiscally responsible yet still pumping money into the _ responsible yet still pumping money into the economy to support, given the fact— into the economy to support, given the fact that so many businesses are shut down _ the fact that so many businesses are shutdown. how much is he going to id shutdown. how much is he going to go ahead _ shutdown. how much is he going to go ahead and highlight tax rises that many people in his own party and the _ that many people in his own party and the labour party are opposed to? he has— and the labour party are opposed to? he has signalled that he will raise corporation tax, perhaps not immediately but gradually over this parliament, as a way of plugging the holes _ parliament, as a way of plugging the holes in _ parliament, as a way of plugging the holes in the budget. i think he does have room — holes in the budget. i think he does have room to do so. the uk has the lowest _ have room to do so. the uk has the lowest corporation tax in the g7,
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and the — lowest corporation tax in the g7, and the us— lowest corporation tax in the g7, and the us has also signalled that biden— and the us has also signalled that biden could raise corporation tax. so i biden could raise corporation tax. 50 i think— biden could raise corporation tax. so i think the concern from the chahcettor_ so i think the concern from the chancellor is that there is significant fiscal scarring to the economy— significant fiscal scarring to the economy that will leave not just the debt overhang from the covid crisis but a _ debt overhang from the covid crisis but a permanent gap in public finances — but a permanent gap in public finances that doesn't leave the uk exposed _ finances that doesn't leave the uk exposed to interest rate rises. i think— exposed to interest rate rises. i think the — exposed to interest rate rises. i think the estimate is something like 40 billion _ think the estimate is something like 40 billion. so he has to strike this balance _ 40 billion. so he has to strike this balance between trying to stimulate the economy and get it back on its feet while — the economy and get it back on its feet while making sure that there is enough _ feet while making sure that there is enough income coming in. it is incredibly— enough income coming in. it is incredibly difficult to figure out how quickly the economy will recoven _ how quickly the economy will recover. the other question i have is, what _ recover. the other question i have is, what kind — recover. the other question i have is, what kind of actual stimulus mighty— is, what kind of actual stimulus mighty outline next week? eat 0ut
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is, what kind of actual stimulus mighty outline next week? eat out to help out. _ mighty outline next week? eat out to help 0ut, or something like that? people _ help 0ut, or something like that? people have saved an awful lot of money, _ people have saved an awful lot of money, some people are saved an awful— money, some people are saved an awful lot _ money, some people are saved an awful lot of— money, some people are saved an awful lot of money, during the crisis — awful lot of money, during the crisis. some people lost theirjobs under— crisis. some people lost theirjobs under any— crisis. some people lost theirjobs under any much worse position. there is a iot— under any much worse position. there is a lot of— under any much worse position. there is a lot of pent up demand. does he need _ is a lot of pent up demand. does he need to— is a lot of pent up demand. does he need to do— is a lot of pent up demand. does he need to do that active stimulus, especially— need to do that active stimulus, especially since many people think now that _ especially since many people think now that eat 0ut especially since many people think now that eat out to help 0ut might have contributed to the second wave of infections that we saw in the autumn — of infections that we saw in the autumn. , ~ ., . of infections that we saw in the autumn. , a, . autumn. let me bring in marc roche. this is the first _ autumn. let me bring in marc roche. this is the first post-brexit _ this is the first post—brexit budget. we haven't seen last year... you would have been asking a lot of questions about the future of britain in very different economic circumstances. the government is tackling both of those challenges. the challenge of brexit is not what we expect, — the challenge of brexit is not what we expect, because _ the challenge of brexit is not what we expect, because the _ the challenge of brexit is not what we expect, because the effect - the challenge of brexit is not what we expect, because the effect will| we expect, because the effect will be mid-term _ we expect, because the effect will be mid-term on— we expect, because the effect will be mid—term on foreign _ we expect, because the effect will. be mid—term on foreign investment and witt—
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be mid—term on foreign investment and will be — be mid—term on foreign investment and will be use _ be mid—term on foreign investment and will be use the _ be mid—term on foreign investment and will be use the uk— be mid—term on foreign investment and will be use the uk as _ be mid—term on foreign investment and will be use the uk as a - and will be use the uk as a springboard _ and will be use the uk as a springboard europe - and will be use the uk as a springboard europe again? j and will be use the uk as a i springboard europe again? so and will be use the uk as a - springboard europe again? so brexit is, except— springboard europe again? so brexit is, except the — springboard europe again? so brexit is, except the little _ springboard europe again? so brexit is, except the little problems, - springboard europe again? so brexit is, except the little problems, has . is, except the little problems, has been _ is, except the little problems, has been quite — is, except the little problems, has been quite a — is, except the little problems, has been quite a success _ is, except the little problems, has been quite a success short—term l is, except the little problems, has i been quite a success short—term for the government, _ been quite a success short—term for the government, and _ been quite a success short—term for the government, and the _ been quite a success short—term for l the government, and the government doesn't _ the government, and the government doesn't have _ the government, and the government doesn't have to — the government, and the government doesn't have to be _ the government, and the government doesn't have to be too _ the government, and the government doesn't have to be too preoccupied i doesn't have to be too preoccupied with that — doesn't have to be too preoccupied with that the _ doesn't have to be too preoccupied with that. the biggest _ doesn't have to be too preoccupied with that. the biggest risk, - doesn't have to be too preoccupied with that. the biggest risk, as - doesn't have to be too preoccupied with that. the biggest risk, as my. with that. the biggest risk, as my two colleagues _ with that. the biggest risk, as my two colleagues have _ with that. the biggest risk, as my two colleagues have mentioned, i with that. the biggest risk, as myi two colleagues have mentioned, it with that. the biggest risk, as my. two colleagues have mentioned, it is about— two colleagues have mentioned, it is about how— two colleagues have mentioned, it is about how to— two colleagues have mentioned, it is about how to rebalance _ two colleagues have mentioned, it is about how to rebalance the - two colleagues have mentioned, it isi about how to rebalance the economy. britain _ about how to rebalance the economy. britain is _ about how to rebalance the economy. britain is a _ about how to rebalance the economy. britain is a good — about how to rebalance the economy. britain is a good situation, _ about how to rebalance the economy. britain is a good situation, better- britain is a good situation, better than _ britain is a good situation, better than europe, _ britain is a good situation, better than europe, because _ britain is a good situation, better than europe, because the - britain is a good situation, betterl than europe, because the success of vaccination _ than europe, because the success of vaccination has — than europe, because the success of vaccination has given _ than europe, because the success of vaccination has given a _ than europe, because the success of vaccination has given a sort - than europe, because the success of vaccination has given a sort of- vaccination has given a sort of optimistic— vaccination has given a sort of optimistic factor. _ vaccination has given a sort of optimistic factor. and - vaccination has given a sort of optimistic factor. and the - vaccination has given a sort of- optimistic factor. and the economy to be _ optimistic factor. and the economy to be back— optimistic factor. and the economy to be back on — optimistic factor. and the economy to be back on some _ optimistic factor. and the economy to be back on some sort— optimistic factor. and the economy to be back on some sort of. - optimistic factor. and the economy to be back on some sort of. like i optimistic factor. and the economy to be back on some sort of. like in| to be back on some sort of. like in the us— to be back on some sort of. like in the us in— to be back on some sort of. like in the us in the — to be back on some sort of. like in the us in the summer, _ to be back on some sort of. like in the us in the summer, the - to be back on some sort of. like inl the us in the summer, the problem to be back on some sort of. like in. the us in the summer, the problem is the us in the summer, the problem is the conception — the us in the summer, the problem is the conception. the _ the us in the summer, the problem is the conception. the economy- the us in the summer, the problem is the conception. the economy in- the us in the summer, the problem is the conception. the economy in the l the conception. the economy in the uk is _ the conception. the economy in the uk is really— the conception. the economy in the uk is really based _ the conception. the economy in the uk is really based on _
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the conception. the economy in the uk is really based on two _ the conception. the economy in the uk is really based on two things. i uk is really based on two things. conception— uk is really based on two things. conception has— uk is really based on two things. conception has to _ uk is really based on two things. conception has to be _ uk is really based on two things. conception has to be delivered. peopie — conception has to be delivered. peopie might— conception has to be delivered. people might be _ conception has to be delivered. people might be very— conception has to be delivered. people might be very reluctantl conception has to be delivered. l people might be very reluctant to spend _ people might be very reluctant to spend went — people might be very reluctant to spend went lockdown _ people might be very reluctant to spend went lockdown finishes. i people might be very reluctant toj spend went lockdown finishes. so people might be very reluctant to i spend went lockdown finishes. so he might— spend went lockdown finishes. so he might think— spend went lockdown finishes. so he might think some _ spend went lockdown finishes. so he might think some sort _ spend went lockdown finishes. so he might think some sort of— spend went lockdown finishes. so he might think some sort of big - spend went lockdown finishes. so he might think some sort of big war- might think some sort of big war bonds— might think some sort of big war bonds to — might think some sort of big war bonds to take _ might think some sort of big war bonds to take all— might think some sort of big war bonds to take all of— might think some sort of big war bonds to take all of these - might think some sort of big warl bonds to take all of these savings and put _ bonds to take all of these savings and put them _ bonds to take all of these savings and put them into— bonds to take all of these savings and put them into productive - and put them into productive investment, _ and put them into productive investment, is— and put them into productive investment, is one _ and put them into productive investment, is one of- and put them into productive investment, is one of the - and put them into productive - investment, is one of the solutions to get— investment, is one of the solutions to get the — investment, is one of the solutions to get the conception _ investment, is one of the solutions to get the conception back. - investment, is one of the solutions to get the conception back. let- investment, is one of the solutions to get the conception back.- to get the conception back. let me cuickl to get the conception back. let me quickly asking _ to get the conception back. let me quickly asking for _ to get the conception back. let me quickly asking for brief _ to get the conception back. let me quickly asking for brief answers. i quickly asking for brief answers. simon, the politics in this, the perception is that borisjohnson is more of a one nation type of vigour. central within the conservative party would be very reluctant to do anything that would damage his popularity given the election cycle is 2024. rishi sunak is more
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traditional, how much does that play into decisions and judgments? into decisions and 'udgments? number ten and number— into decisions and judgments? number ten and number“, _ into decisions and judgments? number ten and number“, where _ into decisions and judgments? number ten and number 11, where the - ten and number 11, where the chancellor lives, are structurally designed to clash with each other. the finest art wants to be generous, the council had to say, oh, i don't want to —— i don't think we can afford that. rishi sunak is fiscally conservative, and historically the conservative party has always said this is the defining line between us and the labour party, which is that we are a little bit parsimonious, we try to look after the household budget. i think that is different. if you remember after the financial crisis there was a programme launched called austerity. but the government is very clear we are not going back to that. which means the only other way we can do that is through tax rises at some point. the other point is that we are dealing with a very different conservative party which has a very different
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idea compared to historically about the role of the state. they think it is a good idea for the state to get involved in certain areas, and therefore in this post—brexit world don't be surprised to see them doing things which you would think, that looks a bit like picking winners, that looks a bit like state interventions. net—zero, etc? you could see a lot of money going into areas of business is that you probably previously wouldn't have seen. it probably previously wouldn't have seen. , , , , seen. it is interesting because the conservatives _ seen. it is interesting because the conservatives are _ seen. it is interesting because the conservatives are gone _ seen. it is interesting because the conservatives are gone into - conservatives are gone into traditional labour activity. the opposition saying they don't want any tax rises. and politics slightly upended. in a way, both parties want the same outcome.— upended. in a way, both parties want the same outcome. yes, on the whole. for those reasons, _ the same outcome. yes, on the whole. for those reasons, both _ the same outcome. yes, on the whole. for those reasons, both want _ the same outcome. yes, on the whole. for those reasons, both want to - for those reasons, both want to spend — for those reasons, both want to spend so — for those reasons, both want to spend. so there— for those reasons, both want to spend. so there is— for those reasons, both want to spend. so there is no— for those reasons, both want toi
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spend. so there is no difference, reaiiv _ spend. so there is no difference, reaiiv but — spend. so there is no difference, reaiiv. but on— spend. so there is no difference, really. but on the _ spend. so there is no difference, really. but on the whole - spend. so there is no difference, really. but on the whole it - spend. so there is no difference, really. but on the whole it is - spend. so there is no difference, i really. but on the whole it is quite extraordinarv _ really. but on the whole it is quite extraordinary when _ really. but on the whole it is quite extraordinary when you _ really. but on the whole it is quite extraordinary when you compare i really. but on the whole it is quite | extraordinary when you compare it really. but on the whole it is quite i extraordinary when you compare it to europe _ extraordinary when you compare it to europe how— extraordinary when you compare it to europe how stable _ extraordinary when you compare it to europe how stable the _ extraordinary when you compare it to europe how stable the political- europe how stable the political situation — europe how stable the political situation in _ europe how stable the political situation in britain _ europe how stable the political situation in britain is. - europe how stable the political situation in britain is. have - europe how stable the political situation in britain is. have a l situation in britain is. have a prime — situation in britain is. have a prime minister, _ situation in britain is. have a prime minister, very- situation in britain is. have a prime minister, very stable, | situation in britain is. have a . prime minister, very stable, can concentrate _ prime minister, very stable, can concentrate. he _ prime minister, very stable, can concentrate. he got— prime minister, very stable, can concentrate. he got the - prime minister, very stable, can. concentrate. he got the vaccination at least _ concentrate. he got the vaccination at least riqht~ — concentrate. he got the vaccination at least right. then— concentrate. he got the vaccination at least right. then you _ concentrate. he got the vaccination at least right. then you go - concentrate. he got the vaccination at least right. then you go into- at least right. then you go into europe — at least right. then you go into europe and _ at least right. then you go into europe and what _ at least right. then you go into europe and what you _ at least right. then you go into europe and what you see - at least right. then you go intol europe and what you see there, macron— europe and what you see there, macron is— europe and what you see there, macron is to _ europe and what you see there, macron is to be _ europe and what you see there, macron is to be re—elected - europe and what you see there, macron is to be re—elected nextj macron is to be re—elected next year. _ macron is to be re—elected next year. in — macron is to be re—elected next year, in holland, _ macron is to be re—elected next year, in holland, in— macron is to be re—elected next year, in holland, in belgium. i macron is to be re—elected next l year, in holland, in belgium. and then— year, in holland, in belgium. and then you — year, in holland, in belgium. and then you have _ year, in holland, in belgium. and then you have the _ year, in holland, in belgium. and then you have the problem - year, in holland, in belgium. and then you have the problem with l year, in holland, in belgium. and l then you have the problem with the popuiists_ then you have the problem with the poputists in— then you have the problem with the populists in eastern _ then you have the problem with the populists in eastern europe. - then you have the problem with the populists in eastern europe. it- then you have the problem with the populists in eastern europe. it is. then you have the problem with the populists in eastern europe. it is a. populists in eastern europe. it is a complete — populists in eastern europe. it is a compiete mess— populists in eastern europe. it is a complete mess politically, - populists in eastern europe. it is al complete mess politically, whereas britain _ complete mess politically, whereas britain is _ complete mess politically, whereas britain is relatively— complete mess politically, whereas britain is relatively stable. - complete mess politically, whereas britain is relatively stable. tittie- britain is relatively stable. we will come _ britain is relatively stable. will come back to you for britain is relatively stable.“ will come back to you for more on europe. to america now, where the approach of president biden is crystal clear. rather like barack 0bama in 2008 but on a vastly greater scale,
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the president is pumping money into the economy. a stimulus that is said to be worth $1.9 trillion will no doubt fund every proposed bridge and road programme in the nation, but do public works of this kind produce lasting benefits? the world is watching. has america found the route out of the economic crisis or is this too much, as even a usually sympathetic commentator like larry summers fears? stephanie, is this an over—correction? 0rdo you or do you think this is what's needed? �* �* , ., ., , or do you think this is what's needed? �* �* , . ., , ., or do you think this is what's needed? �* �*, ., ., , ., needed? beiden's mantra is that you cannot spend — needed? beiden's mantra is that you cannot spend too _ needed? beiden's mantra is that you cannot spend too much, _ needed? beiden's mantra is that you cannot spend too much, and - needed? beiden's mantra is that you cannot spend too much, and so - needed? beiden's mantra is that you cannot spend too much, and so you. cannot spend too much, and so you saw yesterday the house of representatives passed his stimulus bill, 19 _ representatives passed his stimulus bill, 1.9 trillion, which outlines these — bill, 1.9 trillion, which outlines these checks which will go out to tens of— these checks which will go out to tens of millions of americans worth $1400 _ tens of millions of americans worth $1400 an — tens of millions of americans worth $1400. an extension of the top up in unemployment benefits, 350 billion in state _ unemployment benefits, 350 billion in state aid to local and state governments. 200 billion to the schools — governments. 200 billion to the schools. and lots more money for the
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vaccination _ schools. and lots more money for the vaccination programme. sol schools. and lots more money for the vaccination programme. so i think beiden _ vaccination programme. so i think beiden is — vaccination programme. so i think beiden is coming at this learning the lessons from the aftermath of the lessons from the aftermath of the financial crisis, when of course 0bama _ the financial crisis, when of course 0bama passed the stimulus package which _ 0bama passed the stimulus package which is _ 0bama passed the stimulus package which is about half of this size. in retrospect. — which is about half of this size. in retrospect, many economists believe it was— retrospect, many economists believe it was too _ retrospect, many economists believe it was too little and that growth was sluggish, and that if they had come _ was sluggish, and that if they had come out — was sluggish, and that if they had come out bigger the recovery would have recovered more quickly. i think that is— have recovered more quickly. i think that is very— have recovered more quickly. i think that is very much on the top of his mind _ that is very much on the top of his mind 0t— that is very much on the top of his mind. of course, the concern, like it mind. of course, the concern, like it was— mind. of course, the concern, like it was during — mind. of course, the concern, like it was during the financial crisis, is that— it was during the financial crisis, is that all— it was during the financial crisis, is that all of this money, discussion of money, could fan inflation — discussion of money, could fan inflation. there was a lot of concern _ inflation. there was a lot of concern back in 2009 about that, it's never— concern back in 2009 about that, it's never panned out. we never had inflationary— it's never panned out. we never had inflationary situation emerge. this time, _ inflationary situation emerge. this time, there is again it still concern~ _ time, there is again it still concern. there is an argument to be made _ concern. there is an argument to be made that— concern. there is an argument to be made that this time is different because — made that this time is different
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because this crisis has all been about— because this crisis has all been about the — because this crisis has all been about the shutdown of the economy, businesses _ about the shutdown of the economy, businesses closing down, people stuck— businesses closing down, people stuck at — businesses closing down, people stuck at home. a lot of people are saving _ stuck at home. a lot of people are saving money, so in addition to the fiscai— saving money, so in addition to the fiscal and _ saving money, so in addition to the fiscal and monetary stimulus you're going _ fiscal and monetary stimulus you're going to _ fiscal and monetary stimulus you're going to have that pent up savings possibly— going to have that pent up savings possibly feeding into higher inflation, which is what larry service — inflation, which is what larry service is— inflation, which is what larry service is perhaps concerned about, that this _ service is perhaps concerned about, that this is — service is perhaps concerned about, that this is going to overheat the economy — that this is going to overheat the econom . g , ., that this is going to overheat the econom ., , ., ., ., economy. just quoting one line from his iece economy. just quoting one line from his piece in — economy. just quoting one line from his piece in the _ economy. just quoting one line from his piece in the washington - economy. just quoting one line from his piece in the washington post. . his piece in the washington post. "steps into the unknown and very credibility they need clear statements of consequences being monitored closely. everyone is going to follow the recovery, if that is what we are going to see, in the us. 0bviously their currency helps. what is your view? this is a huge change from trump. is your view? this is a huge change from trump-—
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is your view? this is a huge change from trump. new deal policy which the democratic _ from trump. new deal policy which the democratic president _ from trump. new deal policy which the democratic president and - from trump. new deal policy which j the democratic president and some republicans — the democratic president and some republicans have _ the democratic president and some republicans have followed. - the democratic president and some republicans have followed. it - the democratic president and some republicans have followed. it is - republicans have followed. it is very welcome _ republicans have followed. it is very welcome. the _ republicans have followed. it is very welcome. the amplitude . republicans have followed. it is| very welcome. the amplitude of republicans have followed. it is i very welcome. the amplitude of it republicans have followed. it is - very welcome. the amplitude of it is quite _ very welcome. the amplitude of it is quite staqqerinq _ very welcome. the amplitude of it is quite staggering because, _ very welcome. the amplitude of it is quite staggering because, of- very welcome. the amplitude of it is| quite staggering because, of course, there _ quite staggering because, of course, there is— quite staggering because, of course, there is always — quite staggering because, of course, there is always the _ quite staggering because, of course, there is always the danger _ quite staggering because, of course, there is always the danger of - quite staggering because, of course, there is always the danger of an - there is always the danger of an increase — there is always the danger of an increase in— there is always the danger of an increase in inflation, _ there is always the danger of an increase in inflation, especiallyl there is always the danger of anl increase in inflation, especially if the growth, _ increase in inflation, especially if the growth, and _ increase in inflation, especially if the growth, and it— increase in inflation, especially if the growth, and it looks - increase in inflation, especially if the growth, and it looks like - increase in inflation, especially if the growth, and it looks like the| increase in inflation, especially if. the growth, and it looks like the us will start— the growth, and it looks like the us will start growing _ the growth, and it looks like the us will start growing again _ the growth, and it looks like the us will start growing again in - the growth, and it looks like the us will start growing again in the - will start growing again in the summer. _ will start growing again in the summer, from _ will start growing again in the summer, from the _ will start growing again in the summer, from the summer. will start growing again in the i summer, from the summer on. will start growing again in the - summer, from the summer on. china is growing _ summer, from the summer on. china is growing too~ _ summer, from the summer on. china is growing too there _ summer, from the summer on. china is growing too there is _ summer, from the summer on. china is growing too. there is a _ summer, from the summer on. china is growing too. there is a risk— summer, from the summer on. china is growing too. there is a risk that - growing too. there is a risk that inflation, — growing too. there is a risk that inflation, the _ growing too. there is a risk that inflation, the interest— growing too. there is a risk that inflation, the interest rate - growing too. there is a risk that inflation, the interest rate will. growing too. there is a risk that. inflation, the interest rate will go up, inflation, the interest rate will go up. which — inflation, the interest rate will go up. which is — inflation, the interest rate will go up, which is terrible _ inflation, the interest rate will go up, which is terrible for— inflation, the interest rate will go. up, which is terrible for borrowing. but the _ up, which is terrible for borrowing. but the us— up, which is terrible for borrowing. but the us has— up, which is terrible for borrowing. but the us has never— up, which is terrible for borrowing. but the us has never really- up, which is terrible for borrowing. l but the us has never really bothered about _ but the us has never really bothered about borrowing. _ but the us has never really bothered about borrowing. istile— but the us has never really bothered about borrowing.— about borrowing. we are seeing arguments _ about borrowing. we are seeing arguments over _ about borrowing. we are seeing arguments over the _ about borrowing. we are seeing arguments over the minimum i about borrowing. we are seeing -
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arguments over the minimum wage. that hasn't gone through in the last couple of days, but obviously the administrations are committed to it. give us a sense of scale of what is happening in the us? the stimulus ackaue happening in the us? the stimulus package looks _ happening in the us? the stimulus package looks something - happening in the us? the stimulus package looks something like - happening in the us? the stimulus package looks something like 996 i happening in the us? the stimulus| package looks something like 996 of package looks something like 9% of gdp. that is a massive number. if you compare that to the uk, a bit of the support package we have talked about which you could call stimulus is probably about 2%. in europe, they are talking about 4%. you could say the uk stimulus package is pretty weak compared to its competitors. very difficult to compare because the uk has been a bit more generous on the support scheme. which bucket do you put this money into? the question will be, as stephanie was saying, the lesson from the financial crisis was that there is the did more earlier did better. if beiden are saying, "i can't spend too much", people would say that the lesson in the uk was
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that we didn't fix our banks quickly enough and the us did. most economists would say the risks are on doing too little, not doing too much. . , . . to europe, where growth has been sluggish and unemployment, especially among the young, has been high for a decade now. will the pandemic exacerbate the problems in the european economies? will it open up structural cracks in the eurozone? with very different budgetary positions in the respective nations, will the response in europe be further integration, of taxation, for example, or will the crisis lead to further division and fuel political populism — marc, is the eu vaccine rollout holding back recovery? it's a disaster, isn't it? you have the vaccine — it's a disaster, isn't it? you have the vaccine nationalism. - it's a disaster, isn't it? you have the vaccine nationalism. this - it's a disaster, isn't it? you have| the vaccine nationalism. this can push _ the vaccine nationalism. this can push back— the vaccine nationalism. this can push back the _ the vaccine nationalism. this can push back the return _ the vaccine nationalism. this can push back the return to - the vaccine nationalism. this can push back the return to normal. push back the return to normal
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economy~ _ push back the return to normal economy~ 0n _ push back the return to normal economy. on top _ push back the return to normal economy. on top of _ push back the return to normal economy. on top of it, - push back the return to normal economy. on top of it, it - push back the return to normal economy. on top of it, it has l push back the return to normal- economy. on top of it, it has really frozen _ economy. on top of it, it has really frozen ali— economy. on top of it, it has really frozen all of — economy. on top of it, it has really frozen all of the _ economy. on top of it, it has really frozen all of the reform _ economy. on top of it, it has really frozen all of the reform that - economy. on top of it, it has really frozen all of the reform that had i economy. on top of it, it has really frozen all of the reform that had to| frozen all of the reform that had to be done _ frozen all of the reform that had to be done to— frozen all of the reform that had to be done to get— frozen all of the reform that had to be done to get europe _ frozen all of the reform that had to be done to get europe on - frozen all of the reform that had to be done to get europe on its - frozen all of the reform that had to be done to get europe on its feet. be done to get europe on its feet again. _ be done to get europe on its feet again. which— be done to get europe on its feet again. which is— be done to get europe on its feet again, which is labour— be done to get europe on its feet again, which is labour market, i again, which is labour market, capital— again, which is labour market, capital market, _ again, which is labour market, capital market, youth - again, which is labour market, - capital market, youth unemployment. it is capital market, youth unemployment. it is also _ capital market, youth unemployment. it is also exacerbated _ capital market, youth unemployment. it is also exacerbated the _ capital market, youth unemployment. it is also exacerbated the fight - it is also exacerbated the fight between — it is also exacerbated the fight between what _ it is also exacerbated the fight between what i _ it is also exacerbated the fight between what i would - it is also exacerbated the fight between what i would call - it is also exacerbated the fight between what i would call the | it is also exacerbated the fight - between what i would call the more democratic— between what i would call the more democratic countries _ between what i would call the more democratic countries and _ between what i would call the more democratic countries and the - democratic countries and the authoritarian _ democratic countries and the authoritarian in _ democratic countries and the authoritarian in the - democratic countries and the authoritarian in the east. - democratic countries and the i authoritarian in the east. more importantly— authoritarian in the east. more importantly for _ authoritarian in the east. more importantly for the _ authoritarian in the east. more importantly for the future, - authoritarian in the east. more i importantly for the future, there authoritarian in the east. more - importantly for the future, there is a huge _ importantly for the future, there is a huge crack— importantly for the future, there is a huge crack now— importantly for the future, there is a huge crack now between - importantly for the future, there is a huge crack now between the - importantly for the future, there isl a huge crack now between the most fiscally _ a huge crack now between the most fiscally conservative _ a huge crack now between the most fiscally conservative north, - fiscally conservative north, scandinavia, _ fiscally conservative north, scandinavia, and _ fiscally conservative north, scandinavia, and the - fiscally conservative north, i scandinavia, and the southern fiscally conservative north, - scandinavia, and the southern which need much — scandinavia, and the southern which need much more _ scandinavia, and the southern which need much more money— scandinavia, and the southern which need much more money at - scandinavia, and the southern which need much more money at a - scandinavia, and the southern which need much more money at a time i scandinavia, and the southern which . need much more money at a time when the budget— need much more money at a time when the budget relaunch, _ need much more money at a time when the budget relaunch, which— need much more money at a time when the budget relaunch, which is— need much more money at a time when the budget relaunch, which is quite - the budget relaunch, which is quite bil the budget relaunch, which is quite biq on— the budget relaunch, which is quite big on the — the budget relaunch, which is quite big on the continent, _ the budget relaunch, which is quite big on the continent, has— the budget relaunch, which is quite big on the continent, has been- big on the continent, has been plagued — big on the continent, has been plagued by— big on the continent, has been plagued by bureaucracy, - big on the continent, has been plagued by bureaucracy, has i big on the continent, has been. plagued by bureaucracy, has been plagued _ plagued by bureaucracy, has been plagued by— plagued by bureaucracy, has been plagued by political— plagued by bureaucracy, has been plagued by political problems. - plagued by bureaucracy, has been plagued by political problems. sol plagued by political problems. so the whole — plagued by political problems. so the whole situation _ plagued by political problems. so the whole situation in _ plagued by political problems. so the whole situation in europe - plagued by political problems. so the whole situation in europe is. plagued by political problems. so i the whole situation in europe is not very good — the whole situation in europe is not very good 0n— the whole situation in europe is not
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very good on top— the whole situation in europe is not very good on top of— the whole situation in europe is not very good. on top of it, _ the whole situation in europe is not very good. on top of it, there - the whole situation in europe is not very good. on top of it, there are i very good. on top of it, there are political— very good. on top of it, there are political issues _ very good. on top of it, there are political issues coming. _ very good. on top of it, there are| political issues coming. especially that the _ political issues coming. especially that the high _ political issues coming. especially that the high court _ political issues coming. especially that the high court of _ political issues coming. especially that the high court of europe... i that the high court of europe... macron— that the high court of europe... macron could _ that the high court of europe... macron could be _ that the high court of europe... macron could be defeated - that the high court of europe... macron could be defeated in - that the high court of europe... i macron could be defeated in next year's _ macron could be defeated in next year's election. _ macron could be defeated in next year's election, and _ macron could be defeated in next year's election, and the - macron could be defeated in next. year's election, and the succession of merkei— year's election, and the succession of merkei isn't _ year's election, and the succession of merkel isn't completely - year's election, and the succession of merkel isn't completely done. . year's election, and the successionl of merkel isn't completely done. so europe _ of merkel isn't completely done. so europe is— of merkel isn't completely done. so europe is going _ of merkel isn't completely done. so europe is going through— of merkel isn't completely done. so europe is going through very - europe is going through very difficult _ europe is going through very difficult times. _ europe is going through very difficult times. also, - europe is going through very difficult times. also, europe| europe is going through very - difficult times. also, europe hasn't taken _ difficult times. also, europe hasn't taken advantage _ difficult times. also, europe hasn't taken advantage of— difficult times. also, europe hasn't taken advantage of brexit. - difficult times. also, europe hasn't taken advantage of brexit. so - difficult times. also, europe hasn't taken advantage of brexit. so not. taken advantage of brexit. so not good _ taken advantage of brexit. so not good at _ taken advantage of brexit. so not good at a — taken advantage of brexit. so not good at a time _ taken advantage of brexit. so not good at a time for— taken advantage of brexit. so not good at a time for europe - taken advantage of brexit. so not good at a time for europe and - taken advantage of brexit. so notj good at a time for europe and the eurozone~ — good at a time for europe and the eurozone~ it's _ good at a time for europe and the eurozone. �*, . ,. ., good at a time for europe and the eurozone. �* , . ,. ., ., good at a time for europe and the eurozone. �*, . ,. ., ., , eurozone. it's fascinating to see the contrast _ eurozone. it's fascinating to see the contrast between _ eurozone. it's fascinating to see the contrast between east - eurozone. it's fascinating to see the contrast between east and i eurozone. it's fascinating to see - the contrast between east and west. how do you read events in the eu at the moment? the how do you read events in the eu at the moment?— the moment? the eurozone has suffered the _ the moment? the eurozone has suffered the more _ the moment? the eurozone has suffered the more traumatic- the moment? the eurozone has- suffered the more traumatic economic fallout— suffered the more traumatic economic fallout than _ suffered the more traumatic economic fallout than the us, yet the eu has
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responded much more weakly in terms of trying _ responded much more weakly in terms of trying to— responded much more weakly in terms of trying to get the eurozone economy back on its feet again. i think— economy back on its feet again. i think even— economy back on its feet again. i think even before the crisis there was some — think even before the crisis there was some pushback on the block's fiscal— was some pushback on the block's fiscal rules — was some pushback on the block's fiscal rules which required economies to keep their budget deficits — economies to keep their budget deficits to 3% of gdp. i think that's— deficits to 3% of gdp. i think that's going to have to be relaxed now _ that's going to have to be relaxed now that — that's going to have to be relaxed now. that was already in the works precrisis~ _ now. that was already in the works precrisis~ i— now. that was already in the works precrisis. i think that the eurozone realty— precrisis. i think that the eurozone really needs to respond with more dramatic— really needs to respond with more dramatic measures to try and get the economy— dramatic measures to try and get the economy back on its feet, especially because _ economy back on its feet, especially because the vaccine roll—out has been _ because the vaccine roll—out has been so — because the vaccine roll—out has been so slow so they will be behind both the _ been so slow so they will be behind both the us and the uk, because their— both the us and the uk, because their economies won't be able to reopen— their economies won't be able to reopen as — their economies won't be able to reopen as quickly. the their economies won't be able to reopen as quickly.— their economies won't be able to reopen as quickly. the politics of this through _ reopen as quickly. the politics of this through the _ reopen as quickly. the politics of this through the brexit _ reopen as quickly. the politics of this through the brexit lens. - reopen as quickly. the politics of this through the brexit lens. not| this through the brexit lens. not such a massive focus as it might
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have been given the pandemic, but how does it look? has it benefited the government here?— how does it look? has it benefited the government here? there are clear roblems the government here? there are clear problems that — the government here? there are clear problems that brexit _ the government here? there are clear problems that brexit has _ the government here? there are clear problems that brexit has created - the government here? there are clear problems that brexit has created for i problems that brexit has created for some traders getting stuffed into the eu. there are some significant nontariff barriers. the vaccine roll—out has dominated this debate. the uk has been very effective at doing that, and the size and complexity of the eu has meant a coordinated fiscal stimulus response to the pandemic has also been hard to the pandemic has also been hard to organised. i think the uk government has been feeling in a pretty good place about this, because to them, they will be basking in the glow of this vaccine roll—out glow of this success for a long time to come, and it will have economic benefits. i think the government will be pretty happy that they are in the right kind of place. just one point, which is about younger people. you asked the
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question about generational divide. if you look at the hardest—hit sectors across europe in every country, hospitality, retail, tourism. retail is many people's first experience of the world of work. so the younger people have suffered much more in this than others. i think one of the big challenges of governments, notjust in the uk, will be what can we do for young people? because the wild card is how many of those jobs that are on furlough no longer really exist? if they don't exist, what are these people going to do? particularly younger people. actually, london has been very hit. they have incredible ecosystems built up around office worker footfall. the people who fix your shoes or do dry—cleaning or coffee, a lot of those are very young workers. they rely on a heavy concentration of people coming to city centres.
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concentration of people coming to city centres-— city centres. women also hit according — city centres. women also hit according to _ city centres. women also hit according to some _ city centres. women also hit according to some of- city centres. women also hit according to some of the - city centres. women also hit. according to some of the data city centres. women also hit - according to some of the data around the world. stephanie, just on europe, lots of us are wondering whether we can go on holiday to europe, partly linked to the vaccine roll—out and the economic success that goes with it. i know you've been doing some work on that. yes. been doing some work on that. yes, as we are all — been doing some work on that. yes, as we are all eager— been doing some work on that. yes, as we are all eager to _ been doing some work on that. yes, as we are all eager to go _ been doing some work on that. yes, as we are all eager to go on holiday to somewhere warm and sunny, i think that is— to somewhere warm and sunny, i think that is a _ to somewhere warm and sunny, i think that is a real? — to somewhere warm and sunny, i think that is a real? 0ver europe because of the _ that is a real? 0ver europe because of the slow— that is a real? 0ver europe because of the slow vaccine roll—out. in some — of the slow vaccine roll—out. in some places, france in particular, has been — some places, france in particular, has been very slow and behind schedule _ has been very slow and behind schedule. i did speak with a greek tourism _ schedule. i did speak with a greek tourism minister this week and he has some — tourism minister this week and he has some pretty bold, ambitious plans— has some pretty bold, ambitious plans to — has some pretty bold, ambitious plans to reopen tourism in greece. he is— plans to reopen tourism in greece. he is talking, as we so, to the government about striking an agreement allowing travellers to come _ agreement allowing travellers to come who have been vaccinated. i
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think— come who have been vaccinated. i think what— come who have been vaccinated. i think what we are going to see is a mix of— think what we are going to see is a mix of some — think what we are going to see is a mix of some sort of proof of vaccination and testing regimes to try to _ vaccination and testing regimes to try to get — vaccination and testing regimes to try to get tourism going again this summer — try to get tourism going again this summer i— try to get tourism going again this summer. i don't know about you, it is a summer. idon't know about you, it is a question— summer. i don't know about you, it is a question on my mind. do i really— is a question on my mind. do i really want _ is a question on my mind. do i really want to go on holiday in europe — really want to go on holiday in europe this summer? the vaccination progress _ europe this summer? the vaccination progress is _ europe this summer? the vaccination progress is slow and there might be more _ progress is slow and there might be more covid — progress is slow and there might be more covid circulating, and i'm probably— more covid circulating, and i'm probably not alone in that regard. marci _ probably not alone in that regard. marc. what— probably not alone in that regard. marc, what is your sense?- probably not alone in that regard. marc, what is your sense? come to euro e. marc, what is your sense? come to europe- it's — marc, what is your sense? come to europe. it's france, _ marc, what is your sense? come to europe. it's france, can _ marc, what is your sense? come to europe. it's france, can you - europe. it's france, can you imagine? — europe. it's france, can you imagine?— europe. it's france, can you imauine? �* ., europe. it's france, can you imaine? �* . .. . ., imagine? i'm vaccinated, iwill go to france- — imagine? i'm vaccinated, iwill go to france- i'm _ imagine? i'm vaccinated, iwill go to france. i'm coming _ imagine? i'm vaccinated, iwill go to france. i'm coming with - imagine? i'm vaccinated, iwill go to france. i'm coming with you, i imagine? i'm vaccinated, iwill go to france. i'm coming with you, if that's all right? simon, what about you? i that's all right? simon, what about ou? , , ., , ., that's all right? simon, what about ou? ,, ., you? i spent the last two days with my 18-year-old. — you? i spent the last two days with my 18-year-old, he _ you? i spent the last two days with my 18-year-old, he was _ you? i spent the last two days with my 18-year-old, he was about - you? i spent the last two days with my 18-year-old, he was about to i my 18—year—old, he was about to finish her a—levels, looking at
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places in greece. what we were looking for is, can we refund this? that was the big issue. we are all doing our bit to boost the european economy this summer if we could possibly get to the mediterranean. my thanks to marc roche, stephanie baker and simonjack. that's it for dateline london for this week — we're back next week at the same time. goodbye. i hope you're well. we have high pressure nearby at the moment, and it's painting a settled picture across much of the uk. we have seen some sunshine this morning.
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we had a taster yesterday. we hang onto that theme for most for the next couple of days with some chilly nights to come. there is the area of high pressure across the uk. we have this weak front pushing into northern parts introducing thicker cloud, potentially some patchy rain into northern ireland and scotland. eventually into the north of england. much of england and wales and the north—east of scotland enjoying plenty of sunny spells through the afternoon, breezier along coastal parts, and temperatures reaching 12. this evening, the high pressure is still with us and that means it should remain mostly dry. it probably won't be as chilly as last night and we will see some mist and fog patches as well. you can see the remnants of the weak where the front affecting parts of northern ireland, the north of england and scotland. temperatures down to two or three celsius tonight. tomorrow morning will be quite grey
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and miserable for many as we see some mist and fog patches. hopefully, as we head through the afternoon, it will brighten up with some sunny spells on offer. a very quiet story once more. we will see those mist and fog patches but for the majority, again, sunny spells developing as we head through the day. i can't promise wall—to—wall blue sky — variable amounts of cloud once more. we may see the odd isolated shower into northern ireland, the north west of england and southern scotland. looking at the big picture, the high pressure is still there, so again it's a very quiet, settled weather story but we'll see some sunny spells this weekend but potentially less of that on monday with some low cloud, mist and fog which will stick around into the afternoon in central parts of england and wales. further north, it should be drier and brighter. towards the middle of the week, the high pressure is hanging on in there.
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we still have some weather fronts nearby, it is keeping those away. looking at the outlook for next week, it is very quiet with variable amounts of cloud overhead. as we look towards the end of next week, it looks like those temperatures may slide away. turning cooler but we'll keep you posted. see you soon.
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this is bbc news — these are the latest headlines in the uk and around the world. the us house of representatives passes presidentjoe biden's $1.9 trillion coronavirus aid bill. the uk chancellor plans new measures to help people buy their own homes as he prepares his budget for next week. ministers in england launch a campaign to reassure parents it's safe for children to return to the classroom. and more protests in myanmar where police are using rubber bullets and tear gas to disperse demonstrators. and coming up... a hero's farewell — preparations for the funeral of captain sir tom moore, the war veteran who raised tens of millions of pounds for the nhs.

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