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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  May 10, 2022 3:30am-4:01am AST

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access to waters having to make tough decisions about there will be with the income from your across the borders. we are looking at the evidence inept generating data to understand better. but what we have available indicated that the majority of people will move within their own countries in vicinity of the area where the are even the conditions ah mrs. al jazeera. and these are the top stories, anti government demonstrations and sri lanka have turned violent overnight despite a nighttime curfew and the resignation of the prime minister. my hinder raj, epoxy. there have been weeks of protests against worsening economic crisis. that he shall rush as president vladimir putin has told his forces there fighting for the motherland and its future in ukraine. he made the comments during victory day commemorations, marking the surrender of nazi germany to soviet troops in 1945 ukrainian president
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. volota. mayor zalinski says russia's actions are betrayal. victory, then you as president, joe biden has approved a new law to speed up the delivery of weapons and military equipment to ukraine by and signed off on the lend lease act saying washington supports the ukrainians fight to defend their country and democracy against putin's brutal war the u. s. is already given billions of dollars worth of weapons to ukraine. unofficial results from the philippines show ferdinand marco's junior is on track to become the next president. the 64 year old as the son of the president ousted inner revolution 36 years ago. florence louis is in manila. she says not every one is happy about the outcome of the election. a number, civil society organizations and students in manila are calling for a protest outside the building of the commission on election to protest against what they say is electro fraud. and there are also people who still remember what
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the, what life was like under the scene jamarcus rule. and they said that this victory by mock was uni, has only been made possible because fiction has been v packaged as facts. referring to a campaign of misinformation that they say aloud to them all cause junior campaign to win a fight between rival gangs at a prison in ecuador has left at least 44 people dead authority say they were all in made, said bella vista jail in santo domingo more than a 100, others escaped and remain at large. for students have been killed in bolivia, after a tear gas grenade was detonated during a university assembly, causing a stampede. 50 people were injured as panic. students tried to leave the assembly hall. those are the headlines. the news continues here in al jazeera, after inside story. ah,
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it's been the face of irish nationalism now for the 1st time, sion fain has won the largest number of seats in northern islands parliament. but what's behind this political shift and what does it mean for the future of the united kingdom? this is inside story. ah, how do there and welcome to the program. i'm the styles you pay. now the political landscape in northern ireland has changed for the 1st time, shin vein, which wants to unite. all of ireland has won the most seats in regional elections.
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there knots, put an end to a century of dominance by unionists which support the british crown and constitution. now both sides need to agree to form a new government. the democratic unionist party of traditionally the party with a majority wants to 1st address order trade agreements made off to break says the d u p says the current deal technically leaves it out of the united kingdom. the u. k . is know the not and secretary is edging a power sharing government as soon as possible and should feigns vice president says they're committed to make politics work today or sure is in a new era which i believe presents us all with an opportunity to reimagine relationships in this society on the basis of furnace on the basis of equality and on the basis of social justice, our respective or religious, political, or social backgrounds. my commitment is to make politics work. while champagne is the only political party active in both the republic of ireland and northern
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ireland, founded back in 19 o 5, it's made up of irish republicans and democratic socialists who believe in a united ireland without british rule or influence. it was once regarded as the political wing of the provisional irish republican army or the i r. a. in 1919 its original members founded a legislative body known as the 1st dale and declared irish independence. the u. k . outlaw the dale shortly after that. and since the 2003 elections, champagne has been the largest nationalist party in northern ireland and has remained committed to irish reunification. ah, oh, let's now bring in our guests in belfast, we have duncan. moreover, he is a professor of politics at all state university in brussels. nicholas white and international affairs strategist and senior director in brussels for app co. that's a public affairs and strategic consultancy. and in cambridge, gram judge and a research associate at the university of cambridge. and also
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a former special advisor to 1st minister david trimble and the northern ireland assembly a warm welcome to each of you. thank you so much for joining us gentlemen. now i want to start with why this is such a significant development. these are regional elections. polls like this don't necessarily always make the headlines of international news, but parties the port and nor the northern island really has potentially exec, existential consequences. here. so looking at the design of northern islands, very institutions, it was predicated on this idea that the outcome of this very protect protracted piece process. i'm curious, duncan, do you think the good friday agreement could have predicted this? well, in some sense of the good friday agreement is not lactose as duration in which people go for like an accident and nothing can happen to another lab. i think the presumption was that by this stage, the border issue would be would be much quieter. and there wouldn't be the same
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level of tension as we've seen. inflammation of that question again in the last 4 or 5 years, the bank the referendum. i think that this result is a complex one because at one level it doesn't change dental thing. they the balance the par at between the different groups. they haven't changed dramatically except that there's a much bigger group in the middle who belongs to. neither of them was there before . but what has happened is that in our situation where 2 groups have to be together in the top office, the 1st deputy 1st master at the the nomination test swap that used to be the union . us choose to take the 1st minister post and now it's and band and wars or that is interesting at both is and the fact that should fame can at least claim here is the party which exists to get rid of northern ireland is now is the largest party in northern ireland and the unionists they find themselves as the deputy but in real terms it doesn't actually make much difference as it looks symbolically. and we'll
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get to some of the practical implications in just a minute. but nicholas, i want to ask you because there is an enormous amount of symbolism here, the fact that the party that was once the political wing of the i r a is now in line to actually appoint the 1st minister. the fact that the 1st minister could be a catholic, did that play a part in driving vote? oh, clearly it made a very important difference to ship things campaign. the idea that though there was a chance that by voting for champagne, you could have a 1st minister from the national side. i think it was a very strongly motivation factor. and in fact, i think the u. p made a mistake here because they tried to campaign against us under i think the term national focus perhaps felt more strongly about it than the do you please own target voters? because the to you please vote went down and change things went up. but we also had to be bear in mind that there's comparative aspects here. a score 100 for years has been run by the scottish national party who's, whose job is to,
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to break up the notion, kingdom creation, independence, daughter states. they still haven't succeeded in doing it for the house of season governing scope. graham, i'll bring you in here because as nicholas alluded to, their vote for the d. u. p. used to be a vote to camp, keeps and fan out of government. now we've seen this huge shift in the political landscape, a huge growth. and as we were saying earlier in the center, i see the alliance party 117 seats. so that's up from 8 in 2017 and 13.5 percent of 1st preference votes. are we in a sense, seeing a normalization of irish politics did to a slight extent, i think, but we shouldn't take saturation with a line getting 30 sent. and we don't know that this is really a long term trend. alliance tends to be a party, gets protest, boats from people who are temporarily disaffected from the main parties. so it may be a physical thing, but or it may be a long, long, long term structural change or other suspect that the case i think are quite
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a lot of young professionals. both catholic and protestant, didn't know, not to do. it just gets fed up what they say is the making parties bargaining on either about staying in the union or irish unity they took, rather if they would concentrate on the person. but your issues. actually people are young families and they're interested education. they're interested in health and health issues. so just so i said that's happening that we shouldn't forget. no that and politics is basically a 0 sum game, not on the other stays in the united kingdom or, or joins republic of ireland. it's one of the other a come to both company the. ready days and the irish republic that we can so or something about so. so the, the alliance is position. it's not really a very strong fundamental lot, but it's a 2nd factory. quite nice place phone, number line voters who don't want to see themselves is extreme. it's to, to be
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a so let me throw that back to then nicholas jerry think, given the change that we're seeing in the electorate here move towards the middle is best to move away then from sectarianism is of course, the results of that is that the sectarian parties the represents unity. so nationalists than themselves become somewhat more r line. but anecdotally, the, the growth and the center ground has been latent for a long time. many people endorse hardened or in mixed relationships their, their spouse or their partner is from the other tradition to them. and the traditional parties don't have anything to offer families in that situation. and in particular, they don't have anything to offer the children of parents who are from different traditions. and that's been a very much a growing part of the community. it's certainly not majority, but it's a growing part. up until recently those people would probably know some folks to school and now they are voting on their voting for the loans party to
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a much lesser extent for over centrist portions and data. the other thing is the situation that the framework where you started your very 1st question must, as it was about whether the structures of the good friday agreement or robust enough to accept this sort of this, this change a paradigm. i think that's a very good question. on i don't think we have the answer. oh, duncan, you alluded there to the fact that since and, and actually, and make huge gains, stay there. so the right way is any littleton game, any states, but what really led to the outcome? the only thing with that will declines the d u p. in your mind, what's actually led to that? well, i think there's a couple of things going on here. i mean, certainly my impression from about is about among under, for keith. the issue, the issues have changed when i was growing up, there was a much clearer lying between if you like and pain, who are associated with the re,
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the constitutional parties. i think for people under 40, i really noticed not just that they come from relationships that go across the divide. but the key issues have turned into social issues such as gay marriage, such as green shoes and so on. and many way they, you know, are with them that they've had to use a special mechanism in our parliament to veto things on those kinds of issues. and i think that i've been underestimated as a driver for younger voters and to what might be called the alliance position. and just one other thing to say there is, i think that group paypal, her voting factor. now, we're actually comfortable with some of the outcomes of, of the good friday agreement. in other words, open borders in all directions. and they were really driven the real velocity. and the sampras boat has happened absolutely, in my view, connected to the consequences of the choices around hard borders. and i'm very
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strong preference in that group to try and keep borders open as far as possible. well let's then talk about breakfast i see in the assembly elections and may 2060 and that was just a month before the breaks that referendum. the d. p took 29 percent of the vote and this time and got 21 percent. and of course, when the u. k, left the e u, it took northern ireland. whether i want to take a look at the practical invitations of that now that led to the creation of the northern ireland protocol, which allows trucks to deliver goods without porter checks. when they cross from northern ireland into the republic of island, which remains in you, it was agreed that inspections would take place between northern ireland and men on britain. but could saying that effectively creates a new trade border in the iris t and you dentist insist that undermines more than islands place within the u. k. the protocol also protects the 1998 good friday agreement which includes the sensitive issue of removing all visible signs. of a border between northern ireland and the republic of ireland. now gran in your
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mind, how much at breakfast and the northern island protocol actually affect the outcome of this election? well, it has affected it saying that the protocol is an issue and its ticket issue with a, with the unit is parties very much opposed having an internal customs both within the united kingdom. it's hard to think of any other country since we've got an internal customs border salt. this is a very unusual position and of course they say that's a step in the direction of a united ireland. so we concern position and he's undermines the good friday agreement. contract agreement was based on the idea that both sides with double check, they can stop radical changes proposed by the other side. what happened here is the, it was coming with a protocol and driven the what david trimble calls and coaching policies to the good friday agreement by not allowing that check mechanism evening. full years
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time form of check isn't that the protocol is affecting it, but it's important, i think has duncan was suggesting it don't come are. it's just the beginning that the election results here are very much of a change in trying to become the largest part and not because it's got any extra votes. but because the d u p is shad folks to an even more pro union party that they chose, you know, as far as the t v. i got those folks together from backups to, to ship things from. so that's a bit of a bit of fragmentation of the vote, some of the union side. and even that doesn't matter too much, you know, p r type collection that we, we have in northern ireland. so not so much has changed over excitement about this in the international international. but i think duncan went suggestion the changes
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in the selection of or rather marginal, still though and looking at a potential protracted stalemate. as i understand that the northern ireland secretary is installment meeting the pass. he is and there's huge disagreement about the protocol as he members of the u. p. holding strong saying things like either the secretary of state, once an executive or a protocol, he can have both the county refusing to nominate ministers to the executive. and i see there's already been a threat from the british home secretary about trying to fix the protocol. nicholas after 6 years of trying, they haven't managed to fix the protocol. so what are the chances of actually finding something acceptable? now, do you think, you know, we have 2 different fact. we have 2 different political dynamics here which are interacting very on. hopefully, the 1st is frankly, the needs of the british government to find a reason to fight with the you. and the protocol is as far as i can tell, sitting in the, in brussels being used purely artificially for that purpose. the landing zone, diplomatically for the protocol,
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was very clear. it's been quite clearly laid out. and in discussions between both sides, 6 months ago, longer perhaps or so the fact that no agreement as yet be reached is quite simply a political choice by british diplomats british officials during the negotiations. so that's one side of it. the other side of it is the effect on north mars pose x. and here i, i really do have to disagree with with graham. i'm afraid. i think the, the election results of every significance. i think the fall in support for the d. u. p is precisely because they did not do a good job of politics around the protocol. they had the possibility to bring in a better agreements that which to resume negotiated. instead, they chose the torpedoes. and to trust boris johnson, who then came up with the protocol that they now say they don't like. and it's true, of course, to do the vote was which went to the to you read the more hard line to be that it's an antique protocol, wrote the t v. we're only able to that one member after lunch in the assembly
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despite guessing quite alone. quite a lot of folks. nobody likes this position. nobody is going to transfer, builds to it. so i think it's, it's proved rather of abuser, for the g u. p. it's been a series of mistakes, and this is the latest of them. and i think it's a real mistake to hold hostage the formation of the government of northern ireland over the issue of the protocol, which is an issue that the government of northern ireland actually has no formal influence over duncan. now being you, any, i see you nodding, i'm curious as well. if you think this is going to potentially fairly conflict not only in northern ireland but also and between westminster in brussels. well, never really well. and i think that that conflict over the protocol has been an over breakfast of been late since the bracket rep random. the bottom line is that at united kingdom, italy, but northern ireland voted to remain offense then that growth in the sampras vote have been very much a group of people who want to retain
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a relationship with the. with the i noticed last in the paper this week at the, for the 1st time ever and 2020, there were more applications for irish passports in northern they were for british passport. i think a lot to do with retaining right move within the youth. and i do think that one of the lines and politics that have the marriage between the, this new group of unionism around the issue of the protocol, i, we, how it's going to be resolved is very, very difficult. is that because that, as he said, there are 2 issues interacting here, that diplomatic level where it's negotiated, but also the way in which it suggests that there's a nomic and northern islands, which is now playing a play in the fact that we may not have a government for months and then grandma let you respond to both of those. thanks very much. i mean it's, nick is his points. i think we're chris standard brussels position in
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a way we can transfer to stand by him why he's making those points. but he's ridiculous to say that the u. k. government is looking for a reason to oppose or upset brussels. the u. k. government would like nothing more than to have this problem of their hands. but of course, they can't ignore it, because now the units are in a position to say, look, either you have a good friday agreement and it's, it's situations exactly and north south, a surface situations. all you have to protocol, but you're not getting both. so you can, government has to do something about that. what it looks like they're choosing to do is they're, they're already working on legislation to hand power over the protocol to u. k. ministers. so you came in, this is, will then be able to override it. this will lead to around with the a you can see we're showing no flexibility. we, you did here with exploited a period where if i may continue, the you exploited
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a period of great political weakness and division within the u. k. to come up with a solution with which was with which nationalists in ohio were completely happy and units were completely unhappy and in the situation, although you just can't get away with that, it's unsustainable. and therefore, the protocol has to change whether brussels likes it or not, and you can go ahead the difficulties, right? the programs to national agree with them is that actually this election confirmed that the majority in northern ireland, quite quite scantily, are in favor of retaining the protocol. and if there was a vote in the family, it will be, it would be a majority vote. i do think there is a problem, but it's not shared across the community and what could be done there. the difficulty being that the form of practice that bars johnston at chose also had no cross community support. and the options which might have had across committees for were removed during the negotiations,
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who are kind of unraveling the wheel here. i suspect that the resonance invention, which causes an a thing like a trade war between europe and union or anything to disrupt the open border and the size of items that will actually cause more problems rather than last. so i'll be interested to see how it goes on, but i think to suggest that this wouldn't have wider diplomatic consequences for the u. k. with america and europe is, would be a mistake. and i asked why i think that while they say that they constantly, the government says it will bring legislation, but it doesn't actually do so while a number of countries already come out asking for a power sharing government to be put together as soon as possible. and i want to take a bit of a step back here because we are in a stalemate. and i want to clarify something for you is that maybe a little misleading. we have this 1st minister position and a deputy 1st minister position, but they are essentially equal position. so there is no government unless the european should fan actually agree. now that all looks fairly tenuous at the moment
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. i see they have something like 6 months to agree on something. i mean, what happens if that doesn't actually work out? nicholas of the legal position is clear that there will be another election. the political position, of course, is much less clear if it's not possible to put together a government north, norland, because one of the parties has got a completely detached reason for not wanting to go in. then that raises questions about whether the devolved institutions, the regional governments, structures established by the good friday agreement can be sustained. i think it's very dangerous for the d, u p to do that from their own perspective. because the alternative to having a devolved government is going to be continued through directly from london with strong inputs from dublin. and as is precisely the situation that was set up in 1985 under the, under our agreement with the g p fund, intolerable. now they appear to be working to bring us about again,
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it's very strange. well, there's also been plenty of talk about potential reunification obviously since and has been very vocal on that. graham, can i ask you then how likely do you think a, a united ireland is because despise all the speculation we've had? i did get the sense that and where quite a long way from enough support for me. like that was quite right. we were off a long way post a lot, so how much support is for united? decide and all the time and i mean pulse is showing difference. it said 25 percent in fact. but i think if we say probably 30 percent support where we're not far wrong. therefore if the water board uphold the pro union pro, you stay in the u. k. faction would win by, by market of to, to wall. and for that reason, of course, shouldn't change coal turn press for both the poli, mediately, but talking talking about the board perhaps within about 5 years. but this is only
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5 years in 5 years, it'll be, they'll still be calling for it within 5 years because they just can't get the majority for it. i don't want to end the discussion without asking a question, which i know some of our viewers may be wondering, given the history of island. and what's happened on the island. duncan, i have to ask, is there any kind of a risk of a return to medicine that you think part of the issue is it can never be totally ruled out and there's always, there are out on the side, i have to say one thing i would say is that there is no support for us. there is absolutely clear that none of the parties have gone down the road of suggesting that there should be any support for us or staff, you know, copiers support for it, but we also know as that's not always where it comes from. it sometimes comes from the develop a way to start something people respond to and then escalates up. so i would say that it's not something that i think we should overly fear. and on the other side,
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the difficulty is a simply because there are people who are always, always agitating for that kind of thing. well, we'll keep an eye on how this all plays out, especially in the next 6 months or so. in the meantime, no thanks to all of our guests. duncan, martin, nicholas white and graham garden, and thank you to for watching. remember, you can see this program again any time by visiting our website that's al jazeera dot com. and to further discussion do go to my facebook page, and that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can also join the conversation on twitter. handle is at a inside story. for me in a start the day and the whole team here and uh huh. bye. ah,
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with from the al jazeera london broker sent it to people in thoughtful conversation with no host and no limitation of the artist by nature. they are person who are most party left i way way and denise to paul society is not interested in the individuality, the freedom, the spirit of the young person studio b. unspent dates on alex's era. on may, 15th 11 on we'll hold that 1st parliamentary elections since the country went into economic collapse in 2019 political and security pensions are running high with many lebanese desperately wanting change and new leadership. but well,
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do that because to see a busy pricing, the planets on al jazeera, we understand the differences and similarities of culture across the world center might have when you call home will. but you can use in current affairs that matter to years. ah, i'm how much of german doha. these are the top stories on al jazeera, anti government demonstrations, and sri lanka have turned violent just as prime minister. my hinder was a pox, a bound to public pressure to resign. 5 people, including a member of parliament, have died a nation wide curfew is underway. no fernandez reports from columbus. ah, a powder keg of anger, frustration, and helplessness among she lincoln's. there's been months of discontent over any.

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