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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  January 9, 2022 6:30am-7:01am AST

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look at in for red light, and so that's like the portion of the electromagnetic spectrum that we feel as heat . and so stars and galaxies, planets whenever they form are very, very hot. so the telescope is going to look for those heat signatures. as far back, you know, as a 100000000 years after the big bang, which is incredible. so we could not only see some of the 1st stars and galaxies, but it can also do things as sniff out x o planet atmospheres to see what kinds of chemicals are in there. maybe even to find, you know, other habitable, habitable planets out in the universe. ah, is out there on these, the top stories of ours isn't cause exxon a confirm. the rest of former secures, he serves as chief carry muscle. he's been charged with high treason for his
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alleged role in anti government process. this week. the arrest is fueling speculation of a power struggle in the ruling party. robin forest walker has more on what's behind nearest his departure today. really cements this idea that cause him you're much so kind of the president and capstone is, is purging the government. this system, the elite, of all those figures who owed allegiance to the former president nozzle turned as a by that it's really quite an extraordinary picture. and it difficult to explain in a nick, but inside an enigma why this would, would have happened. but this really explains the dog nature of cassock, politics, internal politics. the bodies of knowing victims of a snow storm in pakistan have been brought to a slow log and he's 22 people have died off to temperatures, fell to minus 8 degrees celsius overnight on friday. and the number of people in the hospital in the us with coven 19, is rising driven by the only kron variance. it includes more children under the age
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of 5. a group not yet eligible to be vaccinated. and thousands of people protested in the french capital against the government moved to tighten restrictions on unvaccinated people. a proposed vaccine pass would only allow those who have had the job to enter public places. if the bill is passed by parliament, is expected to go into effect next saturday. and hundreds of people have protested in the italian city of turin against rules that makes it vaccines mandatory for any one over the age of 50. so for laws are also coming into force of unvaccinated people and at least 7 people have been killed in lake furnace in brazil, when a slab of rock broke off a cliff falling on nearby boats. the miner's curious 5 departments as more than 30 people were injured and for a still missing those that headlines. news continues, hey, on our desert. roaming is one of the most accessible sports in the world else's
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era correspondent tandy richardson takes us on his personal journey of discovery. when you find yourself out in the middle of my lap and run his hurting. why should not just stop exploring the growing popularity in science? he pushes the limit from kenya to the antarctic. in search of answers to why we run al jazeera correspondence. ah, i hello, i'm darn jordan. this is counting the cost on al jazeera, your weekly look at the world of business and economics. this week, 2021 a year of economic recovery, but also a year of supply chain bottlenecks, soaring inflation and armstrong. so would it be a bumpy road in the next 12 months,
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or will it be a year of progress? also this week a downturn in the property sector and energy supply crunch and subdued. consumption . john is economy ground to a whole towards the end of 2021 critique. say it could hit a great move. so when it too big to be ignored by the financial establishment crypto currencies of hit 3 trillion dollars in value and are now becoming mainstream. will the virtual money see a big year again in 2022. now, mass vaccinations progress and antiviral drugs and eased restrictions. 2021 has proved am opportunity for many countries to reverse economic losses caused by the pandemic. but opening up businesses and going back to normal life has brought new bras, setbacks to such as the rising cost of living. despite the challenges, hopes are running high for the new year until the army kron variant and access to vaccines. change the calculus once again. so wants to come in 2022. we'll let's
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have a look 1st at what define 2021 from china. the wells factory to the biggest port in california ships queued at harbors. overwhelmed with the rise in demand supply chains tightened. either because of the shortage of goods or people to deliver them . natural gas, oil, and other fuel markets was squeezed. driving an energy crisis, particularly in europe, eating homes and driving cars became very costly. with that came soaring inflation, that's curbing the purchasing power of people on low wages. the u. s. has seen its worst monthly inflation numbers. and almost 40 years, many governments have been scratching their heads of a monetary policies to tackle the problems among the options up raising interest rates and winding down stimulus packages. well for china, it was not just a problem of supply chains and the energy crunch. it's property sector is at risk to with real estate giant ever grand. on the verge of collapse,
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china's economic growth weakened in the 3rd quarter of 2021 president, she shing things critic say new rules to control the amount owed by big real estate developers. the crackdown on tech companies and celebrities at proven costly for the economy. well, china and other countries also busy trying to tame crypto currencies, while pushing plans to issued their own digital coins. meanwhile, bitcoin and others were going big, even with a volatile market. the virtual current system hit 3 trillion dollars, and most importantly, they've gone mainstream with many international investors, embracing them. so there's lots to unpack with a panel of experts from london below how fees micro hi, chief executive from the town. i've been out. medina, pueblo in spain, him and blanco research director and had a risk insights. america at various maple craft and from hong kong, russia decide, fund manager at asia frontier capitol, welcome to the program. let me start with you. if i may, i mean, i'm, it,
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chrome seems to be the buzzword at the moment. do you think governments are reacting to every twist and turn of the pandemic can all be going to see more adaptation policies as the pandemic changes? well, i do think governments are reacting very dynamically around be on the kron variant . and it's interesting that different countries are responding differently. so for example, what we have seen is in continental europe, a government to be very aggressive and introduced lockdown measures, requirements vaccine, passports, and then use the u. k. on the other hand, initially was fairly relaxed. and as the, the cases have gone up, they've started to introduce more aggressive measures. then on the other side, you have the u. s, which essentially is minimizing the risk off on the cross and not really introducing any additional measures beyond recommendations to have the bank seen. so we often governance response, but it varies depending which part of the world that we're in. yeah, him and what about latin america? how is the pandemic impacting economies there?
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do you think? well, i mean, i think with latin america, there's very few tools left to be used tried because the region responded in such a draconian manner during 2020 and early 2021. that actually implementing many of the same measures that western europe is, is taking, would be socially, economically and politically very difficult. i mean, economically, the region was the hardest hit of any region in the world and recovery prospects are slimming down. so if we think about, you know, some economies will return to pre plan that make g d p levels in 2023. but that's the best case scenario. we have economies that are looking at a potential another last decade. so that has huge social impacts. governments aren't able to dictate quarantine and school closures, like they did in 2020. and also we have crucial elections in 2022 with some of the,
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the biggest democracies in the region going to the paul's. so thinking about how pandemic measures can impact incumbents or traditional politically leads is clearly front and center of any government. the session. the region does have one advantage at the moment, which is south america is in, in the southern hemisphere, summer. so cases are lower and age and rates are lower than they were in the north and russia. what, what's the full cost them for growth in asia. i mean, will on the chrome have more impact there as countries like south korea, for instance, impose tighter pandemic restrictions when, if you can most of the developing markets initially much. marcus. an issue. i think with respect to the band and majority of the all the convert into a future variance, i think most of the governments in the region have basically decided to live with the widest. given the fact that in our end to be a rental authority off the of the vendor makes you have any strict restrictions and doesn't get on. so for large budget doesn't 21 of those little logical because
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across across markets in asia, for example, india and vietnam and thailand as well. and at the same time you for vaccination rates of increase significantly across pretty much most countries in the world. for example, the entire exhibition of population of 2 percent. so that actually has been the open of the gone business situation much better. so as long as in horse prospect, vision levels under control and things are not, you know, as bad as what they want those and when do you want the dividend of it? and i think most economies will manage situation. they won't be locked on on a large scale because the common cause. busy they do, i so i think we'll see pretty strong regarding 2022 of almost markets in emerging markets. an issue. so below the big issue in 2021. our supply chain backlogs, and labor shortages has on the chrome. do you think not the supply chain back on its heels and what's going to happen to consumer prices and wages for 2022? absolutely, supply chain issues are probably front incentives. one of the biggest issues, and i think on the con, will have an impact on the supply chain. that said,
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i don't think the effect will be as large as it was when we have a delta wave. i think manufacturing companies and factories of adapted to big increases in the covariance and so on. but nevertheless, as we do have restrictions in multiple countries, they'll be restrictions at ports and so on. that at the margin will have an impact on the supply chain as a whole. i'd also add that china itself tends to be a bit more aggressive in dealing with outbreaks off cove it. so if china was to lock down ports or cities associated with the important factories, and that will have an impact on the supply chain. so yes, it will have an impact on the supply chain, but not as much as it did before. yeah, russia, let's just stay with china because china's economy bounce back from the pandemic in 2020 but it weakened in the 3rd quarter of 2021. what do you think went wrong with china and what risks does it face in the year ahead? do you think a couple of fact of the china so that you can actually mentioned the handle of the
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enemy pretty well in 2020 and a stronger cover doesn't 20 as well in 2021. you know, given the fact that china has pretty much as you know, with a policy in terms of, you know, keeping, with cases extremely low of, i know what the large number of cases or breaks the obviously i don't, you don't exempt infect. she's all sorts of hassle. she was in place, which really impacted growth this year as well as if you look at retail. says the white being pretty much across the board to serve both of these institutions that have been in place. and also of course, if you look at some of the other developments in china and speak with the tech, don't just have been with us almost one year now, which affected the world and sentiment in china and also other sectors. like, for example, i was just in construction, the government has gone on pretty hard on that goes with the spectrum, kind of is also affecting the auto g people because the, those, it is a large part of the economy in china. so these are some of the headwind to face this year. but i think if you look at, in general, you know, just the size, the trying to call me this is a psychological and being over, you know,
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as the transitions of a strong high growth. busy infrastructure lead model. busy into him also is lash consumption model. there will be some or a long delay. but that does not mean that your child is going to see a significant slowed on very on the war into a global economy, common depression. because i think if you look at extra expectations for growth, about 5 percent for the next couple of years, i think that's where he's the bill for the sales manager, call me him. and let me ask you a question about china. i mean, could china's economic worries be beneficial? do you think to smaller economies? because cobra 19 indeed has highlighted the risk of concentrating supply chains in china, hasn't it? of course. and i mean, latin america has a huge role to play for potential near shoring for us manufacturers. right. and that was the buzzword since the beginning of the pandemic, right? could companies relocate to the region, but that doesn't come, you know, without its own challenges around logistical infrastructure,
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around human rights issues, which are also prevalent in latin america and around the cost of doing business in the region and the bureaucracy and overcoming some of those country risks of investing in latin america. so of course there's, you know, a strong emphasis from words and governments, particularly those with very close commercial links to the united states and with existing manufacturing infrastructure to increase on that. but this will be a very uneven development in terms of which countries from benefits or not from near assuring as a result of the supply chain disruption. yeah, i believe so. let's talk about the u. s. then because president biden is facing the highest inflation levels and around for 2 years or so, will the fed be able to bring rates down the how can i quickly do that? well indeed, present button has face the big inflation challenge. and unlike previous instances, i do think the administration, the bargaining ministration has been partly responsible for, for the high inflation rate. but we are seeing in the u. s. and i think the central
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bank only has a limited role or, or less been impacted with it, as one would think on the level of inflation. because as we talked about earlier, supply chain issues are one of the biggest issues in causing inflation. and what caused the supply chain issues partly was to do with the fiscal stimulus that the president might biden. and his administration implemented over the course of 2021, which led to a huge increase in demand for consumer goods at a time when the supply issues, then some way these policies were big contributing factors towards inflation rather than interest rates by the fed. so i think more more supply chain issues will be the key to for coughing, inflation of the course of 2022 rather than what the central bank does. ok. and so here's a, how could interest rates then affect emerging markets and how would they deal of debt, especially when we could see a sharp rise in the cost of capital? yes, absolutely. i mean, we're already seeing it with, you know,
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expectations of us rate hikes, impacting currencies across latin america with significant falls on on currencies. and the reality is that central banks in the region have also a very limited toolbox because of the size of the, you know, of them off the books economy in the region. so even when they had taught monetary tools to try to contain inflation or to protect their own currencies, those only have limited impact. and i think, you know, the supply chain disruptions that we're talking about here in the law mention also impacted latin america feeding into inflation. not only because of the expansionary measures that most central banks took during the initial response to the pandemic. but also because it was very hard to maintain logistical rocha into the region. russia, let me bring you in quickly here. just a, just a thought on china again because china says it will focus on stabilizing its
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economy for 2022. can it's a cheap that or would it struggle to achieve any sort of meaningful economic growth for 20? $22.00. well, absolutely. i mean, if you look at all the economic indicators they've been, you know, showing us stored on or the last couple of quarters. and even the, you know, some of the comments made by policy makers have been that they'll be for fiscal and monetary policy support. busy you know, sort of go to can 1022. and also if you, if you remember that, you know, china went through the end of the, going to pretty strong for the, an annual appendix and everybody, well, so they didn't really have to come up with any major fiscal amante's, or it doesn't 20 compared to some of the logic, one reason like the u. s. of the u. k. so that they have enough room droids on board modernity and also kind of space to support both in 2022 and bill are let's bring it back in here because you're in london's, let's talk about the situation in europe. inflation. is it not? it's, it's, it's challenging european central banks. could we say governments then perhaps winding down this stimulus packages?
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i think we will. and if we take the euro area in the c b as essentially be did have its own cubic program, like we've seen around the world. it's called path, and that's likely to be wound down by february or march of 2022. but they're likely to extend that q program into by expanding another q program. they have called the asset purchase program, 80 p. and at the same time, it's very unlikely that e, c, b will raise interest rates unlike the fed. and the reason for that is the c, b has been scarred in the past by raising interest rates when inflation has spite of the back of supply chain issues. so, so i think europe does have an inflation problem. it's partly to do the global supply chain issues. it's partly to do with high oil prices, but i don't think the c b will respond as aggressively as other central banks. i'm him about many latin american central banks followed brazil and increase their test rates. what are the risks involved briefly to the region by raising rates? and i mean, how can government protect the occurrences? well, i mean the, the key risk is,
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is actually that governments are reacting very quickly, but they may be unable to use rates just to contain inflation. and we're looking at record levels of inflation in over a decade in most of the large economies. and i would say in terms of, you know, protecting the currency again, very limited tool box and major economies. i would watch brazil in 2022 simply because the, the got the countries heading into a general election with high inflation rates, potential for discontent. and of course, the rail having had a turbulent 2021. so i think that's the market to watch in terms of currency. so, so let's just move the discussion on to big tech bill. i'll, let's bring your back in here because china has pretty much tamed it's tech giants like alibaba and dd but western tech companies like facebook and google for instance, are still fighting with the regulators. aren't they?
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will 2022. do you think c, western tech giants coming to more regulatory pressure? do you think? i do think there will be much more regulatory pressure from especially the west and also the europeans against tech companies. to some extent, will the chinese have done against loss. tech companies is what many people, many critics of tech companies, what the us to do. so the chinese have tamed many chinese tech companies in terms of how the whole day when so on. the difference though, in the case of the u. s. is that the tech genes are very powerful and they have very large market cap. they're very influential, politically. and in some, some extent they're viewed as examples of the u. s. success story. so while i think the u. s. will try to tame them. it will be very hard for them to actually implement regulations that will curtail their ability to expand at businesses the europeans will need the hand, i think will continue to implement policies are local, i to constrain tech companies unforeseen. let's talk to you now about renewable
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energy because the rest of the world is starting to make the shift to renewables and that's much harder. is it not for developing nations who don't have the money? they haven't got the technology. what kind of progress you think we'll see in climate policies to help poor countries do think? i think if you look at, you know, delving markets and he showed his father and i mean the, i'm going to and some movie in energy projects for example single investing in no wind power. busy and in also follow doesn't only days because like you mentioned, the cost more to transition from or socialism to energy is quite high for many of these countries. so yes, there's an as initiative but it doesn't take time at the same time. if you keep in mind that many was gone, is a bring by 6 percent the same percent every year annually boss pandemic. also, they were to buy a lot of the same dam. i know for them putting up, you know, a whole lot of land is obviously much cheaper and makes much more economic sense. and the st of either the same time is investing in doing energy. so yes, it'll take some time. but then we make making the only moves and also for example, electric vehicles. i mean that's a big team in the restaurant on china,
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but also other in other parts of asia. for example, in del. busy on the southeast asia, so he doesn't go to the again the cost the cost involved. busy to transition to these old energy him and the other big story, of course, is crypto currencies. they've had a big year. we saw el salvador become the 1st country to adopt bitcoin as legal, tender. let me ask you, are crypto coming, sees an opportunity or a danger for latin america? you think? i think it provides an opportunity for countries, governments that want to use them with a politically motivated goal. and i think that's, you know, we're seeing that clearly without salvatore. we have seen other moves in the region with intentions to adopt the cryptic currencies to avoid transactions in us dollars . and of course, you know, i think this is very much linked to the political changes that seeing in the region and the return of governments that are potentially trying to use, you know, the us china competition to move away from us influence. and so i think that
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is that will be key and determining how crypt currencies behave in latin american, the future, it will be ideologically motivated. yeah, and bill, our regulators have been trying to re encrypt, so we're looking to launch their own centralized digital currencies. tech companies like amazon and facebook are talking about launching their own virtual occurrences . how do you think briefly this 3 way fight will play out in 20? 22. i think if we step back for moment crypto markets have become much larger and much more st. polish, so i think to some extent the genie is out of 3rd bottle now and we'll see, you know, a growth in all of these markets quite aggressively. i do think that the, the crypto market themselves outside of los private companies will probably end up doing the best to some extent they'll see the fastest growth. i think they'll be big regulatory challenges against large tech companies like facebook, launching their own currencies. and that's a central banks, i think just the nature of central banks who tend to be quite cautious. they'll
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have review launching their own digital currencies, but i think they'll take a lot longer to actually implement them. and instead it will be smaller countries, whether it's in latin america, others that will probably be the pioneers of launching central bank, digital digital currencies. russia, in terms of the growth in the digital economy. what are the opportunities then asian countries and will it benefit from a shift in supply chains? do you think those of the, you know, digital economy or the shippers, the digital combination countries, you know, also try and i think the opportunities use because the, the base is so small, i mean, the generation levels and the smartphone, but it was only increasing in many market like in germany, a philippines, indonesia. so is there a lot, is that going from? so i think opportunity is used for many of the slot is also many of these markets. so economies of any cash buyers and the, and the band. and because obviously change because you know, the last for me and you know, 24 months as you can see more, you know, more consumer is issued. the door language is, is, are doing many of the transitions online. so i think is a massive opportunity for many asian countries on to the extent of georgia sector
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and also from the supply chain distribution perspective. i think that's a big t boned so that his father will because that only that began much before the banner began. that's only was when you can actually read going forward as well. let me, let me get a final quick thought from all of you before we wrap things up. and bill our, let me ask you, does the road to global economic recovery start with equal access to vaccines? and i'll be looking at economic bloom or doom for 2022. well, i do agree, i do think vaccines hold a key to managing or ending the pandemic and equal access will be critical. because as we've seen over 2021 variance emerging all sorts of countries that if they don't have the vaccine themselves, will end up spreading to richer countries. so i do think, you know, vaccine equality will be key to, to dealing with a pandemic in terms of doom and gloom for the economy. i do think 2022 will be a very challenging yeah. for, for growth, we're going to be seeing the fed raising interest rates. i think, i think it has lots of challenges on its growth model. so i think it will be more
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on the, on the downside risk side, him not very quickly, equal access to vaccines. is that the key as bell is saying, and i'm looking at bloom or do for 2022. i think absolutely equal access to that scene. is crucial and not just in terms of countries, but regionally with those countries that in america, having major challenges geographically getting to most at risk populations in terms of the economy for the region. i think it's more of a blue be picture with the expectations we had in 2020 while actually not being bad at the region, struggling to return to growth. so russia, i'll leave you with the final thought, then is it blue modem for 2022 and is access to vaccines. the key here for economic recovery with respect to actually, and i think this problem, especially emerging market station vaccine exits increased significantly over the last line of months. so you will see that extension is increase quite significantly
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pretty much across the board in the silver should actually have become. busy an issue in 2022. so he has other concerns about inflation of fundraising rates. is that something that should be known for quite some time now? so i don't see any significant issue of growth if you ones coming off a pretty low is going to be a pretty strong growth issue at all. well, we have to leave it there. that's all we have time for. thank you to all our guests below have fees him in a blanco and decide thank you very much indeed for your time. and that's it for all show this week. but remember, you can get in touch with us via twitter. use the hashtag a j c t c. when you do or drop us an email counting the cost of al jazeera dot net is our address. but there's more for you on line of al jazeera dot com slash ctc. that'll take you straight to a page, which has individual reports, links, an entire episodes for you to catch up on. and that's it for this edition of counting the cost. i'm darn jordan from the whole team here. thanks for joining us . the news and al jazeera is next
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frank assessments, this crisis is continued to weaken luca shenker, even though perhaps he believed in the beginning of this thank for for informed opinions. i think politicians will now be under incredible pressure from the young people. that is one of the most hopeful things to come out of this critical debate . do you think that they should be facilitated? not sure. okay, it's a great, it's a really simple question. let's give samuel chop swanson. inside story on al jazeera al jazeera sets the stage, lots of women carrying very young children. this one, for example, is only a month and a half global experts and discussion. tell her something about the impact on the climate change is having on the fall is that you work with voices from different corners. when the wells are empty, people fight for programs that open your eyes to a low, tentative view. i then have collage. i have my voice on al jazeera,
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al jazeera, with off to days of anti government protest, kalsich stone's foam intelligence chief is arrested on suspicion of treason. ah ha mon, carla, this is all zera life and death also coming up had a strike in ethiopia. t gray region hits a camp. i internally displaced killing at least 56 people. 22 people have died in northern pock hassan off to being trapped in that cause in heavy snug.


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