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tv   [untitled]    November 25, 2021 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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feel safe neither to the client's crime robin 1st year walker by al jazeera stroke . now the pentagon has formed a new task force to investigate new f o sightings. the ribs job is to identify unexplained aerial phenomena and then determine whether they pose a threat and comes after the u. s. government released a report back in june, noting a 144 sightings of mysterious flying objects. ah, hello there. this is al jazeera and these are the headlines. al jazeera has obtained satellite images that show the united arab emirates is providing military support to the ethiopian army. the investigation revealed the u. a. he hired to private companies from europe to run military flights into ethiopia. in sudan rallies had begun to honor those killed during protests, against a military taker, everlast. lumped demonstrations are taking place in the capitol, car, 2 men,
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other cities, at least 41 people were killed in the violence, but security forces deny using live fire on protesters in somalia, a bomb attack has killed at least 5 people in the capitol, mogadishu, and reported to have targeted a convoy of african union mission vehicles, australia says that sending troops to the solomon islands to help restore order as the country faces a 2nd day of rioting. the protesters want the prime minister to quit saying the government has neglected their island. sarah clark has more from brisbin. astrology is decided to send troops announced that 20 troops as a small number, but they are hitting to from towns will in queensland where i am to honey our. as we speak and we got another group of but food, you're hitting there on friday. and this is to be to monitor the situation and do what the prime minister said is to try to store stability and security on the ground and a prime minister that he wants at the strain trip at the help the police. he's also
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now he's spoken to the prime minister of p g as was puffing, getting so it's a bullet health situation. at least 27 people round off the coast to france after their boat capsized refugees and migrants trying to reach the u. k. and the last is also in recent years for migrants attempting that crossing. at least 11 people have been killed after a fire broke out in a mine in russia, siberia region, emergency services rescued. more than 200 people who trapped a rescue operation to find other survivors has been suspended that due to fears of an explosion. japanese corona virus. death toll is officially past 100000, was already recorded 351 death. in the past 24 hours, hospitals are rapidly fitting up across the country. some have even asked for help from other states. well, next up, it's inside story ah,
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fuel prices and inflation, a locating in the us, the presidents ordered millions of barrels of oil to be released from the country's strategic reserves. is that gonna make a difference? or is it just a bid to boost his all in approval ratings? are several other companies joining in this is in say story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm rob matheson, it's a rare move that president joe biden hope's will help ease us petrol. prices and reduce inflation that's had
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a 31 year high. he's tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve. 50000000 barrels of oil are being released and that's roughly what the u. s. uses in 2 and a half days. several other countries have also agreed to use their emergency reserves. biden's critics say it's a temporary fix. some argue it's a political move to help is sagging approval ratings. but the president says there isn't enough oil on the market to meet demand, and that's pushing up prices. he's asked the organisation of oil. busy producing countries known as opec plus to increase its output. i brought together other nations to contribute to the solution india, japan. republican korean, the united kingdom have agreed to release additional oil from verizon. and china may do more as well. this coordinated action will help us deal with the lack of supply, which in turn helps ease prices. well, this is how america strategic petroleum reserve works. it holds just over 600000000
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barrels of oil, mostly in underground caverns, in the southern states, texas and louisiana. it was created after arab states, led by saudi arabia impose an oil embargo in the u. s. and 1973. it's designed to store oil for use in an emergency. international energy agency is responsible for managing global oil supplies, and it says, member countries can only release reserves during wars or natural disasters, and not just to correct prices. well, joe biden isn't the 1st u. s. president, to tap into the reserve, bought a car bama did the same in 2011 to offset disruptions and supply because of the war in libya. our white house correspondent, kimberly hoggard, explains why the move hasn't been welcomed by everyone. what the criticism has been, is that this might resolve the issue in the short term and lead to some, in the immediate future, lower gas prices. but ultimately, because the issue of supply and demand globally has not been resolved, this will drive the prices up. so what you heard there is the president not only
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saying, look at this is a global problem, but the fact that he's also saying that this will work out in the end one point to know in all of this, is that with regard to the release of these reserves, the president isn't just releasing it all over night. in fact, there's going to be one person down in the 1st 3 months and then another portion in the coming months. and this he believes is going to allow for this kind of staggered approach that will ensure as the supply catches up to the demand as a result of people turning the economy back on. due to the coven pandemic, that this will resolve those issues. and the prices will stabilize at a lower rate. that's what this biden administration is counting on. one other announcement in there of importance, and it really affects domestic consumers, though, is the point that the president was making that he believes oil and as companies are exploiting the situation. and really, and he accused them as simply of price gouging of illegal behavior. that they are
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now seeing lower rates in the oil supply, not passing that on to the consumer. so the president announcing there that he will be investigating that ah ok, let's bring in our panel of guess i'll be right. you. john is research director of energy intelligence. he's joining us from new york in bern. camellia meyer is an energy analyst. she's also ceo of my resource, and heading glycine is director of energy climate and resources. you raise your group and joins us from london. thank you all very much and for being with us are going to start with you. how much of this is about cooling down oil prices and how much of this is about president biden's falling approval ratings? it's a great question and it's, it's really about it. but if you, thanks for having me on today, it's really about the both by related, right? i think the administration is lighting the messaging and the
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data around inflation probably, and certainly with energy and petroleum products. it's, you know, it's from center there. i think there, you know, there are having with the economy is certainly one of the aspects of their polling that comes on weekends. right. so, so i think, i think there's certainly a targeted client to address that. and yeah, and certainly, lauren, oil prices go away. we're just about to, you know, go into thanksgiving weekend. i'm just about to hit the road myself in an hour, you know, followed by and we'll have the holidays and you know, later in december i'm just give you a lot of mobility, a lot of trouble coming up here to you and, you know, wanting to lower the price of the pump is certainly a q prior to so it goes hand in hand for sure. you know, i think, i think the, you know, we'll probably get to it later. the conversation. i think the, the focus of this is a short term price lease. i think there are some, some medium term consequences that are going to come as a result can enter the u. a energy ministers being reported to have. sadie sees no
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logic in the u. e, putting more oil into the market because there's predictor to be, if i understand correctly, a surplus at the start, at least in the 1st quarter of next year, i understand the opec clusters you to meet in the early part of december. how do you think it's going to react to this? well, opec plus, well, sort of have to re gather all this and they will not react much. i mean, they will, for december, it's all down because they have over time released 400000 barrels a day. or 44, and this is sheffield, this, this increases sheffield to go all through april. so they might just reduce that the little bit. but opec, das boy, see for the whole of 2022, actually quite the significant and supply an overhang, which the e, i, a, the american, and the t agency and the international energy agency out of paris. also for c,
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especially for the 1st quarter as supply overhang, but notice dramatic it for opec. it's in the 1000000 plus barrels a day for the other states in the home that $2.00 to $300000.00 barrels a day. so. so there is a divergence of how people look at that, but it is pretty clear that next year certainly in january we will see a supply overhang. adding as abby was explaining, it seems as though it would be easy to assume that this was just a u. s. issue on dealing with the the prices there and also the, the falling approval ratings of the president there. why of other countries joining with us. thank, thank says invitation as well. so i mean, 1st of all, the lot of patients of other countries so far is, is symbolic at best. so india so far committed $5000000.00 barrels the case after
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japan. we said how much it china has been doing this independently anyway. but in the case of india, japan, south korea, and of course, britain, it is almost thirdly, political support with the united states of china, japan, south korea, our strategic allies of the u. s. is, is the most important partner and britain now freshly out of the you are also seeks close relationships. ready with the united states, so this is, this is the symbolic joining for them. all the actual additions are supplied. none of them will bring anywhere near as much was the market as the us have done. and it shows that it's largely, as i said earlier, program a domestic efforts to reduce pump prices in the us rather. ready than the global connected you mentioned before, the international energy authority and its position in this. if i understand it correctly, it's got a rule that says countries cannot when these strategic are reserves for anything
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other than crisis situations is we sort of alluded to before. but its rules also say that the i e, a can't get involved if it might affect market prices. one kind of begs the question, what is the point of the i e, a in a situation like this. while the i, if, if the, if the agent will be off the o e c, d countries. yes, there are the rules, but then america is the $500.00 pound gorilla in the room. so the 500 pound gorilla may choose to do other things. and you know, the question is, how do you define a crisis, i think for, for president bypass this was a crisis and he has tried several times to entice opec plus 222, when i list more barrels. and they have them, in my view, rightfully said no, we will not do that. we will not be open to, to us pressure. so so, so the question is, what is, what is, what constitutes a,
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what constitutes a, what constitutes a crisis and, but they divide that ministration does not just look at they from, oh, we need petrol. i mean, the price of petrol at the pump to go down that will have a time back asked by and said to himself, they also look that they've been worried about the inflationary pressure and inflation can be considered than they can amik crisis. bobby, you were talking about the timeline of this earlier wrong, but as clearly was saying was just referring to the other president himself admits that this is not going to happen immediately. and this is actually worth doing, given the fact that the response or the reaction if you're like, isn't going to be as quick as one would imagine the by the administration would like it to be leading up to holiday season. and i think they were effectively compelled to look like they were going to do. they're going to look like they were going to do something. right. i think, i think that's,
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that's what it came down to. you know, it was mentioned earlier that the contribution from india and japan, korea, u. k, are just dropped in the bucket in terms of what actual volume they're actually, you know, after the market. oh, you know what, what's interesting is, is the u. s. and often itself is also fairly small, you know, it's, it $50000000.00 barrels right, of which $18000000.00 barrels will be accelerated, a pre approved sale to be brought forward under the remaining $32000000.00 barrels or an exchange. so they have to be replaced over time, depending on who takes it out. um so you know, the actual amount is, is fairly small. as i mentioned earlier, you know, it's going to be phased over next several months. i mean, did you us use over 20000000 barrels of oil per day and overall 50000000 barrel. you know, release is, you know, is, is fairly marginal. and i think this will compel to look like they were doing
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something. you know, the, the actual impact is going to be a fairly limited, you know, to what the, i wouldn't know if you could just kind of back, you know, a couple of weeks ago i'm oil prices were used for breath, you're heading towards 90. so just the need to talk out there in the market of, of the fact there was going to be missed your release of coordinated while i'm has cool prices off. however, what was actually announced yesterday from all the different countries. it was fairly underwhelming. it's hard to see exactly what the market quote of what expected, you know, some of that 100000000 barrels will be some said a little bit more is what would have been needed to get price to go down. obviously the, the actual amount was, was fairly underwhelming, but again, it did have some effect. um, but, you know, in terms of the actual barrel impact, it's going to be fairly limited. so, you know, it was kind of more a, you know, a,
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you know, an announcement for the sake of making an announcement. the actual is going to be fairly new. yeah. i know both cornelia and how they want to make points or can you i'm going to come to you 1st having all come to you next camelia. well, i think yes it is fairly small compared to 600000000 barrels a day, but it is the largest ever release of s p r s that the us that's undertaking. let us not to get during the 1st gulf war. in 1991, they only released 17000000 barrels a day when libya came asunder in 22011, they released 13000000 barrels a day. so in that context, it's quite a bit. and that is absolutely right in terms of the oil price came down about 8 percent since the talk of the release of strategic research. and then it came by yesterday it rose. and to me that is
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a classic in stock market. you have to buy on the rumor and sell on the fact and that was a classic classic event like this happening. you want to make a point? sure, i just followed up a little bit. it's, i disagree slightly with one thing here. so at the bottom, it ministration clearly wanted to bring this headline out, that $50000000.00 barrels, that it is not $50000000.00 barrels per day. it is $50000000.00 barrels of the stretch of 4 months, which is far less. and we don't know what all these 50000000 barrels will be released to trenches. separated us was that one of them is a loan. the other one was already announcing back in 2018. so if you look at the nitty gritty is actually less and it's actually less than both princes, the 2011 release, which was $30000000.00 barrels over a month. so the actually is probably a little bit lower. however, i do fully agree that it was the action that was needed. it, and it was said earlier that we needed to just threatening on announcing this
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whole down prices of the last 4 weeks. but what does happen now is indeed that the market said, all right, part of this was already priced in the especially the, the smaller trench that was announced back in 2018. it's just being pulled forward . but the, it is, of course, that now the market is expecting opec to, to scratch its head and said, well, does the market really need to $400000.00 barrels per day that we've been planning to add? and the answer is probably, or maybe, i mean, i don't really know that that they'll hesitate because as we'll said earlier, correctly that the market is expected to flipping to over supply and open. so if you want, doesn't want to add to that because that just been one and a half years growing this, these high and went down and trying to parts of it again. and this is a problem, the market being politicized between producers and consumers. and that is basically not will be, i was there for and it shouldn't be used to price influencing. ready and that's, but the problem that we see is to put is ation of oil markets. and i think you want
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to come in there. yeah, just one when i was referring to earlier around just a mismatch in supply and demand. right. i think, i think ultimately what this comes down to is the fact that u. s. domestic. what else last week was demand is effectively recovered a bit already. but supplier still remains in the lower right. you close to 1000000 barrels it, lower for oil. and i think this is, this is sort of the key mismatch that the administration is sort of dancing around with that is sort of the, the, the key mismatch and then topic that's going to be driving prices over the know the short medium term of a you know, obviously there's a focus on their transition and of the long term shift where from oil consumption. but the short term demand is going, or in fact, you know, on our numbers, we see record little demand, you know, as early as may or june next year,
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or 21000000 barrels a and never, i'm and it's going to go higher from there as it was not keeping up at all. i mean, i think, but the fact that demand continues to grow higher actually makes the garage your, you know, kind of a more dangerous school. when you think about where demand to go next summer. i mean, how type the market could be next summer and beyond. just wanted to add that and they're happy to grow more color on that. but i think the, you know, the, the short term lease is, is actually quite short sighted in terms of where demand is going to be going on over the next one months. and you clearly had somebody made the point earlier and i do, i don't understand how the oil market works and i, you guys do. so i'm relying on you. but without wanting to oversimplify too much, one would imagine that even going to get rid of what is if i understand what you guys are saying, a relatively small amount, comparatively speaking, if the,
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if that is going to be released on to the market. that still has to be replaced, and one would imagine that replacing that is going to leave the u. s. and others open to having to buy that. that replacement oil one would imagine at a higher cost. and that seems counterproductive to tell me if that is gonna how that actually works. well, it may work, but then again, opec forecast has forecasted a really substantial over supply for the whole of next year. and yes, demand in the u. s. may go up, but, but look at what's happening in europe. now, you know, we, we are not, nobody thinks we're out of the woods with the virus yet. and if you look at the new lock downs in europe, if you look at what's, what's happening in, in asia, also with the virus. so you know, how quickly will will tourism will international ad travel really be bound where you have a big domestic market. yes, it will be bound, but how much,
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how quickly we did really and how sustainably will it rebound over over, over the next year? so as long as we're still stuck with with this virus. so then there is that, and then we have one other thing we have seen that the u. s. shale producers has not really up to their production. either they have really good. they have not, they have not stepped up to the, to the challenge, so to speak. because they too are very sort of wary of, of where it's going. so it's nice to have good demand forecasts. but the proof of the pudding there is in the eating and again, these demands supply forecasts very so differently between what opec sees, what the international energy agency sees and what the u. s. entity information agency sees that it's really high to get a, a neutral picture of this. and i want to come back to a point that you were,
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i think you were making earlier about whether or not the, the oil companies are actually going to buy in on any of this for this loan or the sales. and so, i mean, president biden has asked the federal trade commission to immediately investigate further illegal activity by oil and gas companies is pushing up gas prices. one would imagine that some of those companies are going to be the ones that he's going to want to take verse or is that gonna work counter productively for him? i don't know whether there was a legal activity or to be honest, but it's, it is an interesting point, but i'm not under reported or under notice that, you know, releasing s b r 's by the u. s. government isn't just, you know, dumping all this crude oil into somebody who will that everyone then gets, it does need to take it needs take us. and the 1st tranches mentioned, you mentioned earlier, it is a low. so if you take a loan now that you have to repay in, in a couple of years time, you are ex,
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effect we taking a on a bet on future prices. and it depends very much on the condition that this loan will be offered up. whether you wanted or, and the 2nd fraction also will be put out in an auction tender. and it just will depend on whether the, the private, all industry figures that's a good deal. and because this is a big difference between us and for instance, china, which is also released as p r 's of last couple months. china isn't part of the international energy agencies that are not bound by this pledge to know it flows prices that quite open about whether they like prices or not. and also in china, the vast majority of all companies are state control. so the government does a lot of what to do. that is not the case in u. s. and that all makes it a little bit more complicated. there can any, i know you want to come in here. what go ahead. i totally agree with pending. and i just would like to add $11.00 element here. i have a little bit of a high oil companies here. all they do is because on one hand and you tell them to
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will tell them, well, you know, fossil fuels, we really have to face you out. on the other hand, one asks them in the medium and the short term to invest is that carried me on to invest that if you look last this year, it was last year was 400 them 1000000000. were in this in upstream oil and gas, which is which is about half of what was invested in 2014 so, so they're terribly angry invested. so we asked them to invest to produce but we say basically are the dinosaurs we want to face you out. and that makes it a little bit difficult, you know, with all the, with all the e s. g, which we all want to save the planet. don't get me wrong. we all want to save the planet. but with all the e s. she obligations that these companies are facing and the, the uncertain future anti very uncertain regular regulatory environment in
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especially o u. c. p. countries. it's really a top spot that they're in abby, i know you want to come in there. we're getting to about a minute and 15 seconds left on the show. so if i can ask you to be relatively brief about how you want to respond, i'll be very quick just to point out, companies know the companies capex and spending budgets or control that investors are the ones to go look to if you want to increase short term supply, and that's really where the administration should be, you know, making their own calls. they want companies to produce more. it's not the companies themselves. and then the 2nd one i want to make is you mentioned earlier, you know, one of the things that most closely linked to oil prices is in our inventory levels . and, you know, dave, to forward cover, right? for future demand demand continue to go up. yeah, it will be viruses use of the short term, but as we saw with adults are very,
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they're pretty transient. you know, we see a will demand growth know back to creek over levels and 6 to 9 months and going out for the next, you know, 7 to 10 years. and if there's not enough supply to keep up with that, it's going to continue to draw down inventories. and if you, the more you draw on inventories of which of yours are part of it, you know, the more you put up a restaurant. so, you know, we're going is, this is all just sort of setting up for, you know, multi year, you know, or pressure on oil prices. even if there's some short term relief to get through things doing b, thank you very much. indeed, we're going to leave it there and i want to say thanks to all our guest arrived john nearly a mile and having goldstein. i'm thank you to of course for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website. i'll just 0 dot com on for further discussion. go to our facebook page. that's facebook dot com forward slash ha. inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is a inside story. for me,
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rolled matheson and the whole team here. bye for now. ah a l 0 london broker send test to people in thoughtful conversation with no hosts and no limitation lead to the place of color. it was a struggle here. it would be much easier for me might feel that white people part to go into cheddar and sing a song writer skin, so carry other people. wait a minute, you get way down. you stop what you're doing. and maybe one studio
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b unscripted on al jazeera a guest with african stories of resilience and carrying a tradition and dedication a short
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documentary by african filmmakers on the white 9. and the book maker, africa direct on al jazeera ah 1200 hours gmc here. and i'll just 0. hello, i'm come all santa maria with the headlines and i'll just the are has obtained satellite images showing the united arab emirates is providing military support to the european army investigation. revealed a hide to private companies from europe, to run military flights into the images, all social drones at an ethiopian airport in the capital out of saba is a look at some of the details. this is the largest ebay, some few appear. the her mother base is just south of the capital, addis ababa. it plays a major.

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