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tv   [untitled]    November 25, 2021 3:30am-4:01am AST

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it quits when the new budget was rejected. green say they were only in power to pass green laws, which were voted down. houses is now in the hands of parliament speaker, but anderson says she hopes to try again as the leader of a single party, governor, governor, you'll come on. ah, this is al jazeera. let's get around. now at the top stories, at least 31 refugees and migrants trying to reach britain have drowned in the english channel near cali after their boat sank. you and official said is the worst incident in the crossing since they thought keeping records. 7 years ago. this disaster underscores how dangerous it is to cross the channel in this way. and it also shows how vital it is that we now step up our efforts to break the business model of the gangsters who were sending people to see or in this way i say,
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to our partners or across the channel. now is the time for us all of to step up to work together to do everything a we can to break these gangs who are literally getting away with murder. 3 white men in the u. s. had been found guilty of murdering armored aubrey, a black man who was chased down and shot dead in their ga neighborhood last year. greg mac, michael was found guilty on all charges, including malice, murder, his father, travis, was found guilty of felony murder, a 3rd man who joined the chase and filmed the killing william bryan, was also found guilty of felony murder. they pursued the 25 year old black man who was out jogging with their truck. all 3 said they acted in self defense. the son of libya's former leader mama duffy has been bought from running in next month's presidential election. se for las lam. good daffy is one of 25 candidates who have been bought from standing libby as electric commission says he's
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ineligible because he was convicted of a crime wall or holly for half the along with 72. others remains in the race. and when i curfew is holding in the french caribbean territory of guadalupe off 2 days a violent protest against covered 19 restrictions. it's that long standing grievances over poverty and inequality. vaccination rates remain low. with less than half the population. receiving corona vars. jobs. the protests have spread through the neighboring island of martinique as well. leaders of 3 german political parties have agreed to form a coalition government. after 2 months of talks, all f sholtes will now take over as chancellor early next month. those are the headlines we're back in half now. right now on i just, either it's inside school ah
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fuel prices and inflation a rocketing in the us. the presidents ordered millions of barrels of oil to be released from the country's strategic reserves. is that going to make a difference or is it just a bid to boost his all in approval ratings? are several other countries joining in this is in say story. ah hello and welcome to the program. i'm rob matheson, it's a rare move that president joe biden hope's will help ease us petrol prices and reduce inflation. that's had
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a 31 year high. he's tapping into the strategic petroleum reserve. 50000000 barrels of oil are being released and that's roughly what the u. s uses in 2 and a half days. several other countries have also agreed to use their emergency reserves. biden's critics say it's a temporary fix. some argue it's a political move to help is sagging approval ratings. but the president says there isn't enough oil on the market to meet demand, and that's pushing up prices. he's asked the organisation of oil producing countries known as opec plus to increase its output. i brought together other nations to contribute to the solution, india, japan, republic of korean, the united kingdom have agreed to release additional oil from their reserves. and china may do more as well. this coordinated action will help us deal with the lack of supply, which in turn helps ease prices. well, this is how america strategic petroleum reserve works. it holds just over 600000000
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barrels of oil, mostly, and underground caverns and the southern states, texas and louisiana. it was created after arab states, led by saudi arabia, impose an oil embargo in the u. s. and 1973. it's designed to store oil for use in an emergency. the international energy agency is responsible for managing global oil supplies, and it says, member countries can only release reserves during wars or natural disasters, and not just to correct prices. well, joe biden is the 1st us president to tap into the reserve buttock. obama did the same in 2011 to offset disruptions in supply because of the war in libya. our white house correspondent, company hollywood, explains why the move hasn't been welcomed by everyone. what the criticism has been, is that this might resolve the issue in the short term and lead to some, in the immediate future, lower gas prices. but ultimately, because the issue of supply and demand globally has not been resolved, that this will drive the prices up. so what you heard there is the president not
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only saying, look at this is a global problem, but the fact that he's also saying that this will work out in the end one point to know. and all of this is that with regard to the release of these reserves, the president isn't just releasing it all over night. in fact, there's going to be one portion down in the 1st 3 months and then another portion in the coming months. and this he believes is going to allow for this kind of staggered approach that will ensure as the supply catches up to the demand as a result of people turning the economy back on. due to the coven pandemic, that this will resolve those issues. and the prices will stabilize at a lower rate. that's what this bind administration is counting on. one other announcement in there of importance, and it really affects domestic consumers, though, is the point that the president was making that he believes oil and companies are exploiting the situation. and really, and he accuse them essentially
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a price gouging of illegal behavior. and that they are now seeing lower rates in the oil supply, not passing that on to the consumer. so the president announcing there that he will be investigating that, ah ok, let's bring in our panel of guess i'll be right. a research director of energy intelligence is joining us from new york in bern. camelia meyer is an energy analyst. she's also ceo of my resource, and having glycine is director of energy climate and resources, you raise your group and joins us from london. thank you all very much for being with us. i'll be going to start with you. how much of this is about cooling down oil prices and how much of this is about president biden's falling approval ratings? it's a great question and it's, it's really about, oh no, but we, thanks for having me on today. it's really about the both by related, right. i think the administration is biting the messaging and
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the data around inflation problem and certainly with energy and petroleum products. it's, you know, it's from senator there. i think there are heavily economy is certainly one of the aspects of their polling that comes out. we can. right. so, so i think, i think there's certainly a targeted client to address that. and yeah, and certainly, you know, lower prices go away. we're just about to, you know, go into thanksgiving weekend. i'm just about to hit the road myself in an hour, you know, follow by and we'll have the holidays. you know, later in december i'm just give you a lot of mobility, a lot of trouble hearing you us and you're wanting to lower the price of the pump, is certainly a key prior to so it goes hand in hand for sure. you know, i think, i think the, you know, we'll probably get to it later the conversation, i think be the focus of this is a short term lease. i think there are some, some medium term consequences. they're going to come as
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a result. can any of the u. s. energy ministers being deported to, to have sadie sees no logic in the u. a putting more oil into the market because there's predictor to be, if i understand correctly, a surplus at the start, at least in the 1st quarter of next year, i understand the opec class is due to meet in the early part of december. how do you think it's going to react to this? well, opec plus, well, sort of have to, we gather all this and they will not react much. i mean, they will, for december, it's all done because they have over time released 400000 barrels a day. or 44, and this is sheffield, this, this increase is scheduled to go all through april. so they might just reduce that the little bit, but opec, das boise, idaho of 2022. actually quite the significant supply overhang, which i'm the e, i a, the american and the t h and c and the international energy agency out of paris
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also for c, especially for the 1st quarter as supply overhang, but not as dramatic. it for opec, it's in the 1000000 plus barrels a day for the other states in the home that $2.00 to $300000.00 barrels a day. so. so there is a divergence of how people look at that. but it is pretty clear that next year, certainly in january we will see a supply overhang, adding as abby was explaining, it seems as though it would be easy to assume that this was just a u. s. issue i'm dealing with the, the price is there and also the, the falling approval ratings of the president there. why of other countries joining with us. thank. thank says invitation as well. so i mean, 1st of all, be part of the base of the country so far is, is symbolic at best. so india so far committed $5000000.00 barrels the case after
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japan. we said how much it, china has been doing this independently anyway. but in the case of india, japan, south korea, and of course, britain, it is almost certainly political support would be united states of china. japan, south korea are strategic allies of the u. s. is, is the most important partner and britain. now press the out of the you also see close relationships with the united states. so this is, this is the symbolic. joining for them, all of an actual additions are supplied. none of them will bring anywhere near as much was the market as the us have done. and it shows that it last via, as i said earlier, program a domestic effort to, to use pump prices in the us rather. ready than the global connected you mentioned before, the date, international energy authority and its position in this. if i understand it correctly, it's going to rule that says countries cannot release strategic or reserves for
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anything other than crisis situations is we sort of alluded to before, but its rules also say that the i e a can't get involved if it might affect market prices, one kind of begs the question, what is the point of the i e a in a situation like this? well, the, i 8 is the, is the agency off the, off the o e c d countries? and then yes, there are the rules, but then america is the 500 pound gorilla in the room. so the 500 pound gorilla may choose to do other things. and then, you know, the question is, how do you define a crisis? i think for president biting this was a crisis, and he has tried several times to entice opec plus 222 men lift more barrels and they have them in my view, rightfully said no, we will not do that. we will not be beholden to to us pressure. so so,
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so the question is, what is, what is, what constitutes or what constitutes or what constitutes a crisis and, but they divide that ministration does not just look at they've from, oh, we need petrol, and we need the price of petrol at the pump to go down that will have a time that asked by the same time, so they also look at that then worry about the inflationary pressure and inflation can be considered an economic crisis. bobby, you were talking about the timeline of this earlier wrong, but as clearly we're saying this is referring to the president himself admits that this is not going to happen immediately. and this is actually worth doing, given the fact that the response or the reaction if you're like, isn't going to be as quick as one would imagine. the bible administration would like it to be leading up to holiday season and i think i think they were effectively compelled to look like they were going to look like they were going to do something. right. i think, i think ultimately that's,
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that's what it came down to. you know, it was mentioned earlier that the contribution from india and japan, south korea, u. k, are just dropped from the bucket in terms of what actual volume they're actually gonna add to the market. um, you know what, what's interesting is, is the u. s. amount itself is also fairly small and you know, if it's $50000000.00 barrels, right, of which $18000000.00 barrels will be accelerated for pre approved sale to be brought forward under the remaining $32000000.00 barrels or an exchange. so they have to be replaced over time, depending on who takes it out. so you know, the, the actual amount is, is fairly small. as i mentioned earlier, you know, it's going to be phased over the next several months. i mean, did you us, could you over 20000000 barrels of oil per day and overall 50000000 barrel, you know, releases, you know, is fairly marginal, you know, i think, you know,
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they felt compelled to look like they were doing something. now, you know, the, the actual impact is going to be, you know, fairly limited. you know, the one thing i wouldn't know if you could just kind of back, you know, a couple of weeks ago. i'm oil prices were, you know, use for breath. you're heading towards 90, so just the need to talk out there in the market of, of the fact there was going to be next your release of coordinated one. i'm has cool prices off. however, what was actually announced yesterday from all the different countries. yeah, it was fairly underwhelming, it's hard to see exactly what the market could have. what expected, you know, some of that 100000000 barrels will be some said a little bit more is what would have been needed to get price to go down. obviously the, the actual amount was fairly underwhelming, but again, we did have some effect. um, but, you know, in terms of the actual barrel impact is going to be fairly limited. so, you know,
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it was kind of more a, you know, a, you know, an announcement for the sake of making an announcement. the actual is going to be fairly new. yeah. i know both cornelia and how they want to make points or can you i'm going to come to you 1st and i'll come to you next camelia. well, i think yes, it is fairly small compared to 600000000 barrels a day, but it is the largest ever release of s p r s that the u. s. has undertaken let us not to get during the 1st gulf war in 1991. they only released 17000000 barrels a day when libya came asunder in 22011. they released 13000000 barrels a day. so in that context, it's quite a bit. ab is absolutely right in terms of the oil price came down about 8 percent since the talk of the release of strategic research. and then it came in, but yesterday it rose. and to me that is
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a classic in stock market. you have to buy on the rumor and sell on the fact and that was a classic classic event like this had and you wanted to make a point. sure, i just followed up a little bit. it's, i disagree slightly with one thing here. so at the bottom, it ministration clearly wanted to bring this headline out, that $50000000.00 barrels, that it is not $50000000.00 barrels per day. it is $50000000.00 barrels of the stretch of 4 months, which is far less. and we don't know what all these 50000000 barrels will be released to trenches. separated us was that one of them is a loan. the other one was already announcing back in 2018. so if you look at the nitty gritty is actually less and it's actually less than both princes, the 2011 release, which was $30000000.00 barrels over a month. so the actually is probably a little bit lower. however, i do fully agree that it was the action that was needed. it and, and it was said earlier that we needed a just threatening on announcing this book,
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hold down prices of the last 4 weeks. but what does happen now is indeed that the market said, all right, part of this was already priced in the, especially the, the smaller trucks that was announced back in 2018. it's just being pulled forward . but the other blood is, of course, that now on the market is expecting opec to, to scratch its head and said, well, does the market really need to 400000 barrels a day that we've been planning to add? and the answer is probably, or maybe, i mean, i don't really know that they'll hesitate because as we'll said earlier, correctly that the market is expected to flip into over supply and opec. so if you want, doesn't want to add to that because i've just been one and a half years growing this, these high inventories down and trying to pop up again. and this is a problem. the market is being politicized between producers and consumers. and that is based basically not will be i was there for and it should be used to price influencing. ready and that's, but the problem that we see is to put is ation of oil markets. and probably i think
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he wanted to come in there. yeah. just one when i was referring to earlier around just a mismatch in supply and demand. right. i think, i think ultimately what this comes down to is the fact that u. s. domestic. know, what else last week was demand is effective. we recover it already, but supplies still remains in the lower right. you close to 1000000 barrels it lower for oil. and i think this is, this is sort of the key mismatch that the administration is sort of dancing around with that is sort of the, the, the key mismatch and then topic that's going to be driving prices over the, you know, the short medium term of a you know, obviously there's a focus on transition and going to long term where from oil consumption. but the short term demand is going, or in fact, you know, on our numbers, we see record little demand, you know,
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as early as may or june next year or 21000000 barrels a. i'm and is going to go higher from there as it was not keeping up at all. and i think, but in the fact that demand continues to grow higher, actually makes the garage your, you know, kind of a war or dangerous school. when you think about where demand to go next summer, i mean how take the market to be next summer and beyond. just wanted to add that in there. happy to grow more color on that. but i think the, you know, the short term lease is, is actually quite short sighted in terms of where demand is going to be going on over the next one months. and young camelia did somebody made the point earlier and i do, i don't understand how the oil market works and you guys do. so i'm relying on you . but without wanting to oversimplify too much, one would imagine that even going to get rid of what is if i understand what you guys are saying, a relatively small amount, comparatively speaking, if the,
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if that is going to be released on to the market. that still has to be replaced, and one would imagine that the placing that is going to leave the u. s. and others open to having to buy that, that replacement oil one would imagine at a higher cost. and that seems counterproductive to tell me if that is gonna how that actually works. well, it may work, but then again, opec forecast has forecasted a really substantial over supply for the whole of next year. and yes, demand in the us may go up, but, but look at what's happening in europe. now, you know, we, we are not, nobody thinks we're out of the woods with the virus yet. and if you look at the new lock downs in europe, if you look at what's, what's happening in, in asia, also with the virus. so you know, how quickly will will tourism will international air travel really be bound where you have a big domestic market. yes, it will be found, but how much,
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how quickly we really and how sustainably will it rebound over over, over the next year. so as long as we're still stuck with with this virus. so then there is that, and then we have one other thing we have seen that the u. s. shale produces has not really up to their production. either they have really good. they have not, they have not stepped up to the, to the challenge, so to speak. because they 2 are very sort of wary of, of where it's going. so it's nice to have good demand forecasts. but the proof of the pudding there is in the eating and again, these demands supply forecasts very so differently between what opec sees, what the international energy agency sees. and what the us entity information agency sees that it's really hide to get a, a neutral picture of this. and i want to come back to a point that you were,
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i think you were making earlier about whether or not the, the oil companies are actually going to buy in on any of this for this loan or the sales. and so, i mean, president biden has asked the federal trade commission to immediately investigate further illegal activity by oil and gas companies is pushing up gas prices. one would imagine that least some of those companies are going to be the ones that he's going to want to take verse or is that gonna work counter productively for him? i don't know whether there was illegal activity in the us to be honest. but it's, it is an interesting point that that's under reported under notice. but, you know, it really thing s b r 's by the u. s. government isn't just, you know, something all this crude oil into some big pool that everyone then gets. it does need to take a take it and the 1st tranches mentioned, you mentioned earlier, is it a load? so if you take a loan now that you have to repay in, in a couple of years time,
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you are ex effect. we taking a pun, they bet on fuel prices, and it depend very much on the condition that this loan will be off of that, whether you want it or not. and the 2nd factor will be put out in an ultimate tender and it just will depend on whether the, the private, all. ready industry figures that's a good deal because beat and this is a big difference between us and china, which is also released as of last month. china isn't part of the lineage agencies that are not bound by this pledge to not influence prices. they're quite open about whether they like prices or not. and also in china, the vast majority of companies will take them both. so the government, just a lot of what to do that is not the case in us and that will make it a little bit more complicated. there can really, i know you wanted to come in here. what go ahead. i totally agree with coming. and i just would like to add $11.00 element here. i have a little bit of a hard for oil company all produces because on the one hand,
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you tell them or the will tell them, well, you know, fossil fuels, we really have to face you out. on the other hand, one of them in the medium, the short term to invest, is that terribly on to invest, that if you look last this year, it was last year was over 400000000000 in upstream oil and gas, which is, which is about half of what was invested in 2014 so so, so they're terribly hungry invested. so we asked them to invest to produce but we say basically are the dinosaurs we want to face you out. and that makes it a little bit difficult, you know, with all the, with all the e s. g, which we all want to save the planet. don't get me wrong. we all want to save the planet. but with all the e s. she obligations that these companies are facing and the, the uncertain future anti very uncertain regular regulatory environment in
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especially, or we see the countries, it's really a top spot that they're in abby, i know you wanted to come in there. we're getting to about a minute and 15 seconds left on the show. so if i can ask you to be relatively brief about how you want to respond, i'll be very quick just to point out. companies know, the companies, capex and spending budgets are controlled by wells. investors are the ones to go look to if you want to increase short term supply. and that's really where the administration should be, you know, making their own calls. they want companies to produce more. it's not the companies themselves. and then the 2nd one i wanted to make it mentioned earlier, you know, one of the things that most closely linked to oil prices is in our inventory levels . and, you know, dave to forward cover, right? for future demand, demand continue to go up. yeah, it will be viruses use of the short term. but as we saw with adults are very,
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they're pretty transient. you know, we see it will demand growth, you know, back to recall the levels and 6 to 9 months and going out for the next, you know, 7 to 10 years. and if there's not enough supply to keep up with that, it's going to continue to draw down inventories. and if you more to draw on inventories of which of course, s yars are part of it. you know, the more to put up a restaurant. so, you know, what point is, this is all just sort of setting up for, you know, multi year or pressure on oil prices. even if there's some short term relief to get through thanksgiving. be thank you very much. indeed, we're going to leave it there and i want to say thanks to all i guess. i rearrange john cornelia maya and having goldstein. i'm thank you to, of course for watching you can see the program again any time by visiting our website al jazeera dot com on for further discussion. go to our facebook page, that's facebook dot com, forward slash ha. inside story. you can also join the conversation on twitter handle is a inside story for me,
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