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tv   [untitled]    October 9, 2021 2:30pm-3:01pm AST

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so more risks of long term brain damage. ah, a russian doctor told al jazeera any strike to the head is dangerous and could cause outs. hi, mustn't of a life threatening injuries. 6 ask for what the fight is earn. no one would give us a figure. only say i paid handsomely for all the blood. they speak. bernard smith, alger 0, moscow. ah, ah, let's take you through some of the headlines here. now jesse are now senior us and taliban officials have begun talks in cut off. it's the 1st in person meeting since american troops left afghanistan, i saw is high on the agenda after a suicide bomber killed 60 people on friday. and thought sure what name has more from doha, from the americans point of view. what this meeting is, is
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a continuation quote of pragmatic entangle meds with the taliban on issues of vital national security. what it is not according to a u. s. official is quote, granting legitimacy or conferring recognition to the taliban. the u. s. official goes on to say that we are very clear that with regards to conferring legitimacy to the taliban, it will be based on their actions. chinese president, she ging ping is again vowing peace. full re unification with taiwan, taipei, as commander increased military and political pressure from beijing and recent weeks. about 2000 refugees and migrants are in hiding after escaping from a libyan detention center. at least 6 people were shot and killed by gods during the chaos on friday. saudi arabia says who the rebels of launched to drone attacks from yemen towards an airport in the kingdom south. both thrones were said to be
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carrying explosives. the 1st launched on friday wounded 10 people re ard says the 2nd was intercepted by air defenses. early on saturday, the raimie in foreign minister is making a visit to syria, saying that a mere of de leon arrived in damascus on saturday for talks with government officials. it's the ministers, latest thoughts. i'm a regional tool that's also included visits of moscow and bay root. more than 50 people have died, no most 70, i believe missing. after a boat sank on the congo river, rescue crews and mon gala province of been on the scene since the vessels capsized almost a week ago. the scale of the accident has taken several days to emerge. as he had lies, the news continues and al jazeera off the inside story. ah,
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a dispute is growing between molly and fuss. paris is accused of abandoning banneker and it's fight against on groups and the sell region. and russian mercenaries were expected replaced french soldiers. so what are the risks? this is inside story. ah, ah, ah. hello, welcome to the inside story. i'm adrian finnegan, a spat between the french and maryan government says, threatening to derail an already fragile alliance against armed groups in the south region of both africa. last month, molly's interim prime minister accused france of abandonment over its decision to
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reduce its military presence in the region. french president, emanuel mackerel called the comments unacceptable and later disparaged the molly and government's efforts to secure parts of the country. on tuesday, molly summoned frances ambassador, had expressed indignation over microns wood's tension between the 2 countries was high before the route. after reports that molly was in, talks to higher russian mercenaries for security lowville if you just needed a new situation resulting from the end of operation by can puts molly before a fait accompli was abandoning us mid flight to a certain extent. and it leads us to explore pathways and means to better ensure our security, autonomously, or with other partners, so as to feel the gotten them, which will certainly result from the withdrawal of the french. that operation in the north of the country or micron, responded to those collins saying, what the molly and prime minister said is inadmissible. it's shameful. and it dishonors what is not even
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a government. the molly and prime minister was born of 2 crews. there was a qu in august 2020, and that a qu within a qu, the current government, he said, has 0 credibility. so why has france a former colonial power in molly been fighting there for the last 8 years? well, the current crisis began in 2012 with an armed uprising bi separatists in molly's north that created unrest that led to al qaeda and i still linked fighters spreading out across the sa, held in january 2013 french troops began a mission to rid molly of rebels that expanded into the ongoing operation by con, targeting groups, across the sa hell. despite french lead efforts, smiley and neighboring countries like this year, and becky faso of struggle to contain armed groups. and in july, france announced that it would draw down its presence of $5000.00 soldiers and end it's operation. early in 2022. or molly's faced international criticism over reports that is to recruit 1000 russian mercenaries known as the wagner group. the
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soldiers for hire have reportedly operated in conflicts, owns like ukraine, syria and libya, french and u. s. officials of war marley's leaders that the group is more likely to further destabilize security. the wagner group has an estimated 2000 contractors in the central african republic. they've been accused of rights abuses and exploitation there. ah, so let's bring in our guests for today's discussion. for brace party is chief strategy officer rasmussen, global he joins as far skype from st. on that. a big way. a greg who is a security analyst at our for politico and he joins us far skype from a buddha and from washington dc. we're joined by andrew leibovich policy fellow at the european council on foreign relations. good. good to have all of you with us gentlemen. let's start with you andrew. so as we heard, president micron says that molly's government has 0 credibility. is he right?
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and what's his reasoning for saying something so controversial so publicly? what, what does really come from is a lot of frustration. i think that's not just in france about the, about the behavior of molly's transitional government and the fact that their signal multiple times that especially recently and that they are planning or likely planning to extend the transitional period past what the international community agreed to. i don't think that's the fair to say that they have no credibility, but certainly there's a lot of frustration in the region and in the international community about the transitional government and about trying to figure out what they're actually doing . particularly amid these are these reports of negotiations for the arrival of russian mercenaries in the country. ok, for brief, just remind us why is france reducing its military presence in the region? simply because it's not sustainable. we have had,
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we have more than $5000.00 french forces deployed in the region and both the death toll but also financially it's not sustainable. and at the same time you see, i think pretty mediocre results in terms of containing the g had these threat. so i think there has to be a moment that kind of decision point and clearly present on my call. i've made some decision to towards the progressive withdrawal. however, to come back to your previous question, he's also in a difficult position and i think that's why he's increasing the pressure on the regional government because he needs those governments to be more solid and more reliable in order to take over what the french forties are doing and that's, he's pretty common right now. is he doing that though, by, by accusing money's government if having 0 credibility? well, i think he's also, you know, reminding that basically their security is to a large extent depending on the french presence. so they have to think twice before
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basically not waiting to be able to play the role and get this done. and the withdrawal from a sub was, it was a pretty shocking case for everybody. both defense. because if you will go too fast, you will have a complete collapse, but also for region of governments that they depend to a large extent of on foreign forces that the french so it's a complicated as basically embrace of both the regional and the french leaders who are depending on each other, and i think mccoys trying to play a be taught. both of the great french troops warmly welcomed into molly back in 2013 when militants were threatening to seize control of the whole country. molly's government is unhappy right now with the draw down, or at least in which the, the way in which the draw out has been announced. how to people, though, in molly feel about french troops that they've not brought peace and stability to the region. that's all they know they haven't,
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the context has changed. what we'll look at, we'll talk about french intervention of french conduct their vision in with regard battery in molly. it would be the next question is on that what context the context completed? when there was the error trade to the state or no few of frank joe, the us to the it's a little bit different or this you can kind of different enough to see that the response then was of course the people wanted the status to be you know to be to get that function in because of the of why, because of institution denver. now what you have is something that in 202021 very lackluster results on, on the ground. dad, he's in ms. green across the silent just in a miley and then with the, with recent protests you would see on the streets, you know, many miles within the russian flag. just so should discontent with. busy
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regard to french at present also even before the qu, they was major protest against a black kid. kids are the former president would put in new york, who and in those protests, of course you could, you could test the content on the streets. you know of molly? so we'll talk comes down to different the lackluster results on the gun from a different intervention that i knew someone down the street that this content is now in the decision making in the air corridors of miley andrew as francis intervention. and molly been a failure? i don't think we can talk about it as a failure, especially because it's impossible to know what the situation would be. a french courses weren't in the country. and in the south, i think what we can say definitively is that the security situation is not better the the presence and the influence of g. how to scripts has spread in various parts
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of the country. there's also been a breakdown of commuter relations and a rise of self defense, malicious or further increase of the power and presence of self defense measures communal, malicious. so in that regard, certainly things are not better. i don't think it's necessarily fair to frame into terms of failure or not, of france alone, in part because france is the lead offensive military actor from the international community. but there's also a significant other presence, including of the, the un peacekeeping force, you training missions and capacity assistance building and others. so it's, it's not quite the right framing, but certainly security situation continues to get worse. not just molly, but across the region. it can expand on that in just a moment, but 1st a brief going back to what a vague where was was saying just a few moments ago, i get the feeling that some people in molly would would actually be pleased to see the back of the, the french troops would, would some, their prefer a negotiated settlement with the middle militants,
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so chief peace through negotiations because of course, france as flatly refused to, to negotiate. it's just, it's something that it won't countenance. i mean, of course i cannot speak for the local population, but what is true is if you look at previews or current conflicts, you always have to come to a point where you bring in some element from robert groups into a government of national reconciliation. now the question is whether the french diplomacy phrase, diplomacy has been doing this work to have the element from the rubber good to can be brought in under our government. and obviously excluding those that are 2 extreme needs to be brought in and whether the local government itself is willing to embrace that and but i think when you look at getting them to reach the position from false like the u. s. in the case of denison will mean that the robot could actually get some ground. i will typically actually take over the country. so i
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think you need to consider some kind of settlement at some point. okay. and a big way you want to pick up. so, you know, to get agreement, are there relevance within the rebel groups that could be brought into some sort of government of national reconciliation and what the current regime in bama co allow that yes, i agree because the constellation is, is inevitable part of conflict resolution. we cannot on dice mid the ability, the power dialogue, when we're looking at the maria context. you have it is a center government, a central government that is struggling to united the country. and the most of these militia, they are not, all of them are actually ideologically driven, some shared gen, new discontent towards his teeth because of law on the development or issues, not related to terrorism. so to ideal ideological machination, so i think it's very important going forward that we have to refer says the
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importance of a dialogue with, with our friends like it or not. i don't think france should be able to do that with that, it should be dialogue. molly? or not, that remains the prerogative of minority data as themselves, if it stand for dialogue. and if you look at the indication, even going back to a block, it does government. there was already knew a movement in that direction to see how we can unite. but rebel, lead us politically. does that mean just those who think molly should be moving a particular direction, a way from conflict and it's time that would begin to go back to those to enter those moves towards in odella without, without the french wanted l. o. in a molly, i don't think i should, that should really stop it should define without my mother really moves to was a dialog, cassandra, muddy the waters even further. here is the potential presence of russian mercenaries on the ground in molly, and what they succeed. where, where france and,
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and the german and the sturdy and forces currently serving there have failed. and what are the strategic risks to having non state actors working in such a highly volatile region? well, i think there are a number of potential risk and we should start with that because 1st of all, for france, you and other partners have made quite clear that they see a potential russian mercenary presence is incompatible with their own presence in their own operations. in molly, but then beyond that, also, 1st of all we, we don't have much information about what the outlines, the potential deal would be, what a potential deployment of russian mercenaries might look like. but certainly looking at the track record in media in both and beach in the central african republic. we see not only that, these forces have not always been particularly effective, but they've been quite brutal in many ways in their treatment of civilians in particular. so i don't think there's any indication that even
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a large deployment of russian mercenaries would be able to somehow fix the, the problems in molly, in ways that international deployments, again, in partnership with falling courses, has not been able to do. the problems are elsewhere. it's not just a question of more or less effective military forces, but even then there's no indication that we can see that russian mercenary forces would be more effective or the better suited to dealing with the, the very complicated threats in modeling for brace. the british foreign office is described that the group as a driver of conflict which capitalizes on instability for its own interests. is it right and where is this this relationship come from? does? does molly have historical links or an ongoing relationship with russia? i figured the following office description is pretty accurate. if you look at the track record of the vac, nor group in ukraine, ca, libya,
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they have brought more violence including on and especially on civilian population, which will not forget that they often back the, the strong man which is not always in the interest of stability in those regions, and they have often actually produced a radicalization or polarization of the conflict as we saw force operating so. so i do agree with the british frame of his description, what they give our or not just to, you know, some business menu are investing in those missionaries, but the way they give to the russian government and to let me put in is a top, come into a bigger game, basically a seat, a diplomatic seat at the table. this is what we've seen in the be where now you have to count with russia. you cannot settle the conflict in libya. address the different, you know, grievances of the various groups. we've all russia helping,
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and i think this is what he's doing. so for a minimum price we for lots of deniability, he can gain to actually see that the at the top table with the big powers. and i think that's what their strategy is because, like you said, i don't think russia has. he started the some extensive interest in the part of the world. but he, by itself a seat for relatively low cost of what impact with the presence of russian mercenaries have on the regional military partnership between natalie at its neighbors. to tackle the militants, the jazz foreign minister said that that agreement will collapse if, if russian must resolve on the ground in money as he right. no, i don't. i don't think he's right. we have to look at the fact that the immediate, the immediate reason or the immediate sparks wagner will have in mind is regime security. that's very, very important and cannot be kind of missing from any analysis it we were looking
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at it government a june 3rd, that's the hardest lead. i'm was assassinated not so long ago and that fit fit our talk definitely said of consent was secure, is a security. and with wagner, our crew seen with incent, africa, republic, we can actually provides regions security post not secured for him on senior official. that's one more in the broader regional context of call to see the child the and i've spoken against what wagner puts a 4 in reference as they call it boy in the afternoon on child yet child consent comes from the fact that when a former president, debbie was killed in april in details came out to see the nearby militia that the present was fighting. where to be trimmed back by wagner. so that, that consent for child is there. yes. the for the fear that will give that this group might proliferate around child is there already. there it isn't. i've got to
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public, anybody continue to chat. but we have to look at my leave. why? miley itself wants to, wants to bring in wagner, and it comes from the fact that molly has not done this over to said we partners wheat ball. so wants to see if there are options to be able to solve the problem without wagner can solve the problem. i think it's the, i don't think we can solve the problem, the problems in, in my very complex. but of course, the kind of part of conduct there is a way that at the regime i feel a little more secure with them in the country. they're not going to be enough of them to replace the current number of french troops there. would people in molly feel any more secure if, if russian mercenaries with, with their honestly, it wouldn't really matter where people see secure it would be whether they are able to deliver on what it, what the of objectives are. if,
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if it's to expand to return that data integrity of, of my last did, of course that would definitely piggyback on know some form to improve confidence in going as me goes on on this as really wagner. right. but the, the risk here is no in flu and nobody knows how france is going to respond if they're going to us. and there is the withdrawal. or if, if a defense i hill did my, my little expulsion of molly or some of complication within the region, i response. because there, melissa, not consult with regional regional countries in the lead up to 2 disagreements with this. a very unilateral agreement to combat the problem that is regional. so that lack of coordination is why anytime in the analysis or by cybersecurity, wallison, we have to find ways to do better coordination or address should neighboring countries be nervous at the prospect of russian mercenaries operating nearby and potentially on their territory. in the case of missouri became
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a facile certainly i think there's some reason to be concerned about this, particularly given the way that that one group has behaved in other countries. and given also the fact that there's a reasonable concern about the impact that this would have not only on civilians but also on potentially any implementing the uncertainty further given the behavior of these courses again in other conflicts. i also think that part of this is that for the regional countries, there's been a long process of trying to put in place, not always easily or effectively trying to put in place different international cooperation frameworks for resolving conflict or for dealing with the conflict. and so, and then any rapid change in that, or a departure of the international community for molly could have some benefits to regional countries, especially in the chair. but could also disrupt a lot of this work and disrupt a lot of the networks that are in place. and i think that it also proved quite
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complicated to navigate. and we're rapidly running out of time here. but less than 2 minutes if, if you could answer this question whether it's a big question, what needs to happen to bring peace and stability to the sale region? that really a question you can answer it in 2 minutes. and if i, if, if i knew then i think i would have, i would have been as a baby think that there does need to be a much more persistent focus on the needs of today and the needs of sally and communities and the politics of all this, these are, these are not military solutions are not economic solutions to these conflicts. alternately, many of these conflicts are, are political and have to be dealt with through a political lens through political processes that are, that are inclusive and where the interest community can support regional and local initiatives. i think that's how we can, we can start to get on a better path in the region. for brief,
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coming back to something that you were saying a few moments ago about russia getting a seat at the table relatively cheaply. what are the political and security costs to europe, from all of their songs, from what's going on in the central region right now? well, the obvious cost is to have a potential terrorist threat on europe in national living in the region. but more recently, it was so on a europe, in territory, even though that trade has been remote lately which can be regarded as one of the small measures of success of the french intervention. the other, the other costs, which i think we see almost every day on tv screens, is you by not having stable governments by not having controlled borders. you do have a significant illegal migration flow going from the to, to europe. which politically is, as you know, vague or traverse, show,
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and plays in a very toxic way and the domestic political debates. and don't forget that the france is going to vote for president next year. so i think these are the major cars. however, continuing on the same basis as now has also its costs in terms of human costs, deaf toll of friends showed years and now the so years and also financial. so i think this is, they feel like that we have to walk here is to do less, but not to do nothing. a big way we say time is, is terribly terribly site here. is this something that the military lead government in molly consoles, or is it something that's going to have to wait until that is a democratically elected civilian led government? this occurred, this is the situation in my lee and across the side is so that we can't make it a issue of democracy or no democracy can. so whatever government is in place, there is something that can be done today tomorrow,
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next more immediately. so what i, what i spect molly to do is try to work more closely with the regional government. i know the con, the dynamic is different because it's a cool go. and nicole was final point because now govern. but we have to look at the solution, a real regional response that is truly regional, not a friend lead response or defense. i wish i was fields, but one that i really expand to include all of the players individual like are, is a wires and you are not part of the coalition to combat terrorism in, in the continental part of the continent where most of the values we've seen across more country so molly can solve this problem, but it will need to do better to coordinate with his neighbors. the gentleman, i'm afraid we're going to have to leave it with rush time. thank you very much indeed for being with us for pre support gay of a way going to and andrew leibovich as always, thank you for watching. don't forget, you can see the program again at any time. just by going to the website. you'll
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find that at al jazeera dot com for further discussion. you can join us on facebook page that's at facebook dot com, forward slash ha inside story. and you can draw the conversation on twitter handle at ha, inside story. for me, adrian. again, the whole team here and thanks for watching, i'll see awe at night in stockholm suburb somali monday patrol the streets bully ski and know a lack of clean kind of gang violence. they use
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a maternal approach to prevent time a had a do warehouse, but a bit to button in the stories. we don't often hear told by the people who lived them. mothers of ring could be. this is europe on al jazeera, more than 30 years after the assassination of burkina, faso iconic liter thomas sung, gotta those charged with his killing are going on trial among them. his success plays compound is the countries long search for justice. find them coming to an end . the sango taught special coverage from october 11th on al jazeera. when freedom of the press is under threats. in all he just called thought genuinely about your thoughts towards the beijing government step outside the mainstream. the has been a policy keep implement here system access towards the internet, shift the focus, but pandemic has turned out to be
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a handy little pretext for the prime minister to clamp down on the press covering away the news discovered the listening post on a just 0 ah. ready 2, hello again, peter toby here in dough had the top stories on al jazeera senior, us and taliban officials have begun talks in kat up. it's the 1st in person meeting since american troops left afghanistan. i still in afghanistan is high on the agenda after a suicide bomber killed 60 people on friday. natasha graham has more from doha, from the americans point of view. what this meeting is, is a continuation quote of pragmatic entangle meds with the taliban on issues of vital national security.


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