tv [untitled] July 5, 2021 9:00am-9:31am +03
people being the same for be fully marked here for the fitness center. we are the ones traveling the extra mile where auto media don't go. we go there and we give them a time to tell their story. the news. hello, i'm darn jordan, and the top stories here on jazz era. 11 days after an apartment building in florida, partially collapsed. what was left of the structure has not been demolished me to destroy what remained of the apartments near miami were brought forward as the region braces, a tropical storm elsa, which is expected to reach the florida coast on tuesday. authority say the demolition will help search and recovery efforts. 24 people have been confirmed dead. 121 still missing. currently doug has more from miami beach in florida. they
spent the greater part of sunday drilling holes into the bottom of the building where they would then put these explosive charges and brought the building down with a process known as energetic leveling. but right now we do have crews on seen on the side of the of the demolition, just to make sure that everything is fine, that all the, all the explosions that were supposed to go off and did in fact go off. and they are due to resumed their search and rescue operation as soon as possible. we have to remember that last year, during the 4th of july, miami was in the grips of the of the cove at pandemic. we were basically the epicenter for the us at the time, and there were no real firework display to speak of the mood was subdued as well. so you had a lot of people prior to this collapse, obviously who had been eagerly looking forward to just let loose and that's exactly what they were doing about an hour away from where i am in fort fort lauderdale.
but that was obviously not the case today. people here are concerned and they're upset, they're sad, there's a lot to be sad about. and there has been a review across the county of miami dade, for all buildings that are older than 40 years old, to make sure that there are no issues there with the structure of the building and anything else that might lead to some kind of a problem. similar to what we saw in surfside the last week and what just finished the coming down tropical storm elsa is making its way towards florida and has made landfill in eastern cuba. it's broad strong when 95 kilometers an hour and heavy rain forecasters are wanting a flash flooding and mud slides. a storm has already about several carry an island killing at least 3 people. emergency teams in thailand are battling to contain a fire factory near bangkok, sand port. the fire began with a manufacturing plant following an explosion. the blast was powerful enough to
shake a terminal building inside the airport. 11 people have been injured. people have been ordered to evacuate as there are fears of more explosions from leaking chemicals. the philippines military says all 96 people on board, one of its planes that crashed on sunday had been accounted for. 47 soldiers died, as well as 3 people on the ground. when the c 130, hercules went down as it was landing on hold island. 49 soldiers survived the crash . most of them had just completed basic training and were due to join operations against our groups in the region. former south african president, jacob zoom has defied a deadline set by the nation's top court to surrender to police. the 79 year old join supporters who rallied outside your home and in canada, the promising to resist any attempt to arrest him. zoom was found guilty of contempt of court, sending to appear before a corruption inquiry. he faces 15 months in prison and on friday, applying to the court,
the sentence to be unknown. effective that i was busted with a punitive jail sentence without trial is something which should in induce a sense of shock to all those who cherish freedom. and the rule of law, south africa is fast sliding bag too. but the type group and the assembly elected after months of protest in chile has begun meeting to draw a new constitution and indigenous women will lead the process. the new charter replaced the one inherited from the military government of august, initiate those the headlines, and he's continues here now to 0 off to the bottom line station. thanks for watching bye for now. i
me hi, i'm steve clements and i have a question with donald trump back in the limelight. who should be more scared? democrats or republicans? let's get to the bottom line. ah, how long has it been since you've heard this voice? we won the election twice. and it's possible we'll have to win it a 3rd time responsible. yes. spoke to the 2nd coming of trump or the 3rd, depending on how you count. the former president is back with a vengeance. and from your reaction to that clip, you can tell where you stand on the american political spectrum. do you long for the time when he filled your days and nights with pox of his grievances, personal pet peeves, culture wars and anger? or is it the exact opposite? and you're wondering why we're still talking about him?
well, love him or not this week. donald trump's been holding campaign like rallies around the country, repeating the big lie that he won the last election, promising revenge against the republicans that don't agree with him vilifying immigration and immigrants, and of course blasting the media and the democrats and throughout it all. he did what he does best tease the media about whether he'll run for president, again in 2024. so is it a smart strategy for republicans to indulge trump and tie their future to him? but at the same time, is it safe for anyone to pretend that he doesn't exist? today we're talking with one of the democratic party who leading political strategist. so linda lake, who advice candidate, joe biden, countless democratic candidates over the years. and it's the president of her own pulling firm lake research partners and dan hopkins, professor of political science at the university of pennsylvania, whose research focuses on american elections and public opinion. it's really great to have you both here. so let me start with you, and i'll just ask you the same question. who we had president trump back in ohio,
then back to the border is going to be in florida. who should worry more of the republicans or the democrats about his, you know, return to rallies. well, i think he public to worry the most because it's the return to the division and strive and personal politics that a lot of voters remember, we won by 7000000 those rejected in this last election. but i think the democrats should be worried if they ignored him, and we don't, we don't take him for granted. but we also have no idea what kind of impact you'll have on the off year election when he's not actually on the ballot. and the republican should be very worried that they're taking a short term fix. that is a long term addiction den. i'd love to get your views on this, but i was very, very taken with an article that you wrote recently and 538 my my audience. i'll say you go to 538, dot com. and you can read his piece called how trump redefine conservatism. and in
it you taught, start with the story of senator pat to me for my audience center. pat toomey may not be a household name, but he's important. he's a senator from pennsylvania and he used to be the face of then new conservatism, anti tax, you know, really hard core conservative. well, i had a friend who had lunch with pat to me today in pennsylvania. and they were talking to that time this friend was a leading brand name democrat who lamented the loss for the country of pat to me. so i guess if pat toomey has been moved to the fringe, what has happened to the republican party? i really appreciate your pointing out that steady and yes, senator pat, to me is my home state senator here in pennsylvania in 2004 pat to me primary and almost be a long time incumbent republican arlen specter and you're right for years with the face of republican anti tax kind of fiscal conservatism. but with a study in
a study that i did with my colleague cons, know all. we found that very quickly after trump emerged on the political scene, political activists right and left, started to define who is most conservative, not in terms of traditional tax ben politics. but instead in terms of politicians, relationship to donald trump. so in our april $22021.00 survey, what we found is that the politicians who active it's rated as most conservative were consistently either president for president trump himself, or those in president trump orbit. might pen. josh holly and i think that is a testament to the fact that donald trump, through running and servings president for 4 years, did manage to redefine and who, who is conservative and who is not like by home state senator pat to me right now we seem to have the civil war is going on a both party. so the real question i have for you is one of the preeminent pollsters and political advisors in this country is,
what do americans want and are the parties as we see them today, realigning reorganizing themselves in ways that are going to be very surprising for us. well, i think that one of the things is that everyone has remarked on, it's just how polarized everything is and people are really struck. i mean, we can take extremely positive policies, but the infrastructure, viola, the family back and you just put it in front. c of it joe buys plan the infrastructure bill, and we get republicans switching for me for the thing by 60 percent to being against the thing by 67 percent. so it's really striking how part of suddenly polarized things are i will say that the democrats are not very divided. and when you look at the polling data, 8695 percent of democrats are behind our united actually. even when there's somebody that we might disagree with on
a one end of the party or the other democrats are united with getting this plan forward, moving the country forward and they're really remarkably united behind the agenda. i think one of the biggest questions out there is one in 2022 in 2024 way to young people start to take over. the electric went in 2024. they will be the biggest share of the electric jans. the years are bigger than millennials, people don't realize this, but the jim cohort that is coming down the pipe and doesn't vote right now isn't all eligible is going to be bigger even than millennials combined. their style of the democratic and everything that the republicans are doing right now. to sure trump to reinforce their party, to save themselves in the short term, makes it harder for them to win this both. and the use vote in the long term. the culture award, the cancer called share the racism in tolerance,
the transgender politics, the women's rights, all of that is making it much, much harder to hold on to these young voter linda, before we go broader, can you tell our audience what the age range is for gens ears in millennials, and are they all democrats? are they split? you know, do you have divides within these gen g and millennial voters that are coming online as a really good question? and there are some disagreements. i love my colleague, dan here to, to jump in as well, but the young voters are generally considered either under 39 or under 34. and the miller and the gen fears are considered to be under $24.00 under $22.00. there's some disagreement because it's the cohort, but that gives you an idea of who they are. there are divisions, obviously big divisions by education, by race, some of the same things that promote divisions among older voters. but what ever
cohort you're looking at? the younger voters of that cohort, whether it's college educated. busy or rural, or small business owners or whatever you look like the younger people in that are significant, more democratic than the older people in that cohort. and that includes on issues to like young evangelicals, very supportive climate change politics. so again, whatever covert you're looking at, whatever demographic group, when you look at the young ones are significantly more democratic. overall, the cohort is about 60 percent democratic. right, dan, how the danny, how do you look at those divides, dan, how do you look at those divides and, and, you know, when you, when you sort of look at what this next generation coming on was, you know, to you for whatever it's worth. and you know, it's basically a small slice of life. when i look at donald trump at these rallies, i do see a lot of young people, but i don't know how what, how larger,
smaller percentage of that is of all young people, but your thoughts. so these are great questions, and i think one of the things to know about younger generation is that they are the most ethnically in racially diverse generations as linda, sad. and so even if young generation simply voted in the ways that they're older compatriots did within their ethnic and racial group, you would still see because the younger generations are more hispanic, more african american, you would still see them, meaning, democratic. it's also interestingly the case that generations often carry the experiences of their kind of late adolescence in early adulthood through for generation. so you can still see today in registration statistics and in partisan identification, the echoes of roosevelt of eisenhower, of kennedy. and i think that one of the cylinder was saying, you know, this doesn't mean that the democrats are destined to win elections or republicans
are destined to boot them. but it does mean that there is now a generation entering the electorate who means democratic and that i would expect for certainly 20222024. those voters who, you know, under 30, who are just coming into the electorate, are going to lean democratic and going to help the democrats offset losses they may have with older voters. well, let, you know, part of the reason i really want to do this show with both of you is that donald trump is back. he's, you know, maybe, you know, i think he made less headlines with his return than maybe a lot of other people you know, hoped for. but nonetheless, he's back and he's sending signals that he might run in 2024. and it's linda just said, at least he's trying to influence the race in 2022, and slid in your ear or the smartest democratic pulse right now. as you kind of look at 2022, you got to 50 to 50 balance of senators the united states senate,
and i think what you've got 5, i don't know the number, but i think is about how 5 feet or something the house do democrats understand that while they hear your numbers and the demographic change, they're really in a fragile situation. and they totally understand it. and i think democrats are very, very concerned about the 2 year where voters just decide, well, let me balance the president even if i like him, were very, very worried about structural changes like jeron, man, during and the voter suppression. and of course, there been more loss and, and damaging was than ever before, which shows the republicans there were a do. were worried about winning down ballot races like attorney general's and secretary of state because they can determine a lot what happens with the elections in the state. so i think that there's a lot to be concerned about in 2020 to $1.00 of the reasons we're talking about modifying the filibuster, passing things through reconciliation is i think the democrats salvation will come
from delivering results. and some of those results will be, was with republicans, and some of those results will be without them. and then those republicans are going to have to explain, why did you vote against the subsidy chest? why did you vote against child care tax credits? why did you vote against elder care for my mother? and they're going to really have to explain that to women. dan, is there a reckoning coming for those republicans who voted or didn't vote the way? so linda said, i mean one of the reasons i like your piece so much is a great analysis you are, you didn't run away from the politics of it. and i'm just asking like in this moment, if, if attorney general bill bar is no longer a good republican and he was like one of tom's biggest, if vice president mike pants is no longer is now booed and called a traitor and they have, you know, pictures of a hangman's noose with mike pence on it. i guess my question is on one hand that seems scary. on the other hand, maybe democrats, this is a good side show and then you kind of look at the country in the independence or
out there say, let the media are alive. wow. well, there's a lot there. i think one key thing to keep in mind is that and so linda alluded to this very, very reliably, the party that holds the president, the loses seats in mid term elections. right? there has only been 2 exceptions in the last 90 years. so for our audience, just let me interrupt. so for our audience, mid term elections, we're talking about is 2022 next year. so just wanted to punctuate that point. go ahead. absolutely, and i think what's critical to know then is yeah, the democrats go into this election facing headwind having to defend senate seats in traditionally republican places like arizona in georgia. and at the same time yeah, clinging to a very, very narrow house. majority right now. and facing the prospect of redistricting that could alone tip the balance even before. busy we, you know, the voters get their say,
i think it's also really important to distinguish the periodic. you know what happens in elections when millions and millions of voters get to cast their views from the what's going on right now, which is positioning within the parties for a much smaller audience and activists in journalists. and i think that when we thinking about donald trump's kind of return to prominence, to rallies and whatnot. one of the critical questions is about the maneuvering within the republican party. is these fights over who's going to define what the republican party stands for? and i think that what we should expect is, in 2022, the democrats arm are likely to lose seats, certainly in the house of representatives and quite possibly in the senate. and so i think that there may well be a reckoning, but the extent to which a reckoning comes, it's going to come more from long term and intro party dynamics than i think it's going to come be delivered from voters who, you know, everything we know about republican primary and general election voters right now
is that, you know, donald trump is, is their idea of a very strong candidate. i appreciate that. so linda, as you know, i've spent some time with president biden, when he was vice president. i interviewed him a good number of times and i, you know, i think if truth be told, he basically thought that in the, in the last, in the election of donald trump, it hillary clinton, a donald trump, is going to pull it out because he said to me, you know, in an, on the record, the democratic party had become a party of snobs that it looked down on people that it had forgotten how to connect with real people and their suffering and where they were. and so when you kind of go through many of the rights causes, you just laid out and others, and you kind of like, i mean, i know this over simplifies if you take brooklyn, new york, which used to be street. but now it's become pause and you try to take brooklyn is the frame that doesn't look like something that has an on ramp for a lot of americans? does the democratic party and its structure even under joe biden, still have
a snob problem. i think it does have a snob problem and that comes particularly when it's around the economy because number on the voters are more interested in the economy then in what doctor says their kids are reading in school. now if we engage in debate back, then we become part of the problem to what's good news is the republicans are running on that and, and joe biden and president biden is not taking the bait. he is focus solely on cobra and the economy and getting a stanford going again. and we have a game changing opportunity here. if we kind of knew were covered. and if we can pass the jobs in the family plan and people see us better on the economy, then we will change politics. 7 the country for the next 10 years, up and down the ballot. democrats do not when, when we're not ahead on the company. and in 2016 we were behind on the economy.
it's one of the reasons we live. so pulling up on who's going to be good for jobs, who's going to be good for your kitchen table economics, your pocket book. this is a game changing opportunity for us. and there's one person in america who really gets that it's president by dan, i'm going to ask you to respond the same thing. but i want to ask you slightly different. i spent a lot of time with republicans and democrats, all different levels and colors and flavors and around the country. but one of the things that becomes very clear to me is that the way that people on different sides of the aisle is it's define. now donald trump conservatism, what they care about, how they look at the government, you know, how they look at the wars in afghanistan, you know, whatever it may be. it's very different. you know, it's, i wouldn't even call it partisan. it's just gravity works differently on this side at, from way gravity works on this side. and, you know, i think a lot of people recklessly call this the cult of donald trump, or the, maybe they, you know, talk about the q and on conspiracy. they talk about evangelicals,
which may all be part of that. but my question to you is, isn't irrationality on their side, on, on the republican side, or are there authentic, you know, genuine dimensions to their support for president former president, trump that are rational and logical that the other side is not understanding. that makes sense. it does make sense, and i mean, one of the oldest questions i could go grab many books from my bookshelves right here on this question of whether we think, you know, is the public rational. i think that maybe one way to frame it is that republicans are interested in a set of cultural, often symbolic issues. they are some of the issues that our foremost, particularly in the minds of some republican activists, are not actually the subject of public policy. right. so donald trump man waves when early in his term, he attacked football players who wouldn't stand for the national anthem? no, he wasn't considering any executive action. any legislative push related to that.
it's simply a symbol of where we are as a country. and i think that one of the challenges is that the republican party, certainly the, the trump wing of the republican party, which has been attendant, is very interested in the set of issues. you know, we mentioned doctor says, somewhat viciously. but it's interested in a set of cultural issues that critical race theory that are, to some extent, not the objects of public policy. and so i think that we to, we also do ourselves a disservice if we focus on today's hot issue on twitter and, and get away from it. i think i saw it was making this point in a way by, by pointing to this and charlie, the economy rate, voters are not engaged in the day to day attacks that happen on twitter or even on, you know, ever for it on, on, even the best you know, television chips,
right. but voters do engage on the question of what the economy look like. how is you know, how the president and his or her party doing? and i think that, you know, those of us who follow politics religiously, want to know what ted cruz said this morning or where he flew on vacation. but for many, many voters politic is not the 1st thing. it's not even the 10 thing on their mind . and i think they come when we get towards election, they're then going to ask themselves the kinds of questions that the lender with enough about the conditions, the economy, about how the 2 parties are doing. but i think that politics is that you might think of it as a kind of play where there are a few of us who are watching very closely. but most of the audience is out in the lobby and missing most of the screaming. thank you. so linda, you both have said today that, that in quino, classically historically and elections that mid term election that 2022 election is usually a balancer against the president's party. and so we have this coming up but,
but so linda, you know, you're not helping the republican side to need to see the future and see in the christ of all your help. the democrats are there, things they can do. you've talked to in the past about health care, but are there issues or framing or scaffolding that can change that historic pattern in your view? significantly enough. so that, that donald trump serge, which we're seeing right now with him coming back when you effect it, is less significant than it might otherwise be. yes, and i think the administration is doing a lot of that. there are 3 things we can do. point number one, when the and i think this administration is trying as hard as it can to when the economy and it's not when the macro economy or when the numbers of the council economic advisors. it's when the economy a kitchen table. the thing we can do is get out our boat and we need to re i, our boat is not debating whether to vote for joe biden or somebody of our our folks drop off more and off year elections. we had some turnout issues,
especially because of coven, and getting out our boat is going to be absolutely critical. and then the 3rd thing i think is that to elect donald trump the donald trump, as much as he can be, particularly just suburban women in suburban mom. we are back to the days of the waitress and the soccer moms being the determinant vote. and the 2020, i'll make a prediction right now women, it will women, you will decide. what funny do alexis, do they vote provide and democrats, and then there are above men, vote for the republicans. and let donald trump be donald trump as much as he can be . i was kind of very, he didn't average the fact that that and that rejected again, well folks, unfortunately were out of time. this is really terrific. i'd love to get a one word. you have a one word answer, dan, on what matters most in the election. you've got, you've got a chance. i'm a professor, one word, it's impossible or suburbs. there you go. well, this is a great conversation. thank you both democratic strategist, linda lake,
political science professor, dan hopkins. thank you both for being with us today. really appreciate it and we'll see what happens. so what's the bottom line? millions and millions of americans still believe that donald trump is their great white hope for them. he's a straight talker who doesn't abide by the rules. doesn't care about traditional lines between conservative and liberal, or democrat, and republican and he does whatever he likes. they love it, trump is rude and obnoxious, and you could care less about your feelings. maybe that's really what trump ism is about for so many people, they're frustrated and they vent their anger through him. as for his pugnacious policies, while they're just collateral damage for the nerds to worry about, we have to deal with it. the scariest thing about his strategy is that it might just work again. my guess, think that democrats are scrambling to appeal to a majority of americans, but are they succeeding? it's really hard to tell the cold reality is it about 3 years donald trump or a trump like clone, could be back in the white house in american politics. never say never, and that's the bottom line ah.
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and even trust. i feel like i'm alive, but i know i am a machine origins of this species on out to 0. 0, ah. hello, i'm darn jordan in doha, with a quick reminder headlines here on 0, what remained of a partially collapsed apartment building. the miami in the us state of florida has been demolished plans abroad for what does the region braces for tropical storm elsa, which is expected to reach the florida coast on tuesday. authority say the demolition will help search and recovery efforts. 24 people have been confirmed dead in a 121.