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tv   Counting the Cost  Al Jazeera  April 20, 2021 8:30am-9:00am +03

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specked like you know the temperature we have to really designed things to work for negative 100 degrees c. i mean the more inverter itself is actually live in the market much fewer unlike a lot of the other electronic live in the warm box box you see in the bottoms actually that live in the top order so i mean i think that this is part of the science we have to do a lot of mike can designing for like negative under degrees which is very uncommon using electronics we use on earth you know what electron it goes negative 40 c. and the same time we have to consider a lot of the space radiation very gratian for the trip you know on a lot of other things we have to consider. it without is there are these are all top stories after 3 weeks of witness and expert testimony jury deliberations have begun in the trial of the for many athletes police officer accused of killing george floyd derek 7 is facing 2 mehta jaja is and manslaughter bus and train stations in new delhi have been overwhelmed
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by thousands of daily wage michael ware has fleeing the city as a weeklong cave in 1000 knocked down comes into effect in his reports of more than 200000 new cases for a 6th straight day and a record number of deaths is a broad number has more from new delhi. no one is allowed to leave their homes unless they work in essential services or go out to get essential supplies the delhi government made the announcement on monday with just a few hours notice because the what they call it a curfew which is essentially all of the same restrictions that were in place last year during the lockdown that came into force at 10 pm on monday night after they made that announcement we have seen a very large numbers of migrant workers people who work in different states to where they're from who don't live in delhi crowding one of the biggest bus stations russian state media are reporting moscow plans to block parts of the black sea to
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foreign ships for 6 months the u.s. as russia could restrict access to ukrainian ports in the sea of of and that it marks another attempt by moscow to destabilize the country. marks the end of the castro era with the transfer of power to a new leader president miguel diaz colonel takes over from raul castro as communist party chief the most powerful position in cuba the succession marks the end of 6 decades of rule by castro and his brother. former u.s. vice president a liberal icon award died at the age of 93 in those days before he ran against ronald reagan for the white house becoming the 1st nominee for a major party to pick a woman as his running mates. of state now with all the headlines on the back with more news on al jazeera after counting the costs stay with us. they came from the countryside to cairo and became part of a life. they say just as different from be in the former al-jazeera world meets the
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man who's been keeping a close eye on residential life in the big cities for decades but who may now be passing into history. see for movie he wasn't born but he's now managed by a security company the doman of egypt on al-jazeera. hello i'm kemal santa maria this is counting the cost on al-jazeera weekly look at the world of business and economics this week turkey versus the markets from unconventional economics to the firing of central bank governors it's all on sessile the international investors look at whether turkey's economy could be heading for a bust just in time for elections and 2023 also this week mozambique huge gas
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reserves big investors but also an insurgency that could end its route out of poverty and a court victory for the employees of south asia's ship breakers but could it also see the demise of the industry that scarred the beaches from bangladesh to pakistan . in just 2 years' time turkey will mark a 100 years since its inception as a modern republic and the man on the 100 lire note mustapha kemal ataturk was elected its 1st president but almost a century later and the man currently holding that office is finding himself in an uphill economic battle with elections not far away which up type of prime minister 2003 president from 2014 has always been an expansionist capitalizing on turkey's strategic position both geographically and politically i can 2011 when he announced
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a controversial plan to build the stand bull canal it would run parallel to the bosphorus now the problem is that renewed efforts to get that project moving again is open up a real can of worms there is a possible breach of a treaty that has kept the peace and the traffic flowing through the bosphorus to just who will pay for it given the states had to spend heavily on the pandemic its debts of sorts to $270000000000.00. but on top of that international investors have been losing faith and thora tarion rule and unconventional economics for the last few years maybe the simplest way for us to illustrate this is by using the turkish currency the lira as a barometer of confidence in the country economy and the president's so what you're looking at starts in 2003 on the far left it goes all the way up to today and remember to keep this in mind when we talk about a currency weakening against the dollar we actually see it rising in value i know
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it looks odd but trust me this is not a good reflection on the colony rising is bad so here we go 1st decade in power 2003 to 2013 ish strong growth thanks to all that investment in infrastructure generate well received by the international investors the currency is strong then we have what turns out to be a key moment or at least a turning point july the 15th of 2016 the failed coup attempt and surprisingly the currency drops rising on a graph to the point where $1.00 buys around 3 lira organs 132018 then us president donald trump imposes tariffs on steel and aluminum bank the currency crashes 20 percent but over the 12 months to that point the lira had already slumped 40 percent again rising on a graph pushing it into recession much of that has to do with consolidating power post attempted coup it's unnerved the investors at $6.00 lira to the dollar now then there are these unorthodox economic policies have been talking about march the
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22nd of this year 2021 early one fires his 3rd central bank chief in 2 years this is because he raised interest rates to curb inflation which is currently at 16 percent about the right thing to do but a dollar is now buying $8.00 lira now the opposing argument to all of this is that turkey's economy actually grew close to 6 percent. during a pandemic making it and china one of only 2 nations in the g 20 to actually register growth but there's that inflation at 16 percent that i mentioned is the consumer inflation of 30 percent kind of wipes out all of those games as does turkey central bank having to spend an estimated $100000000000.00 defending the currency and as you see from our chart that has been an entirely losing battle so what next well i guess this week has been predicting a boom and bust cycle ending in a crash around the time of the 2023 presidential election he also rightly predicted
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back in 2017 that with the turkish economy expanding faster than china's all would not end well which he didn't with us now and scott from london charlie robertson the global chief economist with renee sants capital charly good to have you with us tell me about this boom and bust cycles and what led you to that sort of pattern in conclusion in the 1st place we have a watching this happen over $1015.00 well actually maybe generations maybe even centuries but it's become something financial markets have got very. lucky tries to overheat its economy with too much lending that widens out the current account deficit and then surely the currency crashes they have to hike interest rates lending stops and we had a bust what's been getting problematic for tell you a key is that this is been happening close. the gaps between these crashes have
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been happening well closely and the depth of the crashes has been even bigger and apparently it's all going to come to a head in 2023 to coincide with the elections you still holding on to that belief as anything that's happened in the last well that's just to say this year to change your view alter your view at all if anything i'm concerned is going to be proof forward sucking the very central bank governor. the court appointed at the end of 2020 they've done a great job stabilizing the economy stabilizing the currency strengthening it in fact getting foreigners to put money back into turkey when he was got rid of just a few weeks ago the guarantee it will be cutting rates here than it should be that we are going to see another boom and market faith that that tell you he's going to get better from here is is 'd act of rock bottom so no post pandemic
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bounce the type of thing which a lot of countries are looking for open for. not as much of a bounce as there should be unfortunately this 3rd wave we're seeing in so many countries is hitting tourism i thought we were going to get much better tourism figures this 2nd quarter of 2021 the numbers are going to be ready bad not helped by least half a 1000000 russians being banned from coming over the next 6 to 8 weeks thanks to this folding out between russia and turkey again so it's looking tough yes there could still be a bounce we might still get another. as a result of the interest rate cuts this new governor will deliver some point we will get a bit of a burger perhaps in 20 twentieth's or followed by a bust and maybe late 4243 charlie in researching this and looking at turkey's economy particularly sensitive one it's been it's been all about international investors they've been so important to the country tell me why why are they so dependent i mean turkey is a big country it's got
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a big population i would think and you know maybe you can explain to us that it could be a little more self-sufficient than it is yeah look it's and there are countries that have got their own energy resources of that help whether that's nuclear power fronts all or coal or wind electricity and so on in other countries turkey hasn't got up and they are building into a power stations now trying to do something to to reduce us so once you strip out the energy factor from their current account they've often been closer to balance than science in conscious but i think it's they it's the energy side of the stories being a problem the 2nd issue is they just haven't got enough f.d.r. from direct investment into manufacturing to give themselves the big export manufacturing base that are korea or taiwan has got and i think that's another factor which is and the difficulty is that one isn't helping here where you have
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this rapid boom bust cycle. that scares investors away it doesn't tempt the men ok so we've got lower foreign investment we've got a currency that's in all sorts of trouble is there an opportunity here charlie is there an opportunity to rebalance the economy to get exports moving again to make lemonade when life gives you lemons absolutely that this should be the currency is the cheapest in emerging markets based on our bottle and we very rarely ever seen a currency in this shape and emerging markets relative to its own history in real terms so this is a fantastic opportunity to move away from the consumption model of bank lending driving up consumption driving up imports and then crushing and moving towards an export that investment led model which just works so well for asia and in 2890 when turkey had its terrible prices then i hoped i put in the risks on the good risk
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scenario that that's what he would do but i just said leopards don't tend to change their spots and i suspect we're going to go back to the boom and bust and of course that that is what's happened so unfortunately yes it's a great opportunity for executives to change the model but. it's not happening and i'm the sacking of the central bank governor right so all of this then moves back to president himself the man who is leading all the big decisions what is his popularity really light these days because inflation is high unemployment is high but then when i looked at a different popularity poll some was saying his popularity was at the highest it's been others were saying it's crashing to the floor and i guess that's where you want to believe at any point in time what's your take well he's a he's a must a full color session terrible economist and if he is the markets but a masterful politician and he has an ability to tap the issues which which helped
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deliver him electoral success and is done so for 20 years however there is a rising challenge now from opposition parties that is that the new man as of old we stumble out of i'm korea who are potential challenges to him. and after 20 years you've got to say is this going to be a decent chance that people will. well vote for change finally but you know for some of the issues it doesn't matter so much inflation for example it doesn't matter so much if if you save it in gold and foreign currency and want to be very clever to do in the last few years just make sure that most of their saves are gold and foreign currency or realistic and those old inflation hedges so that they're less although doubt the inflation rate they've worked out a way of managing to runs economic policies that doesn't hurt middle class wealth so much so i suspect other problem is going to be the bigger issue. you can
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actually deliver some real income growth over the next year or 2 charlie rose and so interesting talking to you about this thank you so much for your time thank you . to something completely different now liquefied natural gas mozambique and i so let me explain ellen g. is seen as a transitional solution between oil and green renewables but the world is actually facing a shortage of supplies in the coming decades and here's one reason why mozambique had been expected to start churning out gas later this decade to partially fill the void now for a low income debt laden country that revenue would be very welcome and billions are being poured into infrastructure by foreign corporations to make that happen but here's the twist where the richest deposits are in the north there is a vicious insurgency linked to i saw thousands of gas workers mostly immigrants
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from more affluent nations barely escaped an onslaught last month while tens of thousands of locals had to abandon their homes now with most communications still severed it is hard to gauge exactly what happened after insurgents hit the town of palma the local governor reported significant loss of life and infrastructure destroyed on the map we've got the on shore facilities there and then marked in yellow those extremely valuable offshore fields mozambican troops backed by south african mercenaries to 10 days to regain control of all that. so that's the background here is the analysis now with jasmine autumn and jasmine's in africa business risk and security analyst with the armed conflict location and event data project joining us from pretoria in south africa this week thank you so much for your time i want to sort of split this into the issue of insurgency and then the issue of natural gas in mozambique on the insurgency is mozambique capable of dealing with this or doesn't need more help i mean. that was 30 years
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there has been. started treated i know that that individual unit of the. then military simply do not have a man nor that opacity to be able to direct them i mean we are seeing. and hearing now that their primary responsibility is back with the military they meet assistance beyond training so that's the primary side the secondary was the. russian mercenaries who were brought in there was a south african advisory group brought in as well did they make a noticeable difference in terms of darkness. that might get there and the ground forces and the support they could get from it was had rushed into. a tragic result some of them by friendly fire some of brain behavior the dock it buys
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you. also. had a situation of all odds against it was a mission they had to i guess the whole time we've been seeing a mission that no permission from ground forces and i gather want to. quarter 5. some things there i have the sky operation had some impact and wash up also due to be above my back that actually now they contact us and get i'm not even anymore in terms of countering with a back to your. guard who. is no. strategy at play did anyone else more wider afield offer any assistance the u.s. has got its own interests or it was looking at investing this certainly france has
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got to they want to get involved at all before i get to them i just want to say that they are still a few mysteries running around him and he said this in reality round at this point in time needless to say with great opportunity but if strong narrow the united states. during the race for it to match training is going to have little impact it is simply too short term so frons the dog has gone. silent mode is a basic skeleton. and i don't foresee him coming back and still the government has proven that they can provide the security needed i can see that don't pick up and running with the men makes about 218 months trust me just to say has an interest. and we all have seen in so how we want to be the
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dominant force and. iraq if you cation able base so it's not going well at this level little the sort of response level to the insurgency and then below that you've got the issues to do with the actual gas exploration the fact that locals were relocated the fact that i didn't get much company. nation to the government in mozambique just get this wrong for their own people in the rush to explore and exploit all of the stats i'm going to use in a nutshell my 1st big knol game they were just me at band aid was organized crime and then i think there's a fire great link to these remixed i'm not getting at their local roots aka dominant but i want your us to understand this is not about i mean about you that he's angry we would have massive civil. case it either extremists or he said. let's get
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a rise in god and bs let me state he's trying to hijack it and they'll wish the media has propagated and given a mistake this which they simply do not have with insurgency at this point in time so then who's who which group is really in play here because there are reports and i know communications has not been great from that area but they were reports of locals being attacked themselves which makes you start to wonder well who's really doing the attacking. at this point in time we set with the problem some people not being present from the start as not happy to lie on our telegram over again that channel created they were b.o.c. why the object and what they want to achieve removed about double bed what is. this meow uprising all about 90000 about 3000
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insurgents supporting boehm. have a clear anti government sentiment and do not want to see any full of mozambican government brazen. and piracy failure and of money as the whole situation. just went off a tremendous to talk to about this thank you for your time and for your expertise. finally where does all our plastic electronic and toxic waste end up broadly speaking it gets drawn on a ship like this and sent to places like china indonesia and malaysia now china has made a push back and banned imports of rubbish but really asia has been a dumping ground for the industrialized world's cast offs for way too long is a thought by what about these actual ships in some cases they have been sent to the scrap yards as well in bangladesh india and pakistan when their useful life is over
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they're sent to the so-called ship breakers but even that now could be under threat after a landmark ruling from a london court it said that a shipping company selling a vessel could oh a legal duty of care to the ship breaking work is in bangladesh maims hamid a begum whose husband fell to his death while working 183-0000 ton oil tanker on a beach in chittagong can now sued the shipping company around u.k. in london with us from london to talk about this is all of the holidays a partner of the u.k. based law firm li day which is representing the wife of that deceased worker all of the thank you for your time how may debate them tell us about what happened to her husband and how you came to be involved well. a bangladeshi national who lives or lived in just the grove and in bangladesh with her husband who was a ship breaking worker on the beaches there it was working in the zuma ship. when
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he did dismantling bustles like this was the subject of this case the act. when he in 28 in heathrow from his death from a ship and instantly was dismantling it. this resulted in. life being pretty much torn apart. he was. so so. support. she was left with nothing along with the. village in order to. receive very little compensation in bangladesh so she approached us. and asked for assistance so take me through the ruling then the idea that if and it's in this case as you say marin u.k.
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or if i had a ship and sold it on am i still responsible for it is there still a duty of kate what happens with regards to after i've sold them well. the ship breaking industry as a whole. something like 80 percent of the world supertankers to south asian beaches either in india pakistan bangladesh they are. where it's commonly known in the vessels will be dismantled in extremely unsafe and hazardous conditions just on the beaches with. a minimal protection also can causing significant environmental damage to the areas. this is a practice it's been going on for 2030 years with pretty much total impunity. when these vessels come to the end of their life they are effectively toxic waste. they contain extremely hazardous substances like us festal p.c.p.'s and other you
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know oils and other substances like that and they're also extremely hard to dismantle in a safe way and the shipping companies shipping industry send these vessels to south asia to a great profit when they could send them to other countries where there are safer conditions that would result in memphis even less money so the basis of this case is the. given they know that this is what will happen that they know that there are no safe conditions in these be on these beaches that it's very likely that a was or workers will be injured or die when they dismantle these vessels and they send them that profit. in the knowledge that they should be held liable the things they were. i was i met lee we want to interrupt you ultimately we want the working conditions to improve that would be the the
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endgame here does this case help push things in that direction or actually could it end up benefiting you know all the unregistered similar facilities the work was getting pushed to them unregulated ones well we would hope that it would improve conditions you know if. if the the companies are sending best to south asia effectively in control of where they where they end up and if they insist on their working conditions in these yeah then they sort of calls for the working conditions so the power lies with the shipping companies know with the shipyards and that sense but what about the laws that i just not stringent enough in the 1st place you're saying about responsibility for the companies what about actual legal responsibility and rules that that govern the industry well absolutely i mean it's obviously there's a degree of responsibility in bangladesh and india and pakistan as well.
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make sure that there is sufficient regulation unfortunately there aren't. that of the something that needs to be addressed as well as ultimately if there is a desire. for shipping companies to send vessel to these areas then you know there will be. conditions for that that. the power does laurie with with the shipping companies as well. it's not a story we hear a lot about so i'm glad we could talk to you about it all of the holland joining us from london thank you thank you. and that is our show for this week to get in touch with me want to know what you think what you want to see on the show you can tweet or. use the hashtag you can see if you would please e-mail us what they're counting the cost down to 0. and a small few online as well as al-jazeera dot com slash the thing that takes you
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straight to a page of individual reports and entire episodes for you to catch up on. that is it for this edition of counting the cost on come on santa maria from the whole team thanks for joining us the news on al-jazeera. i mean like a vase in the south of india to find out how a tiny bat in this cave brought an extensive mining operation to a standstill coronavirus he wept across the world with devastating effect and it's widely believed to be connected to the legal wildlife trade here in vietnam we visit a rescue center for some of the world's most threatened animal and joining the call for an end to the global wild wild cherry earth arrives on al-jazeera. we understand the differences and similarities of cultures across the wound so no matter how you take a. 0 bring you the news and current affairs that matter. to
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0. these are the top stories on al-jazeera after 3 weeks of witness and expert testimony jury deliberations have begun in the trial of a former minneapolis police officer accused of killing george floyd derek shaven is facing 2 matter charges and man's daughter thousands of protesters are outside the courthouse.

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