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tv   Inside Story  Al Jazeera  April 18, 2021 8:30pm-9:00pm +03

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the conditions of the same if i hear someone is coming to passion char i would told them not to come here. for their rowing or who fled me on my life remains in secure their homeland is now ruled by the military john tout their flat and their face on an increasingly precarious existence in the land they have sought refuge country charge 3 al-jazeera bangladesh. this is al jazeera and these are the headlines police in the czech republic want to talk to 2 russians linked to a 2014 explosion at an ammunitions definitely there the same men accused of poisoning sergei scruple and his daughter yulia in the u.k. and 2018. the u.s. says told russia or that they'll be consequences if kremlin critic alexina valmiki dies in prison the valley is in the 3rd week of a hunger strike and close to death according to his personal doctor mike hanna
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reports from washington d.c. jake sullivan appearing on a morning news shows saying that there would be consequences but not really giving very much details about it i also give you an exact quote in terms of the specific measures we would undertake we are looking at a variety of different costs that we would impose and i'm not going to telegraph that publicly at this point i will communicated directly to russia said the national security adviser so it's basically a warning shot across the bows no real details whatsoever about what the consequences should be should another leader in prison but certainly it's a diplomatic step by the united states that is likely to only increase the frayed relations between the u.s. and russia. hospitals across south asia are at breaking point some say more severe wave of covert 19 sweeps across the region india is reporting the world's highest number of new infections within 261000 in just 24 hours egyptian
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local media are reporting at least 16 people having killed in a train derailment and 100 others have been injured that happened as the train was traveling near the city of north of cairo. a massive fire in the south african city of cape town has ravaged large parts of table mountain far as often breakouts in this part of south africa during the periods of traits. at least 70 people have been killed in violence in yemen smart and thais province's government forces say a battle for control of the all rich regions has intensified securing the past 24 hours well those are the headlines stay with us an al-jazeera inside story is next .
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well russia could go to war against ukraine moscow masses its troops along the border what's prompted the escalation how much of a threat is it to ukraine's unity this is inside story. alone welcome to the show i'm sami's a than concerns are growing of a possible war between russia and ukraine the 2 have been in dispute since 2014 when russia and next crimea and backed separatists fighting government troops in eastern ukraine there had been a relative stalemate in fighting cease fires and violations of cease fires but the
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situation is now on the brink of a major escalation kiev has expelled the russian diplomat in response to a similar move by moscow and russian president vladimir putin is beefing up his nation's naval presence in the black sea the international community is alarmed. since the start of the year there's been more fighting in eastern ukraine then last month russia deployed its largest military buildup near ukraine's border since 2014 nato warned russia it won't leave kiev on its own and urged moscow to withdraw its troops u.s. president joe biden called on vladimir putin to deescalate tension he's proposed a summit with the russian president and european leaders have also demanded russian forces a pullback from the border ukraine's the the held talks with the french president and german chancellor in paris on friday under serious child stratford reports from kiev on people's fears. ukrainian soldiers on the front line on the highest level
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of alert since the signing of an often violated cease fire agreement with pro russian separatists 7 years ago russia says its deployment of an estimated 100000 soldiers and heavy weaponry to areas near the border with ukraine poses no threat ukrainian military say they are preparing for the worst. was over because i was mobilized and came back to the front line i believe this is a crucial moment to defend my country world leaders and nato have urged moscow to pull back its forces most of these houses were destroyed in fighting in 2015 around a 1000000 people live in a 10 kilometer wide so-called contact zone the stretches on both sides across the front line. oxana says she fled with her son genya from separatist controlled areas 2 years ago yet that's true. i have lived here since 2019 i used to live in
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our lives but i had to flee because of my political views it has been quiet days but this is the 2nd night in a row my cell wakes in the middle of the night screaming there is similar devastation in pro russia separatists control the areas. they have been shooting recently everyone waits but nobody knows how the negotiations will end. the leaders of ukraine russia germany and france the so-called normandy format have repeatedly failed to find a political solution to the conflict. crain refuses russia's demand that it talk directly to pro moscow separatist leaders russia refuses to withdraw from crimea but she documented in 2014. and lists a political deadlock on many levels remain the breakdown in the current ceasefire was fairly predictable because the sides were negotiating in good faith it's not
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negotiating in good faith in probably in about october and they've reached the point where they were instead of trying to find common ground they were deliberately putting forth proposals that they knew would annoy the other side or that they knew would be nonstarters and once that starts to happen then you know that the breakdown of the ceasefire is only a small it's only a matter of time russia calls it a military exercise ukraine says it is a dangerous provocation after 7 years of failed peace negotiations the un says almost 3 and a half 1000000 people are an urgent need of humanitarian assistance and protection in eastern ukraine. but al jazeera. let's bring in our guests into the show we have joining us from moscow victor all over church a political analyst and leader of the center for actual politics in care of me when esky associate professor of sociology at the national university of kiev more
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cademy and then all. these and a professor of international relations at the university of southeast norway welcome to the show if i could start with mikhail oh so why did the ceasefire collapse in eastern ukraine. well i think that's a question perhaps too. to those that have invaded the country and that's perhaps more a question. to the russian side the russian side is been provoking this this. various types of less collations a known as glacial ceasefires not ceasefires last 7 years the reality is that crane in 2014 lost a grand total of 70 percent of its territory so that actually not very much 7 percent being lost including the crimea so in other words this is not exactly a huge amount of territory but nevertheless it is a thorn in ingrain side constantly because territory has been lost and has been lost due to aggression from the russian side so why are the why why are the
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continuing through to 2 attack where the continuing to try to move forward after there have been i mean the great insight in the new president selenski has actually come out and said that it's very simple but the training site is going to stop shooting unless being shot at so the provocations are coming from outside i can question is probably better to arrest. let's take a question then to big to moscow what prompted the russian military buildup that we suddenly the world was kind of surprised to see so many russian forces and tanks massing at the border victor well the situation in the southeastern ukraine has to be looked at from the point of view of rivalry in russian american relations and we have seen that joseph biden and those close to him and his foreign policy. block warned and he had stated on numerous occasions during the election campaign
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last year that if their candidates was going to win the american approach to russia would be much tougher than time suppose the time for the station approach that they're going to use our various new instruments to pressure russia on various fronts and after biden won our our the election last year and became us president he started to use a new study shows started to implement those. implemented that course towards russia sanctions have been expanded our rhetoric doors russia has been significantly hardened and also kiev has been has also toughened its bought its rhetoric towards moscow and towards elements
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sympathetic to russia within ukraine and has also taken action against more action against those elements for example the closing of several t.v. channels that were more sympathetic towards russia actions against the. official politician sympathetic to moscow and some other politicians and so our moscow easy is viewing this as a pressure. point and is. that one of your on a on the specific level it's you as ok. to pressure on the ukraine as a bargaining chip ok i can see there that is shaking his head i'll give you 15 seconds to come back in on some of that before we we move on to glenn ok i very quickly i mean at the end of the day you create is not a bargaining chip ukraine is a country and it's very nice that you know president putin and psychoanalysts can
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probably have a field day with russian president thinks in terms of you know ukraine or excuse me russian u.s. rivalry that's all very fine and dandy but it's not u.s. soldiers that are dying on the ground in front and ukrainian soldiers they are defending their own country and this is nothing to do in fact i mean except we're you know in strange minds with geo politics this does everything to do with a a very real war that is happening in a very real country that has nothing to do with you know wouldn't it be a fairy tale it wouldn't be fair though to say that ukraine is caught in the geopolitics of relations between the u.s. and russia you do recognize that don't to all of course it's caught in not of course it's got a knot in its current crop when i think that it's i mean it's the thing that i'm trying to get away from is the narrative that is being proposed by the kremlin which basically says that screening doesn't matter as such it's simply a territory over over which supposedly the more us and russia are going to be ok
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and that that's the wrong way if you're going i made your point maybe out of fairness let me give also 15 seconds to victor if he wants to pick up on anything before i move on to glenn. well there is no question that the situation that here developed in the u.k. in the best 70 years has been bowler's unfortunate and very tragic. for our for the country and for those those that live in on the territories controlled by kiev and in that area there is that controlled by the so-called people's republics right in the southeast however ukraine is a matter of. of negotiation and of rivalry between them leisure powers between the us and i'm sure there is simply a fact there are. yes there is there the simply a fact that key of course to take into account and thus the into account in the
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right policy deliberations and since we're talking about geopolitics between countries glenn i want to ask you to what extent is the whole issue of nato membership playing out here i think it was 3 days after joe biden took office there was some talk from the ukrainian side from the ukrainian president in fact about moving forward with the process of joining nato is this washers way of saying nato membership is a red line. now definitely i think you are going to think we should all be empathetic about the difficult situation ukraine is in but as to be point out that this is that mostly about nato expansion and one also have to point out that it's important to note that ukraine actually began emboldened by the u.s. to mobilize its troops 2 wars to contact one was done by before russia then responded by mobilizing its troops so russia has been very clear therefore that it would intervene if it's attacked and the reason yes nato it also it has
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a domestic component of course that is russia country really just stand by it's a little impossible if it's competitor it's in eastern ukraine are mowed down by decreeing an army but i merely this is about nato is is the geo political problem that was cost 7 years ago and nato expansionism into ukraine is deemed to be an existential threat to russia so this is the source of the conflict that is russia not nato refuses to hold its expansion and pursue neutral turn it is for countries along the russian borders while you criminal role in russia said like clear red line against further expansion which it intends to uphold but previously mentioned out there was no political solutions. but the minsk agreement was the mutual agreement for a political settlement and this agreement did entails that. that government and she would negotiate directly with us or it isn't don't bust and pursue deep
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constitutional reforms to do centralized power and ground don't buy us a certain degree of autonomy the problem of course for ukraine is if they do it they're going to have a lot of internal divisions but ukrainian nationalists will not accept this and furthermore an autonomous don't bus could block nato expansionism not this is the main reason why both ukraine and the u.s. has been signaling that they do not intend to other don't like ations other to minsk agreement so i think all of this very much responds to the issue of nato expansion i can see me i think is shaking his head again let me give you a chance to come back. i'm quite frankly shocked by by by what was one minor reasonably good fuck you but look nato expansion into ukraine was monster an issue and was never even a possibility until 2014 when russia attacked grant when that is when i mean the poll results are very very clear the political situation is very very clear
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nato was never ever on the on the agenda and its session today that was never on the agenda until such time as russia decided to attack you print so to now say that somehow ukraine is at fault for going for actively pursuing major membership i mean what exactly would would would be the logical alternative when you are attacked when your when your territory is taken away by a country that supposedly was a guarantor of peace when ukraine gave up the nuclear weapons under the would have a memorandum supposedly russia was supposed to guarantee ukraine's borders here russia's coming in and violating those borders and the only way that ukraine is going to going to be able to defend itself is through nato but what is very important is that in fact what i call this just recently said it is in fact just basically not true ukraine that not mobilize any troops and nor is it in any way
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shape or form possible 'd the ukraine would attack russia this is a narrative that is being propagated by the kremlin at this point that is completely untrue ukraine has a grand total army of 250000 troops russia has over a 1000000 people in under arms a 1000000 men a 1000000 troops there is no possible way that ukraine is going to be attacking russia russia may be attacking you cringe and maybe taking more territory and that of course is in russia's interest because of this point the annexation of crimea is obviously very much untenable because of the problem is a problem of recent touches that we're running out of time we do have all the points to cover let me give glenn i can see glenn wants to get in on this but in 15 seconds. yes well in 2008 nato said that the ukraine would eventually become a member and this is been a thorn in the side ever since now my point is simply if if nato expansionism is
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really off the table why doesn't pay to go out and put this in writing and say to russia this would definitely calm down the conflict and it would open up for alternatives all right ok let me let me get 15 seconds back to you mikhail o. before we go once again to moscow with victor. look i'm going to be very brief at the end of the day there's a $100000.00 troops that are being pressed troops that are being massed on the borders of ukraine this in fact troops if they are going to be invading ukraine will not be in beating the past because. the area that is being turned meet it it is actually depressed reach there's very little interest in actually it right however there is an interest obviously if you medical interest and in a very clear economic interest creating a land bridge crimea and that means cutting off grain from the black sea ok that has now that's interesting obviously that but it's nothing to do with with nato or
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anything else that's simply russian expansionism in and you're ok you made your point let me ask victor what is the bottom line of this phase of the escalation do you think russia wants to to go to war with ukraine directly and divert me and threw into a war with ukraine. look despite kiev success theory shows ukraine is not to become a need to member and one of the uses for that is that if he has an active duty to oil dispute with one of its neighbors in this case with russia and to additionally need to does not accept new members that have active conflicts with their neighbors because in that case neither could be. forced to intervene there actually and that's not something that washington and so you think the analysts support the idea that and moscow one of the us collated or put its troops at the border to make this an issue to block ukraine ever from thinking or being able to
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join nato thinking exactly one of the reasons for russia intervening in 2014 was there are after you know quite rich the former ukrainian president was deposed in the core and they much more pro western government came to power in kiev moscow was. and that the new government there knew more progress than government could see need a membership and took action in part to prevent that moscow she is neither our expansion as a strategic threat yet it took their act action to prevent that from the need to from expanding to ukraine and we see that play out throughout the last 7 years so that the threat of need to expansion to ukraine that the reactor expansion is not has been sort of moved back at the same time moscow is seeking to use its presence in ukraine as borders as a show of force as
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a shore of its force possible force projection and of its capabilities at the same time what my ukrainian tell you there's been seeing what he said about the land that the be in the crimea and the rest of russia that that is something that russia simply does not care for these sources to sustain even if russia would undertake that action there is the national economy would not be able to sustain those $32.00 is measure of new territory is within the russia although that's not something that russia would seek to do our other than other than some are put in loyalist simply making a stark and allowed state or is let's not get bogged down too much into some minutia of particular movements on the ground i want to try and maybe broaden the discussion out with the hi-lo if i may and ask about what this whole cycle means of
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the cycle of tension. and escalation means for polarization within ukraine. well in fact one of the things that we've seen over the last 7 years is that unification. has not been a polarization and actually much more about unification i want to do want to make one more point in one last point about that they don't think are just so that we realize i mean it's not just a question of russia reacting to nato expansion ukraine is a sovereign country ukraine has been attacked it's 7 percent of its territory has been taken away he illegal it has a right to defend itself defending itself means through alliance this is a logical step this is not a question of you know someone is attacking russia no one's attacking russia russia has attacked and ukraine is defending itself that in fact is a narrative that has. very much united the printing population well i think i'm
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citing a jump in there the move which the ukrainian president then ski made to close the t.v. station of the pro russian on iraq has he seen victor medved choke won't move. alienate at least those ethnic russians in ukraine or ukrainians of ethnic russian origin that is a polarization thought not. first of all ethnic russians in ukraine according to the friend of the previous and the very reason now that the now that the crimea has been annexed and is marked down in order to create enough of the eastern region the bottom of the genders part of ukraine so that we understand ethnic russians in ukraine make up less than 5 percent population so alienating a group of less than 5 percent of the population may be of course problematic from the point of view of humanity humanitarian pressure but we need to understand 95 percent of the population is in support of ukrainian unity and sees russia as an
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aggressor with respect to the 3 channel yes it's true but in fact those 3 channels were outlets for basically money laundering of illegal activities by this like victim of the q who in fact is a basically a family member of what you would want is laundering money from illegal activities within ukraine including financing separateness on the eastern front so i mean it's really problematic in respect of these $3.00 channels yes there is an issue those 3 channels were were were closed there were no protests. unlike various other things in a conference the streets recently the training of those channels were in fact very very low they were broadcasting progress and propaganda and it wasn't being supported by by the by the ukrainian population so i mean at the end of the day has created more of a ruckus in the kremlin than it has been doing you know i could see glenn that wants to get in on this let me bring you in for some perspective i think we've got
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about a minute left. you know i would point out that if ukraine indeed was this united the selenski would not continue to live here the right there is the ukrainian nationalist because if you create would actually live up to its obligations under the minsk agreement and talk to. us you would very quickly see a green nationalist march through keep so there is a strong limited what can actually be done so also what should be confused there with ethnic russians are supposed to russian speakers as well and the overall. i wouldn't disagree that the do the conflicts obviously pushed greater unity in ukraine in terms of standing up for their sovereignty. but to suggest that suddenly everyone is on the same page. and to russia. down to russian policies i definitely would not agree with every poll indicates this is well that is something that everyone does not support you know and against russia ok i'm afraid we are out of
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time so we are going to end it then let's thank our guests very much victor leverage me hi-lo we need ski and glenn decent and thank you to 4 g. you can see the show again any time by visiting our website al-jazeera dot com for further discussion head over to our facebook page that's facebook dot com forward slash a.j. inside story can also join the conversation on twitter our handle there is at a.j. inside story from me sam is a then and the whole team here for now goodbye. from
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the al-jazeera london broil. to people in thoughtful conversation i can be in my culture i can still raise my voice against bigotry aki with no host and no limitations the pandemic actually exposed to injustice in our societies too as my colleague and has had in hospitality we have protected these men who are violent and bully studio to be unscripted on al-jazeera. i mean like a vase in the south of india to find out how a tiny box in this cave brought an extensive mining operation to a standstill coronavirus how he wept across the world with devastating impact and it's widely believed to be connected to the legal wildlife trade here in vietnam we did that a rescue center for some of the world's most threatened animal and joining the call for an end to the global wildlife very early thrive on al-jazeera this is one of
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them down doing that not all revolutions in all make. britain has to meet the c o 2 emissions targets electric cars and new mitchum in motion they need to be mindful when people are just talking about cars and that's. the world of business and commerce is driving the energy transition it's the promise of clean energy and illusion the dumpsite of green energy. on al-jazeera. for did run meters and remotely enough families to pain is unbearable 4 of their relatives were killed last week during a military operation ordered by the vin. this when government security forces accused them of being part of a colombian rebel group and said they died in combat. the neighbors and family members insist they were innocent taken from their homes and executed under pressure of business well as the defense minister vladimir by bremer said the armed
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forces were to defend their country from the regular groups but added that human rights needed to be respected and that the events at the border would be investigated. this is al jazeera. i know that i'm here with the al jazeera news our live from doha coming up in the next 60 minutes the czech republic says 2 russians charged with a poisoning that sank in the u.k. behind a 2014 explosion at a check on step. warnings of consequences from the u.s. about the health of kremlin critic alexy russia.

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